Zombie Steelers Just Won't Quit
NFL Week 15 - The Indianapolis Colts gave the New England Patriots a taste of their own medicine on Saturday night, and the whole AFC playoff outlook instantly changed. The Buffalo Bills have renewed hope, the Tennessee Titans are in sudden peril, and the Pittsburgh Steelers refuse to go down until they're staked through the heart. Walkthrough is about to bring you all of the action.
But first…
Campbell Claus is Coming to Town
Thank you, Dan Campbell, for reminding us this holiday season of the true meaning of football.
Football is supposed to be about toughness, perseverance, never giving up on yourself or your teammates, and playing with pride. It's easy for those of us at Football Outsiders to scoff when coaches preach such old-fashioned values, because we know that NFL games are won and lost by great quarterbacks and the players and game plans tasked with stopping them, and that championship teams are built by carefully managing and leveraging cap space and draft capital. Slobberknocker football? Bah. Humbug.
But Campbell's Detroit Lions blew out an Arizona Cardinals team trying to clinch a playoff berth by a 30-12 final score on Sunday. They did it without T.J. Hockensen or D'Andre Swift, two of their only playmakers worthy of that designation. They did it by running between the tackles and by cramming Kliff Kingsbury's precision-engineered passing game right back in Kyler Murray's face. It sure looked at times like they did it by wanting it more. It was weird, unexpected and wonderful.
The Lions also threw the Minnesota Vikings' wild-card bid into doubt two weeks ago. They stuffed a banana in the Steelers tailpipe with a 16-16 Week 10 tie. They take opponents much more talented than they are to the wall nearly every week. And when the pandemic knocked them down in Week 14, they jumped right back up swinging.
The Lions may have cost themselves the first overall pick in the 2022 draft with Sunday's victory. But whatever the Lions have been using to produce upsets and near-upsets late in this season is worth much more in the long run than the spots of draft order they are giving up to the flailing, stagnating Jaguars or anyone else. That's not a statement endorsed by analytics, but sometimes you gotta have a little old-fashioned faith.
It's easy to forget what makes football feel like less like a pastime than an essential part of our lives. It's not really Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes; the NBA has more dynamic, multifaceted superstars we can watch two or three times per week. It's Pop Warner kids covered in mud; high school athletes drenched in sweat; fans of all ages living vicariously and finding inspiration through young athletes as they fight through pain, cope with setbacks, and face down challenges that appear bigger and stronger than they're equipped to handle without flinching. It's about satisfying that inner caveman. Or in Campbell's case, that outer caveman.
So thank you, Dan Campbell, for the thrills, the surprises, and the reminder that it's OK to not be very good as long as you keep striving with all your might to be better.
Game Spotlight: Pittsburgh Steelers 19, Tennessee Titans 13
What Happened: The Titans dominated the first half, but they led just 13-3 at halftime because they settled for two field goals and Anthony Firkser fumbled away a third-down completion to set up a Steelers field goal.
The Steelers cut the Titans lead to 13-10 on a drive sparked by their signature offensive play—defensive pass interference on a badly thrown ball—and capped by a Ben Roethlisberger goal-line sneak. Three straight Titans turnovers then turned into 31 total yards of Steelers offense to set up three field goals.
The Titans downshifted into Saturday Night Colts gear and tried to run the ball straight through the Steelers' hearts on the final drive, but Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was stopped just short of the sticks after a catch on fourth-and-7.
Also, the television director kept cutting to shots of Steelers fans waving Terrible Towels every freakin' time the Titans faced third-and-long. Crowd noise was certainly a factor. But we get it, CBS: Steelers fans love the Steelers, even when they are manufacturing grimy wins on frigid afternoons. Perhaps especially when they are manufacturing grimy wins on frigid afternoons.
What it Means: The Steelers did not play well in this game. At all. Their run defense made D'Onta Freeman look like Derrick Henry. They produced 168 yards of offense. They went 2-of-11 on third downs and looked ugly doing it, with lots of pointless completions well in front of the sticks. Two of the Titans fumbles came after completed passes: not precisely unforced errors, but not a sign of a dominant defense. The Steelers were just lucky to be facing a team forced to feed the ball to Foreman, Westbrook-Ihene, and someone named Racey McMath (the other guy who fumbled after a catch) instead of Henry, A.J. Brown, and Julio Jones.
The Titans still have a sweep of the Colts in their back pocket, and they're likely to need it to secure the AFC South after losing three of their last four games. They are not a very good football team right now.
In other words, the Titans are still on pace to lose at home in the first round of the playoffs to some opponent such as the Chargers, while the Steelers are still on pace to remain in the wild-card picture until the last moment based mostly on their knack for getting opponents to play down to their level.
The more things change in the AFC, the more they stay the same.
What's Next: The Titans host the 49ers and Dolphins before wrapping up the season in Houston. They need at least one win in the next two weeks to keep the Colts safely at arm's length.
The Steelers visit the Chiefs next week. Will a loss finally put them to rest? Probably not. Nothing does.
Game Spotlight: Buffalo Bills 31, Carolina Panthers 14
What Happened: Panthers kicker Zane Gonzalez suffered an injury during warmups. Cam Newton spent the afternoon executing what looked like a six-play game plan, and "Cam dives off tackle" was at least two of the plays. The Bills should have cruised to victory, but they needed some Panthers fourth-down blunders and a late-game garbage-time touchdown to make this closer-than-it-should-have-been game show as a blowout on the scoreboard.
What it Means: The Bills are not being graded on their ability to beat the pathetic Camthers but on their readiness to face the Patriots again. On that curve, they get a C- at best.
Early Bills drives stalled. They needed to get the ball near midfield to score their first two touchdowns. Josh Allen threw a costly interception before halftime. Cam's QB Power plunges and short RPO tosses were more effective than they should have been. The Bills would have been in real trouble if the Panthers could have kicked field goals or run a game plan longer than a kiddie menu. If the Bills start slowly, execute poorly, and fail to adjust to a run-heavy game plan of routine plays against the Patriots next week, well, we have already seen the results.
The Bills may want you to believe that they recorded a statement win on Sunday. It was really more of a mumble.
