Regular season totals, through Week 8
Revised as of 11/3/2020
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2020, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. Opponent adjustments are currently at 80% strength and will increase each week until they hit 100% after Week 10. SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season.
DAVE combines our preseason forecast with games played so far to get a more accurate projection of how teams will play the rest of the season. DAVE is currently 50% preseason forecast for teams with seven games played and 45% preseason forecast for teams with eight games played.
As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE.
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
LAST WEEK |
TOTAL DAVE |
RANK | W-L | OFF. DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEF. DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 39.3% | 1 | 26.6% | 1 | 6-2 | 13.1% | 6 | -25.4% | 1 | 0.8% | 13 |
| 2 | PIT | 30.2% | 3 | 19.9% | 4 | 7-0 | 3.8% | 14 | -21.8% | 2 | 4.6% | 7 |
| 3 | BAL | 27.8% | 2 | 20.3% | 3 | 5-2 | -1.0% | 20 | -16.5% | 5 | 12.3% | 1 |
| 4 | KC | 26.6% | 4 | 24.9% | 2 | 7-1 | 24.6% | 1 | -3.5% | 13 | -1.6% | 23 |
| 5 | IND | 23.6% | 5 | 16.7% | 6 | 5-2 | -1.4% | 22 | -19.6% | 3 | 5.3% | 4 |
| 6 | SEA | 22.8% | 9 | 15.9% | 7 | 6-1 | 22.7% | 3 | 5.9% | 21 | 6.1% | 3 |
| 7 | NO | 20.4% | 6 | 18.3% | 5 | 5-2 | 9.3% | 7 | -6.4% | 8 | 4.7% | 5 |
| 8 | GB | 14.8% | 10 | 8.7% | 9 | 5-2 | 22.9% | 2 | 9.8% | 29 | 1.7% | 10 |
| 9 | MIA | 14.1% | 13 | -1.3% | 15 | 4-3 | -1.0% | 21 | -4.7% | 11 | 10.5% | 2 |
| 10 | LAR | 13.5% | 7 | 11.1% | 8 | 5-3 | 14.3% | 5 | -6.4% | 9 | -7.3% | 30 |
| 11 | ARI | 13.2% | 11 | 7.2% | 11 | 5-2 | 7.3% | 10 | -5.4% | 10 | 0.5% | 15 |
| 12 | SF | 12.2% | 8 | 6.6% | 12 | 4-4 | 7.7% | 9 | -3.7% | 12 | 0.8% | 14 |
| 13 | TEN | 8.3% | 12 | 7.3% | 10 | 5-2 | 21.8% | 4 | 5.9% | 20 | -7.7% | 31 |
| 14 | BUF | 2.1% | 14 | 3.4% | 13 | 6-2 | 8.0% | 8 | 7.3% | 23 | 1.4% | 11 |
| 15 | MIN | -1.2% | 18 | -1.3% | 16 | 2-5 | 3.1% | 16 | 2.9% | 16 | -1.5% | 22 |
| 16 | CAR | -1.4% | 16 | -6.5% | 21 | 3-5 | 6.7% | 12 | 8.2% | 25 | 0.1% | 17 |
| 17 | DET | -2.2% | 15 | 0.0% | 14 | 3-4 | 0.8% | 18 | 4.4% | 17 | 1.3% | 12 |
| 18 | CHI | -3.7% | 17 | -2.9% | 18 | 5-3 | -17.0% | 27 | -14.8% | 6 | -1.5% | 21 |
| 19 | LAC | -4.1% | 19 | -2.6% | 17 | 2-5 | 7.1% | 11 | 1.5% | 15 | -9.7% | 32 |
