2005 COLLEGE FOOTBALL S/P+ RATINGS

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The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Texas Big 12 13-0 11.9 (-1.1) 98.9% 35.3 1 47.6 2 12.2 10 0.825 7
USC Pac-10 12-1 12.2 (0.2) 98.8% 34.7 2 51.6 1 16.9 22 0.839 15
Ohio State Big Ten 10-2 9.9 (-0.1) 97.8% 31.2 3 42.1 4 10.9 5 0.805 1
Penn State Big Ten 11-1 10.3 (-0.7) 97.0% 29.3 4 38.2 14 9.0 3 0.872 31
Miami-FL ACC 9-3 10.1 (1.1) 95.3% 26.0 5 33.0 31 7.0 1 0.899 57
Virginia Tech ACC 11-2 10.1 (-0.9) 94.9% 25.5 6 35.6 20 10.1 4 0.883 40
Texas Tech Big 12 9-3 9.4 (0.4) 94.8% 25.4 7 40.8 7 15.4 17 0.873 33
Georgia SEC 10-3 10.3 (0.3) 92.2% 22.3 8 36.1 18 13.8 13 0.900 59
Notre Dame Ind 9-3 8.7 (-0.3) 91.7% 21.8 9 41.3 6 19.5 33 0.837 13
Iowa Big Ten 7-5 8.9 (1.9) 90.8% 20.9 10 38.5 13 17.6 27 0.875 34
Auburn SEC 9-3 9.8 (0.8) 90.6% 20.7 11 35.4 21 14.7 16 0.896 54
LSU SEC 11-2 8.9 (-2.1) 90.1% 20.3 12 32.0 35 11.7 8 0.867 29
Louisville Big East 9-3 9.7 (0.7) 90.1% 20.3 13 41.5 5 21.2 39 0.928 71
Alabama SEC 10-2 9.0 (-1.0) 89.5% 19.8 14 28.1 53 8.3 2 0.885 44
Boston College ACC 9-3 9.7 (0.7) 88.8% 19.2 15 30.4 40 11.2 6 0.916 67
Oklahoma Big 12 8-4 7.5 (-0.5) 88.5% 19.0 16 30.9 39 11.9 9 0.843 16
California Pac-10 8-4 8.7 (0.7) 87.6% 18.4 17 35.8 19 17.5 25 0.894 53
Oregon Pac-10 10-2 8.3 (-1.7) 87.3% 18.1 18 35.0 24 16.9 21 0.863 25
Michigan Big Ten 7-5 6.3 (-0.7) 87.3% 18.1 19 33.9 27 15.8 18 0.812 2
Minnesota Big Ten 7-5 7.7 (0.7) 84.0% 15.9 20 40.7 8 24.7 48 0.834 8
West Virginia Big East 11-1 8.1 (-2.9) 83.8% 15.8 21 33.3 29 17.6 26 0.893 50
Iowa State Big 12 7-5 8.2 (1.2) 78.7% 13.0 22 27.7 58 14.7 15 0.914 66
Washington State Pac-10 4-7 6.6 (2.6) 78.7% 13.0 23 39.6 10 26.6 61 0.873 32
Michigan State Big Ten 5-6 5.5 (0.5) 78.6% 12.9 24 40.1 9 27.2 64 0.825 6
Clemson ACC 8-4 7.4 (-0.6) 78.5% 12.9 25 31.1 38 18.2 29 0.893 51
Arizona State Pac-10 7-5 6.7 (-0.3) 77.7% 12.5 26 42.4 3 29.9 80 0.865 26
Tennessee SEC 5-6 6.3 (1.3) 77.3% 12.3 27 23.7 75 11.4 7 0.875 35
Purdue Big Ten 5-6 5.9 (0.9) 76.4% 11.8 28 37.1 15 25.3 52 0.850 21
Colorado Big 12 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 76.3% 11.7 29 27.8 57 16.1 20 0.819 4
