The Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes Cinematic Universe
NFL Week 6 - In the NFL Week 6 edition of Walkthrough...
- The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs smash their Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes action figures together.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense merc's the Cooper Rush/Dak Prescott controversy once and for all.
- The Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and Los Angeles Rams figure out (some of) their offensive problems.
And much more.
But first...
The 5-1 New York Giants and the Glory of Autumn Sundays
Lamar Jackson retrieved an errant snap, scrambled for dear life, and heaved an ill-advised pass across his body. New York Giants safety Julian Love intercepted that pass and returned it deep into Ravens territory.
Dalvin Cook sliced through some would-be tacklers near the line of scrimmage and raced 53 yards for a Minnesota Vikings touchdown just moments after Jaylen Waddle fumbled at the end of a 14-yard completion on second-and-14 for the Miami Dolphins.
Joe Burrow connected with Ja'Marr Chase for a 60-yard catch-and-run touchdown to give the Cincinnati Bengals their first lead of the game late in the fourth quarter against the New Orleans Saints.
Those three plays occurred nearly simultaneously at roughly 3:45 p.m. Eastern time. If you were lucky enough to watch all three on three different televisions, you felt both a giddy rush of football endorphins and the vertiginous whoosh of the NFL season rounding a sudden bend.
The Love interception set up the touchdown that lifted the Giants to 5-1 with a 24-20 victory over the Ravens. The Waddle fumble and Cook touchdown ended a potential Dolphins rally and lifted the Vikings to 5-1 with a 24-16 win. The Chase touchdown lifted the Bengals to 3-3 and placed the injury-ravaged Saints on life support.
Meanwhile, Mitch Trubisky—yes, Mitch Trubisky—was manufacturing an upset against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a whole lotta help from his defense and special teams (and the ever-growing Buccaneers injury report.) The Atlanta Falcons were hoodwinking a banged-up version of the vaunted San Francisco 49ers defense with their smoke-and-mirrors offense. And the Jets were outsmarting and outhustling the Green Bay Packers, establishing a pattern for each team that's encouraging for one and deeply troubling for another.
Those three simultaneous game-changing plays by Jackson/Love, Cook, and Burrow-to-Chase illustrate everything that's captivating about a full slate of Sunday afternoon NFL action. It's not just that anything can happen, but that three "anythings" can happen in a heartbeat while several other "anythings" wait their turn.
There's glory in the NFL's chaos, and no team typifies it quite like the 2022 Giants. For a second straight week, they upset a nominal contender by exploiting that opponent's two worst habits: expecting their quarterback to do all the work and letting opponents linger in their rearview mirror. The Giants block well, tackle well, play within themselves, take what the defense gives them, force field goals, and find ways to win weekly tortoise-versus-hare track meets.
The Jets, like the Giants, find creative ways to generate points, force opponents to out-execute them 11-on-11 in all three phases, and punish the ones that don't. Ditto the Falcons, who are like the Giants-lite, with an exotic-smashmouth offense and a shatterproof-glass defense. The Falcons, like the Giants and Jets, also seem to be enjoying the ride.
And the dreary Vikings? They enter their bye having won all the games they were supposed to win, plus the Packers upset. Yes, they still look like the same old Kirk Cousins Vikings. But that could play to their benefit in an NFC where the Bucs and Packers don't look very much like the same old Bucs and Packers.
"You are what your record says you are," Bill Parcells once said. In mid-September, that statement can be misleading. But by mid-October it rings true. The Giants and Vikings are playoff teams because their records all but guarantee it. The Buccaneers and Packers are digging holes that their Hall of Fame quarterbacks might not be able to dig/throw/tantrum their way out of, as are the fourth-quarter disaster-artist Ravens. And the Bengals, Jets, and Falcons remain very much alive and delightfully unpredictable.
Weak teams have always ridden soft schedules and narrow wins into the playoffs. Strong teams have always blundered their way into lost seasons. That's the beauty of the NFL. And for one moment just before 4 p.m., that beauty was in incandescent bloom all across the nation.
Game Spotlight: Buffalo Bills 24, Kansas City Chiefs 20
What Happened: There comes a point in many superhero epics where the good guy and bad guy just stand there and shoot their mighty light beams at each other.
You know the scene: hero and villain unleash their different-colored cosmic-powered special effects, which collide halfway between them in a roiling explosion. Both parties grunt and grimace in search of more power, but neither power ray overwhelms the other. If you watch a lot of superhero/anime movies and cartoons, you probably yawn through the beam-on-beam battle: you know that hero and villain are equally powerful, and you have seen the light show before. (In anime, it's probably recycled animation.) You just want to see how the conflict gets resolved so you can move on to the next chapter of the saga.
