Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

2018 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

through games of 11/10/18

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance..

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk Last Week Chg
Alabama 10-0 10.0 (0.0) 99.4% 30.5 1 46.4 2 15.2 5 -0.7 96 1 0
Clemson 10-0 9.4 (-0.6) 99.2% 29.1 2 40.0 11 11.0 1 0.2 63 2 0
Georgia 9-1 8.8 (-0.2) 98.1% 25.3 3 41.4 3 18.0 15 1.9 10 5 2
Michigan 9-1 9.3 (0.3) 98.0% 24.9 4 35.7 21 11.6 2 0.9 32 3 -1
Oklahoma 9-1 9.2 (0.2) 97.8% 24.6 5 51.9 1 28.4 67 1.1 23 4 -1
Notre Dame 10-0 8.7 (-1.3) 95.2% 20.5 6 34.7 27 14.6 3 0.4 54 6 0
Central Florida 9-0 7.9 (-1.1) 92.7% 18.0 7 41.4 4 25.0 45 1.6 17 8 1
Ohio State 9-1 7.4 (-1.6) 92.6% 17.9 8 40.1 10 22.9 32 0.7 41 9 1
Fresno State 8-2 8.8 (0.8) 92.3% 17.7 9 35.4 22 17.2 11 -0.5 90 7 -2
Utah State 9-1 8.4 (-0.6) 90.0% 15.9 10 37.2 16 21.7 28 0.5 50 14 4
Washington 7-3 7.8 (0.8) 89.9% 15.9 11 32.6 40 15.2 6 -1.4 109 10 -1
West Virginia 8-1 7.2 (-0.8) 89.4% 15.6 12 41.2 5 26.6 54 0.9 28 18 6
Penn State 7-3 7.0 (0.0) 89.2% 15.5 13 33.2 33 17.9 14 0.1 64 12 -1
Appalachian State 7-2 7.2 (0.2) 88.6% 15.1 14 31.9 45 18.0 16 1.2 20 16 2
Utah 7-3 6.6 (-0.4) 87.4% 14.4 15 33.0 34 21.0 24 2.4 7 19 4
Washington State 9-1 8.5 (-0.5) 86.2% 13.7 16 37.5 15 24.3 40 0.6 49 17 1
Wisconsin 6-4 6.6 (0.6) 85.2% 13.2 17 38.2 14 24.0 38 -1.0 102 13 -4
LSU 8-2 6.4 (-1.6) 85.1% 13.1 18 27.3 83 16.9 8 2.7 3 22 4
Mississippi State 6-4 6.3 (0.3) 84.3% 12.7 19 29.9 62 15.5 7 -1.7 116 11 -8
Auburn 6-4 6.2 (0.2) 82.9% 12.1 20 30.3 54 18.6 20 0.4 53 15 -5
Texas A&M 6-4 6.6 (0.6) 82.5% 11.9 21 34.1 30 23.3 35 1.0 25 24 3
Florida 7-3 6.7 (-0.3) 81.9% 11.6 22 33.0 35 23.1 34 1.7 12 27 5
Missouri 6-4 6.6 (0.6) 80.9% 11.2 23 37.1 17 26.1 49 0.2 62 20 -3
North Texas 7-3 8.2 (1.2) 80.8% 11.1 24 32.8 37 24.1 39 2.4 6 26 2
Stanford 6-4 6.2 (0.2) 80.4% 11.0 25 35.9 20 26.6 55 1.7 13 35 10
Texas Tech 5-5 6.2 (1.2) 80.0% 10.8 26 39.5 12 31.5 91 2.7 4 33 7
Oklahoma State 5-5 6.4 (1.4) 79.8% 10.7 27 40.9 7 29.9 78 -0.3 79 23 -4
Memphis 6-4 7.1 (1.1) 79.6% 10.6 28 40.6 8 31.6 92 1.6 16 39 11
Cincinnati 9-1 8.0 (-1.0) 78.2% 10.1 29 28.4 75 18.3 19 0.0 69 28 -1
Miami-FL 5-5 6.8 (1.8) 77.9% 9.9 30 28.9 69 17.2 10 -1.8 117 21 -9
