Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Revised as of 09/12/17, through Week 1.

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current DAVE ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 50,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

Mean Wins includes 0.5 wins for each tie.

The DVOA ratings used in the simulation are adjusted as follows:

  • Arizona rating goes up 8.0% with David Johnson returning Week 10 in 12 percent of simulations; in Week 12 in 24 percent of simulations; and in Week 14 in 60 percent of simulations. In 40 percent of simulations, David Johnson does not return this season.
  • In all simulations, Indianapolis rating is -18.0% lower in Week 2 due to Andrew Luck injury. Luck returns in Week 3 in 20 percent of simulations, and his odds of returning increase 20 percent each week until we assume Luck is starting for Indianapolis in Week 7 in all simulations.

NFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
DAL 1-0 16.4% 9.8 15.7% 12.6% 11.2% 10.2% 8.4% 7.2% 49.9% 28.4% 15.6% 65.5% 19.2%
PHI 1-0 5.7% 8.8 7.0% 7.6% 7.4% 7.9% 8.7% 8.4% 29.8% 14.6% 17.0% 46.8% 11.5%
NYG 0-1 0.9% 7.5 2.1% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5% 5.8% 6.4% 11.7% 5.0% 12.1% 23.8% -17.4%
WAS 0-1 -1.8% 7.0 1.2% 1.9% 2.6% 2.9% 3.8% 5.1% 8.6% 3.1% 8.9% 17.5% -14.6%

NFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
GB 1-0 15.8% 9.8 15.7% 12.5% 10.8% 8.0% 9.8% 8.2% 47.0% 28.2% 18.0% 65.0% 6.5%
DET 1-0 5.4% 8.8 7.7% 7.3% 7.1% 5.8% 9.9% 8.7% 27.9% 15.0% 18.6% 46.4% 10.6%
MIN 1-0 -1.0% 8.0 3.8% 4.4% 5.0% 4.7% 7.1% 7.6% 17.9% 8.3% 14.7% 32.6% 3.7%
CHI 0-1 -6.6% 6.7 0.8% 1.5% 2.2% 2.7% 2.8% 4.1% 7.2% 2.3% 6.8% 14.0% -10.0%

NFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
CAR 1-0 8.4% 9.4 12.0% 10.7% 9.8% 8.7% 9.3% 8.0% 41.2% 22.7% 17.3% 58.6% 13.1%
ATL 1-0 6.7% 9.1 9.5% 9.2% 8.9% 8.6% 8.3% 7.6% 36.1% 18.7% 15.9% 52.1% 9.9%
TB 0-0 -4.7% 7.5 2.8% 3.6% 4.0% 4.9% 5.2% 5.8% 15.3% 6.4% 11.0% 26.4% -2.5%
NO 0-1 -10.5% 6.4 0.7% 1.4% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 3.0% 7.3% 2.1% 5.1% 12.4% -10.8%

NFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
LARM 1-0 12.0% 9.7 12.7% 12.5% 11.9% 11.5% 7.5% 6.6% 48.6% 25.2% 14.2% 62.7% 25.2%
SEA 0-1 11.9% 9.0 6.7% 9.0% 9.6% 10.8% 7.4% 7.4% 36.0% 15.7% 14.8% 50.8% -13.4%
ARI 0-1 -10.3% or -2.3% 7.1 1.2% 2.2% 3.2% 4.6% 3.0% 4.2% 11.2% 3.4% 7.2% 18.4% -24.2%
SF 0-1 -19.3% 5.7 0.2% 0.7% 1.1% 2.2% 0.9% 1.8% 4.2% 0.9% 2.7% 6.9% -6.6%

AFC East

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
NE 0-1 19.3% 9.7 11.4% 16.0% 17.6% 12.6% 5.2% 6.2% 57.5% 27.3% 11.4% 68.9% -18.7%
BUF 1-0 -3.8% 8.2 3.8% 6.5% 8.1% 6.7% 6.2% 8.0% 25.1% 10.3% 14.3% 39.3% 20.1%
MIA 0-0 -7.4% 7.2 1.8% 3.4% 4.7% 4.4% 4.0% 5.9% 14.3% 5.2% 9.9% 24.2% -0.9%
NYJ 0-1 -23.6% 5.4 0.2% 0.5% 1.0% 1.4% 1.0% 2.0% 3.2% 0.7% 3.0% 6.2% -6.9%

