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2014 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Alabama SEC 12-2 11.7 (-0.3) 99.2% 34.3 1 44.5 5 10.7 1 0.5 45 0.793 6
Florida State ACC 13-1 10.3 (-2.7) 97.6% 28.5 2 45.0 4 18.9 17 2.3 5 0.863 33
Georgia SEC 10-3 10.5 (0.5) 97.2% 27.6 3 44.2 6 16.8 10 0.1 58 0.836 15
Ohio State Big Ten 14-1 12.8 (-1.2) 96.3% 25.8 4 45.6 2 20.1 24 0.3 50 0.840 18
Oregon Pac-12 13-2 12.4 (-0.6) 95.5% 24.7 5 48.1 1 23.2 41 -0.2 71 0.844 21
Auburn SEC 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 95.2% 24.2 6 45.2 3 22.1 34 1.1 30 0.755 1
Michigan State Big Ten 11-2 10.4 (-0.6) 95.1% 24.1 7 42.5 12 17.9 14 -0.4 80 0.868 40
Baylor Big 12 11-2 10.4 (-0.6) 94.9% 23.9 8 43.0 11 19.5 21 0.4 49 0.874 45
TCU Big 12 12-1 11.2 (-0.8) 94.4% 23.3 9 39.3 17 17.5 13 1.5 16 0.873 43
Mississippi State SEC 10-3 9.6 (-0.4) 93.4% 22.2 10 43.2 10 20.7 26 -0.3 72 0.823 13
LSU SEC 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 92.7% 21.5 11 34.2 34 13.3 5 0.6 41 0.786 5
Stanford Pac-12 8-5 9.8 (1.8) 92.6% 21.4 12 33.5 38 12.0 4 -0.1 68 0.880 49
Wisconsin Big Ten 11-3 11.0 (0.0) 92.0% 20.8 13 38.7 19 18.1 15 0.2 56 0.880 48
Ole Miss SEC 9-4 9.0 (0.0) 91.8% 20.7 14 35.4 31 14.4 7 -0.3 75 0.782 4
Texas A&M SEC 8-5 6.9 (-1.1) 91.2% 20.2 15 43.6 8 26.3 61 2.8 1 0.794 7
Missouri SEC 11-3 9.8 (-1.2) 90.2% 19.3 16 33.0 43 15.2 8 1.5 19 0.823 12
Oklahoma Big 12 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 90.1% 19.2 17 39.9 16 22.2 35 1.6 14 0.864 34
Clemson ACC 10-3 8.8 (-1.2) 88.6% 18.1 18 29.0 67 11.6 3 0.8 37 0.844 20
UCLA Pac-12 10-3 9.3 (-0.7) 87.9% 17.7 19 39.9 14 23.0 39 0.8 33 0.853 27
South Carolina SEC 7-6 6.8 (-0.2) 87.4% 17.4 20 43.6 9 26.5 62 0.3 54 0.816 11
Florida SEC 7-5 7.4 (0.4) 87.2% 17.3 21 29.8 62 14.1 6 1.6 13 0.777 3
USC Pac-12 9-4 8.1 (-0.9) 87.0% 17.1 22 38.8 18 22.5 36 0.8 34 0.888 54
Louisville ACC 9-4 9.8 (0.8) 86.8% 17.0 23 34.0 36 16.7 9 -0.3 76 0.859 30
Marshall C-USA 13-1 13.1 (0.1) 86.5% 16.8 24 38.4 20 23.1 40 1.5 18 0.985 128
Kansas State Big 12 9-4 8.7 (-0.3) 85.6% 16.3 25 37.7 22 23.2 42 1.8 9 0.846 23
Pittsburgh ACC 6-7 9.3 (3.3) 81.6% 14.1 26 37.4 24 25.3 56 2.0 7 0.931 73
Miami-FL ACC 6-7 8.1 (2.1) 81.2% 13.9 27 35.0 32 21.3 29 0.2 57 0.860 31
Arizona State Pac-12 10-3 8.3 (-1.7) 80.3% 13.5 28 36.1 29 23.3 43 0.7 38 0.891 56
Nebraska Big Ten 9-4 8.9 (-0.1) 79.4% 13.1 29 33.8 37 21.0 28 0.3 51 0.891 57
Tennessee SEC 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 77.6% 12.2 30 31.0 53 19.9 23 1.1 28 0.796 8
Arkansas SEC 7-6 7.5 (0.5) 77.6% 12.2 31 32.4 47 19.4 20 -0.8 94 0.760 2
Boise State MWC 12-2 11.3 (-0.7) 76.2% 11.6 32 36.6 25 24.7 53 -0.3 73 0.938 82
Georgia Tech ACC 11-3 10.0 (-1.0) 75.1% 11.2 33 44.1 7 32.0 92 -0.9 101 0.839 17
