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2016 NCAA FOOTBALL S&P+ RATINGS

The S&P+ Ratings are a college football ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of all 800+ of a season's FBS college football games (and 140,000+ plays). The components for S&P+ reflect opponent-adjusted components of four of what Bill Connelly has deemed the Five Factors of college football: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, and finishing drives. (A fifth factor, turnovers, is informed marginally by sack rates, the only quality-based statistic that has a consistent relationship with turnover margins.) Here are the components of the ratings shared below:

  • Second-Order Wins (2ndO Wins): Defined here and discussed in further detail here and here, second-order wins compare the advanced statistical components of a given game, and the single-game win expectancy they create, to the actual results of the game. This projected win total is a cousin of the Pythagorean record, a concept common in many sports. They are presented below, with the difference between a team's wins and second-order wins in parentheses.
  • S&P+ rating: Using the five-factors concept above, the S&P+ ratings take into account efficiency (Success Rates), explosiveness (IsoPPP), and factors related to field position and finishing drives. It is now presented in two forms: the first is a percentile, and the second is an adjusted scoring margin specific for this specific season's scoring curve.
  • Off. S&P+ rating: A team's offense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average.
  • Def. S&P+ rating: A team's defense-specific S&P+ rating, presented in the form of an adjusted scoring average (and since this is defense, the lower the average, the better).
  • Special Teams S&P+ rating: This is an initial attempt to measure play-for-play special teams efficiency, weighted for overall importance. (Note: special teams ratings not available for 2005.)
  • Strength of Schedule rating (SOS): S&P+ strength of schedule is determined by projecting the win percentage an average top-five team could expect against a given team's schedule. A lower number, therefore, means a higher ranking.

Use the menu above for pages that give more details on offensive and defensive S&P+, or our other college football ratings, the drive-based FEI.

Team Conf. Rec. 2ndO Wins
(Diff)
S&P+
(Pctile)
S&P+
(Rating)
Rk Off. S&P+ Rk Def. S&P+ Rk ST S&P+ Rk SOS Rk
Alabama SEC 14-1 13.8 (-0.2) 99.1% 31.7 1 40.0 14 8.6 1 0.4 48 0.787 1