What's Next: Bills-Patriots II: Return of the Mac.
The Panthers face the Buccaneers twice in the next three weeks. And frankly, they deserve it.
Game Spotlight: New Orleans Saints 9, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0
What Happened: The Buccaneers lost an excruciating, infuriating, and potentially devastating game to their most dangerous rival.
The Saints defense once again made Tom Brady look his age, pressuring him into sacks, interceptions, and blooper-reel fumbles. The Buccaneers loss left the Packers all alone as the frontrunners in the race to the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. But the most troubling news for the Buccaneers came on the injury front: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette all left the game. The severity of the injuries is unknown.
Also, the Saints stayed in the playoff picture thanks to a TebowMania-worthy performance by Taysom Hill: 13-of-27 passing, 154 yards, 33 rushing yards, three field goals, nine series ending in punts.
What it Means: It's hard to figure out why the Saints can make Tom Brady look so bad when lesser quarterbacks can often hold their own, especially when the Saints offense gives the ball back so often. Pass pressure is part of the story. So is the Buccaneers' habit of seeking big plays when they only need 1 or 2 yards—Brady threw low-percentage deep balls on third-and-2 and fourth-and-1 while trailing by six points—while settling for short runs on too many first downs. Whatever the cause, the Bucs looked pathetic against an opponent whose offense consists of zone-read stuff and passing plays where Hill just heaved the ball to a random spot on the field and hoped a receiver would get there.
The Buccaneers have an easy late-season stretch, so their main concerns moving forward are the injuries. Brady cannot play at a championship-caliber level anymore with only Rob Gronkowski to throw to. If the Bucs limp into the playoffs with a depleted playmaker corps, they won't stand a chance against opponents such as the Cowboys or Packers. Fortunately, they have three weeks to get guys healthy. But a month would have been preferable.
Two straight wins and a soft late schedule put the Saints back in position for the final wild-card berth. If the Rams, 49ers, and Saints end up in the playoffs in that seeding order, finishing second in the conference and getting to wallop Taysom is going to be a real advantage. Though maybe not for the Bucs.
What's Next: The Buccaneers munch on a Panthers-Jets-Panthers cookie sandwich. The Saints wrap with the Dolphins, Panthers and Falcons. Eat your hearts out, NFC East wild-card hopefuls.
Game Spotlight: Green Bay Packers 31, Baltimore Ravens 30
What Happened: The Packers won another game despite a special teams mini-meltdown. The Ravens lost another game by attempting a two-point conversion instead of kicking an extra point to force overtime. That's all you really need to know: the rest, while fun to watch, was mostly filler.
What it Means: Walkthrough has been assured by our superiors that we are not expected to defend the analytics underpinning John Harbaugh's decisions like we're defending Hamburger Hill. It's mathematically debatable whether or not he made the right call on Sunday, and we're not all that invested in that debate; it's not like the Ravens are being criticized for going for it on fourth-and-inches at midfield or making some other analytically unassailable decision. However the calculations shake out, Harbaugh piled the Ravens' playoff chips onto two plays in three weeks and watched the wheel spin. Those decisions, not the Ravens' staggering injury losses, will be what comes to define their 2021 season, especially if the Ravens lose the AFC North or fail to even reach the playoffs. We might have taken that gamble once, but all the probabilistic arguments in the world would not have swayed us to take it twice.
The Packers special teams allowed a long kickoff return, interfered with a punt return, and shanked a punt, among other blunders on Sunday. It wasn't as bad as last Sunday's catastrophe against the Chicago Bears, but it's a weakness that kept the Ravens in the game: that shanked punt, for example, gave them the ball near midfield on their final touchdown drive.
It goes without saying that the Packers need to solve their all-around special teams problem before it becomes the thing that sabotages them in the playoffs.
What's Next: Lots and lots and lots of debates about the merits of late-game two-point conversions. Then the Ravens visit the Bengals with the AFC North on the line while the Packers host whoever is healthy for the Browns on Christmas Day.
Week 15 Awards
Offensive Line of the Week
The Lions offensive line of Taylor Decker, Tommy Kraemer, Evan Brown, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, and Penei Sewell helped Craig Reynolds rush for 112 yards and held the Cardinals to just two sacks.
The Colts offensive line outplayed the Lions line, but we use these results to highlight Sunday's games whenever possible.
Defender of the Week
Bengals edge rusher Khalid Kareem earns this week's honor, in part because we wanted an excuse to mention the 15-10 Bengals victory over the Broncos, but mostly because this play is both heads-up and rather hilarious, right down to the Bengals Twitter account mistakingly assuming that they retained possession:
SO IT'S OUR BALL! WHAT A PLAY FROM @khalid_kareem53
Watch on CBS pic.twitter.com/TMM3AtoKaL
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) December 19, 2021
Nothing says Bengals football like one player forcing a fumble, recovering a fumble, returning a fumble, and losing a fumble on the same play, with viewers left baffled about how to interpret what they saw.
(EDITOR'S NOTE: After replay review, it was determined that that Cincinnati had retained possession, but Kareem was down by contact at the 15-yard line.)
Special Teamer of the Week
More from the Bengals: Evan McPherson kicked three field goals, including 53- and 58-yarders, to keep them ahead of the Broncos.
E.J. Speed probably deserves the award over McPherson for Saturday night's critical blocked punt and touchdown, but again: we try to focus on Sunday's games. Also, we used up all of our Speed Racer gags the last time Speed was involved in a blocked kick.
Best Supporting Actor in Someone Else's Highlight
This week's award goes to the rando running onto the field during James Robinson's touchdown in the Jaguars' loss to the Texans. Watch him enter the frame through the back of the end zone at around the five-second mark:
Urban Meyer cares so much about Jacksonville he just had to be back on the field for that first TD pic.twitter.com/kMTJvJUwLf
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) December 19, 2021
No, that wasn't Urban Meyer. It poured for much of the afternoon in Jacksonville. You think Urban Meyer wants to be out in the rain, even when he is supposed to be working? Meyer was at home making money angels on his living room floor Sunday and waiting for some midmajor or broadcast network to toss him a golden parachute.
