2007 COLLEGE FOOTBALL S/P+ RATINGS

Loading, please wait...

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
USC Pac-10 11-2 11.4 (0.4) 97.6% 32.0 1 39.0 14 7.7 1 0.7 40 0.881 48
Oklahoma Big 12 11-3 10.8 (-0.2) 97.1% 30.9 2 44.7 3 16.2 14 2.3 1 0.834 20
Ohio State Big Ten 11-2 11.8 (0.8) 96.4% 29.2 3 37.8 20 9.5 2 1.0 30 0.874 47
LSU SEC 12-2 10.6 (-1.4) 96.2% 28.9 4 41.9 7 14.1 7 1.0 28 0.807 11
Florida SEC 9-4 10.4 (1.4) 96.2% 28.8 5 50.1 1 21.9 44 0.7 39 0.830 19
West Virginia Big East 11-2 11.2 (0.2) 95.8% 28.2 6 41.7 8 14.4 8 0.9 32 0.869 45
Texas Big 12 10-3 9.2 (-0.8) 94.2% 25.8 7 43.4 5 18.9 28 1.4 18 0.857 36
Kansas Big 12 12-1 11.2 (-0.8) 93.6% 24.9 8 40.3 11 15.2 10 -0.2 67 0.900 60
Texas Tech Big 12 9-4 10.5 (1.5) 93.6% 24.9 9 47.0 2 21.7 43 -0.4 75 0.868 44
Georgia SEC 11-2 9.0 (-2.0) 92.4% 23.6 10 38.7 16 16.6 18 1.5 13 0.835 21
Oregon Pac-10 9-4 9.9 (0.9) 92.0% 23.1 11 41.2 9 19.7 35 1.6 9 0.853 35
Missouri Big 12 12-2 10.9 (-1.1) 90.2% 21.4 12 44.0 4 23.0 51 0.5 50 0.800 5
Auburn SEC 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 89.4% 20.7 13 31.3 44 11.3 4 0.7 41 0.807 10
Penn State Big Ten 9-4 9.9 (0.9) 88.8% 20.2 14 35.5 27 16.0 12 0.7 38 0.888 50
Tennessee SEC 10-4 9.2 (-0.8) 88.8% 20.2 15 38.4 17 19.3 33 1.1 26 0.814 14
Virginia Tech ACC 11-3 9.8 (-1.2) 87.7% 19.3 16 27.5 65 10.4 3 2.2 3 0.857 37
Arkansas SEC 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 85.9% 18.0 17 36.8 24 19.0 29 0.2 56 0.844 28
Cincinnati Big East 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 85.1% 17.5 18 37.2 22 19.9 36 0.2 59 0.890 52
Kansas State Big 12 5-7 7.4 (2.4) 85.1% 17.5 19 37.6 21 21.5 42 1.4 16 0.847 32
Boston College ACC 11-3 11.2 (0.2) 83.8% 16.7 20 32.0 38 14.6 9 -0.8 89 0.899 59
California Pac-10 7-6 9.2 (2.2) 83.7% 16.6 21 38.1 18 21.3 41 -0.2 65 0.848 33
South Carolina SEC 6-6 7.4 (1.4) 83.0% 16.2 22 33.2 32 18.4 26 1.3 22 0.801 6
Clemson ACC 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 83.0% 16.2 23 31.6 42 15.2 11 -0.2 66 0.889 51
South Florida Big East 8-4 9.3 (1.3) 82.4% 15.8 24 33.1 33 16.5 15 -0.8 87 0.845 31
BYU MWC 11-2 10.9 (-0.1) 81.7% 15.4 25 31.8 40 16.0 13 -0.4 74 0.935 90
Rutgers Big East 8-5 8.4 (0.4) 79.7% 14.3 26 37.0 23 22.2 46 -0.6 81 0.893 55
Kentucky SEC 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 78.2% 13.4 27 38.8 15 24.9 56 -0.5 78 0.812 12
Michigan Big Ten 9-4 7.7 (-1.3) 77.9% 13.3 28 32.5 36 18.1 24 -1.2 98 0.829 18
Boise State WAC 10-3 9.9 (-0.1) 77.6% 13.1 29 36.2 25 24.4 55 1.3 23 0.968 117
Oklahoma State Big 12 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 77.5% 13.1 30 43.2 6 28.9 67 -1.2 99 0.800 4
