Varsity Numbers: Final 2013 Projections

August 27, 2013, 1:33 pm ET

Photo: USA Today Sports Images

by Bill Connelly

The 2013 college football season begins in a little more than 48 hours. I think I've written as many words as I can about this at SB Nation this offseason, and I encourage you to check out the cool, enormous megapage the SBN tech staff created for housing my lengthy team previews. Over here at FO, before the season begins, I wanted to pass along some updated projections.

Both Brian Fremeau (with FEI) and I (with S&P+) tinkered with the formulas and the returnee figures used for our projections, and below are the final results. You'll find two tables, one for projected rankings (S&P+, FEI, and F/+ broken out by offense and defense), and one for updated projected records (Total Mean Wins, Conference Mean Wins, projected strength of schedule).

Final 2013 F/+ Projections
Rk	Team	2013 Proj. S&P+	Rk	2013 Proj. FEI	Rk	Dif	2013 Proj. F/+	Rk	Proj. Off. F/+	Rk	Proj. Def. F/+	Rk
1	Alabama	300.2	1	0.283	1	0	37.8%	1	16.1%	1	21.8%	1
2	Oregon	269.6	2	0.278	2	0	30.1%	2	12.6%	4	17.5%	3
3	Stanford	250.1	6	0.253	3	3	24.0%	3	5.8%	27	18.2%	2
4	LSU	253.3	4	0.216	4	0	22.9%	4	6.7%	19	16.3%	4
5	Florida	251.6	5	0.209	5	0	22.2%	5	6.9%	17	15.3%	5
6	Florida State	255.5	3	0.175	11	-8	21.5%	6	7.9%	13	13.6%	8
7	Notre Dame	248.6	9	0.182	10	-1	20.1%	7	9.6%	9	10.5%	13
8	Texas	242.9	14	0.208	6	8	20.0%	8	9.1%	11	10.9%	12
9	Georgia	249.0	8	0.172	13	-5	19.7%	9	14.6%	2	5.0%	30
10	Ohio State	245.9	12	0.182	9	3	19.5%	10	9.7%	8	9.8%	14
11	Texas A&M	244.7	13	0.188	7	6	19.4%	11	11.9%	6	7.6%	19
12	Oklahoma	250.0	7	0.162	15	-8	19.4%	12	13.4%	3	6.1%	28
13	Oklahoma State	246.9	11	0.173	12	-1	19.2%	13	12.0%	5	7.2%	22
14	TCU	239.1	19	0.185	8	11	17.9%	14	3.9%	36	14.0%	6
15	South Carolina	239.8	17	0.169	14	3	17.3%	15	5.7%	29	11.6%	10
16	Boise State	248.3	10	0.125	23	-13	17.2%	16	6.3%	21	10.9%	11
17	Wisconsin	239.8	16	0.152	18	-2	16.5%	17	4.1%	35	12.3%	9
18	Michigan State	239.8	15	0.147	20	-5	16.2%	18	2.2%	45	14.0%	7
19	USC	239.4	18	0.149	19	-1	16.2%	19	7.8%	14	8.4%	16
20	Oregon State	233.1	23	0.157	16	7	15.1%	20	7.3%	15	7.7%	18
21	Clemson	234.1	21	0.144	21	0	14.7%	21	10.3%	7	4.4%	33
22	Nebraska	234.7	20	0.123	24	-4	13.7%	22	7.0%	16	6.7%	24
23	Penn State	231.6	24	0.121	25	-1	12.9%	23	4.6%	32	8.3%	17
24	Michigan	233.8	22	0.104	27	-5	12.6%	24	6.0%	24	6.6%	25
25	Louisville	221.7	29	0.155	17	12	12.2%	25	8.0%	12	4.2%	34
Rk	Team	2013 Proj. S&P+	Rk	2013 Proj. FEI	Rk	Dif	2013 Proj. F/+	Rk	Proj. Off. F/+	Rk	Proj. Def. F/+	Rk
26	Virginia Tech	229.6	25	0.087	31	-6	10.7%	26	2.1%	49	8.6%	15
27	Cincinnati	215.9	37	0.136	22	15	9.8%	27	5.2%	30	4.6%	32
28	Ole Miss	225.9	27	0.087	32	-5	9.8%	28	4.3%	34	5.5%	29
29	BYU	228.5	26	0.064	39	-13	9.3%	29	2.1%	48	7.2%	21
30	Missouri	220.4	31	0.098	29	2	9.0%	30	2.1%	47	6.9%	23
31	Arizona State	219.3	32	0.096	30	2	8.6%	31	2.2%	46	6.4%	26
32	Baylor	220.5	30	0.077	34	-4	8.0%	32	9.5%	10	-1.5%	75
33	Arizona	223.9	28	0.060	41	-13	7.9%	33	6.0%	23	1.9%	45
34	Miami	218.8	33	0.072	36	-3	7.3%	34	6.1%	22	1.2%	48
