2008 COLLEGE FOOTBALL S/P+ RATINGS

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
USC Pac-10 12-1 12.3 (0.3) 99.2% 37.0 1 44.4 5 7.2 2 -0.3 64 0.884 28
Texas Big 12 12-1 10.9 (-1.1) 99.1% 36.0 2 50.3 2 15.8 16 1.5 17 0.855 11
Florida SEC 13-1 13.1 (0.1) 98.8% 34.7 3 43.7 7 11.2 6 2.2 8 0.865 15
Oklahoma Big 12 12-2 11.7 (-0.3) 98.3% 32.4 4 52.3 1 18.1 23 -1.8 109 0.814 1
Penn State Big Ten 11-2 11.1 (0.1) 97.2% 29.5 5 41.1 10 13.5 10 2.0 10 0.879 23
Iowa Big Ten 9-4 11.0 (2.0) 94.9% 25.5 6 35.4 19 10.9 4 1.0 29 0.929 55
Missouri Big 12 10-4 10.3 (0.3) 93.6% 24.0 7 43.8 6 22.3 49 2.5 3 0.863 13
Oklahoma State Big 12 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 93.2% 23.4 8 46.5 4 24.5 56 1.4 21 0.850 5
Texas Tech Big 12 11-2 9.8 (-1.2) 92.8% 23.0 9 49.8 3 25.5 66 -1.2 102 0.851 10
Alabama SEC 12-2 10.9 (-1.1) 92.8% 23.0 10 34.2 23 10.9 5 -0.3 68 0.883 26
Ohio State Big Ten 10-3 8.8 (-1.2) 92.5% 22.7 11 32.7 31 12.2 8 2.3 7 0.850 6
Georgia SEC 10-3 9.3 (-0.7) 90.6% 20.9 12 39.2 13 18.3 26 0.1 55 0.891 32
LSU SEC 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 90.4% 20.8 13 35.7 18 17.5 20 2.6 2 0.889 31
Boise State WAC 12-1 11.7 (-0.3) 89.2% 19.8 14 33.8 25 15.0 14 1.0 30 0.959 85
Oregon Pac-10 10-3 9.9 (-0.1) 89.0% 19.6 15 38.4 16 18.3 25 -0.5 80 0.874 21
TCU MWC 11-2 11.5 (0.5) 88.5% 19.2 16 30.5 37 11.8 7 0.5 45 0.919 49
Nebraska Big 12 9-4 8.6 (-0.4) 88.0% 18.9 17 42.0 8 23.8 55 0.7 36 0.885 29
Florida State ACC 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 87.8% 18.7 18 33.8 27 17.7 21 2.6 1 0.907 44
Utah MWC 13-0 10.5 (-2.5) 87.0% 18.2 19 31.5 34 15.6 15 2.3 6 0.939 67
California Pac-10 9-4 9.2 (0.2) 86.8% 18.0 20 32.7 30 14.3 13 -0.4 69 0.894 34
Ole Miss SEC 9-4 8.5 (-0.5) 85.4% 17.1 21 35.1 21 19.6 36 1.6 15 0.884 27
Arizona Pac-10 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 84.2% 16.3 22 34.9 22 20.5 43 1.9 13 0.900 38
Kansas Big 12 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 83.6% 16.0 23 41.9 9 25.4 64 -0.5 73 0.850 7
Ball State MAC 12-2 12.0 (0.0) 80.5% 14.3 24 38.9 15 26.1 69 1.5 16 0.989 120
Oregon State Pac-10 9-4 9.2 (0.2) 80.4% 14.2 25 33.7 28 19.1 31 -0.4 71 0.856 12
Clemson ACC 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 77.5% 12.8 26 27.0 57 14.2 12 0.0 58 0.919 48
BYU MWC 10-3 9.9 (-0.1) 76.3% 12.2 27 38.3 17 26.3 70 0.1 53 0.952 80
Tennessee SEC 5-7 7.3 (2.3) 75.8% 12.0 28 19.3 97 6.8 1 -0.5 75 0.900 40
Boston College ACC 9-5 9.0 (0.0) 73.7% 11.0 29 23.0 79 10.0 3 -2.0 112 0.941 70
Miami-FL ACC 7-6 5.9 (-1.1) 73.4% 10.9 30 26.8 59 17.9 22 2.0 9 0.904 42
