Buffalo Bills

AFC East

D

Overall Team DVOA

-20.0% 24th

Bills fans hoping that quarterback Josh Allen would avoid plexiglass regression in Year 4 suffered through a tough start in Week 1. The Steelers held Allen to a 59% completion rate, one touchdown, and a -32.2% passing DVOA in an upset in Buffalo, and they defended the Bills with a week-low 1.8% blitz rate that ran counter to their typical tendency and that of other teams from  2020. The Steelers blitzed on 40.3% of their defensive plays last year, and teams in general blitzed Allen 39.5% of his dropbacks. It will be interesting to see if the Steelers provided a blueprint for other teams to defend the new star Allen or whether they simply have the horses on last year's No. 1 DVOA defense to shut down any quarterback. - Scott Spratt

DVOA Team Rankings

Through Week 1

Total DVOA
-20.0%24th
Offense
-26.1%27th
Defense
-13.1%8th
Special Teams
-7.0%28th
Weighted DVOA
-20.0%24th
Unadj. Total VOA
-14.2%24th
Future Schedule
-8.6%27th
Past Schedule
4.4%16th

2021 Season Projections

Mean Projection
10.2 wins4th
Projected Schedule
-2.4%29th
Projected DVOA
11.3%5th
Playoff Contender (9-11 wins)
42.0%1st
Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins)
32.6%4th
Win Super Bowl
6.7%4th
Playoff Contender (9-11 wins)
42.0%1st
Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins)
32.6%4th
Win Super Bowl
6.7%4th

View DVOA Database

Football Outsiders Almanac 2021