2010 COLLEGE FOOTBALL S/P+ RATINGS

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The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Alabama SEC 10-3 11.4 (1.4) 96.9% 30.1 1 43.9 4 14.2 7 0.4 53 0.817 14
Ohio State Big Ten 12-1 11.5 (-0.5) 96.8% 30.0 2 40.5 10 11.4 2 1.0 29 0.858 41
Oregon Pac-10 12-1 10.8 (-1.2) 96.0% 28.2 3 43.5 5 16.0 14 0.8 39 0.840 25
Stanford Pac-10 12-1 11.4 (-0.6) 95.9% 28.1 4 44.4 3 17.3 17 1.0 25 0.839 24
Arkansas SEC 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 95.3% 27.1 5 44.8 2 19.3 27 1.7 12 0.775 4
Auburn SEC 14-0 11.1 (-2.9) 94.9% 26.5 6 49.4 1 22.7 44 -0.1 69 0.769 2
Boise State WAC 12-1 12.6 (0.6) 94.9% 26.4 7 42.1 7 14.1 6 -1.6 103 0.919 81
Oklahoma State Big 12 11-2 11.6 (0.6) 94.5% 25.9 8 42.9 6 19.5 29 2.5 1 0.874 54
TCU MWC 13-0 12.2 (-0.8) 94.0% 25.2 9 39.4 14 15.8 12 1.6 15 0.921 84
Oklahoma Big 12 12-2 9.7 (-2.3) 92.6% 23.5 10 37.8 17 15.9 13 1.6 13 0.851 36
Wisconsin Big Ten 11-2 10.6 (-0.4) 92.2% 23.1 11 42.1 8 20.7 34 1.6 14 0.860 46
Georgia SEC 6-7 8.6 (2.6) 91.4% 22.2 12 41.0 9 20.9 36 2.2 4 0.847 30
Miami-FL ACC 7-6 9.0 (2.0) 90.7% 21.6 13 34.9 23 14.0 5 0.6 44 0.834 21
Virginia Tech ACC 11-3 10.8 (-0.2) 90.3% 21.2 14 39.6 12 20.0 31 1.6 16 0.851 35
LSU SEC 11-2 8.3 (-2.7) 89.4% 20.4 15 33.1 34 14.8 9 2.1 5 0.806 9
South Carolina SEC 9-5 10.8 (1.8) 89.2% 20.3 16 38.6 16 19.0 25 0.7 43 0.769 3
Florida State ACC 10-4 9.4 (-0.6) 88.5% 19.7 17 34.6 26 16.9 16 1.9 6 0.833 19
Missouri Big 12 10-3 10.0 (0.0) 88.0% 19.3 18 35.2 21 17.6 19 1.7 10 0.871 51
Nebraska Big 12 10-4 9.6 (-0.4) 87.4% 18.8 19 30.8 42 14.3 8 2.3 3 0.872 52
Iowa Big Ten 8-5 8.4 (0.4) 84.8% 17.0 20 35.9 19 19.8 30 0.9 34 0.852 37
Notre Dame Ind 8-5 8.9 (0.9) 84.1% 16.5 21 32.2 35 16.7 15 1.0 26 0.852 38
West Virginia Big East 9-4 10.5 (1.5) 83.5% 16.2 22 26.9 68 9.6 1 -1.1 98 0.910 76
USC Pac-10 8-5 6.6 (-1.4) 81.9% 15.2 23 39.0 15 23.0 45 -0.8 88 0.827 17
Arizona Pac-10 7-6 8.3 (1.3) 81.3% 14.8 24 34.5 29 19.4 28 -0.3 74 0.808 11
Arizona State Pac-10 6-6 7.3 (1.3) 81.0% 14.6 25 35.7 20 21.0 37 0.0 66 0.820 16
Florida SEC 8-5 7.0 (-1.0) 79.8% 14.0 26 29.3 57 15.6 11 0.2 60 0.819 15
Michigan State Big Ten 11-2 9.4 (-1.6) 79.5% 13.8 27 34.7 25 23.3 46 2.4 2 0.859 42
Texas A&M Big 12 9-4 8.5 (-0.5) 79.5% 13.8 28 32.0 36 17.9 20 -0.2 73 0.804 8
Hawaii WAC 10-4 10.7 (0.7) 77.6% 12.8 29 39.5 13 26.4 58 -0.2 72 0.927 88
Utah MWC 10-3 8.3 (-1.7) 76.5% 12.2 30 31.8 38 20.1 32 0.6 46 0.878 60
Maryland ACC 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 75.9% 11.9 31 29.9 52 18.3 23 0.3 59 0.894 67
Pittsburgh Big East 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 74.6% 11.3 32 29.7 55 18.7 24 0.4 52 0.886 63
