Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

2018 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 12/1/18

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Last Week Chg
Alabama 13-0 12.7 (-0.3) 99.3% 29.7 1 46.4 2 16.1 8 -0.7 93 1 0
Clemson 13-0 12.3 (-0.7) 99.0% 27.9 2 41.6 7 12.8 1 -0.8 99 2 0
Georgia 11-2 11.1 (0.1) 98.4% 25.9 3 43.1 3 18.4 16 1.1 27 3 0
Oklahoma 12-1 11.5 (-0.5) 96.6% 22.1 4 52.2 1 31.1 89 1.1 32 4 0
Michigan 10-2 10.3 (0.3) 96.0% 21.3 5 35.2 24 14.7 5 0.8 40 5 0
Notre Dame 12-0 10.3 (-1.7) 95.5% 20.6 6 34.7 26 14.4 4 0.3 62 6 0
Ohio State 12-1 10.2 (-1.8) 94.9% 19.8 7 42.8 4 23.8 37 0.9 35 8 1
Central Florida 12-0 10.6 (-1.4) 94.6% 19.6 8 41.8 5 23.8 36 1.5 15 7 -1
Washington 10-3 10.6 (0.6) 91.8% 17.0 9 33.2 34 14.3 3 -1.9 118 9 0
Fresno State 11-2 11.2 (0.2) 90.7% 16.2 10 33.0 37 16.1 9 -0.7 91 10 0
Penn State 9-3 8.9 (-0.1) 90.5% 16.1 11 32.4 39 16.6 11 0.3 61 11 0
Mississippi State 8-4 8.3 (0.3) 89.8% 15.6 12 31.8 41 14.7 6 -1.4 109 12 0
Appalachian State 10-2 10.0 (0.0) 89.6% 15.5 13 31.2 46 16.5 10 0.8 37 17 4
Florida 9-3 8.7 (-0.3) 89.0% 15.1 14 34.7 27 21.5 26 1.9 9 13 -1
LSU 9-3 8.1 (-0.9) 88.4% 14.8 15 30.2 53 18.0 14 2.7 2 15 0
Missouri 8-4 8.6 (0.6) 87.8% 14.4 16 37.5 15 23.9 38 0.8 38 16 0
Utah 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 87.7% 14.4 17 31.5 43 19.5 22 2.4 7 14 -3
Auburn 7-5 7.2 (0.2) 84.8% 12.8 18 31.1 47 19.0 18 0.7 43 18 0
Texas A&M 8-4 7.9 (-0.1) 84.5% 12.7 19 35.9 19 24.4 42 1.1 26 20 1
West Virginia 8-3 7.5 (-0.5) 84.4% 12.6 20 41.6 6 30.2 81 1.2 23 21 1
Utah State 10-2 9.0 (-1.0) 84.0% 12.4 21 35.8 20 23.6 34 0.2 66 22 1
Miami-FL 7-5 8.8 (1.8) 83.3% 12.1 22 29.0 67 15.9 7 -1.0 100 23 1
Memphis 8-5 9.4 (1.4) 83.1% 12.0 23 40.7 8 29.8 75 1.1 28 19 -4
Wisconsin 7-5 7.7 (0.7) 81.8% 11.4 24 37.9 13 24.6 43 -1.9 116 24 0
Washington State 10-2 9.6 (-0.4) 80.6% 10.9 25 37.6 14 26.5 50 -0.2 77 25 0
Iowa 8-4 8.1 (0.1) 80.3% 10.8 26 29.5 63 19.3 20 0.6 46 26 0
Stanford 8-4 7.7 (-0.3) 79.9% 10.6 27 35.4 22 26.5 51 1.7 10 27 0
Oklahoma State 6-6 7.3 (1.3) 79.3% 10.4 28 40.3 10 30.4 84 0.5 54 28 0
Boise State 10-3 8.8 (-1.2) 78.3% 10.0 29 36.0 18 24.0 39 -2.1 120 29 0
NC State 9-3 8.3 (-0.7) 78.2% 9.9 30 35.6 21 26.6 52 0.8 36 33 3
North Texas 9-3 9.8 (0.8) 77.8% 9.8 31 33.2 33 25.9 48 2.5 5 30 -1
Cincinnati 10-2 9.0 (-1.0) 75.8% 9.0 32 28.4 74 19.2 19 -0.2 76 31 -1
South Carolina 7-5 5.8 (-1.2) 75.1% 8.8 33 34.1 29 27.9 61 2.6 3 36 3
Temple 8-4 8.5 (0.5) 73.2% 8.1 34 29.6 61 20.4 24 -1.1 101 32 -2
