Revised as of 01/19/20, through Week 20.
Compiled by Mike Harris
The playoff odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 100.0% | 100.0% | 57.4% |
| SF | 100.0% | 100.0% | 42.6% |