Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

2017 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 10/21/17

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Ohio State 6-1 6.1 (0.1) 99.6% 29.2 1 44.0 2 15.2 7 0.4 37 1 0
Alabama 8-0 7.6 (-0.4) 99.3% 27.2 2 37.8 13 11.1 1 0.5 25 2 0
Penn State 7-0 6.5 (-0.5) 97.5% 22.1 3 38.4 10 15.9 9 -0.4 97 3 0
Georgia 7-0 6.7 (-0.3) 96.9% 21.1 4 36.3 19 16.0 10 0.8 1 5 1
Washington 6-1 6.3 (0.3) 96.8% 21.0 5 34.0 30 12.4 2 -0.6 109 7 2
TCU 7-0 6.2 (-0.8) 96.1% 20.0 6 35.5 23 16.2 11 0.7 13 13 7
Wisconsin 7-0 6.8 (-0.2) 95.8% 19.7 7 34.8 26 15.0 6 -0.1 77 6 -1
Oklahoma State 6-1 6.1 (0.1) 95.6% 19.4 8 42.9 4 23.0 35 -0.5 102 4 -4
Central Florida 6-0 5.9 (-0.1) 95.1% 18.8 9 43.7 3 25.4 49 0.5 26 9 0
Notre Dame 6-1 6.1 (0.1) 94.9% 18.7 10 37.9 12 19.1 18 -0.1 76 12 2
Miami-FL 6-0 5.3 (-0.7) 94.1% 17.9 11 38.4 9 21.0 24 0.5 19 11 0
Auburn 6-2 6.6 (0.6) 94.1% 17.9 12 32.4 37 14.8 5 0.3 42 14 2
Clemson 6-1 6.3 (0.3) 94.0% 17.9 13 32.7 35 14.1 4 -0.8 124 10 -3
Oklahoma 6-1 6.0 (0.0) 92.1% 16.3 14 46.8 1 30.1 85 -0.4 96 8 -6
South Florida 7-0 6.7 (-0.3) 89.8% 14.8 15 33.0 33 18.4 16 0.3 43 18 3
Stanford 5-2 5.5 (0.5) 89.4% 14.6 16 40.2 6 26.4 54 0.8 2 15 -1
Virginia Tech 6-1 5.7 (-0.3) 87.7% 13.7 17 29.0 59 15.6 8 0.3 47 19 2
Washington State 7-1 6.0 (-1.0) 86.5% 13.1 18 29.7 52 16.5 12 -0.1 79 22 4
Mississippi State 5-2 5.0 (0.0) 86.2% 12.9 19 30.0 51 17.9 15 0.8 3 21 2
Michigan State 6-1 5.4 (-0.6) 85.1% 12.4 20 25.6 90 13.4 3 0.2 57 20 0
NC State 6-1 5.9 (-0.1) 80.0% 10.3 21 37.1 16 26.2 53 -0.5 103 23 2
Southern Miss 5-2 5.4 (0.4) 78.7% 9.8 22 29.4 54 19.2 19 -0.3 93 31 9
Georgia Tech 4-2 4.4 (0.4) 77.4% 9.4 23 33.4 31 24.1 43 0.1 63 27 4
Iowa State 5-2 5.0 (0.0) 77.2% 9.3 24 30.7 45 21.8 29 0.4 40 28 4
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Fresno State 5-2 4.9 (-0.1) 76.9% 9.2 25 30.6 46 21.7 28 0.3 44 60 35
USC 6-2 5.9 (-0.1) 76.5% 9.1 26 34.8 27 26.0 51 0.3 50 17 -9
Michigan 5-2 4.8 (-0.2) 76.3% 9.0 27 26.2 85 17.5 14 0.3 45 16 -11
Louisville 5-3 5.2 (0.2) 75.7% 8.8 28 38.8 8 30.4 89 0.4 33 24 -4
LSU 6-2 5.3 (-0.7) 75.3% 8.7 29 30.2 49 21.3 26 -0.2 84 26 -3
West Virginia 5-2 5.0 (0.0) 75.2% 8.6 30 41.0 5 32.1 102 -0.3 88 37 7
Toledo 6-1 5.4 (-0.6) 75.1% 8.6 31 36.2 21 27.3 63 -0.2 86 47 16
Florida Atlantic 4-3 4.6 (0.6) 73.2% 8.0 32 36.8 17 29.6 78 0.8 5 61 29
