Innovative Statistics
Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 09/10/19, through Week 1.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

Jacksonville's DAVE rating is lowered -8.0% for backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in Weeks 2-10, and in 40 percent of simulations for Week 11 and 20 percent of simulations for Week 12.

NFC East

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
DAL 1-0 10.7% 9.5 12.0% 11.5% 10.8% 11.5% 8.9% 7.5% 45.8% 23.5% 16.4% 62.3% 14.1%
PHI 1-0 7.1% 9.4 11.0% 10.8% 10.5% 10.7% 8.8% 7.8% 43.0% 21.7% 16.6% 59.6% 2.9%
WAS 0-1 -13.6% 6.4 0.7% 1.3% 1.7% 2.6% 2.7% 3.9% 6.2% 1.9% 6.6% 12.8% -1.6%
NYG 0-1 -16.9% 6.2 0.5% 0.9% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% 3.3% 5.0% 1.4% 5.7% 10.6% -12.8%

 

NFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
GB 1-0 3.8% 8.9 7.5% 9.1% 9.0% 9.1% 7.4% 7.9% 34.7% 16.7% 15.4% 50.1% 10.7%
MIN 1-0 2.2% 8.5 5.6% 6.9% 7.8% 7.1% 7.3% 7.9% 27.4% 12.5% 15.1% 42.5% 7.1%
DET 0-0-1 2.2% 8.3 4.6% 6.1% 7.2% 7.5% 6.6% 7.3% 25.4% 10.7% 13.9% 39.3% -1.8%
CHI 0-1 1.5% 7.3 2.1% 2.9% 3.5% 3.9% 4.6% 5.7% 12.5% 5.0% 10.3% 22.7% -12.9%

 

NFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
NO 1-0 18.7% 10.4 21.5% 16.8% 15.7% 14.6% 4.4% 4.2% 68.6% 38.3% 8.7% 77.2% 4.0%
CAR 0-1 0.1% 7.6 2.2% 3.4% 4.9% 6.2% 5.4% 6.1% 16.7% 5.6% 11.5% 28.2% -7.9%
ATL 0-1 -5.9% 6.9 1.2% 2.1% 2.9% 4.4% 3.4% 4.3% 10.6% 3.3% 7.7% 18.3% -12.6%
TB 0-1 -16.7% 5.7 0.3% 0.6% 1.1% 2.3% 1.2% 1.8% 4.2% 0.8% 3.0% 7.2% -5.8%

 

NFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
LAR 1-0 13.1% 9.8 15.1% 12.0% 9.4% 6.6% 12.1% 9.3% 43.0% 27.0% 21.4% 64.4% 3.3%
SEA 1-0 8.5% 9.1 9.2% 8.0% 7.3% 5.2% 11.4% 9.3% 29.7% 17.2% 20.6% 50.3% 4.7%
SF 1-0 1.5% 8.6 5.9% 6.2% 5.5% 4.3% 10.5% 9.6% 22.0% 12.2% 20.1% 42.1% 11.3%
ARI 0-0-1 -13.4% 6.5 0.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.7% 3.0% 4.1% 5.4% 2.2% 7.1% 12.4% -2.8%

 

AFC East

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
NE 1-0 24.0% 11.3 32.4% 20.8% 15.0% 10.3% 5.6% 4.2% 78.5% 53.2% 9.8% 88.4% 12.8%
BUF 1-0 -9.1% 8.0 2.8% 3.5% 3.5% 3.7% 9.5% 9.3% 13.5% 6.3% 18.8% 32.3% 7.6%
NYJ 0-1 -5.5% 7.3 1.2% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 6.4% 7.3% 7.6% 3.1% 13.7% 21.3% -12.9%
MIA 0-1 -37.0% 4.0 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 1.1% -3.2%

 

AFC North

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 1-0 16.4% 10.0 14.7% 15.4% 14.8% 13.4% 6.5% 6.5% 58.3% 30.1% 13.0% 71.3% 28.5%
PIT 0-1 3.9% 8.2 2.3% 4.8% 6.8% 8.3% 6.9% 8.1% 22.2% 7.2% 15.0% 37.2% -24.9%
CLE 0-1 -4.5% 7.1 0.8% 2.0% 3.4% 5.5% 3.5% 5.0% 11.8% 2.8% 8.5% 20.3% -14.6%
CIN 0-1 -11.7% 6.5 0.8% 1.4% 2.2% 3.4% 3.2% 4.4% 7.7% 2.2% 7.6% 15.3% -2.1%

 

AFC South

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
TEN 1-0 10.6% 9.7 12.1% 13.5% 14.2% 13.9% 7.0% 6.5% 53.7% 25.6% 13.4% 67.1% 22.7%
HOU 0-1 5.5% 8.0 3.4% 5.2% 7.1% 8.6% 6.4% 7.0% 24.3% 8.6% 13.4% 37.7% -7.5%
IND 0-1 -7.2% 7.0 0.8% 1.7% 3.3% 5.9% 3.1% 4.8% 11.7% 2.5% 8.0% 19.7% -3.6%
JAX 0-1 -2.7% or -10.7% 6.7 0.7% 1.6% 2.9% 5.1% 2.7% 4.2% 10.2% 2.3% 6.9% 17.2% -13.3%