No, that was actually deposed Panthers offensive coordinator Joe Brady, showing up early for a job interview and demonstrating his eagerness to UNLOCK Trevor Lawrence's potential by calling a play before he was even hired.
Honorable mention goes to the two fans who nope'd out of catching Christian Wilkins when he leapt into the stands after his Big Man Touchdown, resulting in a 300-plus-pound man folding in half and sinking butt-first toward the ground with glee.
Christian Wilkins with the BIG MAN TD!
(via @NFLUK)pic.twitter.com/LHOMWTBWpx
— Sports Illustrated (@SInow) December 19, 2021
Oh, speaking of Carolina Panthers genius coaches past and present…
Burn This Play!
It's fourth-and-1. You are whichever of Matt Rhule's ol' chums just got promoted to offensive coordinator. Cam Newton is your quarterback. His arm has been a rusty hinge for at least two years, and he barely knows a fraction of the playbook, but he can still barrel straight ahead in short-yardage situations, and the Bills have had trouble stopping him on designed runs for most of the game.
So naturally, you call some doomed RPO screen. Yes, Newton's throw is hilarious, but an accurate throw might well have been a pick-six the other way because Levi Wallace gets such a good jump on the play.
NFL starting quarterback Cam Newton:
— Action Network NFL (@ActionNetNFL) December 19, 2021
OK, forget that play. It's fourth-and-5 at the 10-yard line. A touchdown gets you back in the game. Time to roll the pocket? Threaten some play-action? Do something to make the Bills respect Cam's legs? Nah. How about a straight drop behind the league's worst offensive line, allowing Jerry Hughes to easily swat Cam's pass aside?
On 4th & 4, Newton incomplete turnover on downs#Panthers 8 #Bills 24 Q4 pic.twitter.com/LAtUSIhvY7
— Sports 24/7 (@Sports24x7_) December 19, 2021
Remember when the Panthers started the season as 3-0 sleeper favorites? That was 10,000 years ago.
Frame This Play!
Just as the Bengals social media department was confused by Khalid Kareem's fumble-fumble, the Jets Twitterer didn't quite know what to make of this hook-and-lateral:
Hook and...throw it across the field???#NYJvsMIA on CBS pic.twitter.com/MiiiSGw3w4
— New York Jets (@nyjets) December 19, 2021
Walkthrough doesn't advocate building an offense about overhand laterals thrown from midfield toward the sideline. But the hook-and-lateral has a high enough success rate that teams should probably run it once or twice per year in third-and-long situations. ("Kirk Cousins-to-Justin Jefferson for eight yards on third-and-10, but wait! Jefferson pitches to Dalvin Cook with a full head of steam!") Instead, Walkthrough has seen perhaps a half-dozen of them in 40-plus years of NFL viewing. Let's get innovative, coaches!
Burn This Career Decision!
Let's check in on Frank Gore's boxing debut against former NBA star Deron Williams:
DERON WILLIAMS SHOVED FRANK GORE DOWN 😮
(via @ShowtimeBoxing)pic.twitter.com/CvJpUUxX2r
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) December 19, 2021
The rest of the brief bout was less lopsided, with Williams winning by a split decision. But do we really want to see a beloved tough-guy running back and likely future Hall of Famer "boxing" by hugging his opponent around the thighs before being tossed out of the ring like a drunk out of a strip club?
Gore says he had "fun" against Williams. Some dudes are just built different, especially dudes who play running back into their 30s. Gore can do what he wants with his life, but Walkthrough will be rooting for him to retire to a life of leisure, not whatever the heck that was.
Covid Szn 2021
As you may have heard, the NFL faced a sudden surge of COVID positives early last week. That surge escalated throughout the week to the point where teams such as the Browns and Washington had so many players unavailable that they were signing guys off the street and inserting them directly into their projected starting lineups.
Faced with some patently ridiculous and potentially dangerous competitive imbalances, the NFL decided to take action. One of two things happened next. Either:
- The pragmatic NFL and NFLPA shrewdly made a compromise which delayed three games until Monday and Tuesday so some of the asymptomatic players on the most depleted teams could return to the field, in exchange for relaxed testing protocols for vaccinated, asymptomatic players; or
- The sinister NFL and NFLPA nefariously made a compromise which delayed three games until Monday and Tuesday so some of the asymptomatic players on the most depleted teams could return to the field, in exchange for relaxed testing protocols for vaccinated, asymptomatic players.
Whether you believe the first or second version of events depends upon your rooting interest and your general level of cynicism about the league's motives, the collective bargaining process, or human nature itself. At any rate, there are four games scheduled for Monday and Tuesday night. Walkthrough won't preview them here because we have no clue who will be available for them.
It's easy to criticize how the NFL and NFLPA handled the last 96 hours or so. A little too easy. Yes, the league's response was haphazard. Yes, the relaxed protocols may increase the risk of COVID spread in locker rooms, though it sure feels a little late to close that barn door based on our national statistics and projections. Yes, the Eagles, Seahawks, and Raiders lost potential gimme wins and now face short weeks in preparation for Week 16. Yes, ticket holders were inconvenienced.
Now, let's hear any and all solutions that would satisfy everyone: players, owners, union leadership, fans of all 32 teams, television networks, epidemiologists, etc. Bring on the workable proposals!
Umm, yeah, the teams that broke protocols should have forfeited. And then the league should have added Week 19 in late January to reschedule games if neither team was at fault. And those games should only be postponed if, um, the fourth-string quarterback is required to start, but not the third-stringer. Oh, and testing should be daily for vaccinated players with no symptoms! Not for teachers, first responders, or (heaven forbid) sportswriters: I don't want a swab jammed up MY nose every morning when I feel fine and have had three shots. Just football players! And then the league should do something something something to ensure that none of this impacts the playoff schedule…
Not so easy now, is it?
No one wants games to be forfeited, even if some team "broke the rules." (All 32 teams have probably broken some rules over the last five months). No one but the most hardened homers wanted to see the Raiders or Eagles face a glorified version of Bishop Sycamore. Extending the season by a week might only have moved make-up games into the peak (per many models) of the current COVID surge.
