Stat Analysis

Drew Brees continues to dominate passing plus-minus.

Our look at last season's interception luck tells us that Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr are likely to throw more picks this season, while Baker Mayfield and Tom Brady (yes, Tom Brady) should throw fewer.

In the second half of our series on NFL injuries in 2018, we break things down by position groups. Injuries to quarterbacks, running backs, and linebackers are down. Injuries are way up everywhere else, and in the defensive backfield, they are unprecedented.

Our first look at injury data from the 2018 season reveals some plain truths: injuries are on the rise; Washington and Jacksonville had historically bad luck on offense last year; and no team we've ever analyzed has suffered more injuries on defense than last year's Buccaneers.

At Football Outsiders, we measure receivers based on what they do with the targets they get -- but what happens when you look at a receiver's ability to generate targets in the first place? And what does it tell us about Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett?

The annual review of the best values in free agency has harsh words for John Lynch and high praise for some Fitzmagic.

The numbers are clear: deep throws on third-and-long are more effective than checkdowns. So why are coaches so reluctant to call for the long bomb?

Our statistical projections for edge rushers in this year's draft agree with the consensus that the talent pool at the position is deep, but are surprisingly pessimistic about Ohio State's Nick Bosa, expected to be the first pass-rusher off the board Thursday night. Who has the best statistical profile? That's a surprise too.

Sometimes statistical projections simply reinforce common consensus -- and sometimes they knock that consensus on its ear. Welcome to BackCAST's projections for 2019 running backs, where a likely Day 3 pick leads the way, and the scouts' favorites fare quite poorly.

The oldest team in the league ended up winning it all last year, but 2018 saw a significant breakdown in the relationship between age and success.