Under the Cap: 2012 Offense Tag Projections
by Brian McIntyre
With the end of the NFL regular season, the focus in 20 NFL cities is on 2012 free agency and which players might receive a franchise (or transition) tag this offseason.
Under the new collective bargaining agreement, the formula for determining the amount of the franchise and transition tags has changed. Instead of taking the average of the top-5 salary cap numbers from the previous season at each position -- top-10 for the transition tag -- the franchise and transition tag numbers will now be a percentage of the salary cap. To determine the percentage, the amounts of the franchise and transition tags at each position from the previous five seasons will be added up and divided by the sum of the salary caps from the previous five seasons (for the uncapped 2010 season, the league will take the average of the 2009 and 2011 salary caps). The resulting percentage will be multiplied by the salary cap from the upcoming season to determine the non-exclusive franchise tag and transition tag amounts. (The exclusive franchise tag will be the greater of the franchise tag under the new calculation or the average of the largest five salaries at that position at the end of the restricted free agent period.)
Several weeks back, former NFL general manager Charley Casserly reported during his "NFL Insider" segment on the CBS pregame show that the 2012 salary cap will be "roughly the same" as it was in 2011, allowing us to offer up some projections on what the 2012 franchise and transition tenders will look like, and make some guesses on which players are likely to receive a tender.
Since the exact 2012 salary cap number is not yet known, we've listed a projected range for each tender amount. The lower tender amount is based on the 2011 salary cap figure of $120.375 million per club, with the higher amount based on an estimated 2012 salary cap number of $125 million per club.
This article has been posted in two parts. Click here for analysis of defense.
Quarterbacks
Projected Franchise Tender: $14.374M - $14.926M
Projected Transition Tender: $12.409M - $12.886M
Drew Brees is scheduled to be an unrestricted free agent, but there is no chance the Saints let him leave New Orleans. If a long-term extension is not reached by end of February, Casserly reported that they will use the franchise tag to continue negotiations on a long-term contract. Brees is coming off one of the best quarterback seasons in NFL history, passing for an NFL-record 5,476 yards and leading the league with 46 touchdown passes. Brees has not missed a game due to injury during his six seasons in New Orleans and turns 33 on January 15, the same age Tom Brady was when he signed his four-year, $72 million contract extension in 2010 that included nearly $50 million in guarantees. Brees' agent is Tom Condon of CAA Football, who negotiated Peyton Manning's contract in July and who secured a record $50 million guaranteed from the St. Louis Rams for 2010 first overall pick Sam Bradford. Manning and Brady's guarantees were $48 million apiece. It would not be a surprise if Brees tops $50 million in his next deal.
After playing 2011 under a one-year, $4 million contract (with $3 million in available incentives), 49ers quarterback Alex Smith largely did what was asked of him by first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh, passing for 3,150 yards and 17 touchdowns with just five interceptions. The 49ers invested a 2011 second-round pick in quarterback Colin Kaepernick, but could look to keep Smith, who turns 28 in the offseason, around for the next few seasons.
Other notable FA quarterbacks: Kyle Orton, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Byron Leftwich, Rex Grossman, Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, Brady Quinn, Dan Orlovsky, Josh Johnson, Matt Flynn, David Carr, Kellen Clemens, Derek Anderson, Josh McCown, Jake Delhomme
Running Backs
Projected Franchise Tender: $7.778M - $8.088M
Projected Transition Tender: $6.691M - $6.949M
Ravens running back Ray Rice finished second to Maurice Jones-Drew in rushing yards (with a career-high 1,364) and, combined with his 76 receptions for 704 yards, led the NFL in yards from scrimmage (2,068). Rice is a two-time Pro Bowler who has missed three games in his career and won't turn 25 until January 22, the day of the AFC and NFC Championship Games, which the Ravens may very well be involved in. At nearly $8 million, Rice would be a steal.
In his first three seasons in the NFL, Bears running back Matt Forte did not miss a game, ran for over 3,200 yards, caught 170 passes and scored 25 touchdowns. Forte sought a new contract after the lockout ended, but was looking to receive DeAngelo Williams money -– five-years, $40 million, $20 million guaranteed –- and reportedly turned down an offer that included between $13 and $15 million in guaranteed money. Prior to spraining the MCL in his left knee on December 4, Forte had accounted for 38 percent of the Bears' offensive yardage. The Bears are likely to use the tag on Forte in February.
