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2012 COLLEGE FOOTBALL S/P+ RATINGS

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Alabama SEC 13-1 12.6 (-0.4) 99.1% 36.5 1 45.7 3 10.7 3 1.5 17 0.819 9
Florida State ACC 12-2 12.5 (0.5) 97.6% 30.8 2 40.8 13 12.7 5 2.7 2 0.906 59
Texas A&M SEC 11-2 10.7 (-0.3) 96.7% 28.8 3 44.7 6 16.0 13 0.0 60 0.810 6
Oklahoma Big 12 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 96.5% 28.5 4 46.0 2 19.9 28 2.4 5 0.822 10
Florida SEC 11-2 10.4 (-0.6) 96.3% 28.0 5 32.2 44 6.6 1 2.5 4 0.806 5
Georgia SEC 12-2 11.3 (-0.7) 96.3% 28.0 6 44.9 5 16.6 15 -0.2 73 0.839 20
Oregon Pac-12 12-1 11.9 (-0.1) 95.8% 27.2 7 46.4 1 17.2 17 -2.0 120 0.868 40
Oklahoma State Big 12 8-5 10.0 (2.0) 93.5% 24.0 8 44.7 7 23.3 41 2.6 3 0.857 33
Ohio State Big Ten 12-0 10.1 (-1.9) 93.3% 23.8 9 40.6 16 17.5 18 0.7 42 0.893 53
LSU SEC 10-3 8.5 (-1.5) 93.2% 23.7 10 34.5 32 12.1 4 1.3 19 0.804 4
Kansas State Big 12 11-2 9.4 (-1.6) 92.3% 22.7 11 41.8 11 20.4 30 1.2 22 0.827 14
USC Pac-12 7-6 8.2 (1.2) 91.6% 21.9 12 40.7 14 18.3 22 -0.5 78 0.867 37
Michigan Big Ten 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 90.0% 20.5 13 36.2 26 16.6 14 0.9 35 0.840 22
Nebraska Big Ten 10-4 10.1 (0.1) 89.7% 20.3 14 39.2 19 19.8 27 0.9 32 0.847 28
Notre Dame Ind 12-1 10.1 (-1.9) 88.4% 19.2 15 33.4 35 13.8 6 -0.4 76 0.815 7
Texas Big 12 9-4 8.2 (-0.8) 87.5% 18.6 16 42.2 10 23.4 43 -0.2 71 0.831 16
Clemson ACC 11-2 10.0 (-1.0) 87.4% 18.5 17 41.5 12 24.1 47 1.1 27 0.883 48
Texas Tech Big 12 8-5 8.2 (0.2) 85.1% 17.0 18 44.1 8 26.5 58 -0.6 80 0.856 32
Arizona State Pac-12 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 84.5% 16.6 19 35.2 31 18.8 24 0.2 55 0.887 49
Oregon State Pac-12 9-4 8.9 (-0.1) 84.2% 16.4 20 33.2 37 19.0 25 2.2 7 0.855 30
South Carolina SEC 10-2 8.9 (-1.1) 83.6% 16.1 21 33.2 36 15.5 11 -1.6 109 0.823 11
Stanford Pac-12 12-2 9.1 (-2.9) 82.4% 15.3 22 29.2 56 14.2 7 0.4 48 0.847 27
Tennessee SEC 5-7 6.8 (1.8) 82.0% 15.1 23 42.6 9 28.3 66 0.7 40 0.824 12
UCLA Pac-12 9-5 9.1 (0.1) 81.5% 14.8 24 36.8 23 22.8 40 0.8 37 0.871 42
Wisconsin Big Ten 8-6 8.7 (0.7) 80.9% 14.5 25 31.5 49 15.9 12 -1.1 96 0.868 39
Ole Miss SEC 6-6 7.9 (1.9) 80.3% 14.2 26 36.9 22 22.8 39 0.1 59 0.798 3
Penn State Big Ten 8-4 7.7 (-0.3) 80.2% 14.1 27 32.7 40 17.0 16 -1.7 110 0.911 60
North Carolina ACC 7-4 8.5 (1.5) 80.2% 14.1 28 39.7 17 26.6 59 0.9 33 0.949 90
Boise State MWC 11-2 10.0 (-1.0) 78.8% 13.4 29 32.2 43 17.7 19 -1.1 97 0.953 94
TCU Big 12 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 77.8% 12.9 30 28.6 58 17.7 20 2.0 11 0.839 21
Virginia Tech ACC 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 77.5% 12.7 31 27.8 63 14.8 8 -0.2 72 0.889 50
