DVOA Database


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Revised as of 01/18/21, through Week 19.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

Kansas City's rating does not include Week 17 and assumes Patrick Mahomes will start in the AFC Championship Game.

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win
GB 100.0% 60.4% 31.7%
BUF 100.0% 48.6% 25.2%
KC 100.0% 51.4% 22.5%
TB 100.0% 39.6% 20.5%


Special Super Bowl Matchups


This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.


Name Teams Chance
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 31.1%
Mini TV Markets Bowl GB vs BUF 29.4%
The GOAT vs. The Kid TB vs KC 20.3%
Brady vs. Buffalo Again TB vs BUF 19.2%