2006 COLLEGE FOOTBALL S/P+ RATINGS

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The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
LSU SEC 11-2 11.6 (0.6) 97.9% 31.6 1 39.2 4 6.8 2 -0.7 85 0.856 36
USC Pac-10 11-2 11.7 (0.7) 97.4% 30.3 2 37.8 6 9.3 5 1.8 8 0.833 18
Louisville Big East 12-1 11.5 (-0.5) 95.9% 27.3 3 41.3 2 14.4 20 0.5 44 0.874 55
Ohio State Big Ten 12-1 11.1 (-0.9) 95.8% 27.0 4 37.2 10 12.1 10 1.9 4 0.855 33
Florida SEC 13-1 11.7 (-1.3) 95.5% 26.5 5 36.0 11 8.4 3 -1.1 90 0.785 2
West Virginia Big East 11-2 10.7 (-0.3) 94.7% 25.4 6 41.2 3 17.3 28 1.5 14 0.878 59
Oklahoma Big 12 11-3 10.3 (-0.7) 93.2% 23.5 7 34.3 17 12.5 12 1.7 10 0.857 40
Michigan Big Ten 11-2 10.7 (-0.3) 92.3% 22.6 8 32.3 25 9.9 6 0.2 54 0.839 22
Texas Big 12 10-3 8.2 (-1.8) 91.6% 21.9 9 37.4 8 16.4 24 1.0 34 0.845 28
BYU MWC 11-2 11.4 (0.4) 91.6% 21.9 10 37.5 7 16.6 26 1.0 32 0.919 84
Virginia Tech ACC 10-3 9.3 (-0.7) 90.6% 21.0 11 23.6 64 4.6 1 2.0 3 0.884 63
Arkansas SEC 10-4 9.6 (-0.4) 90.2% 20.6 12 34.4 16 13.1 15 -0.7 84 0.784 1
Auburn SEC 11-2 7.4 (-3.6) 88.8% 19.4 13 32.4 24 15.1 22 2.1 1 0.811 7
South Carolina SEC 7-5 8.9 (1.9) 88.4% 19.1 14 38.0 5 20.2 46 1.4 18 0.835 19
Wisconsin Big Ten 12-1 10.1 (-1.9) 88.3% 19.1 15 28.9 37 11.2 7 1.3 21 0.899 69
Tennessee SEC 9-4 7.7 (-1.3) 88.1% 18.9 16 35.9 12 18.3 33 1.3 23 0.794 5
Boise State WAC 13-0 11.0 (-2.0) 87.7% 18.7 17 35.9 13 18.6 36 1.3 19 0.917 82
Texas Tech Big 12 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 86.7% 17.9 18 37.2 9 19.9 44 0.5 42 0.864 44
Georgia SEC 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 86.5% 17.8 19 28.7 39 11.3 8 0.4 46 0.838 21
California Pac-10 10-3 9.9 (-0.1) 86.3% 17.6 20 35.7 14 19.9 45 1.9 7 0.854 32
TCU MWC 11-2 10.0 (-1.0) 85.7% 17.3 21 29.2 36 12.7 13 0.8 37 0.922 87
Clemson ACC 8-5 9.8 (1.8) 84.9% 16.7 22 31.5 32 13.7 17 -1.1 92 0.883 62
Rutgers Big East 11-2 9.3 (-1.7) 81.7% 14.8 23 27.9 41 14.1 19 1.1 30 0.874 54
Boston College ACC 10-3 8.8 (-1.2) 81.6% 14.8 24 29.5 35 14.6 21 -0.1 62 0.877 58
Nebraska Big 12 9-5 9.2 (0.2) 81.6% 14.7 25 31.5 31 17.7 30 0.9 35 0.828 13
Pittsburgh Big East 6-6 7.1 (1.1) 81.0% 14.4 26 31.9 29 18.8 37 1.4 17 0.867 50
Missouri Big 12 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 80.9% 14.4 27 32.1 26 18.2 32 0.4 47 0.881 60
Miami-FL ACC 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 80.1% 13.9 28 23.6 63 9.3 4 -0.3 72 0.867 49
Oklahoma State Big 12 7-6 8.2 (1.2) 79.6% 13.7 29 35.6 15 23.9 66 2.0 2 0.856 37
Georgia Tech ACC 9-5 9.8 (0.8) 79.3% 13.5 30 26.2 47 13.2 16 0.5 43 0.858 41
