San Francisco 49ers

NFC West

A

Overall Team DVOA

19.9% 6th

When San Francisco traded up to draft Trey Lance in the 2021 NFL Draft, it seemed like the upcoming season would represent a transitional year where the team both tried to break in a new quarterback and make a playoff push. Well, only the second half of that happened, and the Jimmy Garoppolo-led 49ers made some unexpected noise in the NFC playoffs. Alas, San Francisco's underdog run through the playoffs ended against their division rivals in Los Angeles, and now the page turns to an offseason rife with unknowns. They seem very likely to move on from their incumbent starting quarterback, given that his replacement is already on the roster, but what if they decide to hold off on that for another season? Most teams don't ditch their starter after making a conference championship and a Super Bowl in a three-year span. But after how the San Francisco offense was limited late against Los Angeles' star-studded front, I can't imagine that Kyle Shanahan and company have too much more patience for Garoppolo, setting the stage for the beginning of the Trey Lance era in the Bay. -- Carl Yedor

DVOA Team Rankings

Through Week 22

Total DVOA
19.9%6th
Offense
14.9%5th
Defense
-7.4%7th
Special Teams
-2.4%26th
Weighted DVOA
25.2%5th
Unadj. Total VOA
18.4%6th
Pythagorean Wins
10.112th
Schedule Strength
-0.5%21st

2021 Season Projections

Mean Projection
9.7 wins7th
Projected Schedule
-2.0%25th
Projected DVOA
8.2%8th
Playoff Contender (9-11 wins)
41.2%4th
Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins)
26.2%7th
Win Super Bowl
4.4%9th
Playoff Contender (9-11 wins)
41.2%4th
Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins)
26.2%7th
Win Super Bowl
4.4%9th

View DVOA Database

Football Outsiders Almanac 2021