2021 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

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This table explained

Revised as of 09/14/21, through Week 1

Compiled by Mike Harris

Washington DAVE is reduced by 10% in Weeks 2-7 due to Ryan Fitzpatrick injury, with Fitzpatrick returning 20% of the time in Week 8 and 100% of the time in Week 10.

NFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
DAL 0-1 4.6% 8.8 2.7% 6.4% 15.8% 18.3% 1.5% 3.0% 4.6% 43.2% 9.1% 52.3% -8.1%
PHI 1-0 -5.8% 8.2 2.5% 4.5% 9.7% 12.7% 1.9% 3.1% 5.0% 29.5% 10.1% 39.5% 16.3%
NYG 0-1 -8.2% 6.7 0.6% 1.5% 4.5% 7.4% 0.9% 1.8% 3.3% 14.0% 6.1% 20.0% -3.9%
WAS 0-1 -1.4% 6.5 0.5% 1.4% 4.1% 7.3% 0.8% 1.8% 3.1% 13.4% 5.7% 19.0% -18.0%

 

NFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
GB 0-1 9.2% 9.0 3.7% 7.6% 15.8% 18.5% 1.8% 3.3% 4.7% 45.6% 9.7% 55.3% -19.4%
MIN 0-1 5.3% 8.5 3.0% 5.7% 12.4% 13.7% 2.2% 3.8% 5.2% 34.8% 11.2% 46.0% -2.3%
CHI 0-1 -6.3% 6.7 0.4% 1.4% 4.2% 6.6% 0.8% 1.7% 2.9% 12.6% 5.3% 17.9% -7.9%
DET 0-1 -12.0% 5.8 0.1% 0.5% 2.2% 4.1% 0.4% 1.0% 1.8% 7.0% 3.1% 10.1% -6.9%

 

NFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
TB 1-0 20.3% 12.0 31.5% 20.5% 7.9% 2.8% 12.6% 8.3% 5.7% 62.7% 26.5% 89.2% 0.8%
NO 1-0 9.8% 10.5 13.2% 10.8% 4.9% 1.8% 17.7% 13.1% 10.1% 30.7% 40.9% 71.5% 20.0%
CAR 1-0 -7.8% 7.6 1.3% 2.0% 1.3% 0.7% 4.3% 5.9% 7.5% 5.3% 17.7% 23.0% 4.1%
ATL 0-1 -15.3% 5.8 0.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 1.9% 2.7% 1.4% 5.6% 6.9% -12.0%

 

NFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
SEA 1-0 11.9% 10.5 12.3% 11.0% 5.0% 1.7% 15.0% 13.1% 10.5% 30.0% 38.6% 68.6% 5.5%
SF 1-0 9.6% 10.5 12.0% 11.0% 4.5% 1.4% 15.2% 13.5% 10.9% 28.9% 39.5% 68.4% 8.3%
LAR 1-0 12.1% 10.3 11.3% 9.6% 4.4% 1.4% 14.7% 13.3% 11.2% 26.7% 39.2% 65.9% 11.3%
ARI 1-0 2.7% 9.2 4.8% 5.6% 2.9% 1.1% 9.5% 11.4% 10.9% 14.5% 31.7% 46.2% 12.1%

 

AFC East

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
MIA 1-0 3.0% 10.1 11.3% 13.6% 11.5% 4.6% 8.9% 9.1% 8.6% 40.9% 26.6% 67.5% 14.5%
BUF 0-1 8.5% 9.7 7.5% 11.3% 11.9% 4.9% 7.0% 9.0% 9.1% 35.7% 25.0% 60.7% -12.7%
NE 0-1 4.0% 9.2 4.8% 7.7% 6.9% 2.7% 8.6% 9.7% 9.6% 22.0% 27.9% 49.9% -12.6%
NYJ 0-1 -23.4% 5.1 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.5% 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 3.4% 4.7% -2.9%

