2022 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS

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This table explained

Revised as of 11/29/22, through Week 12

  • Cleveland simulation is based on Deshaun Watson returning from suspension in Week 13.
  • Indianapolis DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Matt Ryan.
  • Miami DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Tua Tagovailoa.
  • Pittsburgh DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of T.J. Watt.
  • Tennessee DAVE has a small adjustment for the return of Ryan Tannehill.

NFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
PHI 10-1 23.9% 14.3 79.5% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 17.1% 1.0% 0.1% 81.8% 18.2% 100.0% 0.1%
DAL 8-3 23.8% 12.3 15.7% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 74.9% 6.0% 1.1% 17.9% 81.9% 99.9% 0.9%
WAS 7-5 0.5% 9.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 32.5% 24.9% 0.0% 61.5% 61.5% 18.9%
NYG 7-4 -9.8% 9.3 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.2% 24.0% 24.0% 0.2% 50.2% 50.4% -1.5%

 

NFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
MIN 9-2 -7.9% 11.9 2.9% 54.0% 38.2% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 98.9% 0.4% 99.3% 3.7%
DET 4-7 -0.7% 7.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 2.7% 7.6% 0.9% 10.3% 11.2% -5.1%
GB 4-8 1.6% 6.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 3.2% 0.2% 3.6% 3.8% -3.7%
CHI 3-9 -23.4% 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%

 

NFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
TB 5-6 7.7% 8.6 0.0% 2.3% 10.4% 63.6% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 76.3% 1.1% 77.4% -4.4%
ATL 5-7 -3.9% 7.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 15.3% 0.0% 0.6% 2.9% 16.2% 3.5% 19.6% -5.1%
NO 4-8 -9.2% 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 4.3% 0.2% 4.5% -0.9%
CAR 4-8 -18.3% 5.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 3.2% 0.2% 3.4% 2.7%

 

NFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
SF 7-4 16.4% 11.0 1.8% 35.3% 41.0% 7.1% 0.4% 5.1% 5.2% 85.2% 10.7% 96.0% 7.3%
SEA 6-5 6.5% 9.4 0.0% 4.2% 8.3% 2.3% 1.3% 27.4% 28.6% 14.8% 57.3% 72.0% -12.4%
LAR 3-8 -13.0% 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.8% 0.8% -0.2%
ARI 4-8 -25.4% 5.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -0.2%

 

AFC East

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
BUF 8-3 27.3% 12.1 25.2% 24.9% 4.9% 0.2% 23.7% 11.2% 5.5% 55.3% 40.4% 95.7% 0.8%
MIA 8-3 14.9% 11.1 9.4% 14.0% 5.0% 0.8% 28.6% 18.1% 12.0% 29.3% 58.7% 88.0% 2.9%
NYJ 7-4 11.1% 10.1 1.1% 4.0% 4.3% 1.2% 14.7% 18.4% 22.7% 10.6% 55.8% 66.4% 9.2%
NE 6-5 9.9% 9.1 0.4% 1.7% 2.3% 0.4% 9.1% 14.7% 18.1% 4.8% 41.9% 46.8% -21.8%

 

AFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 7-4 24.1% 11.1 3.8% 15.1% 38.1% 18.1% 2.4% 8.1% 6.5% 75.1% 17.0% 92.1% -4.8%
CIN 7-4 16.1% 10.2 3.5% 6.7% 10.3% 2.6% 15.1% 18.4% 15.8% 23.1% 49.3% 72.4% 15.9%
CLE 4-7 5.1% 7.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 1.0% 1.8% 2.9% 0.8%
PIT 4-7 -0.4% 6.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.8% 1.5% 0.4%

 

AFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
TEN 7-4 6.4% 10.3 0.6% 4.5% 21.5% 68.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 95.0% 0.4% 95.4% -2.6%
JAX 4-7 -5.6% 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 4.4% 1.0% 5.4% 3.2%
IND 4-7-1 -18.4% 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 1.0% -3.2%
HOU 1-9-1 -31.1% 2.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

AFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
KC 9-2 22.1% 13.3 55.9% 28.9% 13.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 99.8% 0.1% 99.9% 0.2%
LAC 6-5 -9.7% 8.8 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 9.8% 13.9% 0.1% 30.0% 30.2% -0.9%
LV 4-7 -7.0% 6.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.8% 0.0% 2.3% 2.3% 0.4%
DEN 3-8 -13.7% 5.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win
PHI 64.7% 43.7% 22.9%
KC 54.2% 30.6% 16.3%
BUF 43.9% 25.5% 14.7%
DAL 38.1% 21.4% 11.2%
BAL 32.4% 16.7% 9.2%
SF 40.1% 17.5% 8.1%
MIA 20.5% 8.9% 4.2%
CIN 15.4% 6.8% 3.2%
TB 15.7% 5.7% 2.1%
TEN 15.8% 5.2% 2.0%
NYJ 9.8% 3.7% 1.6%
SEA 11.5% 4.0% 1.5%
MIN 16.9% 4.2% 1.1%
NE 6.0% 2.1% 0.8%
WAS 6.0% 1.8% 0.6%
NYG 2.9% 0.6% 0.2%
ATL 2.1% 0.5% 0.2%
DET 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
LAC 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%

 

On the Clock

 

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2023 NFL draft. Traded picks are not accounted for.

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
HOU 80.6% 98.3%
CHI 8.2% 73.3%
DEN 3.8% 60.1%
CAR 1.5% 54.5%
ARI 1.1% 49.7%
LAR 3.3% 47.9%
NO 0.5% 31.2%
LV 0.4% 24.3%
JAX 0.4% 17.1%
IND 0.1% 13.0%
PIT 0.1% 8.5%
CLE 0.1% 6.5%
ATL 0.0% 6.3%
GB 0.0% 4.3%
DET 0.0% 3.8%
TB 0.0% 0.7%
LAC 0.0% 0.4%
SEA 0.0% 0.1%

 

 

 

Special Super Bowl Matchups

 

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible Super Bowls are listed.

Name Teams Chance
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 13.3%
LeSean McCoy Classic PHI vs BUF 11.3%
The Delaware Tollbooth Traffic Jam PHI vs BAL 7.2%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown DAL vs KC 6.5%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 5.5%
Super Bowl LIV Rematch SF vs KC 5.4%
Chris Berman's Dream SF vs BUF 4.4%
Ace Ventura Bowl PHI vs MIA 3.9%
Super Bowl V Sort-of Rematch DAL vs BAL 3.5%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch SF vs BAL 3.0%
A.J. Brown Reunion Special PHI vs TEN 2.3%
Super Bowl VI Rematch DAL vs MIA 1.9%
Super Bowl LV Rematch TB vs KC 1.8%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs NYJ 1.5%
Super Bowl XIX Rematch SF vs MIA 1.5%
2022 Preseason Favorites TB vs BUF 1.4%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 1.4%
Super Bowls XXIII-XVI Rematch SF vs CIN 1.2%
Frank Clark Reunion Special SEA vs KC 1.1%
Fifth Time's The Charm MIN vs BUF 1.0%
Battle of the (Old) Bays TB vs BAL 1.0%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 1.0%
Robert Saleh Reunion Special SF vs NYJ 0.7%
Purple Reign MIN vs BAL 0.7%
Florida Bowl (South) TB vs MIA 0.5%
Battle of the Dynasties DAL vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowl XXVI Rematch WAS vs BUF 0.4%
Super Bowl VIII Rematch MIN vs MIA 0.3%
Giovani Bernard Reunion Special TB vs CIN 0.3%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.3%
Julio Jones Reunion Special TB vs TEN 0.3%
Todd Bowles Reunion Special TB vs NYJ 0.2%
Super Bowl XXV Rematch NYG vs BUF 0.2%
Super Bowls VII-XVII Rematch WAS vs MIA 0.2%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special SEA vs NYJ 0.1%
Tom Brady Reunion Special TB vs NE 0.1%
Kyzir White Reunion Special PHI vs LAC 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.1%
Randy Moss Classic MIN vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.1%

 

 

Compiled by Mike Harris