Football Outsiders

Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

Varsity Numbers

Varsity Numbers: Retrofitting
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Varsity Numbers: Retrofitting

Bill Connelly tries to make sense of some funky S&P+ rankings (Tennessee is 10th?) in the latest Varsity Numbers.

7 comments, Last at 02 Nov 2012, 4:27pm by hoegher_clone
Varsity Numbers: Adjusted Points Revisited
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Varsity Numbers: Adjusted Points Revisited

VN's Adjusted Points metric takes on West Virgnia's decline and notes that teams like Wisconsin and Boise State are getting stronger as the season goes on.

8 comments, Last at 30 Oct 2012, 8:50pm by EaglesFan
VN: Taking Stock after 7 Weeks
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VN: Taking Stock after 7 Weeks

With preseason projections fully phased out of the FO college football numbers, Bill Connelly takes a look at some of the more surprising midseason rankings. Which teams are for real?

1 comment, Last at 19 Oct 2012, 6:45pm by Kal
Varsity Numbers vs. Third Downs
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Varsity Numbers vs. Third Downs

Adjusted Third Down Rates will tell you that Taylor Martinez and company need to stay on schedule, while Mike Leach's Air Raid makes up for a lack of overall talent with solid adjusted conversion rates.

5 comments, Last at 13 Oct 2012, 8:20am by Bill Connelly
VN: The Weird, Wacky Big 12
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VN: The Weird, Wacky Big 12

Bill Connelly does a simulation to figure out what in the world to expect from the Big 12 over the next two months.

Varsity Numbers: Surprise!
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Varsity Numbers: Surprise!

A month into the 2012 college football season, Bill Connelly takes a look at September's surprising teams, for better and for worse.

4 comments, Last at 04 Oct 2012, 7:45am by DFK
Varsity Numbers: A Disruptive Presence
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Varsity Numbers: A Disruptive Presence

In this week's Varsity Numbers, Bill Connelly takes a look at the most disruptive defenses in the country, and when "disruptive" and "good" are not actually synonyms.

2 comments, Last at 21 Sep 2012, 1:56am by Kal
Varsity Numbers: Fun With Early Data
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Varsity Numbers: Fun With Early Data

Bill Connelly takes a look at hints early-season data can give us about teams like Nebraska, Penn State, Northwestern and Kansas.

VN: Embrace The Randomness
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VN: Embrace The Randomness

Bill Connelly takes a look at the role turnovers played in Week 1 of the college football season. Is there any wonder why college head coaches often go gray faster than U.S. presidents?

1 comment, Last at 07 Sep 2012, 5:03pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin
VN: Survival and Last-Second Projections
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VN: Survival and Last-Second Projections

After the Thursday and Friday undercard, the 2012 college football season starts in earnest tomorrow. It's time for some last-second projections and a conventional wisdom check.

4 comments, Last at 06 Sep 2012, 8:28am by jgrenci@zoominternet.net