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2013 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Florida State ACC 14-0 13.5 (-0.5) 98.7% 38.5 1 47.7 3 11.5 2 2.2 5 0.898 62
Alabama SEC 11-2 12.0 (1.0) 97.5% 34.1 2 45.6 6 12.3 4 0.8 37 0.856 26
Oregon Pac-12 11-2 10.9 (-0.1) 95.0% 28.7 3 46.8 4 18.1 13 0.0 72 0.883 51
LSU SEC 10-3 10.2 (0.2) 95.0% 28.7 4 45.2 7 18.7 16 2.2 7 0.828 11
Ohio State Big Ten 12-2 11.2 (-0.8) 94.7% 28.4 5 48.8 2 23.4 44 3.0 2 0.897 60
Auburn SEC 12-2 9.1 (-2.9) 92.4% 25.2 6 46.8 5 23.4 45 1.9 15 0.790 1
Georgia SEC 8-5 9.2 (1.2) 92.3% 25.1 7 44.9 8 21.8 33 1.9 13 0.835 14
Clemson ACC 11-2 10.3 (-0.7) 91.8% 24.5 8 42.4 10 19.6 19 1.6 17 0.839 16
Louisville AAC 12-1 11.9 (-0.1) 91.5% 24.2 9 39.1 17 15.2 9 0.3 55 0.958 101
USC Pac-12 10-4 9.5 (-0.5) 89.9% 22.5 10 36.6 27 12.5 6 -1.6 114 0.882 50
Wisconsin Big Ten 9-4 10.3 (1.3) 89.7% 22.4 11 39.5 16 15.6 11 -1.5 110 0.889 54
Oklahoma State Big 12 10-3 11.6 (1.6) 89.1% 21.8 12 36.8 26 14.0 7 -1.1 104 0.877 48
Stanford Pac-12 11-3 10.6 (-0.4) 89.0% 21.7 13 35.8 32 15.5 10 1.3 24 0.828 12
Kansas State Big 12 8-5 9.1 (1.1) 88.9% 21.7 14 40.4 13 20.0 22 1.3 23 0.895 58
Washington Pac-12 9-4 9.5 (0.5) 87.6% 20.5 15 37.6 23 18.3 14 1.1 28 0.859 31
Texas A&M SEC 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 87.5% 20.4 16 50.5 1 31.3 83 1.2 27 0.843 19
Baylor Big 12 10-2 10.0 (0.0) 87.4% 20.4 17 41.0 11 21.0 27 0.3 53 0.892 56
UCLA Pac-12 10-3 9.0 (-1.0) 87.0% 20.0 18 39.0 18 20.4 25 1.4 21 0.839 15
South Carolina SEC 11-2 9.4 (-1.6) 86.8% 19.8 19 40.7 12 20.6 26 -0.3 79 0.852 24
Michigan State Big Ten 13-1 11.0 (-2.0) 86.6% 19.7 20 28.9 66 11.6 3 2.4 4 0.896 59
Oklahoma Big 12 11-2 8.0 (-3.0) 86.4% 19.6 21 36.2 30 18.3 15 1.6 16 0.848 21
Missouri SEC 12-2 10.0 (-2.0) 86.1% 19.3 22 42.6 9 23.1 40 -0.2 78 0.858 28
Arizona State Pac-12 10-4 8.8 (-1.2) 83.6% 17.5 23 40.0 14 22.0 35 -0.4 83 0.822 7
Iowa Big Ten 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 83.3% 17.3 24 29.6 58 12.4 5 0.1 60 0.859 30
Miami-FL ACC 9-4 7.5 (-1.5) 82.8% 16.9 25 39.8 15 24.0 47 1.2 26 0.867 37
Virginia Tech ACC 8-5 8.2 (0.2) 79.5% 14.9 26 26.0 77 9.6 1 -1.6 115 0.861 32
Arizona Pac-12 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 79.0% 14.6 27 37.2 24 21.1 28 -1.5 111 0.862 33
Texas Tech Big 12 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 77.9% 14.0 28 37.9 22 24.1 48 0.2 59 0.879 49
North Carolina ACC 7-6 8.2 (1.2) 77.5% 13.7 29 34.2 39 21.4 30 1.0 31 0.909 66
Notre Dame Ind 9-4 7.6 (-1.4) 76.6% 13.2 30 35.2 35 21.9 34 -0.1 74 0.873 45
TCU Big 12 4-8 6.8 (2.8) 75.0% 12.4 31 24.9 88 15.0 8 2.5 3 0.848 22
Ole Miss SEC 8-5 7.8 (-0.2) 75.0% 12.4 32 36.6 29 23.2 42 -1.0 101 0.823 8
