Aaron Rodgers' Diplomatic Immunity, Pat Mahomes' Kryptonite

NFL Week 9 - (At NFL Headquarters on Thursday.)

ROGER GOODELL: Hey Aaron, thanks for coming in on such short notice.

AARON RODGERS: Let's make this quick. I'm heading to the Stuffy Rooms Retirement Community in an hour.

GOODELL: Charity event? Visiting a loved one?

RODGERS: "Loved one." That's funny. No, I just enjoy berating elderly folks about all the mistakes they made in their lives.

GOODELL: Whatever. We need to sort out this week's scandal. So tell me straight out: have you been vaccinated?

RODGERS: I have been immunized.

GOODELL: Well, that was easy. Wait … what do you mean by "immunized?"

RODGERS: I'm on a strict regimen of ginseng tea, therapeutic touch, and magnetic copper bracelets, all under the supervision of a board-licensed cosmetic podiatrist.

GOODELL: That's unacceptable. Let me ask you again: have you been vaccinated?

RODGERS: I have been inoculated.

GOODELL: And what, pray tell, does that mean?

RODGERS: Jake Kumerow took the vaccine, then I borrowed his toothbrush.

GOODELL: I don't think it works that way. Now please: have you been vaccinated?

RODGERS: I have been variolated!

GOODELL: (rubbing temples) What the hell does that mean?

RODGERS: I inserted a needle into the pox-laden pustule on the back of an ox, then pricked myself with it. Actually, I asked a direct ancestor of Lady Mary Wortley to do it for me. I'm afraid of needles. And oxen.

GOODELL: All of this quackery and these cover-ups are causing a real PR nightmare. You have left me no choice. C'mon in, Brian.

RODGERS: (Rolling eyes like a petulant middle schooler, or like Aaron Rodgers.) Ha. Good luck getting me to listen to that guy.

BRIAN GUTEKUNST: Aaron, I ORDER you to remain unvaccinated.

RODGERS: What?

GUTEKUNST: You heard me. As your superior, I insist that you remain unvaccinated. Put as many people as possible at risk. Run around team headquarters coughing. Do as you're told like a good subordinate.

RODGERS: Oh yeah? I'll show you! (Grabs the random syringes that are just lying around NFL headquarters). Moderna: JAB. Pfizer: JAB. Johnson & Johnson: JAB. The ones they use in China: JAB. Booster shots: JAB. Flu shot: JAB. Take that, so-called "superior!"

GOODELL: You see, fellas? Some of these dillweeds are just oppositional-defiant and do dumb things so they can feel like free-thinking rebels.

DR. FAUCI: I should have thought of that trick 10 months ago.

Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

So, all the Packers have to do is play two-high safeties all game and Jordan Love will notch an upset in his first career start? Is that how football works?

Walkthrough chuckled about a two-deep shell being Aaron Rodgers' "kryptonite" earlier in the season. Now two high safeties are the secret weapon that destroys Patrick Mahomes as well. If only NFL coaches played nothing but two-high looks on defense and used nothing but pre-snap motion and play-action (but NO HANDOFFS) on offense, every team would go undefeated.

Sigh. Sometimes it feels like the more sophisticated NFL analysis becomes, the more facile some of the arguments become.

Walkthrough doesn't have a ready tool for separating passes against two deep safeties from passes against other formations. But Sports Info Solutions allows us to separate passes into two coverage bins: Cover-2, Man-2, Cover-4 and prevent (the most likely coverages from a two-high look) in one bin, and everything else in another. It's a little wobbly, but classifying "two high safeties" into one big heap (are they 12 yards off the line or 20? What is their split? How are the corners aligned? What's the game situation?) is pretty wobbly too.

Anyway, Chiefs quarterbacks complete 62.5% of their passes against the two-deep coverage family, for 6.54 yards per attempt, a 0.7% touchdown rate, and a 3.9% interception rate. Those are some rough stats. Against the other family of coverages, their completion rate jumps to 70.0% completion, 6.96 yards, 10.0% TDs and 2.5% INTs. Two deep safeties really are Mahomes' kryptonite!

Since this research was done on Wednesday morning (whoops!), we ran Rodgers as well. Packers quarterbacks complete 57.7% of their passes for 7.45 yards per attempt, a 2.8% touchdown rate, and a 2.8% interception rate against the two-deep family. Against the other family: a 73.7% completion rate, 8.57 yards per attempt, an 8.1% touchdown rate, and a 0.5% interception rate. Two deep safeties really are Rodgers' kryptonite too!