Louisville Big East 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 73.8% 10.9 33 28.6 60 19.1 26 1.4 19 0.930 89
Nevada WAC 13-1 11.2 (-1.8) 73.7% 10.8 34 37.6 18 26.5 59 -0.3 76 0.920 83
Mississippi State SEC 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 73.1% 10.6 35 32.0 37 20.9 35 -0.5 78 0.798 7
Texas Big 12 5-7 6.3 (1.3) 73.1% 10.6 36 24.8 73 15.3 10 1.1 24 0.856 40
Clemson ACC 5-7 6.9 (1.9) 72.2% 10.1 37 24.0 76 13.3 3 -0.5 82 0.842 28
California Pac-10 5-7 5.8 (0.8) 72.0% 10.0 38 28.0 64 17.4 18 -0.6 84 0.829 18
NC State ACC 9-4 6.8 (-2.2) 70.4% 9.3 39 29.7 54 20.5 33 0.1 61 0.873 53
San Diego State MWC 9-4 9.9 (0.9) 69.4% 8.9 40 34.3 31 25.5 53 0.0 64 0.917 79
Kansas State Big 12 7-6 6.3 (-0.7) 68.9% 8.6 41 34.4 30 27.4 64 1.7 11 0.880 61
Illinois Big Ten 7-6 7.8 (0.8) 68.7% 8.6 42 30.2 49 22.4 41 0.8 38 0.877 58
Tennessee SEC 6-7 5.8 (-0.2) 66.8% 7.7 43 30.5 44 23.6 48 0.8 36 0.807 10
North Carolina ACC 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 66.7% 7.7 44 30.9 41 22.2 38 -1.0 94 0.859 43
Michigan Big Ten 7-6 7.1 (0.1) 66.6% 7.7 45 40.2 11 30.6 77 -2.0 109 0.843 29
Northern Illinois MAC 11-3 11.9 (0.9) 66.4% 7.6 46 34.5 28 25.9 55 -1.1 96 0.976 119
Texas Tech Big 12 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 65.9% 7.4 47 34.2 32 26.9 62 0.1 62 0.869 49
Boston College ACC 7-6 6.8 (-0.2) 65.4% 7.1 48 19.9 96 13.5 4 0.7 41 0.874 55
Penn State Big Ten 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 64.0% 6.6 49 29.2 58 23.5 47 0.9 31 0.842 27
Kentucky SEC 6-7 6.3 (0.3) 62.6% 6.0 50 34.6 27 28.9 71 0.3 58 0.849 32
Southern Miss C-USA 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 61.7% 5.6 51 30.2 48 26.5 60 1.8 8 0.946 98
Syracuse Big East 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 60.9% 5.3 52 22.2 82 18.1 21 1.2 23 0.923 86
Central Florida C-USA 11-3 11.0 (0.0) 60.5% 5.1 53 28.2 63 22.4 40 -0.7 86 0.942 95
Oregon State Pac-10 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 59.2% 4.6 54 30.6 43 25.5 54 -0.5 79 0.755 1
Baylor Big 12 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 59.2% 4.6 55 34.9 24 29.5 74 -0.9 89 0.847 31
Air Force MWC 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 57.5% 3.9 56 30.5 45 24.7 50 -1.9 105 0.901 70
UCLA Pac-10 4-8 4.2 (0.2) 57.4% 3.9 57 26.5 69 24.1 49 1.5 17 0.815 12
Fresno State WAC 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 57.0% 3.7 58 29.9 51 27.5 65 1.3 21 0.909 75
BYU MWC 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 56.0% 3.3 59 24.6 74 22.5 43 1.2 22 0.897 68
Washington Pac-10 7-6 6.0 (-1.0) 55.6% 3.2 60 29.2 59 26.0 56 0.0 63 0.796 5
