Buffalo Bills

AFC East

A+

Overall Team DVOA

38.2% 1st

Josh Allen hasn't matched his MVP-worthy 25.9% passing DVOA from a breakout 2020 so far in 2021. His 1.1% DVOA this season is middle of the pack at 19th among the 32 starters. But that has hardly been a problem with the team clicking around him, especially on defense where the unit's -49.4% DVOA rate is the third best at the quarter pole of a season in the DVOA era. Some of that hot defensive start likely comes from a soft opening schedule that has featured declining, rookie, and backup quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissett, Taylor Heinicke, and Davis Mills. But the Bills can affirm their standing as a Super Bowl contender with continued standout play against their better upcoming opponents, most notably the Chiefs in Week 5. - Scott Spratt

DVOA Team Rankings

Through Week 8

Total DVOA
38.2%1st
Offense
7.2%10th
Defense
-30.1%1st
Special Teams
0.8%11th
Weighted DVOA
39.3%1st
Unadj. Total VOA
52.4%1st
Future Schedule
-11.8%32nd
Past Schedule
-12.1%32nd

2021 Season Projections

Mean Projection
10.2 wins4th
Projected Schedule
-2.4%29th
Projected DVOA
11.3%5th
Playoff Contender (9-11 wins)
42.0%1st
Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins)
32.6%4th
Win Super Bowl
6.7%4th
Playoff Contender (9-11 wins)
42.0%1st
Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins)
32.6%4th
Win Super Bowl
6.7%4th

View DVOA Database

Football Outsiders Almanac 2021