Regular season totals, playoffs not included
Revised as of 8/8/2008
These are the Football Outsiders team efficiency ratings for 2002, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league averaged based on situation in order to determine value over average. (Explained further here.)
OFFENSE and DEFENSE DVOA are adjusted based on strength of opponent as well as to consider all fumbles, kept or lost, as equal value. SPECIAL DVOA is adjusted for type of stadium (warm, cold, dome, Denver) and week of season. NON-ADJ TOTAL VOA does not include these adjustments.
As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. LAST YEAR represents 2001 rank.
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
LAST YEAR |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 1 | TB | 34.0% | 6 | 36.1% | 12-4 | -2.5% | 21 | -33.6% | 1 | 2.9% | 8 |
| 2 | OAK | 30.6% | 7 | 28.1% | 11-5 | 24.4% | 2 | -6.0% | 8 | 0.2% | 15 |
| 3 | PHI | 25.3% | 2 | 29.0% | 12-4 | 6.7% | 12 | -13.8% | 4 | 4.8% | 5 |
| 4 | MIA | 25.0% | 10 | 21.3% | 9-7 | 6.2% | 13 | -16.1% | 2 | 2.7% | 9 |
| 5 | KC | 19.5% | 20 | 17.8% | 8-8 | 33.3% | 1 | 16.3% | 29 | 2.5% | 10 |
| 6 | DEN | 16.3% | 15 | 14.4% | 9-7 | 16.9% | 5 | -1.0% | 13 | -1.7% | 20 |
| 7 | ATL | 16.0% | 24 | 17.8% | 9-6-1 | 8.2% | 8 | -3.4% | 11 | 4.4% | 6 |
| 8 | SF | 13.2% | 3 | 11.0% | 10-6 | 19.3% | 3 | 2.5% | 18 | -3.6% | 26 |
| 9 | NYJ | 12.8% | 9 | 9.6% | 9-7 | 18.5% | 4 | 11.0% | 26 | 5.3% | 4 |
| 10 | NE | 12.6% | 12 | 9.0% | 9-7 | 7.0% | 10 | 0.3% | 15 | 5.8% | 3 |
| 11 | NO | 8.4% | 21 | 8.4% | 9-7 | 1.4% | 19 | 3.1% | 19 | 10.0% | 1 |
| 12 | GB | 8.1% | 4 | 14.0% | 12-4 | 2.1% | 18 | -9.2% | 5 | -3.3% | 25 |
| 13 | TEN | 8.1% | 18 | 10.8% | 11-5 | 9.5% | 6 | 1.7% | 17 | 0.2% | 13 |
| 14 | PIT | 7.7% | 5 | 7.3% | 10-5-1 | 6.1% | 14 | -6.0% | 9 | -4.4% | 28 |
| 15 | NYG | 0.8% | 22 | 6.6% | 10-6 | 5.4% | 16 | 0.3% | 14 | -4.4% | 27 |
| 16 | CLE | -0.2% | 19 | -2.8% | 9-7 | -6.6% | 25 | -4.4% | 10 | 2.1% | 12 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
LAST YEAR |
NON-ADJ TOT VOA |
W-L |
OFFENSE DVOA |
OFF. RANK |
DEFENSE DVOA |
DEF. RANK |
S.T. DVOA |
S.T. RANK |
|
| 17 | BAL | -1.3% | 13 | -9.9% | 7-9 | -5.4% | 24 | -6.6% | 6 | -2.5% | 23 |
| 18 | STL | -1.6% | 1 | -6.7% | 7-9 | -3.7% | 22 | -2.7% | 12 | -0.6% | 17 |
| 19 | IND | -1.9% | 23 | -2.4% | 10-6 | 5.5% | 15 | 5.4% | 23 | -2.0% | 21 |
| 20 | JAC | -3.4% | 16 | 1.5% | 6-10 | 7.1% | 9 | 9.3% | 25 | -1.3% | 18 |
| 21 | SEA | -4.3% | 17 | -7.9% | 7-9 | 6.9% | 11 | 11.4% | 27 | 0.2% | 14 |
