Revised as of 01/18/21, through Week 19.
Compiled by Mike Harris
The playoff odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.)
Kansas City's rating does not include Week 17 and assumes Patrick Mahomes will start in the AFC Championship Game.
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 100.0% | 60.4% | 31.7% |
| BUF | 100.0% | 48.6% | 25.2% |
| KC | 100.0% | 51.4% | 22.5% |
| TB | 100.0% | 39.6% | 20.5% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 31.1% |
| Mini TV Markets Bowl | GB vs BUF | 29.4% |
| The GOAT vs. The Kid | TB vs KC | 20.3% |
| Brady vs. Buffalo Again | TB vs BUF | 19.2% |