2011 COLLEGE FOOTBALL S/P+ RATINGS

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The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Alabama SEC 12-1 12.3 (0.3) 98.3% 32.5 1 39.3 13 6.4 1 -0.5 77 0.836 16
LSU SEC 13-1 11.4 (-1.6) 98.1% 31.9 2 37.5 18 7.7 2 2.1 3 0.792 1
Oklahoma Big 12 10-3 10.8 (0.8) 97.5% 30.1 3 42.7 7 14.6 7 1.9 10 0.835 14
Oklahoma State Big 12 12-1 11.7 (-0.3) 97.2% 29.4 4 49.2 1 21.4 38 1.5 17 0.847 21
Oregon Pac-12 12-2 12.7 (0.7) 96.1% 27.2 5 46.3 3 19.9 29 0.8 35 0.848 22
Wisconsin Big Ten 11-3 11.2 (0.2) 95.4% 26.1 6 45.9 4 21.2 36 1.5 19 0.876 40
USC Pac-12 10-2 9.4 (-0.6) 94.4% 24.7 7 43.5 6 21.0 33 2.2 2 0.874 38
Boise State MWC 12-1 12.0 (0.0) 93.0% 23.0 8 40.1 10 17.5 15 0.4 48 0.928 76
Georgia SEC 10-4 10.2 (0.2) 92.9% 22.9 9 32.7 34 10.3 3 0.5 43 0.850 24
Florida State ACC 9-4 9.8 (0.8) 92.9% 22.8 10 32.2 39 12.1 4 2.8 1 0.893 49
Texas A&M Big 12 7-6 9.6 (2.6) 92.7% 22.7 11 41.8 8 20.5 31 1.4 22 0.834 13
Arkansas SEC 11-2 9.1 (-1.9) 91.6% 21.6 12 39.5 11 19.9 30 2.0 7 0.832 12
Michigan State Big Ten 11-3 10.5 (-0.5) 90.1% 20.2 13 33.5 26 14.7 9 1.4 20 0.841 19
Stanford Pac-12 11-2 10.5 (-0.5) 89.9% 20.0 14 44.6 5 24.5 50 -0.1 61 0.854 29
Michigan Big Ten 11-2 9.1 (-1.9) 89.9% 20.0 15 39.3 12 18.8 21 -0.5 80 0.885 45
Texas Big 12 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 88.1% 18.6 16 31.1 43 13.0 5 0.5 44 0.835 15
South Carolina SEC 11-2 10.2 (-0.8) 88.0% 18.6 17 33.3 29 14.6 8 -0.2 63 0.879 41
Notre Dame Ind 8-5 9.0 (1.0) 86.0% 17.2 18 34.6 25 17.0 11 -0.4 76 0.853 26
West Virginia Big East 10-3 10.0 (0.0) 85.3% 16.8 19 38.7 14 21.0 34 -0.9 93 0.904 55
Miami-FL ACC 6-6 8.0 (2.0) 84.8% 16.4 20 35.9 22 21.2 37 1.7 15 0.902 54
TCU MWC 11-2 10.7 (-0.3) 83.6% 15.7 21 37.7 16 23.3 47 1.3 24 0.943 92
Virginia Tech ACC 11-3 10.1 (-0.9) 83.1% 15.4 22 33.5 27 17.3 14 -0.8 88 0.926 74
Missouri Big 12 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 82.5% 15.0 23 37.7 17 22.0 41 -0.6 84 0.836 17
Florida SEC 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 81.9% 14.7 24 28.6 57 15.9 10 2.0 6 0.808 4
Nebraska Big Ten 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 81.6% 14.5 25 32.4 37 19.4 25 1.5 16 0.859 32
Houston C-USA 13-1 11.7 (-1.3) 81.0% 14.2 26 40.3 9 26.5 59 0.5 46 0.959 106
Ohio State Big Ten 6-7 6.3 (0.3) 79.2% 13.2 27 28.5 58 17.0 12 1.8 13 0.851 25
Iowa Big Ten 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 78.4% 12.8 28 32.4 36 19.7 26 0.1 56 0.875 39
Cincinnati Big East 10-3 9.2 (-0.8) 78.3% 12.8 29 30.1 49 17.8 17 0.5 45 0.934 82
Southern Miss C-USA 12-2 11.0 (-1.0) 77.1% 12.2 30 30.8 45 19.7 27 1.1 28 0.962 108
California Pac-12 6-6 7.3 (1.3) 77.1% 12.2 31 32.2 38 21.1 35 1.1 29 0.865 36