35	Northwestern	209.0	49	0.115	26	23	7.0%	35	6.4%	20	0.6%	53
36	Georgia Tech	215.6	38	0.067	38	0	6.2%	36	5.7%	28	0.5%	57
37	Kansas State	207.8	51	0.101	28	23	6.0%	37	2.8%	39	3.3%	40
38	Pittsburgh	212.0	46	0.078	33	13	5.9%	38	2.7%	40	3.2%	41
39	North Carolina	213.8	43	0.063	40	3	5.6%	39	6.7%	18	-1.1%	72
40	Northern Illinois	212.1	45	0.068	37	8	5.5%	40	2.3%	44	3.2%	42
41	Washington	214.8	39	0.052	43	-4	5.3%	41	1.2%	52	4.1%	35
42	Utah State	214.6	41	0.050	44	-3	5.2%	42	-1.0%	65	6.2%	27
43	West Virginia	216.2	36	0.039	50	-14	5.0%	43	4.5%	33	0.5%	56
44	UCLA	213.6	44	0.044	48	-4	4.6%	44	1.8%	50	2.9%	43
45	Texas Tech	214.6	40	0.038	51	-11	4.6%	45	3.5%	38	1.1%	50
46	Iowa	206.2	54	0.074	35	19	4.3%	46	0.6%	55	3.7%	37
47	Tennessee	216.4	35	0.015	55	-20	3.9%	47	4.9%	31	-1.0%	71
48	Vanderbilt	209.3	48	0.048	45	3	3.8%	48	0.2%	59	3.5%	38
49	Rutgers	207.6	52	0.057	42	10	3.8%	49	-3.5%	87	7.2%	20
50	Utah	209.7	47	0.045	47	0	3.7%	50	0.2%	60	3.5%	39
Rk	Team	2013 Proj. S&P+	Rk	2013 Proj. FEI	Rk	Dif	2013 Proj. F/+	Rk	Proj. Off. F/+	Rk	Proj. Def. F/+	Rk
51	Fresno State	213.9	42	0.023	53	-11	3.6%	51	-1.4%	66	5.0%	31
52	Central Florida	208.8	50	0.046	46	4	3.5%	52	3.6%	37	-0.1%	66
53	Arkansas	217.1	34	-0.027	68	-34	2.0%	53	1.1%	53	0.8%	52
54	Mississippi State	206.2	55	0.026	52	3	1.9%	54	1.1%	54	0.9%	51
55	Syracuse	201.6	62	0.043	49	13	1.6%	55	1.5%	51	0.1%	62
56	Connecticut	202.1	61	0.020	54	7	0.6%	56	-3.1%	80	3.7%	36
57	Tulsa	206.3	53	-0.001	58	-5	0.6%	57	-1.4%	67	2.0%	44
58	Auburn	205.4	56	-0.006	59	-3	0.1%	58	-1.6%	71	1.7%	47
59	San Diego State	205.3	57	-0.009	61	-4	-0.1%	59	0.5%	57	-0.6%	67
60	Arkansas State	204.1	58	-0.015	64	-6	-0.7%	60	2.6%	41	-3.3%	79
61	San Jose State	199.6	65	0.002	57	8	-1.0%	61	-1.5%	69	0.5%	55
62	Toledo	202.5	60	-0.020	65	-5	-1.3%	62	-1.6%	72	0.3%	60
63	Houston	203.1	59	-0.038	73	-14	-2.0%	63	-2.5%	77	0.5%	58
64	Indiana	194.4	73	0.003	56	17	-2.2%	64	5.9%	25	-8.1%	106
65	Bowling Green	197.0	67	-0.021	66	1	-2.7%	65	-4.5%	96	1.8%	46
66	California	200.4	63	-0.040	75	-12	-2.8%	66	-3.4%	86	0.6%	54
67	Boston College	194.6	72	-0.013	63	9	-2.9%	67	-2.3%	76	-0.6%	68
68	Virginia	200.1	64	-0.040	76	-12	-2.9%	68	-3.2%	82	0.3%	59
69	South Florida	198.9	66	-0.040	77	-11	-3.2%	69	-0.4%	64	-2.8%	77
70	Nevada	195.8	71	-0.027	69	2	-3.3%	70	5.8%	26	-9.1%	112
71	SMU	196.6	69	-0.032	70	-1	-3.4%	71	-3.4%	85	0.1%	63
72	Iowa State	191.3	79	-0.011	62	17	-3.6%	72	-3.6%	89	0.0%	64
73	N.C. State	196.7	68	-0.041	78	-10	-3.8%	73	-3.1%	78	-0.7%	70
74	Purdue	196.1	70	-0.046	80	-10	-4.2%	74	-5.3%	98	1.1%	49
75	Minnesota	193.0	77	-0.032	71	6	-4.3%	75	-4.2%	93	0.0%	65
Rk	Team	2013 Proj. S&P+	Rk	2013 Proj. FEI	Rk	Dif	2013 Proj. F/+	Rk	Proj. Off. F/+	Rk	Proj. Def. F/+	Rk
76	UL-Monroe	186.7	85	-0.008	60	25	-4.6%	76	0.6%	56	-5.1%	87
77	Louisiana Tech	193.2	76	-0.043	79	-3	-4.7%	77	2.5%	43	-7.3%	104
78	Ohio	190.4	82	-0.034	72	10	-5.0%	78	-3.6%	88	-1.4%	73
79	Temple	192.4	78	-0.047	81	-3	-5.1%	79	-2.1%	75	-3.1%	78
80	East Carolina	194.2	74	-0.059	85	-11	-5.3%	80	-1.9%	74	-3.4%	80
81	Rice	185.8	88	-0.025	67	21	-5.7%	81	-3.7%	90	-1.9%	76
