Innovative Statistics

Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 12/04/18, through Week 13.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

Washington and Cincinnati's ratings are both penalized due to injuries to starting quarterbacks Alex Smith and Andy Dalton (as well as Washington backup Colt McCoy).

NFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DAL 7-5 0.8% 9.1 0.0% 0.9% 18.4% 54.3% 0.6% 4.8% 73.6% 0.9% 5.4% 78.9% 26.8%
PHI 6-6 -7.3% 7.7 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 20.6% 0.2% 5.2% 21.4% 0.0% 5.5% 26.9% 5.8%
WAS 6-6 -29.4% 7.4 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.9% 1.5% 11.3% 4.9% 0.0% 12.8% 17.7% -20.7%
NYG 4-8 0.1% 6.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

NFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CHI 8-4 13.4% 10.3 0.3% 8.9% 59.9% 16.0% 6.4% 4.8% 85.1% 9.2% 11.2% 96.3% -0.9%
MIN 6-5-1 2.3% 8.6 0.0% 0.1% 10.5% 4.3% 13.5% 30.2% 14.8% 0.1% 43.7% 58.5% -7.2%
GB 4-7-1 7.2% 6.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 3.6% 3.6% -10.7%
DET 4-8 -15.9% 5.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% -0.2%

NFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NO 10-2 27.3% 12.7 24.1% 66.5% 8.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 99.4% 90.6% 0.6% 100.0% 0.0%
CAR 6-6 1.5% 7.8 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2.4% 18.6% 0.6% 0.1% 21.0% 21.6% -11.7%
TB 5-7 -16.0% 6.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 2.1% 1.4%
ATL 4-8 -6.3% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% -0.7%

NFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
LAR 11-1 27.8% 14.0 75.6% 23.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.1% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%
SEA 7-5 12.9% 9.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 74.9% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 92.2% 92.2% 18.0%
ARI 3-9 -34.9% 4.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SF 2-10 -28.3% 2.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

AFC East

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 9-3 15.4% 11.6 17.0% 48.7% 22.8% 10.0% 0.0% 0.8% 98.5% 65.7% 0.8% 99.3% 1.2%
MIA 6-6 -11.4% 7.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.3% 0.3% 7.8% 1.5% 0.0% 8.1% 9.6% 1.8%
BUF 4-8 -18.0% 5.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.7%
NYJ 3-9 -26.6% 4.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%

AFC North

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 7-4-1 16.9% 10.0 0.0% 5.5% 17.3% 55.6% 0.7% 7.5% 78.4% 5.5% 8.2% 86.7% -6.8%
BAL 7-5 10.9% 9.0 0.0% 1.0% 3.6% 16.8% 3.4% 28.8% 21.4% 1.0% 32.2% 53.6% 12.4%
CLE 4-7-1 -8.6% 6.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% -1.0%
CIN 5-7 -26.7% 6.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% -1.6%

AFC South

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
HOU 9-3 7.9% 11.4 7.9% 24.1% 50.0% 11.6% 0.5% 4.2% 93.7% 32.0% 4.7% 98.4% 2.4%
IND 6-6 9.8% 8.3 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 3.2% 0.1% 11.9% 4.7% 0.0% 12.0% 16.7% -22.5%
TEN 6-6 -11.6% 8.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% 0.0% 6.4% 1.6% 0.0% 6.4% 8.0% 2.4%
JAX 4-8 -4.0% 6.0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%

AFC West

TeamW-LWEI DVOAMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
KC 10-2 38.6% 12.9 68.5% 17.7% 3.7% 0.3% 9.5% 0.1% 90.3% 86.3% 9.7% 100.0% 0.0%
LAC 9-3 31.2% 11.5 6.4% 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 81.6% 6.0% 9.7% 9.3% 87.6% 97.3% 7.8%
DEN 6-6 23.9% 8.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% 26.0% 0.0% 0.0% 29.8% 29.8% 4.6%
OAK 2-10 -24.9% 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
KC 68.2%47.5%28.2%
LAR 73.5%43.5%21.9%
NO 69.7%36.3%17.9%
NE 45.7%17.2%7.6%
LAC 25.9%13.6%7.4%
HOU 27.5%9.2%3.7%
CHI 22.0%8.8%3.7%
PIT 18.1%7.1%3.2%
SEA 13.9%5.1%1.9%
DEN 5.1%2.1%1.1%
BAL 7.1%2.4%1.0%
DAL 9.8%3.1%1.0%
MIN 6.2%1.9%0.7%
IND 1.8%0.6%0.3%
CAR 1.9%0.6%0.2%
PHI 2.2%0.5%0.1%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
SF 57.8% 98.4%
OAK 23.4% 95.8%
NYJ 11.2% 84.4%
ARI 6.9% 84.0%
DET 0.3% 33.3%
ATL 0.2% 28.0%
BUF 0.1% 18.2%
NYG 0.1% 14.2%
TB 0.0% 11.5%
CLE 0.0% 11.3%
JAX 0.0% 8.4%
CIN 0.0% 6.4%
GB 0.0% 5.0%
MIA 0.0% 0.6%
WAS 0.0% 0.4%
IND 0.0% 0.1%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 20.8%
Willie Roaf Memories Bowl NO vs KC 17.2%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LAR vs NE 7.4%
GOAT Quarterback Battle NO vs NE 6.2%
Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 5.9%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LAC 4.9%
Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 4.1%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 3.0%
Back in Black NO vs PIT 2.7%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 1.6%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.9%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 0.9%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.4%
Randy Moss Memories Bowl MIN vs NE 0.3%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 0.3%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.3%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.2%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.1%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XLI Rematch CHI vs IND 0.1%