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2017 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Alabama SEC 13-1 12.2 (-0.8) 99.2% 33.5 1 38.7 11 5.6 1 0.4 52 0.842 28
Ohio State Big Ten 12-2 11.5 (-0.5) 98.7% 30.9 2 42.9 3 12.8 7 0.9 35 0.828 18
Wisconsin Big Ten 13-1 11.9 (-1.1) 97.2% 26.8 3 37.4 18 11.6 4 1.0 28 0.873 50
Georgia SEC 13-2 12.7 (-0.3) 97.2% 26.7 4 39.6 7 15.4 12 2.6 3 0.835 23
Clemson ACC 12-2 11.8 (-0.2) 97.0% 26.4 5 36.5 20 8.3 2 -1.8 114 0.829 19
Penn State Big Ten 11-2 10.9 (-0.1) 96.8% 26.0 6 41.5 5 14.9 10 -0.6 88 0.860 42
Oklahoma Big 12 12-2 12.1 (0.1) 96.5% 25.5 7 49.8 1 24.2 43 -0.1 71 0.843 29
Auburn SEC 10-4 10.3 (0.3) 96.0% 24.7 8 35.4 26 11.0 3 0.2 61 0.767 1
Florida State ACC 7-6 8.0 (1.0) 94.7% 22.8 9 33.3 37 12.5 6 2.0 8 0.808 4
Washington Pac-12 10-3 11.3 (1.3) 94.0% 22.1 10 39.4 8 16.3 13 -1.1 105 0.921 71
LSU SEC 9-4 9.4 (0.4) 93.1% 21.1 11 35.6 23 14.0 8 -0.5 86 0.839 26
Notre Dame Ind 10-3 9.5 (-0.5) 92.8% 20.8 12 37.4 19 16.9 15 0.2 59 0.834 22
Michigan Big Ten 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 91.5% 19.6 13 31.1 49 11.8 5 0.3 58 0.823 14
Louisville ACC 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 91.0% 19.2 14 43.3 2 24.9 47 0.8 39 0.869 47
Oklahoma State Big 12 10-3 9.8 (-0.2) 90.9% 19.1 15 42.2 4 23.0 35 -0.1 72 0.880 57
TCU Big 12 11-3 10.3 (-0.7) 90.6% 18.9 16 35.7 22 18.7 19 1.9 9 0.858 38
USC Pac-12 11-3 10.7 (-0.3) 89.3% 17.9 17 38.5 12 20.0 24 -0.6 89 0.880 59
Miami-FL ACC 10-3 9.1 (-0.9) 88.7% 17.4 18 35.3 27 17.0 16 -0.9 100 0.838 24
Mississippi State SEC 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 86.4% 16.0 19 32.4 40 18.1 18 1.7 16 0.812 5
Stanford Pac-12 9-5 7.7 (-1.3) 86.1% 15.8 20 37.7 16 24.5 44 2.6 2 0.856 35
Virginia Tech ACC 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 83.5% 14.3 21 27.8 71 14.4 9 0.9 31 0.890 61
Central Florida AAC 13-0 11.9 (-1.1) 83.0% 14.1 22 40.5 6 26.9 63 0.4 51 0.953 97
Michigan State Big Ten 10-3 8.7 (-1.3) 82.6% 13.8 23 27.7 72 15.1 11 1.2 24 0.819 9
NC State ACC 9-4 8.9 (-0.1) 80.6% 12.9 24 38.0 15 23.3 38 -1.9 116 0.830 21
Utah Pac-12 7-6 8.5 (1.5) 78.7% 12.0 25 30.6 53 20.5 28 1.9 10 0.885 60
Ole Miss SEC 6-6 7.6 (1.6) 78.0% 11.6 26 38.9 10 28.8 76 1.6 17 0.839 27
Northwestern Big Ten 10-3 8.0 (-2.0) 77.0% 11.2 27 28.8 60 17.4 17 -0.3 77 0.869 46
Missouri SEC 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 76.8% 11.1 28 35.5 24 26.4 61 2.0 7 0.880 56
Kansas State Big 12 8-5 7.2 (-0.8) 76.4% 10.9 29 34.4 32 26.1 59 2.6 1 0.872 49
Texas Big 12 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 75.5% 10.6 30 26.7 81 16.3 14 0.2 63 0.853 34
Wake Forest ACC 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 75.3% 10.5 31 35.7 21 25.1 51 0.0 70 0.827 17
South Florida AAC 10-2 9.8 (-0.2) 74.7% 10.2 32 31.6 47 21.2 29 -0.2 73 0.958 106
Indiana Big Ten 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 74.6% 10.2 33 28.6 66 20.2 25 1.8 11 0.821 11