82	UL-Lafayette	191.2	80	-0.054	83	-3	-5.8%	82	0.1%	61	-5.9%	91
83	Ball State	186.2	87	-0.039	74	13	-6.3%	83	-0.3%	63	-5.9%	92
84	Marshall	193.3	75	-0.084	93	-18	-6.7%	84	2.6%	42	-9.3%	113
85	Duke	190.5	81	-0.073	92	-11	-6.9%	85	0.0%	62	-6.9%	103
86	Kent State	187.5	84	-0.059	86	-2	-6.9%	86	-1.9%	73	-5.1%	86
87	Maryland	188.6	83	-0.067	88	-5	-7.1%	87	-7.2%	105	0.1%	61
88	Kentucky	186.2	86	-0.060	87	-1	-7.3%	88	-1.4%	68	-5.9%	90
89	Navy	183.0	96	-0.053	82	14	-7.8%	89	-1.6%	70	-6.2%	96
90	Western Kentucky	183.3	95	-0.057	84	11	-7.9%	90	-6.4%	103	-1.5%	74
91	Wake Forest	184.1	93	-0.067	89	4	-8.2%	91	-7.6%	107	-0.6%	69
92	Troy	184.3	92	-0.071	90	2	-8.3%	92	0.3%	58	-8.6%	109
93	Southern Miss	184.4	91	-0.103	97	-6	-9.9%	93	-6.3%	101	-3.6%	82
94	Western Michigan	184.7	89	-0.106	99	-10	-10.0%	94	-4.0%	92	-6.0%	93
95	Middle Tennessee	177.3	101	-0.071	91	10	-10.1%	95	-3.3%	83	-6.8%	102
96	Central Michigan	179.1	98	-0.087	94	4	-10.4%	96	-3.9%	91	-6.6%	99
97	Buffalo	177.4	99	-0.088	95	4	-10.9%	97	-7.5%	106	-3.4%	81
98	Air Force	183.9	94	-0.123	104	-10	-11.0%	98	-4.5%	97	-6.5%	98
99	Illinois	184.7	90	-0.128	105	-15	-11.1%	99	-6.2%	100	-4.9%	85
100	UAB	179.5	97	-0.123	103	-6	-12.1%	100	-3.2%	81	-8.9%	110
Rk	Team	2013 Proj. S&P+	Rk	2013 Proj. FEI	Rk	Dif	2013 Proj. F/+	Rk	Proj. Off. F/+	Rk	Proj. Def. F/+	Rk
101	Florida International	176.0	102	-0.116	101	1	-12.6%	101	-8.0%	109	-4.6%	84
102	Wyoming	173.6	106	-0.105	98	8	-12.7%	102	-3.1%	79	-9.6%	114
103	North Texas	171.0	109	-0.097	96	13	-12.9%	103	-6.7%	104	-6.2%	97
104	Texas State	175.6	104	-0.132	106	-2	-13.5%	104	-3.4%	84	-10.2%	116
105	UNLV	172.2	107	-0.121	102	5	-13.8%	105	-6.4%	102	-7.4%	105
106	Hawaii	175.6	103	-0.145	111	-8	-14.1%	106	-10.3%	119	-3.8%	83
107	Washington State	177.4	100	-0.161	115	-15	-14.5%	107	-8.4%	111	-6.1%	94
108	Colorado State	171.7	108	-0.135	108	0	-14.6%	108	-8.5%	112	-6.1%	95
109	UTEP	170.8	110	-0.138	109	1	-15.0%	109	-8.3%	110	-6.7%	100
110	Army	169.6	113	-0.143	110	3	-15.6%	110	-4.3%	94	-11.3%	119
111	UTSA	167.2	117	-0.132	107	10	-15.6%	111	-4.4%	95	-11.2%	118
112	Memphis	170.0	112	-0.150	113	-1	-15.8%	112	-10.4%	120	-5.3%	88
113	Florida Atlantic	167.7	116	-0.146	112	4	-16.2%	113	-9.4%	116	-6.8%	101
114	Colorado	168.1	115	-0.159	114	1	-16.7%	114	-8.5%	113	-8.2%	107
115	South Alabama	157.7	119	-0.108	100	19	-16.7%	115	-11.0%	122	-5.7%	89
116	Kansas	170.4	111	-0.173	116	-5	-16.8%	116	-7.9%	108	-9.0%	111
117	Miami (Ohio)	174.6	105	-0.202	120	-15	-17.3%	117	-5.8%	99	-11.5%	120
118	Tulane	169.4	114	-0.195	118	-4	-18.2%	118	-10.0%	117	-8.2%	108
119	Eastern Michigan	163.3	118	-0.178	117	1	-18.8%	119	-8.7%	115	-10.1%	115
120	Akron	157.4	120	-0.199	119	1	-21.4%	120	-10.1%	118	-11.2%	117
121	New Mexico	155.2	122	-0.223	122	0	-23.0%	121	-8.6%	114	-14.4%	125
122	New Mexico State	149.2	123	-0.219	121	2	-24.4%	122	-10.9%	121	-13.5%	123
123	Idaho	155.5	121	-0.265	125	-4	-25.1%	123	-13.5%	123	-11.6%	121
124	Georgia State	135.0	125	-0.223	123	2	-28.0%	124	-14.4%	124	-13.6%	124
125	Massachusetts	138.4	124	-0.252	124	0	-28.7%	125	-15.9%	125	-12.7%	122

