Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 10/16/18, through Week 6.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

Quarterback changes are already accounted for in DAVE ratings, but Seattle's DAVE rating has been penalized 2.7% for the loss of Earl Thomas.

NFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
WAS 3-2 -4.8% 8.4 2.1% 6.5% 10.0% 14.5% 5.8% 8.1% 33.1% 8.6% 13.9% 47.0% 2.6%
DAL 3-3 -1.1% 8.1 1.0% 5.0% 8.7% 17.1% 3.0% 5.8% 31.8% 6.1% 8.8% 40.6% 8.9%
PHI 3-3 2.8% 8.0 1.2% 4.5% 8.7% 18.2% 2.8% 5.3% 32.6% 5.7% 8.2% 40.7% 8.0%
NYG 1-5 -12.1% 5.5 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% 1.9% 0.4% 1.1% 2.6% 0.1% 1.5% 4.1% -7.8%

NFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CHI 3-2 12.3% 9.8 9.8% 19.4% 16.5% 8.8% 11.1% 9.1% 54.5% 29.2% 20.2% 74.7% -5.5%
GB 3-2-1 6.5% 8.6 1.7% 6.8% 8.7% 5.8% 12.2% 12.4% 23.0% 8.5% 24.6% 47.6% -3.3%
MIN 3-2-1 -1.4% 8.2 1.0% 5.3% 6.8% 5.1% 8.7% 10.1% 18.3% 6.4% 18.8% 37.1% 4.1%
DET 2-3 -15.7% 6.3 0.2% 0.7% 1.4% 2.0% 1.8% 2.9% 4.2% 0.8% 4.7% 8.9% -0.5%

NFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NO 4-1 15.5% 10.2 13.3% 22.6% 17.3% 11.1% 8.6% 6.9% 64.3% 35.9% 15.5% 79.8% -4.6%
CAR 3-2 4.1% 8.7 2.5% 7.7% 8.3% 6.7% 11.9% 10.8% 25.3% 10.2% 22.7% 48.0% -9.5%
TB 2-3 -11.7% 6.8 0.2% 1.3% 2.5% 2.7% 3.6% 5.5% 6.8% 1.5% 9.2% 15.9% -9.2%
ATL 2-4 -8.5% 6.5 0.1% 0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 3.1% 4.8% 3.7% 0.8% 7.9% 11.5% 3.6%

NFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
LAR 6-0 26.2% 12.7 65.5% 17.9% 8.1% 3.6% 2.5% 1.0% 95.1% 83.4% 3.6% 98.7% -0.1%
SEA 3-3 6.1% 8.5 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 0.7% 23.7% 14.8% 4.7% 2.9% 38.5% 43.1% 15.0%
SF 1-5 -16.4% 5.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 1.8% -0.8%
ARI 1-5 -21.3% 4.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% -0.9%

AFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
MIA 4-2 9.5% 10.0 8.4% 16.4% 13.8% 5.8% 9.7% 12.1% 44.4% 24.8% 21.8% 66.2% 3.6%
NE 4-2 11.8% 9.8 11.9% 15.3% 11.4% 6.2% 12.2% 11.5% 44.7% 27.2% 23.7% 68.5% 8.4%
NYJ 3-3 -1.8% 8.0 0.7% 2.7% 4.0% 2.7% 3.3% 7.2% 10.1% 3.4% 10.5% 20.6% 1.4%
BUF 2-4 -31.9% 4.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.3% 0.9% -0.8%

AFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
BAL 4-2 18.9% 10.2 14.1% 16.1% 16.7% 5.0% 10.2% 10.7% 52.0% 30.3% 20.9% 72.9% 16.0%
CIN 4-2 3.7% 9.0 4.7% 7.4% 8.7% 3.4% 9.5% 12.2% 24.2% 12.1% 21.7% 45.9% -11.5%
PIT 3-2-1 11.9% 9.0 3.7% 7.2% 8.0% 3.3% 9.9% 11.5% 22.3% 11.0% 21.4% 43.7% 8.4%
CLE 2-3-1 -14.3% 6.2 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% 1.9% 1.6% 0.4% 2.6% 4.1% -13.3%

AFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
JAX 3-3 0.8% 8.3 1.1% 4.6% 8.7% 21.4% 1.0% 3.2% 35.8% 5.7% 4.2% 40.0% -12.1%
HOU 3-3 -1.1% 8.0 0.9% 3.0% 7.0% 21.3% 1.1% 2.9% 32.2% 3.9% 3.9% 36.1% 6.3%
TEN 3-3 -10.4% 7.3 0.3% 1.2% 3.6% 17.5% 0.5% 1.5% 22.6% 1.5% 2.0% 24.6% -10.8%
IND 1-5 -3.4% 6.4 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% 8.2% 0.1% 0.6% 9.4% 0.2% 0.7% 10.2% -0.8%

AFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
KC 5-1 23.3% 11.6 44.6% 19.7% 11.8% 2.9% 9.3% 4.8% 78.9% 64.3% 14.1% 93.0% -1.5%
LAC 4-2 16.1% 9.9 9.3% 5.2% 3.5% 1.0% 29.8% 15.4% 19.1% 14.5% 45.3% 64.3% 14.2%
DEN 2-4 1.6% 7.0 0.2% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% 2.5% 4.0% 1.9% 0.7% 6.5% 8.4% -5.6%
OAK 1-5 -18.4% 4.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5% -1.9%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win16-0
LAR 67.0%44.1%25.1%2.4%
KC 52.9%32.6%17.7%0.0%
NO 34.6%16.8%8.5%0.0%
BAL 31.1%16.4%8.4%0.0%
CHI 28.8%13.4%6.6%0.0%
NE 24.6%11.4%5.1%0.0%
LAC 19.2%9.7%4.8%0.0%
MIA 22.5%10.1%4.6%0.0%
PIT 13.1%6.1%2.9%0.0%
GB 11.5%4.7%2.0%0.0%
CIN 11.6%4.8%2.0%0.0%
CAR 12.4%4.5%2.0%0.0%
PHI 9.0%3.4%1.4%0.0%
SEA 7.6%3.1%1.4%0.0%
JAX 8.0%3.1%1.3%0.0%
WAS 8.8%3.0%1.2%0.0%
DAL 8.1%2.9%1.1%0.0%
MIN 7.3%2.6%1.1%0.0%
HOU 6.6%2.5%1.0%0.0%
NYJ 4.0%1.5%0.6%0.0%
TEN 3.1%0.9%0.3%0.0%
DEN 1.3%0.5%0.2%0.0%
TB 1.8%0.5%0.2%0.0%
ATL 1.5%0.5%0.2%0.0%
IND 1.3%0.4%0.1%0.0%
DET 1.0%0.3%0.1%0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
ARI 22.1% 67.4%
OAK 18.5% 63.4%
SF 17.4% 59.4%
BUF 9.5% 54.0%
NYG 11.6% 48.3%
IND 5.1% 30.2%
CLE 2.8% 29.0%
DET 3.5% 26.9%
ATL 3.3% 25.3%
TB 2.2% 19.5%
DEN 1.2% 13.8%
TEN 0.7% 11.0%
HOU 0.4% 7.3%
DAL 0.3% 6.3%
WAS 0.3% 6.1%
NYJ 0.4% 5.7%
PHI 0.2% 4.9%
MIN 0.1% 4.4%
JAX 0.2% 4.1%
CAR 0.1% 3.0%
SEA 0.1% 3.0%
GB 0.1% 2.4%
PIT 0.0% 1.5%
CHI 0.0% 1.0%
CIN 0.0% 0.8%
MIA 0.0% 0.4%
LAC 0.0% 0.3%
NE 0.0% 0.3%
NO 0.0% 0.3%
BAL 0.0% 0.2%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 14.2%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LAR vs NE 5.1%
Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 4.4%
Ndamukong Suh Reunion Special LAR vs MIA 4.4%
Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 4.3%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 2.7%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LAC 1.6%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 1.4%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 1.4%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 1.1%
Alex Smith Reunion Special WAS vs KC 1.0%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.8%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.7%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 0.6%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 0.5%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.4%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 0.4%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.3%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.3%
Super Bowls VII-XVII Rematch WAS vs MIA 0.3%
Super Bowl VI Rematch DAL vs MIA 0.3%
Queen City Challenge CAR vs CIN 0.3%
Super Bowl VIII Rematch MIN vs MIA 0.3%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.2%
Mike Zimmer Reunion Special MIN vs CIN 0.1%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 0.1%
Super Bowl LI Rematch ATL vs NE 0.1%
Florida Bowl (South) TB vs MIA 0.1%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.1%
Super Bowl XLI Rematch CHI vs IND 0.1%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 0.1%