Ezekiel Elliott/Tony Pollard Prop Bet Blowout

Dallas Cowboys RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard
Dallas Cowboys RBs Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 1 - Attention, prop bet lovers: the house has officially given up trying to make sense of the Dallas Cowboys running back situation!

You can now wager for Ezekiel Elliott OR Tony Pollard to gain over 999.5 regular-season rushing yards with a +130 moneyline at DraftKings. Other sportsbooks have likely posted a similar prop; click around to tabs such as "Team Specials" to find the wacky/interesting stuff. (All lines as of midday on August 31.)

An either/or wager on a low yardage total is the ultimate sportsbook surrender. We want to post Zeke bets because he's famous, but we have no idea how these goofballs will handle their backfield, and neither do you, and especially neither do they. Here's a modest payout. Can we tempt you with Serena Williams +2200 to win the US Open?

You know the drill with Elliott and Pollard. Elliott is overpaid but very effective when not playing hurt, which is seldom. Pollard could start for most teams, but marginalizing a Jerry Jones favorite/budget loss leader is a great way for a Cowboys head coach to guarantee getting dumped for Sean Payton. Mike McCarthy and coordinator Kellen Moore often claim they plan to get Zeke and Pollard on the field at the same time, but it rarely happens: the Cowboys used 21 personnel on just 2% of offensive snaps in 2021, per Football Outsiders Almanac. Remember, this is a team that drafted left tackle Tyler Smith in the first round but needed an entire week to figure out how to replace injured left tackle Tyron Smith. Every roster decision for this franchise is like a sobriety test on Harry Hines Boulevard, and the Cowboys rarely pass. (Those who caught the early, non-edited version of the last sentence will note that Walkthrough also failed). 

All that said, Walkthrough endorses this wager. It's like being able to draft Elliott and Pollard in the same fantasy round and then start them both in the same slot each week! The 1,000-yard threshold equates to 58.2 yards per game across a 17-game season; the Cowboys don't need to settle on a logical carry rotation for either Zeke or Pollard to beat that. Place that prop bet and you win if:

  • The Cowboys passing game is so great that it creates easy yardage and mop-up opportunities for both backs;
  • The Cowboys passing game is so depleted and dreadful that it forces McCarthy and Moore to force-feed both backs;
  • Either Elliott or Pollard tweaks a hammy, leaving the other to be the bellcow for about a month;
  • Jerrah demands 25 touches per game for Elliott on his weekly radio show.

To get a sense of just how low the 1,000-yard Elliott-Pollard threshold is: in Denver Broncos country, the house is offering Javonte Williams OR Melvin Gordon to gain over 1,249.5 rushing yards at +300. The payout appears tempting, but the 1,250-yard benchmark (73.5 yards per game) is dangerously high. Place that wager and you're betting on Williams to flat-out win the featured role from Gordon (whom coaches adore) AND there being enough touches to go around in a Russell Wilson-led offense. The Pollard-Elliott wager, by contrast, pays off if the Cowboys do exactly what they did in 2021 and have done in so many seasons past: noodle around, get along on pure talent, and look better in the stat sheet than they do on the field when January arrives.

Let's explore some other fascinating prop bets Walkthrough stumbled across over the last week so. Even non-bettors can learn a thing or two from what the house thinks (or wants the public to think) is going to happen in 2022:

Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, and Big Passing Games

There are several bets on the board that pay out if superstar quarterbacks have a couple of high-yardage passing games in 2022:

  • Russell Wilson to have over 349.5 passing yards in at least three regular-season games at +105.
  • Aaron Rodgers to have over 349.5 passing yards in at least two regular-season games at +120.
  • Matthew Stafford to have over 399.5 passing yards in at least two regular-season games at +200.
  • Patrick Mahomes to have over 399.5 passing yards in at least two regular-season games at +140.

There are similar bets for the likes of Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins, but life is too short to place prop bets on the likes of Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins. Anyway, here's some data to help you make sense of the wagers above:

  • Wilson did not throw for over 350 yards in any game last year. He crossed that mark three times in 2020 and twice in 2019.
  • Rodgers only crossed the 350-yard mark once in 2021, once in 2020, and twice in 2019.
  • Stafford reached the 400-yard benchmark once in 2020 and once in 2019. He did not reach it at all during the Rams' 2021 Super Bowl run.
  • Mahomes has thrown for 400-plus yards twice each in the 2019, 2020, and 2021 seasons.