You won't find too many serious shifts between the projections in the Football Outsiders Almanac 2013 and the ones below, but here are some of the teams that moved quite a bit.

Moving Up

SMU (20 spots, from 91st to 71st)
Florida State (13 spots, from 19th to sixth)
Utah State (10 spots, from 52nd to 42nd)
Washington (eight spots, from 49th to 41st)
Iowa State (seven spots, from 79th to 72nd)
San Jose State (seven spots, from 68th to 61st)
California (seven spots, from 73rd to 66th)

Moving Down

Air Force (23 spots, from 75th to 98th)
Temple (15 spots, from 64th to 79th)
N.C. State (12 spots, from 61st to 73rd)
Arkansas (10 spots, from 43rd to 53rd)
Wake Forest (10 spots, from 81st to 91st)
North Carolina (10 spots, from 29th to 39th)
Miami (nine spots, from 25th to 34th)
Oklahoma State (seven spots, from sixth to 13th)

Most of these shifts came simply from replacing the original returnee numbers with updated, more accurate figures. There are some further changes based on what Brian wrote about last week in his awesome preseason primer. (I also recommend checking out his updated Field Position Advantage tables.)

The most noteworthy changes, when it comes to the top teams, are Florida State and Oklahoma State. FSU moves from basically a tie with Clemson atop the ACC to a step or two ahead. OSU's projection is tempered a bit, though the Cowboys are still in a virtual tie with Texas and Oklahoma in the Big 12 projections. (TCU is also involved, though the Horned Frogs also got bumped down a hair.)

Meanwhile, FEI and S&P+ disagree rather heavily on some teams, but that's par for the course. Arkansas and Tennessee look a lot better through S&P+'s eyes, in part because of the two-year recruiting rankings I use in my projections, and in part because Brian's recent tweaks were tough on both the Hogs and Vols. (Other teams S&P+ likes quite a bit more than FEI: Marshall, Washington State, Miami of Ohio, Illinois, Houston, West Virginia, Arizona, Boise State, and, as always, BYU.)