 

AFC West

 

Team W-L DAVE Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
LAC 1-0 14.8% 9.9 13.3% 12.7% 10.3% 7.5% 14.3% 9.9% 43.8% 26.0% 24.2% 68.0% 3.7%
KC 1-0 15.9% 9.6 11.6% 10.9% 9.0% 7.0% 13.9% 10.3% 38.5% 22.5% 24.3% 62.8% 4.1%
OAK 1-0 -2.8% 7.9 2.8% 3.9% 4.2% 3.8% 8.3% 8.6% 14.7% 6.7% 17.0% 31.6% 9.3%
DEN 0-1 -14.4% 5.9 0.3% 0.7% 0.9% 1.1% 2.4% 3.4% 3.0% 1.0% 5.8% 8.8% -6.5%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win 16-0
NE 49.2% 30.0% 18.1% 0.6%
NO 38.2% 22.4% 11.9% 0.2%
BAL 29.8% 15.4% 8.4% 0.1%
LAC 26.1% 13.2% 7.0% 0.1%
LAR 26.1% 14.2% 6.8% 0.1%
KC 24.2% 12.4% 6.7% 0.1%
TEN 24.2% 11.3% 5.8% 0.1%
DAL 24.0% 12.1% 5.5% 0.1%
PHI 21.0% 10.1% 4.5% 0.1%
SEA 17.1% 8.8% 4.2% 0.0%
GB 15.7% 7.3% 2.9% 0.0%
MIN 12.0% 5.4% 2.3% 0.0%
SF 12.1% 5.4% 2.2% 0.0%
DET 11.1% 4.9% 2.0% 0.0%
HOU 10.0% 4.2% 2.0% 0.0%
PIT 8.7% 3.6% 1.8% 0.0%
CAR 6.7% 3.1% 1.2% 0.0%
CHI 5.9% 2.7% 1.2% 0.0%
OAK 6.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.0%
BUF 5.3% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0%
ATL 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0%
JAX 3.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0%
CLE 3.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0%
NYJ 3.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0%
IND 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0%
ARI 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
CIN 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
WAS 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
NYG 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
DEN 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

 

ON THE CLOCK

 

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

 

 

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
MIA 32.5% 74.2%
TB 10.1% 43.3%
DEN 7.1% 35.7%
NYG 7.0% 35.4%
WAS 5.2% 29.3%
CIN 5.0% 28.7%
ARI 4.7% 28.6%
JAX 4.5% 26.4%
IND 3.7% 23.4%
ATL 3.4% 22.3%
CLE 2.6% 19.3%
NYJ 2.8% 18.6%
CAR 1.9% 14.7%
CHI 1.9% 14.5%
BUF 1.3% 11.6%
OAK 1.1% 10.5%
PIT 1.0% 8.8%
HOU 0.8% 8.6%
DET 0.8% 8.1%
MIN 0.4% 6.5%
SF 0.5% 6.4%
GB 0.3% 4.6%
SEA 0.3% 3.7%
PHI 0.2% 3.3%
TEN 0.2% 2.5%
DAL 0.1% 2.3%
LAR 0.1% 2.0%
KC 0.1% 1.9%
LAC 0.1% 1.8%
BAL 0.1% 1.5%
NO 0.1% 1.2%
NE 0.0% 0.4%

 

 

 

Special Super Bowl Matchups

 

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.

 

 

Name Teams Chance
GOAT Quarterback Battle NO vs NE 6.5%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch LAR vs NE 4.3%
Drew Brees Reunion Special NO vs LAC 3.0%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 2.9%
Willie Roaf Memories Bowl NO vs KC 2.8%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 2.7%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 2.2%
Fight for L.A. LAR vs LAC 1.9%
Missouri Revenge Bowl LAR vs KC 1.7%
Super Bowl XXXIV Rematch LAR vs TEN 1.7%
Matt Patricia Reunion Special DET vs NE 1.5%
Darren Sproles Reunion Special PHI vs LAC 1.3%
Earl Thomas Reunion Special SEA vs BAL 1.3%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 1.3%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 0.9%
Gulf Coast Challenge NO vs HOU 0.9%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 0.9%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 0.8%
Matt LaFleur Reunion Special GB vs TEN 0.8%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.6%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LAR vs PIT 0.5%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.5%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.4%
Super Bowl LI Rematch ATL vs NE 0.4%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 0.4%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.3%
Matt Nagy Reunion Special CHI vs KC 0.3%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.3%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.3%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.3%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 0.2%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs OAK 0.2%
Who Dey vs. Who Dat NO vs CIN 0.2%
Return of the Rams LAR vs CLE 0.2%
Bay Area Bowl SF vs OAK 0.1%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs OAK 0.1%
Frank Reich Reunion Special PHI vs IND 0.1%
Fifth Time's The Charm MIN vs BUF 0.1%
Nick Foles Reunion Special PHI vs JAX 0.1%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.1%
Pete Carroll Reunion Special SEA vs NYJ 0.1%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.1%
Zac Taylor Reunion Special LAR vs CIN 0.1%
AAFC Memorial Bowl SF vs CLE 0.1%
Khalil Mack Reunion Special CHI vs OAK 0.1%
Children of Brady SF vs IND 0.1%