Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 12/17/18, through Week 15 (no MNF).

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 40,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 40,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

Washington, Philadelphia, and Cincinnati ratings are penalized due to injuries to starting quarterbacks (and in Washington's case, backup quarterback).

These simulations do not account for the possibility of teams resting starters in Week 17 after clinching specific playoff seeding. 

NFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DAL 8-6 -3.4% 9.0 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 87.4% 0.0% 1.1% 91.5% 0.0% 1.1% 92.6% -6.1%
PHI 7-7 -10.4% 8.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 1.3% 19.3% 6.5% 0.0% 20.5% 27.1% 14.4%
WAS 7-7 -36.8% 7.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.8% 11.5% 2.0% 0.0% 12.3% 14.3% 5.7%
NYG 5-9 4.4% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.4%

NFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CHI 10-4 20.7% 11.2 2.8% 17.8% 75.3% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 20.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.1%
MIN 7-6-1 10.1% 8.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.0% 41.8% 0.0% 0.0% 63.8% 63.8% 7.3%
GB 5-8-1 7.0% 6.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6.6%
DET 5-9 -13.8% 5.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.1%

NFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NO 11-2 29.6% 13.1 80.7% 11.9% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 92.6% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
CAR 6-7 -0.5% 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 6.2% -7.6%
ATL 5-9 -3.4% 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
TB 5-9 -15.0% 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.6%

NFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
LAR 11-3 17.3% 12.6 16.5% 70.3% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 86.8% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
SEA 8-6 7.0% 9.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 75.6% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 96.0% 96.0% -3.2%
SF 4-10 -18.3% 4.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ARI 3-11 -43.3% 3.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 9-5 14.5% 10.5 0.1% 41.1% 39.5% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 98.8% 41.2% 0.0% 98.9% 0.5%
MIA 7-7 -19.4% 7.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% 0.0% 2.9% 1.2% 0.0% 2.9% 4.0% -15.6%
BUF 5-9 -16.1% 5.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NYJ 4-10 -20.3% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 8-5-1 13.7% 9.6 0.0% 2.0% 14.1% 58.9% 0.0% 3.8% 75.0% 2.0% 3.8% 78.8% 8.4%
BAL 8-6 15.0% 9.0 0.0% 1.0% 7.7% 16.3% 0.0% 9.1% 25.0% 1.0% 9.1% 34.1% -15.0%
CLE 6-7-1 0.1% 7.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.5%
CIN 6-8 -23.5% 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.2%

AFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
HOU 10-4 4.6% 11.2 2.0% 52.5% 31.3% 1.5% 0.0% 12.6% 87.2% 54.4% 12.6% 99.8% 2.6%
TEN 8-6 1.0% 9.3 0.0% 1.5% 3.5% 1.8% 0.0% 31.7% 6.9% 1.5% 31.7% 38.6% 18.9%
IND 8-6 15.7% 9.2 0.0% 0.2% 3.4% 2.3% 0.0% 39.9% 6.0% 0.2% 39.9% 45.9% 7.3%
JAX 4-10 -6.8% 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
KC 11-3 31.6% 12.5 80.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 18.1% 0.0% 81.9% 81.7% 18.1% 100.0% 0.0%
LAC 11-3 28.0% 12.2 17.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 81.9% 0.0% 18.1% 18.1% 81.9% 100.0% 0.3%
DEN 6-8 15.6% 7.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -6.7%
OAK 3-11 -21.8% 3.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
NO 73.5%47.6%25.6%
KC 62.4%43.0%24.1%
LAR 58.2%24.9%11.8%
LAC 29.9%17.0%9.0%
CHI 35.4%16.4%7.9%
NE 39.3%15.1%6.7%
HOU 35.6%11.8%4.7%
PIT 14.7%6.0%2.7%
SEA 12.8%4.6%1.8%
IND 6.9%3.0%1.4%
MIN 7.8%3.0%1.3%
BAL 6.9%2.8%1.2%
DAL 10.3%2.9%1.0%
TEN 4.1%1.4%0.5%
PHI 1.4%0.4%0.1%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
ARI 74.5% 99.6%
OAK 17.5% 97.6%
SF 3.6% 87.5%
NYJ 4.3% 84.7%
JAX 0.1% 39.5%
DET 0.0% 33.1%
ATL 0.0% 27.0%
TB 0.0% 16.5%
BUF 0.0% 7.1%
NYG 0.0% 5.8%
GB 0.0% 1.4%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Willie Roaf Memories Bowl NO vs KC 20.6%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 10.6%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LAC 8.0%
GOAT Quarterback Battle NO vs NE 7.1%
Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 7.0%
Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 4.3%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LAR vs NE 3.8%
Back in Black NO vs PIT 2.9%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 2.5%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 1.5%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 1.4%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 1.3%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.7%
Randy Moss Memories Bowl MIN vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowl XLI Rematch CHI vs IND 0.5%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.4%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.3%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.2%
2012 Draft Showdown SEA vs IND 0.1%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 0.1%