Central Florida AAC 12-1 10.2 (-1.8) 75.0% 12.3 33 38.4 19 27.4 72 1.3 22 0.920 68
Oregon State Pac-12 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 74.1% 11.9 34 38.0 21 26.6 65 0.4 51 0.856 27
Utah Pac-12 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 73.8% 11.8 35 30.1 56 19.9 21 1.5 20 0.831 13
Nebraska Big Ten 9-4 7.5 (-1.5) 73.6% 11.6 36 32.3 47 22.8 39 2.2 8 0.893 57
Georgia Tech ACC 6-6 6.8 (0.8) 73.1% 11.4 37 35.3 34 24.9 52 1.0 32 0.873 44
Boise State MWC 8-5 8.9 (0.9) 72.9% 11.3 38 35.0 36 25.6 58 1.9 14 0.945 89
Michigan Big Ten 7-6 6.8 (-0.2) 72.5% 11.1 39 31.2 53 20.2 24 0.1 64 0.872 42
Maryland ACC 7-6 6.9 (-0.1) 72.0% 10.8 40 29.6 59 19.8 20 1.1 30 0.888 53
Mississippi State SEC 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 71.8% 10.7 41 34.6 37 22.2 36 -1.7 117 0.811 5
Texas Big 12 8-5 5.8 (-2.2) 71.4% 10.5 42 29.4 62 20.1 23 1.2 25 0.840 17
BYU Ind 8-5 9.4 (1.4) 70.4% 10.0 43 28.3 67 18.9 17 0.6 43 0.899 63
Bowling Green MAC 10-4 10.5 (0.5) 69.9% 9.8 44 33.8 40 24.6 51 0.6 45 0.971 118
Pittsburgh ACC 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 69.1% 9.4 45 32.9 46 22.3 38 -1.2 106 0.871 39
Florida SEC 4-8 5.4 (1.4) 68.2% 9.0 46 25.8 81 15.9 12 -0.9 95 0.801 4
Penn State Big Ten 7-5 7.0 (0.0) 68.0% 8.9 47 31.6 52 21.6 32 -1.2 105 0.897 61
Fresno State MWC 11-2 9.4 (-1.6) 67.8% 8.8 48 36.1 31 26.7 66 -0.6 90 0.958 102
Marshall C-USA 9-4 11.1 (2.1) 66.7% 8.3 49 33.4 43 25.5 57 0.4 52 0.969 116
Washington State Pac-12 6-7 5.8 (-0.2) 66.5% 8.2 50 33.6 41 26.3 62 0.8 36 0.823 9
Cincinnati AAC 9-4 9.8 (0.8) 65.8% 7.8 51 31.9 50 21.6 31 -2.5 127 0.953 96
East Carolina C-USA 10-3 11.0 (1.0) 65.0% 7.5 52 33.3 44 23.8 46 -2.0 121 0.963 108
Ball State MAC 10-3 10.6 (0.6) 65.0% 7.5 53 38.3 20 31.3 85 0.5 48 0.985 122
Vanderbilt SEC 9-4 8.0 (-1.0) 65.0% 7.5 54 29.1 65 22.2 37 0.6 46 0.885 52
Boston College ACC 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 64.1% 7.1 55 32.0 49 27.0 68 2.1 9 0.848 23
Northern Illinois MAC 12-2 10.9 (-1.1) 62.4% 6.3 56 36.6 28 29.8 76 -0.5 86 0.962 107
Tennessee SEC 5-7 4.5 (-0.5) 59.7% 5.1 57 29.2 63 26.1 60 1.9 12 0.800 2
Duke ACC 10-4 8.5 (-1.5) 59.3% 5.0 58 32.0 48 27.2 70 0.1 61 0.874 46
Houston AAC 8-5 8.1 (0.1) 59.2% 4.9 59 29.4 60 25.4 56 0.8 38 0.937 79
Toledo MAC 7-5 7.2 (0.2) 58.7% 4.7 60 35.8 33 33.4 89 2.2 6 0.947 90
Utah State MWC 9-5 9.1 (0.1) 57.7% 4.2 61 23.3 93 19.5 18 0.5 49 0.936 78
Northwestern Big Ten 5-7 6.3 (1.3) 57.5% 4.2 62 29.4 61 25.9 59 0.6 42 0.874 47
Colorado State MWC 8-6 8.4 (0.4) 54.8% 3.0 63 31.8 51 29.5 74 0.7 40 0.937 81
Minnesota Big Ten 8-5 5.2 (-2.8) 53.7% 2.5 64 25.6 84 25.0 53 2.0 11 0.905 64
Arkansas SEC 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 51.3% 1.5 65 30.0 57 30.6 80 2.1 10 0.817 6