The Seattle Seahawks could use the franchise tag on Marshawn Lynch, who became the team's first 1,000-yard rusher since Shaun Alexander in 2005. Acquiring Lynch from the Buffalo Bills was a six-month process for Seahawks general manager John Schneider, and given Lynch's role in the running game's improvement, it's unlikely he walks after just 29 regular and post-season games.
Other notable FA running backs: Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, Michael Bush, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Tim Hightower, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jason Snelling, Jackie Battle, Peyton Hillis
Wide Receivers
Projected Franchise Tender: $9.443M - $9.806M
Projected Transition Tender: $8.477M - $8.802M
Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson played 2011 under the one-year franchise tag and caught 60 passes for 1,106 yards and a team-high nine touchdowns. For the Chargers to franchise Jackson again in 2012, they would have to fork over $13.709 million, or 120 percent of his 2011 tender.
Patriots wide receiver Wes Welker led the NFL in receptions (122) and was second behind Detroit's Calvin Johnson in receiving yards (1,569). Welker is the only key cog of the Patriots unsigned for 2012, and while he's on the wrong side of 30, it would be surprising if New England let Welker test the free agent market.
You may have learned last season that Eagles wide receiver DeSean Jackson wants a new contract. After making it through the season in one piece, he appears to understand that he didn't go about it the right way. There is no denying Jackson's big-play ability -– he owns 17.8-yard average on 230 career receptions -– but it would be understandable for the Eagles to have reservations about making a large financial commitment to Jackson. The Eagles could gain considerable leverage in contract talks with the franchise tag, as Jackson would not start seeing checks from the franchise salary until September.
Chiefs wide receiver Dwayne Bowe is coming off back-to-back 1,100-yard seasons and is one season removed from a 15-touchdown performance. The Chiefs invested a 2011 first-round pick in Jonathan Baldwin and signed Steve Breaston in free agency after the lockout, but Bowe is easily their best receiver and is an inherited player Scott Pioli should want to keep for the long-term.
If the Saints are able to secure a long-term deal with Brees, they could use the tag on Marques Colston, who, with five 1,000-yard seasons to go along with his 48 touchdowns over the last six seasons, may be the most consistently productive wide receiver to not make the Pro Bowl.
Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson has posted back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and has 17 touchdowns over his last 32 games. While his propensity for Ochocinco-esque behavior may give the front office pause, he has No. 1 receiver talent and should be brought back.
Other notable FA wide receivers: Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, Plaxico Burress, Robert Meachem, Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton, Steve Smith (PHI), Brandon Lloyd, Mario Manningham, Ted Ginn, Harry Douglas, Eddie Royal, Early Doucet, Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, Laurent Robinson, Josh Morgan, Chaz Schilens
Tight Ends
Projected Franchise Tender: $5.416M - $5.624M
Projected Transition Tender: $4.673M - $4.852M
Packers tight end Jermichael Finley bounced back from a season-ending knee injury in 2010 to catch 55 passes for 767 yards and eight touchdowns. Finley is an exceptional athlete, has already produced two 50-catch seasons, and won't turn 25 until late March.
Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez would have been a candidate for the franchise tag, but Jay Glazer of FOXSports.com reported on Sunday that Gonzalez signed a one-year, $6.9 million extension. Gonzalez earned $5.75 million in base salary in 2011. Had the Falcons been forced to franchise Gonzalez, it would have cost 120 percent of his 2011 cap number ($7.75 million), or $9.3 million in guaranteed base salary. It will be interesting to see if Gonzalez's one-year extension contains any bonuses or incentives to bring his available compensation up to the $9.3 million figure.