Clemson ACC 14-1 12.8 (-1.2) 98.3% 28.7 2 43.5 3 14.1 6 -0.7 85 0.820 9
Washington Pac-12 12-2 11.9 (-0.1) 97.6% 26.7 3 40.2 12 13.9 4 0.4 51 0.874 49
Oklahoma Big 12 11-2 11.0 (0.0) 97.3% 26.1 4 48.7 1 22.9 31 0.3 54 0.864 40
LSU SEC 8-4 9.5 (1.5) 96.9% 25.3 5 34.2 41 9.0 2 0.2 61 0.816 5
Michigan Big Ten 10-3 10.4 (0.4) 96.3% 24.4 6 34.8 35 11.1 3 0.7 39 0.863 37
Florida State ACC 10-3 10.6 (0.6) 96.1% 24.0 7 42.6 5 18.8 17 0.2 58 0.806 3
USC Pac-12 10-3 10.0 (0.0) 95.8% 23.6 8 39.2 19 17.1 9 1.5 19 0.819 8
Louisville ACC 9-4 9.9 (0.9) 95.2% 22.9 9 40.8 8 17.7 15 -0.2 73 0.863 38
Ohio State Big Ten 11-2 9.2 (-1.8) 94.8% 22.4 10 35.6 32 15.0 8 1.7 14 0.816 7
Penn State Big Ten 11-3 10.5 (-0.5) 91.3% 19.0 11 38.0 23 20.9 25 1.9 11 0.839 16
Miami-FL ACC 9-4 9.3 (0.3) 90.8% 18.6 12 34.1 42 17.3 11 1.8 12 0.861 30
Oklahoma State Big 12 10-3 9.2 (-0.8) 87.5% 16.4 13 42.4 7 27.0 51 1.0 28 0.879 55
Stanford Pac-12 10-3 8.5 (-1.5) 87.5% 16.4 14 31.2 53 17.5 12 2.7 3 0.854 21
Tennessee SEC 9-4 8.4 (-0.6) 87.4% 16.3 15 39.9 15 25.2 44 1.6 17 0.867 43
Wisconsin Big Ten 11-3 10.5 (-0.5) 87.0% 16.1 16 30.5 59 14.8 7 0.5 44 0.837 14
North Carolina ACC 8-5 8.2 (0.2) 86.6% 15.9 17 38.5 21 24.6 41 2.0 9 0.861 29
Notre Dame Ind 4-8 7.3 (3.3) 86.4% 15.7 18 39.4 18 23.2 34 -0.4 80 0.862 31
Western Kentucky C-USA 11-3 11.5 (0.5) 85.9% 15.5 19 40.7 9 25.8 46 0.5 43 0.931 79
Florida SEC 9-4 7.9 (-1.1) 85.7% 15.4 20 26.6 84 14.0 5 2.8 2 0.837 13
Auburn SEC 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 85.7% 15.3 21 32.1 49 18.4 16 1.7 15 0.797 2
Virginia Tech ACC 10-4 9.5 (-0.5) 85.5% 15.2 22 34.5 39 19.6 21 0.4 49 0.858 25
Pittsburgh ACC 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 81.4% 13.1 23 43.0 4 29.4 75 -0.4 81 0.846 19
Minnesota Big Ten 9-4 9.1 (0.1) 80.2% 12.6 24 27.8 76 17.5 13 2.3 5 0.915 69
Ole Miss SEC 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 79.7% 12.4 25 38.9 20 27.9 62 1.3 21 0.812 4
Toledo MAC 9-4 10.8 (1.8) 79.5% 12.3 26 40.6 10 27.4 55 -0.9 95 0.953 111
Texas A&M SEC 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 78.9% 12.0 27 37.2 26 26.1 47 1.0 32 0.841 17
Temple AAC 10-4 10.5 (0.5) 78.7% 11.9 28 31.5 52 19.8 22 0.2 62 0.944 100
Western Michigan MAC 13-1 11.6 (-1.4) 77.8% 11.5 29 40.0 13 28.9 70 0.4 47 0.952 109
Boise State MWC 10-3 10.2 (0.2) 77.7% 11.5 30 36.7 28 25.0 42 -0.2 76 0.952 108
San Diego State MWC 11-3 10.3 (-0.7) 77.5% 11.4 31 32.0 50 22.5 29 1.9 10 0.970 126
Baylor Big 12 7-6 7.9 (0.9) 77.2% 11.3 32 37.0 27 24.2 40 -1.5 110 0.883 59
West Virginia Big 12 10-3 8.2 (-1.8) 77.1% 11.3 33 35.7 31 22.8 30 -1.6 112 0.862 32