UAB 9-1 8.2 (-0.8) 76.0% 9.2 31 27.6 81 18.3 18 -0.1 74 32 1
Michigan State 6-4 5.6 (-0.4) 75.8% 9.1 32 23.7 103 15.2 4 0.6 47 30 -2
Iowa 6-4 6.3 (0.3) 75.7% 9.1 33 27.0 87 18.8 21 0.8 36 29 -4
Iowa State 6-3 5.8 (-0.2) 74.6% 8.7 34 30.1 57 21.3 26 -0.1 73 31 -3
Boise State 8-2 6.6 (-1.4) 74.3% 8.6 35 36.5 18 26.1 51 -1.8 118 34 -1
USC 5-5 6.5 (1.5) 73.4% 8.2 36 30.1 58 22.7 31 0.9 30 43 7
San Diego State 7-3 7.1 (0.1) 71.5% 7.6 37 25.2 97 19.6 23 1.9 8 44 7
Temple 6-4 6.8 (0.8) 70.6% 7.2 38 30.8 50 22.2 29 -1.3 106 41 3
Syracuse 8-2 6.6 (-1.4) 70.2% 7.1 39 32.6 39 28.8 68 3.3 1 58 19
Purdue 5-5 6.5 (1.5) 69.8% 7.0 40 35.3 23 28.2 63 -0.1 71 25 -15
Texas 7-3 5.5 (-1.5) 69.3% 6.8 41 35.1 24 29.0 69 0.7 43 42 1
Troy 8-2 7.7 (-0.3) 68.9% 6.7 42 31.8 46 26.3 52 1.2 21 50 8
Houston 7-3 7.1 (0.1) 68.3% 6.5 43 40.3 9 33.6 101 -0.2 77 36 -7
Marshall 6-3 6.5 (0.5) 67.0% 6.1 44 23.3 108 17.5 12 0.3 56 49 5
NC State 6-3 5.5 (-0.5) 67.0% 6.1 45 34.2 29 28.3 64 0.2 61 40 -5
Boston College 7-3 6.0 (-1.0) 66.5% 5.9 46 27.1 86 21.0 25 -0.2 75 38 -8
Buffalo 9-1 7.9 (-1.1) 65.0% 5.4 47 31.1 48 23.3 36 -2.4 124 47 0
Kentucky 7-3 6.1 (-0.9) 64.6% 5.3 48 22.5 112 17.0 9 -0.3 80 37 -11
South Carolina 5-4 3.7 (-1.3) 63.7% 5.0 49 32.9 36 30.8 88 2.9 2 53 4
Virginia 7-3 6.3 (-0.7) 62.8% 4.7 50 28.7 72 23.6 37 -0.3 82 55 5
Duke 7-3 5.8 (-1.2) 62.2% 4.5 51 30.4 52 25.2 46 -0.7 97 45 -6
Arizona State 6-4 5.6 (-0.4) 60.5% 4.0 52 33.8 31 30.5 85 0.8 35 52 0
Minnesota 5-5 5.0 (0.0) 58.5% 3.4 53 27.9 78 26.1 50 1.6 15 76 23
Oregon 6-4 5.4 (-0.6) 58.4% 3.4 54 34.2 28 30.3 81 -0.6 92 54 0
Maryland 5-5 5.1 (0.1) 58.0% 3.3 55 25.8 93 24.5 42 1.9 9 65 10
Nebraska 3-7 6.0 (3.0) 58.0% 3.3 56 32.2 43 27.5 56 -1.5 110 56 0
Ohio 6-4 6.1 (0.1) 57.9% 3.2 57 38.3 13 35.2 106 0.1 66 57 0
South Florida 7-3 6.3 (-0.7) 57.8% 3.2 58 33.6 32 29.5 73 -0.9 100 51 -7
Georgia Tech 6-4 5.8 (-0.2) 57.5% 3.1 59 36.1 19 33.0 96 0.0 68 60 1
Ole Miss 5-5 5.5 (0.5) 56.6% 2.8 60 41.1 6 36.7 110 -1.6 114 46 -14
Florida Atlantic 5-5 6.0 (1.0) 56.4% 2.8 61 32.8 38 28.0 60 -2.0 120 59 -2
Pittsburgh 6-4 5.5 (-0.5) 56.1% 2.7 62 32.2 44 29.9 77 0.4 52 71 9
California 6-4 5.5 (-0.5) 55.5% 2.5 63 19.2 117 18.1 17 1.3 18 63 0
Arkansas State 6-4 6.1 (0.1) 55.2% 2.4 64 32.2 42 29.2 70 -0.6 91 67 3
Eastern Michigan 6-5 6.7 (0.7) 54.4% 2.2 65 27.7 80 24.4 41 -1.1 103 64 -1