Other notable FA tight ends: Visanthe Shiancoe, Jeremy Shockey, John Carlson, Scott Chandler, Joel Dreessen, Martellus Bennett, Fred Davis, Craig Stevens, Jacob Tamme
Offensive Linemen
Projected Franchise Tender: $9.447M - $9.81M
Projected Transition Tender: $8.437M - $8.762M
Another player who could be impacted by the Drew Brees contract situation is Saints Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks. The 6-foot-5, 343-pound former fifth-rounder out of Nebraska has started 64 of 67 regular and post-season games over the last four seasons. He could easily command a contract similar to the seven-year, $56.7 million deal that teammate and fellow Pro Bowler Jahri Evans signed on May 11, 2010.
Packers center Scott Wells turns 31 in January, but has started 97 of the team's last 105 regular season games and was selected to the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career. Wells is the only Packers offensive lineman without a contract for the 2012 season.
Other notable FA offensive linemen: Ben Grubbs, Mike Brisiel, Dan Connolly, Jeff Saturday, Matt Birk, Nick Hardwick, Dan Koppen, Chris Myers, Jeremy Zuttah, Jeff Backus, Max Starks, Vernon Carey, Jake Scott, Sean Locklear, Stephon Heyer, Demetrius Bell, Jared Gaither
Punters/Kickers
Projected Franchise Tender: $2.665M - $2.768M
Projected Transition Tender: $2.452M - $2.546M
Jaguars kicker Josh Scobee earned $2 million in base salary in 2011, the final year of his contract. He was 23-of-25 on field goal attempts and had 39 touchbacks.
Matt Prater had seven field goals in either the fourth quarter or overtime in four of the Broncos' eight wins this season. The 27-year-old is 10-of-13 in his career on field goals of 50 yards or longer, including 3-of-4 in 2011.
Buccaneers kicker Connor Barth was 26-of-28 and carries a streak of 16 successful field goal attempts into the 2011 season. Over his last two seasons, Barth is 49-of-56 (87.5 percent) and the Buccaneers spent $19.5 million on punter/kickoff specialist Michael Koenen last July. Less than $3 million for a dependably accurate field goal kicker should be nothing for a Buccaneers team that could have around $50 million in cap space in 2012.
Other notable FA punters/kickers: Jay Feely, Neil Rackers, Mike Nugent, Mat McBriar
Comments
35 comments, Last at 18 Apr 2013, 3:17am
#1 by bigtencrazy (not verified) // Jan 03, 2012 - 3:20pm
Ted Thompson prefers to let a player leave a year early versus a year late so Wells may be gone even though the loss of Cullen Jenkins is a sore spot with many Packer fans.
#3 by Flounder // Jan 03, 2012 - 3:46pm
If Wells isn't too out there with his demands, I think he'll be kept. He's the leader of the entire unit, and I think he probably has two to four effective years left in him. Due to his age and lack of size, I don't really see a huge bidding war for his services anyways.
#5 by Turin // Jan 03, 2012 - 3:50pm
Keeping Rodgers healthy/happy is likely to be the Packers top priority again this offseason; Thompson would be insane to let a Pro-Bowler walk given their lack of depth/stability at O-line.
(And yes, I'm one of the aforementioned fans still bitter that he paid the 4th-string WR instead of Jenkins)
#6 by bigtencrazy (not verified) // Jan 03, 2012 - 3:55pm
I wonder. He has had several years to get Wells signed and never really committed to the guy. Sometimes a GM isn't a believer in a player no matter the performance. I want to think Ted is different but who knows.
Ron Wolf admitted after the fact that he blew it on Bryce Paup because he thought Paup was a guy who just cleaned up after Reggie. Will Ted be put in the same position about Wells? Wouldn't surprise me if he lets him walk.
#8 by Flounder // Jan 03, 2012 - 4:10pm
Didn't Ted already sign him to one contract extension? Or was that Sherman? It's certainly true they tried to replace him with Spitz, but I the guy has proven his value and garners huge respect in the lockeroom. More of a Driver type (who Ted has held on to) than a Jenkins type.
#14 by KB (not verified) // Jan 03, 2012 - 11:46pm
The problem with letting Wells go is there is no replacement on the roster. They thought they had a replacement for him but released him in training camp. I see a 3 year deal being done if he isn't asking too much. I wonder if they consider Dietrich-Smith as his replacement now because he did fill in fairly well. I would still sign him and Franchise Finley. I also am curious if Ted Thompson will go with the bold move of the off season and franchise Flynn. That would be a lot of cash but if they see a war start over Flynn it might work out. I wouldn't argue with the decision even if it didn't work out as planned as long as they were somehow under the cap while keeping the mentioned players(which I don't know if is possible).