Penn State Big Ten 9-4 7.7 (-1.3) 75.6% 11.5 32 25.2 77 13.3 6 -0.4 73 0.853 28
Baylor Big 12 10-3 9.1 (-0.9) 74.3% 10.9 33 47.0 2 35.5 100 -0.6 83 0.828 9
Arizona State Pac-12 6-7 7.3 (1.3) 71.9% 9.9 34 36.6 19 27.9 64 1.2 26 0.860 34
South Florida Big East 5-7 7.4 (2.4) 71.6% 9.7 35 29.8 52 19.8 28 -0.3 68 0.907 59
Auburn SEC 8-5 6.9 (-1.1) 70.0% 9.0 36 31.2 42 24.0 48 1.9 11 0.809 5
Vanderbilt SEC 5-7 7.6 (2.6) 67.9% 8.1 37 26.8 64 17.8 16 -0.8 89 0.848 23
Mississippi State SEC 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 67.4% 8.0 38 26.0 71 18.2 18 0.1 55 0.830 11
Clemson ACC 10-4 8.5 (-1.5) 67.0% 7.8 39 35.4 24 28.9 69 1.2 25 0.888 47
Kansas State Big 12 10-3 5.4 (-4.6) 66.6% 7.6 40 32.1 40 24.6 51 0.2 52 0.805 3
Louisville Big East 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 65.4% 7.2 41 25.5 75 18.8 22 0.4 49 0.935 85
Tennessee SEC 5-7 5.7 (0.7) 64.8% 6.9 42 27.0 61 18.8 20 -1.3 104 0.795 2
BYU Ind 10-3 8.6 (-1.4) 64.6% 6.9 43 26.5 67 19.2 23 -0.4 72 0.940 88
Illinois Big Ten 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 64.5% 6.8 44 23.6 85 17.1 13 0.3 51 0.895 51
North Carolina ACC 7-6 8.5 (1.5) 63.6% 6.4 45 32.9 31 25.2 55 -1.2 102 0.918 67
Utah Pac-12 8-5 7.0 (-1.0) 63.5% 6.4 46 22.8 92 18.3 19 2.0 9 0.915 65
Toledo MAC 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 63.0% 6.2 47 36.0 21 30.0 74 0.2 54 0.939 87
Pittsburgh Big East 6-7 5.9 (-0.1) 61.3% 5.6 48 25.6 74 20.9 32 0.8 34 0.907 60
Central Florida C-USA 5-7 7.7 (2.7) 60.1% 5.1 49 27.0 60 22.7 43 0.9 33 0.964 110
Georgia Tech ACC 8-5 7.3 (-0.7) 60.1% 5.1 50 32.6 35 26.3 58 -1.2 100 0.913 62
Texas Tech Big 12 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 59.4% 4.8 51 38.6 15 34.5 94 0.7 38 0.828 10
Temple MAC 9-4 8.7 (-0.3) 58.9% 4.6 52 26.4 70 22.5 42 0.7 36 0.972 116
Washington Pac-12 7-6 6.2 (-0.8) 57.0% 3.9 53 36.4 20 34.4 93 2.0 8 0.865 35
Virginia ACC 8-5 6.7 (-1.3) 56.3% 3.7 54 27.5 59 23.0 45 -0.9 90 0.906 58
UCLA Pac-12 6-8 6.3 (0.3) 55.8% 3.5 55 32.0 41 29.0 71 0.5 42 0.853 27
Purdue Big Ten 7-6 6.0 (-1.0) 54.7% 3.1 56 26.5 68 24.8 52 1.4 21 0.882 42
Tulsa C-USA 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 53.2% 2.5 57 29.8 53 27.3 62 0.0 58 0.865 37
Northern Illinois MAC 11-3 9.7 (-1.3) 52.3% 2.2 58 32.7 32 29.6 72 -0.9 91 0.953 102
Louisiana Tech WAC 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 51.6% 1.9 59 23.6 86 22.9 44 1.2 27 0.941 89
Ohio MAC 10-4 10.3 (0.3) 48.9% 0.9 60 30.3 48 30.8 78 1.5 18 0.979 119
Rutgers Big East 9-4 6.4 (-2.6) 48.6% 0.8 61 20.5 98 19.3 24 -0.4 71 0.930 79
Northwestern Big Ten 6-7 6.7 (0.7) 48.0% 0.6 62 33.3 28 31.2 79 -1.5 107 0.883 44