Florida SEC 4-7 5.1 (1.1) 74.4% 10.1 34 30.8 51 22.4 33 1.7 15 0.818 7
Iowa Big Ten 8-5 6.9 (-1.1) 73.7% 9.8 35 28.4 70 19.4 21 0.8 38 0.819 10
Texas A&M SEC 7-6 5.5 (-1.5) 72.6% 9.4 36 33.1 38 25.2 52 1.5 18 0.822 12
Oregon Pac-12 7-6 7.9 (0.9) 72.0% 9.1 37 35.0 28 25.1 50 -0.7 92 0.897 64
Boise State MWC 11-3 10.7 (-0.3) 71.8% 9.1 38 28.6 64 20.5 27 1.0 29 0.957 104
Georgia Tech ACC 5-6 6.0 (1.0) 71.4% 8.9 39 34.9 29 25.1 49 -0.9 103 0.829 20
Washington State Pac-12 9-4 7.5 (-1.5) 70.6% 8.6 40 30.9 50 22.1 30 -0.3 79 0.879 55
South Carolina SEC 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 68.5% 7.8 41 28.4 69 19.7 22 -0.8 95 0.853 33
Memphis AAC 10-3 9.0 (-1.0) 68.5% 7.8 42 37.6 17 30.6 86 0.7 41 0.940 85
Houston AAC 7-5 7.5 (0.5) 68.3% 7.7 43 32.3 43 25.8 57 1.3 22 0.948 94
Iowa State Big 12 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 67.7% 7.5 44 38.2 13 30.7 88 0.0 68 0.862 43
Toledo MAC 11-3 10.2 (-0.8) 65.3% 6.6 45 32.2 45 25.7 54 0.1 64 0.963 111
Duke ACC 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 63.9% 6.1 46 25.5 87 19.2 20 -0.2 74 0.873 51
Pittsburgh ACC 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 63.5% 6.0 47 31.4 48 25.0 48 -0.4 82 0.850 32
Purdue Big Ten 7-6 8.0 (1.0) 62.9% 5.8 48 28.6 63 22.1 32 -0.7 90 0.846 30
West Virginia Big 12 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 62.5% 5.6 49 33.6 36 27.2 65 -0.8 93 0.856 36
Florida Atlantic C-USA 11-3 11.1 (0.1) 61.0% 5.1 50 34.7 30 31.3 89 1.8 13 0.948 95
UCLA Pac-12 6-7 6.6 (0.6) 60.5% 4.9 51 39.3 9 34.5 104 0.1 65 0.867 45
Texas Tech Big 12 6-7 6.9 (0.9) 60.1% 4.8 52 34.4 33 28.3 70 -1.3 109 0.857 37
Boston College ACC 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 59.5% 4.6 53 25.2 89 19.9 23 -0.7 91 0.823 15
San Diego State MWC 10-3 8.4 (-1.6) 59.3% 4.5 54 28.5 68 24.8 45 0.9 36 0.957 103
North Carolina ACC 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 58.6% 4.3 55 29.3 58 25.9 58 0.9 33 0.862 44
Syracuse ACC 4-8 3.4 (-0.6) 57.7% 4.0 56 29.3 57 27.3 66 2.0 6 0.816 6
Colorado State MWC 7-6 8.0 (1.0) 57.3% 3.9 57 34.6 31 32.7 97 2.0 5 0.925 74
Appalachian State Sun Belt 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 57.1% 3.8 58 29.5 55 24.8 46 -0.9 99 0.945 92
Arizona Pac-12 7-6 7.7 (0.7) 57.0% 3.7 59 38.1 14 33.9 101 -0.5 85 0.913 67
Ohio MAC 9-4 9.8 (0.8) 55.7% 3.3 60 32.2 44 30.6 87 1.7 14 0.974 123
Kentucky SEC 7-6 5.1 (-1.9) 54.0% 2.7 61 30.8 52 29.5 80 1.5 19 0.859 40
Nebraska Big Ten 4-8 3.7 (-0.3) 53.4% 2.5 62 25.6 85 23.7 40 0.6 46 0.822 13
Arkansas SEC 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 52.0% 2.1 63 34.1 34 31.8 91 -0.2 75 0.798 3
Colorado Pac-12 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 51.7% 2.0 64 30.3 54 30.1 84 1.8 12 0.897 65
Troy Sun Belt 11-2 8.9 (-2.1) 50.6% 1.6 65 27.5 73 23.5 39 -2.4 125 0.953 98
Arkansas State Sun Belt 7-5 8.6 (1.6) 50.2% 1.5 66 29.3 56 28.6 74 0.8 40 0.982 129
Tennessee SEC 4-8 3.6 (-0.4) 49.4% 1.2 67 25.8 83 25.7 55 1.1 26 0.827 16