Notre Dame Ind 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 74.2% 10.8 34 37.5 23 26.0 59 -0.6 89 0.844 19
BYU Ind 8-5 9.2 (1.2) 72.7% 10.2 35 33.1 41 24.1 47 1.2 27 0.945 91
Penn State Big Ten 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 70.2% 9.2 36 20.6 110 11.0 2 -0.4 81 0.899 63
Texas Big 12 6-7 6.5 (0.5) 69.7% 9.0 37 26.0 84 17.2 12 0.3 53 0.845 22
Utah Pac-12 9-4 6.3 (-2.7) 69.0% 8.8 38 29.1 66 23.0 38 2.7 2 0.867 39
Oklahoma State Big 12 7-6 6.3 (-0.7) 68.7% 8.6 39 32.0 50 24.0 46 0.6 39 0.838 16
East Carolina AAC 8-5 10.7 (2.7) 68.3% 8.5 40 34.7 33 24.6 52 -1.5 115 0.937 80
West Virginia Big 12 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 68.1% 8.4 41 31.3 52 24.3 49 1.5 22 0.811 9
Michigan Big Ten 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 67.4% 8.2 42 27.0 76 19.0 19 0.1 59 0.880 50
NC State ACC 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 67.1% 8.1 43 34.1 35 27.1 63 1.0 31 0.896 62
Washington Pac-12 8-6 7.6 (-0.4) 66.5% 7.8 44 28.5 69 21.8 31 1.2 26 0.892 61
Virginia Tech ACC 7-6 6.5 (-0.5) 66.5% 7.8 45 25.7 86 17.2 11 -0.7 92 0.891 58
Arizona Pac-12 10-4 7.6 (-2.4) 65.9% 7.6 46 33.4 39 25.7 58 -0.1 67 0.866 38
Duke ACC 9-4 7.4 (-1.6) 64.1% 7.0 47 29.6 64 25.1 55 2.5 4 0.929 71
Cincinnati AAC 9-4 8.9 (-0.1) 64.0% 6.9 48 36.3 28 29.8 81 0.4 48 0.920 68
Iowa Big Ten 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 63.6% 6.8 49 32.5 45 24.2 48 -1.5 114 0.907 66
Minnesota Big Ten 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 63.6% 6.8 50 29.7 63 24.3 50 1.4 24 0.861 32
Kentucky SEC 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 63.1% 6.6 51 29.8 60 24.8 54 1.6 15 0.815 10
Utah State MWC 10-4 10.6 (0.6) 61.3% 6.0 52 25.2 90 18.6 16 -0.5 85 0.955 103
Maryland Big Ten 7-6 6.8 (-0.2) 60.4% 5.7 53 30.4 55 26.1 60 1.4 25 0.852 26
Central Florida AAC 9-4 7.3 (-1.7) 60.4% 5.7 54 25.8 85 19.7 22 -0.4 79 0.936 77
Memphis AAC 10-3 9.5 (-0.5) 60.3% 5.6 55 26.5 79 22.0 32 1.1 29 0.932 74
Houston AAC 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 59.8% 5.4 56 30.4 54 23.6 44 -1.4 113 0.952 97
Texas Tech Big 12 4-8 5.7 (1.7) 58.1% 4.9 57 39.9 15 35.3 110 0.2 55 0.858 29
Boston College ACC 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 58.0% 4.9 58 28.7 68 23.7 45 -0.2 69 0.864 37
Colorado State MWC 10-3 9.5 (-0.5) 57.0% 4.5 59 33.2 40 29.2 75 0.6 42 0.961 114
Virginia ACC 5-7 5.6 (0.6) 55.4% 4.0 60 23.5 96 20.4 25 0.8 35 0.851 25
Navy Ind 8-5 8.3 (0.3) 53.7% 3.4 61 36.5 27 32.5 95 -0.6 87 0.940 86
Oregon State Pac-12 5-7 6.0 (1.0) 53.2% 3.2 62 30.3 56 27.9 68 0.9 32 0.881 51
Toledo MAC 9-4 8.3 (-0.7) 50.4% 2.3 63 38.0 21 35.2 109 -0.5 86 0.957 104
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 9-4 8.6 (-0.4) 50.0% 2.2 64 30.0 59 29.3 76 1.5 20 0.954 100