Georgia Tech ACC 6-7 6.5 (0.5) 54.9% 2.9 61 30.4 47 27.9 70 0.3 55 0.880 62
Ole Miss SEC 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 54.7% 2.8 62 31.5 39 29.5 75 0.8 37 0.816 13
Cincinnati Big East 4-8 5.4 (1.4) 54.1% 2.5 63 28.4 62 27.7 68 1.9 7 0.889 64
South Florida Big East 8-5 6.1 (-1.9) 48.6% 0.4 64 19.1 98 18.1 22 -0.5 80 0.891 65
Tulsa C-USA 9-3 8.9 (-0.1) 48.6% 0.4 65 35.2 22 35.1 100 0.3 54 0.919 82
Northwestern Big Ten 7-6 6.0 (-1.0) 44.8% -1.1 66 30.9 40 32.8 84 0.7 40 0.905 72
Colorado Big 12 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 42.9% -1.9 67 27.3 66 27.7 66 -1.4 102 0.835 22
Virginia ACC 4-8 4.9 (0.9) 42.1% -2.1 68 29.8 53 31.9 81 0.0 65 0.862 47
SMU C-USA 7-7 8.9 (1.9) 39.6% -3.2 69 29.9 50 30.6 78 -2.5 115 0.942 96
Connecticut Big East 8-5 4.5 (-3.5) 38.5% -3.6 70 17.9 104 22.4 42 0.9 32 0.901 69
Navy Ind 9-4 7.6 (-1.4) 37.1% -4.2 71 29.5 56 33.5 91 -0.2 70 0.944 97
Troy Sun Belt 8-5 7.8 (-0.2) 36.6% -4.4 72 27.8 65 32.7 83 0.5 48 0.937 92
Western Michigan MAC 6-6 7.1 (1.1) 36.3% -4.5 73 25.1 71 30.2 76 0.6 45 0.949 102
Houston C-USA 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 35.8% -4.7 74 30.5 46 35.7 103 0.5 49 0.949 103
Temple MAC 8-4 6.7 (-1.3) 34.8% -5.2 75 20.9 88 25.4 52 -0.6 85 0.969 115
East Carolina C-USA 6-7 5.7 (-0.3) 34.5% -5.3 76 33.2 33 39.7 115 1.3 20 0.919 80
Indiana Big Ten 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 34.4% -5.3 77 28.4 61 33.5 92 -0.2 71 0.870 50
Toledo MAC 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 33.9% -5.5 78 23.9 77 27.1 63 -2.3 114 0.932 90
Iowa State Big 12 5-7 4.3 (-0.7) 33.5% -5.7 79 20.2 94 25.0 51 -0.9 92 0.841 26
Purdue Big Ten 4-8 3.5 (-0.5) 31.5% -6.5 80 18.8 100 26.3 57 0.9 30 0.860 45
Ohio MAC 7-5 8.0 (1.0) 31.4% -6.6 81 21.0 87 29.0 72 1.4 18 0.950 104
Miami-OH MAC 10-4 8.2 (-1.8) 31.1% -6.7 82 21.9 83 26.6 61 -2.1 112 0.946 99
Washington State Pac-10 2-10 1.2 (-0.8) 29.7% -7.4 83 27.0 67 35.3 102 1.0 27 0.796 6
Louisiana Tech WAC 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 29.6% -7.4 84 23.9 78 33.0 86 1.7 9 0.901 71
Kent State MAC 5-7 6.4 (1.4) 29.3% -7.6 85 15.3 111 22.2 39 -0.6 83 0.972 117
Duke ACC 2-9 4.2 (2.2) 25.0% -9.6 86 23.8 79 34.3 97 1.0 28 0.855 39
UAB C-USA 4-8 6.0 (2.0) 24.7% -9.7 87 26.0 70 33.2 88 -2.5 116 0.954 107
Vanderbilt SEC 2-10 3.2 (1.2) 24.2% -10.0 88 20.5 93 29.4 73 -1.1 97 0.833 20
Minnesota Big Ten 3-9 2.2 (-0.8) 23.3% -10.4 89 25.1 72 33.6 93 -2.0 107 0.836 23
UTEP C-USA 5-7 6.2 (1.2) 21.9% -11.2 90 23.3 81 33.9 96 -0.5 81 0.948 100
Rutgers Big East 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 20.8% -11.7 91 17.0 107 27.7 67 -1.1 95 0.924 87
