2021 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS

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This table explained

Revised as of 11/22/21, through Week 11

DAVE ratings for Arizona, Baltimore, Dallas, Green Bay, Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Seattle are adjusted upwards to filter out past games with backup quarterbacks.

Carolina DAVE uses a projection for the offense with Cam Newton rather than the offensive DAVE that is mostly Sam Darnold.

New Orleans DAVE is reduced due to Jameis Winston injury.

NFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
DAL 7-3 18.4% 11.5 16.7% 17.6% 21.7% 30.1% 2.2% 3.5% 3.2% 86.0% 8.9% 94.9% -3.4%
PHI 5-6 8.0% 8.9 0.0% 0.3% 2.0% 9.4% 3.9% 11.7% 17.4% 11.8% 33.1% 44.9% 19.6%
WAS 4-6 -7.6% 6.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.8% 0.2% 1.3% 3.1% 2.0% 4.7% 6.7% 1.1%
NYG 3-7 -12.0% 5.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% -2.1%

 

NFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
GB 8-3 13.0% 11.9 18.3% 24.3% 24.4% 20.4% 3.9% 4.0% 2.7% 87.4% 10.6% 98.0% -0.7%
MIN 5-5 10.6% 9.1 0.2% 1.5% 3.4% 7.5% 10.5% 16.3% 15.6% 12.5% 42.4% 55.0% 6.6%
CHI 3-7 -11.9% 5.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% -0.7%
DET 0-9-1 -23.6% 2.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

NFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
TB 7-3 29.3% 12.2 20.3% 28.8% 26.6% 14.7% 1.8% 3.4% 2.2% 90.4% 7.5% 97.9% 0.8%
NO 5-5 8.7% 9.2 0.1% 1.6% 3.0% 2.9% 5.8% 14.8% 18.1% 7.7% 38.6% 46.3% -11.6%
CAR 5-6 3.2% 7.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 4.2% 1.9% 6.0% 7.9% -3.7%
ATL 4-6 -34.8% 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% -1.2%

 

NFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
ARI 9-2 20.0% 12.9 40.3% 22.7% 16.4% 10.1% 7.5% 1.8% 0.8% 89.4% 10.2% 99.6% 1.5%
LAR 7-3 14.5% 10.8 4.1% 3.0% 1.8% 0.9% 43.9% 18.2% 11.6% 9.7% 73.7% 83.4% -1.2%
SF 5-5 16.1% 9.6 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 19.5% 21.7% 17.7% 0.9% 58.9% 59.8% 9.7%
SEA 3-7 7.8% 7.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 2.4% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% -14.7%

 

AFC East

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
NE 7-4 24.4% 11.1 30.0% 16.0% 9.2% 4.9% 18.3% 10.1% 5.6% 60.1% 33.9% 94.0% 6.0%
BUF 6-4 16.9% 10.1 5.7% 9.7% 12.4% 12.1% 8.5% 12.4% 12.8% 39.9% 33.6% 73.5% -22.3%
MIA 4-7 -13.9% 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% 1.3% 1.4% -0.8%
NYJ 2-8 -28.2% 3.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%

 

AFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 7-3 7.9% 11.0 19.4% 17.4% 14.5% 11.4% 7.4% 7.6% 6.7% 62.6% 21.7% 84.4% 2.5%
CIN 6-4 -10.2% 8.8 1.8% 3.1% 3.5% 3.7% 5.9% 8.1% 9.3% 12.0% 23.3% 35.3% 11.3%
CLE 6-5 -0.2% 8.9 0.3% 1.5% 4.1% 9.3% 2.4% 5.9% 9.6% 15.2% 18.0% 33.1% 0.6%
PIT 5-4-1 -1.3% 8.6 1.1% 2.1% 3.1% 3.9% 4.5% 6.6% 9.2% 10.2% 20.3% 30.5% -18.4%

 

AFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
TEN 8-3 -2.5% 11.0 20.9% 19.5% 21.5% 26.2% 1.9% 2.4% 2.3% 88.1% 6.6% 94.7% -4.7%
IND 6-5 13.6% 9.5 2.1% 3.0% 3.1% 3.6% 22.0% 16.9% 14.4% 11.8% 53.3% 65.1% 25.6%
HOU 2-8 -22.5% 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%
JAX 2-8 -18.7% 4.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2%

 

AFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
KC 7-4 13.5% 11.0 10.3% 14.8% 14.8% 12.7% 13.4% 10.3% 8.3% 52.5% 32.0% 84.6% 11.7%
LAC 6-4 4.0% 10.1 8.1% 11.8% 11.5% 8.4% 11.1% 11.6% 10.0% 39.8% 32.7% 72.4% 11.7%
DEN 5-5 -6.2% 8.2 0.2% 0.9% 1.8% 2.9% 2.1% 4.2% 5.8% 5.8% 12.1% 18.0% -5.9%
LV 5-5 -7.9% 7.6 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.8% 2.5% 3.5% 5.1% 1.8% 11.0% 12.9% -17.1%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win
TB 49.4% 30.6% 19.4%
NE 48.9% 32.7% 17.0%
ARI 44.7% 24.0% 14.4%
DAL 32.6% 16.0% 8.7%
GB 29.1% 12.7% 6.2%
BUF 24.3% 13.2% 6.1%
KC 28.4% 14.0% 6.1%
BAL 27.7% 12.7% 4.7%
LAR 15.0% 6.2% 3.1%
IND 16.1% 7.5% 3.1%
TEN 22.3% 8.4% 2.5%
LAC 16.4% 6.5% 2.3%
SF 9.2% 3.7% 1.9%
MIN 7.6% 2.7% 1.3%
NO 5.5% 1.9% 0.9%
PHI 5.4% 1.7% 0.8%
CLE 4.9% 1.6% 0.5%
PIT 4.2% 1.4% 0.5%
CIN 3.5% 1.0% 0.2%
DEN 2.0% 0.6% 0.1%
LV 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

 

ON THE CLOCK

 

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
DET 62.0% 96.6%
NYJ 18.4% 86.3%
HOU 8.5% 70.6%
JAX 7.3% 70.2%
ATL 1.1% 58.6%
CHI 1.3% 38.5%
NYG 1.0% 35.6%
MIA 0.1% 21.2%
WAS 0.0% 9.5%
SEA 0.1% 7.3%
DEN 0.0% 1.5%
CAR 0.0% 1.4%
LV 0.0% 1.1%
PHI 0.0% 0.7%
PIT 0.0% 0.4%
MIN 0.0% 0.2%
NO 0.0% 0.1%
CIN 0.0% 0.1%

 

 

 

Special Super Bowl Matchups

 

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.

Name Teams Chance
Tom Brady Reunion Special TB vs NE 9.9%
Chandler Jones Reunion Special ARI vs NE 7.8%
Battle of the Dynasties DAL vs NE 5.2%
Super Bowl LV Rematch TB vs KC 4.3%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 4.2%
Gronk's Homecoming TB vs BUF 4.0%
Battle of the (Old) Bays TB vs BAL 3.8%
Texas Tech Reunion Special ARI vs KC 3.4%
Calais Campbell Reunion Special ARI vs BAL 3.2%
Hail Murray Rematch ARI vs BUF 3.2%
$10 Bowl TB vs TEN 2.7%
Dungy Bowl TB vs IND 2.3%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 2.2%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown DAL vs KC 2.2%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch LAR vs NE 2.1%
AT&M&T Bowl DAL vs BAL 2.0%
Ken Whisenhunt Classic ARI vs TEN 2.0%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 1.7%
DeMarco Murray Classic DAL vs TEN 1.4%
Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special SF vs NE 1.2%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 1.2%
Matt LaFleur Reunion Special GB vs TEN 1.0%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 0.9%
Randy Moss Classic MIN vs NE 0.9%
Robert Woods Reunion Special LAR vs BUF 0.8%
Marcus Peters Reunion Special LAR vs BAL 0.7%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowl LIV Rematch SF vs KC 0.5%
Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch LAR vs TEN 0.5%
Chris Berman's Dream SF vs BUF 0.5%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch SF vs BAL 0.5%
Bruce Arians Reunion Special TB vs PIT 0.5%
Sooner Bowl ARI vs CLE 0.4%
Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 0.4%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.4%
Fifth Time's The Charm MIN vs BUF 0.3%
Super Bowl XLIII Rematch ARI vs PIT 0.3%
DeForest Buckner Reunion Special SF vs IND 0.3%
Willie Roaf Classic NO vs KC 0.3%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.2%
David Simon Crossover Bowl NO vs BAL 0.2%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.2%
Frank Reich Reunion Special PHI vs IND 0.2%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 0.1%
Return of the Rams LAR vs CLE 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXVII Rematch TB vs LV 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 0.1%
Kevin Stefanski Reunion Special MIN vs CLE 0.1%
Zac Taylor Reunion Special LAR vs CIN 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXII Rematch GB vs DEN 0.1%
AAFC Memorial Bowl SF vs CLE 0.1%

 

 

Compiled by Mike Harris