Football Outsiders
Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis

2002 Team Efficiency Ratings

Regular season totals, playoffs not included

Revised as of 8/8/2008

These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2002, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league averaged based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)

OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.

As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST YEAR represents 2001 rank.


TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
YEAR
NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
1 TB 34.0% 6 36.1% 12-4 -2.5% 21 -33.6% 1 2.9% 8
2 OAK 30.6% 7 28.1% 11-5 24.4% 2 -6.0% 8 0.2% 15
3 PHI 25.3% 2 29.0% 12-4 6.7% 12 -13.8% 4 4.8% 5
4 MIA 25.0% 10 21.3% 9-7 6.2% 13 -16.1% 2 2.7% 9
5 KC 19.5% 20 17.8% 8-8 33.3% 1 16.3% 29 2.5% 10
6 DEN 16.3% 15 14.4% 9-7 16.9% 5 -1.0% 13 -1.7% 20
7 ATL 16.0% 24 17.8% 9-6-1 8.2% 8 -3.4% 11 4.4% 6
8 SF 13.2% 3 11.0% 10-6 19.3% 3 2.5% 18 -3.6% 26
9 NYJ 12.8% 9 9.6% 9-7 18.5% 4 11.0% 26 5.3% 4
10 NE 12.6% 12 9.0% 9-7 7.0% 10 0.3% 15 5.8% 3
11 NO 8.4% 21 8.4% 9-7 1.4% 19 3.1% 19 10.0% 1
12 GB 8.1% 4 14.0% 12-4 2.1% 18 -9.2% 5 -3.3% 25
13 TEN 8.1% 18 10.8% 11-5 9.5% 6 1.7% 17 0.2% 13
14 PIT 7.7% 5 7.3% 10-5-1 6.1% 14 -6.0% 9 -4.4% 28
15 NYG 0.8% 22 6.6% 10-6 5.4% 16 0.3% 14 -4.4% 27
16 CLE -0.2% 19 -2.8% 9-7 -6.6% 25 -4.4% 10 2.1% 12
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
LAST
YEAR
NON-ADJ
TOT VOA
W-L OFFENSE
DVOA
OFF.
RANK
DEFENSE
DVOA
DEF.
RANK
S.T.
DVOA
S.T.
RANK
17 BAL -1.3% 13 -9.9% 7-9 -5.4% 24 -6.6% 6 -2.5% 23
18 STL -1.6% 1 -6.7% 7-9 -3.7% 22 -2.7% 12 -0.6% 17
19 IND -1.9% 23 -2.4% 10-6 5.5% 15 5.4% 23 -2.0% 21
20 JAC -3.4% 16 1.5% 6-10 7.1% 9 9.3% 25 -1.3% 18
21 SEA -4.3% 17 -7.9% 7-9 6.9% 11 11.4% 27 0.2% 14
22 SD -4.6% 11 -7.0% 8-8 2.3% 17 5.2% 22 -1.6% 19
23 WAS -7.7% 14 -9.0% 7-9 -7.1% 26 -6.1% 7 -6.7% 31
24 CAR -9.2% 29 -8.4% 7-9 -22.9% 31 -13.9% 3 -0.2% 16
25 BUF -10.5% 31 -10.0% 8-8 -0.2% 20 7.7% 24 -2.6% 24
26 MIN -12.3% 30 -5.8% 6-10 8.5% 7 15.4% 28 -5.3% 30
27 CHI -16.3% 8 -17.8% 4-12 -15.1% 27 4.5% 21 3.3% 7
28 DAL -25.6% 26 -23.3% 5-11 -22.6% 30 0.6% 16 -2.4% 22
29 CIN -29.2% 27 -27.6% 2-14 -3.7% 23 17.4% 30 -8.1% 32
30 DET -35.4% 28 -30.9% 3-13 -20.3% 29 21.6% 32 6.5% 2
31 HOU -39.6% X -36.5% 4-12 -37.8% 32 4.1% 20 2.3% 11
32 ARI -42.0% 25 -46.6% 5-11 -16.2% 28 20.6% 31 -5.2% 29

  • ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index"
    that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific
    situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the
    second half when the score is close.  It then projects a number of wins
    adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of
    recovering fumbles.  It is based on the number of games a team has
    played so far, so teams which have not had their bye will appear
    higher.
  • WEIGHTED
    DVOA
    represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right
    now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more
    important than earlier games.
  • 2002 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest
    schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative).
  • PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent
    the number of wins projected from the team's points scored and allowed, as
    described in this
    article
    .
  • VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the
    team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, Cleveland) to least consistent (#32, St. Louis).


TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L ESTIM.
WINS
RANK WEIGHTED

DVOA
RANK 2002
SCHED
RANK PYTH
WINS
RANK VARIANCE RANK
1 TB 34.0% 12-4 12.0 1 28.9% 3 -1.6% 22 12.7 1 17.3% 22
2 OAK 30.6% 11-5 11.7 2 29.8% 2 5.2% 3 11.5 3 15.9% 18
3 PHI 25.3% 12-4 10.7 3 25.7% 4 -7.4% 32 12.5 2 16.8% 21
4 MIA 25.0% 9-7 10.4 4 23.6% 5 2.0% 9 10.1 5 22.1% 30
5 KC 19.5% 8-8 9.9 6 23.2% 6 5.4% 2 9.5 7 21.1% 29
6 DEN 16.3% 9-7 10.0 5 16.2% 8 5.8% 1 9.2 9 9.1% 3
7 ATL 16.0% 9-6-1 9.0 13 14.4% 9 -1.0% 19 10.3 4 20.2% 27
8 SF 13.2% 10-6 9.2 9 4.7% 14 -1.5% 21 8.4 17 7.9% 2
9 NYJ 12.8% 9-7 9.4 7 30.4% 1 3.5% 6 8.6 16 25.2% 31
10 NE 12.6% 9-7 9.3 8 4.6% 15 4.8% 4 8.9 14 15.7% 16
11 NO 8.4% 9-7 9.1 11 7.4% 12 0.5% 13 9.0 13 16.3% 20
12 GB 8.1% 12-4 9.2 10 10.9% 11 -2.1% 24 9.8 6 13.1% 12
13 TEN 8.1% 11-5 9.0 12 20.1% 7 -4.8% 29 9.2 10 13.0% 10
14 PIT 7.7% 10-5-1 8.7 14 13.1% 10 -0.4% 18 9.2 11 11.6% 8
15 NYG 0.8% 10-6 8.1 19 6.7% 13 -5.2% 31 9.3 8 9.5% 5
16 CLE -0.2% 9-7 8.6 15 -3.4% 20 -0.1% 15 8.7 15 7.6% 1
TEAM TOTAL
DVOA
W-L ESTIM.
WINS
RANK WEIGHTED

DVOA
RANK 2002
SCHED
RANK PYTH
WINS
RANK VARIANCE RANK
17 BAL -1.3% 7-9 8.5 16 -1.3% 19 0.6% 11 6.9 22 11.4% 7
18 STL -1.6% 7-9 8.2 17 0.2% 17 0.4% 14 6.5 24 26.8% 32
19 IND -1.9% 10-6 8.1 18 -6.3% 22 -3.7% 27 9.0 12 12.7% 9
20 JAC -3.4% 6-10 7.4 21 -7.7% 23 -4.0% 28 8.4 18 13.7% 13
21 SEA -4.3% 7-9 6.8 25 0.1% 18 -0.2% 17 7.6 19 15.7% 17
22 SD -4.6% 8-8 7.4 22 -10.0% 24 4.3% 5 7.1 21 20.0% 26
23 WAS -7.7% 7-9 7.7 20 -4.4% 21 -3.4% 26 6.4 26 20.7% 28
24 CAR -9.2% 7-9 6.9 23 -15.6% 26 -1.9% 23 6.5 25 19.8% 25
25 BUF -10.5% 8-8 6.8 24 -10.5% 25 2.4% 7 7.6 20 18.7% 23
26 MIN -12.3% 6-10 6.2 27 1.0% 16 -0.1% 16 6.8 23 15.3% 15
27 CHI -16.3% 4-12 6.3 26 -20.3% 27 2.1% 8 5.3 27 13.1% 11
28 DAL -25.6% 5-11 5.2 28 -35.4% 29 -5.0% 30 4.3 29 13.8% 14
29 CIN -29.2% 2-14 4.0 29 -20.7% 28 0.6% 12 3.8 31 16.0% 19
30 DET -35.4% 3-13 3.5 30 -37.1% 30 -1.2% 20 4.6 28 9.1% 4
31 HOU -39.6% 4-12 2.7 32 -37.7% 31 -2.5% 25 3.7 32 10.5% 6
32 ARI -42.0% 5-11 3.1 31 -53.4% 32 1.5% 10 4.0 30 19.1% 24

DVOA version: 5.0