SMU C-USA 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 47.2% 0.3 63 28.6 56 26.3 57 -2.0 113 0.915 64
Western Michigan MAC 7-6 7.8 (0.8) 45.6% -0.3 64 30.8 44 33.2 89 2.1 5 0.949 100
Nevada WAC 7-6 8.3 (1.3) 45.3% -0.4 65 30.4 47 28.7 68 -2.0 114 0.912 61
Iowa State Big 12 6-7 4.7 (-1.3) 45.1% -0.4 66 24.8 80 25.0 54 -0.3 67 0.823 8
Air Force MWC 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 44.5% -0.7 67 32.9 30 33.9 91 0.3 50 0.930 80
Utah State WAC 7-6 8.4 (1.4) 43.8% -0.9 68 32.7 33 32.5 86 -1.1 97 0.969 113
Connecticut Big East 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 43.6% -1.0 69 19.7 103 21.7 39 1.1 30 0.924 71
NC State ACC 8-5 6.4 (-1.6) 43.5% -1.1 70 24.5 81 24.4 49 -1.2 101 0.926 72
San Diego State MWC 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 42.2% -1.5 71 29.9 50 30.2 75 -1.3 105 0.928 77
Washington State Pac-12 4-8 4.3 (0.3) 41.7% -1.7 72 29.9 51 32.3 84 0.7 39 0.895 52
Bowling Green MAC 5-7 6.8 (1.8) 41.0% -2.0 73 26.6 65 28.5 67 -0.1 62 0.954 104
Hawaii WAC 6-7 7.6 (1.6) 40.7% -2.1 74 29.5 55 31.2 80 -0.4 70 0.975 117
Arizona Pac-12 4-8 4.8 (0.8) 39.8% -2.4 75 35.9 23 36.4 104 -1.9 111 0.838 18
Syracuse Big East 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 38.6% -2.9 76 25.2 78 26.9 60 -1.2 103 0.898 53
East Carolina C-USA 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 38.3% -3.0 77 26.8 63 29.8 73 0.0 57 0.918 66
Arkansas State Sun Belt 9-3 9.4 (0.4) 37.5% -3.3 78 23.3 88 26.2 56 -0.4 74 0.971 115
Wake Forest ACC 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 36.9% -3.5 79 26.4 69 28.9 70 -1.0 96 0.904 56
Minnesota Big Ten 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 36.3% -3.8 80 23.8 84 28.1 65 0.5 41 0.842 20
UTEP C-USA 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 35.4% -4.1 81 26.8 62 31.9 83 0.9 32 0.945 93
Boston College ACC 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 34.5% -4.5 82 21.0 97 24.9 53 -0.5 81 0.895 50
Kentucky SEC 5-7 4.1 (-0.9) 33.3% -5.0 83 16.4 113 23.1 46 1.7 14 0.858 31
Oregon State Pac-12 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 32.8% -5.2 84 25.2 79 30.6 77 0.2 53 0.854 30
Miami-OH MAC 4-8 5.4 (1.4) 32.4% -5.3 85 25.3 76 27.6 63 -3.1 120 0.945 94
Fresno State WAC 4-9 5.9 (1.9) 30.9% -6.0 86 30.4 46 35.7 101 -0.7 85 0.932 81
Maryland ACC 2-10 3.4 (1.4) 26.2% -8.0 87 26.6 66 32.8 87 -1.8 108 0.885 46
Marshall C-USA 7-6 4.5 (-2.5) 26.1% -8.0 88 20.5 99 28.5 66 -0.1 60 0.919 68
Florida International Sun Belt 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 25.1% -8.5 89 17.5 107 26.9 61 0.9 31 0.982 120
Colorado Pac-12 3-10 3.3 (0.3) 24.4% -8.8 90 26.0 72 34.6 96 -0.2 66 0.859 33
Navy Ind 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 23.1% -9.4 91 29.6 54 38.0 110 -1.0 95 0.934 83
