Innovative Statistics

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2015 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays).

The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.)

Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Ohio State Big Ten 12-1 11.8 (-0.2) 98.3% 29.5 1 41.3 14 13.5 6 1.8 14 0.873 55
Alabama SEC 14-1 13.1 (-0.9) 98.1% 29.0 2 37.7 23 9.1 1 0.4 48 0.777 1
Ole Miss SEC 10-3 11.2 (1.2) 97.3% 27.0 3 43.1 8 17.4 12 1.4 21 0.826 13
Clemson ACC 14-1 13.0 (-1.0) 95.5% 24.0 4 41.9 10 17.2 11 -0.7 85 0.807 7
Florida State ACC 10-3 11.0 (1.0) 94.9% 23.2 5 38.0 21 15.0 7 0.2 58 0.881 59
Stanford Pac-12 12-2 11.0 (-1.0) 94.6% 22.8 6 44.5 5 24.5 45 2.8 3 0.851 29
Oklahoma Big 12 11-2 10.2 (-0.8) 94.5% 22.7 7 41.7 11 19.3 17 0.3 54 0.850 26
Notre Dame Ind 10-3 11.0 (1.0) 94.2% 22.4 8 44.1 6 21.2 29 -0.4 80 0.818 11
North Carolina ACC 11-3 11.7 (0.7) 91.8% 20.0 9 43.3 7 25.3 51 2.0 9 0.875 57
Michigan Big Ten 10-3 10.5 (0.5) 91.4% 19.7 10 35.2 34 16.2 10 0.8 39 0.870 51
LSU SEC 9-3 8.7 (-0.3) 91.3% 19.7 11 41.3 12 21.8 34 0.2 61 0.796 3
Tennessee SEC 9-4 9.4 (0.4) 91.1% 19.5 12 35.7 31 17.8 13 1.6 17 0.844 22
Baylor Big 12 10-3 10.7 (0.7) 91.1% 19.5 13 45.1 3 24.1 44 -1.5 110 0.878 58
Arkansas SEC 8-5 8.7 (0.7) 90.7% 19.2 14 46.6 2 28.0 67 0.5 42 0.803 5
TCU Big 12 11-2 10.5 (-0.5) 90.4% 19.0 15 40.8 15 21.7 32 -0.1 71 0.875 56
UCLA Pac-12 8-5 9.3 (1.3) 90.0% 18.6 16 42.4 9 22.6 37 -1.2 98 0.873 54
USC Pac-12 8-6 7.9 (-0.1) 87.3% 16.8 17 38.6 20 23.3 41 1.5 19 0.812 10
Georgia SEC 10-3 9.0 (-1.0) 87.2% 16.8 18 28.6 70 10.7 2 -1.1 97 0.857 37
Oregon Pac-12 9-4 8.8 (-0.2) 85.6% 15.9 19 46.7 1 30.4 83 -0.4 78 0.854 35
Michigan State Big Ten 12-2 9.7 (-2.3) 85.1% 15.6 20 35.7 30 20.6 26 0.4 46 0.832 18
Mississippi State SEC 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 84.2% 15.1 21 40.2 16 23.8 42 -1.3 104 0.811 9
Wisconsin Big Ten 10-3 9.7 (-0.3) 84.2% 15.1 22 27.0 76 12.4 4 0.5 44 0.893 64
Auburn SEC 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 83.3% 14.6 23 36.1 28 23.1 40 1.7 15 0.795 2
Texas A&M SEC 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 82.2% 14.1 24 31.9 51 18.8 14 1.0 32 0.809 8
Florida SEC 10-4 8.7 (-1.3) 81.6% 13.8 25 26.7 81 15.8 9 2.8 2 0.799 4
Louisville ACC 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 80.5% 13.2 26 33.4 42 20.0 21 -0.2 73 0.858 42
West Virginia Big 12 8-5 9.5 (1.5) 79.8% 12.9 27 34.4 38 19.9 20 -1.6 112 0.871 52
California Pac-12 8-5 8.6 (0.6) 77.9% 12.1 28 41.3 13 29.5 79 0.3 52 0.850 27
Navy AAC 11-2 10.4 (-0.6) 77.9% 12.1 29 38.9 19 27.8 65 1.0 31 0.923 82
Boise State MWC 9-4 9.6 (0.6) 77.2% 11.8 30 32.2 49 20.2 22 -0.2 76 0.953 122
Virginia Tech ACC 7-6 7.4 (0.4) 76.4% 11.4 31 30.8 57 19.7 18 0.4 49 0.868 47
