Revised as of 11/22/21, through Week 11
DAVE ratings for Arizona, Baltimore, Dallas, Green Bay, Houston, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Seattle are adjusted upwards to filter out past games with backup quarterbacks.
Carolina DAVE uses a projection for the offense with Cam Newton rather than the offensive DAVE that is mostly Sam Darnold.
New Orleans DAVE is reduced due to Jameis Winston injury.
NFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 7-3 | 18.4% | 11.5 | 16.7% | 17.6% | 21.7% | 30.1% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 86.0% | 8.9% | 94.9% | -3.4% |
| PHI | 5-6 | 8.0% | 8.9 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 9.4% | 3.9% | 11.7% | 17.4% | 11.8% | 33.1% | 44.9% | 19.6% |
| WAS | 4-6 | -7.6% | 6.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 1.1% |
| NYG | 3-7 | -12.0% | 5.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.9% | -2.1% |
NFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 8-3 | 13.0% | 11.9 | 18.3% | 24.3% | 24.4% | 20.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 87.4% | 10.6% | 98.0% | -0.7% |
| MIN | 5-5 | 10.6% | 9.1 | 0.2% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 16.3% | 15.6% | 12.5% | 42.4% | 55.0% | 6.6% |
| CHI | 3-7 | -11.9% | 5.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.7% | -0.7% |
| DET | 0-9-1 | -23.6% | 2.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
NFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 7-3 | 29.3% | 12.2 | 20.3% | 28.8% | 26.6% | 14.7% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 90.4% | 7.5% | 97.9% | 0.8% |
| NO | 5-5 | 8.7% | 9.2 | 0.1% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 5.8% | 14.8% | 18.1% | 7.7% | 38.6% | 46.3% | -11.6% |
| CAR | 5-6 | 3.2% | 7.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 1.6% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | -3.7% |
| ATL | 4-6 | -34.8% | 5.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | -1.2% |
NFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 9-2 | 20.0% | 12.9 | 40.3% | 22.7% | 16.4% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 89.4% | 10.2% | 99.6% | 1.5% |
| LAR | 7-3 | 14.5% | 10.8 | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 43.9% | 18.2% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 73.7% | 83.4% | -1.2% |
| SF | 5-5 | 16.1% | 9.6 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 19.5% | 21.7% | 17.7% | 0.9% | 58.9% | 59.8% | 9.7% |
| SEA | 3-7 | 7.8% | 7.0 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | -14.7% |
AFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 7-4 | 24.4% | 11.1 | 30.0% | 16.0% | 9.2% | 4.9% | 18.3% | 10.1% | 5.6% | 60.1% | 33.9% | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| BUF | 6-4 | 16.9% | 10.1 | 5.7% | 9.7% | 12.4% | 12.1% | 8.5% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 39.9% | 33.6% | 73.5% | -22.3% |
| MIA | 4-7 | -13.9% | 6.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 1.4% | -0.8% |
| NYJ | 2-8 | -28.2% | 3.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.1% |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 7-3 | 7.9% | 11.0 | 19.4% | 17.4% | 14.5% | 11.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 62.6% | 21.7% | 84.4% | 2.5% |
| CIN | 6-4 | -10.2% | 8.8 | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 12.0% | 23.3% | 35.3% | 11.3% |
| CLE | 6-5 | -0.2% | 8.9 | 0.3% | 1.5% | 4.1% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 15.2% | 18.0% | 33.1% | 0.6% |
| PIT | 5-4-1 | -1.3% | 8.6 | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 20.3% | 30.5% | -18.4% |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 8-3 | -2.5% | 11.0 | 20.9% | 19.5% | 21.5% | 26.2% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 88.1% | 6.6% | 94.7% | -4.7% |
| IND | 6-5 | 13.6% | 9.5 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 22.0% | 16.9% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 53.3% | 65.1% | 25.6% |
| HOU | 2-8 | -22.5% | 4.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| JAX | 2-8 | -18.7% | 4.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 7-4 | 13.5% | 11.0 | 10.3% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 52.5% | 32.0% | 84.6% | 11.7% |
| LAC | 6-4 | 4.0% | 10.1 | 8.1% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 11.1% | 11.6% | 10.0% | 39.8% | 32.7% | 72.4% | 11.7% |
| DEN | 5-5 | -6.2% | 8.2 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 12.1% | 18.0% | -5.9% |
| LV | 5-5 | -7.9% | 7.6 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 11.0% | 12.9% | -17.1% |
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 49.4% | 30.6% | 19.4% |
| NE | 48.9% | 32.7% | 17.0% |
| ARI | 44.7% | 24.0% | 14.4% |
| DAL | 32.6% | 16.0% | 8.7% |
| GB | 29.1% | 12.7% | 6.2% |
| BUF | 24.3% | 13.2% | 6.1% |
| KC | 28.4% | 14.0% | 6.1% |
| BAL | 27.7% | 12.7% | 4.7% |
| LAR | 15.0% | 6.2% | 3.1% |
| IND | 16.1% | 7.5% | 3.1% |
| TEN | 22.3% | 8.4% | 2.5% |
| LAC | 16.4% | 6.5% | 2.3% |
| SF | 9.2% | 3.7% | 1.9% |
| MIN | 7.6% | 2.7% | 1.3% |
| NO | 5.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| PHI | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| CLE | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| PIT | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| CIN | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| DEN | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| LV | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
ON THE CLOCK
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.
