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2018 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Alabama SEC 14-1 13.8 (-0.2) 99.5% 36.3 1 50.9 2 14.2 7 -0.4 85 0.795 11
Georgia SEC 11-3 11.5 (0.5) 99.0% 32.9 2 45.9 3 14.2 8 1.3 20 0.794 9
Clemson ACC 15-0 14.0 (-1.0) 98.2% 29.7 3 43.0 5 12.6 3 -0.6 95 0.912 63
Oklahoma Big 12 12-2 11.7 (-0.3) 95.9% 24.9 4 54.0 1 30.0 84 1.0 32 0.909 61
LSU SEC 10-3 9.1 (-0.9) 95.4% 24.2 5 34.8 30 13.4 5 2.7 3 0.750 1
Ohio State Big Ten 13-1 10.9 (-2.1) 95.3% 24.1 6 44.4 4 21.2 26 0.8 38 0.899 51
Auburn SEC 8-5 8.2 (0.2) 94.9% 23.6 7 36.9 19 14.1 6 0.7 43 0.761 3
Mississippi State SEC 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 94.6% 23.2 8 34.6 32 10.5 1 -0.9 101 0.791 8
Florida SEC 10-3 9.7 (-0.3) 94.4% 23.0 9 38.6 15 17.4 17 1.7 11 0.813 14
Michigan Big Ten 10-3 10.3 (0.3) 93.6% 22.0 10 35.5 25 14.3 9 0.9 36 0.867 26
Texas A&M SEC 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 93.2% 21.6 11 40.3 10 19.8 21 1.1 28 0.761 4
Missouri SEC 8-5 9.3 (1.3) 92.4% 20.8 12 41.3 8 21.0 25 0.5 51 0.794 10
Notre Dame Ind 12-1 10.3 (-1.7) 92.3% 20.7 13 34.6 33 14.5 10 0.6 45 0.905 55
Washington Pac-12 10-4 10.9 (0.9) 91.4% 19.9 14 34.5 34 12.7 4 -1.9 117 0.880 34
Penn State Big Ten 9-4 9.7 (0.7) 90.4% 19.0 15 33.9 36 14.6 11 -0.3 77 0.868 29
Fresno State MWC 12-2 12.1 (0.1) 88.1% 17.4 16 33.5 37 15.5 12 -0.6 94 0.944 91
Utah Pac-12 9-5 9.2 (0.2) 87.3% 16.8 17 31.9 45 18.1 19 3.0 1 0.887 38
Central Florida AAC 12-1 10.6 (-1.4) 86.7% 16.5 18 39.9 11 25.2 47 1.8 10 0.954 107
Wisconsin Big Ten 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 85.0% 15.5 19 39.3 12 21.6 29 -2.3 125 0.899 50
South Carolina SEC 7-6 5.8 (-1.2) 84.0% 14.9 20 36.4 21 23.6 40 2.0 7 0.788 7
Utah State MWC 11-2 10.0 (-1.0) 82.7% 14.2 21 36.3 22 22.5 35 0.4 55 0.956 110
Oklahoma State Big 12 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 82.1% 13.8 22 42.0 7 28.9 71 0.7 42 0.892 46
Iowa Big Ten 9-4 8.8 (-0.2) 81.0% 13.3 23 30.3 54 17.7 18 0.7 44 0.911 62
West Virginia Big 12 8-4 7.5 (-0.5) 80.8% 13.2 24 41.1 9 29.2 76 1.3 18 0.888 39
Kentucky SEC 10-3 7.8 (-2.2) 80.5% 13.1 25 29.5 64 16.3 15 -0.1 72 0.806 12
Stanford Pac-12 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 80.4% 13.0 26 35.4 26 24.3 43 1.8 8 0.877 33
Miami-FL ACC 7-6 8.8 (1.8) 79.8% 12.7 27 29.3 66 15.8 14 -0.8 97 0.922 72
Boise State MWC 10-3 8.9 (-1.1) 78.8% 12.2 28 37.1 18 22.8 38 -2.0 121 0.905 56
Appalachian State Sun Belt 11-2 11.0 (0.0) 78.0% 11.9 29 30.0 56 19.0 20 1.0 34 0.961 116
Michigan State Big Ten 7-6 7.5 (0.5) 77.1% 11.5 30 22.0 112 10.8 2 0.3 61 0.867 28
Washington State Pac-12 11-2 9.7 (-1.3) 76.8% 11.3 31 38.8 13 27.3 59 -0.2 74 0.903 53
Texas Big 12 10-4 8.3 (-1.7) 76.6% 11.3 32 35.3 27 24.4 44 0.4 59 0.865 24
Ole Miss SEC 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 73.2% 9.8 33 42.1 6 31.2 90 -1.2 103 0.786 6
USC Pac-12 5-7 7.0 (2.0) 72.9% 9.7 34 31.7 46 22.5 34 0.5 50 0.892 44
