Revised as of 09/14/21, through Week 1
Compiled by Mike Harris
Washington DAVE is reduced by 10% in Weeks 2-7 due to Ryan Fitzpatrick injury, with Fitzpatrick returning 20% of the time in Week 8 and 100% of the time in Week 10.
NFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 0-1 | 4.6% | 8.8 | 2.7% | 6.4% | 15.8% | 18.3% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 43.2% | 9.1% | 52.3% | -8.1% |
| PHI | 1-0 | -5.8% | 8.2 | 2.5% | 4.5% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 29.5% | 10.1% | 39.5% | 16.3% |
| NYG | 0-1 | -8.2% | 6.7 | 0.6% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 14.0% | 6.1% | 20.0% | -3.9% |
| WAS | 0-1 | -1.4% | 6.5 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 13.4% | 5.7% | 19.0% | -18.0% |
NFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 0-1 | 9.2% | 9.0 | 3.7% | 7.6% | 15.8% | 18.5% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 45.6% | 9.7% | 55.3% | -19.4% |
| MIN | 0-1 | 5.3% | 8.5 | 3.0% | 5.7% | 12.4% | 13.7% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 34.8% | 11.2% | 46.0% | -2.3% |
| CHI | 0-1 | -6.3% | 6.7 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 12.6% | 5.3% | 17.9% | -7.9% |
| DET | 0-1 | -12.0% | 5.8 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 7.0% | 3.1% | 10.1% | -6.9% |
NFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1-0 | 20.3% | 12.0 | 31.5% | 20.5% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 12.6% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 62.7% | 26.5% | 89.2% | 0.8% |
| NO | 1-0 | 9.8% | 10.5 | 13.2% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 1.8% | 17.7% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 30.7% | 40.9% | 71.5% | 20.0% |
| CAR | 1-0 | -7.8% | 7.6 | 1.3% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 17.7% | 23.0% | 4.1% |
| ATL | 0-1 | -15.3% | 5.8 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | -12.0% |
NFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1-0 | 11.9% | 10.5 | 12.3% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 1.7% | 15.0% | 13.1% | 10.5% | 30.0% | 38.6% | 68.6% | 5.5% |
| SF | 1-0 | 9.6% | 10.5 | 12.0% | 11.0% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 15.2% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 28.9% | 39.5% | 68.4% | 8.3% |
| LAR | 1-0 | 12.1% | 10.3 | 11.3% | 9.6% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 26.7% | 39.2% | 65.9% | 11.3% |
| ARI | 1-0 | 2.7% | 9.2 | 4.8% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 14.5% | 31.7% | 46.2% | 12.1% |
AFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 1-0 | 3.0% | 10.1 | 11.3% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 4.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 40.9% | 26.6% | 67.5% | 14.5% |
| BUF | 0-1 | 8.5% | 9.7 | 7.5% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 35.7% | 25.0% | 60.7% | -12.7% |
| NE | 0-1 | 4.0% | 9.2 | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 22.0% | 27.9% | 49.9% | -12.6% |
| NYJ | 0-1 | -23.4% | 5.1 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 4.7% | -2.9% |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0-1 | 13.2% | 9.8 | 9.9% | 11.9% | 12.0% | 3.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 37.6% | 24.1% | 61.6% | -11.1% |
| PIT | 1-0 | 4.6% | 9.5 | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 2.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 29.6% | 26.7% | 56.3% | 11.1% |
| CLE | 0-1 | 3.5% | 8.6 | 3.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 19.4% | 21.7% | 41.2% | -2.6% |
| CIN | 1-0 | -5.6% | 8.1 | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 13.5% | 17.7% | 31.2% | 8.2% |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 0-1 | -5.2% | 7.6 | 1.6% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 26.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 38.8% | 4.3% | 43.1% | -3.0% |
| TEN | 0-1 | -9.1% | 7.0 | 1.0% | 2.3% | 4.7% | 19.1% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 27.1% | 3.9% | 31.0% | -18.0% |
| HOU | 1-0 | -18.7% | 6.7 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 15.7% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 20.9% | 3.3% | 24.2% | 12.6% |
| JAX | 0-1 | -18.0% | 6.0 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 10.1% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 13.2% | 2.4% | 15.6% | -6.0% |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1-0 | 18.7% | 11.7 | 32.6% | 15.4% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 13.6% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 58.9% | 27.2% | 86.1% | 1.2% |
| DEN | 1-0 | 4.3% | 10.0 | 10.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 16.5% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 23.7% | 37.7% | 61.4% | 9.3% |
| LV | 1-0 | -2.7% | 8.5 | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 27.6% | 38.3% | 6.8% |
| LAC | 1-0 | -7.1% | 7.8 | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 20.6% | 27.3% | 5.2% |
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win | 17-0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 45.6% | 29.1% | 17.5% | 0.6% |
| KC | 46.2% | 30.5% | 17.0% | 0.5% |
| BAL | 24.5% | 13.3% | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| SEA | 22.2% | 11.1% | 6.0% | 0.1% |
| LAR | 21.5% | 10.9% | 5.7% | 0.1% |
| NO | 21.8% | 10.9% | 5.6% | 0.1% |
| SF | 21.0% | 10.4% | 5.3% | 0.1% |
| BUF | 20.0% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| GB | 16.1% | 7.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| MIA | 19.8% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| DEN | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| PIT | 16.3% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| NE | 12.9% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| DAL | 12.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.0% |
| MIN | 11.6% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| ARI | 9.6% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| CLE | 10.3% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| LV | 7.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| IND | 7.6% | 2.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| CIN | 5.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| PHI | 6.1% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| WAS | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| TEN | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| LAC | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| CAR | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| CHI | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| NYG | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| HOU | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JAX | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
ON THE CLOCK
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2022 NFL draft.
