Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008


Revised as of 01/15/18, through Week 19.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 25,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 25,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Minnesota is given one-half of the usual home-field advantage if they advance far enough to play Super Bowl LII at home. Philadelphia is adjusted downward for backup quarterback Nick Foles replacing starter Carson Wentz.

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win
NE 100.0% 72.5%42.2%
MIN 100.0% 53.0%27.0%
PHI 100.0% 47.0%18.9%
JAC 100.0% 27.5%11.9%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups. Not all possible matchups are included.

Name Teams Chance
Randy Moss Memories Bowl MIN vs NE 38.4%
Super Bowl XXXIX Rematch PHI vs NE 34.1%
The One We Have No Nickname For MIN vs JAC 14.6%
Cuauhtlocelotl Bowl PHI vs JAC 12.9%