Michigan State 7-5 6.9 (-0.1) 72.2% 7.7 35 21.0 114 13.7 2 0.5 53 34 -1
Texas 9-4 7.7 (-1.3) 71.8% 7.6 36 34.4 28 27.1 55 0.3 63 35 -1
Purdue 6-6 7.5 (1.5) 69.2% 6.7 37 36.6 16 30.2 82 0.3 60 38 1
San Diego State 7-5 7.6 (0.6) 69.0% 6.6 38 25.8 96 21.2 25 2.1 8 39 1
USC 5-7 7.0 (2.0) 68.8% 6.6 39 30.1 54 24.1 40 0.5 50 40 1
Kentucky 9-3 7.6 (-1.4) 68.8% 6.5 40 26.0 92 19.3 21 -0.1 74 41 1
Houston 8-4 8.1 (0.1) 67.8% 6.2 41 38.9 11 33.4 100 0.7 42 42 1
Virginia 7-5 7.9 (0.9) 67.7% 6.2 42 29.2 65 23.0 29 0.0 70 45 3
Syracuse 9-3 7.5 (-1.5) 67.3% 6.1 43 31.3 44 27.9 60 2.7 1 44 1
Texas Tech 5-7 6.2 (1.2) 67.3% 6.1 44 34.9 25 31.2 91 2.4 6 43 -1
Ohio 8-4 7.9 (-0.1) 65.8% 5.6 45 40.5 9 35.3 107 0.4 56 46 1
Troy 9-3 8.0 (-1.0) 65.0% 5.4 46 27.4 82 23.7 35 1.7 11 50 4
Oregon 8-4 7.3 (-0.7) 64.6% 5.2 47 35.4 23 29.0 69 -1.2 103 48 1
Toledo 7-5 6.6 (-0.4) 62.6% 4.6 48 36.2 17 32.7 95 1.1 31 51 3
Marshall 8-4 8.2 (0.2) 61.9% 4.4 49 22.9 110 17.8 13 -0.8 96 37 -12
Arkansas State 8-4 7.8 (-0.2) 61.4% 4.2 50 33.1 35 28.2 65 -0.7 92 52 2
Buffalo 10-3 9.3 (-0.7) 61.3% 4.2 51 33.6 32 27.3 57 -2.1 124 49 -2
Iowa State 8-4 7.3 (-0.7) 60.6% 4.0 52 28.0 77 23.3 31 -0.7 94 47 -5
UAB 10-3 9.0 (-1.0) 59.7% 3.7 53 26.2 89 22.0 27 -0.5 84 55 2
Arizona State 7-5 6.3 (-0.7) 58.8% 3.5 54 33.8 30 31.5 92 1.2 24 53 -1
Nebraska 4-8 6.7 (2.7) 57.9% 3.2 55 31.6 42 28.0 62 -0.3 81 57 2
BYU 6-6 7.1 (1.1) 57.5% 3.1 56 27.0 84 23.3 30 -0.6 90 56 0
TCU 6-6 6.7 (0.7) 57.2% 3.0 57 25.1 99 20.0 23 -2.1 121 60 3
Minnesota 6-6 5.9 (-0.1) 57.0% 2.9 58 26.4 88 24.6 44 1.2 25 59 1
Georgia Southern 9-3 7.8 (-1.2) 56.9% 2.9 59 30.5 51 29.2 71 1.6 14 61 2
Florida Atlantic 5-7 6.6 (1.6) 56.8% 2.9 60 32.7 38 28.1 63 -1.8 114 54 -6
Middle Tennessee 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 56.5% 2.8 61 27.5 81 25.3 46 0.6 44 58 -3
Miami-OH 6-6 5.9 (-0.1) 55.3% 2.4 62 27.7 80 26.9 54 1.6 12 62 0
Eastern Michigan 7-5 7.6 (0.6) 53.9% 2.0 63 26.8 86 23.5 33 -1.3 107 65 2
California 7-5 5.9 (-1.1) 52.4% 1.6 64 18.0 121 17.8 12 1.3 20 64 0
Northern Illinois 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 52.4% 1.6 65 20.8 115 18.1 15 -1.2 105 73 8
Duke 7-5 5.8 (-1.2) 51.8% 1.4 66 28.0 76 26.2 49 -0.4 83 67 1
Pittsburgh 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 51.8% 1.4 67 29.4 64 28.6 67 0.5 49 63 -4
Vanderbilt 6-6 6.9 (0.9) 51.8% 1.4 68 31.3 45 29.1 70 -0.8 98 66 -2
Virginia Tech 6-6 5.2 (-0.8) 51.5% 1.3 69 30.9 48 30.1 79 0.6 45 81 12
