2009 COLLEGE FOOTBALL S/P+ RATINGS

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The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Florida SEC 13-1 12.6 (-0.4) 98.4% 32.8 1 39.4 2 8.0 3 1.5 18 0.830 15
Alabama SEC 14-0 12.0 (-2.0) 97.5% 30.2 2 35.0 23 6.5 1 1.7 11 0.773 1
Texas Big 12 13-1 11.1 (-1.9) 97.4% 30.0 3 37.6 10 9.2 6 1.6 17 0.840 21
Virginia Tech ACC 10-3 11.0 (1.0) 96.3% 27.8 4 36.6 12 11.1 10 2.3 3 0.842 23
TCU MWC 12-1 12.4 (0.4) 95.0% 25.6 5 36.0 15 11.4 11 1.0 29 0.916 75
Miami-FL ACC 9-4 9.7 (0.7) 94.6% 25.0 6 38.5 7 15.1 16 1.7 15 0.857 28
Texas Tech Big 12 9-4 10.6 (1.6) 94.3% 24.6 7 38.5 5 14.4 14 0.5 40 0.857 27
LSU SEC 9-4 8.6 (-0.4) 92.9% 23.0 8 30.8 41 10.3 8 2.6 2 0.801 5
Oregon Pac-10 10-3 10.3 (0.3) 92.3% 22.4 9 36.2 13 15.5 18 1.7 12 0.857 26
Oklahoma Big 12 8-5 9.1 (1.1) 92.3% 22.3 10 31.4 36 8.6 4 -0.4 73 0.810 7
Penn State Big Ten 11-2 10.5 (-0.5) 91.8% 21.9 11 34.2 25 10.9 9 -1.4 104 0.898 66
Ohio State Big Ten 11-2 9.6 (-1.4) 90.8% 21.0 12 30.0 48 9.3 7 0.3 48 0.868 33
Nebraska Big 12 10-4 9.3 (-0.7) 89.6% 19.9 13 25.9 66 7.8 2 1.9 8 0.836 20
Boise State WAC 14-0 12.4 (-1.6) 89.5% 19.9 14 36.9 11 17.7 27 0.6 38 0.927 84
Georgia SEC 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 88.6% 19.1 15 33.6 27 16.8 23 2.3 4 0.813 8
Cincinnati Big East 12-1 11.2 (-0.8) 87.3% 18.2 16 40.8 1 23.4 45 0.9 32 0.880 48
Pittsburgh Big East 10-3 9.5 (-0.5) 86.9% 17.9 17 36.1 14 19.8 34 1.6 16 0.918 78
Auburn SEC 8-5 7.2 (-0.8) 86.1% 17.4 18 35.6 16 19.6 33 1.4 21 0.829 14
Iowa Big Ten 11-2 9.9 (-1.1) 86.0% 17.3 19 25.1 72 8.9 5 1.1 26 0.885 53
Wisconsin Big Ten 9-3 9.4 (0.4) 85.4% 16.9 20 35.5 18 19.4 32 0.9 31 0.886 54
Ole Miss SEC 9-4 9.4 (0.4) 85.1% 16.7 21 31.8 35 15.6 19 0.4 45 0.841 22
USC Pac-10 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 84.9% 16.6 22 35.2 22 17.4 26 -1.2 98 0.868 35
Clemson ACC 9-5 9.3 (0.3) 84.7% 16.4 23 31.1 39 14.4 13 -0.2 65 0.869 37
Tennessee SEC 7-6 8.2 (1.2) 84.2% 16.2 24 32.9 29 15.5 17 -1.3 100 0.793 2
Arkansas SEC 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 84.0% 16.0 25 38.0 8 21.1 38 -0.9 91 0.795 4
Utah MWC 10-3 9.5 (-0.5) 82.4% 15.1 26 30.4 44 17.0 24 1.7 13 0.909 71
Oklahoma State Big 12 9-4 7.6 (-1.4) 80.5% 14.0 27 28.7 54 16.6 22 1.9 7 0.829 12
South Carolina SEC 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 80.2% 13.9 28 27.0 62 13.2 12 0.1 55 0.807 6
West Virginia Big East 9-4 8.6 (-0.4) 80.1% 13.8 29 31.1 38 19.0 28 1.7 14 0.904 68
BYU MWC 11-2 10.0 (-1.0) 77.9% 12.7 30 34.0 26 20.7 37 -0.5 78 0.893 62
Boston College ACC 8-5 7.0 (-1.0) 77.8% 12.7 31 27.1 60 15.9 21 1.5 20 0.879 46
Oregon State Pac-10 8-5 8.2 (0.2) 77.8% 12.6 32 35.3 21 24.7 52 2.1 6 0.878 43
