Stat Analysis

Advanced analytics on player and team performance

Stat Analysis

Guest Column: Going for Two

One of the most debated decisions in football is when to go for a two-point conversion. But is it possible that coaches don't go for the two-pointer enough? That's the theory of Christopher Moses.

Maroon Zone vs. Scarlet Zone

In the final TMQ, Gregg Easterbrook introduced the idea of The Maroon Zone, the area between the 30 and 40-yard lines that often is the barrier between punting and scoring. Or is it? We compare performance all over the field to winning and scoring and discover an even more important new area: The Scarlet Zone.

Introducing Points Above Replacement

Since Football Outsiders launched, we've compared players to the league average on a play-by-play basis. But what about the value of a player like Ricky Williams who runs near league-average but with amazing durability? Borrowing from baseball analysts, we introduce a stat that combines quality with quantity - and as an added bonus, we've translated it into actual points. Plus, the first 2003 player rankings and directional rushing stats.

1 comment, Last at 17 Nov 2005, 2:14pm by ernie cohen

How Many Points is a Turnover Worth?

How many points should the offense expect to score, depending on their field position? The answers within, including discussion of The Most Important Thing We've Learned So Far (TM) and the dreaded question of "field goal or go for it?" Plus, graphs galore. Don't miss the Happy Turnover Smile-Time Hour!

4 comments, Last at 08 Nov 2011, 2:09pm by bravehoptoad

Press Check: Second Down Rushes After First Down Incompletes

In today's Tuesday Morning Quarterback column on ESPN.com, Gregg Easterbrook introduces the Immutable Law of "Clang on First Bars Run on Second." Is he right? A look at the 2002 data says it ain't necessarily so.

Press Check: 100-Yard Rushers and Wins

Two NFL writers say that Week 2 proved that rushing is the key to victory. We say that one week does not a season make.

Falling Short of the Stick

How angry do you get when the coach of your favorite team calls an 8-yard pass on 3rd-and-9? Ever wonder how often your team does that? We've actually found a stat where Arizona is the best team in the NFL...

Quarterbacks and Favorite Receivers

Some teams showed completely different pass offenses with two different quarterbacks in 2002. If one of those quarterbacks is now out of the picture, what does that mean for those teams and their offensive efficiency... not to mention your fantasy draft? (No, Vick is not included, since the only WR that had a different value with Doug Johnson was Shawn Jefferson, no longer in Atlanta.)

Pythagoras Grades the Coaches

Which coaches win the close ones? We rank the last 20 years of coaches based on the ability to win more games than expected based on point differential. The top coaches have something unexpected in common... and the coach at the bottom is even more surprising.

3 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2007, 2:45am by Len

Do 2003 Schedule Changes Affect Fantasy Football Value?

Which players face easier or harder fantasy schedules this year? Do schedule changes year to year affect fantasy value more than real value, or vice versa?