Ole Miss 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 51.5% 1.3 70 37.9 12 35.5 109 -1.1 102 68 -2
Boston College 7-5 6.2 (-0.8) 51.1% 1.2 71 25.9 95 22.8 28 -1.9 117 70 -1
South Florida 7-5 6.7 (-0.3) 50.5% 1.0 72 30.1 55 28.3 66 -0.8 97 69 -3
Maryland 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 49.5% 0.7 73 26.5 87 27.1 56 1.3 19 71 -2
Georgia Tech 7-5 5.8 (-1.2) 48.7% 0.5 74 33.7 31 34.7 105 1.5 16 72 -2
Arizona 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 48.2% 0.3 75 30.7 49 30.7 86 0.3 59 74 -1
Southern Miss 6-5 6.2 (0.2) 47.9% 0.3 76 19.3 120 18.8 17 -0.2 78 75 -1
Wake Forest 6-6 6.5 (0.5) 46.7% -0.1 77 30.0 56 30.0 78 -0.1 72 77 0
Wyoming 6-6 6.3 (0.3) 46.7% -0.1 78 24.1 104 24.7 45 0.4 55 76 -2
Nevada 7-5 6.4 (-0.6) 44.9% -0.6 79 28.5 72 29.0 68 -0.1 71 79 0
Northwestern 8-5 6.0 (-2.0) 43.3% -1.1 80 24.3 103 23.4 32 -2.1 122 78 -2
Florida State 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 42.2% -1.4 81 23.6 108 24.3 41 -0.8 95 84 3
Indiana 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 42.0% -1.5 82 28.7 71 30.7 85 0.5 51 82 0
Army 9-2 6.2 (-2.8) 41.6% -1.6 83 30.4 52 29.9 77 -2.1 123 83 0
UL-Lafayette 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 41.5% -1.6 84 33.1 36 36.1 111 1.4 17 80 -4
Baylor 6-6 6.1 (0.1) 40.7% -1.9 85 29.9 57 31.2 90 -0.5 89 86 1
Florida International 8-4 6.9 (-1.1) 40.6% -1.9 86 28.1 75 30.7 87 0.7 41 85 -1
Tennessee 5-7 4.3 (-0.7) 39.7% -2.2 87 29.6 62 32.9 96 1.1 30 87 0
Colorado 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 38.9% -2.4 88 26.2 90 28.1 64 -0.5 85 88 0
Air Force 5-7 6.1 (1.1) 37.8% -2.7 89 28.7 70 31.7 94 0.3 65 89 0
Tulane 6-6 5.7 (-0.3) 36.1% -3.3 90 23.7 107 27.5 59 0.6 48 90 0
UCLA 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 35.2% -3.5 91 29.1 66 34.0 103 1.3 18 91 0
Kansas State 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 33.5% -4.1 92 25.5 97 29.3 73 -0.2 75 92 0
Arkansas 2-10 3.4 (1.4) 32.7% -4.3 93 25.3 98 30.2 80 0.6 47 93 0
SMU 5-7 4.9 (-0.1) 32.4% -4.4 94 24.5 102 29.3 72 0.3 58 94 0
Louisiana Tech 7-5 6.1 (-0.9) 32.3% -4.5 95 23.2 109 25.8 47 -1.8 115 95 0
North Carolina 2-9 3.8 (1.8) 31.9% -4.6 96 28.9 69 33.0 98 -0.5 87 96 0
Western Michigan 7-5 6.4 (-0.6) 26.9% -6.3 97 31.9 40 34.8 106 -3.3 130 97 0
UL-Monroe 6-6 5.4 (-0.6) 24.6% -7.1 98 28.5 73 33.6 102 -2.0 119 98 0
Old Dominion 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 19.5% -9.2 99 27.4 83 37.4 114 0.8 39 99 0
Hawaii 8-5 7.2 (-0.8) 19.1% -9.3 100 30.6 50 39.4 118 -0.5 86 100 0