Indiana Big Ten 4-8 4.6 (0.6) 49.0% 1.8 65 30.1 58 27.8 66 -0.5 84 0.874 44
Northwestern Big Ten 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 47.9% 1.5 66 23.7 94 21.6 30 -0.7 90 0.905 64
San Diego State MWC 7-6 9.1 (2.1) 46.6% 1.0 67 25.1 91 24.6 51 0.5 43 0.970 119
Illinois Big Ten 6-7 5.7 (-0.3) 44.7% 0.4 68 28.3 71 27.9 67 -0.1 64 0.892 59
North Carolina ACC 6-7 4.1 (-1.9) 43.6% 0.0 69 35.8 30 35.1 108 -0.7 91 0.890 55
Arkansas State Sun Belt 7-6 7.0 (0.0) 42.5% -0.3 70 31.5 51 31.6 90 -0.2 70 0.955 101
California Pac-12 5-7 4.9 (-0.1) 41.8% -0.6 71 36.6 26 36.3 113 -0.8 97 0.864 36
Northern Illinois MAC 11-3 8.7 (-2.3) 41.8% -0.6 72 29.8 61 29.6 79 -0.8 96 0.958 105
Western Michigan MAC 8-5 9.1 (1.1) 41.2% -0.8 73 30.2 57 31.8 91 0.8 36 0.976 123
Air Force MWC 10-3 8.8 (-1.2) 39.4% -1.4 74 26.2 81 29.5 78 1.9 8 0.964 116
Rutgers Big Ten 8-5 6.3 (-1.7) 39.2% -1.5 75 32.0 48 33.1 98 -0.4 78 0.868 41
Louisiana Tech C-USA 9-5 9.0 (0.0) 38.6% -1.7 76 27.0 77 27.5 64 -1.1 107 0.921 69
Washington State Pac-12 3-9 4.6 (1.6) 38.6% -1.7 77 33.0 42 32.8 97 -1.9 120 0.872 42
Syracuse ACC 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 37.4% -2.1 78 18.8 116 20.9 27 0.0 61 0.864 35
Georgia Southern Sun Belt 9-3 8.8 (-0.2) 36.5% -2.4 79 32.0 49 33.4 99 -1.0 104 0.969 118
Western Kentucky C-USA 8-5 6.9 (-1.1) 35.9% -2.6 80 40.1 13 41.6 123 -1.1 108 0.962 115
Rice C-USA 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 34.5% -3.1 81 27.9 73 29.8 80 -1.2 111 0.942 88
UTSA C-USA 4-8 5.1 (1.1) 33.9% -3.4 82 16.6 122 22.1 33 2.2 6 0.966 117
UAB C-USA 6-6 5.6 (-0.4) 31.5% -4.2 83 26.0 83 32.8 96 2.5 3 0.933 75
Vanderbilt SEC 3-9 2.7 (-0.3) 31.4% -4.3 84 22.0 106 25.3 57 -0.9 103 0.828 14
South Alabama Sun Belt 6-7 6.2 (0.2) 31.3% -4.3 85 23.4 98 28.3 72 0.6 40 0.938 84
Temple AAC 6-6 6.2 (0.2) 30.3% -4.7 86 15.8 124 18.9 18 -1.6 116 0.946 92
Colorado Pac-12 2-10 3.9 (1.9) 29.6% -5.0 87 32.5 46 38.9 118 1.5 21 0.876 46
Central Michigan MAC 7-6 8.2 (1.2) 29.0% -5.2 88 26.1 82 30.2 83 -1.1 106 0.979 126
Bowling Green MAC 8-6 5.2 (-2.8) 28.5% -5.4 89 27.7 74 33.5 100 0.4 47 0.958 107
Purdue Big Ten 3-9 2.9 (-0.1) 26.5% -6.2 90 22.7 101 30.2 84 1.4 23 0.888 53
Ball State MAC 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 25.4% -6.6 91 25.6 87 33.9 103 1.7 10 0.976 122
Fresno State MWC 6-8 5.7 (-0.3) 24.7% -6.9 92 24.5 93 31.0 88 -0.4 82 0.936 78
Nevada MWC 7-6 4.3 (-2.7) 23.7% -7.3 93 26.7 78 33.7 102 -0.3 77 0.951 95
Texas State Sun Belt 7-5 6.2 (-0.8) 23.5% -7.4 94 27.9 72 35.3 111 -0.1 66 0.978 125
Buffalo MAC 5-6 5.8 (0.8) 22.9% -7.7 95 27.1 75 33.5 101 -1.2 112 0.961 113
Wake Forest ACC 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 22.5% -7.8 96 13.1 128 22.6 37 1.6 12 0.882 52
Iowa State Big 12 2-10 1.9 (-0.1) 22.3% -7.9 97 21.7 107 30.2 82 0.5 44 0.850 24
