Revised as of 09/15/20, through Week 1.
Compiled by Mike Harris
The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.
NFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0-1 | 6.0% | 8.3 | 4.9% | 7.5% | 11.4% | 16.6% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 40.4% | 11.4% | 51.8% | -4.1% |
| PHI | 0-1 | 1.9% | 7.6 | 3.4% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 10.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 26.3% | 12.6% | 38.8% | -12.9% |
| WAS | 1-0 | -15.3% | 7.0 | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.0% | 8.7% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 18.6% | 9.8% | 28.4% | 14.3% |
| NYG | 0-1 | -9.5% | 6.6 | 1.3% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 6.9% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 14.8% | 8.8% | 23.5% | -8.5% |
NFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 1-0 | -0.7% | 8.4 | 5.9% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 33.7% | 16.4% | 50.1% | 10.3% |
| CHI | 1-0 | -2.8% | 8.3 | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 31.5% | 17.0% | 48.5% | 12.5% |
| DET | 0-1 | 1.1% | 7.6 | 2.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 19.3% | 15.9% | 35.2% | -10.3% |
| MIN | 0-1 | -0.2% | 7.2 | 2.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 15.5% | 14.2% | 29.7% | -8.3% |
NFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 1-0 | 22.2% | 10.6 | 28.1% | 18.5% | 12.3% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 66.4% | 17.6% | 84.0% | 6.0% |
| TB | 0-1 | 7.1% | 8.3 | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 11.3% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 17.1% | 28.5% | 45.6% | -7.6% |
| ATL | 0-1 | 2.9% | 7.4 | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 12.6% | 18.8% | 31.5% | -12.2% |
| CAR | 0-1 | -13.1% | 5.9 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 9.5% | 13.4% | -1.8% |
NFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1-0 | 9.7% | 9.7 | 15.3% | 12.0% | 7.0% | 3.5% | 14.2% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 37.8% | 32.8% | 70.6% | 15.0% |
| LAR | 1-0 | 3.9% | 8.9 | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 26.1% | 31.6% | 57.7% | 7.5% |
| ARI | 1-0 | 0.5% | 8.8 | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 24.1% | 30.8% | 54.9% | 10.8% |
| SF | 0-1 | 3.9% | 7.8 | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 24.3% | 36.3% | -10.7% |
AFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 1-0 | 3.0% | 8.8 | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 16.5% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 45.2% | 15.6% | 60.8% | 12.2% |
| BUF | 1-0 | -0.7% | 8.4 | 5.7% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 37.4% | 16.3% | 53.7% | 7.8% |
| NYJ | 0-1 | -14.0% | 6.3 | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 18.3% | -9.5% |
| MIA | 0-1 | -17.3% | 6.1 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 16.0% | -9.8% |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1-0 | 18.9% | 10.3 | 22.8% | 14.5% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 13.4% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 53.7% | 27.6% | 81.3% | 12.4% |
| PIT | 1-0 | 10.6% | 9.8 | 14.0% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 15.1% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 38.3% | 32.5% | 70.9% | 8.5% |
| CLE | 0-1 | -12.0% | 6.6 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 15.5% | 20.0% | -17.3% |
| CIN | 0-1 | -15.5% | 6.0 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 9.0% | 12.4% | -8.7% |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 1-0 | 0.9% | 8.7 | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 35.2% | 20.5% | 55.7% | 5.7% |
| IND | 0-1 | 4.3% | 8.1 | 3.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 24.4% | 20.0% | 44.4% | -15.6% |
| JAX | 1-0 | -7.1% | 7.9 | 3.3% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 22.8% | 18.1% | 40.9% | 13.7% |
| HOU | 0-1 | -2.3% | 7.3 | 1.8% | 3.4% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 17.7% | 14.2% | 31.9% | -7.8% |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1-0 | 18.8% | 10.3 | 21.9% | 17.2% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 56.9% | 24.3% | 81.2% | 1.9% |
| LAC | 1-0 | -2.2% | 8.4 | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 19.0% | 30.4% | 49.4% | 8.7% |
| LV | 1-0 | -3.3% | 8.2 | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 17.3% | 26.1% | 43.5% | 8.4% |
| DEN | 0-1 | -7.5% | 6.6 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 12.9% | 19.6% | -10.6% |
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win | 16-0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 43.8% | 28.1% | 16.5% | 0.3% |
| BAL | 37.2% | 22.5% | 12.8% | 0.2% |
| KC | 37.4% | 22.1% | 12.6% | 0.2% |
| SEA | 24.8% | 12.8% | 6.3% | 0.1% |
| PIT | 24.1% | 12.7% | 6.3% | 0.1% |