As for the decreased testing: it jibes with both some of the expert opinions I have read and with how most of us are living our daily lives. The NFLPA performed a 180-degree turn on its testing agenda, but that's because leadership A) didn't have the support of its constituency when it comes to daily testing for the vaccinated; B) may have been grandstanding on that plank of their platform for long-range bargaining purposes; and C) is probably in the same place most of us are as we navigate through the latest surge.
Are the NFL or NFLPA above criticism? Of course not. But in the span of about 48 hours, the league and union were resoundingly criticized for not postponing games, then postponing them, then making a compromise that prevents future postponements. Sometimes, the same people leveled all three criticisms, even the contradictory ones. And many of those same critics, after accusing the NFL of all manner of callous or dangerous skullduggery, spent Saturday night and Sunday cheering for touchdowns. At some point, ceaseless knee-jerk NFL IS EVIL criticism just sounds like shrill, self-indulgent, freshman-dormitory, Stick-it-to-the-Man posturing, adding little to the discussion of complex, serious issues.
None of us have all the answers or knows for sure what the next month or two will bring, in football and in everyday life. Most of us are guessing, compromising, adjusting on the fly, and hoping, just like the NFL and NFLPA. And come Tuesday night, whether you think the league's decisions were fair or unfair, safe or unsafe, chances are you will probably be glued to your television, just like me.
Comments
59 comments, Last at 22 Dec 2021, 1:00pm
#15 by Todd S. // Dec 20, 2021 - 10:29am
Colts fan here. Can Wentz be terrible? Yes; he was awful Saturday night. But going into this week he was middle of the pack in either DVOA or DYAR (14th). Can I see him being slightly above average for 3 playoff games and doing enough to put Indianapolis in a position to win? Yes. Can I envision him making mind-numbingly dumb throws in a close game that leads to a Colts playoff exit? Also yes; I was there in person for the 2nd Tennessee game this year.
But we also have to ask ourselves, compared to what? If the Colts did not trade for Wentz, what does that look like? Taking a flyer on a Tyrod Taylor type of career backup and hoping he suddenly blossoms? Punting this season and trying to get a long-term QB in this year's draft? (Not unreasonable, but as it turns out there are no great prospects?) Indianapolis trusted that Reich could get enough out of Wentz to make a run in the playoffs. Time will tell if that happens, but at the moment it seems like a reasonable gamble.
Saturday night was rough, but I'm a big believer in the old adage that you're never as bad (or as good) as you look in a single game. And as long as the Colts can get a blocked punt TD at least once per game, I think they can overcome awful QB play!
#25 by MJK // Dec 20, 2021 - 12:25pm
"If the Colts did not trade for Wentz, what does that look like?"
The best other option probably would have been to re-sign and stick with Brissett. Which wouldn't have been a terrible option, after all. Brissett wasn't terrible and probably wouldn't lose as many games through dumb errors as Wentz will.
However, he also lacks some of the upside of Wentz. Basically, the Colts moved away from a low-ceiling stable option for a higher ceiling but lower floor option. If you're a marginal team looking to beat superior competition, that's the better way to go, since a marginal team with a decent but not great QB will never win against top competition, but a marginal team with a high variance QB might. So maybe it looked like the right move at the time.
However, it looks bad now because they Colts aren't a marginal team. There's a very good team...strong defense, good running game, good fundamentals...and a stable, low-ceiling guy like Brissett might carry them through to a championship... whereas Wentz might have higher highs, but has a greater chance of giving the whole deal away at a critical moment.
#27 by ImNewAroundThe… // Dec 20, 2021 - 12:36pm
This where I'll stick up Wentz. He's a much better QB than Brissett in pretty much every important factor. Jacoby is lower ceiling, agreed but also lower floor being backup quality for years and not having near the arm strength in particular.
Idk what $ Jacoby would want to stick around but it's true it's probably less than Wentz but still not worth it (it wasn't worth it for Miami at $5m, my disdain for expensive backups continues).
Going into the year you had the hope of Reich recapturing the 13 games of 2017 but at this point I think we can say that was a fluke.
The solution would've been to take the picks they used for Wentz and get a rookie in a package deal.
#38 by IlluminatusUIUC // Dec 20, 2021 - 3:12pm
If the Colts don't trade for Wentz, the most likely next step was a trade for Nick Foles IMO for basically the same reasons - he played some of his best football under Reich and his current team is desperate to get rid of him. Would that have worked out? Likely not, but he would have come much much cheaper in pick compensation.
#19 by Ben // Dec 20, 2021 - 11:29am
I don’t think there are many Colts fans who are thrilled about Wentz. The debate is he “good enough” or “not good enough”.
I fall squarely on the “not good enough” side. That being said, the Colts didn’t have a starting QB on their roster after last season. So they were desperate.They had Eason, but nobody thought he was ready. There was a hope he could grow into it since he had the physical skills. Since they cut him during the middle of this season, apparently that wasn’t going to happen.
I think Wentz is the best they could get at not an exorbitant price. And I don’t necessarily hate taking the risk. I think the Colts are stuck with him next season too, but he clearly isn’t the answer.
The Colts are a bit of a weird team. They have a really solid roster, except for LT, QB, and a dependable pass rusher. Of course, those are the three hardest positions to fill in Football…
#23 by jheidelberg // Dec 20, 2021 - 12:20pm
There are so many fans that simply want to move on from mediocre QB's like Wentz and Baker Mayfield. Move on to what? Aaron Rodgers may be available, he will move on to one team or stay in GB. You simply can not have Mahomes, Allen, Prescott, Jackson, Murray, + many etc. Is the declining Russell Wilson an answer if available?
I always wonder what the "lets get rid of our QB fans" are suggesting as a replacement. Trevor Lawrence, Fields, Zach Wilson, Lance, Mac Jones, you get to choose from the high risk unknown or the proven known of mediocrity such as WFT signing Ryan Fitzpatrick. He gets hurt and they have the equivalent with Heinicke. Winston, Bridgewater, Fitzpatrick and Dalton were the best of the available QB's during the past two years other than Stafford. Oh, wait there was that Brady guy, how often do you expect a Brady or Rodgers to be available? There was even an unknown to Brady at his age, but that has worked out just fine.