That's what the Bills-Chiefs game was like. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes held back none of their optic blasts or omega rays. But the Chiefs and Bills kept driving into each other's territory and making mistakes: a fumble on a silly pitch play, an end zone interception, some fourth-down stops, a missed field goal, etc. There was plenty of spectacle, but we have seen it all executed a little better in earlier installments of the trilogy.
Allen finally blew the CGI budget on the final Bills touchdown drive, going full Kryptonian on a 16-yard rumble before firing a 14-yard guided touchdown missile to Dawson Knox. Mahomes tried to snap his fingers and undo reality but discovered that Bills defender Taron Johnson had intercepted the Infinity Gauntlet.
Elated? Mildly disappointed? Either way: the studio plans to release another sequel in late January.
What it Means: The Bills are the best team in the NFL. The Chiefs are the second-best team in the AFC. That's the problem with long-running superhero franchises: they rarely break any new ground.
What's Next: The Chiefs and 49ers each try to bounce back from tough Week 6 losses in a Super Bowl LIV rematch. The Bills will spend the bye week in their arctic Fortress of Solitude (Buffalo).
Game Spotlight: Philadelphia Eagles 26, Dallas Cowboys 17
What Happened: The Eagles dominated on offense and defense for the first 25 minutes, racking up 20 points while Connor Rush threw a pair of interceptions for a first-half NFL passer rating of 1.0.
The Cowboys scored a field goal after a long kickoff return before halftime, then took over the third quarter with typically stellar play by their front four and long, balanced touchdown drives on offense.
The Eagles reasserted control with a 75-yard fourth-quarter touchdown drive, capped by a Jalen Hurts rollout touchdown to DeVonta Smith (the Cowboys had no answer to the play-action rollout toss all night), followed by C.J. Gardner-Johnson's second interception of the evening to put the game out of reach.
What it Means: The shambling B-movie horror villain known as the Cooper Rush/Dak Prescott Controversy was stabbed through the heart, beheaded, and tossed into the graveyard of misbegotten takes. Forced to play catchup against a quality defense, Rush was exposed as a softball pitcher reliant on a lead and favorable down-and-distance situations. Still, Rush and the Cowboys defense deserve credit for their 4-1 stretch in Dak's absence.
The Eagles remain the most balanced, complete team in the NFC. They have demonstrated over the last two weeks that they can overcome their late-game lulls and retake control of games. Their future schedule only gets easier. You'd better get on the bandwagon before you are forced to cling onto the roof.
What's Next: The Eagles and the Bills are both on a bye week? Lotta folks in Buffalo and Philly will be looking up February flights to Arizona on Wikipedia. Meanwhile, the Cowboys will spend the week deciding whether or not they really need Prescott to beat the Lions.
How to Mitigate an Offensive Crisis
Several teams entered Week 6 facing potential offensive crises. A few managed to curtail, prevent, or mitigate those crises. Others did not. Let's run things down.
New England Patriots
Offensive Crisis: Third-string quarterback, third-rate offensive coaches.
Solution: Great execution and bad opponents.
The Patriots may have some really bad ideas these days, but they still excel at exploiting the even worse ideas of their mismanaged opponents.
Last week, the Patriots rolled up a lead on Dan Campbell's too-tough-to-convert-fourth-down Lions and coasted through the second half. This week, they did almost the same thing, taking advantage of the pillow-fight tackling and gear-grinding offense of the Keebler Elves in a 38-15 win.
Yes, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge have done a surprising job developing unpredictable game plans for Bailey Zappe; the Patricia of the past would have skipped right to the excuse-making once a third-stringer was in the lineup, while the Giants version of Judge would have focused his creativity and energy on the fake-punt package. And yes, Zappe looks … poised. But the Patriots defense is still doing the bulk of the work by shutting opponents down so Zappe never has to force a third-down pass. And this Hunter Henry touchdown isn't the result of brilliant whiteboard work, but of defensive incompetence.
.@Hunter_Henry84 is WIDE OPEN for 6️⃣. #ForeverNE
📺: #NEvsCLE on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/pjHIv4VDX8 pic.twitter.com/VN5ul2pNDT— NFL (@NFL) October 16, 2022
Final Prognosis: The Patriots get to do this one more time against the Chicago Bears next week. They'll also get Mac Jones back soon. Walkthrough expected the Patriots to fall to the bottom of a very deep AFC wild-card chase group when Jones got hurt, yet here they are in the middle of the pack.
Indianapolis Colts
Offensive Crisis: Matt Ryan is an oak tree and running backs Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines are out.
Solution: Flags and Jags.