There have been a total of 135 games in which a quarterback passed for 350-plus yards in the regular season since 2019. Contrary to what you might guess, they were not mostly losses: the quarterback's teams went 84-50-1 in those games. A 350-plus-yard passing game is most likely to be a shootout, as a scan of the games on the list reveals.

There have been 47 games in which a quarterback passed for 400-plus yards in the regular season since 2019. Dak Prescott leads the category with seven of them; there's no relevant prop bet for Prescott on the board.

To summarize: these 350- or 400-passing yard wagers are all about prolific quarterbacks getting into shootouts. That's why you get a better payout on Rodgers cracking 350 yards twice than Wilson doing so three times: all that Wilson-versus-Mahomes, Wilson-versus-Justin Herbert fun is priced straight into the wager, as is the likelihood that Rodgers will spend many fourth quarters handing off against the Lions and Bears.

With that in mind, Walkthrough is leaning toward the Mahomes prop. The house may be banking on the public overreacting to Tyreek Hill's departure. Mahomes is still going to throw a zillion passes; he still has capable receivers, a great line, and Andy Reid; and he's still Mahomes. Mahomes also produced 443- and 374-yard passing games during Tyreek's four-game absence in 2019. (He also threw for 378 yards in the season opener, when Hill was hurt near the start of the game.) And finally, it's fun to just watch Chiefs games and root for mayhem.

Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, and 500-Yard Passing Games

Walkthrough loves a good fire-and-forget preseason prop that involves a player or team doing something just once in an entire season: drop a few bucks on a glorified lottery ticket in August, click "place bet," then enjoy 17 opportunities for it to pay out. From an entertainment perspective, such props provide outstanding return on investment. Turning ten bucks into $100 is fantastic; turning ten bucks into a Thursday night game in November where you are wide awake at midnight cheering for dump-off passes in a blowout so the quarterback can crack some prop-bet milestone is a fine consolation prize.

Joe Burrow is currently getting +900 to throw for at least 500 yards in any regular season game. Justin Herbert is getting +700 for the same achievement. We were unable to find similar props for Mahomes/Josh Allen types, perhaps because the action would probably be down around +300 to keep the house from losing its shirt, and no one is interested in a payout like that on a prop like this.

As you probably suspect, 500-yard passing games are very rare. Burrow produced the only such game in the whole NFL in 2021, throwing for 525 yards against the Ravens in December. Prescott recorded a 502-yard passing game in 2020. Jared Goff threw for 517 yards (two touchdowns, three interceptions, one fumble) in a 55-40 loss to the Buccaneers in 2019. Ben Roethlisberger produced three 500-yard passing games in his career, the all-time record. Tom Brady produced just one, Peyton Manning zero. It's an almost random accomplishment.

Still, Walkthrough loves this prop, particularly for Burrow at a higher payout. The Bengals face the Bills on Monday Night Football in Week 17. Imagine ringing in 2023 with a Burrow-versus-Allen duel into the night with both playoff seedings and +900 on the line if everything goes totally kittens! It's a little gift you can give to your future self.

Jonathan Taylor and Derrick Henry Rushing Props

If you enjoy running back prop bets, have you considered, say, fantasy football instead? Seriously, fantasy is the place to satisfy your jones for running back bulk stats, especially with outlets such as Underdog Fantasy providing weekly DFS/best ball options. (Sponsored sentence! Use the promo code OUTSIDERS to double your deposit up to $100!) Sure, Walkthrough kicked off with a rushing prop this week, but the Zeke-Pollard bet is the opposite of the type of tricky decision you are forced to make playing fantasy football.

Anyway, here's a brief sampler platter of what the house is offering for some of the NFL's most prolific rushers:

  • Jonathan Taylor to gain over 149.5 rushing yards in at least three regular-season games at +225.
  • Jonathan Taylor over 1999.5 regular-season rushing yards at +1600.
  • Derrick Henry OVER 1300.5 regular-season rushing yards AND OVER 330.5 regular-season receiving yards at +250.
  • Derrick Henry to break the single season rushing record (over 2105.5 Yards) at +2000.