Lets say Rodgers is available, do you think he says, I must go to Cleveland? I must go to INDY? I want to be like Brett Favre and go to the Jets or Vikings? All we know is that if he leaves that he must go somewhere.
You only even get Lawrence or Wilson by being the worst 2 teams in the NFL, starting from 1-15 or 2-14 is hardly a solution.
Herbert appears to be the best of the young QB's, Burrow seems to be in the conversation, maybe Mac Jones. It was not long ago where Wentz and Goff were in this category. Where Herbert, Burrow and Jones go from here is anyone's guess, along with the already super paid Allen, and soon to be paid Jackson and Murray. Buffalo made a really pricy big guess on Allen.
#28 by Anon Ymous // Dec 20, 2021 - 1:03pm
In fairness to people looking to move on from Mayfield, I bet feelings would change if he were retainable to for $15mm annually. But when you're talking about $30+mm for multiple seasons, it gets a lot more dicey. Especially for a guy whose DVOA rankings the past three years are 25, 17 and 17 and who has shown little reason to think those numbers will climb any time soon.
#29 by ImNewAroundThe… // Dec 20, 2021 - 1:26pm
Slashing his asking price in half certainly helps but idk if 15m helps bc that's still more than any cap hit he's had so far. Probably better to just roll the dice on something else unless he's ok with the min (which of course he isn't nor should he be).
#32 by jheidelberg // Dec 20, 2021 - 1:49pm
Yes there is no Mayfield 15M. There is Mayfield at Kirk Cousins/Teddy Bridgewater with escalator for a few years later type money.
An alternative is to dip your foot in the pool and maybe come up with young Manzel, Hoyer, McCoy, Weeden etc.
The factory of sadness lives on, unless Andrew Berry becomes Houdini and finds a way out of this mess. He has come a long way from the original mess that he inherited. So far he has produced a playoff appearance and a more tidy mess.
#43 by Anon Ymous // Dec 20, 2021 - 6:07pm
I'm pessimistic enough that I'd probably move on as well. I just thought it was worth mentioning that it isn't a simple matter of "Mayfield vs. Who Knows?". Economics is a huge factor and it comes out decisively against Baker.
#24 by ImNewAroundThe… // Dec 20, 2021 - 12:23pm
Are my thoughts now. Close to yours. Wentz is better with the Colts instead of the Eagles but the Colts aren't necessarily better with Wentz (than with a guy like Pip last year). Team is more or less the same, solid roster. That's why they should've finally took the risk and traded up for a rookie.
#2 by Run dmc // Dec 20, 2021 - 6:12am
Notice how all the stories about NFL and Covid are about availability and competitive balance and NONE about concern for the players' health who come down with Covid. Why? Because for healthy 20 somethings (virtually ALL NLF players) Covid is barely a greater health risk than the flu. Add in the fact that most players are vaccinated and we are turning the league upside down for virtually no health-related upside.
So yes stop the insanity. Stop testing. Encourage social distancing when possible and gasp .. allow players to play with Covid. Close contacts are considered if they spent 7 minutes together consecutively. Really doesn't happen during a game. I have seen nothing that indicates Covid is spread during games.
Finally, Mike Stefanski, got Covid last Winter, got vaccinated, got the booster shot and got Covid again! Can't stop Covid people. So lets stop beating our heads against the wall.
P.S. For any of you who had a healthy 30 year old friend who got very sick with Covid, I did say "barely" a greater health risk than flu. Thousands of people die of the flu every year. Most very old or very young but sometimes young and healthy. We need to stop making policy by anecdote.
#7 by Dave from DC // Dec 20, 2021 - 7:59am
This insane comparison between the flu and Covid has to stop. While crafting public policy in response to an unprecedented pandemic is surely complicated, this much isn't: there are TWO major factors that determine the danger presented by a virus, mortality rate and transmissibility. Sure, Covid isn't Ebola, but it spreads like crazy, and even a small risk of death or long-term illness spread over a huge number of people means a huge number of deaths. US just crossed the 800K mark, proving that what we've done thus far isn't working, and your answer is to...stop testing entirely? What, on the assumption that if it runs rampant through the league it won't spread outside of the NFL community? Preposterous.
I've posted this before when others bring up the "it's not much worse than the flu argument," but it's worth repeating. From Hopkins medical:
"The COVID-19 situation continues to change, sometimes rapidly. Doctors and scientists are working to estimate the mortality rate of COVID-19. At present, it is thought to be substantially higher (possibly 10 times or more) than that of most strains of the flu."
In addition, peer reviewed research indicates that the R for Covid is over 3, versus only 1.3 for the seasonal flu; even the 1918 Spanish flu was only 1.8. We're dealing with a new virus that we do not yet fully understand, that has long-term health impacts other than death, that is twice as transmissible as the flu and ten times as deadly--now isn't the time for the NFL to say "hey, we'll just let it run its course." Yes, the seasonal flu kills people every year, but when was the last time it so overwhelmed morgues that they started storing bodies in Central Park?
#8 by PackerPete // Dec 20, 2021 - 8:28am
Huzzah for DC Dave's clarity. The NFL is making a business decision. The Omicron variant appears weaker but far more transmissible. The NFL has decided that the more dangerous Delta variant no longer exists. Scrap testing, hope to squeeze in the final two months of the season before things blow up too much. Omicron will spread faster in the stands than in the locker rooms. Not gonna play to empty stadiums again.
Tough call for the NFL. Let's just understand clearly the choices being made.
#21 by FanZed // Dec 20, 2021 - 11:48am
It's way too soon to say Omicron is less severe than other variants. Early data from Gauteng, South Africa (where the variant was first identified), suggests that its severity is comparable to early strains of the virus and that it appears less severe due to vaccines and a high level of prior infection. Vulnerable populations have suffered every bit as much as they did in 2020.
I believe we're about to find out how many NFL players and staff are really vaccinated. If teams are smart, they will tighten up on the masking and social distancing during the week. It sucks, but it might make the difference between a long playoff run or losing a Myles Garrett type of talent for the rest of the season.