Ryan looked far sharper in the Colts' 34-27 victory over the Jaguars than he did at the start of the season, but a JUGS machine with a paper-plate face taped on it would look sharper than early-season Ryan did. The Colts moved the ball consistently on Sunday, and Ryan's game-winning teardrop to Alec Pierce was almost worth waiting over a month for, but they also benefited from:
- pass interference on third-and-8 to extend their first touchdown drive;
- roughing the passer on third-and-12 to extend their second;
- and pass interference to get them to the 10-yard line on the third.
The Jaguars also gave the Colts the ball near midfield on a muffed punt and allowed tons of YAC to third-string running back Deon Jackson. Opponents have figured out just how little talent and experience the Jags possess on defense.
Also, while it's debatable whether Jelani Woods should have been called for OPI on this touchdown (he looked like Davante Adams shoving a cameraman, but let's not go there), it's clear that Devin Lloyd won't be including this example of stout end zone coverage on his Defensive Rookie of the Year hype video:
"I'll take that, thanks!" -@jelani_thegreat#BudLightCelly | @BudLight | 📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/mDtuPpnzuj
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 16, 2022
Final Prognosis: Mediocrity may be the best that the Colts can hope for on offense this season. But they achieved it and then some in Week 6, and that may be enough for them to win the AFC South.
Los Angeles Rams
Offensive Crisis: Temp agency offensive line, Cooper Kupp and the Kuppcakes receiving corps.
Solution: Play a team with an interim coach and a backup quarterback.
OK, sure, the Rams finally got Allen Robinson involved, mostly by lofting 50-50 balls to him while he was covered by the Carolina Panthers cornerbacks not named Jaycee Horn. But really, Panthers interim head coach Steve Wilks and offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo ran out of plays that P.J. Walker could execute successfully in the first quarter, and the Rams got the ball back after enough three-and-outs to start hammering out scoring drives against a gassed defense in the second half of a 24-10 victory.
Final Prognosis: Sunday's offensive performance by the Rams would not have been good enough to beat any NFC team with a heartbeat.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Offensive Crisis: One quarterback stinks, the other isn't ready, the offensive line is a coffee filter, and the offensive coordinator is Brian Schottenheimer on indica.
Solution: Acceptance.
Kenny Pickett was forced out of the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-19 upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after a blow to the helmet. Enter Mitch Trubisky, who looked like … Mitch Trubisky. He produced a touchdown drive with a couple of competent throws and then took care of the ball while the rest of the Steelers produced long kickoff and punt returns, lots of red zone stops, and a 55-yard field goal that bounced over the crossbar.
Final Prognosis: Look, neither Steelers quarterback is going to make the Steelers offense look like anything but a D-III collegiate rollout factory. But Trubisky can soak up playing time against tough opponents without risking the future. And the Steelers schedule gets a little softer in November, when T.J. Watt should also be back. Don't count this team completely out just yet.
And now for a few offensive solutions which did not quite work:
Carolina Panthers: Showcase Christian McTradebait!
Christian McCaffrey rushed for 69 yards and caught seven passes for 89 yards as McAdoo looked for ways to get him more involved in the screen/misdirection game. Unfortunately, no one else on the Panthers produced more than 22 yards. And the Bills don't really look like they need to trade for a running back.
Miami Dolphins: Revolving-Door Quarterbacks and Penalties
Skylar Thompson started the loss to the Vikings and looked about as sharp as Bailey Zappe. But on one early drive, Thomson had completions of 32, 20, and 18 yards that were nullified by various penalties, and the Dolphins ended up in fourth-and-28. Thompson suffered a thumb injury, Teddy Bridgewater replaced him, and Bridgewater looked like a quarterback who cleared concussion protocol but hadn't practiced all week. Bridgewater took a lot of hits which made Walkthrough cringe, and the Dolphins ended the 24-16 loss to the Vikings with 10 penalties for 97 yards.
Mike McDaniel could learn a thing or two about handling a quarterback crisis from Matt Patricia and Joe Judge.
New Orleans Saints: Taysom Tomfoolery
Taysom Hill was once again productive at times as part of a platoon with Andy Dalton, with a 31-yard run and a pair of completions. Emergency fill-in wide receiver Rashid Shaheed added a 44-yard end-around touchdown. The Saints' issue in their 30-26 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals is that their conventional offense lacks an identity and their defense is more of a top-15 unit than a top-five unit. The former problem might resolve itself if Jameis Winston and the receivers return. The latter problem isn't going away.
Arizona Cardinals: Nothing
The Cardinals offense now consists of a few Kyler Murray scrambles and passing highlights mixed with Murray sacks, strip-sacks, fumbles while scrambling, and late-game interceptions, with some handoffs, screens, and punts surrounding everything like packing peanuts. Kliff Kingsbury is getting a lot of job-preservation mileage out of the fact that everyone forgets the Cardinals exists when they are not on prime-time television.
But … guess who's coming to Thursday Night Football?