Indiana Big Ten 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 51.0% 1.4 66 37.1 25 35.9 99 0.1 63 0.865 35
North Texas C-USA 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 50.0% 1.0 67 25.1 86 23.1 41 -1.1 103 0.961 105
Syracuse ACC 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 47.6% 0.0 68 25.9 79 23.2 43 -2.7 129 0.872 43
Navy Ind 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 47.0% -0.3 69 33.4 42 33.5 93 -0.2 77 0.964 111
NC State ACC 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 46.5% -0.5 70 25.0 87 26.5 63 0.9 34 0.872 41
Colorado Pac-12 3-8 4.3 (1.3) 46.0% -0.7 71 28.0 68 28.3 73 -0.4 82 0.840 18
West Virginia Big 12 4-8 3.9 (-0.1) 45.5% -0.9 72 25.9 78 27.2 69 0.3 54 0.867 36
Rice C-USA 10-4 8.3 (-1.7) 44.2% -1.5 73 24.0 91 26.1 61 0.7 41 0.957 99
Kentucky SEC 2-10 3.0 (1.0) 41.9% -2.5 74 27.6 70 31.2 82 1.1 29 0.825 10
Wake Forest ACC 3-8 5.4 (2.4) 41.3% -2.8 75 19.4 103 21.3 29 -0.9 97 0.868 38
Western Kentucky Sun Belt 8-4 8.8 (0.8) 40.5% -3.1 76 30.5 55 33.5 91 -0.1 76 0.988 124
Memphis AAC 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 40.2% -3.2 77 18.0 107 24.3 50 3.0 1 0.942 85
Iowa State Big 12 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 38.9% -3.8 78 25.7 83 29.7 75 0.2 58 0.858 29
Illinois Big Ten 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 38.6% -4.0 79 34.2 38 36.8 102 -1.4 108 0.865 34
San Diego State MWC 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 36.6% -4.8 80 26.9 72 29.9 77 -1.8 119 0.937 80
San Jose State MWC 6-6 5.5 (-0.5) 36.1% -5.1 81 33.0 45 38.6 110 0.5 47 0.951 93
Virginia ACC 2-10 2.1 (0.1) 35.7% -5.2 82 21.3 98 26.5 64 -0.1 75 0.845 20
UTSA C-USA 7-5 7.0 (0.0) 32.7% -6.6 83 25.9 80 30.3 78 -2.2 123 0.943 87
Florida Atlantic C-USA 6-6 7.5 (1.5) 32.7% -6.6 84 18.9 106 25.0 54 -0.5 85 0.936 77
Tulane C-USA 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 29.8% -8.0 85 15.6 114 24.1 49 0.4 50 0.983 120
Rutgers AAC 6-7 6.0 (0.0) 29.7% -8.1 86 24.0 90 31.6 88 -0.5 87 0.930 72
California Pac-12 1-11 1.3 (0.3) 28.5% -8.7 87 27.7 69 37.1 104 0.8 39 0.800 3
Buffalo MAC 8-5 7.3 (-0.7) 27.8% -9.0 88 22.3 96 30.4 79 -1.0 99 0.933 73
Kansas Big 12 3-9 2.8 (-0.2) 26.5% -9.7 89 16.0 112 25.3 55 -0.3 80 0.872 40
UNLV MWC 7-6 6.3 (-0.7) 25.6% -10.1 90 26.8 73 34.2 96 -2.7 128 0.966 114
South Alabama Sun Belt 6-6 7.4 (1.4) 25.5% -10.2 91 25.2 85 34.3 97 -1.1 102 0.988 123
Temple AAC 2-10 5.0 (3.0) 24.5% -10.7 92 27.6 71 37.0 103 -1.3 107 0.934 75
Ohio MAC 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 23.2% -11.4 93 22.5 95 33.5 92 -0.5 88 0.949 92
Middle Tennessee C-USA 8-5 6.5 (-1.5) 22.6% -11.8 94 23.3 94 34.2 95 -0.8 93 0.959 103
