2020 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 09/15/20, through Week 1.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

NFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
DAL 0-1 6.0% 8.3 4.9% 7.5% 11.4% 16.6% 2.8% 3.9% 4.7% 40.4% 11.4% 51.8% -4.1%
PHI 0-1 1.9% 7.6 3.4% 4.9% 7.3% 10.7% 3.3% 4.3% 5.0% 26.3% 12.6% 38.8% -12.9%
WAS 1-0 -15.3% 7.0 1.8% 3.0% 5.0% 8.7% 2.3% 3.3% 4.2% 18.6% 9.8% 28.4% 14.3%
NYG 0-1 -9.5% 6.6 1.3% 2.3% 4.2% 6.9% 2.0% 3.0% 3.9% 14.8% 8.8% 23.5% -8.5%

 

NFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
GB 1-0 -0.7% 8.4 5.9% 7.6% 10.4% 9.9% 4.6% 5.5% 6.3% 33.7% 16.4% 50.1% 10.3%
CHI 1-0 -2.8% 8.3 5.8% 7.2% 9.2% 9.3% 4.9% 5.7% 6.5% 31.5% 17.0% 48.5% 12.5%
DET 0-1 1.1% 7.6 2.8% 4.5% 6.0% 6.0% 4.3% 5.5% 6.1% 19.3% 15.9% 35.2% -10.3%
MIN 0-1 -0.2% 7.2 2.0% 3.3% 4.8% 5.4% 3.6% 4.8% 5.8% 15.5% 14.2% 29.7% -8.3%

 

NFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
NO 1-0 22.2% 10.6 28.1% 18.5% 12.3% 7.6% 7.4% 5.6% 4.6% 66.4% 17.6% 84.0% 6.0%
TB 0-1 7.1% 8.3 4.9% 5.0% 4.2% 3.0% 11.3% 9.0% 8.2% 17.1% 28.5% 45.6% -7.6%
ATL 0-1 2.9% 7.4 2.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% 5.2% 6.6% 7.0% 12.6% 18.8% 31.5% -12.2%
CAR 0-1 -13.1% 5.9 0.5% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 2.4% 3.2% 3.9% 3.9% 9.5% 13.4% -1.8%

 

NFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
SEA 1-0 9.7% 9.7 15.3% 12.0% 7.0% 3.5% 14.2% 10.6% 8.1% 37.8% 32.8% 70.6% 15.0%
LAR 1-0 3.9% 8.9 9.4% 8.5% 5.3% 2.9% 12.1% 10.5% 9.0% 26.1% 31.6% 57.7% 7.5%
ARI 1-0 0.5% 8.8 8.1% 7.6% 5.2% 3.3% 11.7% 10.3% 8.8% 24.1% 30.8% 54.9% 10.8%
SF 0-1 3.9% 7.8 3.5% 3.7% 2.9% 1.9% 7.9% 8.3% 8.1% 12.0% 24.3% 36.3% -10.7%

 

AFC East

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
NE 1-0 3.0% 8.8 7.3% 9.6% 11.8% 16.5% 4.4% 5.3% 5.9% 45.2% 15.6% 60.8% 12.2%
BUF 1-0 -0.7% 8.4 5.7% 7.8% 9.9% 14.1% 4.7% 5.6% 5.9% 37.4% 16.3% 53.7% 7.8%
NYJ 0-1 -14.0% 6.3 0.6% 1.3% 2.6% 4.9% 1.7% 3.0% 4.1% 9.5% 8.8% 18.3% -9.5%
MIA 0-1 -17.3% 6.1 0.5% 1.2% 2.0% 4.2% 1.8% 2.8% 3.6% 7.9% 8.1% 16.0% -9.8%

 

AFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 1-0 18.9% 10.3 22.8% 14.5% 9.8% 6.6% 13.4% 7.9% 6.3% 53.7% 27.6% 81.3% 12.4%
PIT 1-0 10.6% 9.8 14.0% 10.9% 8.0% 5.3% 15.1% 9.7% 7.8% 38.3% 32.5% 70.9% 8.5%
CLE 0-1 -12.0% 6.6 0.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.1% 4.4% 5.2% 6.0% 4.5% 15.5% 20.0% -17.3%
CIN 0-1 -15.5% 6.0 0.4% 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 2.0% 3.2% 3.8% 3.4% 9.0% 12.4% -8.7%

 

AFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
TEN 1-0 0.9% 8.7 6.8% 8.7% 10.6% 9.0% 6.1% 7.0% 7.4% 35.2% 20.5% 55.7% 5.7%
IND 0-1 4.3% 8.1 3.7% 5.7% 7.5% 7.5% 5.7% 7.1% 7.3% 24.4% 20.0% 44.4% -15.6%
JAX 1-0 -7.1% 7.9 3.3% 5.0% 7.2% 7.3% 4.9% 6.1% 7.2% 22.8% 18.1% 40.9% 13.7%
HOU 0-1 -2.3% 7.3 1.8% 3.4% 5.7% 6.7% 3.3% 4.8% 6.1% 17.7% 14.2% 31.9% -7.8%

 

AFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
KC 1-0 18.8% 10.3 21.9% 17.2% 11.3% 6.6% 9.8% 8.3% 6.2% 56.9% 24.3% 81.2% 1.9%
LAC 1-0 -2.2% 8.4 5.2% 5.7% 4.6% 3.5% 11.0% 10.2% 9.2% 19.0% 30.4% 49.4% 8.7%
LV 1-0 -3.3% 8.2 4.1% 5.1% 4.5% 3.5% 8.7% 9.2% 8.2% 17.3% 26.1% 43.5% 8.4%
DEN 0-1 -7.5% 6.6 0.9% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 3.2% 4.6% 5.1% 6.7% 12.9% 19.6% -10.6%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 16-0
NO 43.8% 28.1% 16.5% 0.3%
BAL 37.2% 22.5% 12.8% 0.2%
KC 37.4% 22.1% 12.6% 0.2%
SEA 24.8% 12.8% 6.3% 0.1%
PIT 24.1% 12.7% 6.3% 0.1%
LAR 16.1% 7.6% 3.5% 0.0%
NE 16.6% 7.5% 3.5% 0.0%
DAL 15.5% 7.3% 3.4% 0.0%
ARI 13.6% 6.3% 3.0% 0.0%
TB 12.0% 6.1% 2.8% 0.0%
TEN 14.7% 6.4% 2.8% 0.0%
BUF 13.4% 5.8% 2.6% 0.0%
GB 12.6% 5.6% 2.5% 0.0%
IND 11.5% 5.2% 2.3% 0.0%
CHI 11.2% 4.8% 2.0% 0.0%
PHI 9.6% 4.3% 2.0% 0.0%
SF 8.8% 3.9% 1.9% 0.0%
LAC 10.3% 4.3% 1.9% 0.0%
DET 8.5% 3.8% 1.7% 0.0%
LV 9.1% 3.7% 1.5% 0.0%
ATL 7.2% 3.3% 1.5% 0.0%
MIN 6.5% 2.8% 1.2% 0.0%
JAX 8.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.0%
HOU 6.4% 2.7% 1.2% 0.0%
NYG 3.9% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
WAS 4.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0%
DEN 3.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0%
CLE 2.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
NYJ 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0%
CAR 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
CIN 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
MIA 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

 

ON THE CLOCK

 

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

 

 

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CAR 11.0% 40.7%
CIN 10.9% 40.4%
MIA 10.7% 39.4%
NYJ 8.8% 35.3%
CLE 7.1% 30.4%
NYG 6.8% 30.1%
DEN 5.8% 26.9%
WAS 5.2% 26.2%
MIN 3.6% 19.3%
HOU 3.2% 17.6%
DET 3.1% 17.4%
ATL 2.6% 16.4%
PHI 2.3% 14.8%
JAX 2.0% 13.7%
SF 1.8% 12.6%
IND 1.7% 11.8%
LV 1.5% 11.0%
DAL 1.5% 10.8%
CHI 1.5% 10.7%
TB 1.5% 10.1%
GB 1.3% 10.0%
LAC 1.2% 9.8%
BUF 1.0% 8.4%
TEN 1.0% 7.4%
ARI 0.8% 7.2%
NE 0.7% 6.3%
LAR 0.7% 5.7%
SEA 0.3% 2.9%
PIT 0.3% 2.9%
KC 0.1% 1.4%
BAL 0.1% 1.3%
NO 0.1% 1.2%

 

 

 

Special Super Bowl Matchups

 

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.

 

 

Name Teams Chance
David Simon Crossover Bowl NO vs BAL 6.2%
Willie Roaf Memories Bowl NO vs KC 6.1%
Frank Clark Reunion Special SEA vs KC 2.7%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 1.8%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown DAL vs KC 1.7%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 1.6%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 1.4%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 1.2%
Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 1.1%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LAC 1.1%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 1.0%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 0.9%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.9%
Super Bowl LIV Rematch SF vs KC 0.9%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.9%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch SF vs BAL 0.9%
Jadaveon Clowney Reunion Special SEA vs TEN 0.8%
Gulf Coast Challenge NO vs HOU 0.8%
Super Bowl XLIII Rematch ARI vs PIT 0.7%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.7%
Battle of the Dynasties DAL vs NE 0.6%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.6%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.6%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch LAR vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch LAR vs TEN 0.4%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 0.4%
Tom Brady Reunion Special TB vs NE 0.4%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.4%
Matt LaFleur Reunion Special GB vs TEN 0.4%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.4%
Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 0.4%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 0.3%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 0.3%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.3%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.3%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.3%
Super Bowl XLI Rematch CHI vs IND 0.3%
DeForest Buckner Reunion Special SF vs IND 0.2%
Matt Patricia Reunion Special DET vs NE 0.2%
Super Bowl LI Rematch ATL vs NE 0.2%
Frank Reich Reunion Special PHI vs IND 0.2%
Randy Moss Memories Bowl MIN vs NE 0.2%
Chris Berman's Dream SF vs BUF 0.2%
Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special SF vs NE 0.2%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs LV 0.2%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.2%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 0.2%
Khalil Mack Reunion Special CHI vs LV 0.2%
Fifth Time's The Charm MIN vs BUF 0.2%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.2%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs LV 0.2%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 0.1%
Florida Bowl (North) TB vs JAX 0.1%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special SEA vs NYJ 0.1%
Super Bowl XXV Rematch NYG vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowl XXVI Rematch WAS vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXII Rematch GB vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 0.1%
Cam Newton Reunion Special CAR vs NE 0.1%
Return of the Rams LAR vs CLE 0.1%
Super Bowl XXIV Rematch SF vs DEN 0.1%