The Henry rushing record prop exists simply to keep Titans fans from reenacting The Purge: no Football Outsiders reader would ever fall for such schmuckbait. The 2,000-yard Taylor prop is a bad bet for the opposite reason: creaky Henry won't sniff 2,000 yards while slamming into nine-man boxes, but Taylor's carries will be nerfed by Matt Ryan and general Colts offensive competence.

The modest Henry 1,300-yard over is tempered by the receiving-yard threshold. Henry has never caught over 19 passes in a season, and his career high in receiving yardage is 206. It's easy to imagine Henry thumping out 1,350 yards on 18-carry, 79-yard afternoons, but much harder to picture him suddenly becoming a focal point of the Titans passing game; even if they start force-feeding him dump-offs, he could end up with 50 catches for 300 yards against defenses with no one else to worry about.

That leaves Taylor and his 150-yard games. Taylor has already cracked that figure five times in two seasons, with 145- and 143-yard games to boot. Two of Taylor's 150-plu- yard games came on 20 and 19 carries. If Taylor reaches the 150-yard threshold, at least one breakaway run is usually involved, which means he can win this wager without getting worked like a rented stump grinder.

Walkthrough would love the Taylor wager in the +350 range. As it stands, it may be of interest to Colts fans for folks who picked too late to grab Taylor in their fantasy drafts.

George Kittle, Chris Olave, and an All-Around Prop-a-palooza

Let's wrap this prop bet tour up with some veteran tight ends, rookie receivers, and attempts to separate overexcited homer fans from their money:

  • Christian Watson and Allen Lazard OVER 1499.5 combined regular-season receiving yards at +160.

    If you have been drinking the Packers rookie receiver ayahuasca tea, you probably have the munchies right now, and this wager is your family-sized bag of Doritos. The worst part of this wager is the +160 payout. In an ideal world where Lazard achieves peak Marquez Valdes-Scantling (690 yards) and Watson grabs two-thirds of Davante Adams' peak receiving total (1,035 yards), the Packers rookies could blast past the 1,500-yard barrier. But that sounds like at least a +500 prop to anyone who has noticed little details such as Doubs' drops, Watson's injuries, and Aaron Rodgers' mounting surliness.

    Also, if you decide to drink ayahuasca and eat Doritos, please have an emergency plumber on standby.

  • George Kittle to have the most tight end receiving yards in NFC conference at +300.

    Tempting, right? But this wager is the Atlanta Falcons' entry music. We're not here to win anything for ourselves. We're just here to ruin things for everyone else. And here's the star of our show: Kyle Pitts!

    The house won't even list Pitts props right now. Consider that a warning.

  • Houston Texans to earn a wild-card seed AND Dameon Pierce over 400.5 regular-season rushing yards +7500.

    Not today, Satan! Walkthrough sees you luring us astray with our binkie Three Pitbulls Pierce—who just earned the Texans RB1 role with the release of Marlon Mack—and a gaudy payout. The Texans are +1600 to make the playoffs by themselves. And the way this prop is worded, you lose in the unlikely event that the Texans somehow win the division! Misleading fine print? That's as Faustian as a bargain can get!

  • Any Texans player to gain over 999.5 regular-season rush yards at +700.

    This wager, on the other hand, is too good for Pierce stans to pass up. Remember that 1,000 yards works out to just 58.2 yards per game. Pierce can rotate with Rex Burkhead and easily eclipse that figure on a team with a paint-by-numbers offense but acceptable talent at most positions. And if Pierce flames out (he won't), Burkhead could win this prop with bulk usage. Plus, it provides a reason to pay any attention whatsoever to the Texans, and the Texans need one.

    Unfortunately, this prop was OFF the board late on Wednesday afternoon when we were editing/actually placing some bets. The house was behind the public on the Pierce/Mack/Burkhead situation before cutdowns, to the point that they were offering +700 on what they assumed would be a committee backfield. The moral of the story: there's market inefficiency in these "specials" props, but you gotta act fast. And Walkthrough's gonna place the darn bets while writing initial drafts from now on.

  • Chris Olave to have the most rookie receiving yards AND New Orleans Saints to be a wild-card seed, +1400.