Tulsa 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 18.4% -9.6 101 23.7 106 31.6 93 -1.8 113 101 0
Navy 3-9 3.2 (0.2) 17.9% -9.8 102 29.7 59 40.0 120 0.5 52 102 0
Illinois 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 16.2% -10.6 103 27.8 78 40.0 121 1.6 13 103 0
New Mexico 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 13.7% -11.8 104 22.7 111 37.0 112 2.5 4 105 1
Texas State 3-9 6.1 (3.1) 13.4% -12.0 105 17.1 124 26.8 53 -2.3 125 106 1
Western Kentucky 3-9 4.2 (1.2) 13.0% -12.3 106 19.9 118 29.9 76 -2.3 126 107 1
East Carolina 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 12.0% -12.8 107 19.4 119 33.2 99 1.0 33 104 -3
Kansas 3-9 2.8 (-0.2) 11.7% -13.0 108 20.5 116 33.4 101 0.0 69 108 0
Louisville 2-10 1.7 (-0.3) 11.7% -13.0 109 22.6 112 35.6 110 0.0 68 109 0
UNLV 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 11.4% -13.1 110 29.8 58 40.0 119 -2.9 128 110 0
Colorado State 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 11.3% -13.2 111 26.2 91 38.2 115 -1.2 106 111 0
Charlotte 5-7 3.6 (-1.4) 10.7% -13.6 112 17.5 122 31.0 88 0.0 67 112 0
Massachusetts 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 10.3% -13.8 113 29.0 68 41.1 125 -1.7 112 113 0
Coastal Carolina 5-7 3.5 (-1.5) 9.8% -14.2 114 29.7 60 44.3 128 0.4 57 114 0
South Alabama 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 8.6% -15.0 115 25.9 93 40.7 124 -0.3 79 115 0
Rutgers 1-11 1.8 (0.8) 7.8% -15.6 116 13.4 127 30.2 83 1.3 22 117 1
Ball State 4-8 3.1 (-0.9) 7.6% -15.8 117 24.1 105 38.7 116 -1.2 104 118 1
Liberty 6-6 4.4 (-1.6) 7.0% -16.3 118 26.9 85 40.0 122 -3.1 129 119 1
Akron 4-8 2.9 (-1.1) 6.7% -16.6 119 13.3 128 29.7 74 -0.1 73 116 -3
Central Michigan 1-11 2.3 (1.3) 5.7% -17.5 120 10.3 130 27.5 58 -0.3 80 120 0
Kent State 2-10 2.9 (0.9) 5.7% -17.6 121 21.9 113 39.0 117 -0.5 88 121 0
Georgia State 2-10 2.8 (0.8) 5.5% -17.8 122 25.0 101 42.3 126 -0.4 82 122 0
Oregon State 2-10 1.8 (-0.2) 5.1% -18.1 123 27.7 79 44.5 129 -1.3 108 123 0
New Mexico State 3-9 2.6 (-0.4) 5.1% -18.2 124 20.3 117 37.0 113 -1.5 110 124 0
San Jose State 1-11 2.1 (1.1) 4.8% -18.5 125 16.6 125 35.4 108 0.3 64 125 0
UTSA 3-9 1.8 (-1.2) 4.4% -19.0 126 12.6 129 32.9 97 1.3 21 126 0
Bowling Green 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 3.8% -19.8 127 25.9 94 42.8 127 -2.8 127 127 0
UTEP 1-11 3.2 (2.2) 2.7% -21.5 128 14.7 126 34.6 104 -1.6 111 128 0
Rice 2-11 1.5 (-0.5) 2.4% -22.2 129 17.2 123 40.4 123 1.1 29 129 0
Connecticut 1-11 0.4 (-0.6) 1.1% -25.9 130 25.0 100 51.8 130 0.9 34 130 0