Wisconsin Big Ten 7-6 7.7 (0.7) 72.6% 10.5 31 31.3 35 22.0 48 1.2 24 0.892 33
North Carolina ACC 8-5 8.9 (0.9) 72.0% 10.2 32 27.1 56 17.5 19 0.6 38 0.950 79
Pittsburgh Big East 9-4 8.1 (-0.9) 68.9% 9.0 33 26.2 63 19.2 33 1.9 11 0.935 61
Illinois Big Ten 5-7 7.0 (2.0) 68.8% 8.9 34 33.2 29 23.8 54 -0.5 78 0.875 22
Cincinnati Big East 11-3 9.7 (-1.3) 68.0% 8.6 35 25.9 64 19.7 38 2.4 4 0.938 65
Georgia Tech ACC 8-4 8.5 (0.5) 68.0% 8.6 36 29.5 41 18.9 29 -2.0 111 0.913 45
Virginia Tech ACC 10-4 6.7 (-3.3) 66.9% 8.1 37 20.6 89 13.1 9 0.6 39 0.928 54
South Florida Big East 8-5 8.9 (0.9) 66.6% 8.0 38 28.8 49 20.9 45 0.1 52 0.961 89
South Carolina SEC 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 66.0% 7.8 39 23.7 75 16.3 17 0.4 48 0.863 14
Maryland ACC 8-5 7.2 (-0.8) 65.4% 7.6 40 28.8 48 21.6 47 0.3 49 0.933 58
Northwestern Big Ten 9-4 8.5 (-0.5) 64.6% 7.3 41 26.7 60 19.3 34 -0.1 62 0.914 46
Tulsa C-USA 11-2 10.8 (-0.2) 64.1% 7.0 42 39.3 12 31.8 89 -0.5 74 0.974 115
Notre Dame Ind 7-6 7.7 (0.7) 63.3% 6.8 43 26.7 61 19.0 30 -1.0 92 0.923 51
Michigan State Big Ten 9-4 6.3 (-2.7) 63.0% 6.6 44 24.9 68 19.8 40 1.5 19 0.872 17
Houston C-USA 8-5 9.2 (1.2) 62.5% 6.4 45 39.2 14 31.5 85 -1.2 103 0.961 87
Wake Forest ACC 8-5 7.5 (-0.5) 62.5% 6.4 46 20.3 91 13.6 11 -0.2 63 0.933 57
West Virginia Big East 9-4 7.8 (-1.2) 61.9% 6.2 47 25.5 65 21.1 46 1.7 14 0.962 92
Kansas State Big 12 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 61.4% 6.0 48 35.3 20 30.3 82 1.0 28 0.882 25
Troy Sun Belt 8-5 9.3 (1.3) 58.6% 5.0 49 27.8 52 22.6 52 -0.3 65 0.937 64
Connecticut Big East 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 58.3% 4.9 50 22.3 84 18.3 24 0.8 35 0.963 94
Arkansas SEC 4-8 5.9 (1.9) 58.2% 4.8 51 32.3 32 25.8 68 -1.7 107 0.842 4
Rice C-USA 10-3 8.4 (-1.6) 58.1% 4.8 52 40.5 11 35.1 104 -0.6 82 0.940 68
Baylor Big 12 4-8 5.6 (1.6) 56.1% 4.0 53 32.3 33 27.4 74 -0.9 90 0.820 2
Arizona State Pac-10 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 54.3% 3.4 54 22.3 85 19.8 39 0.8 33 0.873 20
Southern Miss C-USA 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 53.4% 3.1 55 31.0 36 27.0 72 -1.0 91 0.967 103
Minnesota Big Ten 7-6 6.0 (-1.0) 53.3% 3.0 56 26.8 58 25.0 60 1.2 25 0.917 47
Rutgers Big East 9-4 8.0 (-1.0) 51.8% 2.4 57 28.8 50 25.2 61 -1.1 99 0.963 93
Purdue Big Ten 4-8 4.2 (0.2) 51.7% 2.4 58 24.6 69 20.6 44 -1.6 106 0.880 24
Bowling Green MAC 6-6 6.7 (0.7) 51.6% 2.4 59 29.2 45 25.7 67 -1.0 96 0.969 107
Stanford Pac-10 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 51.0% 2.2 60 30.2 38 29.5 76 1.5 18 0.870 16
NC State ACC 6-7 5.1 (-0.9) 49.9% 1.8 61 27.4 55 26.8 71 1.2 26 0.931 56