    This prop might as well read: "Michael Thomas to turn minor injury into year-long melodrama: +1400." And frankly, -1400 might be better odds on that. George Pickens and Aaron Rodgers' chamberpot-bearers aside, Olave becomes the odds-on favorite to lead all rookies in receiving yards if Thomas glitches again. And while we hate the pesky "wild card" legalese, the Saints can't win the NFC South without Thomas, though they could still earn a playoff berth based on defense and Falcons/Panthers putrescence.

    Walkthrough will wait until next week to determine if this prop is still available, the payout has changed, and Thomas has been seen anywhere near greater New Orleans.

  • Tyreek Hill OR Jaylen Waddle to have over 1249.5 regular-season receiving yards at +170.

    Another "either-or" bet, this one based upon the house's effort to thread the Tua Tagovailoa needle. Tyreek gained 1,239 receiving yards last year, Waddle 1,015, and there's a risk that they will cannibalize each other if Tua succeeds or get trapped averaging 6.3 yards per catch if he doesn't. Waddle's nobody's-talking-about-it injury adds an unwanted extra level of intrigue.

    Walkthrough believes Tyreek will get over 15 targets per game on shovel passes, RPOs, slot screens, and other tomfartery, and we're also vaguely Tua-optimistic, so we like this prop.

  • Philadelphia Eagles to score the most regular-season points in the NFC East division at +175.

    The Giants will be lucky to avoid a shutout most weeks. The Commanders are gearing up for another year of weekly 17-15 final scores. So that leaves the Eagles battling with the Cowboys, who have Jalen Tolbert as their WR2 and a human holding penalty as their likely starting left tackle to start the year.

    The Eagles and Cowboys were knotted at +150 to win the NFC East at press time (Cowboys lines are very much on the move), so this prop provides a little extra juice. The issue, however, is that the Cowboys love to drop 40 points on pipsqueak opponents; their starters scored 51 points on the Eagles backups in Week 18 last year, for example, and 56 against a ready-to-surrender Washington team a few weeks earlier. Throw in climate-controlled Jerry World versus Philly in December and January, and we're steering clear of this one: the same factors that make the Zeke/Pollard prop interesting make this one worrisome.

  • Seattle Seahawks to win all home games +30000

    We wrap with an example of a prop bet that looks like fun but isn't. Taking a 300-to-1 ticket on the 12th Man sounds tempting, but this wager amounts to betting against Russell Wilson in Week 1. Perhaps you are revenge-minded enough to want that action. But are you interested in a season-long prop likely to get sunk by halftime of the first Monday Night Football game? Props where a player or team has all season to achieve one or two goals provide weeks of entertainment. Props that require a team to be perfect are like amusement park rides that only go around once. And betting on a team with Geno Smith and Drew Lock at quarterback to be "perfect" is simply bananapants.

  • Serena Williams to win the US Open +2200.

    Walkthrough placed this bet on Wednesday. If Tom Brady has taught us anything, it's never to doubt a GOAT taking a victory lap. Especially with a payout like that.

Around the League: Jimmy Garoppolo, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and More

News and notes from cutdown week.

San Francisco 49ers restructure Jimmy Garoppolo's contract.

There's no quarterback trade aftermarket this season, and retaining Garoppolo as a premium backup (at a reduced salary) makes far more sense than outright releasing him.

As for the DRAMA, if the presence of Garoppolo, who was excused from training camp and keeps getting sandbagged by Shanahan-scented rumors of mutual ambivalence, is too much pressure for Trey Lance to handle, then the NFL itself is too much pressure for Lance to handle.

Philadelphia Eagles acquire Chauncey Gardner-Johnson from the New Orleans Saints.

The Eagles get a talented, ornery young nickel defender. The Saints lose a talented, ornery young nickel defender because there are too many thirtysomething defenders, running backs, and faux quarterbacks on the payroll through 2024 for them to offer market-value contract extensions.

Carolina Panthers acquire Laviska Shenault from the Jacksonville Jaguars.

If a ball-in-space playmaker is averaging 10.1 yards per catch as a role player through two seasons, with minimal rushing and return-game value, then he may not be the playmaker he's touted to be. Perhaps Doug Marrone and Urban Meyer didn't know how to use Shenault, but Matt Rhule's chances aren't so hot, either, and it's telling that Doug Pederson didn't care to be bothered.

