Revised as of 11/03/20, through Week 8.
Compiled by Mike Harris
The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DAVE and DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.
Starting with Week 7, the playoff odds simulation rescales DAVE ratings to match the standard deviation of ratings over the average full season in order to get more accurate results. The DAVE ratings listed below are the rescaled ratings, not the ratings you will find on the DVOA stats pages.
- Dallas DAVE is adjusted for games not started by Andy Dalton. In 40% of simulations, Ben DiNucci starts in Week 9 due to Dalton's concussion and the Cowboys' DAVE is 10.0% lower.
- Miami DAVE is adjusted to represent only a projection with Tua Tagovailoa as starting quarterback.
- New England DAVE is adjusted for games not started by Cam Newton.
- San Francisco DAVE is adjusted for the Jimmy Garoppolo injury. San Francisco's rating is 7% lower for Weeks 9-14, with the chance of Garoppolo returning growing by 20% each week starting with Week 15.
NFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 3-4-1 | -9.0% | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 57.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 61.0% | 0.1% | 61.0% | 5.3% |
| WAS | 2-5 | -17.1% | 5.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 23.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 24.3% | 0.2% | 24.6% | 1.2% |
| DAL | 2-6 | -26.6% | 4.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.9% | 0.0% | 8.0% | -5.5% |
| NYG | 1-7 | -15.8% | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 6.8% | -0.9% |
NFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 5-2 | 11.0% | 10.3 | 7.8% | 16.5% | 38.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 64.4% | 15.5% | 80.0% | -2.7% |
| CHI | 5-3 | -3.6% | 8.9 | 1.5% | 5.2% | 20.3% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 6.8% | 13.8% | 27.9% | 22.7% | 50.7% | -4.4% |
| DET | 3-4 | 0.0% | 7.5 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 3.9% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 12.1% | 17.3% | -6.0% |
| MIN | 2-5 | -1.7% | 6.5 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 5.2% |
NFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 6-2 | 33.5% | 11.6 | 30.2% | 22.8% | 7.5% | 0.1% | 18.6% | 9.9% | 5.3% | 60.6% | 33.9% | 94.5% | 4.1% |
| NO | 5-2 | 23.1% | 10.6 | 16.0% | 14.2% | 8.8% | 0.2% | 24.0% | 15.8% | 9.2% | 39.1% | 49.0% | 88.1% | 13.2% |
| CAR | 3-5 | -8.2% | 6.2 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 3.2% | -3.1% |
| ATL | 2-6 | -5.0% | 5.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
NFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 6-1 | 20.1% | 11.8 | 32.1% | 21.6% | 6.0% | 0.1% | 16.1% | 11.7% | 6.6% | 59.7% | 34.4% | 94.1% | 13.7% |
| ARI | 5-2 | 9.1% | 10.0 | 6.6% | 10.6% | 6.4% | 0.1% | 14.8% | 18.3% | 15.0% | 23.6% | 48.0% | 71.7% | 6.2% |
| LAR | 5-3 | 13.9% | 9.5 | 5.3% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 16.3% | 19.9% | 19.1% | 15.0% | 55.3% | 70.3% | -5.5% |
| SF | 4-4 | 8.3% | 7.9 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 1.7% | 19.6% | 21.3% | -21.0% |
AFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 6-2 | 4.3% | 10.2 | 2.2% | 7.2% | 24.1% | 50.0% | 0.6% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 83.5% | 6.6% | 90.1% | 3.4% |
| MIA | 4-3 | -10.8% | 8.2 | 0.1% | 1.1% | 4.2% | 8.6% | 2.6% | 9.0% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 23.6% | 37.6% | 19.8% |
| NE | 2-5 | -10.2% | 6.1 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 5.8% | 8.2% | -7.7% |
| NYJ | 0-8 | -38.4% | 2.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.0% |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 7-0 | 25.1% | 13.3 | 51.8% | 22.2% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 15.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 81.8% | 17.9% | 99.7% | 1.1% |
| BAL | 5-2 | 25.5% | 11.2 | 6.0% | 7.2% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 52.6% | 15.7% | 7.3% | 17.0% | 75.6% | 92.5% | -4.3% |
| CLE | 5-3 | -8.2% | 8.8 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 8.7% | 17.9% | 18.2% | 1.2% | 44.8% | 46.1% | -15.5% |
| CIN | 2-5-1 | -23.4% | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 5-2 | 21.0% | 10.5 | 4.0% | 9.6% | 25.4% | 19.8% | 5.9% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 58.8% | 24.5% | 83.3% | 9.9% |