 

AFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 0-1 13.2% 9.8 9.9% 11.9% 12.0% 3.7% 7.6% 8.4% 8.0% 37.6% 24.1% 61.6% -11.1%
PIT 1-0 4.6% 9.5 8.1% 9.6% 9.2% 2.7% 8.7% 9.1% 8.9% 29.6% 26.7% 56.3% 11.1%
CLE 0-1 3.5% 8.6 3.1% 5.9% 7.7% 2.7% 6.0% 7.6% 8.1% 19.4% 21.7% 41.2% -2.6%
CIN 1-0 -5.6% 8.1 2.6% 3.8% 5.1% 1.9% 4.7% 6.1% 7.0% 13.5% 17.7% 31.2% 8.2%

 

AFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
IND 0-1 -5.2% 7.6 1.6% 3.7% 7.0% 26.5% 0.6% 1.4% 2.3% 38.8% 4.3% 43.1% -3.0%
TEN 0-1 -9.1% 7.0 1.0% 2.3% 4.7% 19.1% 0.5% 1.2% 2.1% 27.1% 3.9% 31.0% -18.0%
HOU 1-0 -18.7% 6.7 0.5% 1.4% 3.2% 15.7% 0.4% 1.0% 1.8% 20.9% 3.3% 24.2% 12.6%
JAX 0-1 -18.0% 6.0 0.2% 0.8% 2.1% 10.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.4% 13.2% 2.4% 15.6% -6.0%

 

AFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
KC 1-0 18.7% 11.7 32.6% 15.4% 8.9% 2.0% 13.6% 7.8% 5.7% 58.9% 27.2% 86.1% 1.2%
DEN 1-0 4.3% 10.0 10.4% 6.9% 5.0% 1.4% 16.5% 11.6% 9.6% 23.7% 37.7% 61.4% 9.3%
LV 1-0 -2.7% 8.5 4.2% 3.2% 2.5% 0.8% 9.8% 9.2% 8.7% 10.7% 27.6% 38.3% 6.8%
LAC 1-0 -7.1% 7.8 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 0.6% 6.4% 6.8% 7.3% 6.8% 20.6% 27.3% 5.2%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 17-0
TB 45.6% 29.1% 17.5% 0.6%
KC 46.2% 30.5% 17.0% 0.5%
BAL 24.5% 13.3% 6.7% 0.0%
SEA 22.2% 11.1% 6.0% 0.1%
LAR 21.5% 10.9% 5.7% 0.1%
NO 21.8% 10.9% 5.6% 0.1%
SF 21.0% 10.4% 5.3% 0.1%
BUF 20.0% 9.7% 4.5% 0.0%
GB 16.1% 7.5% 3.9% 0.0%
MIA 19.8% 9.0% 3.7% 0.0%
DEN 17.1% 8.3% 3.5% 0.1%
PIT 16.3% 7.6% 3.3% 0.0%
NE 12.9% 5.7% 2.5% 0.0%
DAL 12.3% 5.1% 2.4% 0.0%
MIN 11.6% 5.0% 2.3% 0.0%
ARI 9.6% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
CLE 10.3% 4.4% 1.9% 0.0%
LV 7.2% 2.9% 1.0% 0.0%
IND 7.6% 2.6% 0.9% 0.0%
CIN 5.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0%
PHI 6.1% 2.0% 0.7% 0.0%
WAS 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0%
TEN 4.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
LAC 4.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0%
CAR 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
CHI 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
NYG 2.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
HOU 2.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
JAX 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

 

ON THE CLOCK

 

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2022 NFL draft.