Ole Miss SEC 2-10 1.8 (-0.2) 22.6% -9.7 92 19.9 100 31.4 82 1.8 12 0.815 6
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 9-4 7.5 (-1.5) 22.4% -9.8 93 22.0 94 33.1 88 1.3 23 0.953 103
Kent State MAC 5-7 4.5 (-0.5) 21.0% -10.4 94 11.8 118 21.9 40 -0.4 69 0.926 73
San Jose State WAC 5-7 3.4 (-1.6) 18.3% -11.9 95 23.5 87 35.2 97 -0.2 64 0.948 98
Rice C-USA 4-8 3.5 (-0.5) 18.1% -12.0 96 19.6 104 33.7 90 2.1 4 0.921 69
Colorado State MWC 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 17.1% -12.6 97 22.3 93 34.4 92 -0.4 75 0.942 91
Duke ACC 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 15.9% -13.3 98 23.1 90 35.5 99 -0.9 92 0.891 48
Ball State MAC 6-6 3.7 (-2.3) 15.4% -13.6 99 24.4 82 38.4 112 0.5 47 0.923 70
Wyoming MWC 8-5 5.2 (-2.8) 14.5% -14.2 100 24.3 83 36.7 105 -1.8 109 0.928 75
Kansas Big 12 2-10 2.0 (0.0) 13.2% -15.0 101 25.6 73 38.7 114 -2.0 112 0.815 7
Eastern Michigan MAC 6-6 6.4 (0.4) 12.8% -15.3 102 16.1 114 31.4 81 -0.1 59 0.949 99
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 4-8 5.6 (1.6) 12.2% -15.7 103 17.4 108 30.2 76 -2.9 118 0.937 86
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 7-5 5.3 (-1.7) 11.7% -16.1 104 16.9 110 32.4 85 -0.6 82 0.947 97
Indiana Big Ten 1-11 2.0 (1.0) 10.6% -16.9 105 21.8 95 38.5 113 -0.2 65 0.882 43
North Texas Sun Belt 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 9.2% -18.1 106 18.7 105 36.2 103 -0.5 78 0.929 78
Troy Sun Belt 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 8.8% -18.5 107 19.8 102 37.3 106 -1.0 94 0.960 107
New Mexico State WAC 4-9 4.5 (0.5) 8.6% -18.7 108 23.3 89 39.4 116 -2.5 116 0.946 95
Central Michigan MAC 3-9 4.6 (1.6) 8.3% -18.9 109 21.1 96 39.2 115 -0.7 86 0.952 101
UAB C-USA 3-9 2.1 (-0.9) 8.1% -19.2 110 22.9 91 42.8 120 0.7 37 0.934 84
Buffalo MAC 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 7.7% -19.5 111 17.7 106 35.8 102 -1.4 106 0.964 111
Army Ind 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 6.5% -20.9 112 19.9 101 37.7 107 -3.1 119 0.965 112
Tulane C-USA 2-11 3.5 (1.5) 5.6% -21.9 113 16.9 109 37.7 108 -1.1 99 0.969 114
Idaho WAC 2-10 2.1 (0.1) 4.5% -23.5 114 10.5 119 34.5 95 0.5 40 0.942 90
UNLV MWC 2-10 1.9 (-0.1) 4.1% -24.1 115 14.3 116 37.9 109 -0.5 79 0.906 57
Middle Tennessee Sun Belt 2-10 3.5 (1.5) 3.8% -24.6 116 16.6 112 40.0 117 -1.1 98 0.976 118
Memphis C-USA 2-10 2.2 (0.2) 3.2% -25.9 117 14.6 115 38.3 111 -2.2 115 0.963 109
New Mexico MWC 1-11 1.7 (0.7) 2.3% -27.9 118 16.9 111 41.9 119 -2.9 117 0.913 63
Akron MAC 1-11 1.9 (0.9) 1.9% -29.1 119 11.9 117 40.2 118 -0.7 87 0.956 105
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 1-11 1.4 (0.4) 1.4% -30.7 120 6.6 120 35.4 98 -1.9 110 0.946 96