Iowa Big Ten 6-7 8.2 (2.2) 79.1% 13.4 31 32.0 27 18.4 35 -0.1 63 0.862 42
Arizona State Pac-10 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 78.9% 13.3 32 31.7 30 19.7 42 1.3 24 0.864 45
Hawaii WAC 11-3 12.0 (1.0) 78.4% 13.1 33 42.6 1 30.0 92 0.5 45 0.928 93
Penn State Big Ten 9-4 7.4 (-1.6) 77.8% 12.7 34 24.9 56 12.0 9 -0.2 65 0.857 39
Utah MWC 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 76.2% 12.0 35 29.8 34 19.5 41 1.7 11 0.905 74
Florida State ACC 7-6 7.7 (0.7) 76.0% 11.9 36 25.5 50 13.9 18 0.3 52 0.877 57
Notre Dame Ind 10-3 8.2 (-1.8) 75.3% 11.5 37 34.2 18 22.1 54 -0.6 78 0.832 16
Alabama SEC 6-7 6.9 (0.9) 75.0% 11.4 38 28.7 38 16.5 25 -0.8 88 0.812 8
Oregon State Pac-10 10-4 8.2 (-1.8) 74.9% 11.3 39 31.0 33 21.0 47 1.3 20 0.845 29
Oregon Pac-10 7-6 7.8 (0.8) 74.7% 11.2 40 33.3 22 21.5 50 -0.5 75 0.827 12
South Florida Big East 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 73.5% 10.7 41 25.4 52 12.8 14 -1.9 113 0.870 52
Texas A&M Big 12 9-4 7.7 (-1.3) 72.2% 10.1 42 33.6 20 23.6 63 0.1 59 0.844 27
UCLA Pac-10 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 69.2% 8.8 43 23.4 67 15.9 23 1.3 22 0.844 25
Cincinnati Big East 8-5 7.1 (-0.9) 67.0% 7.9 44 23.6 65 16.7 27 1.0 33 0.817 10
Houston C-USA 10-4 11.3 (1.3) 66.3% 7.6 45 33.9 19 25.2 71 -1.1 93 0.934 97
Washington State Pac-10 6-6 6.5 (0.5) 65.8% 7.4 46 28.5 40 19.2 40 -1.9 114 0.844 26
Kansas Big 12 6-6 6.7 (0.7) 64.7% 6.9 47 27.4 42 21.6 51 1.1 29 0.905 75
Wake Forest ACC 11-3 7.8 (-3.2) 63.5% 6.5 48 23.6 61 18.4 34 1.2 25 0.866 48
Kansas State Big 12 7-6 5.7 (-1.3) 61.8% 5.8 49 23.9 60 19.7 43 1.6 12 0.855 34
Maryland ACC 9-4 6.0 (-3.0) 58.7% 4.6 50 25.2 53 22.1 53 1.5 16 0.864 43
Virginia ACC 5-7 6.6 (1.6) 58.6% 4.6 51 17.0 97 12.3 11 -0.2 66 0.886 65
Purdue Big Ten 8-6 7.4 (-0.6) 58.1% 4.4 52 33.2 23 28.2 87 -0.6 80 0.906 76
Minnesota Big Ten 6-7 6.0 (0.0) 56.6% 3.8 53 31.9 28 27.5 80 -0.6 79 0.831 15
Tulsa C-USA 8-5 8.4 (0.4) 52.2% 2.1 54 27.0 44 25.0 70 0.2 56 0.936 98
Vanderbilt SEC 4-8 6.0 (2.0) 51.4% 1.9 55 25.6 49 22.5 59 -1.3 99 0.813 9
Colorado Big 12 2-10 4.1 (2.1) 51.1% 1.8 56 20.1 82 18.9 38 0.6 40 0.849 30
Kentucky SEC 8-5 5.6 (-2.4) 51.0% 1.7 57 33.3 21 30.8 96 -0.8 89 0.790 4
Nevada WAC 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 48.8% 0.9 58 25.4 51 23.8 65 -0.8 87 0.924 88
Washington Pac-10 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 47.4% 0.3 59 23.3 68 24.1 67 1.1 28 0.830 14
Wyoming MWC 6-6 7.3 (1.3) 47.2% 0.3 60 18.6 91 17.7 29 -0.6 81 0.894 67
NC State ACC 3-9 4.2 (1.2) 47.0% 0.2 61 18.7 90 19.1 39 0.6 41 0.897 68
Southern Miss C-USA 9-5 7.3 (-1.7) 45.6% -0.3 62 23.3 69 23.1 60 -0.5 77 0.912 80