Week 6 Awards
Trophy time.
Defender of the Week
Von Miller recorded two sacks, one of which forced the Chiefs to punt the ball back to the Bills for their fourth-quarter touchdown drive. Miller also flushed Patrick Mahomes from the pocket, setting up Teron Johnson's game-winning interception.
Offensive Line of the Week
The Atlanta Falcons line of Jake Matthews, Elijah Wilkerson, Drew Dalman, Chris Lindstrom, and Kaleb McGary helped Marcus Mariota, Tyler Allgeier, and Caleb Huntley rack up 168 rushing yards against a depleted version of the San Francisco 49ers defense.
Special Teamers of the Week
Jets rookie big man Michael Clemons blocked the punt. Veteran Will Parks scooped and scored. Quinnen Williams blocked a Mason Crosby field goal earlier in the game. The Jets are getting things done on offense, defense, and special teams so far in 2022. Meanwhile, the Packers' slow-motion nightmare continues.
Honorable mention goes to Steelers returner Steven Sims, whose 89-yard kickoff return set up a field goal. Sims also returned a punt 24 yards.
Best Supporting Actor in Someone Else's Highlight
Bengals cornerback Chidobe Awuzie saw Rashid Shaheed take an end around and wondered "who on earth is Rashid Shaheed?" (He's an undrafted rookie from Weber State who was promoted from the practice squad because Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave are injured and Michael Thomas doesn't really exist.) Awuzie then mashed the "sprint" button to catch up to Shaheed, overran the play, and desperately flicked the dive stick, with predictable results:
Rashid Shaheed was elevated from the practice squad yesterday.
He goes 44 yards for the @Saints TD!
📺: #CINvsNO on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/LIF7AUwqzz pic.twitter.com/KB0Y7bjCPQ— NFL (@NFL) October 16, 2022
Honorable mention goes to Bears offensive lineman Sam Mustipher for embracing his inner William Shatner on Thursday night:
Bears OL Sam Mustipher with an ELITE flop 😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/FYjJG2xf1w
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) October 14, 2022
Burn This Play!
Walkthrough wrote a deep statistical dive into fourth-and-1 play calling two weeks ago. Our conclusion: the precise play design does not matter much, within reasonable parameters.
Does a pistol speed option by a quarterback with B-tier-at-best mobility count as "within reasonable parameters?" You decide.
EJ SPEED. #ForTheShoe
📺: #JAXvsIND on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/8OM0dwdXrB pic.twitter.com/ugargKxtW1— NFL (@NFL) October 16, 2022
Frame This Play!
Here's an example of some of the clever stuff Brian Daboll is dialing up to compensate for the Giants' lack of offensive firepower:
Matt Breida gets POPPED on this catch out of a 3 running back formation pic.twitter.com/xCVQtTkJBU
— Talkin’ Giants (@TalkinGiants) October 16, 2022
That's a pistol diamond formation with Saquon Barkley and Matt Breida as the up-backs and Gary Brightwell as the tailback. It's a rushing look, of course, and the play-fake to Brightwell, the flat route by Saquon, and Daniel Jones on the move all work in harmony to disguise the wheel to Breida. Defensive back Brandon Stephens (21), lined up like a Will linebacker, is probably responsible for Breida in coverage, but he ends up getting caught flat-footed because he has so much to process.
Play designs like that are great for scheming second-tier playmakers open and hiding the limitations of a quarterback/offensive line … which makes you wonder why they aren't used more often. The Packers and Buccaneers could probably use wrinkles like this right now. But who knows how their touchy superstar quarterbacks would react to such do-more-with-less tactics?
Rando of the Week
Ever see a guy completely losing his sh*t in public and think, "eh, I'll just stare down at my phone intently and pretend that I am so focused on this video of puppies bouncing on a trampoline that I don't notice the complete emotional meltdown occurring 6 feet away?"
Buccaneers running game coordinator Harold Goodwin can relate:
Tom Brady with some words to his offensive line. pic.twitter.com/qBqjD7vfKg
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 16, 2022
Hey, offensive linemen are there to protect a quarterback from sacks and any feelings he may be struggling to process and express constructively. But do your job next time, Coach Goodwin: if you aren't willing to settle Brady down (admittedly not the best idea), you should stand behind him and patiently nod.
The runner-up Rando of the Week is the sound guy in this photo of Josh Allen leaping tall buildings in a single bound:
alien behavior pic.twitter.com/mhTgQnrN4g
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 16, 2022
Walkthrough drank too much coffee during Sunday Night Football, and that photo had us glitching out. Seriously ... does Mister Unibrow Parabolic Microphone Holder look like a poorly rendered Nintendo 64 character to you? Doesn't everyone in the background look Photoshopped in? Check out the beardo way in the back: his head and body don't look properly lined up. Is this all a deep fake?
