Innovative Statistics
Football Outsiders exclusive statistics


Revised as of 01/19/20, through Week 20.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win
KC 100.0% 100.0% 57.4%
SF 100.0% 100.0% 42.6%