#30 by jrtedrow // Dec 20, 2021 - 1:38pm
Pulmonary/Critical Care doc here. I rarely chime in to internet discussions about COVID because whatever side people choose to be on they will stay on no matter what arguments are made.
I just wanted to echo what FanZed says here that the early reports of Omicron being less severe are highly speculative at best and completely wrong at worst. The slightly less early analysis is that it is more contagious than previous strains and just as virulent. Much of the initial enthusiasm for a weakening in the virus is attenuated by the fact that many of the initial patients with it were vaccinated. A more troubling development is that it appears to be pretty good at evading the Regeneron and Eli Lilly antibody products as well.
While it is unlikely that anyone from the NFL proper will suffer long term consequences from the virus, it does not mean that they will not spread it to their families and others that they come in contact with. We here in New England watched Red Sox pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez struggle with myocarditis from COVID and miss all last season, so just being young and healthy is not the panacea everyone wishes it were (not to mention all of the NCAA athletes whose struggles with the disease were kinda swept under the rug last year). I've lost patients in essentially every adult age group in the ICU this year from COVID (not professional athletes, but still...) and I continue to have young patients who had COVID as far back as March of 2020 who are still on dialysis or have had irreparable neurologic damage secondary to the disease.
Also, for those of you with short memories and like comparing COVID to the flu. The 2009 H1N1 outbreak was no day at the beach. At the hospital where I worked back then, we had an all-ECMO unit where none of the patients were over 50 that all "just had flu."
#33 by Noahrk // Dec 20, 2021 - 1:52pm
How about the NFL's contention that there's no evidence of on-field transmission? Do they have a long to stand on? Because it makes no sense to me. Especially linemen, who are in each other's faces all game long, would seem very likely to pass the virus on to their opponents.
#36 by jrtedrow // Dec 20, 2021 - 2:33pm
It certainly seems unlikely. However, being in an open air environment rather than being cooped up inside together helps. Also, while it seems like linemen are touching each other all the time, a study of SEC players from last fall showed that out of several thousand player encounters, only 13 player pairs were together enough to exceed the lower limit of time for being a CDC ‘close contact,’
this type of study is only for on field game action, so it is very limited in its scope.
#11 by RickD // Dec 20, 2021 - 9:29am
People like you are why the viral continues to thrive and mutate when it could have been eradicated in three months last year.
Thanks for all the deaths you've caused.
"Finally, Mike Stefanski, got Covid last Winter, got vaccinated, got the booster shot and got Covid again! Can't stop Covid people"
That's because there are new strains. Had everybody gotten vaccinated and/or followed reasonable isolation protocols, the virus would have had far fewer hosts and would have had far fewer mutations.
But thanks for showing up here with your amateurish understanding of epidemiology. It's good to make it clear the level of ignorance we're fighting against.
("Omigod, a new flu shut every year! I guess last year's flu shot did nothing!" <- This would be a phenomenally ignorant thing to say.)
#12 by MJK // Dec 20, 2021 - 9:48am
“the viral continues to thrive and mutate when it could have been eradicated in three months last year.”
Agree with your general sentiment, but this probably isn’t right. Even if everyone in the US and other countries got vaccinated promptly and took other measures to eradicate it here, places in Africa and South America and Asia where the vaccines aren’t readily available would have (and did!) serve as Petri dishes to allow new variants to form. Look at New Zealand… they had eradicated it in their borders. Not anymore.
#20 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Dec 20, 2021 - 11:42am
A faster roll-out of vaccines to other countries might help mitigate this factor. Your sentiment is correct - it's a global issue. The larger the pools of the unprotected, the more mutation there's likely to be. That might end up being a good thing - possibly a non-lethal variant evolves that outcompetes the deadlier variants. The opposite could also happen. Ideally, you reduce the population of the virus to as small as you can to limit the frequency with which it reproduces and therefore reduce the frequency with which it evolves a strain that bypasses existing immunities (whether natural or vaccine-induced). That requires a coordinated attack on the virus globally.
#42 by Steve in WI // Dec 20, 2021 - 5:58pm
Look at New Zealand… they had eradicated it in their borders. Not anymore.
That is true. On the other hand, they managed to delay their peak (so far) until a point where over three-quarters of their population was vaccinated, and they have still experienced a total of 49 deaths. That is fewer than 1 per 100,000 people. Their total number of cases is only slightly higher than the number of Covid deaths in this country when you adjust for population. So no, they have not eradicated Covid, but they are in an infinitely better position than we are. And I would guess that if a New Zealander does contract Covid and require hospitalization, they will get much better care than an American just by virtue of the fact that their hospitals are not filled with Covid patients.
Honestly, the fact that sports leagues are still operating at all right now is an example of how we're just fiddling while Rome burns. In my state, the hospitals and ICUs are nearly 100% full and that's before Omicron has really become dominant (and before everyone gathers for Christmas). How you or I feel about the more than 1/3 of the state that is willfully unvaccinated is beside the point, because they will get sick, they will need medical care, and they will get it...clogging up the hospitals and ERs for all of us including those who've tried to be careful, and overstressing doctors, nurses, and staff who are honestly far beyond their breaking point already.
It's great if you feel invincible to Covid, and the odds might even be in your favor that you're right if you're vaccinated and boosted, but ask yourself: are you also impervious to heart attacks, strokes, cancer, car accidents, appendicitis, and so on? Because the next few months are going to be a really bad time to need medical care, and if we as a country continue to basically stick our heads in the sand it's only going to get worse.
#44 by RickD // Dec 20, 2021 - 6:50pm
Yeah, look at New Zealand. They eradicated it. But because the rest of the world didn't, it re-invaded.
The lesson isn't "oh well, we should just give up." It's "if other nations did better, it could have been eradicated everywhere."
Western nations are doing a poor job. East Asian nations have done a much better job, because protecting others from communicable diseases has become part of their culture. Even before COVID, it was common to see people in public wearing surgical masks if they were sick.