TCU Big 12 6-7 7.8 (1.8) 76.4% 11.0 34 34.5 38 23.4 36 -0.1 71 0.876 51
Utah Pac-12 9-4 7.4 (-1.6) 76.3% 10.9 35 32.5 46 23.6 38 2.0 8 0.885 60
Texas Big 12 5-7 7.2 (2.2) 75.6% 10.6 36 37.4 25 26.8 50 0.0 68 0.863 34
Iowa Big Ten 8-5 8.2 (0.2) 74.6% 10.3 37 29.0 68 18.9 18 0.2 60 0.872 47
Nebraska Big Ten 9-4 7.7 (-1.3) 74.6% 10.3 38 37.7 24 28.3 65 0.8 36 0.888 63
Houston AAC 9-4 8.5 (-0.5) 74.2% 10.1 39 30.8 56 21.7 27 1.0 29 0.896 64
South Florida AAC 11-2 9.2 (-1.8) 73.5% 9.8 40 44.4 2 34.9 99 0.3 55 0.927 77
NC State ACC 7-6 8.3 (1.3) 72.3% 9.4 41 30.5 58 19.3 19 -1.8 116 0.833 12
Georgia SEC 8-5 8.0 (0.0) 72.2% 9.3 42 28.0 74 17.6 14 -1.1 97 0.887 62
Appalachian State Sun Belt 10-3 9.4 (-0.6) 71.9% 9.2 43 30.0 61 20.5 23 -0.2 75 0.934 83
UCLA Pac-12 4-8 6.3 (2.3) 71.5% 9.1 44 27.5 79 17.3 10 -1.1 98 0.886 61
Kansas State Big 12 9-4 7.4 (-1.6) 69.2% 8.2 45 34.2 40 27.2 52 1.2 27 0.862 33
BYU Ind 9-4 8.9 (-0.1) 68.5% 8.0 46 29.6 63 23.1 33 1.4 20 0.919 72
Arkansas SEC 7-6 6.0 (-1.0) 68.1% 7.9 47 36.2 29 28.9 71 0.5 42 0.824 10
Georgia Tech ACC 9-4 6.8 (-2.2) 67.8% 7.8 48 35.0 34 28.5 69 1.3 22 0.868 44
Memphis AAC 8-5 7.7 (-0.3) 67.7% 7.7 49 33.8 43 29.3 74 3.2 1 0.916 70
Tulsa AAC 10-3 10.1 (0.1) 66.8% 7.4 50 34.6 36 27.6 57 0.4 50 0.937 86
Michigan State Big Ten 3-9 4.9 (1.9) 66.7% 7.4 51 31.0 55 24.1 39 0.4 46 0.850 20
Navy AAC 9-5 7.7 (-1.3) 65.2% 6.8 52 39.8 17 33.9 97 1.0 31 0.924 76
Colorado Pac-12 10-4 9.0 (-1.0) 63.7% 6.3 53 29.3 65 21.7 28 -1.3 103 0.838 15
Washington State Pac-12 8-5 7.8 (-0.2) 63.2% 6.2 54 36.2 30 27.8 60 -2.2 122 0.882 57
Oregon Pac-12 4-8 5.2 (1.2) 63.0% 6.1 55 42.5 6 36.1 106 -0.4 78 0.860 28
Mississippi State SEC 6-7 6.6 (0.6) 61.0% 5.4 56 34.5 37 27.8 61 -1.3 104 0.857 23
Indiana Big Ten 6-7 7.6 (1.6) 58.2% 4.6 57 25.1 91 19.4 20 -1.1 99 0.876 53
Air Force MWC 10-3 9.3 (-0.7) 57.8% 4.4 58 33.0 45 29.9 80 1.3 23 0.967 123
Texas Tech Big 12 5-7 5.3 (0.3) 55.5% 3.7 59 40.6 11 36.9 114 0.0 67 0.872 48
Louisiana Tech C-USA 9-5 9.4 (0.4) 53.5% 3.1 60 39.8 16 36.9 112 0.1 63 0.940 96
Northwestern Big Ten 7-6 6.6 (-0.4) 53.0% 2.9 61 27.9 75 23.5 37 -1.5 109 0.875 50
California Pac-12 5-7 5.4 (0.4) 51.5% 2.4 62 38.4 22 36.3 107 0.3 52 0.843 18
Troy Sun Belt 10-3 8.7 (-1.3) 47.3% 1.1 63 25.7 87 25.1 43 0.4 45 0.937 88
Colorado State MWC 7-6 7.5 (0.5) 46.2% 0.8 64 33.5 44 34.0 98 1.3 24 0.941 97
Southern Miss C-USA 7-6 7.3 (0.3) 46.1% 0.7 65 29.1 67 29.6 78 1.2 26 0.949 103
Iowa State Big 12 3-9 4.2 (1.2) 45.9% 0.7 66 27.0 81 28.5 67 2.2 6 0.866 42
