Innovative Statistics
Football Outsiders exclusive statistics

2019 NFL PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 11/12/19, through Week 10.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 30,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 30,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

  • Denver rating is adjusted based on backup quarterbacks for the rest of the season.
  • Indianapolis rating is adjusted to only consider games with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Brian Hoyer is assigned at quarterback in 40% of Week 11 games and 20% of Week 12 games.
  • Kansas City rating is adjusted to only consider games with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.
  • Miami rating is adjusted to only consider games with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback.
  • New Orleans rating is adjusted to only consider games with Drew Brees at quarterback.
  • New York Jets rating is adjusted to only consider games with Sam Darnold at quarterback.
  • Tennessee rating is adjusted to only consider games with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback.

NFC East

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
DAL 5-4 27.3% 9.6 0.1% 2.1% 10.6% 50.2% 0.5% 3.5% 63.0% 2.2% 3.9% 67.0% -10.0%
PHI 5-4 8.3% 9.3 0.1% 2.0% 8.1% 26.7% 1.3% 5.9% 36.9% 2.2% 7.3% 44.2% 5.2%
NYG 2-8 -24.1% 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.1%
WAS 1-8 -31.3% 3.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

NFC North

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
GB 8-2 15.3% 11.4 15.8% 26.9% 18.1% 4.0% 12.4% 15.7% 64.8% 42.7% 28.0% 92.9% 8.8%
MIN 7-3 22.7% 10.9 7.9% 15.9% 9.5% 1.0% 25.2% 28.0% 34.3% 23.8% 53.3% 87.6% 18.6%
CHI 4-5 -1.3% 6.9 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 3.0% 3.6% 1.0%
DET 3-5-1 0.8% 7.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 2.1% 2.3% -5.1%

 

NFC South

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
NO 7-2 25.5% 11.4 19.7% 25.2% 34.6% 7.2% 1.2% 3.1% 86.8% 45.0% 4.2% 91.0% -6.1%
CAR 5-4 -0.2% 8.5 0.0% 0.6% 4.9% 7.2% 0.7% 4.2% 12.7% 0.7% 4.9% 17.6% -8.3%
TB 3-6 -6.6% 6.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
ATL 2-7 -19.4% 4.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

NFC West

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
SF 8-1 30.5% 12.6 43.0% 17.1% 6.6% 1.0% 21.9% 8.1% 67.6% 60.0% 30.0% 97.7% -0.9%
SEA 8-2 14.6% 11.2 13.2% 9.7% 6.7% 2.1% 33.8% 18.5% 31.7% 22.9% 52.3% 84.0% 20.5%
LAR 5-4 1.8% 8.2 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 2.4% 8.3% 0.7% 0.4% 10.7% 11.4% -23.5%
ARI 3-6-1 -12.8% 5.8 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% -0.3%

 

AFC East

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
NE 8-1 34.9% 13.1 69.0% 23.0% 5.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 99.1% 92.0% 0.8% 99.9% 0.0%
BUF 6-3 -10.3% 8.9 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 26.6% 18.8% 0.9% 0.7% 45.4% 46.3% -12.9%
NYJ 2-7 -12.5% 5.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
MIA 2-7 -40.5% 4.1 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

AFC North

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
BAL 7-2 23.8% 11.6 23.6% 40.7% 16.4% 9.8% 4.1% 2.2% 90.5% 64.3% 6.3% 96.8% 3.7%
PIT 5-4 -0.5% 8.8 0.1% 4.0% 2.7% 1.4% 25.9% 18.1% 8.2% 4.2% 44.0% 52.2% 14.2%
CLE 3-6 -11.5% 6.8 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.7% 3.5% 5.4% 1.3% 0.2% 8.9% 10.1% 1.6%
CIN 0-9 -42.4% 1.9 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -0.0%

 