#50 by Steve in WI // Dec 21, 2021 - 10:54am
It is really hard for me to understand people who see it as a binary - either Covid exists in your country or it doesn't - and think, well, even New Zealand has Covid so there's no point in trying to mitigate it. There is an enormous difference between having a couple thousand active cases in your country and millions, on every level from transmission to hospital capacity to eventual death/disability.
The news in my state this morning is that they now have more Covid patients in the hospital than at any other time this year. That obviously includes January, when almost no one aside from healthcare workers had gotten even 1 dose of a vaccine. I remember in mid-2020 when the initial Covid restrictions were lifted, the supposed thought process behind it was that going forward we'd only take action to keep hospitals from filling up. Well, they're full again, and no action.
#41 by Bill Walshs Ho… // Dec 20, 2021 - 4:37pm
Hate to be the bearer of bad news, but COVID is not going to be eradicated anytime soon, if ever. Corona viruses mutate easily, its what they do. There are likely to be a never ending series of variants. We need to shift to an endemic footing and start addressing how we are going to cope with COVID being a part of our lives for the indefinite future. Thinking if we just lock down again or if everyone wears masks will be the panacea is wishful thinking.
#45 by RickD // Dec 20, 2021 - 6:54pm
Number of mutations = mutation rate * size of infected population.
We may not be able to do much about one factor, but we certainly can do a lot more about the other. But we have politicians demanding that all businesses and schools reopen long before the virus has been contained.
It's maddening.
We've gone through this wave behavior with the first infection, and then when the vaccines were released, and then with the delta variant, and now with omicron. We've really got to tell the re-openers to shut up already.
#56 by Bill Walshs Ho… // Dec 21, 2021 - 3:50pm
To what end though? When do you stop trying to reopen schools, business, etc? There is a long tail we have not reckoned with from all the missed cancer screenings or people not being evaluated for their diabetes, depression, etc. It sounds cruel but COVID isn't going anywhere so how many COVID deaths will we accept as a society?
#16 by Ryan // Dec 20, 2021 - 10:58am
God we are just destined to read dumb takes like this--takes that are always written as if the writer was the first person to think it up, instead of the same rehashed garbage that hasn't been true for almost two years now--for eternity, aren't we
#18 by justanothersteve // Dec 20, 2021 - 11:14am
My sister-in-law's brother now has both legs amputated below the knee after dealing with COVID last spring. At one point they cut off the respirator and didn't expect him to live, but somehow Mike did pull through. Not surprisingly, he didn't think he needed to be vaccinated despite being overweight and having diabetes. But sure, go ahead and spread your lies on how it's not much different than the flu.
The truth is the biggest health risk associated with COVID is being overweight. Obesity is a serious health problem in general, but the risk multiplies with COVID. You may not have noticed under all the padding but a lot of players - especially linemen - are overweight and at serious risk of major health issues from COVID. That's not counting all the other staff on the sideline from the coaches to media.
Vaccination may not completely prevent the risk from catching COVID. But it's well-documented that the vaccinated are far less likely to need hospitalization or any other health issues. Vaccination will probably make catching it no worse than a cold. Your rant is less logic and more a bunch of whining that comes down to "Waaaah, I don't want to get a vaccination." If we had more people like you, polio would still be a scourge but with today's technology the victims would have better iron lungs.
#47 by RickD // Dec 20, 2021 - 6:57pm
While it's a big risk to be overweight, it's an enormous risk to be immunocompromised. People who are immunocompromised are unlikely to get any benefit from a vaccine. If they get infected, they're pretty much screwed.
And lots of people are immunocompromised. And they can get infected by any hammerhead who decides to go out in public and party because he, personally, is young and unlikely to be a COVID casualty.
#31 by [Very] Special Teams // Dec 20, 2021 - 1:48pm
"Finally, Mike Stefanski [blah blah blah]....[but] We need to stop making policy by anecdote." You're using an anecdote to "prove" your point, then tell everyone else their lived experience doesn't mean anything because it's anecdotal. huh.
The cognitive dissonance of the anti-vax / anti-care crowd continues to astound me.
#5 by PackerPete // Dec 20, 2021 - 7:35am
The Ghost of Dom Capers Past visited Packer D Coordinate Joe Barry during the Ravens final two drives yesterday. With a 14 point lead and better cornerback talent than the Ravens WR talent, Barry started playing Douglas and Stokes ten yards off the line of scrimmage pre snap on every play. Naturally, Tyler Huntley took all those uncontested 5 to 7 yard completions to march the Ravens downfield twice for scores. Fortunately, the Ghost of Capers couldn't convince Barry to switch to a three-man pass rush on key passing downs.
From the second quarter to mid fourth, the Packer offense looked its best of the season, close to the juggernaut of last season. What's been missing this year, however, is the kill shot. Rodgers missed a wide open Lazard that would have built the lead to 18 points, and after the Ravens pulled within one score, the Packers offense went three and out, leaving the Ravens plenty of time for a final TD.
Still, first three game stretch of the season for the Packers scoring 30 plus points a game. No more mobile QBs the rest of the regular season. Hopefully, Jaire Alexander and David Bahtktiari returning soon.
Finally, how about some love for Packer O line coach Adam Stenavich for his work this year? His name is never mentioned during broadcasts. The only Packer lineman in his season opening position is rookie right guard Royce Newman. Stenavich has kept the running game viable and Rodgers upright with a mix of free agents and third stringers.
Go Pack Go!
#17 by dank067 // Dec 20, 2021 - 11:00am
The performance of the Packers OL under the circumstances has been unbelievable. I think they said on the broadcast yesterday that they used their 8th different combination of starters. Beyond just the fact that their best linemen have been hurt, continuity is extremely important to offensive line performance, but in each of these last two seasons the Packers have been able to basically just plug guys in and move them around and still thrive on offense. And last year they at least had Jenkins, Bakhtiari (most of the year) and Linsley (most of the year) as stabilizing forces. Their lineup yesterday I think consisted entirely of 3rd day draft picks and UDFAs, and while Kelly is a journeyman and Patrick has been around for awhile, the other three are in their first two seasons in the league.
#37 by Romodini // Dec 20, 2021 - 2:51pm
Has the OL coach been in Green Bay since before LeFleur? I can't remember a time Rodgers hasn't had all the time in the world to stand in the pocket for ten seconds at a time.