Ohio 6-2 5.7 (-0.3) 73.0% 7.9 33 31.3 41 23.9 41 0.5 20 54 21
Wake Forest 4-3 4.0 (0.0) 71.4% 7.4 34 28.5 61 20.7 23 -0.4 99 29 -5
Arkansas State 4-2 4.2 (0.2) 71.2% 7.3 35 34.6 28 27.7 67 0.4 38 51 16
Colorado State 6-2 5.5 (-0.5) 70.5% 7.1 36 36.4 18 29.9 81 0.7 12 35 -1
Arizona 5-2 5.0 (0.0) 70.0% 7.0 37 37.4 15 29.7 79 -0.7 115 36 -1
SMU 5-2 4.7 (-0.3) 69.5% 6.9 38 38.1 11 31.3 95 0.1 64 42 4
Texas Tech 4-3 4.4 (0.4) 69.1% 6.7 39 37.6 14 30.0 83 -0.8 125 32 -7
Florida State 2-4 2.5 (0.5) 69.1% 6.7 40 28.3 64 22.0 31 0.5 31 25 -15
Utah 4-3 4.4 (0.4) 67.0% 6.1 41 28.5 62 23.0 36 0.7 11 33 -8
Northern Illinois 5-2 5.1 (0.1) 66.5% 6.0 42 23.5 105 16.7 13 -0.9 127 50 8
Appalachian State 5-2 4.7 (-0.3) 66.4% 5.9 43 30.5 47 23.8 40 -0.7 114 39 -4
UTSA 4-2 4.1 (0.1) 65.8% 5.8 44 30.3 48 25.3 47 0.7 6 45 1
Iowa 4-3 4.1 (0.1) 65.5% 5.7 45 25.6 91 20.5 22 0.5 23 38 -7
Marshall 6-1 4.9 (-1.1) 64.2% 5.3 46 24.2 102 18.6 17 -0.3 91 72 26
Boise State 5-2 4.6 (-0.4) 62.8% 4.9 47 25.5 94 21.3 27 0.7 10 41 -6
Purdue 3-4 3.8 (0.8) 62.4% 4.8 48 27.8 69 22.9 34 -0.1 74 55 7
UCLA 4-3 4.1 (0.1) 61.9% 4.7 49 39.5 7 34.9 110 0.1 66 58 9
Houston 4-3 3.9 (-0.1) 61.2% 4.5 50 29.1 56 24.9 46 0.3 46 43 -7
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Oregon 4-4 4.7 (0.7) 61.1% 4.4 51 32.7 36 27.5 65 -0.8 122 30 -21
Indiana 3-4 3.5 (0.5) 60.8% 4.4 52 23.5 106 19.9 20 0.7 8 44 -8
Virginia 5-2 4.8 (-0.2) 60.4% 4.3 53 27.7 71 23.4 37 0.0 71 34 -19
Troy 5-2 4.2 (-0.8) 59.6% 4.0 54 25.3 95 20.5 21 -0.8 117 70 16
Memphis 6-1 4.5 (-1.5) 59.0% 3.9 55 36.3 20 32.8 106 0.4 36 49 -6
Western Michigan 5-3 4.6 (-0.4) 58.5% 3.7 56 29.0 58 25.7 50 0.5 32 64 8
Texas 3-4 3.1 (0.1) 58.2% 3.7 57 27.6 72 24.1 42 0.1 60 40 -17
Kansas State 3-4 3.6 (0.6) 57.6% 3.5 58 31.1 44 28.3 74 0.7 7 46 -12
Florida 3-3 3.2 (0.2) 57.0% 3.3 59 26.5 81 23.7 38 0.5 24 48 -11
Texas A&M 5-2 3.9 (-1.1) 55.1% 2.8 60 29.1 57 27.0 61 0.7 9 53 -7
Navy 5-2 4.2 (-0.8) 54.4% 2.6 61 35.1 24 31.9 100 -0.6 106 57 -4
Minnesota 4-3 4.0 (0.0) 53.0% 2.3 62 23.2 107 21.0 25 0.1 67 62 0
South Carolina 5-2 4.2 (-0.8) 52.6% 2.2 63 26.4 82 23.8 39 -0.5 100 63 0
Miami-OH 3-5 5.4 (2.4) 50.7% 1.7 64 25.7 89 24.4 44 0.4 39 79 15
Eastern Michigan 2-5 4.2 (2.2) 50.0% 1.5 65 24.7 97 22.7 32 -0.5 101 73 8
Syracuse 4-4 3.4 (-0.6) 49.4% 1.3 66 27.4 74 26.9 59 0.8 4 59 -7