Wake Forest ACC 7-6 5.3 (-1.7) 42.0% -0.6 67 21.5 114 22.9 32 0.9 33 0.865 41
Maryland Big Ten 6-7 6.2 (0.2) 42.0% -0.6 68 28.7 70 28.1 63 -1.2 102 0.876 52
Old Dominion C-USA 10-3 9.5 (-0.5) 41.6% -0.7 69 29.9 62 30.9 82 0.2 56 0.956 117
Missouri SEC 4-8 4.8 (0.8) 40.6% -1.0 70 31.2 54 31.3 85 -0.9 96 0.883 58
Vanderbilt SEC 6-7 5.0 (-1.0) 40.2% -1.2 71 25.3 89 26.3 48 -0.1 70 0.881 56
Arkansas State Sun Belt 8-5 9.4 (1.4) 40.1% -1.2 72 21.9 113 21.1 26 -2.0 120 0.955 114
Boston College ACC 7-6 5.7 (-1.3) 39.0% -1.6 73 20.1 117 20.8 24 -0.8 90 0.859 27
Middle Tennessee C-USA 8-5 7.9 (-0.1) 38.1% -1.9 74 35.0 33 36.8 111 -0.1 69 0.967 124
Ohio MAC 8-6 7.6 (-0.4) 37.2% -2.1 75 22.0 112 25.8 45 1.7 16 0.948 102
Central Florida AAC 6-7 5.8 (-0.2) 36.9% -2.2 76 19.3 120 23.3 35 1.8 13 0.917 71
Northern Illinois MAC 5-7 5.7 (0.7) 36.3% -2.4 77 32.0 51 32.7 91 -1.7 115 0.940 95
Kentucky SEC 7-6 6.0 (-1.0) 35.9% -2.6 78 30.8 57 33.4 93 0.1 66 0.857 24
Syracuse ACC 4-8 3.6 (-0.4) 35.5% -2.7 79 29.2 66 31.2 84 -0.7 86 0.816 6
Duke ACC 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 35.2% -2.8 80 26.8 82 27.6 58 -2.0 119 0.856 22
Arizona State Pac-12 5-7 3.1 (-1.9) 34.6% -3.0 81 32.2 48 37.6 117 2.5 4 0.871 46
Cincinnati AAC 4-8 4.4 (0.4) 32.9% -3.6 82 24.5 99 27.3 53 -0.8 92 0.929 78
Virginia ACC 2-10 4.0 (2.0) 32.3% -3.8 83 25.4 88 28.5 68 -0.7 89 0.869 45
Georgia Southern Sun Belt 5-7 4.4 (-0.6) 32.2% -3.9 84 27.8 77 32.6 90 1.0 30 0.942 99
South Carolina SEC 6-7 4.8 (-1.2) 31.7% -4.0 85 22.7 105 27.5 56 0.8 37 0.878 54
Utah State MWC 3-9 5.1 (2.1) 30.7% -4.4 86 24.7 97 27.7 59 -1.4 107 0.915 68
Arizona Pac-12 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 30.5% -4.5 87 29.6 64 32.4 88 -1.6 114 0.858 26
Oregon State Pac-12 4-8 4.5 (0.5) 30.0% -4.6 88 26.1 86 30.0 81 -0.7 88 0.863 35
New Mexico MWC 9-4 7.3 (-1.7) 28.7% -5.1 89 32.2 47 38.6 120 1.3 25 0.971 127
Akron MAC 5-7 5.5 (0.5) 27.3% -5.6 90 22.3 109 28.2 64 0.3 53 0.934 84
Central Michigan MAC 6-7 5.3 (-0.7) 26.1% -6.1 91 27.6 78 31.4 86 -2.3 124 0.936 85
Miami-OH MAC 6-7 7.7 (1.7) 26.1% -6.1 92 23.8 101 29.0 72 -0.8 91 0.952 107
Bowling Green MAC 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 24.9% -6.6 93 25.0 93 31.8 87 0.2 57 0.932 82
Illinois Big Ten 3-9 3.0 (0.0) 24.6% -6.7 94 22.7 106 29.5 77 0.2 59 0.864 39
Wyoming MWC 8-6 6.6 (-1.4) 24.0% -6.9 95 30.4 60 37.5 116 0.1 64 0.932 81
Ball State MAC 4-8 5.6 (1.6) 23.8% -7.0 96 28.2 73 35.1 102 -0.1 72 0.956 115
Eastern Michigan MAC 7-6 6.2 (-0.8) 20.9% -8.2 97 28.3 72 36.6 108 0.1 65 0.956 116
