AFC East Camp Preview: Miami Dolphins' Summer of Tua

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa
Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Offseason - The Summer of Tua is upon us, but not every AFC East storyline revolves around the erstwhile Miami Dolphins quarterback. Von Miller has a long list of lofty goals for the Buffalo Bills. Cole Strange has some big shoes to fill for the New England Patriots. Zach Wilson is expected to grow up in a hurry (hush) for the New York Jets. All this and more in Walkthrough's 2022 AFC East Training Camp Preview!

Buffalo Bills 2022 Training Camp Preview

Heading into Camp: No news will be good news for the +600-at-press-time favorites to win Super Bowl LVII. The less we hear about Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and the Bills' deep cast of second-tier stars, the better. Still, the Bills brought in just enough new faces and have just enough depth-chart competition to keep August interesting.

Camp Battles to Watch: It sounds like Gabriel Davis will be WR2 after his 8-201-4 explosion in the playoff loss to the Chiefs. But who wins the slot job? Jamison Crowder did high-volume replacement-level dirty work for the Jets for three years and could shine in a quality offense. Isaiah McKenzie has speed and experience in the system but is mostly a screens-and-reverses guy. Fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir has " Bills DNA through and through" according to general manager Brandon Beane, which (checks franchise's history) is supposed to be a good thing? All three and Davis could play somewhat interchangeable roles. One thing is certain: Bills fans will worry that Allen doesn't have enough playmakers even if Odell Beckham and Rob Gronkowski show up looking for work.

Newcomer to Obsess Over: Friend-of-Walkthrough Dan Pompei profiled Von Miller for The Athletic in early July, providing details about how Miller embraced his leadership role in Denver (he let fringe players who couldn't find a place to stay live with him during training camp, for example) and outlining a long list of remaining career goals: setting the all-time Super Bowl sack record (he needs one more), leading the NFL in sacks for the first time, becoming the first player to win a Super Bowl with three different organizations, playing long enough so his son will be old enough to remember watching him.

"I'm the new guy," Miller told Pompei. "I have to win some games, get some sacks, and make guys love me." Yeah, all of that's gonna happen.

Returnee to Obsess Over: When asked about Tre'Davious White's status in late May, Sean McDermott said that the All-Pro cornerback was "on schedule," and little else. First-round cornerback Kaiir Elam drew positive notice in OTAs, but it's one thing for a team with Super Bowl aspirations to plug in a rookie at CB2 in a stacked secondary and quite another to ask him to fill in for one of the NFL's best defenders at the start of the season.

Circle-It Date: The red-and-white scrimmage on Friday, August 5. Bills starters will be shrink-wrapped in preseason games, so the scrimmage may be the best place to see Allen throwing to his receivers in something close to a "real game" setting.

Miami Dolphins 2022 Training Camp Preview

Heading into Camp: Some teams are exciting in the playoffs, others in the regular season, and a few in the draft and free agency, but no team provides more entertainment from its press pool on Twitter on late-July mornings than the Miami Dolphins. Brace yourself for moment-by-moment, warmup toss-by-warmup toss, heartbeat-by-heartbeat updates and analysis of Tua Tagovailoa's progress as a quarterback and value as a human being.

Camp Battles to Watch: Tua vs. Teddy Bridgewater isn't a battle. Don't be silly! (Mike McDaniel is about to learn that it's a battle if we SAY it's a battle.)

Free-agent acquisition Connor Williams is slated to play center after spending most of his Cowboys career at guard. That means Austin Jackson, Robert Hunt, and Liam Eichenberg will once again divvy up the guard and right tackle roles. Jackson is penciled in ultra-optimistically at right tackle. For a left-handed quarterback. That's worth watching and worrying over.

A lot of ink will be wasted on the Chase Edmonds/Raheem Mostert/Sony Michel/Myles Gaskin running back battle, when we all know McDaniel, as a Kyle Shanahan disciple, will roll with whoever is healthy, hot, and will frustrate fantasy gamers the most.