Missouri Big 12 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 75.9% 11.8 33 34.2 24 23.8 47 1.3 23 0.889 59
Notre Dame Ind 6-6 7.4 (1.4) 74.2% 11.0 34 39.2 3 28.7 77 0.4 43 0.890 60
Stanford Pac-10 8-5 7.8 (-0.2) 73.7% 10.7 35 39.2 4 30.6 84 2.2 5 0.867 32
Georgia Tech ACC 11-3 7.9 (-3.1) 71.5% 9.7 36 35.4 19 25.8 60 0.1 57 0.834 18
Florida State ACC 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 69.4% 8.8 37 38.5 6 30.6 85 1.0 30 0.832 16
Michigan State Big Ten 6-7 7.1 (1.1) 69.1% 8.7 38 32.1 34 24.5 51 1.2 25 0.868 34
North Carolina ACC 8-5 7.2 (-0.8) 68.7% 8.5 39 22.5 86 14.5 15 0.6 39 0.863 31
Michigan Big Ten 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 67.8% 8.2 40 32.6 32 25.6 57 1.3 24 0.873 39
Arizona State Pac-10 4-8 7.5 (3.5) 67.8% 8.2 41 25.2 71 15.6 20 -1.4 105 0.876 42
Kansas Big 12 5-7 6.4 (1.4) 67.3% 8.0 42 32.7 30 23.8 46 -1.0 92 0.835 19
Texas A&M Big 12 6-7 6.8 (0.8) 66.4% 7.6 43 35.4 20 26.9 65 -0.9 90 0.832 17
Arizona Pac-10 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 65.0% 7.1 44 28.1 55 20.4 36 -0.6 81 0.860 29
California Pac-10 8-5 7.0 (-1.0) 63.7% 6.5 45 30.2 47 22.5 42 -1.2 99 0.885 52
Connecticut Big East 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 60.9% 5.4 46 30.3 46 24.8 53 -0.1 62 0.894 65
Purdue Big Ten 5-7 6.4 (1.4) 59.9% 5.1 47 29.3 51 23.8 48 -0.4 74 0.881 50
Kansas State Big 12 6-6 6.0 (0.0) 59.6% 5.0 48 25.1 73 20.3 35 0.2 51 0.869 36
Air Force MWC 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 59.0% 4.7 49 21.3 95 17.4 25 0.8 33 0.923 81
Mississippi State SEC 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 59.0% 4.7 50 27.8 56 24.1 49 1.1 28 0.793 3
UCLA Pac-10 7-6 5.5 (-1.5) 58.7% 4.6 51 24.3 77 21.6 39 1.8 9 0.879 45
Fresno State WAC 8-5 6.8 (-1.2) 57.4% 4.1 52 33.5 28 32.1 91 2.8 1 0.929 86
Houston C-USA 10-4 8.8 (-1.2) 57.1% 4.0 53 37.8 9 33.8 100 0.0 58 0.932 91
Central Michigan MAC 12-2 10.5 (-1.5) 55.7% 3.5 54 29.1 52 25.7 58 0.1 56 0.961 110
Wake Forest ACC 4-7 6.4 (2.4) 55.2% 3.3 55 32.6 31 28.3 74 -1.0 93 0.888 57
Rutgers Big East 9-4 8.3 (-0.7) 54.8% 3.1 56 22.1 90 19.0 29 0.1 52 0.927 83
South Florida Big East 7-5 7.6 (0.6) 53.8% 2.8 57 26.9 63 22.5 41 -1.7 108 0.888 58
Southern Miss C-USA 7-6 8.2 (1.2) 52.9% 2.4 58 30.4 45 27.6 69 -0.4 71 0.967 117
Kentucky SEC 7-6 5.8 (-1.2) 51.9% 2.1 59 23.8 78 23.1 44 1.3 22 0.816 9
Iowa State Big 12 7-6 5.3 (-1.7) 49.0% 1.0 60 26.5 64 27.0 67 1.5 19 0.899 67
Virginia ACC 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 48.2% 0.7 61 19.2 102 19.2 30 0.8 35 0.829 13
NC State ACC 4-7 4.8 (0.8) 47.9% 0.6 62 30.7 42 29.8 80 -0.2 64 0.862 30