On the flipside, efficiency teams like Kansas State, Northwestern, and UL-Monroe are looked upon far more favorably by FEI. This makes me happy, as I really enjoy watching ULM and want FEI to be right. (Other teams favored by FEI: Rice, Iowa, South Alabama, Indiana, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Navy, Syracuse, and Pittsburgh.)

Final 2013 F/+ Win Projections and SOS
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
25	Louisville	AAC		10.3	6.5	0.752	106
27	Cincinnati	AAC		10.1	6.3	0.797	112
52	Central Florida	AAC		7.5	5.3	0.485	77
49	Rutgers	AAC		7.5	4.5	0.617	95
56	Connecticut	AAC		6.7	4.0	0.601	94
63	Houston	AAC		6.1	3.5	0.593	93
79	Temple	AAC		5.4	2.7	0.393	65
69	South Florida	AAC		5.1	2.9	0.465	75
71	SMU	AAC		4.9	3.5	0.298	51
112	Memphis	AAC		2.6	0.9	0.673	101
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
6	Florida State	ACC	Atlantic	10.6	7.2	0.314	55
21	Clemson	ACC	Atlantic	9.3	6.6	0.354	60
26	Virginia Tech	ACC	Coastal	8.8	6.0	0.134	20
39	North Carolina	ACC	Coastal	7.6	4.7	0.435	70
34	Miami	ACC	Coastal	7.5	4.7	0.281	47
38	Pittsburgh	ACC	Coastal	7.1	4.1	0.376	63
36	Georgia Tech	ACC	Coastal	7.0	4.5	0.363	61
55	Syracuse	ACC	Atlantic	6.2	3.8	0.297	50
73	N.C. State	ACC	Atlantic	6.0	2.9	0.417	69
67	Boston College	ACC	Atlantic	5.5	2.7	0.314	56
85	Duke	ACC	Coastal	5.0	2.0	0.634	96
91	Wake Forest	ACC	Atlantic	4.4	2.2	0.447	72
68	Virginia	ACC	Coastal	4.3	2.4	0.245	40
87	Maryland	ACC	Atlantic	4.2	2.1	0.342	58
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
13	Oklahoma State	Big 12		9.9	7.0	0.278	46
8	Texas	Big 12		9.5	7.0	0.213	35
12	Oklahoma	Big 12		9.1	6.8	0.146	23
14	TCU	Big 12		8.7	6.4	0.132	19
32	Baylor	Big 12		7.2	4.4	0.202	34
37	Kansas State	Big 12		7.0	4.1	0.191	29
43	West Virginia	Big 12		6.4	3.6	0.189	28
45	Texas Tech	Big 12		6.2	3.6	0.183	27
72	Iowa State	Big 12		3.3	1.7	0.201	32
116	Kansas	Big 12		1.6	0.3	0.151	24
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
10	Ohio State	Big Ten	Leaders	10.6	6.7	0.494	80
17	Wisconsin	Big Ten	Leaders	9.9	6.4	0.375	62
18	Michigan State	Big Ten	Legends	9.7	6.5	0.331	57
22	Nebraska	Big Ten	Legends	9.5	5.7	0.450	73
23	Penn State	Big Ten	Leaders	8.9	5.4	0.302	52
24	Michigan	Big Ten	Legends	7.7	4.7	0.242	39
35	Northwestern	Big Ten	Legends	6.9	3.6	0.286	48
46	Iowa	Big Ten	Legends	6.1	2.9	0.257	43
64	Indiana	Big Ten	Leaders	5.3	2.7	0.193	31
75	Minnesota	Big Ten	Legends	4.4	1.2	0.310	54
74	Purdue	Big Ten	Leaders	3.2	1.8	0.163	26
99	Illinois	Big Ten	Leaders	2.5	0.5	0.273	45
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
57	Tulsa	Conf USA	West	8.5	6.3	0.578	92
77	Louisiana Tech	Conf USA	West	8.2	5.4	0.937	125
81	Rice	Conf USA	West	7.6	5.3	0.566	89
84	Marshall	Conf USA	East	7.0	4.9	0.783	110
80	East Carolina	Conf USA	East	6.8	5.2	0.792	111
95	Middle Tennessee	Conf USA	East	6.1	4.3	0.763	107
93	Southern Miss	Conf USA	East	5.0	4.1	0.486	78
103	North Texas	Conf USA	West	4.9	3.5	0.559	88
100	UAB	Conf USA	East	4.9	3.6	0.435	71
109	UTEP	Conf USA	West	4.7	2.9	0.572	91
101	Florida International	Conf USA	East	4.6	3.3	0.748	105
118	Tulane	Conf USA	West	3.7	2.1	0.910	124