| 22 | SD | -4.6% | 11 | -7.0% | 8-8 | 2.3% | 17 | 5.2% | 22 | -1.6% | 19 |
| 23 | WAS | -7.7% | 14 | -9.0% | 7-9 | -7.1% | 26 | -6.1% | 7 | -6.7% | 31 |
| 24 | CAR | -9.2% | 29 | -8.4% | 7-9 | -22.9% | 31 | -13.9% | 3 | -0.2% | 16 |
| 25 | BUF | -10.5% | 31 | -10.0% | 8-8 | -0.2% | 20 | 7.7% | 24 | -2.6% | 24 |
| 26 | MIN | -12.3% | 30 | -5.8% | 6-10 | 8.5% | 7 | 15.4% | 28 | -5.3% | 30 |
| 27 | CHI | -16.3% | 8 | -17.8% | 4-12 | -15.1% | 27 | 4.5% | 21 | 3.3% | 7 |
| 28 | DAL | -25.6% | 26 | -23.3% | 5-11 | -22.6% | 30 | 0.6% | 16 | -2.4% | 22 |
| 29 | CIN | -29.2% | 27 | -27.6% | 2-14 | -3.7% | 23 | 17.4% | 30 | -8.1% | 32 |
| 30 | DET | -35.4% | 28 | -30.9% | 3-13 | -20.3% | 29 | 21.6% | 32 | 6.5% | 2 |
| 31 | HOU | -39.6% | X | -36.5% | 4-12 | -37.8% | 32 | 4.1% | 20 | 2.3% | 11 |
| 32 | ARI | -42.0% | 25 | -46.6% | 5-11 | -16.2% | 28 | 20.6% | 31 | -5.2% | 29 |
- ESTIMATED WINS uses a statistic known as "Forest Index"
that emphasizes consistency as well as DVOA in the most important specific
situations: red zone defense, first quarter offense, and performance in the
second half when the score is close. It then projects a number of wins
adjusted to a league-average schedule and a league-average rate of
recovering fumbles. It is based on the number of games a team has
played so far, so teams which have not had their bye will appear
higher. - WEIGHTED
DVOA represents an attempt to figure out how a team is playing right
now, as opposed to over the season as a whole, by making recent games more
important than earlier games. - 2002 SCHEDULE lists average DVOA of opponents played this season, ranked from hardest
schedule (#1, most positive) to easiest schedule (#32, most negative). - PYTHAGOREAN WINS represent
the number of wins projected from the team's points scored and allowed, as
described in this
article. - VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the
team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from most consistent (#1, Cleveland) to least consistent (#32, St. Louis).
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
2002 SCHED |
RANK |
PYTH WINS |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 1 | TB | 34.0% | 12-4 | 12.0 | 1 | 28.9% | 3 | -1.6% | 22 | 12.7 | 1 | 17.3% | 22 |
| 2 | OAK | 30.6% | 11-5 | 11.7 | 2 | 29.8% | 2 | 5.2% | 3 | 11.5 | 3 | 15.9% | 18 |
| 3 | PHI | 25.3% | 12-4 | 10.7 | 3 | 25.7% | 4 | -7.4% | 32 | 12.5 | 2 | 16.8% | 21 |
| 4 | MIA | 25.0% | 9-7 | 10.4 | 4 | 23.6% | 5 | 2.0% | 9 | 10.1 | 5 | 22.1% | 30 |