Nevada WAC 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 47.7% 0.5 63 35.6 17 34.3 102 -0.7 85 0.940 97
Troy Sun Belt 9-4 9.5 (0.5) 47.6% 0.5 64 31.3 37 31.6 87 0.8 34 0.925 82
Minnesota Big Ten 6-7 5.7 (-0.3) 47.1% 0.3 65 22.1 89 22.5 43 0.7 36 0.874 40
Colorado Big 12 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 46.8% 0.2 66 20.6 98 19.3 31 -1.1 94 0.855 25
Washington Pac-10 5-7 3.8 (-1.2) 45.8% -0.2 67 29.9 49 30.5 83 0.4 42 0.851 24
Tulsa C-USA 5-7 6.8 (1.8) 43.3% -1.1 68 27.2 59 30.1 81 1.8 10 0.929 87
Middle Tennessee Sun Belt 10-3 8.9 (-1.1) 40.6% -2.1 69 23.5 82 25.2 54 -0.4 75 0.964 115
East Carolina C-USA 9-5 7.4 (-1.6) 40.3% -2.3 70 24.5 74 26.7 64 -0.1 61 0.911 73
Syracuse Big East 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 38.9% -2.8 71 23.3 83 26.4 63 0.4 46 0.888 56
Navy Ind 10-4 7.5 (-2.5) 38.6% -2.9 72 24.4 75 28.0 72 0.6 37 0.921 80
Bowling Green MAC 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 37.6% -3.3 73 27.6 58 29.0 79 -1.9 113 0.950 103
Baylor Big 12 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 36.7% -3.6 74 22.7 85 25.6 56 -0.7 84 0.816 10
Louisiana Tech WAC 4-8 6.1 (2.1) 36.2% -3.8 75 23.6 81 26.9 66 -0.5 80 0.910 72
Northwestern Big Ten 8-5 5.7 (-2.3) 35.6% -4.0 76 24.4 76 27.4 68 -1.1 95 0.894 63
Maryland ACC 2-10 3.4 (1.4) 35.6% -4.1 77 21.4 94 25.5 55 0.0 59 0.887 55
Colorado State MWC 3-9 5.6 (2.6) 34.5% -4.5 78 29.7 50 32.8 94 -1.4 102 0.917 76
Northern Illinois MAC 7-6 6.8 (-0.2) 34.3% -4.6 79 23.8 79 28.5 76 0.1 54 0.961 109
Temple MAC 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 33.4% -4.9 80 21.8 93 26.2 61 -0.5 76 0.961 111
Louisville Big East 4-8 3.7 (-0.3) 32.3% -5.4 81 23.7 80 28.0 71 -1.1 96 0.894 64
Central Florida C-USA 8-5 7.0 (-1.0) 32.2% -5.4 82 21.1 96 25.7 59 -0.8 89 0.907 70
Vanderbilt SEC 2-10 3.0 (1.0) 32.1% -5.5 83 16.3 109 22.0 40 0.2 50 0.823 11
UTEP C-USA 4-8 6.2 (2.2) 31.6% -5.7 84 31.0 40 36.1 106 -0.6 82 0.932 89
Illinois Big Ten 3-9 4.3 (1.3) 31.5% -5.7 85 27.1 61 32.0 90 -0.8 87 0.872 38
Duke ACC 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 30.6% -6.1 86 22.5 87 28.4 75 -0.2 63 0.882 51
Marshall C-USA 7-6 5.5 (-1.5) 30.6% -6.1 87 21.1 97 28.3 73 1.1 27 0.932 90
SMU C-USA 8-5 7.8 (-0.2) 30.5% -6.1 88 26.0 65 32.6 93 0.4 41 0.946 100
Indiana Big Ten 4-8 5.0 (1.0) 29.2% -6.7 89 25.4 70 30.4 82 -1.7 110 0.881 49
UAB C-USA 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 28.8% -6.8 90 30.4 43 36.9 109 -0.4 72 0.952 105
Toledo MAC 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 27.6% -7.4 91 27.8 57 34.8 103 -0.3 67 0.950 102
Ohio MAC 9-5 6.1 (-2.9) 25.0% -8.6 92 15.6 111 24.3 50 0.1 53 0.964 114
