Revised as of 10/19/20, through Week 6 (no MNF).
Compiled by Mike Harris
The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DAVE and DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.
- Dallas DAVE is adjusted to represent a projection with Andy Dalton as starting quarterback.
- Denver DAVE is adjusted for games not started by Drew Lock.
- New England DAVE is adjusted for games not started by Cam Newton.
- New York Jets DAVE is adjusted for games not started by Sam Darnold.
Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.
NFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 2-3 | -8.6% | 7.2 | 0.3% | 1.5% | 5.4% | 43.9% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 51.1% | 0.9% | 52.0% | 5.6% |
| PHI | 1-4-1 | -9.5% | 6.2 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 25.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 27.1% | 0.6% | 27.7% | -7.7% |
| NYG | 1-5 | -14.8% | 5.2 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 11.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 12.0% | 0.3% | 12.3% | 3.9% |
| WAS | 1-5 | -20.6% | 4.9 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 9.8% | 0.3% | 10.1% | -4.1% |
NFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 5-1 | -0.8% | 9.8 | 11.4% | 15.4% | 14.5% | 1.4% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 42.7% | 35.7% | 78.3% | 17.7% |
| GB | 4-1 | 4.7% | 9.9 | 11.9% | 16.3% | 19.9% | 2.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 50.4% | 27.6% | 78.0% | -9.5% |
| DET | 2-3 | -0.5% | 7.5 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 4.7% |
| MIN | 1-5 | -1.7% | 5.8 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | -10.7% |
NFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 4-2 | 23.5% | 10.4 | 14.6% | 20.4% | 18.3% | 2.2% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 55.5% | 27.9% | 83.4% | 16.8% |
| NO | 3-2 | 17.9% | 9.6 | 8.8% | 12.8% | 15.5% | 1.8% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 39.0% | 33.5% | 72.5% | -2.4% |
| CAR | 3-3 | -9.1% | 7.1 | 0.3% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 2.2% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 13.8% | 18.2% | -14.2% |
| ATL | 1-5 | -2.3% | 5.3 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
NFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 5-0 | 14.4% | 11.7 | 39.4% | 17.9% | 7.9% | 0.2% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 65.4% | 27.0% | 92.4% | -0.5% |
| LAR | 4-2 | 10.8% | 9.6 | 8.9% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 0.2% | 22.4% | 17.0% | 12.8% | 19.8% | 52.2% | 72.0% | -10.5% |
| ARI | 3-2 | -0.3% | 8.4 | 2.2% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 0.3% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 29.6% | 39.4% | -0.1% |
| SF | 3-3 | 4.6% | 7.9 | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 4.9% | 27.4% | 32.3% | 10.5% |
AFC East
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 4-1 | 3.1% | 9.7 | 5.8% | 10.8% | 17.1% | 30.5% | 1.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 64.1% | 11.0% | 75.1% | 0.0% |
| MIA | 3-3 | -3.1% | 8.0 | 0.5% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 15.5% | 19.1% | 34.6% | 13.7% |
| NE | 2-3 | 1.8% | 7.6 | 0.4% | 1.6% | 4.4% | 14.0% | 1.5% | 4.1% | 6.8% | 20.3% | 12.4% | 32.7% | -18.8% |
| NYJ | 0-6 | -23.4% | 3.3 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.7% |
AFC North
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 5-0 | 16.9% | 11.6 | 27.1% | 12.5% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 28.1% | 11.2% | 6.1% | 48.0% | 45.3% | 93.3% | 9.8% |
| BAL | 5-1 | 21.2% | 11.4 | 22.8% | 13.8% | 8.1% | 3.4% | 26.1% | 11.2% | 6.3% | 48.2% | 43.6% | 91.8% | 3.8% |
| CLE | 4-2 | -8.4% | 8.8 | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 11.1% | 16.4% | 14.3% | 3.8% | 41.8% | 45.6% | -13.9% |
| CIN | 1-4-1 | -18.7% | 5.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | -3.5% |
AFC South
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 5-0 | 7.7% | 10.8 | 16.0% | 19.2% | 19.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 62.7% | 24.7% | 87.4% | 7.6% |
| IND | 4-2 | 15.7% | 9.8 | 5.3% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 35.5% | 33.0% | 68.5% | 7.8% |
| HOU | 1-5 | -0.7% | 6.0 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 4.6% | 6.2% | -5.8% |
| JAX | 1-5 | -16.2% | 4.6 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.2% | -2.8% |
AFC West
| Team | W-L | DAVE | Mean Wins | #1 | #2 | #3 | #4 | #5 | #6 | #7 | DIV | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 4-1 | 22.2% | 11.0 | 19.9% | 25.4% | 18.6% | 12.2% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 76.0% | 15.6% | 91.6% | -2.4% |
| LV | 3-2 | -4.3% | 8.3 | 0.9% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 4.0% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 15.8% | 22.0% | 37.8% | -2.8% |
| LAC | 1-4 | -2.6% | 6.7 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 13.2% | 16.6% | -0.6% |
| DEN | 2-3 | -9.9% | 6.7 | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 10.3% | 15.1% | 8.6% |
Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team
- Reaching the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Conference Championship Game