Minnesota Vikings release Kellen Mond, who is claimed by the Cleveland Browns.

I wrote about Mond and the "roster bubble" two weeks ago but waffled about the actual bubble, assuming the new regime would be extra-cautious with even a D-tier quarterback prospect. It looks like the new Vikings brass really does want to cut bait on the Rick Spielman roster. They're just starting with the easier, less cost-prohibitive decisions. The Browns are most likely renting Mond's services for the next 11 weeks.

If there's a moral to the Mond saga, it's Beware The Connoisseur-Contrarian Quarterback Prospect. Real prospects are easy to spot on Saturday afternoons. Even Malik Willis/Trey Lance types from smaller programs reach the public radar long before the draft process starts. And a late-blooming Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, or Dak Prescott is bound to be the talk of the Senior Bowl. When a Mond, Clayton Thorson, or Tom Savage suddenly enters the chat in mid-March, it's the work of a draftnik trying to make their bones with a big score, or an agent earning their commission, or a low-level scout on his seventh gin-and-tonic at Prime 33 bending the ear of sportswriters (on our eighth) fawning over him like he's Bill Parcells.

The bust rate for "can't miss" quarterbacks is great enough to take a chance on a guy you probably never even noticed during college football season.

Las Vegas Raiders release Alex Leatherwood, trade Trayvon Mullen to the Arizona Cardinals.

Last Gruden-era draft pick not named Maxx Crosby or Hunter Renfrow out the door, please turn off the lights. The Bears claimed Leatherwood off waivers and will attempt an Erick Flowers-style rehabilitation. They have had worse ideas.

Buffalo Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White to miss at least four games.

The Bills open with the Rams, Titans, Dolphins, and Ravens. Cornerbacks aren't really necessary when facing the Titans or Ravens. But no White to face Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill? A 2-2 start will leave the Bills vulnerable to playoff-seeding tiebreakers, especially if a Dolphins or Ravens loss is in the mix. Heavy is the head wearing the "prohibitive Super Bowl favorite" crown.

Detroit Lions release both Tim Boyle and David Blough, sign Nate Sudfeld.

It's slowly dawning on Dan Campbell stans that the Lions have now spent two seasons purposely avoiding the search for a quarterback of the future. They could have Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, or even a Sam Howell/Skylar Thompson type stashed behind Jared Goff right now, but instead opted to stage a hopeless competition between non-prospects. This is what mediocre regimes do to reduce expectations, lengthen rebuilds, and increase their job security without accomplishing anything. But hey: catchphrases!

Baltimore Ravens sign Kenyan Drake.

J.K. Dobbins' early availability remains a mystery. Gus Edwards will start the season on the PUP list. Rookie Tyler Badie didn't show much in preseason and got released. It could be another Forgotten Veteran Committee Back of the Week season in Baltimore.

Green Bay Packers activate Mason Crosby off PUP list.

The 38-year-old Crosby needed knee surgery after going 9-of-13 on field goals of 30 to 39 yards last season. No way this turns into a problem for a Super Bowl contender that plays in the Arctic.

Andre Dillard makes Philadelphia Eagles 53-man roster.

Why didn't Howie Roseman trade his backup left tackle after watching the Cowboys lose Tyron Smith and the Saints lose Trevor Penning? Oops, we answered our own question.

Philadelphia Eagles trade Jalen Reagor to Minnesota Vikings.

Reagor is a perfect system fit for a team that never uses its third receiver.


28 comments, Last at 06 Sep 2022, 8:42am

#1 by Aaron Brooks G… // Sep 01, 2022 - 9:50am

As for the DRAMA, if the presence of Garoppolo, who was excused from training camp and keeps getting sandbagged by Shanahan-scented rumors of mutual ambivalence, is too much pressure for Trey Lance to handle, then the NFL itself is too much pressure for Lance to handle.

You say that like there's some precedent for ND State QBs to not well-handle job pressure.