Wisconsin Big Ten 10-3 7.1 (-2.9) 74.9% 11.1 30 35.3 22 24.2 46 0.867 28
Fresno State WAC 8-5 9.5 (1.5) 73.9% 10.6 31 36.4 17 25.8 57 0.919 70
Arkansas SEC 4-7 6.3 (2.3) 73.8% 10.6 32 29.0 46 18.4 31 0.837 12
TCU MWC 11-1 8.7 (-2.3) 73.7% 10.5 33 28.3 52 17.7 28 0.945 84
Nebraska Big 12 8-4 6.0 (-2.0) 73.2% 10.3 34 24.2 73 13.8 12 0.877 36
NC State ACC 7-5 7.1 (0.1) 71.2% 9.4 35 22.1 84 12.7 11 0.906 60
Maryland ACC 5-6 6.5 (1.5) 70.1% 9.0 36 30.3 41 21.4 40 0.887 46
UCLA Pac-10 10-2 6.7 (-3.3) 69.5% 8.7 37 39.2 11 30.5 83 0.866 27
Kansas Big 12 7-5 6.8 (-0.2) 69.0% 8.5 38 22.5 82 14.0 14 0.852 22
Northwestern Big Ten 7-5 6.0 (-1.0) 67.8% 8.0 39 38.8 12 30.9 84 0.820 5
Toledo MAC 9-3 9.0 (0.0) 66.8% 7.6 40 32.7 32 25.1 50 0.976 115
Texas A&M Big 12 5-6 4.9 (-0.1) 66.3% 7.3 41 36.9 16 29.6 76 0.839 14
Utah MWC 7-5 7.6 (0.6) 66.0% 7.2 42 33.6 28 26.4 59 0.963 100
Georgia Tech ACC 7-5 6.0 (-1.0) 65.1% 6.9 43 22.7 81 15.8 19 0.850 20
Pittsburgh Big East 5-6 6.5 (1.5) 64.9% 6.8 44 23.9 74 17.1 23 0.908 62
Florida SEC 9-3 7.7 (-1.3) 64.7% 6.7 45 26.3 67 19.6 34 0.880 39
South Carolina SEC 7-5 6.6 (-0.4) 63.8% 6.3 46 26.3 66 20.0 36 0.883 41
Kansas State Big 12 5-6 4.4 (-0.6) 63.3% 6.1 47 25.9 69 19.8 35 0.887 45
Northern Illinois MAC 7-5 8.1 (1.1) 62.7% 5.9 48 34.4 25 28.5 71 0.959 95
Missouri Big 12 7-5 5.9 (-1.1) 62.1% 5.7 49 28.9 47 23.2 41 0.888 47
Virginia ACC 7-5 5.6 (-1.4) 61.8% 5.6 50 29.2 45 23.6 44 0.878 38
Florida State ACC 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 61.5% 5.4 51 23.7 76 18.2 30 0.849 18
Boise State WAC 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 59.1% 4.5 52 29.5 43 24.9 49 0.939 76
Rutgers Big East 7-5 8.4 (1.4) 57.7% 4.0 53 29.5 42 25.5 54 0.933 72
BYU MWC 6-6 6.4 (0.4) 54.6% 2.8 54 35.3 23 32.5 92 0.909 64
UTEP C-USA 8-4 8.0 (0.0) 53.5% 2.4 55 31.1 37 28.7 72 0.976 116
South Florida Big East 6-6 5.8 (-0.2) 53.3% 2.3 56 22.4 83 20.1 38 0.868 30
UAB C-USA 5-6 8.2 (3.2) 53.3% 2.3 57 33.3 30 31.0 88 0.974 111
Washington Pac-10 2-9 4.0 (2.0) 52.1% 1.9 58 29.3 44 27.5 67 0.836 11
Arizona Pac-10 3-8 3.8 (0.8) 51.1% 1.5 59 26.9 62 25.4 53 0.855 24
Tulsa C-USA 9-4 8.3 (-0.7) 51.1% 1.5 60 27.8 56 26.4 60 0.945 83
