Revised as of 11/29/22, through Week 12
- Cleveland simulation is based on Deshaun Watson returning from suspension in Week 13.
- Indianapolis DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Matt Ryan.
- Miami DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Tua Tagovailoa.
- Pittsburgh DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of T.J. Watt.
- Tennessee DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Ryan Tannehill.
NFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 10-1 | 23.9% | 14.3 | 79.5% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 17.1% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 81.8% | 18.2% | 100.0% | 0.1% |
| DAL | 8-3 | 23.8% | 12.3 | 15.7% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 74.9% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 17.9% | 81.9% | 99.9% | 0.9% |
| WAS | 7-5 | 0.5% | 9.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 32.5% | 24.9% | 0.0% | 61.5% | 61.5% | 18.9% |
| NYG | 7-4 | -9.8% | 9.3 | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.2% | 24.0% | 24.0% | 0.2% | 50.2% | 50.4% | -1.5% |
NFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 9-2 | -7.9% | 11.9 | 2.9% | 54.0% | 38.2% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 98.9% | 0.4% | 99.3% | 3.7% |
| DET | 4-7 | -0.7% | 7.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 7.6% | 0.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | -5.1% |
| GB | 4-8 | 1.6% | 6.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | -3.7% |
| CHI | 3-9 | -23.4% | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
NFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 5-6 | 7.7% | 8.6 | 0.0% | 2.3% | 10.4% | 63.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 76.3% | 1.1% | 77.4% | -4.4% |
| ATL | 5-7 | -3.9% | 7.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.9% | 15.3% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 2.9% | 16.2% | 3.5% | 19.6% | -5.1% |
| NO | 4-8 | -9.2% | 5.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 4.3% | 0.2% | 4.5% | -0.9% |
| CAR | 4-8 | -18.3% | 5.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.2% | 0.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% |
NFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 7-4 | 16.4% | 11.0 | 1.8% | 35.3% | 41.0% | 7.1% | 0.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 85.2% | 10.7% | 96.0% | 7.3% |
| SEA | 6-5 | 6.5% | 9.4 | 0.0% | 4.2% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 27.4% | 28.6% | 14.8% | 57.3% | 72.0% | -12.4% |
| LAR | 3-8 | -13.0% | 5.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.8% | -0.2% |
| ARI | 4-8 | -25.4% | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
AFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 8-3 | 27.3% | 12.1 | 25.2% | 24.9% | 4.9% | 0.2% | 23.7% | 11.2% | 5.5% | 55.3% | 40.4% | 95.7% | 0.8% |
| MIA | 8-3 | 14.9% | 11.1 | 9.4% | 14.0% | 5.0% | 0.8% | 28.6% | 18.1% | 12.0% | 29.3% | 58.7% | 88.0% | 2.9% |
| NYJ | 7-4 | 11.1% | 10.1 | 1.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 14.7% | 18.4% | 22.7% | 10.6% | 55.8% | 66.4% | 9.2% |
| NE | 6-5 | 9.9% | 9.1 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 18.1% | 4.8% | 41.9% | 46.8% | -21.8% |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 7-4 | 24.1% | 11.1 | 3.8% | 15.1% | 38.1% | 18.1% | 2.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 75.1% | 17.0% | 92.1% | -4.8% |
| CIN | 7-4 | 16.1% | 10.2 | 3.5% | 6.7% | 10.3% | 2.6% | 15.1% | 18.4% | 15.8% | 23.1% | 49.3% | 72.4% | 15.9% |
| CLE | 4-7 | 5.1% | 7.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| PIT | 4-7 | -0.4% | 6.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 7-4 | 6.4% | 10.3 | 0.6% | 4.5% | 21.5% | 68.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 95.0% | 0.4% | 95.4% | -2.6% |
| JAX | 4-7 | -5.6% | 6.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 5.4% | 3.2% |
| IND | 4-7-1 | -18.4% | 6.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | -3.2% |
| HOU | 1-9-1 | -31.1% | 2.8 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 9-2 | 22.1% | 13.3 | 55.9% | 28.9% | 13.1% | 1.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 99.8% | 0.1% | 99.9% | 0.2% |
| LAC | 6-5 | -9.7% | 8.8 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 9.8% | 13.9% | 0.1% | 30.0% | 30.2% | -0.9% |
| LV | 4-7 | -7.0% | 6.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| DEN | 3-8 | -13.7% | 5.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.5% |
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 64.7% | 43.7% | 22.9% |
| KC | 54.2% | 30.6% | 16.3% |
| BUF | 43.9% | 25.5% | 14.7% |
| DAL | 38.1% | 21.4% | 11.2% |
| BAL | 32.4% | 16.7% | 9.2% |
| SF | 40.1% | 17.5% | 8.1% |
| MIA | 20.5% | 8.9% | 4.2% |
| CIN | 15.4% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| TB | 15.7% | 5.7% | 2.1% |
| TEN | 15.8% | 5.2% | 2.0% |
| NYJ | 9.8% | 3.7% | 1.6% |
| SEA | 11.5% | 4.0% | 1.5% |
| MIN | 16.9% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| NE | 6.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| WAS | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| NYG | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| ATL | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| DET | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| LAC | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
On the Clock
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Traded picks are not accounted for.