It's slowly dawning on Dan Campbell stans that the Lions have now spent two seasons purposely avoiding the search for a quarterback of the future. They could have Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, or even a Sam Howell/Skylar Thompson type stashed behind Jared Goff right now, but instead opted to stage a hopeless competition between non-prospects. This is what mediocre regimes do to reduce expectations, lengthen rebuilds, and increase their job security without accomplishing anything. But hey: catchphrases!

This is almost completely wrong. You can't port Eagles fandom to the Lions -- the teams and their fanbases are completely different.

The Eagles have an angry, reactionary, spastic fanbase, an urgent need to win soonish, and a reputation for churning back-roster froth into decent team results in backup QB games because the rest of their roster is pretty great. This is in part because their division is a revolving door of "either the Giants or Cowboys will be above .500 this year, but will still be headcases." 

The Lions... do not. Really, Detroit is looking to not suck soonish, knows they ain't winning shit without a top-10 QB season (and that may not be enough). This is because the rest of their roster is basically a burning vomit fire with the occasional HoFer chained to the rocks for a raptor to tear their liver out on the daily. Also, because their division will feature one great team (usually the Packers; sometimes the Bears or Vikings) and one really good one (usually the Bears or Vikings), with only the Bears really being headcases. The Lions, aside from a few brief departures, have been rebuilding since the early 1970s.

(Consider that a large chunk of Lions' fandom switched to the Rams along with Stafford; they know where the real problem is)

Goff is a thermometer. He tells you how good your roster is. Last year he was in the low-20s, which is probably about right for the offense as a whole. (Although they have sucked at running for 30 years, and really in any season they didn't have a healthy Billy Sims or Barry Sanders going back to the 1950s)

The point here is that stashing a low round guy who might be a serviceable backup or a sub-par starter is completely useless to the Lions, because the rest of their roster has so many holes that if you're on Plan B, your season is already lost. So don't worry about Plan B.

Campbell's actions make sense. The Former Patriot Braintrusts completely cleaned the cupboards of talent aside from a few offensive linemen. If you want a model for where the Lions are, look at Schwartz, who also took over a demoralized, talentless team drifting at the end of their joke of a former coach's reign. Like Campbell, Schwartz was all-aggro all the time, but who also gave the team an identity (any identity!) and patched low-quality with high-effort and a mean streak. Ultimately, this gave way to hiring Caldwell to be an adult once the shtick wore off. (The Lions sort of did this with Rogers->Fontes->Ross, but switched away from Fontes too late.) Schwartz started with more and it took him a few years to change the team's trajectory.

(As for Willis and Howell -- oh no, I remember the Peetes and Wares and Frerottes too well to trust back-roster high-variance athletic QBs with shotgun arms.)

Points: 0

#15 by Joey-Harringto… // Sep 01, 2022 - 1:19pm

It basically boils down to the fact that Brad Holmes loves him some Jared Goff, and is convinced he can succeed again, even without McVay.

Points: 0

#23 by Kaepernicus // Sep 02, 2022 - 4:39pm

Another thing to note here is how good of a fit Sudfeld is for the team if Goff goes down. Suds is literally the dollar general knock-off Goff. If you gave them the same jersey number no-one would realize it for a couple drives until Suds throws some terrible interception and you realize he is taller. 

Points: 0

#2 by ChrisLong // Sep 01, 2022 - 10:24am

It's slowly dawning on Dan Campbell stans that the Lions have now spent two seasons purposely avoiding the search for a quarterback of the future. They could have Malik Willis, Desmond Ridder, or even a Sam Howell/Skylar Thompson type stashed behind Jared Goff right now, but instead opted to stage a hopeless competition between non-prospects. 

One could argue that all of those guys are also non-prospects.

The 38-year-old Crosby needed knee surgery after going 9-of-13 on field goals of 30 to 39 yards last season. No way this turns into a problem for a Super Bowl contender that plays in the Arctic.

I genuinely don't understand why GB has kept Crosby around for so long. He's average and getting worse, but they're paying him 4.3 million per year to do so. Young kickers on a minimum salary who were good in college surely are a better value than an average veteran. What's the expected ROI on a "good" kicker vs an average one? I just don't get this strategy, but many teams employ it.

Points: 0

#3 by ImNewAroundThe… // Sep 01, 2022 - 10:53am

Preferring to give David Blough AND Tim Boyle guaranteed money over them sure makes for an insane convo.

