Regular season totals, through Week 17
Revised as of 7/26/2012
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 1999, measured by ourproprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system thatbreaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance toa league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average.(Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.
As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST YEAR represents 1998 rank.
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST YEAR |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L | OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | STL | 34.0% | 20 | 41.0% | 13-3 | 17.7% | 4 | -13.5% | 3 | 2.8% | 9 |
| 2 | JAC | 27.1% | 10 | 34.9% | 14-2 | 11.4% | 9 | -9.4% | 6 | 6.4% | 2 |
| 3 | OAK | 21.2% | 27 | 15.0% | 8-8 | 20.5% | 2 | -5.6% | 11 | -4.9% | 27 |
| 4 | KC | 17.6% | 18 | 16.0% | 9-7 | 14.0% | 6 | -7.5% | 9 | -4.0% | 26 |
| 5 | TEN | 15.9% | 13 | 20.8% | 13-3 | 17.9% | 3 | 4.2% | 20 | 2.2% | 10 |
| 6 | BUF | 14.9% | 6 | 14.6% | 11-5 | 12.7% | 7 | -4.9% | 12 | -2.7% | 24 |
| 7 | WAS | 12.8% | 28 | 20.7% | 10-6 | 22.4% | 1 | 7.1% | 24 | -2.4% | 23 |
| 8 | TB | 12.3% | 12 | 5.9% | 11-5 | -10.2% | 24 | -19.4% | 2 | 3.0% | 8 |
| 9 | DAL | 11.4% | 9 | 14.9% | 8-8 | 5.0% | 12 | -4.6% | 13 | 1.8% | 12 |
| 10 | MIN | 10.5% | 5 | 7.5% | 10-6 | 11.7% | 8 | 6.0% | 23 | 4.8% | 3 |
| 11 | BAL | 9.1% | 15 | 10.8% | 8-8 | -13.6% | 27 | -20.8% | 1 | 1.9% | 11 |
| 12 | DEN | 8.6% | 1 | 2.2% | 6-10 | 3.4% | 14 | -6.9% | 10 | -1.6% | 22 |
| 13 | SEA | 8.6% | 14 | 3.5% | 9-7 | -3.0% | 17 | -8.1% | 8 | 3.5% | 6 |
| 14 | NYJ | 8.2% | 2 | 6.6% | 8-8 | 3.8% | 13 | -3.0% | 14 | 1.4% | 14 |
| 15 | GB | 7.1% | 8 | 6.3% | 8-8 | 7.9% | 11 | -0.2% | 18 | -1.0% | 19 |
| 16 | MIA | 6.7% | 4 | 4.8% | 9-7 | -6.9% | 21 | -9.4% | 5 | 4.2% | 4 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST YEAR |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L | OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | IND | 4.0% | 26 | 7.7% | 13-3 | 14.2% | 5 | 9.1% | 26 | -1.1% | 21 |
| 18 | DET | 3.0% | 21 | 3.8% | 8-8 | -0.6% | 15 | -0.4% | 17 | 3.1% | 7 |
| 19 | CAR | 1.5% | 22 | 2.8% | 8-8 | 10.3% | 10 | 16.0% | 28 | 7.2% | 1 |
| 20 | PIT | 1.4% | 16 | 4.2% | 6-10 | -5.0% | 19 | -2.4% | 15 | 4.0% | 5 |
| 21 | NE | -3.5% | 11 | -1.8% | 8-8 | -7.5% | 22 | -2.4% | 16 | 1.6% | 13 |
| 22 | NYG | -9.1% | 17 | -11.7% | 7-9 | -6.8% | 20 | 1.3% | 19 | -1.1% | 20 |
| 23 | SD | -9.4% | 23 | -12.5% | 8-8 | -18.5% | 28 | -8.2% | 7 | 0.8% | 16 |
| 24 | PHI | -11.0% | 30 | -14.4% | 5-11 | -22.9% | 29 | -11.1% | 4 | 0.9% | 15 |
| 25 | CHI | -11.9% | 19 | -18.4% | 6-10 | -3.9% | 18 | 4.9% | 21 | -3.1% | 25 |
| 26 | ATL | -19.2% | 7 | -22.1% | 5-11 | -10.5% | 25 | 9.4% | 27 | 0.7% | 17 |
| 27 | ARI | -28.1% | 25 | -28.4% | 6-10 | -22.9% | 30 | 5.0% | 22 | -0.1% | 18 |
| 28 | SF | -29.5% | 3 | -29.2% | 4-12 | -1.7% | 16 | 20.4% | 30 | -7.3% | 31 |
| 29 | CIN | -32.7% | 29 | -29.8% | 4-12 | -9.7% | 23 | 16.6% | 29 | -6.4% | 28 |
| 30 | CLE | -39.7% | X | -40.4% | 2-14 | -10.8% | 26 | 22.2% | 31 | -6.7% | 29 |
| 31 | NO | -40.3% | 24 | -36.4% | 3-13 | -24.3% | 31 | 8.8% | 25 | -7.1% | 30 |
- ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index"that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles.
- WEIGHTED DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
- 1999 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#31, most negative).
- PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed.
- VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) toleast consistent (#31, highest variance).
