Walkthrough: Only Allen News Network

Rams at Bills, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Welcome back to Only Allen News Network, America's only honest and unbiased source for news and information about the finest young human being on earth, Josh Allen!

Up next, continuing coverage of Allen's No. 1 ranking in Football Outsiders' DYAR. What is DYAR? And why has the formerly evil analytics community suddenly seen the light about Allen's magnificence? Here's our senior correspondent Pavel Streinikov:

"Greetings, Comrades! As longtime viewers, you know that in the past, the analytics community used pseudoscience to spread filthy agitprop suggesting that Allen was inaccurate and inconsistent. Well, all of that has changed, as this exclusive video of Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz reveals."

[Jumpy video of Aaron which was obviously edited hastily together from various television appearances]

"The numbers [clothes change] show that Allen [hair an inch shorter] is a better quarterback than [clothes change again] Patrick Mahomes and [suddenly Warren Sharp] Lamar Jackson [Aaron again, but from about 2007] and nothing will ever change that. All [jarring jumpcut] hail [jarring jumpcut] Josh Allen!"

Thanks, Pasha! Now that the numbers are on our side, we cannot fail!

And now for our medical segment. You need extra masks, and you have plenty of old Bills jerseys in your garage which can be sewn into masks. But which jersey provides the best protection against the pandemic? Our medical expert, dermatologist/demonologist Dr. Paisley Painkillers, performed an experiment to find out:

"You haven't worn that Nathan Peterman jersey in years. You're thinking it would look great stretched around your face at Food Lion. But can it actually protect you? We performed totally scientific tests with dozens of old Bills jerseys and found out that while a Peterman jersey may be good for absolutely nothing else in this world, it does intercept 90% of the liquid globules expelled by coughing, sneezing, or cheering for a Josh Allen zone-read."

"The only jersey that provided even better protection than a Peterman jersey was a Steve Tasker jersey. Tasker jerseys are so good at stopping harmful globules in their tracks that they have been shipped to hospitals throughout Buffalo and Rochester, with the inferior N95 surgical masks tossed into Lake Ontario. It may seem like sacrilege to defile a jersey commemorating the criminally-snubbed-by-the-Hall-of-Fame Tasker, but it's a sacrifice which saves lives."

Thanks, Doc. And while we know there are some anti-maskers among Only Allen News Network viewers, we implore you to wear your masks so you can protect Josh Allen from the Cheatriots Flu.

And now it's tape study time! Joining us for part 284 of his ongoing series of how Allen's incompletions, sacks, and turnovers are secretly successes is our own impartial and level-headed film grinder, Coach (not an actual coach) Homer McHopeful!

"The following play concept is called Twins Left 60 Double Sail H Sit Omaha Beach Oculus Rift Meatball Sub, by me. As you can see, the Cheatriots are in a perfect defense to stop this play, because they obviously hacked into the Bills' helmet communications or filmed practice or something. Allen brilliantly reads the situation and alertly notes that defender Lawrence Guy beats his blocker with a signature Pin Pull Rip Dip Torque Noodle Strudel pass rush move, which to your pathetic layman eyes just looks like a bull rush. Given no other options, Allen has the sagacity to arm-punt the ball off his back foot to J.C. Jackson, who falls for Allen's clever gambit by intercepting the ball deep in his own territory."

"This appears to be an interception, but make no mistake: a lesser quarterback like Matt Ryan would not only throw an even worse interception, but also get critically injured and retire immediately."

Josh Allen has completed more passes to the Patriots than his own team early on

(Via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/qMgU63uj0L

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) September 29, 2019

Thanks coach! And now … wait, what's that noise?

[ghostly howling]

"Wooooooooo! I am the ghost of Walter Cronkite, the spirit of journalistic integrity! I'm here to tell you what you are doing is wrong!"

Nonsense. Have you seen our ratings? And are streaming numbers? Not from Facebook, of course: they classify us as harmful propaganda.

"SILENCE! There's no need for you to keep spinning Allen's performance in illogical ways and incessantly attacking his critics anymore! He is now a solid NFL quarterback!"

You mean a spectacular quarterback, probably better than Brett Favre in his prime.

"Do you dare contradict the ghost of Walter Cronkite? Stop exaggerating. Allen has developed steadily throughout his career and is off to an excellent start in 2020. You may savor this moment, but then you must prepare for what comes next!"

Seven straight Super Bowls?