Idaho Sun Belt 9-4 6.4 (-2.6) 20.0% -8.6 98 24.7 96 34.9 100 1.5 18 0.937 89
UL-Lafayette Sun Belt 6-7 5.7 (-0.3) 19.7% -8.7 99 19.8 118 29.4 76 0.8 35 0.956 118
East Carolina AAC 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 19.1% -9.0 100 27.2 80 35.1 101 -1.1 101 0.920 73
South Alabama Sun Belt 6-7 6.6 (0.6) 18.3% -9.4 101 25.2 90 33.3 92 -1.3 105 0.962 121
Army Ind 8-5 8.5 (0.5) 17.2% -9.9 102 22.2 110 29.2 73 -2.9 128 0.949 104
Hawaii MWC 7-7 6.7 (-0.3) 16.8% -10.1 103 28.6 71 40.8 124 2.2 7 0.931 80
SMU AAC 5-7 4.7 (-0.3) 15.5% -10.8 104 24.3 100 32.6 89 -2.5 126 0.910 67
Purdue Big Ten 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 15.1% -11.0 105 25.1 92 35.6 103 -0.5 83 0.900 65
UTSA C-USA 6-7 5.9 (-0.1) 14.7% -11.2 106 22.7 107 33.6 95 -0.3 77 0.963 122
Connecticut AAC 3-9 2.8 (-0.2) 14.0% -11.6 107 19.8 119 30.9 83 -0.5 82 0.940 94
Kent State MAC 3-9 3.9 (0.9) 13.4% -12.0 108 16.6 126 27.4 54 -1.1 100 0.904 66
Georgia State Sun Belt 3-9 4.8 (1.8) 13.2% -12.1 109 17.3 123 26.7 49 -2.7 127 0.950 105
Marshall C-USA 3-9 3.3 (0.3) 12.1% -12.7 110 24.6 98 35.8 104 -1.5 111 0.923 74
Nevada MWC 5-7 4.8 (-0.2) 11.7% -13.0 111 26.2 85 37.9 118 -1.3 106 0.959 120
San Jose State MWC 4-8 3.2 (-0.8) 10.7% -13.6 112 22.4 108 36.7 110 0.7 38 0.938 91
Florida Atlantic C-USA 3-9 3.7 (0.7) 10.1% -14.1 113 28.7 69 43.5 128 0.7 40 0.939 93
UNLV MWC 4-8 4.7 (0.7) 9.8% -14.3 114 26.7 83 40.4 122 -0.5 84 0.953 110
Tulane AAC 4-8 4.0 (0.0) 9.4% -14.6 115 15.7 128 28.4 66 -1.8 117 0.939 92
North Texas C-USA 5-8 5.1 (0.1) 9.4% -14.6 116 22.0 111 37.5 115 0.8 34 0.950 106
Rutgers Big Ten 2-10 2.1 (0.1) 9.0% -14.9 117 17.3 124 29.9 79 -2.2 123 0.829 11
Massachusetts Ind 2-10 3.6 (1.6) 8.5% -15.3 118 23.7 102 36.7 109 -2.3 125 0.945 101
Kansas Big 12 2-10 1.9 (-0.1) 7.7% -15.9 119 21.0 115 36.0 105 -0.8 94 0.863 36
UTEP C-USA 4-8 4.3 (0.3) 7.5% -16.1 120 25.0 95 40.6 123 -0.4 79 0.971 128
Rice C-USA 3-9 3.8 (0.8) 7.1% -16.5 121 22.8 104 38.6 119 -0.7 87 0.937 87
Fresno State MWC 1-11 2.1 (1.1) 6.6% -16.9 122 16.4 127 33.9 96 0.5 41 0.937 90
New Mexico State Sun Belt 3-9 3.1 (0.1) 6.4% -17.2 123 23.2 103 39.5 121 -0.8 93 0.957 119
Buffalo MAC 2-10 2.4 (0.4) 4.9% -18.8 124 16.8 125 33.5 94 -2.1 121 0.968 125
Florida International C-USA 4-8 3.2 (-0.8) 4.8% -19.0 125 25.0 94 42.2 126 -1.8 118 0.955 113
Charlotte C-USA 4-8 3.4 (-0.6) 3.4% -20.9 126 17.6 122 36.9 113 -1.6 113 0.942 98
UL-Monroe Sun Belt 4-8 3.8 (-0.2) 3.2% -21.3 127 20.4 116 41.5 125 -0.2 74 0.923 75
Texas State Sun Belt 2-10 2.1 (0.1) 1.4% -25.5 128 18.4 121 42.5 127 -1.4 108 0.954 112