Paying ST sucks because once teams do, rarely do they ever actually challenge them in any meaningful way because there's one skill and roster spot they're competing for.

Points: 0

#6 by ChrisLong // Sep 01, 2022 - 11:46am

Both of those guys are better right now than any of the rookie types mentioned above and are on one year deals (so less guaranteed overall and not committed to the idea of development long-term). I just think it's silly to decry the quality of the QBs available for the Lions to pick from in the 2021-2022 draft articles and then also blame them for not taking one just to take one.

Points: 0

#7 by ChrisLong // Sep 01, 2022 - 11:49am

I realize now that they didn't keep them on the roster. Obviously not great. But I still just feel it's hypocritical to hate on the 2021-22 QB classes out of one side of your mouth and hate on the Lions for not having one of them out of the other.

Points: 0

#8 by ImNewAroundThe… // Sep 01, 2022 - 11:52am


It's funny actually because all those guys made their respective 53 man rosters. While Blough and Boyle lost to NATE "0 starts" SUDFELD. But yes I'm sure Detroit runs some advanced scheme that would've had the rookies crying compared to those two knowledgeable studs...that were cut for a guy that doesn't know the system...oh. Looks like both suck and have no upside. Surprise surprise. 

Yeah relatively the class wasn't good to prior ones but you gave guarantees to TIM BOYLE AND DAVID BLOUGH. While JARED GOFF is your starter (without McVay). 

Points: 0

#9 by ImNewAroundThe… // Sep 01, 2022 - 11:53am


At the end of the day, take a shot. QB room maybe slightly better than Seattle. No clue where Blough and Boyle got their leverage to exhort guarantees. Should've copied TN: min. vet QB as a filler, then draft one. No one said you had to pick one at #2 but you finished with 8 picks. Not a single one of them could've gone to the most important position when you (should) know Goff isn't the long term answer? 

Points: 0

#10 by colonialbob // Sep 01, 2022 - 12:01pm

As somebody who once turned David Blough into a national championship quarterback in NCAA Football, and also knows that Kirk Cousins is exactly the same as Russell Wilson ;), it is indeed silly to say Ridder/Willis are on the same level. If nothing else, they're unknown quantities who might be something, while Blough and Boyle are almost certainly not going to be anything.

Points: 0

#12 by ImNewAroundThe… // Sep 01, 2022 - 12:26pm

Yeah... well put. 

Like you couldn't tell one of em to sign for the min. Then took a swing on Skylar Thompson instead of James Houston, who's already cut?

Points: 0

#14 by Joey-Harringto… // Sep 01, 2022 - 1:17pm

Yea agree with this.  Brad Holmes has done a mostly decent job so far with drafting and free agency, but he seems to have some weird blind spot with quarterbacks (see my above post re: his Goff man crush).  Even without the benefit of hindsight, I would have preferred Ridder instead of some interior pass rusher who will start the year on PUP. 

With Boyle, especially (who was demonstrably bad in 3 starts last year), giving him nearly 2 million in guaranteed money is totally indefensible.

Points: 0

#27 by bobrulz // Sep 05, 2022 - 6:36pm

Because Crosby hasn't actually been that bad? Aside from last year (when he may have been kicking through an injury) and 2017, Crosby has been fine. Even in 2018, when he only kicked 81%, he was still 5/7 from 50+ yards, which is impressive. And he was over 90% in 2019 and 2020. If he's bad again this year, then yes, maybe that would show it's time to move on.

People think kickers aren't worth paying until you get a bad one. Paying $4 million or so for a relatively proven commodity is not a bad investment. Nobody thinks about the kicking game until it becomes a disaster (look at the Chargers), or if you have Justin Tucker (the one kicker I think we all agree is worth paying out for). I think if you don't properly value the kicking position, it can often come back to bite you.

Points: 0

#28 by ImNewAroundThe… // Sep 06, 2022 - 8:39am

Crosby was mid. GB is just afraid to move on from the champ because they think no one else can kick outdoors in winter (turns out that unless 11 other guys get him in range, it doesnt matter, hmmm 🤔)

But can anyone name the Rams K without looking it up? Hint: was a street free agent very early in his career. 