Alabama SEC 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 77.0% 12.8 31 30.1 53 17.2 21 -0.1 64 0.845 30
Illinois Big Ten 9-4 8.7 (-0.3) 76.8% 12.7 32 34.7 29 22.9 50 0.9 34 0.836 23
Arizona State Pac-10 10-3 7.5 (-2.5) 76.5% 12.6 33 30.3 50 18.6 27 0.9 33 0.836 24
Purdue Big Ten 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 76.3% 12.4 34 33.2 30 22.2 45 1.4 19 0.902 63
Hawaii WAC 12-1 11.5 (-0.5) 76.1% 12.4 35 39.0 13 27.0 59 0.3 51 0.947 104
Louisville Big East 6-6 6.9 (0.9) 75.6% 12.1 36 40.6 10 29.2 70 0.6 43 0.862 39
Utah MWC 9-4 8.7 (-0.3) 75.2% 11.9 37 26.5 71 16.5 16 1.9 6 0.928 84
Oregon State Pac-10 9-4 8.1 (-0.9) 74.6% 11.6 38 25.6 74 13.5 6 -0.5 77 0.836 25
UCLA Pac-10 6-7 6.4 (0.4) 73.7% 11.2 39 23.1 86 13.4 5 1.5 15 0.829 17
Wisconsin Big Ten 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 71.9% 10.4 40 35.9 26 26.1 58 0.6 44 0.867 42
Nebraska Big 12 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 71.1% 10.0 41 39.1 12 31.2 74 2.1 4 0.803 7
Michigan State Big Ten 7-6 7.7 (0.7) 71.1% 10.0 42 32.1 37 22.5 48 0.3 52 0.866 40
Florida State ACC 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 70.2% 9.6 43 25.9 73 17.5 22 1.2 25 0.858 38
Georgia Tech ACC 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 68.2% 8.7 44 28.1 62 21.3 39 1.8 7 0.891 53
Connecticut Big East 9-4 7.2 (-1.8) 67.8% 8.5 45 26.9 68 18.3 25 -0.1 62 0.882 49
Texas A&M Big 12 7-6 6.0 (-1.0) 65.7% 7.6 46 35.4 28 28.1 65 0.3 53 0.792 2
Pittsburgh Big East 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 65.5% 7.5 47 24.7 77 16.8 19 -0.4 72 0.868 43
Virginia ACC 9-4 7.2 (-1.8) 65.4% 7.5 48 23.3 85 16.9 20 1.0 27 0.899 58
Arizona Pac-10 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 64.9% 7.3 49 26.6 70 21.3 40 1.9 5 0.835 22
Iowa Big Ten 6-6 6.7 (0.7) 63.1% 6.5 50 23.6 82 16.5 17 -0.6 80 0.919 77
Wake Forest ACC 9-4 7.8 (-1.2) 62.8% 6.4 51 23.9 81 19.0 31 1.6 12 0.914 73
TCU MWC 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 62.8% 6.4 52 24.4 78 19.0 30 1.0 29 0.923 82
Maryland ACC 6-7 6.3 (0.3) 61.5% 5.9 53 28.5 60 22.8 49 0.2 58 0.867 41
Air Force MWC 9-4 8.9 (-0.1) 61.0% 5.7 54 30.3 51 25.4 57 0.8 35 0.939 95
Washington Pac-10 4-9 4.8 (0.8) 59.9% 5.2 55 33.0 34 28.0 63 0.2 57 0.805 9
New Mexico MWC 9-4 7.5 (-1.5) 57.9% 4.4 56 22.5 89 19.4 34 1.4 17 0.946 103
Colorado Big 12 6-7 4.9 (-1.1) 57.3% 4.2 57 29.1 56 23.9 54 -0.9 93 0.812 13
Central Florida C-USA 10-4 9.4 (-0.6) 55.6% 3.5 58 30.5 49 28.5 66 1.5 14 0.936 93
Miami-FL ACC 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 54.9% 3.2 59 25.0 76 19.9 37 -1.9 114 0.872 46
Washington State Pac-10 5-7 5.7 (0.7) 54.7% 3.2 60 31.7 41 27.8 61 -0.8 84 0.843 27