No, dear friends. Josh Allen is very real. But if you ever see a picture of Michael Thomas on a football field, examine it very carefully.
Comments
112 comments, Last at 19 Oct 2022, 2:44pm
#1 by MJK // Oct 17, 2022 - 6:36am
“And this Hunter Henry touchdown isn't the result of brilliant whiteboard work, but of defensive incompetence.”
No, Henry getting open was defensive incompetence (though it was helped by clever play action design that tricked the man defender). Henry getting aTD was a result of the deep safety getting cleared out by Tyquan Thornton. You know, the player who looked really good and who you excoriated the Patriots for drafting.
An offense does get better when they get one of their most athletic players back from injury…
#14 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 10:28am
I'll actually disagree and flip the script. The fact that they got the 1st down was play design. The defender falling on his face made it extremely easy, but that play was won the instant Henry got an inside release. At that point you've got 2 receivers inside - the safety can't cover both, so it's just a high/low problem for the safety. The defender filled outside to cover the run gap, which was the mistake. As soon as Henry faked run blocking (by raising his arms, hilariously) and the defender bit, that was it. Schematically, it was over - the QB just needed to complete the play.
The fact that Henry got a TD was totally defensive incompetence. Look at the safety - the ball's in the air and almost to Henry, and the safety's hips haven't even turned yet. And Thornton's even running the opposite way! He just lost track of what was going on in the play completely.
#20 by Ben // Oct 17, 2022 - 11:11am
The safety on the hash mark is drifting away from the side where the pass is going. Even though the only eligible receiver on that side of the field is a TE that is blocking, and the Browns have two LBs playing short zone there. I have no idea what that safety was thinking.
#22 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 11:50am
If he was turned to go after Thornton, I could buy it or something. But no, he's got eyes forward, so why the heck didn't he see the defender fall? And even if he didn't, why isn't he breaking hard on the pass? Soo many questions.
#28 by Ben // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:22pm
My only guess is he’s afraid of a back side screen. The TE on that side does turn to receive a pass just as the ball is thrown. I assume that was the second offensive read.
Still, the Browns have 5 guys in coverage, and there are only 2 Pats receivers running routes. And one of them gets that wide open. Oy vey…
#104 by dryheat // Oct 18, 2022 - 9:56am
Frankly, I'm enjoying the fact that the snarky media seems to be choking on its collective hat on the idea that it's possible a coach who's spent most of his career trying to shut down offenses might understand how offenses work and ways to attack a defense.
I do miss McDaniels, and Mac definitely does too, but the Nelson Munz-ing of the idea of Patricia and Judge coaching offense I found to be the most ignorant and maddening hot-cool-and-cold take of the offseason.
#6 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 17, 2022 - 8:13am
So, since I can't imagine DVOA is that far off, are we looking at the highest number of bad teams overperforming ever? Is that even a thing?
I was sure the NFC East was going to be a dumpster fire and the Eagles at the end of week one.
#8 by The2015Panthers // Oct 17, 2022 - 9:16am
are we looking at the highest number of bad teams overperforming ever?
I'm not sure about that. Aside from the 5-1 Giants, are any of the teams with winning records particularly bad?
The 3-2-1 Colts were co-favorites to win the South. The 4-2 Jets have a lot of young talent.
#13 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 9:58am
I was sure the NFC East was going to be a dumpster fire and the Eagles at the end of week one.
The Giants are sure as hell surprising to me. They absolutely looked like a tanking team to me - not like, Texans tank, obviously, but they certainly didn't get creative with limitations in the offseason and they're sitting on $230M in 3-year cap space and trading away players for peanuts (words cannot express my thanks for James Bradberry). I legitimately will throw them into the "how are you doing this" crowd.
Thinking the Cowboys were a dumpster fire after week 1 was certainly an overreaction, especially given how quick Prescott's going to come back. DVOA projections for the Cowboys were a middle-of-the-pack offense and a top-10 defense, and the defense flat carried them the past two weeks and made it a game last night.
I'm more surprised that Washington's such a dumpster fire, but I feel like this is just me taking forever to realize how flawed Wentz actually is.
Plus, of course, keep in mind DVOA said, flat-out, that the NFC East was going to have a better record than its DVOA. All four teams had significantly higher win projections than you would've guessed from their DVOA projections.
#27 by BJR // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:20pm
The Giants are a slightly below average team so far, that has had a lot of luck in close games. 'Slightly below average' is better than I (and most) expected for sure, but their new coaching staff was highly regarded coming into the season, so it isn't an extraordinary outcome (to me anyway).
The Eagles are very good so far, which again wasn't entirely expected, but was certainly well within the range of outcomes.