Points: 0

#4 by Romodini // Sep 01, 2022 - 11:42am

Never heard of this Tyson Smith guy... does he bite opposing pass rushers' ears off instead of holding them if they get the best of him, or does he swing helmets around like an oversized 5 year old when he's beat? Oh wait, that's already been patented by Aaron Donald.

Points: 0

#5 by fynsta // Sep 01, 2022 - 11:43am


Christian Watson and Allen Lazard OVER 1499.5 combined regular-season receiving yards at +160.

But in the paragraph you write "the Packers rookies could blast past the 1,500-yard barrier" and mention Doubs' drops. Since when is Lazard a rookie?


I feel like something is amiss here.

Points: 0

#11 by colonialbob // Sep 01, 2022 - 12:04pm

Philadelphia Eagles trade Jalen Reagor to Minnesota Vikings.

Reagor is a perfect system fit for a team that never uses its third receiver.

I was set off by the Cowboys shade but then you say something like this and totally redeem yourself.

Points: 0

#13 by HitchikersPie // Sep 01, 2022 - 1:09pm

Ben Roethlisberger produced three 500-yard passing games in his career, the all-time record. Tom Brady produced just one, Peyton Manning zero. It's an almost random accomplishment.

This feat certainly eluded Peyton throughout his career, but Brady notched another 500 yard game losing to your eagles in SB LII (also set a SB DYAR record <citation needed>).

Further Roethlisberger bagged a 4th in his 68 pass monstrosity as the Browns forever removed the sting of playoff heartbreak with future franchise lynchpin Baker Mayfield at the helm.

Points: 0

#16 by Drivster // Sep 01, 2022 - 1:44pm

Also Vince Ferragamo and Elvis Grbac in the 500 yard club.  500 yard guys are 14-12 all time.  I don't think the "almost" is needed in "almost random".

600 is cool though, but to get that you've got to go to my long departed hometown club.


600 yard guys are a perfect 1-0


Points: 0

#18 by KnotMe // Sep 01, 2022 - 6:06pm

I bet what really gets Peyton is that his brother did it.

Points: 0

#25 by BJR // Sep 04, 2022 - 9:23am

Ah yes, the NFL's bizarre insistence on entirely separating regular season and playoffs for statistical purposes, as though they are different sports. 

Super Bowl LII set the record (at the time, it may have been surpassed) for combined offensive yardage in a single game, but I saw absolutely no mention of it anywhere at the time, or since. Bizarre. 

Points: 0

#17 by serutan // Sep 01, 2022 - 2:32pm

Serena Williams to win the US Open +2200.

Walkthrough placed this bet on Wednesday. 

Very wise.  After last night that particular bet is almost certainly well below +2200 now.  I respect her more than I like her, but fairytale endings are cool and I'm all for it.

Points: 0

#24 by LionInAZ // Sep 02, 2022 - 10:56pm

Considering you've probably never met Serena Williams in person to honestly convey like or dislike, I'd guess she would prefer your respect.

Points: 0

#19 by LIKEDTHEBOOK0 // Sep 01, 2022 - 9:49pm

There is no sportswriter I enjoy reading more. You are funny, smart and interesting. But you need a copy-editor -- or, at least, to proof your writing more carefully. I notice this repeatedly. It's Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, not Gardner-Thompson. Also, you misspelled it's.

Points: 0

#20 by Raiderfan // Sep 01, 2022 - 9:56pm

Maybe there are no odds for them, but I would think the two best bets would be Carr and Brady.  Carr passed for 4500+yards last year,  is in a division where there will be shoot outs every week, and has the best WR, best slot receiver and second best tight end in the division. Probably the best set in football.  But since it is the Raiders, you could probably get good odds.

Brady led the league in yards, and has ten 350+ games on your list.  But since he is 45, you could probably get good odds for him, too.

Points: 0

#21 by KnotMe // Sep 02, 2022 - 9:25am

Isn't the most likely case for the Cowboys RB prop that Zeke is hurt enough to not reach 1000 but not hurt enough to give pollard enough touches to reach 1k?

Points: 0

#22 by dryheat // Sep 02, 2022 - 11:13am

That approaches 1:1 so closely that I doubt Vegas would give you odds.

Points: 0

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