NC State ACC 9-4 8.3 (-0.7) 72.2% 9.4 35 35.1 29 26.7 54 1.1 27 0.917 65
Memphis AAC 8-6 9.6 (1.6) 71.6% 9.2 36 38.8 14 30.5 87 0.8 39 0.931 80
Texas Tech Big 12 5-7 6.2 (1.2) 70.4% 8.7 37 36.2 23 29.8 81 2.4 6 0.885 36
Iowa State Big 12 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 68.5% 7.9 38 29.9 59 21.5 28 -0.4 83 0.885 37
Vanderbilt SEC 6-7 7.1 (1.1) 67.6% 7.6 39 35.6 24 27.1 57 -0.9 100 0.812 13
Syracuse ACC 10-3 8.5 (-1.5) 67.4% 7.5 40 32.1 44 27.4 60 2.8 2 0.898 49
Oregon Pac-12 9-4 7.6 (-1.4) 66.7% 7.3 41 34.7 31 25.8 50 -1.7 111 0.909 59
Virginia ACC 8-5 8.9 (0.9) 66.4% 7.1 42 29.7 62 22.0 31 -0.6 93 0.941 88
TCU Big 12 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 65.8% 6.9 43 25.7 91 16.9 16 -1.8 115 0.865 25
Purdue Big Ten 6-7 7.5 (1.5) 64.5% 6.5 44 37.2 17 30.8 88 0.0 67 0.867 27
Minnesota Big Ten 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 64.1% 6.3 45 28.2 75 22.8 39 1.0 31 0.884 35
BYU Ind 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 63.8% 6.2 46 28.9 72 22.3 33 -0.4 86 0.896 47
San Diego State MWC 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 63.3% 6.0 47 25.6 92 21.0 24 1.4 16 0.934 83
Tennessee SEC 5-7 4.3 (-0.7) 61.7% 5.5 48 33.4 38 28.9 72 1.0 30 0.759 2
Nebraska Big Ten 4-8 6.7 (2.7) 61.6% 5.4 49 32.7 42 26.9 55 -0.4 80 0.868 30
Cincinnati AAC 11-2 9.6 (-1.4) 61.4% 5.4 50 28.3 74 22.6 36 -0.4 82 0.955 108
Duke ACC 8-5 6.8 (-1.2) 60.5% 5.0 51 30.5 52 25.0 46 -0.5 87 0.901 52
Arizona State Pac-12 7-6 6.3 (-0.7) 60.5% 5.0 52 33.9 35 30.4 86 1.5 14 0.892 45
Arkansas SEC 2-10 3.4 (1.4) 58.8% 4.5 53 29.7 61 25.7 49 0.5 52 0.777 5
Ohio MAC 9-4 8.9 (-0.1) 57.6% 4.0 54 38.2 16 35.0 107 0.8 40 0.974 127
Virginia Tech ACC 6-7 5.7 (-0.3) 57.2% 3.9 55 32.8 41 29.4 77 0.4 57 0.921 71
California Pac-12 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 57.1% 3.9 56 18.3 118 15.6 13 1.2 25 0.909 58
Wake Forest ACC 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 56.4% 3.6 57 31.2 48 28.1 64 0.5 49 0.890 42
Arizona Pac-12 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 56.2% 3.6 58 32.3 43 29.0 74 0.3 63 0.918 67
Maryland Big Ten 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 54.6% 3.0 59 27.6 80 25.9 51 1.3 21 0.861 20
Temple AAC 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 54.4% 2.9 60 28.1 76 23.9 42 -1.3 106 0.951 102
Pittsburgh ACC 7-7 6.8 (-0.2) 53.8% 2.7 61 29.0 71 26.6 53 0.4 60 0.849 17
Troy Sun Belt 10-3 8.8 (-1.2) 53.4% 2.6 62 26.4 89 25.6 48 1.8 9 0.961 115
Boston College ACC 7-5 6.2 (-0.8) 52.9% 2.4 63 26.5 88 22.1 32 -1.9 118 0.896 48
Houston AAC 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 52.6% 2.3 64 36.7 20 34.9 106 0.6 47 0.961 113
North Texas C-USA 9-4 9.8 (0.8) 51.9% 2.1 65 29.2 67 29.5 78 2.4 5 0.981 130
Toledo MAC 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 51.6% 2.0 66 35.2 28 34.4 102 1.1 26 0.953 106
Baylor Big 12 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 51.5% 2.0 67 33.1 39 30.3 85 -0.8 99 0.889 41