Newcomer to Obsess Over: Tyreek Hill provides both the thrills and the feels, but The Adorkable Mike McDaniel is the figure of fascination who will be providing daily nerdy/juicy sound bites in training camp while replacing last year's two-coordinators-and-an-angry-coach offense with a system that Jimmy Garoppolo took into the fourth quarter of a Super Bowl. McDaniel was +1600 to win Coach of the Year during a DraftKings "manager's special" in mid-July, and Walkthrough jumped on it. No coach is more likely to win the award based on 10 wins, Tua semi-competence, and gushing reviews from Twitter tastemakers.

Circle-it Dates: The Dolphins and Buccaneers joint practices are scheduled for August 10 and 11 at 10 a.m. Eastern. You will want to be glued to your Twitter feed and following every beat writer south of I-10 for those sessions.

New England Patriots 2022 Training Camp Preview

Heading into Camp: Things will be more Orwellian than ever during the late-stage collapse of the Belichick era, so don't expect any thoughtcrime to escape Foxborough unredacted. Mac Jones is ascending from Next Brady into MechaBrady! Nelson Agholor and Jonnu Smith are guaranteed to take a quantum leap in their second year in the system! There was never such a person as Josh McDaniels! Our offensive coordinators have always been J.J. and Silent Matt!

Camp Battles to Watch: The cornerback depth chart currently consists of Malcolm Butler (back from three years in exile and one in semi-retirement), Jalen Mills (found in the bottom of the shopping cart during the Great Spending Spree of 2021), Jonathan Jones (excellent slot corner coming off an injury), Marcus Jones (rookie), Jack Jones (rookie), and Terrance Mitchell (30-year-old journeyman).

Bill Belichick has spent 20 years proving that he will have no trouble finding three capable starters among this bunch, but the Patriots increasingly find themselves settling for "capable" instead of "Super Bowl caliber" at many positions. At least all the players named "Jones" will confuse beat writers enough that Belichick won't feel the need to make players take the field without names on their jerseys.

Newcomer to Obsess Over: Cole Strange thought his pals were pranking him when someone claiming to be from the New England Patriots called him during the first round of the draft. Only when Belichick himself jumped on the call were Strange and his family convinced that, yes, the Tennessee-Chattanooga guard would indeed be a first-round pick.

The Patriots will do everything they can to convince you and themselves that Strange is the next Logan Mankins. Strange is penciled in as the starter at left guard, so he'd better be.

Circle-It Dates: Patriots-Panthers joint practices? Sure, why not! They're scheduled for August 16 and 17, and they'll provide a rare opportunity for out-of-town eyes to report on how the Patriots are really shaping up.

The Patriots will also travel to Vegas to face the Raiders in joint practices before the season finale, but the combined paranoia of the two coaches could result in a three-hour Belichick-McDaniels staring contest while the players perform jumping jacks and stretch.

New York Jets 2022 Training Camp Preview

Heading into Camp: Vivid Video proudly presents Zach Wilson in Hotmoms Gone Wild XVI: Party Bus to Florham Park!

But seriously folks, Jets training camp generally has a frantic Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? energy, with bickering coaches/executives/quarterbacks trying to act unified while undercutting each other through gritted teeth. This year's camp is a little more like The Graduate, but whatever. Jets fans assure us that Robert Saleh's team is better than usual this year. They're probably right. But training camp is likely to inform us just how far the Jets really are from being any good.

Camp Battles to Watch: George Fant played well when he moved to left tackle in relief of injured Mekhi Becton in the 2021 season opener. Now Fant is expected to keep the left tackle job with Becton, coming off a knee injury, sliding over to right tackle while also keeping his weight in the mid- to high 300s and trying to escape Robert Saleh's doghouse. No team gets into more intra-organizational turf wars over their first-round picks than the Jets, who by midseason could end up with a former Seahawks castoff regressing to the mean as Wilson's blindside protector and Becton on the trade deadline rumor mill instead of on the field.

Conner McDermott, part of the Jets' All-Depth Chart Confusion Team (Zach and Garrett Wilson; Quinnen and Quincy Williams; running back and defensive back Michael Carter; Conners McGovern and McDermott) could end up at right tackle if the Becton situation goes Full Jets.