North Texas 4-3 3.7 (-0.3) 48.4% 1.1 67 35.8 22 35.4 113 0.7 14 65 -2
Army 6-2 4.0 (-2.0) 47.7% 0.9 68 32.9 34 32.2 103 0.1 62 71 3
Northwestern 4-3 3.4 (-0.6) 45.4% 0.3 69 25.6 92 25.3 48 0.0 72 69 0
Tulane 3-4 3.5 (0.5) 44.3% 0.0 70 31.2 42 31.7 98 0.5 28 78 8
Utah State 4-4 3.8 (-0.2) 44.2% -0.1 71 26.3 83 27.0 60 0.6 17 89 18
San Diego State 6-2 3.6 (-2.4) 43.9% -0.1 72 25.5 93 26.1 52 0.4 35 52 -20
Nebraska 3-4 3.4 (0.4) 43.8% -0.2 73 27.6 73 27.6 66 -0.2 81 74 1
New Mexico 3-4 3.6 (0.6) 43.7% -0.2 74 29.5 53 30.1 84 0.4 34 84 10
New Mexico State 3-4 4.0 (1.0) 42.8% -0.4 75 31.3 40 30.9 94 -0.8 121 80 5
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
Ole Miss 3-4 3.6 (0.6) 42.8% -0.4 76 34.6 29 35.2 111 0.2 58 56 -20
Western Kentucky 5-2 4.1 (-0.9) 42.5% -0.5 77 26.7 78 27.5 64 0.2 53 76 -1
Missouri 2-5 2.9 (0.9) 41.2% -0.9 78 34.8 25 36.1 118 0.5 30 95 17
Duke 4-4 3.6 (-0.4) 40.9% -0.9 79 25.9 88 26.5 55 -0.4 95 75 -4
Arizona State 4-3 2.8 (-1.2) 40.4% -1.1 80 29.3 55 30.6 91 0.2 59 81 1
UAB 4-3 4.4 (0.4) 39.1% -1.4 81 26.6 79 27.8 69 -0.2 83 102 21
Rutgers 3-4 3.1 (0.1) 37.4% -1.9 82 20.7 117 22.8 33 0.2 54 90 8
Wyoming 4-3 3.3 (-0.7) 37.3% -1.9 83 19.7 121 21.8 30 0.2 56 82 -1
Air Force 3-4 2.8 (-0.2) 36.0% -2.3 84 32.2 38 34.6 109 0.1 65 85 1
Louisiana Tech 3-4 3.3 (0.3) 35.2% -2.5 85 27.9 68 30.4 87 -0.1 73 92 7
Buffalo 3-5 3.6 (0.6) 35.2% -2.5 86 26.3 84 28.0 73 -0.8 120 91 5
Colorado 4-4 3.6 (-0.4) 34.7% -2.7 87 26.8 77 30.0 82 0.5 21 68 -19
South Alabama 3-4 3.0 (0.0) 33.8% -2.9 88 24.4 101 27.9 70 0.7 16 101 13
Vanderbilt 3-4 2.8 (-0.2) 33.4% -3.0 89 24.5 99 26.7 56 -0.9 130 86 -3
Arkansas 2-5 2.7 (0.7) 32.9% -3.2 90 27.7 70 30.3 86 -0.6 108 67 -23
Kentucky 5-2 2.7 (-2.3) 31.0% -3.7 91 24.5 98 28.7 75 0.5 27 77 -14
Boston College 4-4 2.7 (-1.3) 29.8% -4.1 92 22.8 109 26.8 58 -0.1 75 104 12
Maryland 3-4 3.0 (0.0) 29.5% -4.2 93 25.9 87 29.4 77 -0.7 112 83 -10
California 4-4 3.3 (-0.7) 29.4% -4.2 94 23.9 103 28.0 71 -0.2 80 87 -7
Tennessee 3-4 3.0 (0.0) 28.0% -4.6 95 20.0 120 24.9 45 0.3 48 66 -29
Massachusetts 1-6 2.7 (1.7) 27.4% -4.8 96 28.0 66 32.0 101 -0.9 128 115 19
Central Michigan 4-4 3.0 (-1.0) 27.3% -4.8 97 22.5 110 27.1 62 -0.3 92 111 14
Florida International 4-2 3.3 (-0.7) 26.2% -5.2 98 24.9 96 30.7 92 0.6 18 99 1
Temple 3-5 4.0 (1.0) 25.8% -5.4 99 21.7 114 26.8 57 -0.2 85 100 1