| TEN | 5-2 | 9.2% | 9.7 | 0.8% | 4.9% | 23.3% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 15.3% | 13.8% | 40.5% | 34.5% | 75.0% | -10.0% |
| HOU | 1-6 | -5.7% | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | -0.0% |
| JAX | 1-6 | -24.0% | 3.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 7-1 | 31.3% | 12.5 | 34.8% | 45.5% | 11.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 95.0% | 4.6% | 99.6% | 0.1% |
| LV | 4-3 | -10.3% | 8.3 | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 5.5% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 4.1% | 34.7% | 38.8% | 9.1% |
| LAC | 2-5 | -3.3% | 6.8 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 0.5% | 15.0% | 15.5% | -10.6% |
| DEN | 3-4 | -17.2% | 6.4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 3.0% | 5.6% | 0.4% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 4.3% |
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win | 16-0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 58.8% | 34.3% | 19.3% | 0.0% |
| TB | 50.6% | 32.1% | 17.7% | 0.0% |
| PIT | 54.2% | 30.1% | 15.8% | 4.9% |
| SEA | 40.3% | 20.8% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| NO | 32.2% | 17.2% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| BAL | 25.6% | 12.3% | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| IND | 23.4% | 10.5% | 5.3% | 0.0% |
| GB | 21.3% | 9.0% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| LAR | 16.4% | 7.2% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| ARI | 16.4% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| BUF | 15.6% | 5.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| TEN | 12.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 0.0% |
| CHI | 6.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| PHI | 6.8% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| SF | 3.2% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| DET | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| CLE | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LV | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| MIA | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| LAC | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| WAS | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
ON THE CLOCK
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
| Team | Top Pick | Top 5 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 57.9% | 94.6% |
| JAX | 16.8% | 75.5% |
| NYG | 8.9% | 60.0% |
| DAL | 6.7% | 59.4% |
| CIN | 1.3% | 34.6% |
| ATL | 1.3% | 33.8% |
| WAS | 2.3% | 32.7% |
| HOU | 2.1% | 30.1% |
| NE | 1.3% | 18.4% |
| LAC | 0.5% | 12.2% |
| MIN | 0.4% | 12.1% |
| CAR | 0.2% | 11.3% |
| DEN | 0.1% | 9.6% |
| PHI | 0.0% | 6.5% |
| DET | 0.1% | 4.4% |
| MIA | 0.0% | 2.0% |
| SF | 0.0% | 1.2% |
| LV | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| CLE | 0.0% | 0.3% |
| CHI | 0.0% | 0.3% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| The GOAT vs. The Kid | TB vs KC | 11.0% |
| Bruce Arians Reunion Special | TB vs PIT | 9.6% |
| Frank Clark Reunion Special | SEA vs KC | 7.2% |
| Super Bowl XL Rematch | SEA vs PIT | 6.3% |
| Willie Roaf Memories Bowl | NO vs KC | 5.8% |
| Dungy Bowl | TB vs IND | 3.2% |
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 3.1% |
| Super Bowl XLV Rematch | GB vs PIT | 2.7% |
| Missouri Revenge Bowl | LAR vs KC | 2.5% |
| David Simon Crossover Bowl | NO vs BAL | 2.1% |
| Super Bowl XLIII Rematch | ARI vs PIT | 2.1% |
| Super Bowl XIV Rematch | LAR vs PIT | 2.1% |
| Super Bowl XLIV Rematch | NO vs IND | 1.9% |
| Jadaveon Clowney Reunion Special | SEA vs TEN | 1.0% |
| Matt Nagy Reunion Special | CHI vs KC | 0.7% |
| Andy Reid Reunion Special | PHI vs KC | 0.6% |
| Keystone Bowl | PHI vs PIT | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl LIV Rematch | SF vs KC | 0.4% |
| Matt LaFleur Reunion Special | GB vs TEN | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch | LAR vs TEN | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XLI Rematch | CHI vs IND | 0.2% |
| Frank Reich Reunion Special | PHI vs IND | 0.2% |
| Florida Bowl (South) | TB vs MIA | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XXXVII Rematch | TB vs LV | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XLVII Rematch | SF vs BAL | 0.2% |
| DeForest Buckner Reunion Special | SF vs IND | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl IX Rematch | MIN vs PIT | 0.1% |
| Chris Berman's Dream | SF vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Return of the Rams | LAR vs CLE | 0.1% |