Appalachian State Sun Belt 7-5 8.0 (1.0) 21.6% -8.3 98 26.2 80 32.0 93 -2.5 123 0.976 124
Middle Tennessee C-USA 6-6 5.2 (-0.8) 20.7% -8.7 99 29.6 65 36.5 114 -1.7 117 0.950 94
North Texas C-USA 4-8 4.2 (0.2) 19.2% -9.4 100 20.2 111 31.2 89 1.7 11 0.975 121
Akron MAC 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 19.1% -9.4 101 18.9 115 28.1 70 -0.3 74 0.951 96
Kansas Big 12 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 18.4% -9.8 102 21.1 109 29.1 74 -1.8 119 0.858 28
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 4-8 4.4 (0.4) 18.0% -10.0 103 18.4 117 28.8 73 0.4 46 0.929 72
Florida Atlantic C-USA 3-9 4.3 (1.3) 17.2% -10.4 104 25.2 88 34.9 107 -0.8 95 0.908 67
San Jose State MWC 3-9 5.1 (2.1) 15.2% -11.5 105 22.1 104 30.5 86 -3.1 127 0.937 79
Ohio MAC 6-6 5.0 (-1.0) 14.9% -11.7 106 17.8 119 28.2 71 -1.2 110 0.960 111
South Florida AAC 4-8 3.2 (-0.8) 14.6% -11.8 107 19.0 113 32.3 94 1.5 17 0.923 70
UTEP C-USA 7-6 5.3 (-1.7) 14.3% -12.0 108 23.5 97 35.4 112 0.0 62 0.960 108
Old Dominion C-USA 6-6 6.3 (0.3) 13.1% -12.7 109 32.8 44 43.3 127 -2.2 121 0.961 112
Kent State MAC 2-9 3.8 (1.8) 11.6% -13.7 110 16.7 120 29.5 77 -0.9 99 0.943 89
Wyoming MWC 4-8 3.4 (-0.6) 11.1% -14.0 111 20.0 112 34.1 104 0.1 60 0.906 65
Connecticut AAC 2-10 2.7 (0.7) 11.1% -14.1 112 14.6 127 27.7 65 -0.9 100 0.945 90
New Mexico MWC 4-8 3.5 (-0.5) 9.8% -15.0 113 28.4 70 42.4 124 -1.0 105 0.950 93
Hawaii MWC 4-9 3.3 (-0.7) 9.8% -15.0 114 15.7 125 30.6 87 0.0 63 0.960 110
Tulane AAC 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 9.7% -15.0 115 16.2 123 28.0 69 -3.3 128 0.938 83
Tulsa AAC 2-10 2.0 (0.0) 8.8% -15.8 116 23.6 95 37.7 116 -1.7 118 0.939 85
Troy Sun Belt 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 8.7% -15.9 117 22.4 103 37.5 115 -0.7 93 0.942 87
Southern Miss C-USA 3-9 3.2 (0.2) 8.6% -15.9 118 19.0 114 34.8 105 -0.1 65 0.892 60
Florida International C-USA 4-8 3.5 (-0.5) 8.3% -16.2 119 15.0 126 30.3 85 -0.9 98 0.938 81
Army Ind 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 7.6% -16.9 120 25.2 89 40.9 121 -1.2 109 0.955 102
Idaho Sun Belt 1-10 2.4 (1.4) 7.0% -17.4 121 24.6 92 41.4 122 -0.6 88 0.979 127
UNLV MWC 2-11 2.6 (0.6) 6.8% -17.6 122 22.0 105 39.1 119 -0.4 83 0.958 106
Miami-OH MAC 2-10 3.8 (1.8) 5.8% -18.7 123 21.5 108 37.9 117 -2.4 122 0.954 99
Massachusetts MAC 3-9 4.4 (1.4) 4.6% -20.2 124 22.6 102 39.9 120 -2.9 124 0.970 120
SMU AAC 1-11 1.5 (0.5) 3.9% -21.2 125 16.6 121 34.9 106 -2.9 125 0.879 47
Georgia State Sun Belt 1-11 2.0 (1.0) 3.0% -22.8 126 22.8 100 45.9 128 0.3 52 0.953 98
New Mexico State Sun Belt 2-10 2.7 (0.7) 2.8% -23.3 127 23.0 99 43.3 126 -2.9 126 0.960 109
Eastern Michigan MAC 2-10 1.4 (-0.6) 1.7% -25.9 128 17.8 118 42.7 125 -0.9 102 0.934 76