Our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.) Only the regular season is included.
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.
As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
For 2021 only: DAVE, or DVOA Adjusted for Variation Early, is a formula which combines our preseason forecast with current weighted DVOA to get a more accurate projection of how a team will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 7% preseason forecast and 93% actual performance for teams with 12 games, and 16% preseason forecast with 84% actual performance for teams with 11 games.
UNADJUSTED TOTAL VOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
WEIGHTED DVOA is adjusted so that earlier games in the season become gradually less important. It better reflects how the team was playing at the end of the season.
ESTIMATED WINSuses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road. For the current season, the listing of schedule is split into past and future schedules.
VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent a projection of the team's expected wins based solely on points scored and allowed. (Not listed in 2021.)
Note for 1987: strikebreaker games (Weeks 4-6) are not included.