The real surprise there is that the Cowboys offense has stayed afloat with Prescott out. I would not have expected that. Surprisingly good play from their new O-line is the main driver there I guess, but credit must also go to the coaching staff.
#30 by theslothook // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:27pm
I was on record calling the Giants the least talented team in football by a non trivial margin.
Like you, I think their record is a bit of a mirage but the I never imagined a possibility of them being even this good.
#37 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:51pm
The Eagles are very good so far, which again wasn't entirely expected, but was certainly well within the range of outcomes.
Philly's gotten miracle luck on OL injuries so far.
I mean, miracle. Two weeks ago they lose Mailata, their left tackle, quickly into the game, and they have no backup - because he's injured - so they shove their backup RT there and he spends the rest of the game falling on his butt in pass protection. Literally. Except it's a rainstorm and they don't have to worry about passing anyway. Then he misses the next game, too, and Philly squeaks out a win by literally a few feet after chewing the 4th quarter with practically nothing but runs. Oh, and they lose their Hall of Fame center that game, too. Except it's just before the half, so the fact that Philly can't do anything and it resulted in a pocket collapse and Hurts sandwich sack doesn't matter, because he comes back out in the second half. Oh, plus they lose their left guard too for periods here. But again, doesn't matter, because they've built a lead and don't need to do anything except run.
Now comes Dallas with a crazy good defense and magically their entire OL is back and healthy to start the game and they build a 20-0 lead. Oh, and then their best offensive linemen (Lane) gets pulled for a concussion, and their entire offense crumples. Except, hey, guess what, that 20-3 lead was good enough that they can just abandon passing and chew up over half the 4th quarter so Dallas doesn't have enough time and has to press.
You move the timing of any of those injuries around (or the weather) and they could be 3-3 right now. If Lane's concussion had happened early in the first quarter of the Dallas game, they almost certainly would've lost.
#44 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 17, 2022 - 1:11pm
On the other hand, they have had all of those injuries. It's not like they've had unsustainable injury luck.
\The 49ers have gotten whacked, but that happens so regularly I have to suspect it's a symptom of draft strategy and/or coaching tactics.
#49 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 1:15pm
Not getting injuries and having injuries occur at just the right times are both luck. It's not like Philly getting the OL injuries at "good times" means they won't get injured any more going forward.
Now, if the friggin' Giants would start losing games so Philly could clear distance from them, then you could say that the good injury timing could help them long-term because they can start being more cautious with players later in the year because of the lead they have on the entire conference. But noooo, Daboll has to keep miracle-winning games versus every friggin' team in the league.
#99 by serutan // Oct 17, 2022 - 7:33pm
I would even say he's got a great argument for (if not actually earned) COY in that case. If the Giants manage to make the playoffs, I'd say COY is close to a rubber stamp barring a dramatic turnaround for one of the other first year coaches.
#51 by Romodini // Oct 17, 2022 - 1:28pm
The Cowboys O-line has improved a lot in run blocking since last year. They look to have put an emphasis on that after how the playoffs went. Rush has been getting the ball out quickly so it's hard to tell how much better their pass protection is.
RT Terence Steele has turned out to be an upgrade over La'el Collins, which I was not expecting after how he looked in the Tampa game. As admirable as LT Tyler Smith has been, he was exposed as still being a rookie against Donald and the Eagles, so the Boys really need Tyron Smith to get better for the playoffs.
#55 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 1:51pm
I dunno, against Donald, sure. But I thought he held up really well against Philly. The difficulty they had there was dealing with Philly's 5-man fronts, since they had to double-team on the inside, so the outside couldn't get any help. When they were in the nickel with 4 under, I thought he looked solid. Dallas was in a really tough situation there with Philly's corners/safeties playing so well and having to dedicate so much to try to get them to close in.
#78 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 4:18pm
Rush's mechanics were all wacko on that throw, it's totally off his back foot. He had room to step up, it was just hurried.
That's not a great rep by Smith, but it's not horrible - I mean, he failed the right way (to the outside). In some sense, Hargrave might've caused more of a problem since he was probably the one Rush saw straight on.
#9 by johonny12 // Oct 17, 2022 - 9:27am
If you didn't like seeing Teddy get battered behind Miami's horrible Oline, just wait until it's Tua next week :( Maybe Armstrong and Jackson are back. And maybe Daniels tries another human being at LG. But that's a lot of maybes.
#11 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 17, 2022 - 9:42am
It depends on which Tua we see. If we see "get the ball out quickly" Tua, he should be better than "not that" TB even with the line being bad. If we see "slow processing" Tua we saw for a bunch of last year, it could be ugly.
As a Bills fan, I'm in favor of him sitting out the season. ;)
#16 by Will Allen // Oct 17, 2022 - 10:52am
Vikings had 14 meaningful possessions yesterday. 10 of them were 3 downs and a punt. The defense is worse than the offense.