Vanderbilt SEC 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 53.0% 2.5 61 22.1 91 19.0 32 -0.5 79 0.826 16
Mississippi State SEC 7-5 5.7 (-1.3) 51.7% 2.0 62 20.2 100 17.8 23 -0.4 73 0.815 15
North Carolina ACC 4-8 5.8 (1.8) 51.3% 1.9 63 23.6 83 23.3 53 1.6 10 0.900 61
Fresno State WAC 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 51.3% 1.8 64 33.2 31 32.0 77 0.6 45 0.912 72
Indiana Big Ten 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 45.9% -0.2 65 27.9 64 29.3 71 1.2 24 0.909 69
Tulsa C-USA 10-4 9.2 (-0.8) 45.7% -0.4 66 37.9 19 36.4 100 -1.9 115 0.933 88
Southern Miss C-USA 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 45.4% -0.5 67 26.9 69 28.1 64 0.8 36 0.935 92
East Carolina C-USA 8-5 7.0 (-1.0) 44.7% -0.7 68 29.6 55 29.0 68 -1.3 101 0.912 71
NC State ACC 4-7 4.5 (0.5) 43.8% -1.1 69 20.6 96 22.4 47 0.8 37 0.901 62
Northwestern Big Ten 6-6 5.5 (-0.5) 40.6% -2.4 70 30.1 54 31.7 75 -0.7 83 0.895 57
Troy Sun Belt 8-4 7.1 (-0.9) 40.4% -2.4 71 26.2 72 29.9 73 1.3 20 0.895 56
Ole Miss SEC 3-9 3.4 (0.4) 39.8% -2.7 72 28.1 63 29.0 69 -1.7 111 0.797 3
Bowling Green MAC 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 37.0% -3.8 73 31.2 45 35.7 96 0.7 42 0.966 116
Nevada WAC 6-7 7.7 (1.7) 36.0% -4.2 74 31.5 43 35.3 94 -0.4 70 0.953 108
Ball State MAC 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 35.0% -4.6 75 29.0 57 33.6 82 0.0 61 0.957 112
Houston C-USA 8-5 7.1 (-0.9) 34.7% -4.7 76 30.9 47 34.2 86 -1.5 104 0.944 100
Wyoming MWC 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 34.2% -5.0 77 15.9 112 21.0 38 0.1 60 0.926 83
Stanford Pac-10 4-8 2.3 (-1.7) 30.1% -6.7 78 21.0 94 27.4 60 -0.3 69 0.843 26
UTEP C-USA 4-8 3.7 (-0.3) 29.6% -7.0 79 32.0 39 40.6 111 1.6 11 0.944 99
Minnesota Big Ten 1-11 2.7 (1.7) 28.2% -7.6 80 30.6 48 38.8 104 0.5 49 0.892 54
Colorado State MWC 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 28.1% -7.7 81 27.2 66 35.4 95 0.6 47 0.922 81
Iowa State Big 12 3-9 2.1 (-0.9) 25.0% -9.1 82 20.6 97 28.0 62 -1.7 110 0.788 1
Marshall C-USA 3-9 4.7 (1.7) 25.0% -9.1 83 31.1 46 39.4 106 -0.8 90 0.919 76
Notre Dame Ind 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 23.9% -9.7 84 15.1 115 23.3 52 -1.5 105 0.845 29
Navy Ind 8-5 6.1 (-1.9) 23.6% -9.8 85 32.6 35 41.6 117 -0.8 86 0.951 107
Central Michigan MAC 8-6 7.7 (-0.3) 22.1% -10.6 86 30.2 52 39.8 107 -1.0 96 0.931 85
Ohio MAC 5-6 6.3 (1.3) 20.7% -11.3 87 22.9 88 34.8 89 0.6 46 0.971 118
Syracuse Big East 2-10 1.9 (-0.1) 20.1% -11.7 88 22.0 92 33.6 83 -0.1 63 0.852 34
Miami-OH MAC 6-7 5.3 (-0.7) 19.9% -11.8 89 18.9 103 29.4 72 -1.3 102 0.964 115
Western Michigan MAC 5-7 5.7 (0.7) 19.2% -12.1 90 22.4 90 34.1 84 -0.5 76 0.921 78