Newcomer to Obsess Over: Connor Hughes of The Athletic wrote in early July that Sauce Gardner is already the team's best cornerback. "He's big, athletic, fast, and possesses legitimate ball skills," Hughes wrote. "He got noticeably better each practice. It won't be long before he's entrenched as the team's starter."

Sure, the Jets love the fourth overall pick now. In two years there will be rumors that they don't like his contract expectations or preferred brand of shampoo or something.

Walkthrough was surprised to not find many minicamp quotes from new tight end C.J. Uzomah. Rest assured that he'll be a favorite of the Jets press pool once availability picks up. Uzomah-versus-Tyler Conklin could have been a "training camp battle to watch," but really, both are going to end up with a lot of playing time.

Circle-It Date: The Jets should be a fun preseason team. Halloween hero Mike White will be trying to win the backup job from Joe Flacco. Denzel Mims is trying to stay in the team's plans as a WR4. First-round picks Sauce, Garrett Wilson, and Jermaine Johnson all need to get their feet wet. There's a non-zero chance that Becton will be subjected to fourth-quarter shaming. Jets-Eagles on August 12 will be our first look at the rebuilt Jets. History tells us it will be all downhill from there, so breathe in that new car smell while it lasts.

Comments

61 comments, Last at 24 Jul 2022, 4:59am

#1 by Travis // Jul 20, 2022 - 10:37am

Conner McDermott, part of the Jets' All-Depth Chart Confusion Team (Zach and Garrett Wilson; Quinnen and Quincy Williams; running back and defensive back Michael Carter; Conners McGovern and McDermott)

Also running back Breece Hall and cornerback Bryce Hall.

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#2 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 11:17am

I know this will come off as strange but I find this to be the most compelling division in the NFL.

All of these teams have such wild potential outcomes coming into the season. Well, except for the Bills who are in the pressure cooker with the heat turned all the way to high.

With the exception of the pandemic season, this might be belichick's most difficult season to coach. And while six super bowl victories has given him an ironclad reputation, I will never understand the logic of moves that led to JC Jackson leaving in free agency.

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#5 by KnotMe // Jul 20, 2022 - 11:46am

I dunno, Lets see.

AFCW: This should be good
NFCW: Probably the same as last year except Seattle will tank

AFCN: Cincy and Baltimore should be good. The Browns may challenge depending on how long their QB is suspended

NFCS,N,E: One good team each. One team from these may sneak into expanded playoffs and get crushed.

AFCS: Well, someone has to win it. 
AFCE: Bills win the division easily.  Jets will Jets.  I suppose I agree on the range of outcomes.

MIA:  Is Tua good? If he can't be better than Mac Jones when Jone's best receiver is they guy they kicked off the island here....I dunno. Then again, good receivers make a QB look better, so could Tua be a top 10 guy with an A tier receiver corps?

NE:Nobody knows what to make of Mac Jones. He was decent as a rookie, but can he improve on that or is it the ceiling?

They are interesting from a team building perspective (approaches you rarely see), but doesn't seem like any will amount to much.  If MIA or NE gets in they may luck past the first round but it's hard to see them getting beyond that. 

 

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#8 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 12:04pm

I never said it was the best division, only that its the most compelling.

I agree the Bills should win it easily and probably will. I just think all of the rest of these teams have very wide range of outcomes depending on their quarterbacks.

I think NE fans would quibble with the notion that Mac Jones had a decent rookie year. He was 12 in DYAR and saddled with a below average to bottom third receiving core. However, much like early career Brady, I think those numbers are a bit misleading because the Patriots actively avoided putting Mac in bad situations (see the first game against the Bills). That said, I'd be pretty optimistic about Mac's progression. I think the physical tools handicap is being wildly overstated and recency bias. It's not like his predecessor was a gazelle himself.

 

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#21 by KnotMe // Jul 20, 2022 - 1:44pm

Well, if Jones can hang out around 10th in DYAR NE can probably be competitive with that. I'd call that an optimistic, but not crazy expectation. I do agree that the tools thing gets overblown. 