Fresno State MWC 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 77.0% 12.5 32 31.9 47 19.6 26 0.2 56 0.941 85
Michigan State Big Ten 7-6 7.7 (0.7) 76.9% 12.4 33 21.3 101 10.2 2 1.3 20 0.858 34
Northern Illinois MAC 12-2 11.9 (-0.1) 76.8% 12.4 34 35.6 29 25.4 54 2.1 10 0.952 93
Arkansas SEC 4-8 6.4 (2.4) 75.2% 11.6 35 36.5 24 24.8 51 -0.1 68 0.826 13
Cincinnati Big East 9-3 10.0 (1.0) 74.2% 11.1 36 33.8 34 23.7 46 1.0 28 0.956 102
Baylor Big 12 8-5 8.4 (0.4) 74.0% 11.0 37 45.2 4 33.3 86 -0.8 86 0.837 19
Utah State WAC 11-2 11.9 (0.9) 73.9% 11.0 38 30.4 53 20.5 31 1.1 24 0.957 105
BYU Ind 8-5 9.1 (1.1) 73.6% 10.9 39 26.3 78 15.0 9 -0.4 77 0.917 63
Louisville Big East 11-2 9.3 (-1.7) 72.7% 10.5 40 35.7 28 24.2 49 -1.0 91 0.921 68
Vanderbilt SEC 8-4 7.5 (-0.5) 71.6% 10.0 41 26.9 70 18.8 23 1.8 13 0.865 36
San Jose State WAC 11-2 10.1 (-0.9) 70.9% 9.7 42 35.2 30 27.3 64 1.8 14 0.954 98
Miami-FL ACC 7-5 6.1 (-0.9) 67.5% 8.2 43 36.9 21 28.8 68 0.1 58 0.861 35
Arizona Pac-12 8-5 7.4 (-0.6) 67.3% 8.2 44 40.7 15 31.5 79 -1.0 92 0.841 23
West Virginia Big 12 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 67.3% 8.1 45 39.1 20 29.4 73 -1.5 105 0.841 24
Mississippi State SEC 8-5 7.8 (-0.2) 67.1% 8.1 46 32.9 38 25.1 53 0.3 50 0.835 17
Northwestern Big Ten 10-3 7.4 (-2.6) 64.9% 7.2 47 30.6 51 24.3 50 0.9 36 0.900 57
Central Florida C-USA 10-4 10.3 (0.3) 62.6% 6.3 48 32.0 46 25.6 55 -0.1 66 0.954 97
Washington Pac-12 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 62.2% 6.1 49 27.7 66 20.0 29 -1.6 107 0.850 29
Georgia Tech ACC 6-7 7.3 (1.3) 62.0% 6.0 50 36.1 27 28.1 65 -2.0 119 0.846 26
Syracuse Big East 8-5 8.8 (0.8) 61.5% 5.8 51 34.3 33 26.8 60 -1.7 111 0.921 67
Pittsburgh Big East 5-7 6.9 (1.9) 61.2% 5.7 52 27.5 69 21.5 33 -0.3 75 0.921 69
NC State ACC 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 60.3% 5.4 53 27.8 64 21.5 34 -0.9 88 0.889 51
California Pac-12 3-9 4.7 (1.7) 60.1% 5.3 54 31.3 50 25.8 56 -0.2 70 0.828 15
Auburn SEC 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 58.7% 4.8 55 28.0 61 25.1 52 1.9 12 0.778 2
Iowa State Big 12 6-7 5.1 (-0.9) 57.9% 4.4 56 26.5 77 23.6 44 1.5 16 0.836 18
Missouri SEC 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 56.6% 3.9 57 25.6 82 21.6 35 -0.1 64 0.761 1
Utah Pac-12 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 56.1% 3.8 58 24.4 87 21.3 32 0.7 41 0.880 46
Tulsa C-USA 11-3 9.7 (-1.3) 53.0% 2.6 59 25.7 81 22.4 38 -0.7 81 0.952 92
San Diego State MWC 9-4 8.1 (-0.9) 52.5% 2.4 60 29.3 55 26.1 57 -0.8 85 0.947 88
Arkansas State Sun Belt 10-3 9.3 (-0.7) 49.3% 1.2 61 32.5 42 30.2 77 -1.0 94 0.933 74
Iowa Big Ten 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 47.5% 0.5 62 22.5 97 22.4 37 0.5 45 0.894 54