Arizona State Pac-12 7-6 5.0 (-2.0) 48.8% 1.0 68 33.9 35 33.1 99 0.2 60 0.873 52
Virginia ACC 6-7 5.9 (-0.1) 48.3% 0.8 69 25.0 91 23.3 37 -0.9 96 0.876 53
Vanderbilt SEC 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 47.7% 0.6 70 32.3 41 29.0 79 -2.6 128 0.838 25
Temple AAC 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 47.2% 0.5 71 25.1 90 24.1 42 -0.5 87 0.925 76
Minnesota Big Ten 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 47.0% 0.4 72 23.9 100 22.1 31 -1.4 110 0.877 54
Navy AAC 7-6 6.2 (-0.8) 43.5% -0.7 73 32.5 39 32.1 93 -1.2 106 0.917 69
California Pac-12 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 42.9% -1.0 74 28.7 62 29.9 82 0.3 57 0.870 48
Northern Illinois MAC 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 41.6% -1.4 75 21.0 112 20.5 26 -1.9 119 0.964 113
Baylor Big 12 1-11 2.6 (1.6) 41.5% -1.4 76 26.9 78 29.0 77 0.6 45 0.858 39
Miami-OH MAC 5-7 7.5 (2.5) 39.3% -2.2 77 24.2 96 26.9 64 0.6 47 0.957 105
Western Michigan MAC 6-6 6.3 (0.3) 38.8% -2.4 78 25.7 84 28.4 73 0.4 53 0.945 90
Wyoming MWC 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 38.4% -2.5 79 19.7 115 23.1 36 0.9 32 0.954 100
UTSA C-USA 6-5 6.8 (0.8) 38.4% -2.5 80 18.7 119 22.5 34 1.3 23 0.985 130
Fresno State MWC 10-4 9.4 (-0.6) 37.8% -2.7 81 22.3 106 25.5 53 0.5 49 0.895 63
SMU AAC 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 37.3% -2.9 82 35.4 25 37.4 113 -0.9 98 0.926 77
Utah State MWC 6-7 7.0 (1.0) 36.0% -3.3 83 24.4 95 28.0 67 0.3 56 0.927 78
Southern Miss C-USA 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 35.8% -3.4 84 24.9 92 28.3 71 0.0 69 0.979 128
Marshall C-USA 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 32.8% -4.5 85 19.4 116 23.9 41 0.1 66 0.962 110
Maryland Big Ten 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 32.8% -4.5 86 26.7 80 28.3 72 -2.9 130 0.781 2
North Texas C-USA 9-5 8.5 (-0.5) 32.7% -4.5 87 28.6 65 34.3 103 1.2 25 0.964 114
Western Kentucky C-USA 6-7 6.8 (0.8) 31.7% -4.9 88 25.5 88 30.0 83 -0.4 83 0.979 127
Middle Tennessee C-USA 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 31.6% -4.9 89 21.2 111 26.8 62 0.6 44 0.971 121
Eastern Michigan MAC 5-7 5.8 (0.8) 30.6% -5.3 90 22.0 107 26.4 60 -1.0 104 0.965 115
Army Ind 10-3 7.0 (-3.0) 30.6% -5.3 91 32.1 46 35.0 106 -2.5 127 0.931 81
Rutgers Big Ten 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 30.2% -5.5 92 23.3 101 29.0 78 0.2 62 0.818 8
Louisiana Tech C-USA 7-6 6.8 (-0.2) 30.1% -5.5 93 26.8 79 32.7 96 0.4 50 0.953 99
Tulane AAC 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 29.7% -5.7 94 28.5 67 35.0 108 0.9 37 0.921 72
Cincinnati AAC 4-8 4.4 (0.4) 27.9% -6.4 95 23.3 103 28.2 68 -1.4 111 0.928 79
Illinois Big Ten 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 25.3% -7.4 96 21.6 109 29.9 81 0.9 34 0.848 31
BYU Ind 4-9 5.5 (1.5) 25.2% -7.4 97 18.6 121 25.8 56 -0.3 78 0.893 62
Central Michigan MAC 8-5 6.1 (-1.9) 22.4% -8.6 98 21.4 110 28.2 69 -1.9 118 0.961 109