Michigan Big Ten 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 49.4% 1.6 62 20.5 90 19.2 32 0.2 50 0.895 35
Auburn SEC 4-8 4.9 (0.9) 48.9% 1.4 63 19.7 94 17.4 18 -0.8 86 0.905 43
East Carolina C-USA 9-5 8.5 (-0.5) 48.7% 1.3 64 21.9 86 20.2 41 -0.3 67 0.971 111
Nevada WAC 7-6 8.6 (1.6) 47.6% 0.9 65 34.0 24 33.0 92 0.0 59 0.934 60
UCLA Pac-10 4-8 4.6 (0.6) 44.8% -0.1 66 18.7 101 19.6 37 0.8 32 0.873 18
Virginia ACC 5-7 4.5 (-0.5) 43.6% -0.6 67 19.0 99 18.6 28 -1.0 94 0.900 39
Air Force MWC 8-5 6.5 (-1.5) 43.1% -0.7 68 23.0 80 24.6 58 0.9 31 0.950 78
Northern Illinois MAC 6-7 6.4 (0.4) 40.7% -1.6 69 23.3 76 25.5 65 0.6 43 0.972 112
Kentucky SEC 7-6 5.3 (-1.7) 40.1% -1.8 70 18.1 103 19.5 35 -0.4 72 0.900 41
Vanderbilt SEC 7-6 5.0 (-2.0) 39.8% -2.0 71 15.9 113 18.5 27 0.6 40 0.897 36
New Mexico MWC 4-8 5.4 (1.4) 39.6% -2.0 72 18.2 102 20.2 42 0.0 60 0.937 63
Colorado Big 12 5-7 4.0 (-1.0) 37.9% -2.7 73 23.0 78 23.2 53 -2.5 118 0.851 9
UTEP C-USA 5-7 4.2 (-0.8) 37.8% -2.7 74 33.8 26 38.8 113 2.3 5 0.934 59
Iowa State Big 12 2-10 2.9 (0.9) 37.5% -2.8 75 29.2 44 33.2 95 1.2 23 0.888 30
Louisville Big East 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 37.0% -3.0 76 24.6 70 25.3 62 -2.3 116 0.963 95
Western Michigan MAC 9-4 7.7 (-1.3) 36.9% -3.1 77 28.0 51 29.8 80 -1.3 104 0.962 90
Colorado State MWC 7-6 5.7 (-1.3) 36.3% -3.3 78 29.8 40 33.8 99 0.7 37 0.939 66
Memphis C-USA 6-7 6.7 (0.7) 35.9% -3.4 79 28.9 47 31.5 86 -0.8 85 0.970 108
Navy Ind 8-5 5.9 (-2.1) 35.6% -3.5 80 25.3 67 30.2 81 1.3 22 0.964 97
Fresno State WAC 6-7 7.6 (1.6) 35.6% -3.5 81 29.4 42 33.4 96 0.5 46 0.968 106
Marshall C-USA 4-8 5.6 (1.6) 34.0% -4.2 82 23.2 77 27.4 73 0.0 57 0.961 88
Central Michigan MAC 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 30.6% -5.6 83 30.1 39 36.3 107 0.6 42 0.965 100
Texas A&M Big 12 4-8 2.4 (-1.6) 30.5% -5.6 84 27.4 54 33.1 94 0.2 51 0.850 8
Duke ACC 4-8 4.8 (0.8) 28.0% -6.7 85 17.8 104 24.9 59 0.4 47 0.947 74
Akron MAC 5-7 5.7 (0.7) 27.9% -6.7 86 29.0 46 34.7 103 -1.0 95 0.971 109
Hawaii WAC 7-7 7.3 (0.3) 25.8% -7.6 87 23.8 74 29.7 79 -1.7 108 0.926 53
Indiana Big Ten 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 24.3% -8.3 88 24.3 72 31.6 88 -1.0 93 0.900 37
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 24.0% -8.5 89 25.5 66 33.6 97 -0.4 70 0.945 73
Kent State MAC 4-8 5.5 (1.5) 23.9% -8.5 90 27.6 53 34.6 101 -1.5 105 0.973 114
Mississippi State SEC 4-8 4.2 (0.2) 23.2% -8.8 91 16.5 110 22.5 51 -2.9 120 0.921 50
Ohio MAC 4-8 6.1 (2.1) 22.1% -9.3 92 21.6 87 29.7 78 -1.2 101 0.966 101
