2020 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 10/19/20, through Week 6 (no MNF).

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DAVE and DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV) or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

  • Dallas DAVE is adjusted to represent a projection with Andy Dalton as starting quarterback.
  • Denver DAVE is adjusted for games not started by Drew Lock.
  • New England DAVE is adjusted for games not started by Cam Newton.
  • New York Jets DAVE is adjusted for games not started by Sam Darnold.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

NFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
DAL 2-3 -8.6% 7.2 0.3% 1.5% 5.4% 43.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 51.1% 0.9% 52.0% 5.6%
PHI 1-4-1 -9.5% 6.2 0.0% 0.3% 1.7% 25.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 27.1% 0.6% 27.7% -7.7%
NYG 1-5 -14.8% 5.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 11.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 12.0% 0.3% 12.3% 3.9%
WAS 1-5 -20.6% 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 9.8% 0.3% 10.1% -4.1%

 

NFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
CHI 5-1 -0.8% 9.8 11.4% 15.4% 14.5% 1.4% 11.8% 12.6% 11.3% 42.7% 35.7% 78.3% 17.7%
GB 4-1 4.7% 9.9 11.9% 16.3% 19.9% 2.2% 8.7% 9.7% 9.2% 50.4% 27.6% 78.0% -9.5%
DET 2-3 -0.5% 7.5 0.5% 1.7% 2.7% 0.4% 3.1% 5.6% 8.3% 5.3% 17.1% 22.4% 4.7%
MIN 1-5 -1.7% 5.8 0.0% 0.4% 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 1.5% 2.7% 1.6% 4.7% 6.3% -10.7%

 

NFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
TB 4-2 23.5% 10.4 14.6% 20.4% 18.3% 2.2% 10.9% 9.3% 7.7% 55.5% 27.9% 83.4% 16.8%
NO 3-2 17.9% 9.6 8.8% 12.8% 15.5% 1.8% 11.7% 11.5% 10.3% 39.0% 33.5% 72.5% -2.4%
CAR 3-3 -9.1% 7.1 0.3% 1.0% 2.5% 0.5% 2.2% 4.5% 7.1% 4.4% 13.8% 18.2% -14.2%
ATL 1-5 -2.3% 5.3 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.6% 2.7% 0.5%

 

NFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
SEA 5-0 14.4% 11.7 39.4% 17.9% 7.9% 0.2% 13.5% 8.3% 5.2% 65.4% 27.0% 92.4% -0.5%
LAR 4-2 10.8% 9.6 8.9% 6.6% 4.1% 0.2% 22.4% 17.0% 12.8% 19.8% 52.2% 72.0% -10.5%
ARI 3-2 -0.3% 8.4 2.2% 3.7% 3.6% 0.3% 7.6% 10.0% 12.0% 9.8% 29.6% 39.4% -0.1%
SF 3-3 4.6% 7.9 1.5% 1.9% 1.4% 0.2% 7.4% 9.2% 10.7% 4.9% 27.4% 32.3% 10.5%

 

AFC East

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
BUF 4-1 3.1% 9.7 5.8% 10.8% 17.1% 30.5% 1.5% 3.9% 5.6% 64.1% 11.0% 75.1% 0.0%
MIA 3-3 -3.1% 8.0 0.5% 2.1% 4.3% 8.6% 2.9% 6.7% 9.4% 15.5% 19.1% 34.6% 13.7%
NE 2-3 1.8% 7.6 0.4% 1.6% 4.4% 14.0% 1.5% 4.1% 6.8% 20.3% 12.4% 32.7% -18.8%
NYJ 0-6 -23.4% 3.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -0.7%

 

AFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
PIT 5-0 16.9% 11.6 27.1% 12.5% 6.3% 2.1% 28.1% 11.2% 6.1% 48.0% 45.3% 93.3% 9.8%
BAL 5-1 21.2% 11.4 22.8% 13.8% 8.1% 3.4% 26.1% 11.2% 6.3% 48.2% 43.6% 91.8% 3.8%
CLE 4-2 -8.4% 8.8 1.1% 1.4% 0.9% 0.5% 11.1% 16.4% 14.3% 3.8% 41.8% 45.6% -13.9%
CIN 1-4-1 -18.7% 5.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 1.5% 0.1% 2.5% 2.6% -3.5%

 

AFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
TEN 5-0 7.7% 10.8 16.0% 19.2% 19.6% 7.9% 7.7% 9.5% 7.5% 62.7% 24.7% 87.4% 7.6%
IND 4-2 15.7% 9.8 5.3% 8.8% 12.4% 9.0% 9.8% 11.7% 11.5% 35.5% 33.0% 68.5% 7.8%
HOU 1-5 -0.7% 6.0 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.2% 1.4% 3.0% 1.6% 4.6% 6.2% -5.8%
JAX 1-5 -16.2% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.9% 1.2% -2.8%