Penn State Big Ten 7-6 6.4 (-0.6) 76.0% 11.3 32 28.4 71 19.0 15 1.9 11 0.865 46
Nebraska Big Ten 6-7 7.5 (1.5) 75.6% 11.1 33 35.4 33 25.0 48 0.8 36 0.885 62
Pittsburgh ACC 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 75.5% 11.1 34 33.9 40 22.4 35 -0.5 81 0.858 40
Utah Pac-12 10-3 7.0 (-3.0) 75.3% 11.0 35 28.8 67 19.8 19 2.0 8 0.858 41
Miami-FL ACC 8-5 6.7 (-1.3) 75.2% 11.0 36 34.9 37 25.8 54 1.8 12 0.845 23
Western Kentucky C-USA 12-2 11.3 (-0.7) 74.7% 10.8 37 40.1 17 29.8 80 0.5 43 0.943 107
Arizona State Pac-12 6-7 5.6 (-0.4) 73.4% 10.2 38 34.9 36 27.2 62 2.5 4 0.859 43
Oklahoma State Big 12 10-3 8.0 (-2.0) 72.5% 9.9 39 37.7 24 28.8 73 1.1 28 0.851 30
Washington Pac-12 7-6 7.6 (0.6) 72.0% 9.7 40 30.1 62 20.8 27 0.4 51 0.863 44
NC State ACC 7-6 7.5 (0.5) 71.8% 9.6 41 36.2 27 24.7 47 -1.8 116 0.858 39
Iowa Big Ten 12-2 9.8 (-2.2) 71.0% 9.3 42 30.1 63 21.0 28 0.2 60 0.889 63
Georgia Tech ACC 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 70.2% 9.0 43 33.1 44 25.4 53 1.4 22 0.806 6
BYU Ind 9-4 8.8 (-0.2) 69.3% 8.7 44 31.9 52 24.6 46 1.4 20 0.893 65
Louisiana Tech C-USA 9-4 9.9 (0.9) 68.3% 8.3 45 35.6 32 27.4 64 0.1 63 0.952 120
Minnesota Big Ten 6-7 6.2 (0.2) 67.6% 8.1 46 28.1 72 22.4 36 2.4 5 0.853 34
Memphis AAC 9-4 7.2 (-1.8) 67.5% 8.0 47 35.1 35 30.4 82 3.3 1 0.896 66
San Diego State MWC 11-3 10.5 (-0.5) 67.4% 8.0 48 28.6 69 22.6 38 2.0 10 0.951 115
Appalachian State Sun Belt 11-2 10.7 (-0.3) 67.1% 7.9 49 33.2 43 25.1 49 -0.2 75 0.946 110
Toledo MAC 10-2 8.7 (-1.3) 66.5% 7.7 50 30.4 60 21.8 33 -0.9 95 0.933 93
Bowling Green MAC 10-4 10.4 (0.4) 66.0% 7.5 51 39.4 18 32.1 93 0.2 57 0.931 89
Georgia Southern Sun Belt 9-4 8.9 (-0.1) 65.3% 7.3 52 32.8 46 26.5 57 1.0 30 0.935 94
Houston AAC 13-1 9.7 (-3.3) 62.2% 6.2 53 33.6 41 28.4 69 1.0 29 0.918 78
Temple AAC 10-4 8.6 (-1.4) 61.5% 6.0 54 26.4 84 20.6 25 0.2 62 0.920 80
Cincinnati AAC 7-6 8.1 (1.1) 59.5% 5.3 55 34.4 39 28.2 68 -0.8 92 0.932 90
Western Michigan MAC 8-5 7.3 (-0.7) 58.3% 4.9 56 36.7 26 32.2 95 0.4 47 0.903 68
Boston College ACC 3-9 6.0 (3.0) 57.8% 4.7 57 18.0 119 12.5 5 -0.8 90 0.849 25
Air Force MWC 8-6 9.0 (1.0) 57.6% 4.7 58 32.6 47 29.2 74 1.3 23 0.927 87
Arizona Pac-12 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 57.6% 4.7 59 38.0 22 31.6 87 -1.7 114 0.883 60
Texas Tech Big 12 7-6 6.7 (-0.3) 57.1% 4.5 60 44.8 4 40.3 121 0.0 67 0.838 19
Washington State Pac-12 9-4 7.6 (-1.4) 56.1% 4.2 61 35.8 29 29.4 77 -2.2 122 0.872 53
Texas Big 12 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 54.5% 3.7 62 30.7 59 27.0 60 0.0 68 0.831 15
South Florida AAC 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 54.3% 3.6 63 30.1 61 26.8 59 0.3 55 0.911 72
Marshall C-USA 10-3 9.0 (-1.0) 54.1% 3.5 64 25.4 91 20.3 24 -1.5 111 0.972 128