And now for the NFL averages:

	Two-Deep Family	Other Family
Comp%	64.4%	66.0%
Yards/Att	7.13	6.83
TD%	3.9%	5.9%
Int%	3.1%	1.8%
Rating	81.0	97.6

Holy cow! Two-deep shells are EVERYONE'S kryptonite. Which makes them … plutonium?

As you probably knew before you started reading, two-high safety formations and coverages work so well against quarterbacks because they are specifically designed for use in deep passing situations! Go figure! Also, there are powerful distortions built into this data. Most red zone and nearly all goal line plays are in the "other" family, creating a high touchdown rate (and lowering yards per attempt), while nearly all third-and-forever passes fall within the two-deep family, increasing their interception rate

Now, the Mahomes splits are indeed much more pronounced than the league average splits. Mahomes (and Rodgers) have achieved success by attacking defenses aggressively and are therefore likely to take greater risks against a two-high look. Conversely, the league averages are full of quarterbacks working underneath, often sub-optimally, against the two-deep coverage family.

Also, Mahomes faces more two-deep shells than any quarterback in the NFL: the Chiefs have attempted 151 passes against the two-deep coverage family, while no other team has attempted more than 109. Deep safeties aren't a secret weapon, they're a survival strategy against Mahomes and Tyreek Hill. And those six interceptions are just telling us that Mahomes is in a slump, not that he cannot figure out what to do when facing an alignment that's common on high school fields.

There's some wisdom in the suggestion that Mahomes should take what the offense gives him more often (and the Chiefs should run more often) when facing a steady diet of two-deep shells. But folks who claim that great quarterbacks such as Mahomes or Rodgers can be neutralized by one of the most basic tactics in football should be muted, unfollowed or, at the very least, politely ignored.

Anyway, this line plunged to Packers +7.5 after news broke that Rodgers thinks he can prevent dangerous illnesses with magic water and semantics. Walkthrough loves a backup quarterback in his first start (to cover, at least), and that over-under of +47.5 is well within reach of two weak defenses. The parlay pays out at +285, and you just know we couldn't resist. (It's since moved slightly to Packers +7 and over/under of 48.) Chiefs 31, Packers 27.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Odell Beckham Jr. is so washed up that even his social media beefs have gotten stale. A video of all the times Baker Mayfield didn't see that you were wide open set to "Everybody Hurts" by R.E.M.? Who chose your music, OBJ, a 50-year-old claims adjuster? And enlisting your dad to do your bidding is a Tom Brady boomer move. The Beckham of old would have wowed us with bikini models, pleasure cruisers, and suspicious powdery substances on a platform no one over 25 has even heard of yet. Then caught six passes the next week. Then gotten injured.

The Browns defense ranks 28th in the NFL in stopping deep passes and 29th at stopping No. 1 receivers. Player props weren't posted when we went to press, but Walkthrough will be keeping an eye on both Ja'Marr Chase yardage and Joe Burrow longest-completion over-unders. But we don't like the Bengals as 2.5-point favorites. DVOA says that the Browns are better than the Bengals at just about everything except the deep ball. And while Walkthrough isn't immune to "distraction" arguments, we have a feeling that no one is really paying all that much serious attention to OBJ these days. And as of this morning, he's no longer on the team. Browns 24, Bengals 22.

New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m.

I have been reading the Marvel Comics 1990s X-Men Onslaught Saga recently to keep up with a podcast I listen to. For non-comics types: the villainous Onslaught is a combination of heroic telepath Charles Xavier and his bromantic antagonist Magneto, merged by comics science. Onslaught combines Magneto's ruthlessness and ego with a twisted, frustrated version of Xavier's progressive sociopolitical agenda. Thematically: a clever idea. Practically: an excuse for lots of villain speeches, explosions, and collectable variant covers.

Anyway, Mac Jones is an astral projection of Bill Belichick's ruthlessness and ego crossed with a twisted version of Tom Brady's early-career overlooked underdog persona. He combines Belichick's ability to manufacture wins with Brady's superpower for spawning nearly religious devotion from Patriots fans.

I slipped a shorter version of this gag into my New York Times column this week, but thought I would explain the joke here, because most of you are at least comics-reference tolerant, and because joke explanations make outstanding content.

I do not remember how the Onslaught Saga ends; comic book arcs of the era tended to meander for months before sputtering out with some Deus Ex Machina silliness. Rest assured that Onslaught was defeated in the end, but not before mopping up the floor with the 1990s equivalents of the Panthers, a team with the epic superpowers of getting Sam Darnold injured and beating the Falcons with field goals.

