Under The Cap: Rookie Signings

by Brian McIntyre
In order to preserve a normal training camp and preseason, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay has said a new labor deal would need to be in place by July 4. Of course, if 2011 at all resembled a normal NFL offseason, teams would be wrapping up their "Organized Team Activity" sessions this week before taking six weeks off before training camp. This would also be the stretch of the offseason where football administration departments would be attempting to get their unsigned draft choices under contract.
The conventional wisdom when it comes to signing draft picks is that nothing gets done until camp is approaching. New Orleans Saints right tackle Jon Stinchcomb said as much last week, when he likened the current state of the labor talks to the signing of draft picks.
"My guess is it's starting to become crunch time," Stinchcomb told the New Orleans Times-Picayune. "For both sides. When CBAs are expiring it's always those last minute deals. You know, the same thing we see every year with the draft picks. The draft is in April and nobody gets signed until late in July. So I think it's that same mentality -- until your feet are pressed to the fire, that's when you get that sense of urgency."
While that's largely been true of the Saints' approach to signing draft picks, and remains the way teams approach first- and second-round picks, NFL front offices have become more proactive in recent years when it comes to signing their mid-to-late round draft choices.
Using Irsay's unofficial Independence Day deadline as a guide, records from the former players union show just more than 10 percent of the 2006 draft class was signed by July 4, 2006. During the past four offseasons, that figure has skyrocketed to where more than 46 percent of the 2010 draft class had signed their first NFL contract by July 4.
Ultimately, we're only talking about a handful (or two) of essentially slotted rookie contracts per team that will need to be negotiated when the 2011 league year begins. But with veteran and undrafted rookie free agency coinciding with draftee signings, the nine weeks of post-draft inactivity due to the lockout means football administration departments will be working overtime during a part of the NFL calendar they're usually negotiating one or two early-round contracts before camp.
Percentage of NFL Draft Choices Signed by July 4 | |||
Year
|
Drafted
|
Signed
|
% Signed
|
2006 |
255
|
26
|
10.2%
|
2007 |
255
|
69
|
27.1%
|
2008 |
252
|
70
|
27.8%
|
2009 |
256
|
102
|
39.8%
|
2010 |
255
|
118
|
46.3%
|
Total |
1273
|
385
|
30.2%
|
The 118 players signed last year had contracts totaling $230.6 million, with just less than $29 million in signing bonuses and guarantees. Those totals are without any of the first- or second-round picks, as St. Louis Rams third-round cornerback Jerome Murphy (first pick in round three, 65th overall) was the highest drafted player with a signed contract.
Twelve other third-round picks (13 of 34 total) had signed, as had 23 of the 33 fourth round picks, 22 of the 38 fifth round picks, 27 of the 38 sixth round picks, and 33 of the 48 players chosen in the seventh round.
Only six teams -- the Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and Oakland Raiders -- did not sign a draft pick prior to last July 4.
Team-by-Team Percentage of Signed Draft Choices by July 4, 2006-2010 | |||
Team
|
Drafted
|
Signed
|
% Signed
|
Chicago |
42
|
38
|
90.5%
|
Philadelphia |
47
|
32
|
68.1%
|
Washington |
33
|
19
|
57.6%
|
Pittsburgh |
43
|
21
|
48.8%
|
Miami |
41
|
20
|
48.8%
|
Atlanta |
42
|
20
|
47.6%
|
Seattle |
37
|
17
|
45.9%
|
NY Giants |
38
|
17
|
44.7%
|
San Francisco |
39
|
16
|
41.0%
|
Tampa Bay |
42
|
15
|
35.7%
|
Buffalo |
43
|
14
|
32.6%
|
Arizona |
34
|
11
|
32.4%
|
Houston |
38
|
11
|
28.9%
|
Carolina |
42
|
12
|
28.6%
|
Tennessee |
47
|
13
|
27.7%
|
St. Louis |
44
|
12
|
27.3%
|
Team
|
Drafted
|
Signed
|
% Signed
|
NY Jets |
27
|
7
|
25.9%
|
Green Bay |
47
|
12
|
25.5%
|
Jacksonville |
37
|
9
|
24.3%
|
Baltimore |
40
|
9
|
22.5%
|
Kansas City |
41
|
9
|
22.0%
|
Minnesota |
33
|
7
|
21.2%
|
San Diego |
33
|
7
|
21.2%
|
New Orleans |
31
|
6
|
19.4%
|
Detroit |
40
|
7
|
17.5%
|
New England |
50
|
8
|
16.0%
|
Denver |
39
|
6
|
15.4%
|
Cincinnati |
45
|
5
|
11.1%
|
Oakland |
39
|
4
|
10.3%
|
Cleveland |
38
|
1
|
2.6%
|
Dallas |
40
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Indianapolis |
41
|
0
|
0.0%
|
Total |
1273
|
385
|
30.2%
|
The Bears percentage is really 92.9 percent, as 2007 first-round tight end Greg Olsen signed on July 5. Bears Senior Director of Football Administration Cliff Stein has only had one pick (2007 second-round defensive end Dan Bazuin) not signed by the rookie reporting date for training camp. The Jets signed 2007 sixth-round offensive lineman Jacob Bender on July 5, which would boost their percentage to 29.6 percent.
In the last five years, the Cowboys haven't signed a draft pick before July 15, while the earliest the Colts have signed a pick was July 23.
Comments
5 comments, Last at 23 Jun 2011, 9:01am
#1 by Sophandros // Jun 21, 2011 - 12:20pm
FWIW, I took the above chart and compared it to regular season winning percentage over the same time frame, and found that there was almost no correlation. Not surprising, just an observation.
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#2 by Tom Gower // Jun 21, 2011 - 1:54pm
So in other words, if there's no deal by July 4, the Colts can't piggyback off other teams setting the market and have to deal with more uncertainty in signing rookies? That certainly sounds like a terrible, terrible tragedy to me.
#3 by John (not verified) // Jun 21, 2011 - 4:06pm
Apropos of nothing, it's at least mildly curious that the teams with the most and fewest draft picks over the indicated time period are both in the AFC East. The Jets are nearly 13 picks below the mean.
#4 by Anonymous1 (not verified) // Jun 22, 2011 - 8:46pm
I guess that would have to indicate either picks traded away for veteran players, or a lack of supplemental picks, right?
#5 by Dean // Jun 23, 2011 - 9:01am
Or trading up on draft day.