It's kinda funny that him and trevor Lawrence are both difficult to project for totally different reasons

Lawrence: The support structure borderline USFL, also...Urban Meyer. So we don't know much more about him than we did a year ago. (Like the podcast putting him in C tier. lol)

Jones: Normally, 600 dyar in rookie year and people would be pretty high on him. Esp with those recievers. But the tools + the system protected him so.....yeah, nobody knows. 

 

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#31 by Tracy // Jul 20, 2022 - 4:24pm

I'm as surprised as the next armchair gm that Mac Jones performed well last year, but I don't really buy the "system protected him" explanation. Are we really to believe that there's a system that works so well in MA as to make an unqualified rookie qb to look like he's above average, while producing results ranging from mediocre to dumpster fire* whenever it's been implemented elsewhere?

 

*Belichick coaching tree failures, in no particular order: NYJ (Groh, Mangini), CLE (Crennell, Mangini, Belichick v1), MIA (Saban, Flores), DEN (McDaniels), DET (Schwarz, Patricia),  NYG (Judge), HOU (O'brien, Crennell)

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#32 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 4:38pm

I would say the difference is Mac went to a good team with a cohesive foundation that afforded him protection. Other rookies went to bed teams with new head coaches and inevitably were thrown into the fire.

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#43 by JoelBarlow // Jul 20, 2022 - 6:55pm

and more "he had a stable well-coached organization with a good defense"

the extent to which a rookie QB's perceived success is correlated to how good his team's defense is is really underrated and probably more impactful than having a guru OC calling 5 yard passes for you

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#35 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jul 20, 2022 - 4:51pm

It's hard to explain any of Belichick's success if you ponder his coaching tree.

Unless he's some sort of succubus.

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#37 by RickD // Jul 20, 2022 - 5:01pm

He's not running a coaching academy.  He's running a football team.  And, specifically, he's not training people to be head coaches.

Pretty much all of his assistants have been good at doing the assistant coach job he hired them for.  (I'd be happy to accept Matt Patricia as an exception.)  Guys like Romeo Crennel and Josh McDaniel have been excellent as DCon/OCon respectively, even though they haven't succeeded as head coaches.  

And, as always, the "coaching tree" considerations always seem to omit Nick Saban for reasons that aren't entirely clear.  

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#39 by BigRichie // Jul 20, 2022 - 5:29pm

Because Saban's not in the NFL. (failed there, matter of fact)

You're free to disagree with the reason. (I might, if I cared) But there's nothing the least bit unclear about it.

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#44 by JoelBarlow // Jul 20, 2022 - 6:57pm

as part of an organization where BB was not wholly successful 

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#45 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jul 20, 2022 - 7:33pm

Saban had already been a college head coach back when he was part of the Glanville coaching tree, before he ever worked under Belichick. 

He also failed as an NFL coach. Weis had some college success, too.

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#40 by KnotMe // Jul 20, 2022 - 6:06pm

Ironically, his players have been better coaches than his coaches. (Vrable and Kingsbury). People omit Saban bc he doesn't fit the narrative and he was mostly successful at the college level. 

Mostly, Belichick doesn't teach the most important skill for a head coach....get hired by a non-clownshow. 

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#55 by dryheat // Jul 21, 2022 - 4:10pm

I would submit that Belichick himself got hired by a clown show.  Two, in fact.

 

The Belichick GM tree, with Newsome, Dimitroff, Pioli, Robinson, and probably others I'm forgetting (I haven't forgotten Bob Quinn...just....) has been much more successful that the coaching tree.  Which probably surprises the crowd that maintains that Belichick the GM has been hamstringing Belichick the Coach. 

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#60 by Spanosian Magn… // Jul 24, 2022 - 4:29am

I feel like it's not pointed out enough that Nick Saban was actually one of the more successful members of the Belichick tree in the NFL. It's a low, low bar, obviously, but still.

For fun and reference, here they are sorted by NFL winning percentage (through 2021):

Al Groh (.563)
Bill O'Brien (.520)
Brian Flores (.490)
Nick Saban (.469)
Eric Mangini (.407)
Josh McDaniels (.393)
Jim Schwartz (.358)
Romeo Crennel (.337)
Matt Patricia (.314)
Joe Judge (.303)

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#61 by Spanosian Magn… // Jul 24, 2022 - 4:55am

I'm half-convinced he intentionally gives them bad training/advice. Hey, if they leave the organization, they're competitors, and it's only logical to sabotage them. He seems sociopathic enough to think like that.

