Football Outsiders
Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Premium Access

Access to Football Outsiders' proprietary stats including:

DVOA Database

Expanded Player Pages

Weekly NFL Picks

 

DVOA Database

The DVOA database contains DVOA data back to 1986. Data is updated every Tuesday during the season. Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) and Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR) data goes back to 1995.

DVOA database can be utilized in a variety of ways to analyze:

  • DVOA based on:
    • Down
    • Field Position
    • Score Differential
  • Franchise DVOA over a 25-season span
  • Franchise DVOA for all 16 games of a regular season

 

 

Expanded Player Pages

The Expanded Player Pages contain player stats and game charting data. The last three years of player stats and the last year of game charting data are available to anyone, but Premium Access users get proprietary access to:

  • Regular season player stats dating back to 1991
  • Game charting data back to 2005
  • An archive of all FO articles relating to each player since 2003

 

 

Weekly NFL Picks

The Weekly Picks come in two forms – against the spread and straight-up. They are derived using a formula that incorporates splits of DVOA, as well as injury and weather data.

FO’s record of regular-season picks since 2008:

Against the Spread   Straight-Up
Season Record Accuracy
2018* 124-108-11 53.3%
2017* 115-112-10 50.6%
2016 121-112-13 51.8%
2015 114-130-9 46.8%
2014 111-136-9 45.1%
2013 119-130-7 47.9%
2012 144-104-8 57.8%
2011 127-117-12 52.0%
2010 141-108-7 56.1%
2009 127-121-8 51.2%
2008 133-114-8 53.7%
 
Season Record Accuracy
2018** 170-80-2 67.9%
2017*** 176-78 69.3%
2016 160-92-2 63.4%
2015 153-103 59.8%
2014 162-93-1 63.5%
2013 171-84-1 67.0%
2012 171-84-1 67.0%
2011 164-92 64.2%
2010 165-91 64.1%
2009 163-93 63.7%
2008 147-73-1 66.5%

 

* Top picks (FO line difference from actual line was more than a field goal) were 33-26-1 in 2017-2018.

No, we don't know what happened to our accurate picks from 2013-2015, but do not let this discourage you from purchasing Premium Access. We stand by our overall performance, and we won’t conceal our down years in order to gain more subscriptions through deceit. The good news is that our picks rebounded the following years, and Premium Access offers much more than just picks against the spread.

    ** 2018 Broken down by predicted line: 

    • Straight gap TD or more: 62-17, .785
    • Straight gap FG to TD: 69-35-1, .662
    • Straight gap less than FG: 39-28-1, .581
    • Playoffs: 6-5

    *** 2017 Broken down by predicted line: 

    • Straight gap TD or more: 70-16, 81.4%
    • Straight gap FG to TD: 65-35, 65.0%
    • Straight gap less than FG: 41-27, 60.3%

     

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