| LAR | 16.1% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| NE | 16.6% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| DAL | 15.5% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| ARI | 13.6% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| TB | 12.0% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| TEN | 14.7% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| BUF | 13.4% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| GB | 12.6% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| IND | 11.5% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| CHI | 11.2% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| PHI | 9.6% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| SF | 8.8% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| LAC | 10.3% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| DET | 8.5% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| LV | 9.1% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| ATL | 7.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| MIN | 6.5% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| JAX | 8.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| HOU | 6.4% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| NYG | 3.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| WAS | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| DEN | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| CLE | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| NYJ | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| CAR | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| CIN | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| MIA | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
ON THE CLOCK
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
| Team | Top Pick | Top 5 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| CAR | 11.0% | 40.7% |
| CIN | 10.9% | 40.4% |
| MIA | 10.7% | 39.4% |
| NYJ | 8.8% | 35.3% |
| CLE | 7.1% | 30.4% |
| NYG | 6.8% | 30.1% |
| DEN | 5.8% | 26.9% |
| WAS | 5.2% | 26.2% |
| MIN | 3.6% | 19.3% |
| HOU | 3.2% | 17.6% |
| DET | 3.1% | 17.4% |
| ATL | 2.6% | 16.4% |
| PHI | 2.3% | 14.8% |
| JAX | 2.0% | 13.7% |
| SF | 1.8% | 12.6% |
| IND | 1.7% | 11.8% |
| LV | 1.5% | 11.0% |
| DAL | 1.5% | 10.8% |
| CHI | 1.5% | 10.7% |
| TB | 1.5% | 10.1% |
| GB | 1.3% | 10.0% |
| LAC | 1.2% | 9.8% |
| BUF | 1.0% | 8.4% |
| TEN | 1.0% | 7.4% |
| ARI | 0.8% | 7.2% |
| NE | 0.7% | 6.3% |
| LAR | 0.7% | 5.7% |
| SEA | 0.3% | 2.9% |
| PIT | 0.3% | 2.9% |
| KC | 0.1% | 1.4% |
| BAL | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| NO | 0.1% | 1.2% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| David Simon Crossover Bowl | NO vs BAL | 6.2% |
| Willie Roaf Memories Bowl | NO vs KC | 6.1% |
| Frank Clark Reunion Special | SEA vs KC | 2.7% |
| Missouri Revenge Bowl | LAR vs KC | 1.8% |
| 1960 Double Dallas Showdown | DAL vs KC | 1.7% |
| Super Bowl XL Rematch | SEA vs PIT | 1.6% |
| Super Bowl XLIV Rematch | NO vs IND | 1.4% |
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 1.2% |
| Matt Nagy Reunion Special | CHI vs KC | 1.1% |
| Drew Brees Reunion Special | NO vs LAC | 1.1% |
| Super Bowl XLIX Rematch | SEA vs NE | 1.0% |
| Super Bowl XIV Rematch | LAR vs PIT | 0.9% |
| Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch | DAL vs PIT | 0.9% |
| Super Bowl LIV Rematch | SF vs KC | 0.9% |
| Andy Reid Reunion Special | PHI vs KC | 0.9% |
| Super Bowl XLVII Rematch | SF vs BAL | 0.9% |
| Jadaveon Clowney Reunion Special | SEA vs TEN | 0.8% |
| Gulf Coast Challenge | NO vs HOU | 0.8% |
| Super Bowl XLIII Rematch | ARI vs PIT | 0.7% |
| Super Bowl XLV Rematch | GB vs PIT | 0.7% |
| Battle of the Dynasties | DAL vs NE | 0.6% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 0.6% |
| Keystone Bowl | PHI vs PIT | 0.6% |
| Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch | LAR vs NE | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch | LAR vs TEN | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl XXXI Rematch | GB vs NE | 0.4% |
| Tom Brady Reunion Special | TB vs NE | 0.4% |
| Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch | DAL vs BUF | 0.4% |
| Matt LaFleur Reunion Special | GB vs TEN | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl V Rematch | DAL vs IND | 0.4% |
| Fight for L.A. | LAR vs LAC | 0.4% |
| Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch | PHI vs NE | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XX Rematch | CHI vs NE | 0.3% |
| Beltway Bowl | WAS vs BAL | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XXXV Rematch | NYG vs BAL | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl IX Rematch | MIN vs PIT | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XLI Rematch | CHI vs IND | 0.3% |
| DeForest Buckner Reunion Special | SF vs IND | 0.2% |
| Matt Patricia Reunion Special | DET vs NE | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl LI Rematch | ATL vs NE | 0.2% |
| Frank Reich Reunion Special | PHI vs IND | 0.2% |
| Randy Moss Memories Bowl | MIN vs NE | 0.2% |
| Chris Berman's Dream | SF vs BUF | 0.2% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special | SF vs NE | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl II Rematch | GB vs LV | 0.2% |
| Who Dey vs. Who Dat | NO vs CIN | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch | SEA vs DEN | 0.2% |
| Khalil Mack Reunion Special | CHI vs LV | 0.2% |
| Fifth Time's The Charm | MIN vs BUF | 0.2% |
| Texas Bowl | DAL vs HOU | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XV Rematch | PHI vs LV | 0.2% |
| Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch | NYG vs NE | 0.1% |
| Florida Bowl (North) | TB vs JAX | 0.1% |
| Pete Carroll Reunion Special | SEA vs NYJ | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXV Rematch | NYG vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXVI Rematch | WAS vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XII Rematch | DAL vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXII Rematch | GB vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch | CAR vs NE | 0.1% |
| Cam Newton Reunion Special | CAR vs NE | 0.1% |
| Return of the Rams | LAR vs CLE | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXIV Rematch | SF vs DEN | 0.1% |