I think I may hate this team more than any other Vikings squad I've watched in (sigh) 50-plus years. If they get to 7-1, just prior to what I think will be at least 4 straight losses, and the idiot NFL pundits on t.v. start yapping about how the new coaching staff has made the Vikings a playoff team again, I might pull an Elvis on a 75 inch flat screen.
(edit) Oh, and I really do think this is as bad as the NFC North/ Central has ever been since the merger, or at least since 1980 or 1981.
#21 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 17, 2022 - 11:19am
I might pull an Elvis on a 75 inch flat screen.
...going to die of a heart-attack while seated on it after a drug-fueled binge?
You have a stronger TV mount than I do.
(edit) Oh, and I really do think this is as bad as the NFC North/ Central has ever been since the merger, or at least since 1980 or 1981.
2014? 2008? 2004? 1992? 1990? 1987? 1984?
(1987 Bears were 8-0 against the Central and 3-5 against everyone else)
#23 by Will Allen // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:01pm
1987 was a replacement player season. Bears and Vikings had good rosters, which the Vikings didn't demonstrate until the postseason. 1984 Bears were a good team, as were the 1990 Bears. The 1992 Vikings would bludgeon the 2022 Vikings. The 2008 Vikings would bludegeon the 2022 Vikings. The 2004 Vikings would hang at least 40 on the 2022 Vikings, while likely only giving up 24, and the 2004 Packers were better. The 3rd place 2014 Vikings team in 2014 was better than this Vikings team, Green Bay was good, and the Lions decent.
Unless the Packers turn it around, I think every team in the division this year is going to range between below average to terrible.
#25 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:10pm
The Vikings aren't bad, just kind of bland and anodyne.
Green Bay is increasingly decrepit and a touch sad. Chicago is terrible in a boring way and badly wants to be like the NY teams. Detroit is an entertaining disaster.
Which, really, is a pretty solid description of each of their cities.
#31 by Will Allen // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:38pm
The one ray of hope for the Vikings is that Danielle Hunter showed signs of life yesterday, although that may better reflect on the Fins battered o-line. If Hunter returns to what he was when in good health, they have a chance to get significantly better on defense, which means they could be an average team, maybe slightly above average. The Packers? I just don't know, could go either way.
As to cities, Minneapolis/St.Paul are poorly governed, like nearly all major metropolitan areas in this country, but other than the weather 3-4 months a year, it's a nice place to live, and pretty culturally vibrant. If you think Green Bay is a touch sad now, you shoulda' seen it a few decades ago; I went there for a wedding back in '86 or so, and there wasn't enough liquor in the world to hide the despair. I've heard it's much better these days. I love Chicago, and it makes me sad that it gets crappy state government layered atop crappy city govermment. I've spent too little time in Detroit to have an opinion, except what I read and see from afar, which I suspect,and hope, is distorted to make it appear worse than it is.
#35 by theslothook // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:47pm
Visited Green Bay last year. Other than it being in the middle of nowhere, I found it charming and Lambeau is a wonderful stadium. Plus Door County was a lovely place to visit. Briefly I'll add...I also visited the Death Star in the same year, a place I never imagined I'd ever visit 10 years ago. And despite having to sit through a theater tour featuring some of my worst sports moments, the stadium is beautiful and the people were great. They did a great job with it
I have been to Chicago three times and all three times the weather has been amazing. I've been assured no matter when I come, the weather is awful but that wasn't the case at all. Plus during the later stages of the pandemic, it was so vacant that it felt like I had the city to myself. Plus I got to meet Rick Bayless.
Never been to Minneapolis, but I think one trip to SF and you will appreciate the the governance of your city by comparison. SF, a city I used to live in and love, has become a third world country.
#42 by Will Allen // Oct 17, 2022 - 1:03pm
I haven't lived in Minneapolis in a long time; final straw for me was a day in the 1st week of April with the wind chill aporoaching zero. I never minded severe winter weather in November, December or January. It starts getting old in February, is really old in March, and when it persists into April, with some snow in early May about 1 out of 5 years, it's just too damned much.
Not getting political, but what really pissed me off about the George Floyd riots in the Twin Cities is that I saw it coming decades ago. There multiple reasons why larger city police forces so often suck, and it's too complicated to get into here, even if this was a forum for discussing such things, but I knew, from 1st hand knowledge, that the Minneapolis P.D. sucked, a very long time ago, and suspected something awful would eventually result from that fact.