BYU 5-5 5.8 (0.8) 53.5% 1.9 66 25.5 95 23.1 33 -0.4 86 70 4
TCU 4-6 4.9 (0.9) 52.2% 1.5 67 25.4 96 22.3 30 -1.6 113 48 -19
Arizona 5-5 4.9 (-0.1) 51.6% 1.3 68 29.1 68 27.8 59 0.1 67 66 -2
Miami-OH 4-6 4.8 (0.8) 50.4% 1.0 69 28.5 74 28.1 62 0.7 42 72 3
Tennessee 5-5 4.3 (-0.7) 49.3% 0.7 70 30.0 61 30.1 79 0.8 37 82 12
Northern Illinois 7-3 5.7 (-1.3) 48.7% 0.5 71 19.6 116 17.7 13 -1.5 111 78 7
Toledo 5-5 4.7 (-0.3) 48.7% 0.5 72 35.0 25 35.4 107 0.9 31 62 -10
Nevada 6-4 5.3 (-0.7) 48.5% 0.4 73 29.7 63 29.3 72 0.1 65 84 11
Middle Tennessee 7-3 6.6 (-0.4) 47.2% 0.0 74 26.1 92 25.9 48 -0.1 72 80 6
Virginia Tech 4-5 3.9 (-0.1) 45.7% -0.4 75 31.0 49 31.7 93 0.3 57 61 -14
Southern Miss 4-5 4.8 (0.8) 44.5% -0.8 76 18.4 120 18.9 22 -0.2 76 74 -2
Northwestern 6-4 4.5 (-1.5) 44.3% -0.8 77 23.1 109 21.5 27 -2.4 125 68 -9
Georgia Southern 7-3 5.8 (-1.2) 43.1% -1.2 78 29.4 66 31.4 90 0.9 29 69 -9
Colorado 5-5 4.7 (-0.3) 43.1% -1.2 79 27.2 85 27.8 58 -0.5 89 73 -6
Air Force 4-6 5.3 (1.3) 43.0% -1.2 80 27.7 79 29.2 71 0.3 55 89 9
Indiana 5-5 4.4 (-0.6) 43.0% -1.2 81 27.6 82 29.6 75 0.8 33 83 2
Arkansas 2-8 3.4 (1.4) 42.8% -1.3 82 28.1 77 29.8 76 0.4 51 79 -3
Vanderbilt 4-6 5.2 (1.2) 42.3% -1.4 83 29.5 64 29.5 74 -1.4 108 77 -6
Tulane 5-5 4.8 (-0.2) 41.7% -1.6 84 23.0 110 25.6 47 1.1 24 88 4
Wake Forest 5-5 5.5 (0.5) 41.6% -1.6 85 30.0 60 31.1 89 -0.5 87 87 2
Florida International 7-3 5.6 (-1.4) 40.4% -2.0 86 26.7 89 30.6 87 1.9 11 97 11
Florida State 4-6 3.6 (-0.4) 40.2% -2.0 87 23.4 104 24.5 43 -1.0 101 75 -12
Army 8-2 5.3 (-2.7) 39.7% -2.2 88 30.1 56 30.2 80 -2.1 123 85 -3
UL-Lafayette 5-5 5.2 (0.2) 39.0% -2.4 89 34.9 26 38.1 113 0.7 40 93 4
Wyoming 4-6 4.7 (0.7) 37.8% -2.8 90 21.6 114 24.7 44 0.3 58 86 -4
Baylor 5-5 4.9 (-0.1) 37.7% -2.8 91 31.2 47 33.4 100 -0.6 94 81 -10
SMU 5-5 4.3 (-0.7) 36.6% -3.1 92 26.4 91 30.6 86 1.0 26 90 -2
Louisiana Tech 7-3 5.0 (-2.0) 32.0% -4.6 93 25.0 99 28.4 65 -1.3 105 91 -2
UCLA 2-8 2.2 (0.2) 29.8% -5.4 94 26.8 88 33.3 99 1.2 22 95 1
North Carolina 1-8 2.6 (1.6) 28.8% -5.7 95 27.2 84 33.2 98 0.2 59 98 3
Kansas State 4-6 4.5 (0.5) 26.1% -6.7 96 24.4 102 30.3 82 -0.8 99 96 0
UL-Monroe 6-4 4.8 (-1.2) 26.1% -6.7 97 29.4 65 34.2 103 -1.9 119 99 2
Western Michigan 6-4 5.3 (-0.7) 25.3% -6.9 98 32.4 41 35.9 108 -3.4 130 92 -6