"No! A seat at the table with the likes of Dak Prescott, DeShaun Watson, and other 'proven' young veterans who have not reached the Mahomes/Jackson heights. There will be ups and downs, triumph and heartbreak, and a whole new category of sportstalk debates. Why, look at Carson Wentz: he climbed far higher than Allen in years past, but his 2020 season is fraught with frustration and doubt! Heed my words: Allen and the Bills have accomplished much, but there is also much more left to be done. And that's the way it is … is … is..."

 

[ghost fades away into ectoplasmic nothingness]

There you have it, folks. Maybe the Only Allen News Network got carried away at times, went overboard praising Allen in the past, rode our hobby horses against past quarterbacks a little too long and got too caught up in beefs with our perceived enemies. But this is the dawn of a new era. Allen faces Jared Goff on Sunday: another young quarterback with boosters and detractors, strengths and weaknesses, someone who has proven he can guide his team to the Super Bowl despite some flaws. Frankly, it will be a tough matchup, especially with the Bills defense not playing very well. Let's all be as honest and objective as possible so we can truly gauge how far the Bills and their young quarterback have come, then enjoy what promises to be a fun season and future.

This is the Only Allen News Network signing off, forever.

[Click. Static.]

[Changes channel].

Good evening from San Francisco. I'm Rachel Blahblah, and welcome to Mullens Stans-NBC!

Prediction: Rams 24, Bills 23

Packers at Saints, Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

AARON RODGERS AGAINST HUMANITY UPDATE: Aaron Rodgers has targeted Davante Adams seven times on passes of 10-plus air yards; Adams has five catches for 107 yards and a touchdown. But Rodgers has targeted other receivers 14 times on passes of 10-plus air yards for nine receptions, 240 yards, and touchdowns to Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Robert Tonyan. The rest of the NFC should be very worried if Rodgers has learned to acknowledge the existence and basic human dignity of his non-Adams receivers.

Meanwhile, in Saints notes:

• The Saints lead the NFL in penalty yardage with 248 yards. They have committed six pass interference fouls (for 150 yards), three holding penalties, four variations on defensive roughness and a scattering of other infractions. They are not nearly good enough to keep pace with the top teams in the NFC if they keep offering up 124 yards per week to penalties.
   
• Drew Brees' average yards to the sticks is a league-low -4.0 per Next Gen Stats, 1.1 yards per throw lower than Patrick Mahomes (surprise!) in second-to-last place. His average intended yards of 5.0 also ranks last in the NFL. His average air yards on completions of 3.5 is the second-lowest in the league, just ahead of Sam Darnold at 3.5.

The Saints are in big trouble until Michael Thomas returns, folks.

Prediction: Packers 31, Saints 20

Cowboys at Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Have you ever wondered what happens if you brew a pot of coffee, then pour that coffee back into your coffee machine and tried to brew it into some sort of super coffee? Apparently, it can be safely done without burning down your kitchen or making your heart explode. I'm guessing the results taste a lot like the 2020 Cowboys. They're even more stacked and explosive on offense than ever! Yet even more self-defeating!

Seriously, from the first quarter fumbles to the multiple failed fake punts, the Cowboys would be 0-2 right now if they hadn't faced the NFL's most dedicated wrestling jobbers last week. And yet they're clearly a pretty good team. It would be a mystery if it weren't just an extension of the last decade or so of Cowboys football.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, are the 2016 Seahawks on offense and the 2019 Jets on defense. That doesn't sound like a recipe for success in the NFC West, but it has worked so far.

I'm reserving judgment about both teams until we get more results which do not involve the Falcons.

Prediction: Cowboys 37, Seahawks 34

Texans at Steelers, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Something to keep an eye on for the Steelers: they have fumbled five times in two games (Benny Snell twice, Ben Roethlisberger twice, Diontae Johnson once), but have only lost two of those fumbles. Longtime readers know that fumble recovery rates are largely random, but high fumble totals can be a problem, especially when an aging quarterback who has held onto the ball forever throughout his career is involved.

The Texans rank 31st in the NFL in open field yards allowed (see our defensive front seven page). They have already allowed four rushes of 20-plus yards this season. Only the Jets, who don't see the point of chasing down ballcarriers or doing much else these days, are worse against open-field runners than the Texans.

This game is bigger in its own way than Chiefs-Ravens. We know those two teams will make the playoffs. If the Texans lose this game, the Bill O'Brien Employment Doomsday Clock really starts ticking, while the Steelers can start assembling their playoff tiebreaker portfolio. So the Texans desperately need this win. They probably will not get it.