Hawaii WAC 5-7 7.0 (2.0) 24.5% -8.8 93 29.0 53 35.9 104 -1.8 112 0.943 98
Idaho WAC 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 20.9% -10.6 94 32.3 33 42.1 116 -0.7 86 0.954 107
San Diego State MWC 4-8 5.4 (1.4) 20.1% -11.0 95 19.5 101 28.7 78 -1.8 111 0.917 77
UNLV MWC 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 19.1% -11.5 96 25.4 69 36.1 105 -0.8 88 0.905 69
Buffalo MAC 5-7 5.2 (0.2) 18.8% -11.6 97 21.8 91 31.8 88 -1.6 107 0.962 112
Kent State MAC 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 18.4% -11.9 98 16.6 107 26.4 62 -2.0 116 0.972 119
Western Michigan MAC 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 18.1% -12.0 99 21.8 92 33.6 98 -0.2 66 0.968 118
Utah State WAC 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 17.0% -12.7 100 25.7 68 37.1 110 -1.3 101 0.921 79
Wyoming MWC 7-6 3.6 (-3.4) 14.3% -14.4 101 16.9 106 30.9 86 -0.3 69 0.880 47
Memphis C-USA 2-10 3.3 (1.3) 14.2% -14.4 102 22.8 84 36.8 108 -0.3 70 0.935 94
North Texas Sun Belt 2-10 6.3 (4.3) 13.1% -15.1 103 22.3 88 36.7 107 -0.7 83 0.947 101
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 6-6 5.8 (-0.2) 12.5% -15.6 104 19.6 99 33.3 97 -1.9 114 0.935 93
Ball State MAC 2-10 3.2 (1.2) 10.2% -17.3 105 15.0 113 32.3 92 0.0 60 0.963 113
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 10.2% -17.3 106 25.8 67 42.6 118 -0.5 77 0.950 104
Akron MAC 3-9 4.6 (1.6) 9.6% -17.8 107 16.3 110 31.9 89 -2.2 118 0.953 106
Arkansas State Sun Belt 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 9.2% -18.2 108 14.5 114 33.1 96 0.4 47 0.945 99
Miami-OH MAC 1-11 2.8 (1.8) 8.4% -18.9 109 17.7 103 33.9 101 -2.7 120 0.935 95
New Mexico MWC 1-11 1.9 (0.9) 8.2% -19.1 110 16.4 108 33.8 99 -1.7 109 0.879 44
Army Ind 4-8 3.6 (-0.4) 5.9% -21.7 111 6.5 119 27.7 70 -0.5 79 0.975 120
Tulane C-USA 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 5.5% -22.2 112 19.6 100 39.4 115 -2.4 119 0.934 92
Washington State Pac-10 1-11 0.0 (-1.0) 5.4% -22.2 113 17.6 104 38.5 113 -1.4 103 0.876 41
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 6-6 3.8 (-2.2) 4.4% -23.8 114 13.5 116 37.5 111 0.2 49 0.931 88
San Jose State WAC 2-10 1.5 (-0.5) 3.5% -25.2 115 13.5 115 37.7 112 -1.1 97 0.912 74
Rice C-USA 2-10 1.0 (-1.0) 3.1% -26.0 116 15.0 112 39.2 114 -1.9 115 0.928 85
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 0-11 1.8 (1.8) 2.4% -27.8 117 17.1 105 45.3 120 0.4 44 0.965 116
New Mexico State WAC 4-9 1.9 (-2.1) 2.1% -28.5 118 6.2 120 33.0 95 -1.6 106 0.937 96
Florida International Sun Belt 3-9 2.2 (-0.8) 1.6% -30.3 119 12.6 117 42.6 119 -0.3 68 0.893 61
Eastern Michigan MAC 1-11 1.0 (0.0) 1.0% -32.7 120 11.7 118 42.3 117 -2.1 117 0.957 108