Missouri SEC 5-7 4.6 (-0.4) 53.7% 3.4 65 16.7 123 12.4 3 -0.9 96 0.864 45
Duke ACC 8-5 6.1 (-1.9) 53.6% 3.4 66 27.0 77 21.5 31 -2.0 119 0.907 71
South Carolina SEC 3-9 4.1 (1.1) 53.6% 3.4 67 31.3 54 28.6 72 0.8 37 0.820 12
Illinois Big Ten 5-7 5.2 (0.2) 51.5% 2.7 68 22.7 104 20.2 23 0.2 59 0.854 36
Kansas State Big 12 6-7 4.0 (-2.0) 51.3% 2.6 69 32.2 50 30.8 84 1.2 27 0.852 32
Southern Miss C-USA 9-5 9.3 (0.3) 47.5% 1.4 70 31.3 53 31.1 86 1.2 26 0.936 99
Virginia ACC 4-8 4.2 (0.2) 47.4% 1.4 71 33.0 45 30.8 85 -0.8 89 0.830 14
Colorado State MWC 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 44.7% 0.5 72 29.4 65 30.2 81 1.3 24 0.952 116
Arkansas State Sun Belt 9-4 8.3 (-0.7) 44.5% 0.5 73 30.9 56 28.4 70 -2.0 120 0.942 106
Indiana Big Ten 6-7 6.7 (0.7) 44.3% 0.4 74 37.5 25 35.9 109 -1.2 99 0.869 49
Northwestern Big Ten 10-3 7.0 (-3.0) 43.9% 0.2 75 16.8 122 15.0 8 -1.5 109 0.851 28
Utah State MWC 6-7 7.3 (1.3) 42.8% -0.1 76 24.1 100 22.9 39 -1.4 107 0.926 86
Iowa State Big 12 3-9 5.3 (2.3) 42.3% -0.3 77 31.2 55 33.7 104 2.2 6 0.852 31
Kentucky SEC 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 42.2% -0.3 78 26.8 79 27.2 63 0.1 66 0.868 48
Ohio MAC 8-5 7.2 (-0.8) 41.7% -0.5 79 24.5 94 26.6 58 1.7 16 0.950 114
East Carolina AAC 5-7 6.2 (1.2) 41.6% -0.5 80 28.6 68 27.9 66 -1.2 101 0.919 79
Akron MAC 8-5 7.6 (-0.4) 40.7% -0.8 81 24.8 93 25.9 55 0.3 53 0.936 97
Northern Illinois MAC 8-6 7.7 (-0.3) 40.2% -0.9 82 26.1 86 25.4 52 -1.7 115 0.914 75
Maryland Big Ten 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 38.3% -1.6 83 26.1 87 26.5 56 -1.2 102 0.831 16
Vanderbilt SEC 4-8 4.1 (0.1) 38.2% -1.6 84 17.8 120 19.3 16 -0.1 70 0.842 20
Central Michigan MAC 7-6 7.2 (0.2) 33.9% -3.1 85 26.4 83 27.2 61 -2.3 124 0.935 95
Syracuse ACC 4-8 3.6 (-0.4) 31.6% -3.9 86 30.0 64 33.2 101 -0.7 86 0.846 24
Colorado Pac-12 4-9 4.5 (0.5) 31.4% -4.0 87 25.8 89 28.5 71 -1.3 103 0.870 50
Wake Forest ACC 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 30.1% -4.5 88 19.8 112 25.2 50 0.9 33 0.831 17
San Jose State MWC 6-7 5.9 (-0.1) 30.0% -4.5 89 26.8 80 32.0 91 0.8 38 0.938 101
Middle Tennessee C-USA 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 29.8% -4.6 90 27.7 74 32.1 94 -0.1 69 0.917 77
Connecticut AAC 6-7 6.4 (0.4) 25.4% -6.3 91 18.1 118 23.9 43 -0.5 82 0.933 91
Georgia State Sun Belt 6-7 7.9 (1.9) 24.4% -6.7 92 28.0 73 31.9 90 -2.7 127 0.953 121
Troy Sun Belt 4-8 5.4 (1.4) 23.6% -7.0 93 24.5 95 31.9 89 0.5 45 0.925 85
Nevada MWC 7-6 5.9 (-1.1) 23.4% -7.1 94 26.9 78 32.6 98 -1.3 106 0.955 123
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 4-8 4.6 (0.6) 23.4% -7.1 95 24.2 98 32.1 92 0.8 35 0.962 126
Purdue Big Ten 2-10 2.5 (0.5) 22.7% -7.4 96 26.6 82 33.5 103 -0.5 83 0.885 61
Tulsa AAC 6-7 4.8 (-1.2) 20.1% -8.5 97 32.4 48 41.2 124 0.4 50 0.915 76