Prediction: Steelers 24, Texans 20.

Titans at Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Here's the Vikings receiving data for the first three quarters of games through Week 2. Fourth quarters were removed to eliminate a bunch of garbage-time production:

• Adam Theilen: five catches for 63 yards on 11 targets. Only seven of Theilen's targets were catchable, per Sports Info Solutions.
• Olabisi Johnson: two catches for 35 yards on five targets.
• Irv Smith Jr.: one catch for 3 yards on four targets.
• Justin Jefferson: two catches for 31 yards on three targets.
• Kyle Rudolph: one catch for 22 yards on three targets.
• Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, and Tajeh Sharpe: two catches for 1 yard on four targets.

Switching to Kirk Cousins' totals, that comes to 13-of-31 passing for 154 yards, zero touchdowns, four interceptions, four sacks, two safeties, and just five passing first downs through 1.5 games of non-blowout football. (There appears to be a throwaway in the data.)

Derrick Henry, meanwhile, leads the NFL with 41 carries in the first three quarters of games, seven more than second-place Ezekiel Elliott. He's averaging just 3.5 yards (145 yards total) on those carries. Henry is also averaging 3.0 yards per carry on a league-high 36 first-down carries. Ryan Tannehill, meanwhile, is playing extremely well. I don't need to tell Football Outsiders readers that quarterbacks don't need running backs establishing the run at 3 yards a pop for them to succeed. Mike Vrabel and coordinator Arthur Smith, however, might need someone to point that out to them.

Imagine an offense of Kirk Cousins and Derrick Henry, coordinated by some orthodox establish-the-run adherent. It could possibly cause the earth to stop rotating on its axis.

Prediction: Titans 23, Vikings 17

Raiders at Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m.

The Raiders are doing a fine job spreading the ball around: 12 different receivers have caught passes, and Jon Gruden isn't afraid to draw things up around the red zone for guys such as Foster Moreau, Alec Ingold, and Zay Jones.

They've also done a fine job staying on offensive schedule. The Raiders rank first in the NFL in third-and-long DVOA, but there are only a handful of plays in the sample. They rank fourth in third-and-medium situations and have mixed runs and passes well enough to set up lots of third-and-4 situations which keep the running game and short passes in the playbook.

Otherwise, well, the Raiders got a lot of help from an atrocious Panthers defense and lots of Saints penalties. Their defense is still weak, and the Patriots secondary should have no problem matching up with Raiders receivers.

Prediction: Patriots 26, Raiders 17

49ers at Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m.

How this game will go:

• Nick Mullens will go 14-of-18 for 185 yards and one touchdown, completing lots of well-designed short rollout passes that the typical sixth-round rookie could execute. Your Twitter timeline will be split equally between the "I was right about Mullens in 2018" contingent and the "Should the 49ers trade Jimmy Garoppolo for a second-round pick?" crowd.
• Daniel Jones and Dion Lewis will combine for infinity fumbles.
• Three 49ers players will become helplessly adhered to the MetLife Stadium turf until they are devoured by spiders.
• The under of 41.5 will be secure when Joe Judge elects to punt from midfield when trailing by two scores midway through the fourth quarter.

Prediction: 49ers 23, Giants 13.

Bengals at Eagles, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Here are the Eagles' 22 positional starters from last Sunday's loss, grouped by the regimes that initially acquired them:

• Andy Reid era (1999-2012): Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham, DeSean Jackson, Jason Kelce, Jason Peters
• Chip Kelly era (2013-2015): Zach Ertz, Lane Johnson, Rodney McLeod
• Doug Pederson era (2016-present): T.J. Edwards, Marcus Epps, Nate Gerry, Nate Herbig, Malik Jackson, Avonte Maddox, Jalen Mills, Jalen Reagor, Miles Sanders, Isaac Seumalo, Darius Slay, Josh Sweat, Greg Ward, Carson Wentz

Wentz is taking some heat, and deservedly so, but the underlying Eagles issue is that they are an aging team three years removed from the Super Bowl, and many of their best players are holdovers from receding eras.

On paper, this game looks a lot like the Eagles-Bengals 13-13 "Donovan McNabb doesn't know the overtime rules" game of 2008. The Eagles were a few years removed from the Super Bowl back then, the Bengals in one of their usual states of transition, and McNabb was coming off multiple seasons of injuries and maybe the backup is just as good speculation. McNabb, Reid, and the Eagles ultimately bounced back that year, but that tie felt worse than a loss (as ties often do), and it served notice that while the coming rebuild could be forestalled, it remained inevitable.