Northwestern Big Ten 9-5 6.2 (-2.8) 51.4% 1.9 68 25.5 94 21.6 30 -2.0 120 0.854 19
Wyoming MWC 6-6 6.3 (0.3) 51.2% 1.9 69 25.1 95 23.7 41 0.4 56 0.907 57
Indiana Big Ten 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 50.4% 1.6 70 30.2 55 29.1 75 0.4 54 0.861 21
Florida State ACC 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 49.8% 1.4 71 25.0 97 22.8 37 -0.8 96 0.850 18
Arkansas State Sun Belt 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 49.2% 1.2 72 29.9 57 27.9 62 -0.8 98 0.926 75
Marshall C-USA 9-4 9.2 (0.2) 48.7% 1.0 73 22.0 113 20.5 22 -0.5 88 0.971 124
Georgia Tech ACC 7-6 5.8 (-1.2) 46.6% 0.3 74 33.0 40 33.9 100 1.2 24 0.864 23
UAB C-USA 11-3 10.1 (-0.9) 44.9% -0.3 75 24.1 104 24.4 45 0.0 68 0.961 114
UCLA Pac-12 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 44.7% -0.4 76 30.7 50 32.4 97 1.3 19 0.844 15
Nevada MWC 8-5 6.5 (-1.5) 44.3% -0.5 77 27.5 83 28.0 63 0.1 66 0.940 87
Kansas State Big 12 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 44.3% -0.5 78 27.2 84 27.5 61 -0.2 75 0.863 22
Miami-OH MAC 6-6 5.9 (-0.1) 43.6% -0.7 79 26.2 90 28.4 66 1.5 12 0.966 119
Colorado Pac-12 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 43.6% -0.7 80 27.0 85 27.2 58 -0.5 89 0.904 54
Florida Atlantic C-USA 5-7 6.6 (1.6) 43.4% -0.8 81 30.8 49 29.9 82 -1.8 114 0.931 78
Buffalo MAC 10-4 9.5 (-0.5) 42.6% -1.1 82 31.3 47 29.9 83 -2.5 126 0.974 126
South Florida AAC 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 42.2% -1.2 83 29.1 69 29.8 80 -0.5 91 0.955 109
Army Ind 11-2 8.1 (-2.9) 41.3% -1.5 84 29.4 65 28.7 70 -2.2 123 0.942 90
Air Force MWC 5-7 6.1 (1.1) 40.5% -1.8 85 29.2 68 31.2 91 0.2 65 0.945 93
Eastern Michigan MAC 7-6 8.5 (1.5) 39.9% -2.0 86 25.5 93 26.1 52 -1.5 109 0.970 122
Georgia Southern Sun Belt 10-3 7.9 (-2.1) 38.9% -2.4 87 27.9 78 31.6 92 1.4 17 0.934 82
North Carolina ACC 2-9 3.8 (1.8) 38.6% -2.5 88 29.9 58 31.9 95 -0.5 90 0.926 77
Northern Illinois MAC 8-6 7.4 (-0.6) 37.8% -2.7 89 19.1 117 20.8 23 -1.0 102 0.939 86
Tulane AAC 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 35.7% -3.5 90 23.8 106 28.3 65 0.9 35 0.931 79
Middle Tennessee C-USA 8-6 8.3 (0.3) 34.9% -3.8 91 24.4 103 28.7 68 0.5 53 0.919 69
Southern Miss C-USA 6-5 6.2 (0.2) 31.8% -5.0 92 16.6 122 21.4 27 -0.3 76 0.951 101
SMU AAC 5-7 4.9 (-0.1) 30.7% -5.4 93 24.0 105 29.7 79 0.3 62 0.916 64
Louisiana Tech C-USA 8-5 7.1 (-0.9) 26.9% -6.9 94 22.0 111 27.0 56 -1.8 116 0.925 74
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 7-7 7.0 (0.0) 26.8% -6.9 95 30.5 53 38.9 116 1.5 15 0.889 40
Florida International C-USA 9-4 7.4 (-1.6) 25.6% -7.4 96 26.7 86 34.7 105 0.6 46 0.971 123
Illinois Big Ten 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 24.3% -7.9 97 29.1 70 38.6 115 1.5 13 0.909 60
Louisville ACC 2-10 1.7 (-0.3) 21.8% -9.1 98 24.5 102 33.6 99 0.0 70 0.844 16
New Mexico MWC 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 20.8% -9.5 99 23.8 107 35.7 109 2.4 4 0.917 66