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
W-L | ESTIM. WINS |
RANK | WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK | 1999 SCHED |
RANK | PYTH WINS |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 1 | STL | 34.0% | 13-3 | 12.2 | 2 | 28.2% | 1 | -15.7% | 31 | 14.0 | 1 | 9.6% | 3 |
| 2 | JAC | 27.1% | 14-2 | 12.2 | 1 | 22.3% | 3 | -10.2% | 30 | 12.9 | 2 | 15.8% | 18 |
| 3 | OAK | 21.2% | 8-8 | 11.1 | 4 | 22.8% | 2 | 7.2% | 2 | 9.7 | 9 | 12.5% | 11 |
| 4 | KC | 17.6% | 9-7 | 9.9 | 7 | 15.5% | 8 | 5.2% | 5 | 9.9 | 6 | 11.6% | 9 |
| 5 | TEN | 15.9% | 13-3 | 11.2 | 3 | 19.4% | 5 | -6.0% | 27 | 9.9 | 7 | 18.1% | 23 |
| 6 | BUF | 14.9% | 11-5 | 9.8 | 8 | 15.8% | 7 | 2.2% | 11 | 10.9 | 3 | 19.1% | 24 |
| 7 | WAS | 12.8% | 10-6 | 9.3 | 11 | 3.3% | 17 | -4.8% | 26 | 9.6 | 10 | 10.8% | 7 |
| 8 | TB | 12.3% | 11-5 | 10.3 | 5 | 12.5% | 11 | -0.4% | 19 | 9.2 | 12 | 20.4% | 27 |
| 9 | DAL | 11.4% | 8-8 | 9.0 | 14 | 15.4% | 9 | -6.1% | 28 | 10.3 | 5 | 11.4% | 8 |
| 10 | MIN | 10.5% | 10-6 | 9.3 | 12 | 20.6% | 4 | 0.8% | 15 | 9.7 | 8 | 9.8% | 4 |
| 11 | BAL | 9.1% | 8-8 | 9.9 | 6 | 12.0% | 12 | -3.3% | 25 | 9.5 | 11 | 13.6% | 14 |
| 12 | DEN | 8.6% | 6-10 | 9.7 | 9 | 14.0% | 10 | 9.2% | 1 | 7.9 | 20 | 13.6% | 15 |
| 13 | SEA | 8.6% | 9-7 | 8.8 | 15 | 8.8% | 13 | 4.9% | 7 | 9.2 | 13 | 14.0% | 16 |
| 14 | NYJ | 8.2% | 8-8 | 9.2 | 13 | 16.9% | 6 | 6.1% | 4 | 8.0 | 18 | 10.4% | 6 |
| 15 | GB | 7.1% | 8-8 | 8.2 | 17 | 1.7% | 19 | 0.8% | 16 | 8.5 | 16 | 23.9% | 29 |
| 16 | MIA | 6.7% | 9-7 | 8.5 | 16 | 4.0% | 16 | 4.3% | 8 | 7.7 | 21 | 17.3% | 21 |
| TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
W-L | ESTIM. WINS |
RANK | WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK | 1999 SCHED |
RANK | PYTH WINS |
RANK | VAR. | RANK | |
| 17 | IND | 4.0% | 13-3 | 9.5 | 10 | 4.5% | 15 | -0.5% | 20 | 10.3 | 4 | 7.8% | 1 |
| 18 | DET | 3.0% | 8-8 | 8.2 | 18 | 2.4% | 18 | 5.1% | 6 | 8.0 | 17 | 16.2% | 20 |
| 19 | CAR | 1.5% | 8-8 | 7.4 | 21 | 4.5% | 14 | -8.9% | 29 | 9.0 | 14 | 17.9% | 22 |
| 20 | PIT | 1.4% | 6-10 | 7.1 | 22 | -2.3% | 21 | -2.9% | 24 | 7.9 | 19 | 24.6% | 30 |
| 21 | NE | -3.5% | 8-8 | 7.7 | 19 | -11.4% | 24 | 1.6% | 14 | 8.5 | 15 | 10.2% | 5 |
| 22 | NYG | -9.1% | 7-9 | 5.9 | 26 | -7.1% | 22 | 0.7% | 17 | 6.3 | 23 | 13.3% | 13 |
| 23 | SD | -9.4% | 8-8 | 6.2 | 23 | -10.0% | 23 | 3.7% | 9 | 6.5 | 22 | 12.4% | 10 |
| 24 | PHI | -11.0% | 5-11 | 7.5 | 20 | -2.3% | 20 | 2.0% | 12 | 5.5 | 25 | 19.7% | 25 |
| 25 | CHI | -11.9% | 6-10 | 6.2 | 24 | -12.7% | 25 | 6.2% | 3 | 5.9 | 24 | 7.9% | 2 |
| 26 | ATL | -19.2% | 5-11 | 5.9 | 25 | -15.7% | 26 | -0.6% | 21 | 5.3 | 26 | 13.1% | 12 |
| 27 | ARI | -28.1% | 6-10 | 3.9 | 29 | -24.4% | 28 | -0.2% | 18 | 4.1 | 27 | 14.9% | 17 |
| 28 | SF | -29.5% | 4-12 | 4.3 | 28 | -30.9% | 29 | -2.1% | 23 | 4.1 | 28 | 27.1% | 31 |
| 29 | CIN | -32.7% | 4-12 | 4.8 | 27 | -24.0% | 27 | 2.3% | 10 | 3.7 | 29 | 15.9% | 19 |
| 30 | CLE | -39.7% | 2-14 | 2.3 | 30 | -34.6% | 30 | 1.8% | 13 | 2.5 | 31 | 19.9% | 26 |
| 31 | NO | -40.3% | 3-13 | 2.1 | 31 | -50.4% | 31 | -0.7% | 22 | 3.5 | 30 | 21.0% | 28 |