 

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
NYJ 19.7% 58.8%
JAX 12.8% 46.4%
ATL 11.2% 45.2%
DET 10.9% 44.4%
HOU 6.5% 34.2%
WAS 5.9% 30.3%
NYG 5.3% 28.7%
CHI 5.2% 28.7%
TEN 4.6% 25.6%
CAR 2.4% 18.4%
IND 2.7% 18.1%
PHI 1.9% 14.8%
LAC 1.4% 13.7%
CIN 1.5% 13.4%
MIN 1.4% 10.7%
LV 0.9% 8.7%
CLE 1.0% 8.2%
DAL 0.9% 8.0%
NE 0.8% 7.2%
GB 0.6% 6.1%
ARI 0.5% 5.8%
PIT 0.3% 3.8%
BUF 0.3% 3.6%
MIA 0.3% 3.1%
DEN 0.2% 3.1%
BAL 0.2% 2.9%
SF 0.1% 2.1%
NO 0.1% 1.9%
LAR 0.1% 1.9%
SEA 0.1% 1.6%
TB 0.0% 0.4%
KC 0.0% 0.4%

 

 

 

Special Super Bowl Matchups

 

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.

 

 

Name Teams Chance
Super Bowl LV Rematch TB vs KC 8.8%
Frank Clark Reunion Special SEA vs KC 3.4%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 3.4%
Willie Roaf Memories Bowl NO vs KC 3.3%
Super Bowl LIV Rematch SF vs KC 3.2%
Florida Bowl (South) TB vs MIA 2.7%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 2.3%
Bruce Arians Reunion Special TB vs PIT 2.2%
Tom Brady Reunion Special TB vs NE 1.7%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 1.5%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown DAL vs KC 1.5%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch SF vs BAL 1.4%
David Simon Crossover Bowl NO vs BAL 1.4%
Robert Woods Reunion Special LAR vs BUF 1.1%
Chris Berman's Dream SF vs BUF 1.0%
Super Bowl XIX Rematch SF vs MIA 1.0%
Super Bowl XXXVII Rematch TB vs LV 0.9%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 0.9%
Super Bowl XXIV Rematch SF vs DEN 0.8%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.8%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 0.8%
Dungy Bowl TB vs IND 0.8%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.7%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch LAR vs NE 0.6%
Super Bowl XXXII Rematch GB vs DEN 0.6%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.6%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.6%
Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special SF vs NE 0.6%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.5%
Return of the Rams LAR vs CLE 0.5%
Fifth Time's The Charm MIN vs BUF 0.5%
Super Bowl VIII Rematch MIN vs MIA 0.5%
AAFC Memorial Bowl SF vs CLE 0.5%
Super Bowl VI Rematch DAL vs MIA 0.5%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 0.4%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 0.4%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.4%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.3%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 0.3%
Super Bowl XLIII Rematch ARI vs PIT 0.3%
Battle of the Dynasties DAL vs NE 0.3%
Randy Moss Memories Bowl MIN vs NE 0.3%
DeForest Buckner Reunion Special SF vs IND 0.3%
Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 0.2%
Zac Taylor Reunion Special LAR vs CIN 0.2%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.2%
Kevin Stefanski Reunion Special MIN vs CLE 0.2%
Bill Walsh Memorial Bowl SF vs CIN 0.2%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs LV 0.2%
Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch LAR vs TEN 0.2%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.2%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.1%
Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs LV 0.1%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 0.1%
Matt LaFleur Reunion Special GB vs TEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.1%
Vic Fangio Reunion Special CHI vs DEN 0.1%
Mike Zimmer Reunion Special MIN vs CIN 0.1%
Florida Bowl (North) TB vs JAX 0.1%
Super Bowls VII-XVII Rematch WAS vs MIA 0.1%
Super Bowl XXII Rematch WAS vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XXV Rematch NYG vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowl XXVI Rematch WAS vs BUF 0.1%
Gulf Coast Challenge NO vs HOU 0.1%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 0.1%
Sean McDermott Reunion Special CAR vs BUF 0.1%
Frank Reich Reunion Special PHI vs IND 0.1%
Odell Beckham Reunion Special NYG vs CLE 0.1%