Buffalo Bills

AFC East

A

Overall Team DVOA

27.6% 2nd

The Bills suffered an agonizing blown lead in the final 13 seconds of their divisional round matchup with their AFC rival Chiefs, and their front office responded with moves this offseason Football Outsiders would seldom support. They paid top free agent money for a player in his 30s in Von Miller. They traded up in the first round of the draft and picked a player in cornerback Kaiir Elam for his positional need. And they drafted a running back in James Cook in the second round and a specialist in punter Matt Araiza in the sixth round. Those moves could hurt the team in the long run, but the Bills have the No. 1 team DVOA projection for 2022 and are entering their final year with star quarterback Josh Allen on a discount on their salary cap. The Bills have real urgency to win a Super Bowl in the next couple of years, and they are taking their shot.. - Scott Spratt

DVOA Team Rankings

Through Week 22

Total DVOA
27.6%2nd
Offense
9.7%10th
Defense
-18.0%1st
Special Teams
-0.1%19th
Weighted DVOA
26.1%3rd
Unadj. Total VOA
34.2%1st
Pythagorean Wins
13.31st
Schedule Strength
-5.0%32nd

2021 Season Projections

Mean Projection
10.2 wins4th
Projected Schedule
-2.4%29th
Projected DVOA
11.3%5th
Playoff Contender (9-11 wins)
42.0%1st
Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins)
32.6%4th
Win Super Bowl
6.7%4th
Playoff Contender (9-11 wins)
42.0%1st
Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins)
32.6%4th
Win Super Bowl
6.7%4th

View DVOA Database

Football Outsiders Almanac 2021