New Mexico MWC 6-7 5.7 (-0.3) 45.1% -0.5 63 19.8 86 21.5 49 1.2 27 0.911 78
East Carolina C-USA 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 44.1% -0.9 64 23.6 62 24.3 68 -0.2 67 0.928 91
Arizona Pac-10 6-6 4.1 (-1.9) 43.8% -1.0 65 15.4 102 17.8 31 1.5 15 0.789 3
Michigan State Big Ten 4-8 4.4 (0.4) 43.0% -1.3 66 25.0 55 26.7 78 0.4 49 0.865 47
San Jose State WAC 9-4 8.1 (-0.9) 41.6% -1.8 67 24.0 59 26.1 75 0.3 51 0.948 106
Navy Ind 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 41.3% -1.9 68 27.0 43 28.3 88 -0.7 82 0.940 100
Northern Illinois MAC 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 39.8% -2.5 69 22.6 71 25.2 72 0.0 60 0.922 86
Illinois Big Ten 2-10 5.5 (3.5) 39.2% -2.8 70 20.1 83 22.3 57 -0.5 76 0.871 53
Connecticut Big East 4-8 4.9 (0.9) 38.9% -2.9 71 20.8 79 22.2 55 -1.5 105 0.852 31
Ole Miss SEC 4-8 3.3 (-0.7) 38.1% -3.2 72 20.1 81 23.7 64 0.4 50 0.827 11
Baylor Big 12 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 37.2% -3.6 73 22.6 73 27.8 84 1.6 13 0.836 20
Syracuse Big East 4-8 3.2 (-0.8) 37.0% -3.6 74 20.2 80 25.7 74 1.9 5 0.833 17
Northwestern Big Ten 4-8 5.0 (1.0) 33.9% -4.9 75 21.3 77 25.0 69 -1.2 96 0.857 38
Colorado State MWC 4-8 5.1 (1.1) 32.6% -5.4 76 18.9 87 23.2 61 -1.1 91 0.914 81
Central Michigan MAC 10-4 8.4 (-1.6) 31.0% -6.1 77 23.5 66 28.8 90 -0.7 83 0.944 102
Akron MAC 5-7 6.7 (1.7) 31.0% -6.1 78 18.0 93 22.3 58 -1.8 112 0.962 117
UTEP C-USA 5-7 5.1 (0.1) 30.6% -6.2 79 25.9 48 32.0 104 -0.2 64 0.951 108
North Carolina ACC 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 30.6% -6.2 80 19.8 85 27.3 79 1.2 26 0.856 35
Kent State MAC 6-6 6.9 (0.9) 30.6% -6.2 81 18.2 92 22.2 56 -2.3 115 0.959 113
Mississippi State SEC 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 29.6% -6.7 82 16.5 98 21.7 52 -1.5 106 0.796 6
Iowa State Big 12 4-8 3.3 (-0.7) 29.4% -6.7 83 24.7 57 31.5 99 0.1 57 0.842 23
Western Michigan MAC 8-5 7.2 (-0.8) 28.7% -7.1 84 14.8 105 21.4 48 -0.4 74 0.960 116
Ball State MAC 5-7 4.3 (-0.7) 27.8% -7.5 85 22.6 72 32.0 105 1.9 6 0.950 107
SMU C-USA 6-6 5.7 (-0.3) 27.3% -7.7 86 20.9 78 30.3 94 1.7 9 0.953 110
Marshall C-USA 5-7 5.2 (0.2) 26.9% -7.9 87 26.7 45 34.2 111 -0.3 70 0.918 83
Fresno State WAC 4-8 4.2 (0.2) 26.4% -8.1 88 21.6 75 29.4 91 -0.3 71 0.885 64
Air Force MWC 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 24.9% -8.8 89 24.0 58 31.7 102 -1.1 95 0.883 61
Ohio MAC 9-5 7.0 (-2.0) 23.3% -9.5 90 12.6 109 23.2 62 1.1 31 0.954 112
Toledo MAC 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 23.1% -9.6 91 16.2 99 26.2 76 0.4 48 0.960 115