#34 by LionInAZ (not verified) // Jan 04, 2012 - 4:50pm
I would be very surprised if the Packers let Wells go.
I would not be surprised if they let Ryan Grant walk, though.
#2 by IanWhetstone // Jan 03, 2012 - 3:38pm
Nice work. Projecting the tag amounts under the new CBA is a real pain in the behind. Even with all of the official numbers in front of you from past years, it's a lot of math.
#4 by Podge (not verified) // Jan 03, 2012 - 3:47pm
Would guys like Finley be able to put together an argument that although they are listed as a TE, he's really a WR, because he plays more snaps there than TE (assuming he actually does)? Obviously its in his interests to try to get the highest franchise tag applied. I know the Ravens did it with Suggs, where they agreed he was between a DE and an LB and paid him whatever the midpoint was.
I think this could apply to Haloti Ngata who arguably could say he plays DE (in the 3-4), rather than NT, or irrelevantly to Mario Williams (who was a DE for the majority of his contract, and only an LB this season, although it wouldn't make a difference to his franchise number this year).
#7 by MJK // Jan 03, 2012 - 4:06pm
So, under the new CBA, are the franchise/transition numbers always going to be based on the numbers from previous years? This could mean that a given position gets out of whack with what salaries are actually doing. For example, if 2TE offenses suddenly come back into vogue and TE salaries go up across the board, using a franchise tag on a TE suddenly becomes a lot more beneficial than using on on a WR.
Or is there some mechanic that will reset the numbers to reflect the position-wise salary landscape of the NFL if it evolves?
#9 by Dean // Jan 03, 2012 - 4:20pm
I actually think your scenario is very plausible. NE had great success this year with 2 TEs. The Rams and McDaniels planned to use a 2TE offense, only to have the starter go down in camp. Given the Pats success, I could see a run there.
But as the price to franchise TEs goes up, the value to be had by franchising a player will go down. So it will all even out in the long run. If TEs actually become more valuable than WRs, it will reflect in their salaries, and if they don't, that will also reflect.
#32 by JonFrum // Jan 04, 2012 - 3:44pm
It's hard enough for most teams to find one good TE. In NE, Hernandez is more a hybrid H-back/receiver than true TE.
#10 by Drunkmonkey // Jan 03, 2012 - 4:37pm
"...the Buccaneers spent $19.5 million on punter/kickoff specialist Michael Koenen last July."
They spent how much on him? Seriously? And people wonder why the team lost so many games.
#16 by MilkmanDanimal // Jan 04, 2012 - 12:23am
It was a six-year contract, and turned out to be a good one. He's a very good punter who keeps the ball in play, has a good net average, and gets loads of touchbacks. Tampa sucked for all sorts of reasons, but giving Koenen a big contract was not one of them. He should be one of the team MVPs this year.
Yes, I realize how utterly depressing that sentence is.
#11 by James-London // Jan 03, 2012 - 5:35pm
Wow. Given that list of "notable" QBs, it's unsurprising that Matt Flynn is going to be a rich man come spring. The cupboard's pretty bare-unless Manning senior is both a: healthy and b: cut
Phil Simms is a Cretin.
#17 by BJR // Jan 04, 2012 - 4:52am
I agree it is not a particularly inspiring list, but is it an especially weak QB free agent class? What do the recent classes look like in comparison?
Given that top tier QBs never hit the market, I wouldn't have thought this is an abject list. Orton, Campbell and probably Henne and Flynn are starter quality and would be an upgrade for several teams. So no superstars, 3 proven starters (possibly 4 if include Young), 1 high upside wildcard (Flynn) and a few more replacement level players who will inevitably find a home.
#30 by wr (not verified) // Jan 04, 2012 - 2:02pm
Except that (we're talking by March 1 now) A and B are IMO mutually exclusive.
#12 by Harris // Jan 03, 2012 - 6:51pm
stev smit is in no way notable.