Matt P: "Hey, Bill, I could really use some advice. It's really not going well here. I feel like I'm in way over my head. Everything is spiraling out of control, it's like for every fire I put out 10 more spark up. The players are already turning on me. Ownership is this weird and intractable mix of inattentive but also unreasonably demanding. Fans are already screaming for them to fire me and bring back the last guy, and he went 2-14 one year. This job was my dream my whole life and it's turned into a complete nightmare. I always looked up to you, and I was just hoping you could give me a little guidance right now."

Bill B: [just barely stifling his cackling] "Try scolding reporters to sit up straighter. Shows 'em you're all business."

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#47 by OmahaChiefs13 // Jul 20, 2022 - 10:12pm

NFCS,N,E: One good team each. One team from these may sneak into expanded playoffs and get crushed.

 

There's a good team in the NFCE? 

 

You don't mean Dallas, do you?

 

*Jim Gaffigan voice* I think they mean Dallas...

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#9 by MJK // Jul 20, 2022 - 12:05pm

JC Jackson leaving isn’t surprising in the slightest. I’m struggling to remember a year where the Patriot broke the bank (which is what it would take) to retain their top rated free agent. 

trading Shaq Mason, on the other hand, was completely perplexing. 

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#10 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 12:22pm

Well i guess my retort would be, if the Pats value their players, they make sure to extend them before they hit free agency. This is how they avoid having players get to a situation where they can break the bank. And they have certainly extended multiple players and or traded them if they didn't value them at that figure any longer. 

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#34 by RickD // Jul 20, 2022 - 4:49pm

If BB trades a player or lets him leave as a free agent, the explanation is simple: he doesn't value the player at the price being asked.

It's only "perplexing" if you think he should feel differently about said player.

BB has shown that he will pay top dollar for top players (the one-year rental of Revis, for example).  If he isn't willing to pay JC Jackson the market value, it's because he doesn't think JC Jackson is worth that.  It has nothing to do with whether the team needs somebody of his caliber at CB (which is obviously true).  It's just that you cannot build a winner paying salaries based on need. You've got to pay them based on value.

Shaq Mason was a Pro Bowl-caliber guard a few years ago but has slipped from that level.  Apparently Belichick thought he needed to be replaced.  Is he right?  I don't know, but he's been making exactly this kind of decision for decades, and is far better at player evaluation than the typical fan is.

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#3 by Kellerman // Jul 20, 2022 - 11:28am

Did the Dolphins get rid of Tua, or replace him?

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#16 by andrew // Jul 20, 2022 - 1:27pm

With an exact duplicate.

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#23 by [Very] Special Teams // Jul 20, 2022 - 2:17pm

That would be One Tua Many

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#56 by dryheat // Jul 21, 2022 - 4:13pm

You can Tua piano, but you can't Tua fish.

 

No need...I'll leave voluntarily.

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#59 by Spanosian Magn… // Jul 24, 2022 - 4:12am

2a

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#4 by Raiderfan // Jul 20, 2022 - 11:39am

Mikey, how do you come to be so familiar with Vivid Video??

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#6 by ImNewAroundThe… // Jul 20, 2022 - 11:51am

A lot of newcomers, player and coaches alike. We'll see how fast they gel. Seem to be fun on paper. 

And the adjective big for CBs is funny because there's not many good ones outside of the LOB and Nnamdi.

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#7 by James-London // Jul 20, 2022 - 12:03pm

Two fifths on an o-line and a lot of wishful thinking doesn't leave me hugely optimistic-I hope Tyreek Hill likes running sideways...

On the other side of the ball, that was Flores' defense, so there's questions there. Throw in a bottom 5 owner, and you'll need to firgive me if I want to see it first. It screams 8-9, and a desparate attempt to get new "shinies" next offseason

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#12 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 12:26pm

In reply to by James-London

The damage an o line does, to a large extent, is mitigated or exacerbated by the quarterback. Unless the line is a sieve, a lot of its undoing is going to be dependent on how Tua performs.