Joe Philbin, the Cowboys OL coach was in Green Bay for awhile and has done alright with the Cowboys' shifting line, but it has regressed from the beginning of the season and sucks in pass blocking in particular.
#40 by dank067 // Dec 20, 2021 - 4:09pm
It's actually a new OL coach under LaFleur, but yes, GB's previous OL coach James Campen had been there a long time and also has an excellent reputation. Looks like he's bounced around a bit the last few seasons. I'm actually surprised he didn't end up on McCarthy's Dallas staff, although Joe Philbin does have an OL background.
#49 by DisplacedPackerFan // Dec 20, 2021 - 7:05pm
Finally, how about some love for Packer O line coach Adam Stenavich for his work this year? His name is never mentioned during broadcasts. The only Packer lineman in his season opening position is rookie right guard Royce Newman. Stenavich has kept the running game viable and Rodgers upright with a mix of free agents and third stringers.
They did actually mention him yesterday, it shocked and delighted me. I've been putting his name in posts here for weeks because like you I think he deserves credit.
I also want to dig a bit deeper and mention that Newman wasn't supposed to be a starter either, though his preseason play moved him up the depth charts he started the season as the #3 guard. The Line was supposed to be Bahktiari, Jenkins, Myers, Patrick, Turner. With Bakhtiari not ready to go it ended up being Jenkins, Patrick, Myers, Newman, Turner. So even the opening day roster had your pro-bowl guard playing tackle and the other guard flipping sides.
I think I've managed to track all the starting combos, with the caveat that with all-Pro Bahktiari on IR to start the season it wasn't who they wanted, and since he's been practicing now for 2 weeks it's likely he will come back and there will be yet another combo. Though I'm only showing 6 different starting combos and the broadcast said 8. The were stable games 6 through 11. Game 12 they used the same combo as game 5 so maybe that was counted as a new combo. Of course I might have missed something but I did spot check with who pff listed as starters. Of course with Patrick starting at multiple positions I might have still screwed up.
- NO - Jenkins, Patrick, Myers, Newman, Turner (c1)
- DET - Jenkins, Patrick, Myers, Newman, Turner (c1)
- SF - Nijman, Patrick, Myers, Newman, Turner (c2)
- PIT - Nijman, Runyan, Myers, Newman, Turner (c3)
- CIN - Nijman, Runyan, Patrick, Newman, Turner (c4)
- CHI - Jenkins, Runyan, Patrick, Newman, Turner (c5)
- WAS - Jenkins, Runyan, Patrick, Newman, Turner (c5)
- ARI - Jenkins, Runyan, Patrick, Newman, Turner (c5)
- KC - Jenkins, Runyan, Patrick, Newman, Turner (c5)
- SEA - Jenkins, Runyan, Patrick, Newman, Turner (c5)
- MIN - Jenkins, Runyan, Patrick, Newman, Turner (c5)
- LAR - Nijman, Runyan, Patrick, Newman,Turner (c4)
- CHI - Nijman, Runyan, Patrick, Newman,Turner (c4)
- BAL - Nijman, Runyan, Patrick, Newman, Kelly (c6)
Amazingly they have only started 8 different players in part because Patrick has shifted to 2 different positions.
So Newman has started all 14 games. Turner and Patrick each started 13. Jenkins has 8 starts. Runyan 11. Nijman 6. Myers 4. Kelly 1.
I guess I didn't realize the interior of the line has been stable since game 5 as well. I just got so into the mindset of here we go again with another offensive line to start the season that I lost track that they have been playing LG 3, C 2, RG 2 (from the start of the season depth chart) for 10 games in a row now. Of course the OL is now LT3, LG3, C2, RG2, RT2. It just happens that C2 is RG1 so OL depth charts do get a bit weird when players can play multiple positions well. I'm really interested in what AGL will say about this line at the end of the year.
When Bakh gets back I'm expecting we'll have Bakh, Runyan, Patrick, Newman, Turner (Nijman if Turner isn't back as I think he is better than Kelly at this point assuming he can swap positions like the rest of the line seems to be able to).
#13 by DGL // Dec 20, 2021 - 9:53am
We might have taken that gamble once, but all the probabilistic arguments in the world would not have swayed us to take it twice.
If a decision has a >50% chance of giving the desired outcome, the more trials you run, the better the expected results. The house always wins not because they have a >>50% chance on each game, but because they run so many games.
#22 by Shylo // Dec 20, 2021 - 12:14pm
I still hope the Titans prove you wrong Tanier, but this game has shaken me. If they can't shake the turnovers, can they ever shake them? The Tannethrill is gone, and even when Henry comes back he might break his foot again having to carry this team. The best hope is for the offense to coalesce into average and for the defense to go on a monster playoff run.
#48 by RickD // Dec 20, 2021 - 7:00pm
I expect them to bounce back. The Lions loss was a classic trap game. They didn't suddenly go from the best record in the NFL to a team that cannot beat anybody.
Remember that Indy is >1 game back, since they lose the tiebreaker.
#51 by Kire // Dec 21, 2021 - 11:41am
OMG so happy to finally comment here. Hello Mister Mike, Im a huge fan from Quebec (wich mean im french, so sorry for my english). Im a big fan of NFL (in the land of hockey). Happy to join a group of intelligent football fans (ha ha this site is great).
What a strange season of football it has been (but again, what a strange year it has been).
I wish to all of you some great weeks of playoff games.
Football on a tuesday, that is a great x-mas gift :)
Great holydays to all of you.
#53 by bravehoptoad // Dec 21, 2021 - 1:40pm
Welcome! Curious, why do you like the NFL better than the CFL? I'm a new resident in Canada, wondering whether I should start watching Canadian football. (I'm in Victoria, so about as far from Quebec as it's possible to get, unless we move to Whitehorse.)
#57 by Kire // Dec 21, 2021 - 3:53pm
Thank a lot TomC. Mike Tanier is the only writer who teach me stuff on football while making me laugh. I use to follow him on profootball last season, but he vanish... im so glad i found him here. And i really love all of you people interacting with him. Hope i will fit somehow.