Kansas Big 12 3-9 2.8 (-0.2) 19.9% -10.0 100 21.9 114 31.9 94 0.0 71 0.890 43
Navy AAC 3-10 3.4 (0.4) 19.4% -10.2 101 27.5 82 38.3 114 0.6 48 0.921 70
Colorado State MWC 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 19.2% -10.3 102 27.6 81 36.7 110 -1.2 104 0.918 68
Hawaii MWC 8-6 7.2 (-0.8) 19.1% -10.4 103 29.5 63 39.5 118 -0.4 81 0.941 89
Western Michigan MAC 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 18.4% -10.7 104 29.8 60 37.4 112 -3.1 130 0.944 92
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 6-6 5.4 (-0.6) 18.1% -10.9 105 26.5 87 35.4 108 -2.0 119 0.946 96
UNLV MWC 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 17.6% -11.1 106 30.7 51 38.9 117 -2.9 128 0.934 84
Tulsa AAC 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 17.5% -11.2 107 22.9 109 32.3 96 -1.7 113 0.949 99
Rutgers Big Ten 1-11 1.8 (0.8) 15.5% -12.3 108 15.0 123 28.5 67 1.2 23 0.869 31
Old Dominion C-USA 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 12.5% -14.1 109 24.9 98 39.7 119 0.7 41 0.977 129
East Carolina AAC 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 11.3% -14.9 110 18.3 119 34.2 101 1.0 33 0.936 85
Oregon State Pac-12 2-10 1.8 (-0.2) 9.9% -16.0 111 28.8 73 43.4 126 -1.3 107 0.875 32
Massachusetts Ind 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 9.7% -16.1 112 27.8 79 42.2 124 -1.7 112 0.926 76
Western Kentucky C-USA 3-9 4.2 (1.2) 9.7% -16.1 113 17.9 120 31.8 93 -2.2 122 0.968 120
Texas State Sun Belt 3-9 6.1 (3.1) 9.4% -16.4 114 14.9 126 29.0 73 -2.2 124 0.972 125
San Jose State MWC 1-11 2.0 (1.0) 8.5% -17.1 115 17.3 121 34.7 104 0.2 64 0.923 73
Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 5-7 3.5 (-1.5) 8.3% -17.2 116 28.1 77 45.7 129 0.4 58 0.952 105
South Alabama Sun Belt 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 7.8% -17.7 117 24.5 101 42.0 123 -0.3 78 0.946 95
Charlotte C-USA 5-7 3.6 (-1.4) 7.0% -18.5 118 15.0 125 33.5 98 0.0 69 0.963 117
Ball State MAC 4-8 3.1 (-0.9) 6.6% -18.9 119 22.5 110 40.2 120 -1.2 105 0.950 100
Akron MAC 4-8 2.9 (-1.1) 6.3% -19.3 120 11.9 128 31.0 89 -0.2 73 0.952 104
Liberty Ind 6-6 4.4 (-1.6) 5.9% -19.7 121 25.1 96 41.7 122 -3.1 129 0.947 97
Central Michigan MAC 1-11 2.3 (1.3) 5.6% -20.0 122 9.0 130 28.7 69 -0.3 79 0.958 111
New Mexico State Ind 3-9 2.6 (-0.4) 5.4% -20.2 123 19.2 116 38.0 113 -1.4 108 0.959 112
Kent State MAC 2-10 2.9 (0.9) 5.3% -20.4 124 20.5 115 40.3 121 -0.6 92 0.945 94
Georgia State Sun Belt 2-10 2.8 (0.8) 5.3% -20.4 125 23.6 108 43.6 127 -0.4 84 0.951 103
Bowling Green MAC 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 4.1% -22.0 126 24.7 100 43.9 128 -2.8 127 0.965 118
UTSA C-USA 3-9 1.8 (-1.2) 4.1% -22.1 127 11.1 129 34.4 103 1.2 22 0.968 121
Connecticut AAC 1-11 0.4 (-0.6) 2.0% -26.4 128 24.7 99 51.9 130 0.9 37 0.932 81
Rice C-USA 2-11 1.5 (-0.5) 2.0% -26.4 129 15.0 124 42.5 125 1.1 29 0.948 98
UTEP C-USA 1-11 3.2 (2.2) 1.9% -26.6 130 12.1 127 37.1 111 -1.6 110 0.977 128