Its interesting to see the general pessimism about Tua. He had a typical bad rookie year and reasonable jump to below average his second year. Its not all that dissimilar to Kyler Murray for example. I guess what's driving it is the fact that Herbert and Burrow look like stars already, so he's getting the Trubisky treatment. 

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#13 by Tracy // Jul 20, 2022 - 1:02pm

A qb is largely responsible for sacks, but total pressures are largely the fault of the OL. Tua has looked far worse than average when under pressure throughout his NFL career, so if it's true that Miami's got a bad OL, that doesn't likely bode well for a successful Miami passing offense.

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#14 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 1:07pm

I don't think pressures are largely the fault of the o line. In fact, most of the data that looks over this finds QBs are heavily responsible for pressure rates too. 

I think, above beyond the ability of the QB to get the ball out quickly, avoiding pressure is also about avoiding messy situations that lead to pressures. Ie - avoiding lots of third and longs; avoiding being down a lot. Basically, avoiding situations where you are forced to throw and throw long where the defense can effectively pin their ears back. 

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#17 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jul 20, 2022 - 1:33pm

There is competency feedback here too. It's relatively rare to find a great QB who plays with an abysmal line.

The list is basically Russell Wilson and the late-Manning Colts.

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#20 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 1:43pm

I think its hard to tease out Seattle's o line incompetency from Wilson's own warts in that department. Wilson is a terrific player, but this is a weakness in his game. 

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#22 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jul 20, 2022 - 1:57pm

Wilson definitely runs himself into sacks, but he also had an O-line whose best tackles were tight ends.

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#25 by JoelBarlow // Jul 20, 2022 - 3:08pm

it becomes apparent whether they can actually elevate you or are just products of the 60% completion, no interceptions floor that is now standard

unless its Fields who people still insist is good

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#26 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 3:15pm

I think Ryan tannehill and to a lesser extent, Alex Smith, show you how much supporting casts influence your on the field play. Hell even Tom Brady's last year in New England compared to his days in Tampa is another good example.

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#27 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jul 20, 2022 - 3:19pm

Goff is basically a barometer of the surrounding talent and system, too.

Tannehill and Garoppolo are guys who are really efficient, but whose teams also try to use them as little as possible. The strong suggestion is they can't hold their efficiency at increased volumes of output. That's what has me concerned a little about letting Russ cook. Tannehill and Wilson have been efficient when not asked to put up more than 500 attempts and 4000 yards, but their efficiency takes a hit when they try to exceed that.

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#33 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 4:42pm

Part of the appeal of letting Russ cook is his heroics late in the game when the team's conservative approach is no longer feasible and they simply have to turn everything over to Wilson.

It's a stretch comparing the two, but it reminds me of Tebow who could do nothing for 3 and a half quarters before suddenly stringing together enough plays to pull out a miracle.

It will be interesting to see how the Broncos perform as they will be presumably turning the entire offense over to him from jump. He's had half a season where he was sensational in that role and then a second half where it was a mess.

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#29 by ImNewAroundThe… // Jul 20, 2022 - 3:53pm

Fields lives rent free in your head after one year Matt.

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#15 by andrew // Jul 20, 2022 - 1:26pm

The Miami Dolphins have scheduled Tua Day practices

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#18 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jul 20, 2022 - 1:33pm

Take your filthy +1 and get out.

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#24 by [Very] Special Teams // Jul 20, 2022 - 2:24pm

They're trying to answer the question Tua Be Or Not Tua Be.

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#38 by RickD // Jul 20, 2022 - 5:03pm

This where a Cary Grant gif should be.

 

https://youtu.be/ZuiV_enOSoM

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#28 by serutan // Jul 20, 2022 - 3:50pm

The Dolphins and Buccaneers joint practices are scheduled for August 10 and 11 at 10 a.m. Eastern. You will want to be glued to your Twitter feed and following every beat writer south of I-10 for those sessions.

 

   Never realized that there was that much interest in these teams in  San Diego and the southern halves of LA and Houston.