Oregon State Pac-10 5-6 5.0 (0.0) 51.0% 1.5 61 26.6 64 25.2 51 0.884 42
Connecticut Big East 5-6 5.1 (0.1) 50.9% 1.4 62 18.8 94 17.4 24 0.934 73
Baylor Big 12 5-6 5.6 (0.6) 50.5% 1.2 63 20.2 88 19.0 32 0.849 19
Southern Miss C-USA 7-5 6.5 (-0.5) 50.0% 1.1 64 27.9 55 26.8 62 0.955 88
Oklahoma State Big 12 4-7 3.9 (-0.1) 50.0% 1.1 65 25.4 72 24.3 47 0.848 17
Stanford Pac-10 5-6 4.5 (-0.5) 48.9% 0.6 66 26.4 65 25.7 55 0.835 9
Miami-OH MAC 7-4 6.7 (-0.3) 48.0% 0.3 67 27.6 59 27.3 66 0.942 79
New Mexico MWC 6-5 5.4 (-0.6) 47.6% 0.2 68 28.0 54 27.8 68 0.958 89
Bowling Green MAC 6-5 6.8 (0.8) 44.7% -0.9 69 28.8 48 29.8 78 0.970 108
Houston C-USA 6-6 8.0 (2.0) 44.5% -1.0 70 28.6 50 29.6 77 0.958 91
Navy Ind 8-4 7.8 (-0.2) 41.6% -2.1 71 32.4 33 34.5 98 0.955 87
San Diego State MWC 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 40.7% -2.4 72 26.7 63 29.1 74 0.919 69
Colorado State MWC 6-6 4.9 (-1.1) 39.6% -2.9 73 31.4 36 34.3 96 0.941 78
Hawaii WAC 5-7 6.4 (1.4) 39.5% -2.9 74 34.2 26 37.1 109 0.910 65
Memphis C-USA 7-5 5.9 (-1.1) 38.2% -3.4 75 27.5 60 31.0 86 0.965 105
Air Force MWC 4-7 5.4 (1.4) 38.1% -3.4 76 32.1 34 35.5 104 0.961 97
North Carolina ACC 5-6 3.5 (-1.5) 37.9% -3.5 77 19.9 91 23.4 43 0.836 10
Vanderbilt SEC 5-6 4.9 (-0.1) 37.2% -3.8 78 28.6 49 32.4 91 0.907 61
Wake Forest ACC 4-7 3.1 (-0.9) 37.1% -3.9 79 23.3 79 27.1 63 0.885 43
Wyoming MWC 4-7 5.6 (1.6) 36.7% -4.0 80 23.3 78 27.3 65 0.958 90
Ole Miss SEC 3-8 3.6 (0.6) 36.1% -4.2 81 15.7 103 20.0 37 0.898 56
East Carolina C-USA 5-6 6.0 (1.0) 35.2% -4.6 82 27.3 61 31.9 89 0.965 104
Indiana Big Ten 4-7 3.9 (-0.1) 34.9% -4.7 83 26.2 68 30.9 85 0.854 23
Akron MAC 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 32.2% -5.8 84 19.9 90 25.7 56 0.970 109
Louisiana Tech WAC 7-4 6.3 (-0.7) 31.8% -6.0 85 23.4 77 29.4 75 0.964 102
Nevada WAC 9-3 6.7 (-2.3) 30.6% -6.5 86 28.4 51 34.9 101 0.967 106
Mississippi State SEC 3-8 3.7 (0.7) 29.3% -7.0 87 16.7 100 23.7 45 0.878 37
Central Michigan MAC 6-5 6.2 (0.2) 27.0% -8.1 88 22.1 85 30.1 81 0.937 75
Illinois Big Ten 2-9 2.0 (0.0) 25.5% -8.8 89 25.6 71 34.3 97 0.817 3
Marshall C-USA 4-7 4.1 (0.1) 24.2% -9.4 90 18.6 96 27.9 69 0.943 80