| Team | Top Pick | Top 5 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 19.7% | 58.8% |
| JAX | 12.8% | 46.4% |
| ATL | 11.2% | 45.2% |
| DET | 10.9% | 44.4% |
| HOU | 6.5% | 34.2% |
| WAS | 5.9% | 30.3% |
| NYG | 5.3% | 28.7% |
| CHI | 5.2% | 28.7% |
| TEN | 4.6% | 25.6% |
| CAR | 2.4% | 18.4% |
| IND | 2.7% | 18.1% |
| PHI | 1.9% | 14.8% |
| LAC | 1.4% | 13.7% |
| CIN | 1.5% | 13.4% |
| MIN | 1.4% | 10.7% |
| LV | 0.9% | 8.7% |
| CLE | 1.0% | 8.2% |
| DAL | 0.9% | 8.0% |
| NE | 0.8% | 7.2% |
| GB | 0.6% | 6.1% |
| ARI | 0.5% | 5.8% |
| PIT | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| BUF | 0.3% | 3.6% |
| MIA | 0.3% | 3.1% |
| DEN | 0.2% | 3.1% |
| BAL | 0.2% | 2.9% |
| SF | 0.1% | 2.1% |
| NO | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| LAR | 0.1% | 1.9% |
| SEA | 0.1% | 1.6% |
| TB | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| KC | 0.0% | 0.4% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl LV Rematch | TB vs KC | 8.8% |
| Frank Clark Reunion Special | SEA vs KC | 3.4% |
| Missouri Revenge Bowl | LAR vs KC | 3.4% |
| Willie Roaf Memories Bowl | NO vs KC | 3.3% |
| Super Bowl LIV Rematch | SF vs KC | 3.2% |
| Florida Bowl (South) | TB vs MIA | 2.7% |
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 2.3% |
| Bruce Arians Reunion Special | TB vs PIT | 2.2% |
| Tom Brady Reunion Special | TB vs NE | 1.7% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 1.5% |
| 1960 Double Dallas Showdown | DAL vs KC | 1.5% |
| Super Bowl XLVII Rematch | SF vs BAL | 1.4% |
| David Simon Crossover Bowl | NO vs BAL | 1.4% |
| Robert Woods Reunion Special | LAR vs BUF | 1.1% |
| Chris Berman's Dream | SF vs BUF | 1.0% |
| Super Bowl XIX Rematch | SF vs MIA | 1.0% |
| Super Bowl XXXVII Rematch | TB vs LV | 0.9% |
| Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch | SEA vs DEN | 0.9% |
| Super Bowl XXIV Rematch | SF vs DEN | 0.8% |
| Super Bowl XL Rematch | SEA vs PIT | 0.8% |
| Super Bowl XIV Rematch | LAR vs PIT | 0.8% |
| Dungy Bowl | TB vs IND | 0.8% |
| Super Bowl XLIX Rematch | SEA vs NE | 0.7% |
| Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch | LAR vs NE | 0.6% |
| Super Bowl XXXII Rematch | GB vs DEN | 0.6% |
| Andy Reid Reunion Special | PHI vs KC | 0.6% |
| Super Bowl XLV Rematch | GB vs PIT | 0.6% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special | SF vs NE | 0.6% |
| Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch | DAL vs BUF | 0.5% |
| Return of the Rams | LAR vs CLE | 0.5% |
| Fifth Time's The Charm | MIN vs BUF | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl VIII Rematch | MIN vs MIA | 0.5% |
| AAFC Memorial Bowl | SF vs CLE | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl VI Rematch | DAL vs MIA | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl XII Rematch | DAL vs DEN | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl XXXI Rematch | GB vs NE | 0.4% |
| Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch | DAL vs PIT | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl IX Rematch | MIN vs PIT | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XLIV Rematch | NO vs IND | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XLIII Rematch | ARI vs PIT | 0.3% |
| Battle of the Dynasties | DAL vs NE | 0.3% |
| Randy Moss Memories Bowl | MIN vs NE | 0.3% |
| DeForest Buckner Reunion Special | SF vs IND | 0.3% |
| Matt Nagy Reunion Special | CHI vs KC | 0.2% |
| Zac Taylor Reunion Special | LAR vs CIN | 0.2% |
| Who Dey vs. Who Dat | NO vs CIN | 0.2% |
| Kevin Stefanski Reunion Special | MIN vs CLE | 0.2% |
| Bill Walsh Memorial Bowl | SF vs CIN | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl II Rematch | GB vs LV | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch | LAR vs TEN | 0.2% |
| Beltway Bowl | WAS vs BAL | 0.2% |
| Keystone Bowl | PHI vs PIT | 0.1% |
| Fight for L.A. | LAR vs LAC | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl V Rematch | DAL vs IND | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XI Rematch | MIN vs LV | 0.1% |
| Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch | PHI vs NE | 0.1% |
| Matt LaFleur Reunion Special | GB vs TEN | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXV Rematch | NYG vs BAL | 0.1% |
| Vic Fangio Reunion Special | CHI vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Mike Zimmer Reunion Special | MIN vs CIN | 0.1% |
| Florida Bowl (North) | TB vs JAX | 0.1% |
| Super Bowls VII-XVII Rematch | WAS vs MIA | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXII Rematch | WAS vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXV Rematch | NYG vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXVI Rematch | WAS vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Gulf Coast Challenge | NO vs HOU | 0.1% |
| Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch | NYG vs NE | 0.1% |
| Sean McDermott Reunion Special | CAR vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Frank Reich Reunion Special | PHI vs IND | 0.1% |
| Odell Beckham Reunion Special | NYG vs CLE | 0.1% |