| 20 | HOU | -7.3% | 20 | -4.5% | 20 | 1-6 | 3.2% | 15 | 9.7% | 28 | -0.8% | 19 |
| 21 | WAS | -8.6% | 21 | -13.5% | 27 | 2-5 | -22.3% | 31 | -17.0% | 4 | -3.3% | 25 |
| 22 | CLE | -9.9% | 22 | -6.5% | 22 | 5-3 | 1.0% | 17 | 5.2% | 19 | -5.7% | 29 |
| 23 | ATL | -10.8% | 24 | -4.0% | 19 | 2-6 | -3.3% | 23 | 6.9% | 22 | -0.7% | 18 |
| 24 | LV | -12.3% | 23 | -8.2% | 24 | 4-3 | 4.7% | 13 | 15.1% | 31 | -1.8% | 24 |
| 25 | DEN | -18.7% | 27 | -13.6% | 28 | 3-4 | -21.2% | 30 | -6.9% | 7 | -4.4% | 26 |
| 26 | NE | -18.7% | 26 | -11.1% | 25 | 2-5 | -12.5% | 24 | 9.3% | 27 | 3.1% | 8 |
| 27 | NYG | -18.9% | 29 | -12.5% | 26 | 1-7 | -18.6% | 28 | 4.9% | 18 | 4.7% | 6 |
| 28 | PHI | -19.1% | 25 | -7.2% | 23 | 3-4-1 | -20.5% | 29 | -2.4% | 14 | -1.0% | 20 |
| 29 | CIN | -22.2% | 30 | -18.5% | 30 | 2-5-1 | -13.3% | 25 | 11.1% | 30 | 2.2% | 9 |
| 30 | DAL | -23.5% | 31 | -17.2% | 29 | 2-6 | -15.7% | 26 | 8.2% | 24 | 0.3% | 16 |
| 31 | JAX | -25.3% | 28 | -19.0% | 31 | 1-6 | -0.7% | 19 | 19.9% | 32 | -4.7% | 27 |
| 32 | NYJ | -45.2% | 32 | -30.5% | 32 | 0-8 | -31.5% | 32 | 8.5% | 26 | -5.1% | 28 |
- NON-ADJUSTED TOTAL DVOA does not include the adjustments for opponent strength or the adjustments for weather and altitude in special teams, and only penalizes offenses for lost fumbles rather than all fumbles.
- ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index" that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of recovering fumbles. Teams that have had their bye week are projected as if they had played one game per week.
- PAST SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
- FUTURE SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents still left to play this season, ranked from hardest schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). It is not adjusted for which games are home or road.
- VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, lowest variance) to least consistent (#32, highest variance).
| RK | TEAM | TOTAL DVOA |
W-L | NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK | PAST SCHED |
RANK | FUTURE SCHED |
RANK | VAR. | RANK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TB | 39.3% | 6-2 | 42.3% | 7.1 | 1 | -3.0% | 23 | 4.2% | 10 | 11.5% | 18 |
| 2 | PIT | 30.2% | 7-0 | 38.4% | 6.6 | 2 | -5.4% | 25 | -6.5% | 29 | 8.0% | 15 |
| 3 | BAL | 27.8% | 5-2 | 32.1% | 4.7 | 11 | -1.5% | 19 | -6.3% | 28 | 17.2% | 24 |