Prediction: Eagles 22, Bengals 22

Bears at Falcons, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Are the Falcons afraid of success? It's a more logical explanation for their last 3.125 years than the alternative: that they are actually trying to win football games with all of the talent and resources at their disposal yet somehow got outscored 78-64 in the first two weeks and forgot what to do with an onside kick.

To scientifically determine whether the Falcons fear success, let's apply this quiz from SixWise.com to their situation:

1. Do you worry that even if you achieve all you set out to achieve, you will still feel unfulfilled and empty inside? Hmm, that would explain the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LI. Strongly agree.
    
2. Do you wonder whether you are somehow undeserving of all the praise and accolades that come your way as a result of your achievements? Have you ever had a Matt Ryan Hall of Fame debate with a Falcons fan? It will take at least six months off the back of your lifespan. Strongly agree.
    
3. Are there occasions when you do not give a project your all because you are concerned that you might outshine your friends and colleagues? Yes. Those occasions are called "Sundays." Strongly agree.
    
4. Have you ever engaged in "self-sabotaging" behavior to undermine your own job performance? We're talking about a team that let Steve Sarkisian call offensive plays for two years. Strongly agree.
    
5. "I am very ambitious, and if my strong career drive makes some of my colleagues feel nervous in my presence, well, so be it." No opponent has felt nervous in the Falcons presence since 2018. Strongly disagree.
    
6. My fear of overachieving causes me to gravitate toward tasks that others might find tedious and dull. That might as well be printed on a banner on the wall of the Falcons defensive meeting room. Strongly agree.
    
7. I am not a fan of competition in the workplace because it can cause jealousy and ill will among colleagues who would otherwise get along well. If any professional sports team is capable of being "not a fan of competition," the Falcons may be that team. Strongly agree.
    
8. I really don't want my colleagues to think I am more competent and skilled than they are (even if I am). Not a problem! Strongly agree.
    

Oops, it looks like there's a second page of questions, and this bit is already running long. Also, when you click "See Results" you get a long page of error code. Which, in a way, is an apt metaphor for Atlanta Falcons football.

The Bears are not afraid of success. They are more like the stereotypical person in the asylum in old comic strips who thinks he is Napoleon.

Prediction: Falcons 26, Bears 21

Jets at Colts, Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

What do you think Adam Gase was referencing when he said that it was time to take everything into "hyperdrive?"

• The Millennium Falcon's warp drive in Star Wars? Nah, Gase is a Real Football Tough Guy. They don't dare reference Star Wars.
• Various video games and high-concept television shows titled Hyperdrive? Nope. See above.
• The old term for 5¼-inch floppy disk drives? Probably. Gase probably still stores all of his data on floppy disks so that the secrets of his brilliant offense cannot be "hacked."
• Gase's favorite pastime of mainlining energy drink and staying awake for 96 straight hours watching game film of the 2014 Broncos at 2X speed and muttering "yeah baby, that's the sh*t right there?" Bingo.

Prediction: Colts 28, Jets 10

Buccaneers at Broncos, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

If Tom Brady keeps finding ways to face quarterbacks such as Jeff Driskel two or three times per year, he's going to play until he's 75.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Broncos 13

Lions at Cardinals, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

The Lions took a 24-6 fourth quarter lead against the Cardinals in the 2019 season opener, Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingbury's NFL debuts. The Lions then tried to milk over 12 minutes of clock on offense while their defense commenced to commit penalties and their special teams allowed a blocked punt. The Cardinals forced a 24-24 tie and took a 27-24 overtime lead. Matthew Stafford led a field goal drive to tie the game, but neither team could move the ball in the final minutes of overtime; the tie ended with Stafford launching a Hail Mary out of bounds.

Since then, Murray has developed; Kingsbury's wacky system has taken root; the Cardinals added DeAndre Hopkins, Kenyan Drake, and others; their defense has progressed from "feeble" to "adequate;" and they are now a 2-0 team with lots of potential and a distinct personality. The Lions, meanwhile, have gone 3-14 and are still trying to establish a "winning culture."

Both team's future trajectories should have been easy to chart by the end of that 2019 season opener.

Prediction: Cardinals 27, Lions 23

Washington at Browns, Sunday, 1 p.m.