113	Florida Atlantic	Conf USA	East	3.7	2.7	0.837	116
111	UTSA	Conf USA	West	3.5	2.6	0.654	97
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
7	Notre Dame	Independent		9.5		0.146	22
29	BYU	Independent		7.2		0.219	38
89	Navy	Independent		5.5		0.528	84
110	Army	Independent		3.8		0.662	98
122	New Mexico State	Independent		2.7		0.526	83
123	Idaho	Independent		2.0		0.406	67
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
40	Northern Illinois	MAC	West	10.1	7.0	0.893	120
78	Ohio	MAC	East	8.4	5.9	0.770	108
65	Bowling Green	MAC	East	8.2	6.1	0.908	123
83	Ball State	MAC	West	7.6	5.0	0.879	118
62	Toledo	MAC	West	7.5	5.5	0.407	68
86	Kent State	MAC	East	5.9	4.2	0.350	59
96	Central Michigan	MAC	West	5.3	3.7	0.729	103
94	Western Michigan	MAC	West	5.3	4.2	0.536	87
97	Buffalo	MAC	East	5.1	3.9	0.512	81
117	Miami (Ohio)	MAC	East	3.4	2.9	0.867	117
120	Akron	MAC	East	2.6	1.5	0.674	102
119	Eastern Michigan	MAC	West	2.5	1.3	0.666	99
125	Massachusetts	MAC	East	1.7	0.9	0.571	90
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
16	Boise State	MWC	Mountain	10.8	7.4	0.670	100
51	Fresno State	MWC	West	9.2	5.7	0.743	104
42	Utah State	MWC	Mountain	8.4	6.4	0.488	79
61	San Jose State	MWC	West	7.5	5.2	0.387	64
59	San Diego State	MWC	West	7.2	5.1	0.397	66
70	Nevada	MWC	West	5.7	4.3	0.286	49
98	Air Force	MWC	Mountain	5.2	3.3	0.482	76
102	Wyoming	MWC	Mountain	5.1	2.9	0.453	74
108	Colorado State	MWC	Mountain	4.6	2.3	0.096	13
105	UNLV	MWC	West	4.0	2.4	0.805	113
106	Hawaii	MWC	West	2.9	2.0	0.531	85
121	New Mexico	MWC	Mountain	2.3	1.1	0.536	86
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
2	Oregon	Pac-12	North	11.4	8.4	0.270	44
3	Stanford	Pac-12	North	10.2	7.4	0.153	25
19	USC	Pac-12	South	9.9	6.8	0.213	36
20	Oregon State	Pac-12	North	8.9	6.1	0.116	15
33	Arizona	Pac-12	South	8.1	5.2	0.250	41
31	Arizona State	Pac-12	South	6.8	5.2	0.139	21
41	Washington	Pac-12	North	6.3	4.2	0.097	14
44	UCLA	Pac-12	South	5.7	3.7	0.046	7
50	Utah	Pac-12	South	5.4	3.6	0.072	10
66	California	Pac-12	North	3.9	2.6	0.049	8
107	Washington State	Pac-12	North	2.3	0.4	0.079	12
114	Colorado	Pac-12	South	1.8	0.4	0.191	30
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
1	Alabama	SEC	West	11.7	7.8	0.307	53
5	Florida	SEC	East	9.6	6.1	0.119	17
9	Georgia	SEC	East	9.4	6.1	0.201	33
11	Texas A&M	SEC	West	9.4	5.5	0.076	11
4	LSU	SEC	West	9.3	5.6	0.027	3
15	South Carolina	SEC	East	9.2	5.8	0.255	42
28	Ole Miss	SEC	West	7.0	3.9	0.036	4
30	Missouri	SEC	East	6.9	3.5	0.218	37
48	Vanderbilt	SEC	East	6.2	2.5	0.129	18
47	Tennessee	SEC	East	5.6	2.8	0.009	1
58	Auburn	SEC	West	5.1	1.6	0.044	6
53	Arkansas	SEC	West	4.9	1.9	0.016	2
54	Mississippi State	SEC	West	4.9	2.2	0.043	5
88	Kentucky	SEC	East	3.1	0.7	0.051	9
Rk	Team	Conf	Div	TMW	CMW	SOS	SOS Rk
60	Arkansas State	Sun Belt		8.7	5.4	0.815	114
82	UL-Lafayette	Sun Belt		7.5	4.5	0.835	115
76	UL-Monroe	Sun Belt		7.0	4.5	0.517	82
90	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt		6.9	4.0	0.896	122
92	Troy	Sun Belt		6.0	3.8	0.781	109
104	Texas State	Sun Belt		5.5	2.9	0.880	119
115	South Alabama	Sun Belt		4.0	2.2	0.896	121
124	Georgia State	Sun Belt		3.1	0.6	0.119	16

