Football Outsiders
Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 (PDF)

"A book that any self-respecting NFL fan needs to purchase." -- Bill Simmons,

In 2010, Football Outsiders Almanac correctly predicted NINE out of 12 NFL playoff teams, including Kansas City and Chicago.

This is the PDF download version of the best annual guide to the NFL, Football Outsiders Almanac 2011. Plus, FOA is now the best annual guide to college football as well!

Football Outsiders Almanac 2011

(This is the book that used to be known as Pro Football Prospectus. The product being sold here is an electronic version. If you would like to buy a printed copy of the book for $21.95, you can buy it here.)

For the over 14 million people who play fantasy football every year; for the hardcore fan who wants information beyond sports page recaps; for everyone who bets on the NFL; and for the smart, casual enthusiast looking for entertainment and insight comes the essential preseason annual. With numerous statistical measures that go far beyond standard NFL stats, Football Outsiders Almanac gives NFL fans the kind of sabermetric-like statistical analysis that revolutionized the fan's understanding of baseball. It's also written with a knowing dry wit that gets under the skin of America's most popular spectator sport.

The New York Times Magazine compared Aaron Schatz to Bill James, the legendary guru of baseball statistics. Schatz and his team at are revolutionizing our understanding of professional football with their own collection of advanced and revelatory statistics as well as the results of the Football Outsiders Game Charting Project, which has broken down the last five seasons of NFL games far beyond what is available in the official play-by-play.

Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 also includes college football coverage featuring the innovative stats of Bill Connelly and Brian Fremeau. There are stats and commentary on every team from the six BCS conferences, plus a baker's dozen of important independents and non-BCS programs. Like FO's NFL coverage, this college football analysis goes past just ranking the FBS teams 1-120 to break down the strengths and weaknesses of each program.

As an added bonus, this year's Football Outsiders Almanac will be different from all those magazines on the newsstand... because it will be fully updated with post-lockout moves and free agency.

"The most accurate insight into why teams really win and lose." -- Jim Schwartz, head coach of the Detroit Lions

Inside Football Outsiders Almanac 2011

  • Groundbreaking team and player DVOA ratings that correct for situation and opponent to reveal which offenses and defenses are truly superior, and which players really help win games.
  • Exclusive data from the Football Outsiders Game Charting Project, unavailable in standard NFL stats, tells you which receivers run the longest patterns on both complete and incomplete passes; which quarterbacks benefit the most from yards after catch; which teams most often blitz or run specific offensive formations; and which defensive backs stop the other team's passing game, measured by pass coverage on every single play rather than just tackles.
  • Extensive coverage of all 32 teams with week-by-week stats from the 2010 season, five-year performance trends, and analysis of off-season personnel changes FULLY UPDATED WITH POST-LOCKOUT FREE AGENCY.
  • Exclusive 2011 predictions that give the odds on each team as a Super Bowl contender ... or a contender for the top pick in the 2012 draft.
  • 2011 fantasy football projections for more than 500 skill position players based on the KUBIAK forecasting system.
  • Breakdowns on more than 75 different college football teams and full win-loss projections for all 120 Division I-A (FBS) teams.

If you've never bought Football Outsiders Almanac and want to know what it's all about, check out these two samples from this year's book:

After you purchase the PDF version of Football Outsiders Almanac, click the "My FO Downloads" button to get your file. In the future, should we fix any errors, you can re-download the file free of charge.

If you wish to discuss Football Outsiders Almanac 2011, please visit the Football Outsiders Almanac discussion forum.

After you've purchased Football Outsiders Almanac 2011, if you want to skip around from chapter to chapter, make sure to click the "Bookmarks" menu in Adobe. You can click to the start of each chapter instead of having to page through the whole book.

Please be aware that if you have less than $12 in your Paypal account, your ability to download the spreadsheet may be delayed while Paypal waits for the transfer from your checking account to clear.

WORTH NOTING: If you pay by PayPal eCheck (as opposed to credit card or by direct transfer from PayPal funds), you may not be able to access your purchase for a few days. This is because PayPal takes a few days to verify funds (just like sending a real check), and is completely out of our control. Please take this fact into account before purchasing anything from Football Outsiders. Pretty please.

Football Outsiders Almanac 2011 (PDF)