#13 by lester bangs (not verified) // Jan 03, 2012 - 10:09pm
Colston led all qualifying wideouts in catch rate this year. Obviously some of that is the system and QB he's tied to, but still, nice player.
#18 by dryheat // Jan 04, 2012 - 9:23am
Yeah, there seems to be potentially a number of #1/1A receivers available. Colston, Wayne, V Jax, S Johnson, and D Jackson will probably all get to free agency.
Are you listening, Belichick? The first three would look really good in Foxboro...although Wayne would probably be the most likely.
#19 by justanothersteve // Jan 04, 2012 - 9:49am
Why? Brady does quite well with his group of WRs. The Pats need defense, especially a pass rusher.
#27 by dryheat // Jan 04, 2012 - 12:57pm
The Patriots, like most teams, could use lots of things. But upgrading on the non-TE, non-Welker part of the passing game should get some attention. It seems one part of fixing the defense is giving Brady another reliable target in the passing game to keep them off the field.
#20 by Dean // Jan 04, 2012 - 9:57am
Do you really think many of these guys will actually reach the market? Wayne and D-Jax, but that's about it.
#22 by dryheat // Jan 04, 2012 - 11:00am
I don't think San Diego is going to tag Jackson again and pay him 14 million, neither do I think that AJ Smith is going to reverse field and now offer him the long-term deal he wants.
I don't think Buffalo wants Stevie Johnson back at #1 WR salary. I think he's been found to be unreliable and doesn't mesh well with Gailey.
Colston could come back if he's interested in a hometown discount, but he came into the league as a 7th rounder and might want a big payday. The Saints figure to have other things to address, such as their quarterback and offensive line, and may decide to use the money elsewhere given their WR depth and sign a lower-tier free agent WR.
I think Wayne and DeSean are as good as gone, and Belichick really seems to admire Wayne.
#23 by Dean // Jan 04, 2012 - 11:14am
I'll believe it when I see it. Living in St. Louis, I hope there's a glut of #1 WRs on the market. I'd love to see a half dozen guys with Ted Ginn's speed and Larry Fitz's hands magically appear on the market, each one driving the price down for everyone else due to the oversupply. But history shows us that rarely are these guys simply available for the asking.
#25 by BJR // Jan 04, 2012 - 11:55am
Colston is an interesting one because, whilst it is tempting to believe that you might be able to plug anybody into that system and get good production, he has been there for the entirity of the Brees/Payton era and has been their leading receiver every year, save for 2008 when he missed significant time. So whilst they do seem to have good depth at WR, Colston is clearly more important than any other guy in that unit. He is highly respected player in the locker room, and they might be more willing to keep him around than people think.
#26 by resident jenius // Jan 04, 2012 - 12:48pm
I'd like to see D-Jax in Carolina. Even if he only runs the deep routes it would force the safties back, allowing Smith and Olson to work the short and intermediate routes. And lets not forget about what keeping the safties out of the box would do for Williams and Stewart. Finally, picking up D-Jax would allow us to concentrate on defense in the draft.
#33 by chemical burn // Jan 04, 2012 - 4:09pm
Man, that would be a great fit. Also, his sloppy route running won't matter with a QB who excels so much at the deep ball. He apparently wants huge money, though - I thought the Eagles would franchise him but I think they're betting on him finding a cold market for his services and picking him up late...
#15 by Phil O'sopher (not verified) // Jan 03, 2012 - 11:49pm
Phil Dawson, K for Cleveland Browns will be a free agent and they used the franschise tag on him his last year. He is a notable kicker available as I doubt he wants to play for a loser for the last few years of his career and the Browns certainly won't franchise him again. He is also a really good crap weather kicker and true professional.
Wish him the best wherever he lands.
#21 by RichC (not verified) // Jan 04, 2012 - 10:43am
"Brees is coming off one of the best quarterback seasons in NFL history,"
So are about 10 other QBs.
#24 by Joseph // Jan 04, 2012 - 11:52am
Really--list them.
I'll give you Rodgers--and maybe Cam Newton if you're including rushing stats--but this wasn't even Brady's best season ever.