Tulsa 2-8 3.7 (1.7) 20.5% -8.8 99 23.3 107 30.5 84 -1.6 112 94 -5
Illinois 4-6 3.5 (-0.5) 20.2% -9.0 100 30.1 59 40.6 122 1.6 14 100 0
New Mexico 3-7 4.0 (1.0) 18.7% -9.6 101 24.9 100 37.2 112 2.7 5 102 1
Old Dominion 3-7 3.1 (0.1) 16.7% -10.5 102 28.2 76 39.3 116 0.6 46 109 7
Navy 2-8 2.4 (0.4) 16.6% -10.5 103 29.3 67 40.4 120 0.6 48 110 7
Louisville 2-8 1.7 (-0.3) 16.5% -10.6 104 23.4 105 34.7 105 0.8 38 104 0
Hawaii 6-5 5.7 (-0.3) 14.9% -11.4 105 30.4 53 41.0 123 -0.8 98 105 0
East Carolina 2-7 2.8 (0.8) 14.5% -11.6 106 18.0 121 30.3 83 0.8 39 108 2
Akron 4-5 2.9 (-1.1) 12.9% -12.4 107 15.0 127 28.0 61 0.7 45 107 0
Coastal Carolina 5-5 3.4 (-1.6) 12.8% -12.5 108 30.1 55 42.3 125 -0.3 81 106 -2
Texas State 3-7 5.2 (2.2) 12.6% -12.6 109 17.9 122 28.4 66 -2.1 121 103 -6
Massachusetts 4-7 4.0 (0.0) 11.3% -13.4 110 28.9 70 40.2 118 -2.1 122 101 -9
UNLV 3-7 3.1 (0.1) 9.7% -14.4 111 28.8 71 40.5 121 -2.8 127 114 3
Kansas 3-7 2.5 (-0.5) 9.4% -14.7 112 18.9 119 33.2 97 -0.4 83 115 3
Charlotte 4-6 2.9 (-1.1) 9.0% -14.9 113 13.3 128 27.8 57 -0.4 84 116 3
Liberty 4-5 2.8 (-1.2) 8.2% -15.5 114 30.7 51 43.2 127 -3.0 129 111 -3
Western Kentucky 1-9 2.9 (1.9) 8.1% -15.6 115 19.2 118 32.1 94 -2.6 126 112 -3
South Alabama 2-8 2.4 (0.4) 7.7% -15.9 116 23.3 106 39.4 117 0.2 60 117 1
Central Michigan 1-10 2.5 (1.5) 7.7% -15.9 117 10.7 130 26.5 53 -0.1 70 123 6
Colorado State 3-7 2.4 (-0.6) 7.4% -16.1 118 24.9 101 40.4 119 -0.6 93 113 -5
Ball State 3-7 2.4 (-0.6) 6.6% -16.8 119 21.5 115 37.0 111 -1.4 107 121 2
Georgia State 2-8 2.7 (0.7) 6.6% -16.9 120 26.6 90 43.0 126 -0.5 88 118 -2
New Mexico State 3-7 2.2 (-0.8) 6.6% -16.9 121 22.9 111 39.1 115 -0.6 95 122 1
Kent State 2-8 2.9 (0.9) 6.4% -17.1 122 22.4 113 39.0 114 -0.4 85 119 -3
Rutgers 1-9 1.5 (0.5) 6.1% -17.4 123 15.4 126 33.7 102 0.9 27 126 3
Oregon State 2-8 1.8 (-0.2) 6.0% -17.5 124 28.5 73 44.3 128 -1.6 115 120 -4
UTEP 1-9 3.2 (2.2) 4.9% -18.6 125 16.8 124 34.3 104 -1.1 104 124 -1
San Jose State 1-9 2.0 (1.0) 4.2% -19.4 126 16.9 123 36.0 109 -0.3 78 125 -1
UTSA 3-7 1.5 (-1.5) 3.5% -20.4 127 11.3 129 33.0 95 1.2 19 127 0
Bowling Green 2-8 1.3 (-0.7) 1.9% -23.5 128 25.1 98 45.6 129 -3.0 128 128 0
Rice 1-10 0.6 (-0.4) 1.7% -24.2 129 16.4 125 41.4 124 0.8 34 129 0
Connecticut 1-9 0.5 (-0.5) 1.4% -25.1 130 25.8 94 51.5 130 0.7 44 130 0