New Mexico State Sun Belt 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 20.7% -9.4 99 24.5 94 32.6 95 -1.3 107 0.972 122
Massachusetts Ind 4-8 5.9 (1.9) 20.2% -9.7 100 24.1 98 31.9 92 -1.8 115 0.956 102
Bowling Green MAC 2-10 3.4 (1.4) 19.5% -10.0 101 27.5 74 38.9 119 1.4 20 0.944 89
Florida International C-USA 8-5 6.4 (-1.6) 18.7% -10.4 102 24.0 99 35.0 107 0.7 43 0.964 112
Tulsa AAC 2-10 2.4 (0.4) 18.0% -10.7 103 27.3 76 37.8 117 -0.2 76 0.924 73
Air Force MWC 5-7 3.8 (-1.2) 17.4% -11.0 104 28.8 61 40.5 124 0.7 42 0.939 84
Buffalo MAC 6-6 6.1 (0.1) 17.0% -11.2 105 24.9 93 33.9 100 -2.2 123 0.969 119
South Alabama Sun Belt 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 15.6% -12.0 106 18.3 123 31.4 90 1.1 27 0.948 93
Idaho Sun Belt 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 14.9% -12.4 107 18.7 120 30.2 85 -0.8 94 0.969 118
New Mexico MWC 3-9 4.6 (1.6) 14.9% -12.4 108 20.8 113 34.2 102 0.9 30 0.954 101
Oregon State Pac-12 1-11 1.9 (0.9) 14.6% -12.6 109 28.8 59 39.9 122 -1.5 113 0.880 58
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 14.1% -12.9 110 32.3 42 45.5 130 0.3 55 0.910 66
Georgia State Sun Belt 7-5 5.8 (-1.2) 12.3% -14.0 111 17.0 124 28.6 75 -2.4 126 0.945 91
East Carolina AAC 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 12.2% -14.0 112 27.2 77 41.8 128 0.5 48 0.914 68
UNLV MWC 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 11.5% -14.5 113 26.2 82 39.8 121 -0.9 101 0.938 83
Kansas Big 12 1-11 1.5 (0.5) 11.1% -14.8 114 21.6 108 36.7 110 0.4 54 0.859 41
Coastal Carolina Sun Belt 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 10.7% -15.1 115 22.6 104 37.2 112 -0.5 84 0.974 124
UAB C-USA 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 10.1% -15.5 116 19.3 117 34.9 105 0.0 67 0.976 126
Georgia Southern Sun Belt 2-10 2.2 (0.2) 9.8% -15.8 117 18.3 122 35.5 109 1.4 21 0.934 82
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 5-7 4.1 (-0.9) 9.7% -15.8 118 27.5 75 42.9 129 -0.4 81 0.960 108
Nevada MWC 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 9.0% -16.4 119 25.6 86 41.1 127 -0.9 97 0.941 86
Old Dominion C-USA 5-7 3.8 (-1.2) 8.4% -16.8 120 16.3 125 32.8 98 -0.3 80 0.958 107
Akron MAC 7-7 4.7 (-2.3) 7.6% -17.6 121 24.1 97 39.6 120 -2.2 122 0.925 75
Connecticut AAC 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 6.0% -19.2 122 22.4 105 40.7 125 -0.9 102 0.928 80
Ball State MAC 2-10 2.1 (0.1) 5.6% -19.7 123 20.3 114 37.7 116 -2.3 124 0.974 125
Hawaii MWC 3-9 3.5 (0.5) 5.6% -19.7 124 23.3 102 40.4 123 -2.6 129 0.968 117
San Jose State MWC 2-11 2.3 (0.3) 5.3% -20.0 125 15.2 126 37.5 114 2.3 4 0.943 88
Kent State MAC 2-10 3.0 (1.0) 5.1% -20.2 126 14.3 128 32.4 94 -2.1 120 0.918 70
Texas State Sun Belt 2-10 2.3 (0.3) 3.0% -23.5 127 14.7 127 36.9 111 -1.3 108 0.970 120
Rice C-USA 1-11 2.3 (1.3) 3.0% -23.6 128 19.2 118 40.9 126 -1.9 117 0.951 96
Charlotte C-USA 1-11 1.4 (0.4) 1.9% -26.1 129 13.7 129 37.7 115 -2.1 121 0.967 116
UTEP C-USA 0-12 0.7 (0.7) 1.5% -27.4 130 12.8 130 38.7 118 -1.5 112 0.941 87