AFC South

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
HOU 6-3 9.3% 9.6 3.4% 12.6% 22.1% 15.4% 10.8% 11.0% 53.6% 16.0% 21.8% 75.3% -5.3%
IND 5-4 12.5% 8.7 0.1% 2.4% 13.4% 16.5% 3.6% 8.0% 32.4% 2.5% 11.6% 44.0% -14.7%
JAX 4-5 3.1% 7.6 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 3.7% 5.9% 9.0% 5.3% 0.3% 14.9% 20.1% -1.7%
TEN 5-5 3.6% 7.7 0.0% 0.6% 3.9% 4.3% 2.2% 6.1% 8.8% 0.6% 8.3% 17.1% 11.2%

 

AFC West

 

Team W-L WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
KC 6-4 30.4% 10.0 3.0% 12.8% 24.5% 34.9% 3.8% 5.2% 75.3% 15.9% 9.0% 84.3% -6.5%
OAK 5-4 6.2% 8.9 0.3% 3.1% 9.0% 9.3% 12.4% 14.2% 21.7% 3.4% 26.6% 48.4% 16.1%
LAC 4-6 -0.9% 6.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 2.1% 0.2% 0.9% 2.6% 0.0% 1.1% 3.7% -5.9%
DEN 3-6 -13.2% 5.5 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% 1.3% 0.0%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
Team Conf App Conf Win SB Win
NE 71.9% 46.4% 26.8%
SF 50.1% 29.8% 15.6%
BAL 51.0% 23.6% 11.8%
NO 41.2% 21.3% 10.3%
KC 31.8% 15.3% 8.3%
GB 31.8% 14.1% 5.9%
MIN 26.6% 12.6% 5.9%
DAL 18.4% 8.8% 4.2%
SEA 20.8% 9.3% 3.9%
HOU 17.1% 6.1% 2.6%
IND 8.6% 3.0% 1.3%
PHI 7.3% 2.7% 1.0%
OAK 6.8% 2.2% 0.8%
PIT 5.6% 1.5% 0.6%
TEN 2.1% 0.7% 0.3%
CAR 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
JAX 2.0% 0.6% 0.2%
BUF 2.1% 0.5% 0.2%
LAR 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%

 

ON THE CLOCK

 

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.

 

 

Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
CIN 58.5% 97.3%
WAS 21.3% 89.2%
MIA 10.2% 76.1%
NYG 6.5% 71.9%
ATL 1.2% 50.1%
NYJ 1.9% 32.9%
DEN 0.2% 23.3%
ARI 0.0% 18.6%
TB 0.1% 14.2%
CLE 0.1% 7.1%
LAC 0.0% 6.6%
DET 0.0% 5.0%
JAX 0.0% 3.3%
CHI 0.0% 3.3%
TEN 0.0% 0.4%
IND 0.0% 0.2%
OAK 0.0% 0.1%
CAR 0.0% 0.1%
PHI 0.0% 0.1%
LAR 0.0% 0.1%
PIT 0.0% 0.1%

 

 

 

Special Super Bowl Matchups

 

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.

 

 

Name Teams Chance
Jimmy Garoppolo Reunion Special SF vs NE 13.9%
GOAT Quarterback Battle NO vs NE 9.9%
Super Bowl XLVII Rematch SF vs BAL 6.9%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 6.7%
Joe Montana Memories Bowl SF vs KC 4.6%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 4.2%
Battle of the Dynasties DAL vs NE 4.0%
Willie Roaf Memories Bowl NO vs KC 3.3%
Earl Thomas Reunion Special SEA vs BAL 2.2%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 2.1%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 1.8%
1960 Double Dallas Showdown DAL vs KC 1.4%
Gulf Coast Challenge NO vs HOU 1.2%
Super Bowls XXXIX-LII Rematch PHI vs NE 1.2%
Children of Brady SF vs IND 0.9%
Bay Area Bowl SF vs OAK 0.6%
Super Bowl XLIV Rematch NO vs IND 0.6%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.6%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.4%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 0.3%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs OAK 0.3%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs OAK 0.3%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.3%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowls XXXVI-LIII Rematch LAR vs NE 0.2%
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 0.2%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 0.1%
Matt LaFleur Reunion Special GB vs TEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.1%
Frank Reich Reunion Special PHI vs IND 0.1%