Idaho WAC 6-7 6.1 (0.1) 20.5% -11.9 92 21.2 86 33.5 90 0.4 51 0.908 73
Wake Forest ACC 2-9 3.4 (1.4) 20.1% -12.1 93 20.7 91 32.4 82 -0.4 77 0.851 34
Florida International Sun Belt 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 19.8% -12.3 94 20.8 89 33.5 89 0.3 56 0.954 106
Middle Tennessee Sun Belt 6-7 6.5 (0.5) 19.4% -12.5 95 19.4 97 32.8 85 0.9 33 0.988 120
Wyoming MWC 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 18.5% -13.0 96 20.0 95 33.9 95 0.8 35 0.876 56
Marshall C-USA 5-7 4.3 (-0.7) 16.8% -14.1 97 15.7 109 27.8 69 -2.0 111 0.913 77
Army Ind 7-6 6.1 (-0.9) 16.0% -14.6 98 19.0 99 33.9 94 0.3 57 0.951 105
Central Michigan MAC 3-9 4.8 (1.8) 15.8% -14.7 99 21.9 84 34.4 99 -2.2 113 0.948 101
North Texas Sun Belt 3-9 5.4 (2.4) 14.5% -15.6 100 20.7 92 36.2 104 0.0 67 0.973 118
Ball State MAC 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 14.4% -15.6 101 17.5 105 33.0 87 -0.1 68 0.962 111
Arkansas State Sun Belt 4-8 5.5 (1.5) 14.0% -15.9 102 24.5 75 39.1 114 -1.3 100 0.941 94
Rice C-USA 4-8 2.5 (-1.5) 13.0% -16.6 103 23.6 80 40.6 117 0.4 50 0.956 108
Colorado State MWC 3-9 2.6 (-0.4) 12.7% -16.8 104 20.7 90 36.7 107 -0.9 90 0.909 74
Kansas Big 12 3-9 2.3 (-0.7) 12.5% -17.0 105 15.8 108 31.9 80 -1.0 93 0.864 48
San Jose State WAC 1-12 4.4 (3.4) 12.4% -17.1 106 21.3 85 37.0 108 -1.4 101 0.849 33
Utah State WAC 4-8 3.2 (-0.8) 9.9% -19.2 107 17.1 106 34.4 98 -1.8 104 0.878 59
Tulane C-USA 4-8 3.1 (-0.9) 7.8% -21.1 108 18.5 101 37.7 111 -2.0 108 0.967 113
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 6.4% -22.8 109 14.5 112 36.6 106 -0.7 87 0.961 110
Bowling Green MAC 2-10 2.0 (0.0) 5.8% -23.5 110 14.2 113 35.1 101 -2.6 117 0.972 116
UNLV MWC 2-11 2.0 (0.0) 5.5% -24.0 111 18.1 103 40.8 118 -1.3 99 0.860 44
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 5.4% -24.1 112 13.2 115 36.4 105 -0.9 91 0.893 66
New Mexico MWC 1-11 1.1 (0.1) 5.0% -24.8 113 14.1 114 38.6 112 -0.3 75 0.876 57
Memphis C-USA 1-11 0.9 (-0.1) 4.8% -25.0 114 13.1 116 38.8 113 0.7 42 0.939 93
Buffalo MAC 2-10 3.0 (1.0) 3.6% -27.0 115 6.5 120 31.5 79 -2.0 110 0.968 114
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 2-10 2.9 (0.9) 3.4% -27.6 116 12.5 117 37.2 109 -2.9 120 0.957 109
Akron MAC 1-10 2.5 (1.5) 3.1% -28.2 117 11.0 118 37.2 110 -2.0 106 0.964 112
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 3-9 2.2 (-0.8) 3.1% -28.2 118 15.5 110 41.0 119 -2.8 119 0.922 85
Eastern Michigan MAC 2-10 2.7 (0.7) 2.7% -29.2 119 18.2 102 44.8 120 -2.7 118 0.933 91
New Mexico State WAC 2-10 0.6 (-1.4) 2.6% -29.4 120 10.1 119 40.1 116 0.5 47 0.914 78