AFC North

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
PIT 1-0 25.7% 11.1 34.2% 16.2% 8.5% 4.2% 15.0% 7.4% 63.1% 50.4% 22.5% 85.5% 7.5%
BAL 1-0 11.5% 9.9 14.9% 9.2% 5.5% 3.1% 22.7% 12.4% 32.8% 24.1% 35.1% 67.9% 24.2%
CIN 0-1 -9.3% 6.7 0.8% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 4.3% 6.0% 3.1% 1.6% 10.4% 13.4% -25.8%
CLE 0-1 -21.9% 5.6 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5% 4.6% 5.6% -6.3%

AFC South

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
JAC 1-0 -6.0% 8.4 4.5% 7.4% 12.1% 20.2% 2.8% 4.2% 44.2% 11.9% 6.9% 51.1% 22.4%
TEN 0-1 -0.8% 7.9 2.6% 5.0% 9.6% 18.8% 2.2% 3.6% 35.9% 7.6% 5.8% 41.7% -3.4%
HOU 0-1 -14.2% 6.2 0.5% 1.1% 2.6% 6.3% 1.3% 2.4% 10.5% 1.6% 3.7% 14.2% -11.2%
IND 0-1 -18.1% or -36.1% 5.8 0.3% 1.0% 2.3% 5.9% 1.0% 2.0% 9.5% 1.3% 3.0% 12.5% -17.0%

AFC West

TeamW-LDAVEMean Wins#1#2#3#4#5#6DIVBYEWCTOTCHANGE
KC 1-0 7.9% 9.3 11.3% 12.6% 9.3% 5.2% 10.5% 10.3% 38.3% 23.9% 20.8% 59.1% 16.8%
OAK 1-0 8.3% 9.2 9.2% 11.6% 9.4% 4.7% 10.5% 10.6% 34.9% 20.8% 21.1% 56.0% 6.3%
DEN 1-0 -6.4% 7.8 2.8% 5.0% 4.7% 3.3% 6.3% 8.6% 15.8% 7.8% 14.9% 30.7% 4.4%
LACH 0-1 -2.0% 7.3 1.6% 3.4% 3.5% 2.5% 5.2% 7.5% 10.9% 5.0% 12.7% 23.6% -11.4%

Playoff Scenarios

This report lists the odds of each team

  • Reaching the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Conference Championship Game
  • Winning the Super Bowl
TeamConf AppConf WinSB Win16-0
PIT 49.0%31.6%18.9%0.6%
NE 31.3%16.9%9.5%0.0%
DAL 28.6%16.1%8.2%0.1%
GB 28.2%15.5%8.0%0.1%
BAL 24.0%12.8%6.6%0.1%
LARM 25.0%13.1%6.3%0.1%
KC 21.5%9.9%4.9%0.1%
CAR 21.0%10.4%4.8%0.1%
SEA 18.0%9.3%4.6%0.0%
OAK 19.8%9.0%4.5%0.0%
ATL 17.7%8.6%4.0%0.0%
PHI 14.8%6.9%3.2%0.0%
DET 14.2%6.7%3.0%0.0%
JAC 11.4%4.2%1.7%0.0%
TEN 9.6%3.7%1.6%0.0%
BUF 9.6%3.6%1.5%0.0%
MIN 8.2%3.5%1.4%0.0%
NYG 5.8%2.5%1.1%0.0%
TB 6.0%2.5%0.9%0.0%
DEN 6.7%2.4%0.9%0.0%
LACH 5.4%2.0%0.9%0.0%
MIA 4.9%1.7%0.7%0.0%
WAS 3.7%1.6%0.6%0.0%
ARI 3.4%1.3%0.5%0.0%
CHI 2.6%1.0%0.3%0.0%
CIN 2.0%0.7%0.3%0.0%
NO 2.1%0.8%0.3%0.0%
HOU 2.0%0.6%0.2%0.0%
IND 1.5%0.4%0.1%0.0%

ON THE CLOCK

This report lists the odds of each team earning the first overall draft pick in the 2018 NFL Draft.