Kent State MAC 3-9 4.8 (1.8) 18.8% -12.4 91 21.9 93 33.4 81 -0.9 91 0.939 97
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 8-5 6.5 (-1.5) 18.6% -12.5 92 25.1 75 36.1 97 -1.5 106 0.917 75
San Diego State MWC 4-8 3.5 (-0.5) 18.4% -12.6 93 24.4 79 39.2 105 2.2 2 0.910 70
Toledo MAC 5-7 3.8 (-1.2) 18.0% -12.8 94 28.8 59 42.9 119 1.3 21 0.947 105
Memphis C-USA 7-6 5.1 (-1.9) 18.0% -12.9 95 27.0 67 38.3 103 -1.6 108 0.983 120
SMU C-USA 1-11 4.5 (3.5) 17.1% -13.4 96 28.9 58 43.2 120 0.9 31 0.944 101
UNLV MWC 2-10 3.0 (1.0) 17.0% -13.5 97 18.6 105 32.6 79 0.6 48 0.922 80
Baylor Big 12 3-9 2.7 (-0.3) 16.8% -13.6 98 23.5 84 34.5 87 -2.6 118 0.804 8
Rice C-USA 3-9 4.0 (1.0) 15.5% -14.4 99 28.3 61 41.4 115 -1.4 103 0.921 79
Louisiana Tech WAC 4-7 4.2 (0.2) 14.9% -14.8 100 18.4 106 32.4 78 -0.8 85 0.906 65
Tulane C-USA 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 13.8% -15.5 101 23.0 87 37.7 102 -0.8 88 0.945 102
Arkansas State Sun Belt 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 13.3% -15.9 102 19.0 102 33.2 80 -1.8 112 0.934 89
San Jose State WAC 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 13.2% -16.0 103 20.3 99 34.7 88 -1.6 107 0.932 87
Middle Tennessee Sun Belt 5-7 4.5 (-0.5) 13.1% -16.1 104 20.0 101 35.1 91 -1.0 95 0.935 91
Northern Illinois MAC 2-10 3.9 (1.9) 11.9% -17.0 105 18.7 104 35.1 92 -0.6 82 0.976 119
Akron MAC 4-8 3.4 (-0.6) 11.1% -17.6 106 16.3 110 34.1 85 0.3 55 0.941 98
New Mexico State WAC 3-9 5.1 (2.1) 9.9% -18.7 107 24.2 80 40.4 110 -2.5 117 0.939 96
Temple MAC 4-8 4.4 (0.4) 9.5% -19.0 108 14.9 117 31.7 76 -2.2 116 0.961 113
Buffalo MAC 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 8.3% -20.1 109 17.7 109 37.5 101 -0.3 68 0.953 109
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 6-6 4.6 (-1.4) 7.5% -21.0 110 16.3 111 36.2 98 -1.1 97 0.953 110
UAB C-USA 2-10 2.0 (0.0) 6.9% -21.7 111 17.8 108 41.2 114 1.7 8 0.956 111
Duke ACC 1-11 2.0 (1.0) 6.6% -22.0 112 15.7 113 34.8 90 -2.9 120 0.903 64
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 6.4% -22.3 113 21.0 95 42.4 118 -0.9 92 0.948 106
Western Kentucky Ind 1-5 1.8 (0.8) 6.2% -22.5 114 15.6 114 36.3 99 -1.8 113 0.907 66
North Texas Sun Belt 2-10 4.5 (2.5) 5.9% -22.8 115 20.3 98 40.3 109 -2.9 119 0.931 86
Eastern Michigan MAC 4-8 3.1 (-0.9) 4.6% -24.8 116 18.0 107 41.5 116 -1.3 100 0.964 114
Idaho WAC 1-11 2.6 (1.6) 4.2% -25.5 117 15.1 116 41.0 113 0.3 54 0.915 74
Utah State WAC 2-10 1.2 (-0.8) 3.1% -27.6 118 13.3 118 40.0 108 -0.9 94 0.908 68
Army Ind 3-9 1.7 (-1.3) 2.7% -28.4 119 7.3 120 35.3 93 -0.4 71 0.937 94
Florida International Sun Belt 1-11 1.8 (0.8) 1.4% -32.9 120 9.6 119 40.9 112 -1.6 109 0.907 67