The Browns showed us on Thursday night what they are supposed to look like: Odell Beckham bombs, Myles Garrett strip-sacks, 210 Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt rushing yards, play-action rollouts, offensive balance, a withering pass rush, a comfortable Baker Mayfield distributing the ball to multiple targets with only one brain-cramp interception. Sure, they need to clean up the silly penalties (intentional grounding at a lineman's feet, reaching for the quarterback's facemask to sack him), and they need to prove that they can play like they did on Thursday against non-MAC-caliber competition, but the Browns finally demonstrated the potential to grow into a rock-solid playoff contender.

In other words, after four years of never-ending regime changes, philosophical shifts, and splashy offseason acquisitions, the Browns are almost the Minnesota Vikings.

Prediction: Browns 22, Washington 17

Panthers at Chargers, Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

The Panthers lead this all-time series 4-1. The lone Chargers victory occurred on October 24, 2004. Jake Delhomme led the Panthers on a pair of drives which ended with 28- and 21-yard field goals; LaDainian Tomlinson fumbled on the only play of the Chargers possession in between. The two teams traded punts in a 6-0 game for the rest of the first half, and I get the impression head coaches John Fox and Marty Schottenheimer loved it.

Drew Brees led the Chargers on a third-quarter drive capped by a Tomlinson touchdown, and Tomlinson did most of the grunt work in a field goal drive on the next possession. Then came more punts and turnovers until midway through the fourth quarter, when the Panthers reached field goal range trailing 10-6. Take it away, ESPN game recap from that afternoon:

After a sure touchdown slipped through Muhsin Muhammad's fingers in the end zone, the Panthers seemed to panic. They ran Nick Goings for 5 yards on second-and-15 at the 30, then handed off to rookie Joey Harris for a yard on third-and-10, seemingly setting up Carolina for John Kasay's field goal. Instead, the Panthers went for it and Muhammad failed to make the reception.

That sure sounds like John Fox's coaching, doesn't it? Going for it may have been the right call, but not after rushing twice to set up fourth-and-9, and settling for short field goals put the Panthers in this predicament in the first place. Jesse Chatman, filling in for the dinged-up Tomlinson, had a 52-yard carry while the Chargers milked the clock, then put the game out of reach with a late touchdown for a 17-6 win.

This game promises to be at least as scintillating as that one sounded.

Prediction: Chargers 20, Panthers 17

Dolphins at Jaguars, Thursday, 8:30 p.m.

Rookie cornerback Noah Igbinoghene shadowed Stefon Diggs for much of Sunday's Dolphins loss to the Bills. As Steven Ruiz's cutup shows in this NFL Wire piece, Igbinoghene followed Diggs into the slot and in motion, and he spent most of the afternoon bursting into flames. Byron Jones was hurt early in the game, but Xavien Howard is still on the Dolphins roster, yet a rookie was purposely assigned to the opponent's best receiver. Brian Flores spent several years drinking from the same water supply as Matt "Defensive Adjustments are a Sign of Weakness" Patricia, so this situation bears monitoring.

The Dolphins have the NFL's worst defense according to DVOA, and Jones appears to be out for Thursday night. The Jaguars have created just 14 pass pressures in the first two games, second-lowest to the Panthers in the league. The number is 47, and I am feeling the over.

Prediction: Jaguars 38, Dolphins 30.

Chiefs at Ravens, Monday, 8:15 p.m.

In the spring and summer, when I was locked in the house trembling at the fate of the world, I would stumble over this game on the schedule when prepping a Football Outsiders Almanac chapter or an article for my former employer. I would think about Mahomes-Jackson III -- really, the first meeting in which they are MAHOMES and JACKSON, dueling MVPs -- and I would hope against hope.

Would this game ever really happen?

If it did, would I get paid to write about it?

This game, even more than the start of the season, was a beacon, a potential reward for muddling through weeks of fear and doubt. It looked like a pipe dream at times, a monkey's paw promise (sure, you will watch that game, but from the burnt-out shell of human society) at others. It was an oasis, or a mirage, to crawl towards across the desert.

Now it is here. The world's problems remain problems, but the NFL somehow runs smoothly amid the chaos. We get to watch Jackson versus Mahomes, both undefeated, and I get to write to you about it. All is not nearly well, but some things are OK.

I have no spectacular insights or observations about this game, except that the Ravens clearly look like the better team after two weeks. All I want to do is watch the game, enjoy it, learn from it, and cherish it, because just a few months ago there were no guarantees that we would ever see it.

Prediction: Ravens 34, Chiefs 27.