- Winning the Super Bowl
| Team | Conf App | Conf Win | SB Win | 16-0 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 40.2% | 22.6% | 12.7% | 0.0% |
| TB | 36.9% | 22.0% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| SEA | 42.5% | 23.7% | 11.9% | 0.6% |
| BAL | 36.7% | 20.8% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| PIT | 35.6% | 19.1% | 10.0% | 0.6% |
| NO | 25.6% | 13.9% | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| TEN | 26.3% | 12.1% | 5.8% | 0.1% |
| IND | 19.7% | 9.7% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| LAR | 19.6% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| GB | 22.1% | 10.3% | 4.4% | 0.0% |
| CHI | 18.6% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| BUF | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
| ARI | 7.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| SF | 6.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| DAL | 7.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| NE | 5.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| LV | 5.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| MIA | 4.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| CLE | 4.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| DET | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| PHI | 3.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| LAC | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| CAR | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| DEN | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| NYG | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
ON THE CLOCK
This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
| Team | Top Pick | Top 5 Pick |
|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 38.5% | 83.1% |
| WAS | 14.4% | 58.4% |
| JAX | 11.9% | 56.5% |
| NYG | 9.0% | 47.5% |
| CIN | 5.6% | 40.6% |
| ATL | 4.9% | 36.8% |
| MIN | 2.9% | 27.3% |
| PHI | 2.7% | 25.2% |
| HOU | 2.4% | 23.8% |
| LAC | 2.8% | 21.7% |
| DAL | 1.6% | 15.8% |
| DEN | 1.1% | 15.1% |
| CAR | 0.4% | 10.1% |
| DET | 0.7% | 9.6% |
| NE | 0.5% | 7.2% |
| MIA | 0.2% | 5.7% |
| SF | 0.1% | 3.9% |
| LV | 0.2% | 3.8% |
| ARI | 0.1% | 3.4% |
| CLE | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| NO | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| BUF | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| GB | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| IND | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| LAR | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| CHI | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| TB | 0.0% | 0.1% |
Special Super Bowl Matchups
This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.
| Name | Teams | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Frank Clark Reunion Special | SEA vs KC | 5.5% |
| Super Bowl XL Rematch | SEA vs PIT | 4.5% |
| Willie Roaf Memories Bowl | NO vs KC | 3.2% |
| Jadaveon Clowney Reunion Special | SEA vs TEN | 2.9% |
| David Simon Crossover Bowl | NO vs BAL | 2.9% |
| Missouri Revenge Bowl | LAR vs KC | 2.3% |
| Super Bowl I Rematch | GB vs KC | 2.2% |
| Super Bowl XLV Rematch | GB vs PIT | 1.9% |
| Matt Nagy Reunion Special | CHI vs KC | 1.8% |
| Super Bowl XIV Rematch | LAR vs PIT | 1.8% |
| Super Bowl XLIV Rematch | NO vs IND | 1.4% |
| Matt LaFleur Reunion Special | GB vs TEN | 1.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch | LAR vs TEN | 1.1% |
| Super Bowl XLI Rematch | CHI vs IND | 0.8% |
| Super Bowl LIV Rematch | SF vs KC | 0.7% |
| Super Bowl XLIII Rematch | ARI vs PIT | 0.7% |
| Super Bowl XLVII Rematch | SF vs BAL | 0.6% |
| 1960 Double Dallas Showdown | DAL vs KC | 0.6% |
| Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch | DAL vs PIT | 0.5% |
| Super Bowl XLIX Rematch | SEA vs NE | 0.5% |
| Tom Brady Reunion Special | TB vs NE | 0.5% |
| Florida Bowl (South) | TB vs MIA | 0.4% |
| Keystone Bowl | PHI vs PIT | 0.3% |
| DeForest Buckner Reunion Special | SF vs IND | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl V Rematch | DAL vs IND | 0.3% |
| Andy Reid Reunion Special | PHI vs KC | 0.3% |
| Super Bowl XXXI Rematch | GB vs NE | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl II Rematch | GB vs LV | 0.2% |
| Chris Berman's Dream | SF vs BUF | 0.2% |
| Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch | LAR vs NE | 0.2% |
| Super Bowl XX Rematch | CHI vs NE | 0.2% |
| Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch | DAL vs BUF | 0.2% |
| Return of the Rams | LAR vs CLE | 0.1% |
| Khalil Mack Reunion Special | CHI vs LV | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch | SEA vs DEN | 0.1% |
| Frank Reich Reunion Special | PHI vs IND | 0.1% |
| Drew Brees Reunion Special | NO vs LAC | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl IV Rematch | MIN vs KC | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XXXV Rematch | NYG vs BAL | 0.1% |
| Fight for L.A. | LAR vs LAC | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl XIX Rematch | SF vs MIA | 0.1% |
| Super Bowl VI Rematch | DAL vs MIA | 0.1% |
| Sean McDermott Reunion Special | CAR vs BUF | 0.1% |
| Gulf Coast Challenge | NO vs HOU | 0.1% |
| Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special | SF vs NE | 0.1% |