 

AFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 DIV WC TOT CHANGE
KC 4-1 22.2% 11.0 19.9% 25.4% 18.6% 12.2% 4.4% 6.4% 4.8% 76.0% 15.6% 91.6% -2.4%
LV 3-2 -4.3% 8.3 0.9% 3.2% 4.9% 6.9% 4.0% 8.1% 9.9% 15.8% 22.0% 37.8% -2.8%
LAC 1-4 -2.6% 6.7 0.1% 0.6% 1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 4.8% 6.8% 3.4% 13.2% 16.6% -0.6%
DEN 2-3 -9.9% 6.7 0.1% 0.7% 1.8% 2.2% 0.8% 3.5% 5.9% 4.8% 10.3% 15.1% 8.6%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 16-0
KC 40.2% 22.6% 12.7% 0.0%
TB 36.9% 22.0% 12.2% 0.0%
SEA 42.5% 23.7% 11.9% 0.6%
BAL 36.7% 20.8% 11.5% 0.0%
PIT 35.6% 19.1% 10.0% 0.6%
NO 25.6% 13.9% 7.1% 0.0%
TEN 26.3% 12.1% 5.8% 0.1%
IND 19.7% 9.7% 5.2% 0.0%
LAR 19.6% 9.5% 4.5% 0.0%
GB 22.1% 10.3% 4.4% 0.0%
CHI 18.6% 7.7% 3.2% 0.0%
BUF 17.0% 7.1% 3.1% 0.0%
ARI 7.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.0%
SF 6.5% 2.9% 1.3% 0.0%
DAL 7.8% 2.5% 0.9% 0.0%
NE 5.6% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0%
LV 5.2% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0%
MIA 4.8% 1.7% 0.7% 0.0%
CLE 4.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0%
DET 3.6% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0%
PHI 3.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0%
LAC 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0%
CAR 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0%
DEN 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
NYG 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

 

ON THE CLOCK

 

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

 

 

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
NYJ 38.5% 83.1%
WAS 14.4% 58.4%
JAX 11.9% 56.5%
NYG 9.0% 47.5%
CIN 5.6% 40.6%
ATL 4.9% 36.8%
MIN 2.9% 27.3%
PHI 2.7% 25.2%
HOU 2.4% 23.8%
LAC 2.8% 21.7%
DAL 1.6% 15.8%
DEN 1.1% 15.1%
CAR 0.4% 10.1%
DET 0.7% 9.6%
NE 0.5% 7.2%
MIA 0.2% 5.7%
SF 0.1% 3.9%
LV 0.2% 3.8%
ARI 0.1% 3.4%
CLE 0.0% 1.9%
NO 0.0% 0.6%
BUF 0.0% 0.5%
GB 0.0% 0.4%
IND 0.0% 0.4%
LAR 0.0% 0.2%
CHI 0.0% 0.2%
TB 0.0% 0.1%

 

 

 

Special Super Bowl Matchups

 

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.

 

 

Name Teams Chance
Frank Clark Reunion Special SEA vs KC 5.5%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 4.5%
Willie Roaf Memories Bowl NO vs KC 3.2%
Jadaveon Clowney Reunion Special SEA vs TEN 2.9%
David Simon Crossover Bowl NO vs BAL 2.9%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 2.3%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 2.2%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 1.9%
Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 1.8%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 1.8%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 1.4%
Matt LaFleur Reunion Special GB vs TEN 1.1%
Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch LAR vs TEN 1.1%
Super Bowl XLI Rematch CHI vs IND 0.8%
Super Bowl LIV Rematch SF vs KC 0.7%
Super Bowl XLIII Rematch ARI vs PIT 0.7%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch SF vs BAL 0.6%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown DAL vs KC 0.6%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.5%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.5%
Tom Brady Reunion Special TB vs NE 0.5%
Florida Bowl (South) TB vs MIA 0.4%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.3%
DeForest Buckner Reunion Special SF vs IND 0.3%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.3%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.3%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 0.2%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs LV 0.2%
Chris Berman's Dream SF vs BUF 0.2%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch LAR vs NE 0.2%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 0.2%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.2%
Return of the Rams LAR vs CLE 0.1%
Khalil Mack Reunion Special CHI vs LV 0.1%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 0.1%
Frank Reich Reunion Special PHI vs IND 0.1%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LAC 0.1%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.1%
Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 0.1%
Super Bowl XIX Rematch SF vs MIA 0.1%
Super Bowl VI Rematch DAL vs MIA 0.1%
Sean McDermott Reunion Special CAR vs BUF 0.1%
Gulf Coast Challenge NO vs HOU 0.1%
Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special SF vs NE 0.1%