Projected AAC champion: Louisville by a nose over Cincinnati. The season-ending Louisville at Cincinnati game could be a lot of fun and carry a lot of national heft.

Projected ACC champion: Florida State over Virginia Tech in the title game, though FSU and Clemson are both projected at seven conference wins when rounded, and the FSU-Clemson game is in Clemson. I'm pretty bearish on Virginia Tech; I think the offense needs another year before it comes around, and I think the Hokies are going to struggle to hold off North Carolina, Miami, and Georgia Tech in this race. But the projections love a steady winner, and despite last year's tumble, Virginia Tech is as steady as they come in the ACC.
Projected Big 12 champion: Texas, I guess? The Longhorns and Oklahoma State are both projected at 7.0 wins (with Oklahoma on their heels at 6.8), but with the UT-OSU game in Austin, we'll say Texas is more likely to win the tie-breaker.
Projected Big Ten champion: Ohio State over Michigan State. We're obviously not as high on the Buckeyes as many, but they still hold a slight edge over both Wisconsin and whoever wins the Legends Division.
Projected Conference USA champion: Tulsa over East Carolina. The three best teams in this conference are all potentially in the West Division, which is unfortunate for both Louisiana Tech and Rice, who are projected to fall a game short of Tulsa.
Projected MAC champion: Northern Illinois over Bowling Green. These teams enjoy two of the nation's weakest schedules, but this game could be outstanding, with NIU's outstanding offense pitted against BGSU's defense, which could be one of the nation's better mid-major Ds.
Projected Mountain West champion: Boise State over Fresno State. As is customary, the top half of this conference is far ahead of the bottom half, and while that means a lot of teams finishing with 2-4 wins overall, that also means a pair of fun division battles. Boise State should manage to hold off Utah State in the Mountain, but Fresno State has its hands full against SJSU, SDSU and Nevada in the West.
Projected Pac-12 champion: Oregon over USC. The Oregon-Stanford game will almost certainly decide the North, while USC seems to have a pretty solid advantage over Arizona, Arizona State, and projected underachievers UCLA. Of course, they did last year, too.
Projected SEC champion: Alabama over ... Florida, maybe? Florida and Georgia are projected to tie at 6.1 conference wins (with South Carolina close behind at 5.8), and since the two teams play on a neutral field each year, we'll say Florida, the more highly projected team, gets the nod and is sacrificed to a still-better-than-everybody-else Alabama squad.
Projected Sun Belt champion: Arkansas State. In my Sun Belt previews, I placed the two Louisiana schools ahead of the two-time defending conference champions; but again, our numbers love proven quantities, and it's not like I think ASU is THAT far behind…

For grins, then, here is a rough stab at BCS bowl pairings.

BCS Championship: Alabama (13-0) vs. Oregon (12-1)
Orange Bowl: Florida State (12-1) vs. Nebraska (10-2)
Rose Bowl: Ohio State (12-1) vs. Stanford (10-2)
Fiesta Bowl: Texas (10-2) vs. Louisville (10-2)
Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame (10-2) vs. Boise State (12-1)

There are plenty of other interesting teams sitting there with 10 wins -- Florida, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Cincinnati -- but while trying not to overthink this process, that's my best guess based on who would probably receive automatic bids (Boise State), etc.

So that's that then. Do you think North Carolina and South Carolina would mind moving their kickoff from early Thursday evening to ... about 30 minutes from now?

Comments

12 comments, Last at 29 Aug 2013, 10:16am

#1 by Mood_Indigo (not verified) // Aug 27, 2013 - 2:27pm

I don't think Stanford is going to lose to Oregon at home. Stanford has the defensive speed and athleticism to slow down the Duck offense. The coaches have the right strategy. The question is whether the Stanford D can execute. Meanwhile the new OC will add some wrinkles to the run game, e.g., getting Barry S. Sanders open in space. Stanford's last stretch of 5 games is brutal (five top-25 ranked teams and rivalry game).