| 5 | KC | 19.5% | 8-8 | 9.9 | 6 | 23.2% | 6 | 5.4% | 2 | 9.5 | 7 | 21.1% | 29 |
| 6 | DEN | 16.3% | 9-7 | 10.0 | 5 | 16.2% | 8 | 5.8% | 1 | 9.2 | 9 | 9.1% | 3 |
| 7 | ATL | 16.0% | 9-6-1 | 9.0 | 13 | 14.4% | 9 | -1.0% | 19 | 10.3 | 4 | 20.2% | 27 |
| 8 | SF | 13.2% | 10-6 | 9.2 | 9 | 4.7% | 14 | -1.5% | 21 | 8.4 | 17 | 7.9% | 2 |
| 9 | NYJ | 12.8% | 9-7 | 9.4 | 7 | 30.4% | 1 | 3.5% | 6 | 8.6 | 16 | 25.2% | 31 |
| 10 | NE | 12.6% | 9-7 | 9.3 | 8 | 4.6% | 15 | 4.8% | 4 | 8.9 | 14 | 15.7% | 16 |
| 11 | NO | 8.4% | 9-7 | 9.1 | 11 | 7.4% | 12 | 0.5% | 13 | 9.0 | 13 | 16.3% | 20 |
| 12 | GB | 8.1% | 12-4 | 9.2 | 10 | 10.9% | 11 | -2.1% | 24 | 9.8 | 6 | 13.1% | 12 |
| 13 | TEN | 8.1% | 11-5 | 9.0 | 12 | 20.1% | 7 | -4.8% | 29 | 9.2 | 10 | 13.0% | 10 |
| 14 | PIT | 7.7% | 10-5-1 | 8.7 | 14 | 13.1% | 10 | -0.4% | 18 | 9.2 | 11 | 11.6% | 8 |
| 15 | NYG | 0.8% | 10-6 | 8.1 | 19 | 6.7% | 13 | -5.2% | 31 | 9.3 | 8 | 9.5% | 5 |
| 16 | CLE | -0.2% | 9-7 | 8.6 | 15 | -3.4% | 20 | -0.1% | 15 | 8.7 | 15 | 7.6% | 1 |
| TEAM |
TOTAL DVOA |
W-L |
ESTIM. WINS |
RANK |
WEIGHTED DVOA |
RANK |
2002 SCHED |
RANK |
PYTH WINS |
RANK | VARIANCE | RANK | |
| 17 | BAL | -1.3% | 7-9 | 8.5 | 16 | -1.3% | 19 | 0.6% | 11 | 6.9 | 22 | 11.4% | 7 |
| 18 | STL | -1.6% | 7-9 | 8.2 | 17 | 0.2% | 17 | 0.4% | 14 | 6.5 | 24 | 26.8% | 32 |
| 19 | IND | -1.9% | 10-6 | 8.1 | 18 | -6.3% | 22 | -3.7% | 27 | 9.0 | 12 | 12.7% | 9 |
| 20 | JAC | -3.4% | 6-10 | 7.4 | 21 | -7.7% | 23 | -4.0% | 28 | 8.4 | 18 | 13.7% | 13 |
| 21 | SEA | -4.3% | 7-9 | 6.8 | 25 | 0.1% | 18 | -0.2% | 17 | 7.6 | 19 | 15.7% | 17 |
| 22 | SD | -4.6% | 8-8 | 7.4 | 22 | -10.0% | 24 | 4.3% | 5 | 7.1 | 21 | 20.0% | 26 |
| 23 | WAS | -7.7% | 7-9 | 7.7 | 20 | -4.4% | 21 | -3.4% | 26 | 6.4 | 26 | 20.7% | 28 |
| 24 | CAR | -9.2% | 7-9 | 6.9 | 23 | -15.6% | 26 | -1.9% | 23 | 6.5 | 25 | 19.8% | 25 |
| 25 | BUF | -10.5% | 8-8 | 6.8 | 24 | -10.5% | 25 | 2.4% | 7 | 7.6 | 20 | 18.7% | 23 |
| 26 | MIN | -12.3% | 6-10 | 6.2 | 27 | 1.0% | 16 | -0.1% | 16 | 6.8 | 23 | 15.3% | 15 |
| 27 | CHI | -16.3% | 4-12 | 6.3 | 26 | -20.3% | 27 | 2.1% | 8 | 5.3 | 27 | 13.1% | 11 |
| 28 | DAL | -25.6% | 5-11 | 5.2 | 28 | -35.4% | 29 | -5.0% | 30 | 4.3 | 29 | 13.8% | 14 |
| 29 | CIN | -29.2% | 2-14 | 4.0 | 29 | -20.7% | 28 | 0.6% | 12 | 3.8 | 31 | 16.0% | 19 |
| 30 | DET | -35.4% | 3-13 | 3.5 | 30 | -37.1% | 30 | -1.2% | 20 | 4.6 | 28 | 9.1% | 4 |
| 31 | HOU | -39.6% | 4-12 | 2.7 | 32 | -37.7% | 31 | -2.5% | 25 | 3.7 | 32 | 10.5% | 6 |
| 32 | ARI | -42.0% | 5-11 | 3.1 | 31 | -53.4% | 32 | 1.5% | 10 | 4.0 | 30 | 19.1% | 24 |
DVOA version: 5.0