Louisiana Tech WAC 9-3 7.9 (-1.1) 46.5% 0.2 63 39.4 18 39.7 114 0.5 47 0.934 75
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 9-4 8.1 (-0.9) 46.2% 0.0 64 32.5 41 34.7 94 2.2 8 0.929 71
Rutgers Big East 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 46.1% 0.0 65 19.9 109 18.0 21 -1.8 115 0.938 82
Kent State MAC 11-3 8.1 (-2.9) 45.6% -0.1 66 26.6 74 28.4 67 1.7 15 0.977 123
Virginia ACC 4-8 5.6 (1.6) 45.3% -0.3 67 24.8 86 23.7 45 -1.4 102 0.919 65
Connecticut Big East 5-7 5.9 (0.9) 44.2% -0.7 68 14.5 120 15.5 10 0.3 52 0.952 91
Minnesota Big Ten 6-7 5.3 (-0.7) 43.7% -0.9 69 23.3 94 24.1 48 -0.1 67 0.895 55
Purdue Big Ten 6-7 5.1 (-0.9) 43.4% -1.0 70 27.6 67 27.0 61 -1.5 106 0.867 38
Marshall C-USA 5-7 6.9 (1.9) 42.3% -1.4 71 31.9 48 33.9 88 0.6 43 0.971 117
Nevada MWC 7-6 8.2 (1.2) 40.9% -2.0 72 36.4 25 37.7 109 -0.7 84 0.955 99
Ball State MAC 9-4 6.7 (-2.3) 39.2% -2.6 73 32.8 39 37.5 108 2.2 9 0.953 96
Boston College ACC 2-10 4.0 (2.0) 38.6% -2.8 74 23.6 90 27.3 63 0.9 34 0.873 43
South Florida Big East 3-9 4.2 (1.2) 37.6% -3.2 75 25.5 84 29.8 74 1.1 26 0.904 58
Troy Sun Belt 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 37.0% -3.5 76 32.0 45 35.7 99 0.3 51 0.964 110
Toledo MAC 9-4 6.3 (-2.7) 35.7% -4.0 77 30.1 54 35.5 98 1.4 18 0.955 100
Bowling Green MAC 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 35.6% -4.0 78 20.7 105 21.7 36 -3.0 124 0.939 84
Washington State Pac-12 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 34.5% -4.4 79 24.4 88 29.0 70 0.2 54 0.870 41
Indiana Big Ten 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 34.1% -4.6 80 30.5 52 35.1 96 -0.1 63 0.912 61
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 33.9% -4.7 81 26.1 80 28.9 69 -1.9 116 0.938 83
East Carolina C-USA 8-5 6.0 (-2.0) 31.9% -5.5 82 27.5 68 33.0 84 -0.1 65 0.955 101
Houston C-USA 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 31.7% -5.6 83 26.2 79 32.9 83 1.1 23 0.969 113
Duke ACC 6-7 5.2 (-0.8) 28.1% -7.1 84 28.3 60 36.4 104 1.0 31 0.875 44
Middle Tennessee Sun Belt 9-3 6.3 (-2.7) 27.2% -7.5 85 27.7 65 34.4 92 -0.8 87 0.975 120
SMU C-USA 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 27.0% -7.6 86 20.8 104 27.1 62 -1.3 101 0.917 64
Rice C-USA 7-6 5.4 (-1.6) 27.0% -7.6 87 25.6 83 34.0 89 0.8 39 0.971 118
Maryland ACC 4-8 4.3 (0.3) 26.6% -7.8 88 17.6 117 23.3 42 -2.1 121 0.893 52
Ohio MAC 9-4 7.1 (-1.9) 26.1% -8.0 89 23.8 89 32.1 81 0.3 49 0.976 122
Navy Ind 8-5 5.8 (-2.2) 25.9% -8.1 90 28.8 57 36.3 103 -0.7 83 0.935 77
Kentucky SEC 2-10 2.5 (0.5) 24.7% -8.7 91 22.3 98 29.8 75 -1.2 99 0.844 25
Colorado State MWC 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 22.5% -9.7 92 19.7 110 30.3 78 0.8 38 0.947 89