| 4 | KC | 26.6% | 7-1 | 33.1% | 6.4 | 3 | -9.5% | 31 | 3.3% | 12 | 6.2% | 10 |
| 5 | IND | 23.6% | 5-2 | 33.4% | 5.4 | 6 | -15.7% | 32 | 4.1% | 11 | 11.7% | 21 |
| 6 | SEA | 22.8% | 6-1 | 27.0% | 6.2 | 4 | -2.1% | 20 | -4.1% | 26 | 4.0% | 3 |
| 7 | NO | 20.4% | 5-2 | 22.1% | 5.9 | 5 | 4.3% | 11 | 1.8% | 15 | 1.9% | 2 |
| 8 | GB | 14.8% | 5-2 | 12.2% | 5.2 | 8 | 5.3% | 7 | -1.3% | 20 | 16.0% | 23 |
| 9 | MIA | 14.1% | 4-3 | 20.8% | 4.3 | 15 | -5.5% | 26 | -8.8% | 32 | 21.6% | 29 |
| 10 | LAR | 13.5% | 5-3 | 21.2% | 4.8 | 10 | -5.7% | 27 | 7.5% | 4 | 18.5% | 26 |
| 11 | ARI | 13.2% | 5-2 | 21.8% | 5.2 | 7 | -6.6% | 29 | 2.4% | 14 | 7.9% | 14 |
| 12 | SF | 12.2% | 4-4 | 14.5% | 4.6 | 12 | -4.8% | 24 | 6.8% | 5 | 26.5% | 31 |
| 13 | TEN | 8.3% | 5-2 | 11.3% | 4.5 | 13 | -6.1% | 28 | 4.6% | 8 | 7.1% | 12 |
| 14 | BUF | 2.1% | 6-2 | 5.3% | 4.8 | 9 | -7.4% | 30 | 6.4% | 6 | 12.7% | 22 |
| 15 | MIN | -1.2% | 2-5 | -6.9% | 4.4 | 14 | 9.4% | 2 | -0.3% | 19 | 11.4% | 17 |
| 16 | CAR | -1.4% | 3-5 | -3.5% | 3.3 | 19 | 3.9% | 12 | 8.8% | 3 | 5.7% | 9 |
| 17 | DET | -2.2% | 3-4 | -4.5% | 3.9 | 17 | 4.6% | 10 | 4.3% | 9 | 5.7% | 7 |
| 18 | CHI | -3.7% | 5-3 | -3.0% | 3.4 | 18 | 7.9% | 5 | 0.1% | 17 | 4.1% | 4 |
| 19 | LAC | -4.1% | 2-5 | -3.7% | 3.0 | 23 | 2.7% | 13 | -8.4% | 31 | 1.5% | 1 |
| 20 | HOU | -7.3% | 1-6 | -9.1% | 2.9 | 24 | 11.6% | 1 | -3.0% | 23 | 6.6% | 11 |
| 21 | WAS | -8.6% | 2-5 | -10.4% | 3.2 | 20 | -2.4% | 22 | -2.4% | 22 | 18.4% | 25 |
| 22 | CLE | -9.9% | 5-3 | -4.2% | 4.0 | 16 | -0.9% | 17 | -6.2% | 27 | 31.4% | 32 |
| 23 | ATL | -10.8% | 2-6 | -5.4% | 3.2 | 21 | 0.5% | 16 | 13.9% | 1 | 4.7% | 6 |
| 24 | LV | -12.3% | 4-3 | -17.9% | 3.0 | 22 | 8.3% | 4 | -4.1% | 25 | 7.8% | 13 |
| 25 | DEN | -18.7% | 3-4 | -21.2% | 2.6 | 25 | 5.2% | 8 | 2.5% | 13 | 11.6% | 20 |
| 26 | NE | -18.7% | 2-5 | -17.5% | 2.3 | 28 | 6.7% | 6 | -3.5% | 24 | 21.8% | 30 |
| 27 | NYG | -18.9% | 1-7 | -26.0% | 2.5 | 26 | 5.0% | 9 | -2.4% | 21 | 8.8% | 16 |
| 28 | PHI | -19.1% | 3-4-1 | -14.9% | 2.3 | 29 | 1.3% | 15 | 1.3% | 16 | 4.3% | 5 |
| 29 | CIN | -22.2% | 2-5-1 | -22.2% | 2.2 | 30 | -1.1% | 18 | 5.5% | 7 | 5.7% | 8 |
| 30 | DAL | -23.5% | 2-6 | -24.6% | 2.4 | 27 | -2.2% | 21 | 0.0% | 18 | 19.6% | 28 |
| 31 | JAX | -25.3% | 1-6 | -25.5% | 1.7 | 31 | 1.4% | 14 | 9.2% | 2 | 18.6% | 27 |
| 32 | NYJ | -45.2% | 0-8 | -53.9% | 0.1 | 32 | 9.4% | 3 | -7.3% | 30 | 11.6% | 19 |