#2 by Will Allen // Aug 27, 2013 - 3:05pm

I'm a sadist, so I always am more interested in who is at the bottom of the chart. Among the Big 5 conferencs, the PAC 12 has two teams ranked 100 or lower. The Big 10 has three ranked between 74 and 99, and the ACC four between 73 and 91. The poor 'ol Mountain West has half their league, 6 teams, ranked 98 or lower. Yeesh.

#3 by D // Aug 27, 2013 - 3:14pm

Gotta disagree with your BCS projections. I know ND is always a good draw, but I'd be floored if the Sugar Bowl passed on whoever the second best SEC team is.

Anyways here is my guess using the same teams you picked (with a second SEC team swapped in)

BCS NCG - 'Bama/Oregon
Rose - tOSU/Stanford
Sugar - Georgia/BSU
Orange - FSU/ND
Fiesta - Texas/Louisville

Here is my thought process (keep in mind that after the auto-bids and NCG replacements the selection order this year is Orange, Sugar, Fiesta);

The NCG gets the top two teams (obviously), and tOSU, FSU, and Texas (as the B1G, ACC and XII champs) are sent to the Rose, Orange and Fiesta Bowls respectively.

Next, the Sugar Bowl would get to take a replacement for 'Bama (the top ranked team) and grabs Georgia (or another SEC team). Next the Rose Bowl takes Stanford to replace Oregon to preserve its B1G-PAC tradition.

The Orange Bowl gets the first at non-replacement large selection and takes the most appealing team left (ND). The Sugar Bowl is up next but with Louisville and BSU both guaranteed bids they have limited options. Since bowls generally don't like to take the same teams in consecutive years the Sugar Bowl takes BSU. That leaves the Fiesta with Louisville.

#4 by jklps // Aug 27, 2013 - 3:25pm

Maryland shouldn't be amazing, but if last place in the ACC again, maybe time for a new coach who isn't so bull headed.

#5 by mm(old) (not verified) // Aug 27, 2013 - 4:02pm

5 of the toughest 6 schedules in the Country are from the SEC West. I'd imagine Bob Stoops is very, very unhappy with you right now!

Of course Alabama sticks out with the 53rd most difficult schedule, and in the East you can clearly see which teams have Alabama on their schedule this year and which don't, just by the strength-of-schedule rankings. So a lot of that is just how difficult it is to play Saban's team. Still, the remaining SEC East teams schedule strength numbers would fit right into the Big 12 (not as good as the Pac 12, however).

#6 by Josh // Aug 27, 2013 - 7:26pm

Of course Alabama sticks out with the 53rd most difficult schedule

That's cuz Bama don't have to play Bama, PAWLLLLLL

#7 by my name is my … (not verified) // Aug 28, 2013 - 12:22pm

Actually, it's because Alabama is playing VT (26); CSU (108); Ga State (124) and Chattanooga (NR) as a non-conference slate. Compare to UF, which also doesn't play Alabama, having Toledo (62); Miami (34); Ga Southern (NR); and FSU (6).

But don't let facts get in the way of a good rant.

#8 by DaveSmith_1 (not verified) // Aug 28, 2013 - 3:11pm

Speaking of CSU @ Bama, I was very surprised to see CSU with the #13 SOS. Going to Bama & hosting Boise State will improve most teams' SOS, but the only decent teams remaining on the schedule are Utah State(42), SJSU(61), & Tulsa(57).

#9 by Brian Fremeau // Aug 28, 2013 - 3:31pm

As with FEI, SOS here is calculated as the likelihood of an elite team going undefeated against the entire schedule. So playing Alabama is a big part of that.

#10 by LionInAZ // Aug 28, 2013 - 5:49pm

Alabama is to cowardly to schedule a competitive non-conference team.

It's easy to look good when you rig your schedule to have 8 home games out of 12 and creampuff non-conference opponents.

#11 by hoegher // Aug 28, 2013 - 11:29pm

Hells to bells that I have to defend Alabama, but they did schedule Michigan last year...

#12 by Will Allen // Aug 29, 2013 - 10:16am

If I could do anything to improve college football, it would be to develop strong incentives to avoid this sort of scheduling. You really need to shrink the top league from 125 teams to perhaps no more than 60-72 teams, however.

72 geographically balanced teams, with scholarships limited to 75-80 on a roster, would, I suspect, eventually give the NFL a run for their money, in terms of eyeballs on television.