Illinois Big Ten 2-10 3.2 (1.2) 22.4% -9.8 93 21.2 102 32.1 80 1.0 29 0.882 47
Western Michigan MAC 4-8 5.9 (1.9) 22.4% -9.8 94 25.4 85 33.0 85 -2.2 122 0.973 119
Air Force MWC 6-7 6.2 (0.2) 22.1% -10.0 95 28.0 62 36.2 102 -1.7 114 0.957 104
Memphis C-USA 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 22.1% -10.0 96 19.3 111 29.2 71 0.0 62 0.980 124
UAB C-USA 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 20.0% -11.1 97 26.6 75 38.2 110 0.5 44 0.934 76
Temple Big East 4-7 3.6 (-0.4) 19.0% -11.6 98 21.6 99 36.0 100 2.8 1 0.937 80
Central Michigan MAC 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 18.9% -11.6 99 28.4 59 40.0 116 0.0 61 0.966 111
Wake Forest ACC 5-7 4.3 (-0.7) 18.4% -11.9 100 20.1 107 30.1 76 -1.9 117 0.878 45
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 8-5 5.6 (-2.4) 18.3% -12.0 101 26.6 72 37.1 106 -1.5 104 0.963 109
Kansas Big 12 1-11 1.9 (0.9) 17.2% -12.6 102 23.5 92 34.1 90 -2.0 118 0.817 8
Florida International Sun Belt 3-9 6.0 (3.0) 16.9% -12.7 103 23.5 91 34.6 93 -1.7 112 0.969 114
Texas State WAC 4-8 4.6 (0.6) 16.7% -12.9 104 26.5 76 41.8 118 2.4 6 0.953 95
New Mexico MWC 4-9 4.4 (0.4) 15.9% -13.4 105 26.6 71 39.8 115 -0.2 69 0.936 78
Wyoming MWC 4-8 4.6 (0.6) 14.6% -14.2 106 26.6 73 39.2 112 -1.6 108 0.943 86
North Texas Sun Belt 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 14.2% -14.4 107 21.4 100 34.9 95 -0.9 89 0.930 72
UTEP C-USA 3-9 2.8 (-0.2) 11.8% -16.1 108 21.1 103 36.6 105 -0.7 82 0.916 62
Miami-OH MAC 4-8 3.0 (-1.0) 11.7% -16.2 109 22.7 96 39.4 113 0.5 46 0.937 81
Buffalo MAC 4-8 5.1 (1.1) 11.6% -16.3 110 14.2 121 29.4 72 -1.2 100 0.932 73
UNLV MWC 2-11 3.1 (1.1) 11.0% -16.7 111 19.0 112 35.4 97 -0.3 74 0.961 108
Colorado Pac-12 1-11 1.4 (0.4) 10.5% -17.2 112 20.2 106 37.5 107 0.2 57 0.856 31
Florida Atlantic Sun Belt 3-9 4.7 (1.7) 9.7% -17.9 113 18.4 114 33.6 87 -2.7 123 0.899 56
Southern Miss C-USA 0-12 2.3 (2.3) 8.8% -18.6 114 18.4 113 36.0 101 -1.0 95 0.936 79
Hawaii MWC 3-9 3.1 (0.1) 8.3% -19.1 115 14.7 118 32.8 82 -1.0 93 0.928 70
Akron MAC 1-11 3.2 (2.2) 7.9% -19.5 116 20.0 108 39.0 111 -0.5 79 0.956 103
UTSA WAC 6-4 4.2 (-1.8) 7.4% -20.1 117 23.5 93 42.4 120 -1.1 98 0.970 116
Tulane C-USA 2-10 2.2 (0.2) 5.3% -22.5 118 17.8 116 41.3 117 1.0 30 0.967 112
Eastern Michigan MAC 2-10 2.2 (0.2) 5.0% -23.0 119 17.9 115 42.2 119 1.2 21 0.961 107
Army Ind 2-10 3.1 (1.1) 4.9% -23.1 120 23.1 95 44.8 123 -1.4 103 0.969 115
South Alabama Sun Belt 2-11 2.2 (0.2) 3.5% -25.5 121 9.7 123 34.3 91 -0.9 90 0.976 121
Idaho WAC 1-11 2.0 (1.0) 1.6% -30.6 122 11.6 122 43.2 122 1.1 25 0.920 66
New Mexico State WAC 1-11 2.0 (1.0) 1.0% -33.3 123 14.5 119 46.1 124 -1.7 113 0.958 106
Massachusetts MAC 1-11 0.9 (-0.1) 0.8% -34.4 124 8.4 124 43.1 121 0.3 53 0.945 87