Oh, but I am fairly certain that in this analogy, Stephon Gilmore is Cable. Patriots 26, Panthers 20.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

How this game will go (The Kyler Murray edition):

• Kyler Murray-to-DeAndre Hopkins touchdown.
   
• Jimmy Garoppolo bounces an interception off Deebo Samuel's hands. 49ers fans exclaim: "WHY ISN'T TREY LANCE STARTING?"
   
• Kyler Murray-to-Christian Kirk touchdown.
   
• Garoppolo throws a third-and-20 screen pass to Deebo that results in a 50-yard gain and a field goal. 49ers fans: "LANCE COULD DO THAT."
   
• Hopkins tweaks his hamstring. Cardinals offense begins glitching.
   
• Garoppolo executes a 75-yard drive in which his ability to manage the pocket and willingness to check down, while not exciting, flummoxes a defense hoping to feast on sacks and turnovers. 49ers fans: "LANCE ISN'T LEARNING ANYTHING FROM THE BENCH."
   
• Snaps sail over Murray's head. A.J. Green goes out for a fade and is next seen wandering naked through Haight-Ashbury.
   
• Garoppolo scores a touchdown on a quarterback keeper. 49ers fans spontaneously combust.
   
• Hopkins returns. The Cardinals drive for a field goal. J.J. Watt Tweets a picture of himself waving a flag with a message about how resilient the Cardinals are, because he doesn't like making himself the center of attention.
   
• The injury-ravaged 49ers offense manufactures a late field goal drive to upset one of the best teams in the NFL through the first half of 2022. 49ers fans: "WHY HASN'T KYLE SHANAHAN BEEN FIRED?" 49ers 23, Cardinals 20.

How this game will go (if Kyler Murray is unavailable):

• Skip to the part where the 49ers win and their fans gripe about it. 49ers 26, Cardinals 16.

Minnesota Vikings at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Watching the Vikings offense is like listening to a really generic classic rock radio station. It's easy to slip into a mindless fugue state. First-down handoff. Second-down rollout pass that the defense sees coming. Penalty. Third-down pass short of the sticks. It's like the FM radio experience: verse-chorus-perfunctory guitar solo-erectile dysfunction pill commercial. Hours go by before you realize that you are drooling down the front of your shirt while absently nodding along to the familiar, banal mediocrity. By the time your spouse shakes you out of your coma, a Steve Miller Band concert is playing on the King Biscuit Flower Hour, and Kirk Cousins has been out-dueled by Cooper Rush.

The Ravens, by contrast, are more like satellite radio channel 2143: Hip-Hop That's Accessible for the Olds—often inspired, sometimes a little goofy, always stimulating.

The Vikings are 2-4 both straight up and against the spread against non-conference foes since 2020. In the past, this may have been the sort of trap game they won to remain in the wild-card race. But last Sunday night suggested that those days are behind them. Ravens 30, Vikings 22.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Game probabilities:

• Bills jolly-stomp the Jaguars, 2007-Patriots style: 59.999%
• Bills allow a backdoor cover due to lots of third- and fourth-down tomfarterey on offense for three quarters: 40%
• Jaguars upset: 0.001%
• Urban Meyer makes the inscrutably-checked out postgame remarks of an individual who sees the world through a fog of 1960s-grade tranquilizers: 99.999%.

Bills 27, Jaguars 13.

Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

The Eagles' run-pass ratio by week, with sacks included and scrambles reclassified as passing plays:

Week 1: 41.8%
Week 2: 43.6%
Week 3: 9.4%
Week 4: 21.4%
Week 5: 34.4%
Week 6: 29.8%
Week 7: 41.2%
Week 8: 69.4%

It sure looks like Nick Sirianni got the "screen passes are the REAL running plays" philosophy out of his system in Weeks 3 and 4. Now let's see if the Eagles have the quality control to not over-correct and build their entire offense around Jordan Howard and Boston Scott.

The point spread (Chargers just -1.5) and DVOA (Chargers and Eagles are side-by-side at 16th and 17th) are in agreement: these teams are much, much closer in quality than they appeared to be three weeks ago. Walkthrough is in wait-and-see mode to determine whether the Chargers can climb back toward serious contention or the Eagles toward respectability. Both or neither are possible. Chargers 27, Eagles 24.

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Walkthrough covered the Raiders in detail on Thursday.

The Giants imploded due to penalties in the fourth quarter on Monday night and lost to an opponent that was desperately trying to hand them a victory, but Joe Judge shrewdly shifted focus onto himself by claiming that he has been having trouble with his sideline headsets, during both home and away games, since the start of the season. Judge is the kind of person who always complains about his computer malfunctioning but won't place an IT ticket because it's "too much of a hassle." And that may be his most endearing quality at this point.