Middle Tennessee 3-5 3.2 (0.2) 25.0% -5.6 100 21.9 111 27.8 68 0.3 52 93 -7
Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Percentile)
S&P+
(Margin)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Prev. Wk Rk Chg
UNLV 2-5 3.2 (1.2) 23.4% -6.2 101 30.1 50 35.6 115 -0.7 113 97 -4
Pittsburgh 3-5 2.6 (-0.4) 22.8% -6.3 102 26.5 80 32.8 107 0.0 70 96 -6
North Carolina 1-7 2.1 (1.1) 21.7% -6.7 103 23.9 104 30.4 88 -0.2 82 88 -15
UL-Monroe 3-4 2.6 (-0.4) 20.7% -7.1 104 33.1 32 40.2 127 0.0 68 105 1
Idaho 2-5 2.8 (0.8) 17.9% -8.2 105 21.3 115 29.7 80 0.2 55 98 -7
Illinois 2-5 1.7 (-0.3) 17.5% -8.3 106 20.3 118 28.9 76 0.3 51 107 1
Coastal Carolina 1-6 2.6 (1.6) 17.4% -8.4 107 28.2 65 35.9 117 -0.6 110 114 7
Cincinnati 2-6 2.2 (0.2) 16.7% -8.7 108 22.9 108 30.8 93 -0.8 119 110 2
Baylor 0-7 1.5 (1.5) 16.4% -8.8 109 28.3 63 37.6 122 0.5 29 94 -15
Akron 4-4 2.6 (-1.4) 14.6% -9.6 110 21.8 112 30.6 90 -0.8 118 112 2
UL-Lafayette 3-4 2.4 (-0.6) 14.3% -9.7 111 28.0 67 37.3 121 -0.3 94 103 -8
Connecticut 3-4 2.4 (-0.6) 14.0% -9.9 112 28.6 60 38.2 123 -0.2 87 119 7
Hawaii 3-4 2.8 (-0.2) 13.7% -10.0 113 31.2 43 40.4 128 -0.8 123 113 0
Tulsa 2-6 2.3 (0.3) 13.3% -10.2 114 31.8 39 41.8 129 -0.3 90 108 -6
Georgia State 3-3 2.4 (-0.6) 12.7% -10.5 115 21.7 113 31.3 96 -0.9 129 106 -9
Ball State 2-5 2.6 (0.6) 10.8% -11.5 116 20.9 116 31.8 99 -0.6 105 109 -7
Nevada 1-7 2.1 (1.1) 10.6% -11.6 117 27.3 75 38.4 125 -0.6 104 121 4
Bowling Green 1-7 1.6 (0.6) 8.1% -13.2 118 24.5 100 38.2 124 0.5 22 118 0
Oregon State 1-6 1.0 (0.0) 7.7% -13.5 119 26.2 86 39.3 126 -0.4 98 117 -2
BYU 1-7 2.1 (1.1) 7.3% -13.8 120 14.4 129 28.0 72 -0.3 89 116 -4
Old Dominion 2-5 1.8 (-0.2) 6.5% -14.4 121 18.2 123 32.6 105 0.0 69 122 1
Texas State 1-6 1.1 (0.1) 4.6% -16.2 122 17.0 125 32.4 104 -0.8 116 123 1
Charlotte 1-7 0.9 (-0.1) 4.6% -16.2 123 20.2 119 35.6 114 -0.8 126 126 3
Kansas 1-6 1.1 (0.1) 4.3% -16.5 124 18.6 122 35.2 112 0.1 61 120 -4
San Jose State 1-7 1.5 (0.5) 4.2% -16.7 125 17.2 124 34.5 108 0.7 15 124 -1
East Carolina 2-6 1.3 (-0.7) 3.9% -17.1 126 26.8 76 44.3 130 0.3 41 128 2
Kent State 2-6 1.4 (-0.6) 2.1% -19.9 127 12.0 130 31.3 97 -0.6 107 125 -2
Rice 1-6 1.3 (0.3) 1.9% -20.3 128 16.4 126 36.6 120 -0.1 78 130 2
UTEP 0-7 0.6 (0.6) 1.8% -20.6 129 16.0 127 35.9 116 -0.7 111 129 0
Georgia Southern 0-6 0.1 (0.1) 1.5% -21.4 130 14.6 128 36.2 119 0.3 49 127 -3