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#30 by young curmudgeon // Jul 20, 2022 - 4:00pm

erstwhile Miami Dolphins quarterback. "Erstwhle" means "former."  When I read the first sentence of this article, I wondered when I had missed news of the trade.

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#36 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jul 20, 2022 - 4:54pm

It's less concerning than "penultimate".

Let's settle on "sinister."

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#41 by KnotMe // Jul 20, 2022 - 6:13pm

erstwhile would be correct if Bridgewater wi.....ok, I can't even finish typing that as a joke. 

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#42 by MJK // Jul 20, 2022 - 6:17pm

And in surprising news, Mike Tanier reveals that he thinks Cole Strange was over drafted…

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#46 by BigRichie // Jul 20, 2022 - 10:09pm

I'd actually enjoy an analytical article on what constitutes 'over drafted'. If you know you like a guy way better than other teams do, it has to be way better than each one of the other 31 teams. If only 30, you risk losing the guy if you get cute.

Historically, how have 'over drafted' players performed? Shouldn't be tough to identify them. Then also break it down according to team/coach/etc.

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#48 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 10:55pm

There is an economics paper looking at the return on trades. Basically, teams way overvalue their ability to draft. It was from a number of years ago however. 

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#49 by theslothook // Jul 20, 2022 - 10:55pm

There is an economics paper looking at the return on trades. Basically, teams way overvalue their ability to draft. It was from a number of years ago however. 

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#52 by BigRichie // Jul 21, 2022 - 12:12am

As New points out below, it'd be easy after each draft to identify the most 'over drafted' or highest 'reaches'. So how have those players actually played in comparison to their like-drafted peers? Those drafted in the same place in previous years, or those drafted just below + just above, however you choose to structure it ahead of time.

It'd be work to figure that out, but very simple and obvious as to how to do so. Me, I got a day job. But I don't think Mike or any other professional writer/analyst ought to much castigate 'overdrafters' before assembling that assemble-able data.

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#53 by BigRichie // Jul 21, 2022 - 12:17am

Saying 'they could've traded down and still got Ralph' just doesn't hold water. All it takes is 1 of the other 31 teams to value Ralph highly like you do, then Ralph will be gone. And I see no way you could know that no one else has also seen in Ralph what you've seen.

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#57 by Pat // Jul 22, 2022 - 2:38pm

Not sure which one you're thinking of? The most recent one I saw (from '17, Band, Moya, Yacu) basically showed that for the top half of the first round the trade market was almost dead-on with projected performance.

They made the (now very common) conclusion that the trade market undervalues later round picks, but that's a much more complicated problem.

 

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#50 by ImNewAroundThe… // Jul 20, 2022 - 11:13pm

It's about admitting not knowing everything and generally going by consensus wisdom of the crowds. When Strange is picked in the first despite no major outlet ranking him higher than 50th (where their next pick was ironically) and overall 70th, the chances that you're right but everyone else is wrong is just probability. 

Last year the biggest reach was a LS who was more known for his funky Cheesman name rather than his numerous  accolades. Talking about the biggest non ST reach would be Nahshon Wright, who graded at 45.7 and also there's a reason you never heard of him. The second biggest reach, Loudermilk put up a 47.5, etc. 

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#51 by JoelBarlow // Jul 21, 2022 - 12:03am

it's pretty clear that no one knows anything and that all that matters is accumulating picks, never trading up, and just hoping you avoid a catastrophic mistake at QB. there is no system, there is no value in having 10000 scouts creating a board based on whatever insight you think you have

its frightening but its true 

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#54 by Aaron Brooks G… // Jul 21, 2022 - 9:04am

I think the eventual answer was that all teams are about the same at drafting as each other, which is why trading up usually didn't work -- all teams had converged to roughly the same answer.

\except Baltimore.

Points: 0

#58 by ImNewAroundThe… // Jul 22, 2022 - 4:54pm

No one said never trade up. It certainly can be worth it for a QB but it all depends on what's exactly being traded. No one should turned down a 1st for 2 7ths simply because it's more picks. 

But, no, scouts don't need to work more. It's not as complicated as teams make it seem. They just need to script accept risk

Points: 0

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