| Team | Top Pick | Top 5 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| HOU | 80.6% | 98.3% |
| CHI | 8.2% | 73.3% |
| DEN | 3.8% | 60.1% |
| CAR | 1.5% | 54.5% |
| ARI | 1.1% | 49.7% |
| LAR | 3.3% | 47.9% |
| NO | 0.5% | 31.2% |
| LV | 0.4% | 24.3% |
| JAX | 0.4% | 17.1% |
| IND | 0.1% | 13.0% |
| PIT | 0.1% | 8.5% |
| CLE | 0.1% | 6.5% |
| ATL | 0.0% | 6.3% |
| GB | 0.0% | 4.3% |
| DET | 0.0% | 3.8% |
| TB | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| LAC | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| SEA | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are listed.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Reid Reunion Special | PHI vs KC | 13.3% |
| LeSean McCoy Classic | PHI vs BUF | 11.3% |
| The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam | PHI vs BAL | 7.2% |
| 1960 Double Dallas Showdown | DAL vs KC | 6.5% |
| Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch | DAL vs BUF | 5.5% |
| Super Bowl LIV Rematch | SF vs KC | 5.4% |
| Chris Berman's Dream | SF vs BUF | 4.4% |
| Ace Ventura Bowl | PHI vs MIA | 3.9% |
| Super Bowl V Sort-of Rematch | DAL vs BAL | 3.5% |
| Super Bowl XLVII Rematch | SF vs BAL | 3.0% |
| A.J. Brown Reunion Special | PHI vs TEN | 2.3% |
| Super Bowl VI Rematch | DAL vs MIA | 1.9% |
| Super Bowl LV Rematch | TB vs KC | 1.8% |
| Flacco Bowl | PHI vs NYJ | 1.5% |
| Super Bowl XIX Rematch | SF vs MIA | 1.5% |
| 2022 Preseason Favorites | TB vs BUF | 1.4% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 1.4% |
| Super Bowls XXIII-XVI Rematch | SF vs CIN | 1.2% |
| Frank Clark Reunion Special | SEA vs KC | 1.1% |
| Fifth Time's The Charm | MIN vs BUF | 1.0% |
| Battle of the (Old) Bays | TB vs BAL | 1.0% |
| Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch | PHI vs NE | 1.0% |
| Robert Saleh Reunion Special | SF vs NYJ | 0.7% |
| Purple Reign | MIN vs BAL | 0.7% |
| Florida Bowl (South) | TB vs MIA | 0.5% |
| Battle of the Dynasties | DAL vs NE | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl XXVI Rematch | WAS vs BUF | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl VIII Rematch | MIN vs MIA | 0.3% |
| Giovani Bernard Reunion Special | TB vs CIN | 0.3% |
| Beltway Bowl | WAS vs BAL | 0.3% |
| Julio Jones Reunion Special | TB vs TEN | 0.3% |
| Todd Bowles Reunion Special | TB vs NYJ | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XXV Rematch | NYG vs BUF | 0.2% |
| Super Bowls VII-XVII Rematch | WAS vs MIA | 0.2% |
| Pete Carroll Reunion Special | SEA vs NYJ | 0.1% |
| Tom Brady Reunion Special | TB vs NE | 0.1% |
| Kyzir White Reunion Special | PHI vs LAC | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXV Rematch | NYG vs BAL | 0.1% |
| Randy Moss Classic | MIN vs NE | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XLIX Rematch | SEA vs NE | 0.1% |
Compiled by Mike Harris