San Francisco 49ers

NFC West

A

Overall Team DVOA

19.9% 6th

Most teams that reach the Conference Championship round don't replace their quarterbacks the following year if said quarterback does not retire, but that is exactly the situation in which the 49ers find themselves. After drafting Trey Lance No. 3 overall, San Francisco had him ride the bench for most of the year as Jimmy Garoppolo piloted the team oh so close to another Super Bowl appearance. But the 49ers are moving on in favor of the inexperienced yet talented Lance, and he will have to hit the ground running if the team is to replicate its recent playoff success. Given Lance's lack of in-game reps over the past two seasons dating back to college, uncertainty along an offensive line in flux, and some likely marginal defensive regression, we expect the team to take a bit of a step back in 2022, but letting Lance take his lumps now will likely be best for the team's long-term outlook even if the team ends up missing the playoffs. -- Carl Yedor

DVOA Team Rankings

Through Week 22

Total DVOA
19.9%6th
Offense
14.9%5th
Defense
-7.4%7th
Special Teams
-2.4%26th
Weighted DVOA
25.2%5th
Unadj. Total VOA
18.4%6th
Pythagorean Wins
10.112th
Schedule Strength
-0.5%21st

2021 Season Projections

Mean Projection
9.7 wins7th
Projected Schedule
-2.0%25th
Projected DVOA
8.2%8th
Playoff Contender (9-11 wins)
41.2%4th
Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins)
26.2%7th
Win Super Bowl
4.4%9th
Playoff Contender (9-11 wins)
41.2%4th
Super Bowl Contender (12+ wins)
26.2%7th
Win Super Bowl
4.4%9th

View DVOA Database

Football Outsiders Almanac 2021