Team Top Pick Top 5 Pick
NYJ 14.7% 50.2%
CLE 12.6% 45.9%
IND 12.6% 44.9%
SF 11.6% 44.2%
HOU 7.6% 34.7%
NO 5.3% 28.0%
CIN 4.6% 25.4%
CHI 4.2% 24.0%
ARI 3.9% 22.5%
WAS 3.0% 19.6%
MIA 3.1% 19.5%
TB 2.7% 16.5%
LACH 2.3% 16.2%
TEN 2.3% 14.2%
NYG 1.9% 14.2%
DEN 1.5% 12.8%
JAC 1.4% 10.9%
BUF 1.2% 10.4%
MIN 0.8% 8.2%
DET 0.4% 5.0%
PHI 0.3% 4.6%
SEA 0.4% 4.4%
ATL 0.3% 3.7%
CAR 0.2% 3.3%
OAK 0.2% 3.1%
KC 0.2% 2.9%
LARM 0.2% 2.9%
NE 0.2% 2.3%
BAL 0.1% 1.9%
DAL 0.1% 1.7%
GB 0.1% 1.4%
PIT 0.0% 0.4%

Special Super Bowl Matchups

This report lists the odds of several "special" Super Bowl matchups.



Name Teams Chance
Super Bowls X-XIII-XXX Rematch DAL vs PIT 5.0%
Super Bowl XLV Rematch GB vs PIT 4.9%
Super Bowl XIV Rematch LARM vs PIT 4.1%
Super Bowl XL Rematch SEA vs PIT 2.9%
Super Bowl XXXI Rematch GB vs NE 2.6%
Super Bowl XXXVI Rematch LARM vs NE 2.2%
Keystone Bowl PHI vs PIT 2.2%
Super Bowl XXXVIII Rematch CAR vs NE 1.7%
Super Bowl XLIX Rematch SEA vs NE 1.6%
Super Bowl I Rematch GB vs KC 1.6%
Super Bowl LI Rematch ATL vs NE 1.4%
The Great '70s Super Bowl That Never Happened DAL vs OAK 1.4%
Super Bowl II Rematch GB vs OAK 1.4%
Romney Bowl DET vs NE 1.2%
Super Bowl XXXIX Rematch PHI vs NE 1.2%
2008 Draft Showdown ATL vs BAL 1.1%
Super Bowl IX Rematch MIN vs PIT 1.1%
Marshawn Lynch Reunion Special SEA vs OAK 0.9%
Flacco Bowl PHI vs BAL 0.9%
The Super Bowl with the Dragon Tattoo NYG vs PIT 0.8%
Andy Reid Reunion Special PHI vs KC 0.7%
DeMarco Murray Reunion Special DAL vs TEN 0.7%
Super Bowl XV Rematch PHI vs OAK 0.6%
Super Bowls XXVII-XXVIII Rematch DAL vs BUF 0.6%
Super Bowls XLII-XLVI Rematch NYG vs NE 0.5%
Super Bowl XXXII Rematch GB vs DEN 0.4%
Super Bowl XLIII Rematch ARI vs PIT 0.4%
Super Bowl XII Rematch DAL vs DEN 0.4%
Super Bowl IV Rematch MIN vs KC 0.3%
Super Bowl XXXV Rematch NYG vs BAL 0.3%
Super Bowl XI Rematch MIN vs OAK 0.3%
Battle for Los Angeles LARM vs LACH 0.3%
Super Bowl VI Rematch DAL vs MIA 0.3%
Hobnail Boot Bowl ATL vs TEN 0.3%
Super Bowl L Rematch CAR vs DEN 0.3%
Beltway Bowl WAS vs BAL 0.2%
Super Bowl XLVIII Rematch SEA vs DEN 0.2%
Super Bowl XXXIII Rematch ATL vs DEN 0.2%
Angry Native American Activists Bowl WAS vs KC 0.2%
Super Bowl XX Rematch CHI vs NE 0.2%
Fifth Time's the Charm MIN vs BUF 0.1%
Brandin Cooks Reunion Special NO vs NE 0.1%
Super Bowl XVIIII Rematch WAS vs OAK 0.1%
Texas Bowl DAL vs HOU 0.1%
2015 Draft Showdown TB vs TEN 0.1%
Super Bowl XXV Rematch NYG vs BUF 0.1%
Ndamukong Suh Reunion Special DET vs MIA 0.1%
Florida Bowl (North vs. Central) TB vs JAC 0.1%
Super Bowl XXVI Rematch WAS vs BUF 0.1%
Super Bowl VIII Rematch MIN vs MIA 0.1%
Super Bowl V Rematch DAL vs IND 0.1%
Queen City Challenge CAR vs CIN 0.1%
Del Boca Vista Bowl NYG vs MIA 0.1%