Indiana Big Ten 5-7 3.7 (-1.3) 22.5% -9.9 92 21.6 76 31.2 98 -0.3 69 0.865 46
New Mexico State WAC 4-8 6.3 (2.3) 21.9% -10.2 93 26.6 46 35.7 114 -1.2 98 0.946 104
Central Florida C-USA 4-8 5.0 (1.0) 21.7% -10.3 94 21.8 74 32.1 106 0.0 61 0.911 79
Rice C-USA 7-6 4.9 (-2.1) 21.3% -10.5 95 25.1 54 34.4 112 -1.3 100 0.927 90
UAB C-USA 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 19.9% -11.3 96 19.9 84 31.9 103 0.7 39 0.928 92
Troy Sun Belt 8-5 7.1 (-0.9) 19.6% -11.5 97 16.0 101 27.7 83 0.2 53 0.953 109
Miami-OH MAC 2-10 3.8 (1.8) 16.8% -13.0 98 16.1 100 27.5 81 -1.6 108 0.967 118
Memphis C-USA 2-10 3.5 (1.5) 16.6% -13.2 99 23.1 70 35.4 113 -0.8 86 0.945 103
San Diego State MWC 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 16.5% -13.2 100 14.1 107 25.6 73 -1.7 110 0.894 66
Middle Tennessee Sun Belt 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 16.0% -13.5 101 14.8 104 28.1 85 -0.2 68 0.901 72
Stanford Pac-10 1-11 1.6 (0.6) 15.0% -14.1 102 14.8 103 27.6 82 -1.3 104 0.843 24
Bowling Green MAC 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 15.0% -14.1 103 17.2 95 28.7 89 -2.6 117 0.928 94
UNLV MWC 2-10 3.1 (1.1) 14.4% -14.5 104 17.1 96 30.1 93 -1.5 107 0.902 73
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 4-8 5.8 (1.8) 13.7% -15.0 105 17.4 94 32.5 107 0.2 55 0.944 101
Tulane C-USA 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 13.7% -15.0 106 18.9 89 32.6 108 -1.3 101 0.900 70
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 6-6 4.8 (-1.2) 8.4% -19.3 107 11.4 110 30.3 95 -0.3 73 0.928 96
Duke ACC 0-12 2.2 (2.2) 8.1% -19.5 108 13.8 108 31.6 101 -1.6 109 0.869 51
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 8.1% -19.6 109 9.8 115 28.2 86 -1.2 97 0.928 95
Arkansas State Sun Belt 6-6 5.2 (-0.8) 6.0% -21.8 110 11.0 111 31.0 97 -1.8 111 0.954 111
Eastern Michigan MAC 1-11 2.3 (1.3) 5.9% -22.0 111 10.6 113 33.5 109 0.9 36 0.978 119
Louisiana Tech WAC 3-10 3.2 (0.2) 5.7% -22.2 112 18.9 88 39.7 119 -1.3 102 0.908 77
Idaho WAC 4-8 3.6 (-0.4) 4.7% -23.7 113 14.6 106 37.2 115 -1.1 94 0.924 89
Army Ind 3-9 2.0 (-1.0) 4.3% -24.3 114 8.4 116 33.5 110 0.8 38 0.940 99
North Texas Sun Belt 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 4.1% -24.5 115 6.9 118 31.5 100 0.1 58 0.959 114
Florida International Sun Belt 0-12 2.8 (2.8) 1.9% -29.7 116 -0.5 119 26.5 77 -2.7 118 0.947 105
Buffalo MAC 2-10 2.5 (0.5) 1.7% -30.3 117 10.0 114 39.0 117 -1.3 103 0.920 85
Utah State WAC 1-11 0.9 (-0.1) 1.3% -32.1 118 10.6 112 39.7 118 -3.0 119 0.876 56
Temple Ind 1-11 0.7 (-0.3) 1.0% -33.3 119 7.7 117 38.7 116 -2.3 116 0.901 71