If you don't like Brees, so be it. But the guy just set the record for completion percentage--beating HIS OWN record--and the yardage record--BY 300+ yds (which he nearly broke a few years ago)!! Not to mention, he broke several other season records for 300+ yd games, 350+ yd games, etc. So--find me another season--BY ANY OTHER QB--where he broke so many records. Even Brady in his 50 TD yr and Manning in his 49 TD yr didn't break those kind of records.
An aside--I'd have to check to be sure--but the reason Brees had "only" 46 passing TD's this year is because the run game steals some too. Another fan listed the offensive records set by this Saints team--and they are numerous. They went 13-3, so it's not like they were just getting lots of yards that didn't mean anything. In fact, in thinking through the season, I think that the only TD's that "didn't mean anything" (meaning were so late in the game as to be irrelevent to the outcome, and should be construed as "padding numbers") were the last ones against the Rams, and the one at the end of the Falcons game. I don't know how many Brady/Manning had in their record-setting TD years, but I distinctly remember a lot of "running up the stats" talk about the Pats in their 18-1 year.
#28 by justanothersteve // Jan 04, 2012 - 1:32pm
Before this year, only 2 players had passed for over 5000 yds in a season. Three did this season and another just missed. This is from the all-time single season passing stats.
Rk Player Team Yards Year
1 Drew Brees Saints 5,476 2011
2 Tom Brady Patriots 5,235 2011
3 Dan Marino Dolphins 5,084 1984
4 Drew Brees Saints 5,069 2008
5 Matthew Stafford Lions 5,038 2011
6 Eli Manning Giants 4,933 2011
Some others
19 Aaron Rodgers Packers 4,643 2011
20 Philip Rivers Chargers 4,624 2011
62 Tony Romo Cowboys 4,184 2011
63 Matt Ryan Falcons 4,177 2011
82 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers 4,077 2011
85 Cam Newton Panthers 4,051 2011
That's an awful lot to add to the 4,000+ club in one year. A dozen is hyperbole, but it's evidence that passing for huge numbers ain't what it used to be.
Sorry about the format. Tried to make it look pretty, but this site doesn't allow multiple spaces and I don't have the time to code it.
#29 by Eddo // Jan 04, 2012 - 1:58pm
Through 2010, the 100th-best QB year(*) in history by ANY/A(**) was 7.03 (Jeff George, 1999). Six QBs had a higher figure than that this season (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Schaub, Manning, Romo).
The 20th-best season was 7.93 (Peyton Manning, 7.93). Three QBs (Rodgers, Brady, Brees) had a higher ANY/A this season.
All tolled, Brees's season ranks 16th all-time by ANY/A (Rodgers, 2nd; Brady, 13th). Schaub's 2011 ranks 26th. Eli Manning's ranks 56th. I think it's safe to say that either three or four QBs (Schaub's kind of a wild card) had "one of the best seasons of all time", at least if you go by ANY/A.
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If you want to try to remove the effects this particular season has (given that passing statistics are pretty inflated), you can go by ANY/A+. Through 2010, the 100th-best season by ANY/A+ was 124 (John Elway, 1987). Four QBs passed that mark this year (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Schaub).
The 20th-best season was 136 (Dan Fouts, 1982). Only Rodgers passed that mark this year.
Including 2011, Rodgers put up the 3rd-best season by ANY/A+, Brady the 41st, Brees the 42nd, and Schaub the 99th.
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(*) Minimum 160 attempts (i.e. 10 per game), thoughout this post.
(**) ANY/A is my personal favorite way to judge QBs, provided they have enough attempts on the season.
#31 by Revenge of the NURBS (not verified) // Jan 04, 2012 - 2:09pm
Do I interpret correctly that this is saying all offensive linemen are treated as the same position for franchise tag purposes? Kind of interesting if that's the case. Doubly so, considering that the defensive article breaks out DT, DE, and LB as all being separate. The lines between DT/DE and LB/DE are every bit as blurry as the lines between T/G and G/C. I don't advocate lumping all front 7 players into one catagory, but it bears noting. And as others have mentioned, this distinction has the potential to cause problems.
Also interesting that kickers and punters are lumped together, considering that the line between them is usually pretty obvious.
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