New Mexico MWC 7-6 4.9 (-2.1) 19.8% -8.7 98 24.9 92 34.8 106 1.3 25 0.949 112
Massachusetts MAC 3-9 5.1 (2.1) 18.0% -9.5 99 22.1 106 29.3 76 -2.3 125 0.933 92
Florida Atlantic C-USA 3-9 4.7 (1.7) 17.4% -9.8 100 18.8 115 29.3 75 0.7 40 0.945 109
Rutgers Big Ten 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 16.8% -10.1 101 29.3 66 37.1 112 -2.3 123 0.852 33
Oregon State Pac-12 2-10 2.6 (0.6) 16.8% -10.1 102 25.9 88 35.3 108 -0.8 88 0.842 21
Buffalo MAC 5-7 4.9 (-0.1) 16.4% -10.3 103 24.1 101 32.2 96 -2.2 121 0.958 124
South Alabama Sun Belt 5-7 5.1 (0.1) 16.2% -10.4 104 24.3 97 33.4 102 -1.3 105 0.936 98
Kent State MAC 3-9 3.6 (0.6) 13.5% -11.9 105 10.6 128 21.3 30 -1.2 100 0.946 111
Idaho Sun Belt 4-8 3.2 (-0.8) 13.0% -12.2 106 30.7 58 44.4 127 1.6 18 0.930 88
Fresno State MWC 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 12.4% -12.6 107 19.6 113 32.8 99 0.6 41 0.907 70
Miami-OH MAC 3-9 3.2 (0.2) 11.0% -13.5 108 16.8 121 29.5 78 -0.8 91 0.940 104
Tulane AAC 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 10.3% -14.0 109 20.3 109 32.5 97 -1.8 117 0.938 100
Rice C-USA 5-7 5.0 (0.0) 9.4% -14.6 110 24.0 102 37.9 116 -0.7 87 0.939 102
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 2-11 2.8 (0.8) 9.3% -14.7 111 18.4 117 32.9 100 -0.2 74 0.914 74
Old Dominion C-USA 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 9.2% -14.8 112 22.5 105 37.5 114 0.2 56 0.952 119
Central Florida AAC 0-12 1.0 (1.0) 8.3% -15.5 113 16.3 125 33.7 105 1.8 13 0.925 84
Texas State Sun Belt 3-9 3.4 (0.4) 8.3% -15.5 114 26.3 85 40.5 122 -1.4 108 0.935 96
Ball State MAC 3-9 2.4 (-0.6) 8.3% -15.5 115 21.9 107 37.3 113 -0.1 72 0.939 103
UNLV MWC 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 7.5% -16.2 116 24.2 99 39.9 120 -0.5 84 0.913 73
Hawaii MWC 3-10 3.5 (0.5) 7.4% -16.3 117 16.6 124 35.1 107 2.2 7 0.906 69
Florida International C-USA 5-7 4.1 (-0.9) 7.1% -16.6 118 21.7 108 36.5 110 -1.9 118 0.960 125
Wyoming MWC 2-10 2.1 (0.1) 7.0% -16.7 119 22.9 103 39.7 119 0.1 64 0.940 105
SMU AAC 2-10 2.8 (0.8) 6.2% -17.5 120 27.3 75 42.3 126 -2.6 126 0.896 67
UTSA C-USA 3-9 4.8 (1.8) 6.0% -17.7 121 19.3 114 36.6 111 -0.3 77 0.952 118
New Mexico State Sun Belt 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 5.2% -18.6 122 24.5 96 42.2 125 -0.9 93 0.923 81
UTEP C-USA 5-7 2.7 (-2.3) 4.5% -19.5 123 18.7 116 37.8 115 -0.4 79 0.950 113
Eastern Michigan MAC 1-11 2.1 (1.1) 4.3% -19.7 124 25.6 90 45.5 128 0.1 65 0.944 108
Kansas Big 12 0-12 0.2 (0.2) 3.3% -21.3 125 20.2 111 40.6 123 -0.9 94 0.857 38
Charlotte C-USA 2-10 2.6 (0.6) 3.1% -21.7 126 11.9 127 31.9 88 -1.7 113 0.970 127
Army Ind 2-10 3.8 (1.8) 3.1% -21.7 127 20.3 110 39.0 117 -3.0 128 0.952 117
North Texas C-USA 1-11 1.0 (0.0) 1.7% -25.0 128 13.3 126 39.2 118 0.8 34 0.924 83