Cincinnati Big East 4-7 3.7 (-0.3) 23.2% -9.9 91 18.4 98 28.2 70 0.894 52
Syracuse Big East 1-10 1.5 (0.5) 21.4% -10.7 92 12.6 112 23.4 42 0.899 58
Central Florida C-USA 8-5 4.0 (-4.0) 19.6% -11.7 93 25.8 70 37.5 111 0.973 110
Kentucky SEC 3-8 2.3 (-0.7) 18.1% -12.5 94 21.4 86 33.9 94 0.891 49
SMU C-USA 5-6 3.5 (-1.5) 17.3% -13.0 95 16.0 102 29.0 73 0.960 96
Western Michigan MAC 7-4 5.3 (-1.7) 15.7% -13.9 96 22.9 80 36.9 108 0.975 113
San Jose State WAC 3-8 4.2 (1.2) 14.6% -14.7 97 18.6 95 33.3 93 0.976 114
Middle Tennessee Sun Belt 4-7 4.9 (0.9) 13.7% -15.3 98 14.6 109 29.9 79 0.963 101
UNLV MWC 2-9 3.3 (1.3) 13.6% -15.3 99 19.8 92 35.1 103 0.964 103
Arkansas State Sun Belt 6-6 6.2 (0.2) 13.2% -15.6 100 18.5 97 34.1 95 0.986 119
Army Ind 4-7 3.8 (-0.2) 12.3% -16.3 101 14.7 108 31.0 87 0.939 77
Tulane C-USA 2-9 3.5 (1.5) 11.1% -17.1 102 14.8 106 31.9 90 0.980 117
Troy Sun Belt 4-7 4.5 (0.5) 11.0% -17.2 103 8.7 118 26.0 58 0.982 118
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 6-5 4.9 (-1.1) 10.5% -17.7 104 20.8 87 38.5 112 0.944 82
Ball State MAC 4-7 2.4 (-1.6) 9.5% -18.5 105 16.3 101 34.8 100 0.908 63
Eastern Michigan MAC 4-7 4.6 (0.6) 9.5% -18.5 106 19.0 93 37.5 110 0.959 94
Kent State MAC 1-10 2.6 (1.6) 9.0% -19.0 107 11.4 115 30.3 82 0.970 107
Duke ACC 1-10 1.3 (0.3) 7.7% -20.2 108 14.7 107 35.0 102 0.891 48
Ohio MAC 4-7 3.0 (-1.0) 7.2% -20.8 109 15.1 105 35.8 106 0.935 74
Rice C-USA 1-10 1.4 (0.4) 6.4% -21.6 110 20.0 89 41.7 118 0.917 68
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 5-6 4.8 (-0.2) 5.6% -22.6 111 17.3 99 40.0 116 0.959 93
Florida International Sun Belt 5-6 5.0 (0.0) 5.0% -23.5 112 15.3 104 38.7 113 0.959 92
Utah State WAC 3-8 1.9 (-1.1) 4.7% -23.9 113 12.5 113 36.5 107 0.948 86
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 2-9 2.8 (0.8) 4.1% -24.9 114 9.8 116 34.6 99 0.946 85
Idaho WAC 2-9 2.5 (0.5) 4.0% -25.0 115 14.2 110 39.2 115 0.961 98
Buffalo MAC 1-10 1.3 (0.3) 2.3% -28.6 116 7.2 119 35.8 105 0.974 112
Temple Ind 0-11 0.9 (0.9) 2.2% -29.1 117 12.1 114 41.2 117 0.897 55
North Texas Sun Belt 2-9 1.4 (-0.6) 2.1% -29.2 118 9.6 117 38.9 114 0.963 99
New Mexico State WAC 0-12 0.7 (0.7) 2.1% -29.2 119 12.8 111 42.0 119 0.944 81