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 9-4 7.3 (-1.7) 21.3% -12.5 95 26.2 76 38.2 108 -0.6 89 0.971 119
Connecticut AAC 3-9 3.5 (0.5) 20.2% -13.2 96 15.9 113 26.8 67 -2.3 124 0.930 71
Texas State Sun Belt 6-6 5.6 (-0.4) 19.3% -13.7 97 17.1 111 31.4 86 0.6 44 0.983 121
Kent State MAC 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 19.2% -13.8 98 21.2 99 34.0 94 -1.0 100 0.933 74
Hawaii MWC 1-11 3.5 (2.5) 18.4% -14.3 99 23.4 92 35.6 98 -2.2 122 0.941 84
Troy Sun Belt 6-6 5.3 (-0.7) 18.1% -14.5 100 29.1 64 43.8 116 0.2 57 0.971 117
New Mexico MWC 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 17.4% -14.9 101 30.9 54 45.9 121 0.1 62 0.962 106
SMU AAC 5-7 4.2 (-0.8) 16.9% -15.2 102 21.8 97 36.2 100 -0.8 91 0.928 69
Akron MAC 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 16.8% -15.3 103 17.9 108 30.9 81 -2.3 126 0.952 94
Wyoming MWC 5-7 5.1 (0.1) 16.8% -15.3 104 26.7 74 39.1 112 -3.0 130 0.961 104
South Florida AAC 2-10 1.8 (-0.2) 16.6% -15.5 105 10.8 122 27.2 71 0.9 33 0.908 65
Purdue Big Ten 1-11 0.9 (-0.1) 16.3% -15.7 106 19.2 104 33.4 90 -1.5 112 0.855 25
Arkansas State Sun Belt 7-5 6.0 (-1.0) 15.6% -16.2 107 20.8 100 37.9 106 0.9 35 0.943 86
Louisiana Tech C-USA 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 14.7% -16.8 108 14.2 115 31.3 84 0.2 56 0.989 125
Nevada MWC 4-8 3.3 (-0.7) 14.6% -16.8 109 25.7 82 42.6 114 0.0 65 0.890 55
Air Force MWC 2-10 3.1 (1.1) 14.5% -16.9 110 26.6 75 45.2 119 1.6 18 0.964 110
Tulsa C-USA 3-9 3.4 (0.4) 12.3% -18.7 111 12.9 121 31.6 87 -0.1 73 0.944 88
Central Michigan MAC 6-6 4.7 (-1.3) 12.2% -18.8 112 19.7 102 37.6 105 -0.9 96 0.969 115
UAB C-USA 2-10 2.5 (0.5) 9.9% -20.8 113 24.1 89 46.5 122 1.6 19 0.938 82
Southern Miss C-USA 1-11 2.5 (1.5) 6.6% -24.5 114 13.6 117 36.5 101 -1.7 116 0.957 100
Army Ind 2-10 3.1 (1.1) 6.6% -24.6 115 20.8 101 44.5 118 -0.8 92 0.956 98
Western Michigan MAC 1-11 2.4 (1.4) 5.9% -25.5 116 13.9 116 38.5 109 -0.9 98 0.939 83
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 6-6 3.5 (-2.5) 5.4% -26.2 117 13.4 119 38.1 107 -1.5 109 0.952 95
UTEP C-USA 2-10 2.1 (0.1) 3.9% -28.9 118 19.0 105 45.6 120 -2.3 125 0.966 113
Miami-OH MAC 0-12 0.2 (0.2) 3.8% -29.0 119 10.2 123 38.8 111 -0.4 81 0.965 112
Georgia State Sun Belt 0-12 2.5 (2.5) 2.4% -32.6 120 13.3 120 44.4 117 -1.5 113 0.947 91
New Mexico State Ind 2-10 1.4 (-0.6) 1.7% -35.1 121 17.7 110 52.4 125 -0.4 84 0.954 97
Idaho Ind 1-11 1.2 (0.2) 1.5% -35.6 122 13.6 118 48.4 123 -0.9 94 0.909 67
Eastern Michigan MAC 2-10 1.4 (-0.6) 1.5% -35.7 123 17.8 109 50.4 124 -3.1 131 0.964 109
Massachusetts MAC 1-11 1.3 (0.3) 1.4% -36.1 124 6.4 125 40.7 113 -1.7 118 0.929 70
Florida International C-USA 1-11 0.9 (-0.1) 0.9% -38.9 125 6.4 124 43.4 115 -1.9 120 0.936 76