| Team | Top Pick | Top 5 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| DET | 62.0% | 96.6% |
| NYJ | 18.4% | 86.3% |
| HOU | 8.5% | 70.6% |
| JAX | 7.3% | 70.2% |
| ATL | 1.1% | 58.6% |
| CHI | 1.3% | 38.5% |
| NYG | 1.0% | 35.6% |
| MIA | 0.1% | 21.2% |
| WAS | 0.0% | 9.5% |
| SEA | 0.1% | 7.3% |
| DEN | 0.0% | 1.5% |
| CAR | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| LV | 0.0% | 1.1% |
| PHI | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| PIT | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| MIN | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| NO | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| CIN | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady Reunion Special | TB vs NE | 9.9% |
| Chandler Jones Reunion Special | ARI vs NE | 7.8% |
| Battle of the Dynasties | DAL vs NE | 5.2% |
| Super Bowl LV Rematch | TB vs KC | 4.3% |
| Super Bowl XXXI Rematch | GB vs NE | 4.2% |
| Gronk's Homecoming | TB vs BUF | 4.0% |
| Battle of the (Old) Bays | TB vs BAL | 3.8% |
| Texas Tech Reunion Special | ARI vs KC | 3.4% |
| Calais Campbell Reunion Special | ARI vs BAL | 3.2% |
| Hail Murray Rematch | ARI vs BUF | 3.2% |
| $10 Bowl | TB vs TEN | 2.7% |
| Dungy Bowl | TB vs IND | 2.3% |
| Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch | DAL vs BUF | 2.2% |
| 1960 Double Dallas Showdown | DAL vs KC | 2.2% |
| Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch | LAR vs NE | 2.1% |
| AT&M&T Bowl | DAL vs BAL | 2.0% |
| Ken Whisenhunt Classic | ARI vs TEN | 2.0% |
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 1.7% |
| DeMarco Murray Classic | DAL vs TEN | 1.4% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special | SF vs NE | 1.2% |
| Super Bowl V Rematch | DAL vs IND | 1.2% |
| Matt LaFleur Reunion Special | GB vs TEN | 1.0% |
| Missouri Revenge Bowl | LAR vs KC | 0.9% |
| Randy Moss Classic | MIN vs NE | 0.9% |
| Robert Woods Reunion Special | LAR vs BUF | 0.8% |
| Marcus Peters Reunion Special | LAR vs BAL | 0.7% |
| Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch | PHI vs NE | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl LIV Rematch | SF vs KC | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch | LAR vs TEN | 0.5% |
| Chris Berman's Dream | SF vs BUF | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl XLVII Rematch | SF vs BAL | 0.5% |
| Bruce Arians Reunion Special | TB vs PIT | 0.5% |
| Sooner Bowl | ARI vs CLE | 0.4% |
| Fight for L.A. | LAR vs LAC | 0.4% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 0.4% |
| Fifth Time's The Charm | MIN vs BUF | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XLIII Rematch | ARI vs PIT | 0.3% |
| DeForest Buckner Reunion Special | SF vs IND | 0.3% |
| Willie Roaf Classic | NO vs KC | 0.3% |
| Andy Reid Reunion Special | PHI vs KC | 0.2% |
| David Simon Crossover Bowl | NO vs BAL | 0.2% |
| Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch | DAL vs PIT | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XLV Rematch | GB vs PIT | 0.2% |
| Frank Reich Reunion Special | PHI vs IND | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XLIV Rematch | NO vs IND | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XII Rematch | DAL vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Return of the Rams | LAR vs CLE | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXVII Rematch | TB vs LV | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch | CAR vs NE | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XIV Rematch | LAR vs PIT | 0.1% |
| Kevin Stefanski Reunion Special | MIN vs CLE | 0.1% |
| Zac Taylor Reunion Special | LAR vs CIN | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXII Rematch | GB vs DEN | 0.1% |
| AAFC Memorial Bowl | SF vs CLE | 0.1% |
Compiled by Mike Harris