Judge is the sort of guy who, if football didn't exist, would starve to death in a fully stocked kitchen because he couldn't figure out how to work a can opener. Raiders 22, Giants 16.

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, 1 p.m.

The Broncos have four wins against opponents with a combined 7-22 record. Despite Jerry Jeudy's return last week, their offense consisted largely of passes in front of the sticks on third-and-long, while their defense subsisted on failed Washington fourth-down conversions and blocked field goals. (Both Broncos interceptions were Hail Mary's). And as Walkthrough pointed out on Wednesday, Von Miller's departure is a white surrender flag.

At press time, there were no indicators that Dak Prescott would miss this game and no reason the Broncos are capable of doing more than keeping it close. Cowboys 34, Broncos 20.

Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers, Monday, 8:15 p.m.

Justin Fields executed four designed rollouts on 31 dropbacks against the 49ers in Week 8 after rolling out just 11 times on 171 dropbacks (including sacks and scrambles) in his first 5.5 games.

Fields scrambled eight times for 82 yards against the 49ers after scrambling just 17 times for 112 yards in his first 5.5 games. Productive scrambling is sometimes a coaching point for a young quarterback: "If the first read isn't open, take off" is usually better advice for the youngster's (and the team's) short-term success than "If you can't find the checkdown target on the far side of the field for 3 yards the way Andy Dalton does, you are dead to me."

Fields also did a better job selling zone reads against the 49ers than he has done in past weeks, sprinting toward the sideline to freeze defenders after handoffs to Khalil Herbert and others. Even regular handoffs looked a little crisper, which can in turn help set up play-action (defenders sometimes key upon the quarterback's body language), which the Bears used effectively in Week 8 for the first time all season.

Matt Nagy returns from quarantine this week. If Fields backslides immediately into endless sacks and turnovers, Nagy should be forced to spend the rest of his life at sea. Steelers 22, Bears 19.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Taysom Hill in two starts versus the Falcons last year: 45-of-60, 465 yards, two passing touchdowns, no interceptions, five sacks, four total fumbles (two lost) and 17-103-2 rushing. Michael Thomas caught 18 passes for 209 yards in those games, and Sean Payton's passing game plans mostly involved His Lovechildness standing behind a six-man offensive line and staring down Thomas, so Payton will probably be forced to make some adjustments. Hill practiced this week, but expect at least a moderate dose of Trevor Siemian in a platoon arrangement for now.

(Ed. Note: Reports on Friday morning said that Siemian will start, so expect the opposite: Siemian with a moderate dose of Hill.)

Speaking of versatile backup quarterbacks, the Falcons have been using undrafted rookie Feleipe Franks as an extra wide receiver and special-teamer during Calvin Ridley's absence. Do … do the Falcons realize that they will have to replace Matt Ryan sooner than later? Do they realize that Josh Rosen is almost certainly not the long-term solution? Perhaps the rookie quarterback should be given every possible chance to succeed as a quarterback instead of sliding him into a role that any waiver-wire pickup could handle just as well (or better)?

But hey, maybe Franks will become Arthur Smith's Lovechild and will someday be called upon to beat the Saints after their roster is sucked into a salary cap wormhole. Saints 22, Falcons 19.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

This game has significant Super Bowl implications, per our simulation models, as discussed on Thursday's Schatz and Tanier podcast. But that all feels a little esoteric and theoretical this far out. The Titans could replace Derrick Henry with Adrian Peterson or an equipment manager in an old DeMarco Murray jersey and still coast to the AFC South title. A win will inch the Rams closer to the top seed and offer further proof that they can beat quality opponents (which helps our models), but the real meat-and-potatoes of their schedule, from a seedings perspective, starts when they face the Packers after next week's bye. As matchups of a 7-1 and 6-2 team go, this one isn't all that exciting.

The Running Backs Don't Matter crowd might love the Titans +7.5 or, for the truly orthodox, a +270 moneyline. Walkthrough prefers the idea of going to bed in the third quarter on return-to-standard-time Sunday. Rams 34, Titans 24.

Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m.

Having stared into the abysmal darkness of each other's souls for months, the bedraggled rivals staggered away from the negotiating table empty-handed, knowing full well they would meet on the battlefield in a few days. It was destined to be a conflict empty of valor or purpose: weary, ignorant armies clashing at the behest of distracted generals, each side doing little more than abetting the other's self-destruction. Such foolish Crusades! Such an unworthy prize! Avert your eyes, oh children, for there is no glory here, only the capricious pride which solely yields further suffering and despair. Dolphins 19, Texans 13.