Temple MAC 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 21.9% -9.4 93 19.0 98 27.9 75 -0.5 79 0.957 83
Arkansas State Sun Belt 6-6 7.1 (1.1) 21.9% -9.5 94 22.8 82 32.3 90 0.1 54 0.967 105
Louisiana Tech WAC 8-5 6.7 (-1.3) 21.4% -9.7 95 20.2 92 29.6 77 -0.3 66 0.966 102
UAB C-USA 4-8 4.3 (0.3) 20.2% -10.3 96 24.5 71 35.4 106 0.6 44 0.967 104
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 6-6 6.4 (0.4) 18.7% -11.1 97 29.3 43 39.9 115 -0.5 77 0.979 117
Toledo MAC 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 18.1% -11.4 98 22.6 83 33.1 93 -0.9 89 0.965 99
UNLV MWC 5-7 3.3 (-1.7) 16.4% -12.4 99 24.1 73 36.5 109 0.0 56 0.948 75
San Jose State WAC 6-6 4.2 (-1.8) 15.2% -13.2 100 12.9 116 25.4 63 -0.7 83 0.959 86
Buffalo MAC 8-6 5.0 (-3.0) 13.3% -14.4 101 26.4 62 39.7 114 -1.1 98 0.954 81
Wyoming MWC 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 13.0% -14.5 102 12.1 118 24.5 57 -2.2 114 0.943 72
Syracuse Big East 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 12.9% -14.6 103 19.3 95 35.4 105 1.4 20 0.925 52
Middle Tennessee Sun Belt 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 12.3% -15.0 104 17.2 107 31.6 87 -0.6 81 0.986 118
Miami-OH MAC 2-10 2.2 (0.2) 11.3% -15.8 105 16.1 111 33.8 98 1.9 12 0.972 113
Central Florida C-USA 4-8 3.1 (-0.9) 11.2% -15.8 106 7.3 120 22.3 50 -0.8 88 0.964 98
Florida International Sun Belt 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 9.5% -17.3 107 15.0 114 31.2 84 -1.1 97 0.950 77
Tulane C-USA 2-10 3.6 (1.6) 9.3% -17.4 108 19.8 93 34.7 102 -2.5 119 0.940 69
Washington State Pac-10 2-11 1.8 (-0.2) 9.2% -17.5 109 16.0 112 32.4 91 -1.1 100 0.873 19
San Diego State MWC 3-9 2.6 (-0.4) 8.7% -17.9 110 19.3 96 36.7 110 -0.5 76 0.949 76
SMU C-USA 1-11 3.2 (2.2) 8.1% -18.5 111 23.0 81 42.1 118 0.6 41 0.941 71
Utah State WAC 3-9 3.4 (0.4) 7.7% -18.9 112 17.3 106 37.2 112 1.0 27 0.937 62
Army Ind 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 6.4% -20.3 113 10.2 119 30.4 83 -0.1 61 0.987 119
Washington Pac-10 0-12 0.5 (0.5) 5.6% -21.3 114 17.4 105 36.3 108 -2.4 117 0.837 3
New Mexico State WAC 3-9 4.5 (1.5) 5.2% -21.7 115 17.1 108 36.9 111 -1.9 110 0.959 84
Eastern Michigan MAC 3-9 3.1 (0.1) 5.1% -22.0 116 21.3 88 41.2 117 -2.1 113 0.971 110
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 2-10 3.4 (1.4) 5.0% -22.1 117 12.8 117 34.2 100 -0.7 84 0.955 82
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 4-8 2.9 (-1.1) 2.5% -26.7 118 16.6 109 41.1 116 -2.2 115 0.974 116
Idaho WAC 2-10 2.4 (0.4) 1.7% -28.8 119 14.4 115 44.0 119 0.8 34 0.963 96
North Texas Sun Belt 1-11 0.5 (-0.5) 1.2% -30.9 120 18.9 100 48.9 120 -0.8 87 0.962 91