#81 by SandyRiver // Oct 17, 2022 - 4:32pm
Only visited there once, an Urban Forestry conference in Sept. 1993, and the host hotel was on the west side of town. The only view of the rest of the city came after the conference-sponsored Twins game, which was outstanding - Dave Winfield's hits #2999 and 3000 - the latter set up the tying run in the 9th, also stopped the game for nearly 15 minutes. The game went in extras (Twins won in 14) and when the hotel van headed back to the hotel after the 10th, 6-7 of us chose to stick to the end (about 1:45 AM), then walked the ~2 miles across the city. Maybe it was our route and the time, but we saw next to no one, though there was a middle-age Black man playing a fine Dixieland trumpet, with the music echoing from the walls.
#105 by Will Allen // Oct 18, 2022 - 10:26am
Racism isn't the primary problem. One of the most abusive police officers in recent Minneapolis history is black, who regularly beat the shit out of victims of all ethnicities, including white people, and cost the city millions, before the long struggle to fire him finally succeeded. A very powerful police officer union was the primary reason it was such a struggle. I personally witnessed police officers shaking down small businesses, back in the 80s. I was with a group of white friends after a Twins game, in the 90s, some of whom were finishing beers from a cooler they had used for tailgating before the game. The cop decided it was time to enforce the law against drinking in a city owned property, and told them to pour the beers out. One of my friends decided to chug the beer instead. The cop thought this sufficient reason to unholster and point his pistol at the source of perceived disrespect. This was before cameras on cops, so there was no point in filing a complaint.
Yes, being black increases the odds of abuse, but if the problem of illegitimate violence by police is addressed primarily through the prism of race, the effort is sure to fail, because racism is not the primary source of the behavior.
I'll forgo a discussion of Bud Grant and the political activities that result from pressures on walleye population in the northern lakes of Minnesota.
#100 by TomC // Oct 17, 2022 - 7:45pm
Just chiming in to say welcome back, Will Allen. On the Discord Channel That Dare Not Speak Its Name, one of the oldsters mentioned that there had been a Will Allen sighting in a recent comment thread, and someone replied "I don't get it, what does that mean?"
#26 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:13pm
The Eagles remain the most balanced, complete team in the NFC. They have demonstrated over the last two weeks that they can overcome their late-game lulls and retake control of games. Their future schedule only gets easier. You'd better get on the bandwagon before you are forced to cling onto the roof.
The problem for the Eagles is that the goddamn Giants need to friggin' lose! Yes, sure, the future schedule gets easier. Bye, Steelers, Texans, Commanders, Colts - I'm not sure "bye" is the easiest week on that schedule. You know who else's schedule is pretty easy, too? The Giants. Jaguars, Seahawks, Bye, Texans, Lions.
It's harder than Philly's, sure, but I could see them sweeping those teams. Only one team out of those 4 that's got a positive point differential on the year. I'm rooting hard for Doug Pederson next week.
Yes, I'm just dreaming of 2004 again when Philly clinched the top NFC seed with weeks to go. They've got a game-and-tiebreaker over the Vikings, but the damn Giants are right there. And with a week 18 game, too! Aaauugh.
#85 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 4:51pm
No, it's partly because I'm weird - I care more about the long-term success of a team than the short term success, because there's so much uncontrollable stuff in the NFL that I've always thought going all-in is ridiculous.
So of course, this year the Eagles go all in, and I'm freaking out because a wrong hit here or an awkward plant there and poof, there goes the season. And next year will not look this good: the majority of the Eagles defense is a 1-year rental at this point, for instance. There is no "there's always next year" for this team.
#94 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Oct 17, 2022 - 5:51pm
You know who else's schedule is pretty easy, too? The Giants. Jaguars, Seahawks, Bye, Texans, Lions.
There's a pretty good chance the Giants lose all four of those non-bye weeks. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they go 1-3 during that stretch.
#107 by Pat // Oct 18, 2022 - 10:32am
I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they go 1-3 during that stretch.
Me neither, but if you ask me "which do you think is more likely, 5-1 over the first 6 games or 1-3 over these next 4" it'd absolutely be the latter and the first already happened. So at this point, I'm figuring the Giants have some sort of weird voodoo charm.
Plus I'd really like to root for weird voodoo to win when the Giants play the Vikings to push that cushion over Minnesota, too. The Vikings have a pretty likely loss to Buffalo on the schedule, so if they can just pick up one more, that's a 3-game cushion (and I don't want it to be the Dallas game!) which is what I'm hoping for. And I hate counting on the Jets or Patriots for that.
Yes, I'm being greedy, I want the 3 final weeks of the season to be pointless for Philly.
#32 by theslothook // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:38pm
Bills Chiefs was a super fun, extremely well played contest. It ironically reminded me of last year's Bill's Steelers game that was an incredible defensive effort. The scoring was higher in this one because the two QBs involved are better in today's game than in that game ( yes I am aware Allen was involved in both games)
Let's get the boring take out of the way. I am slow to anoint players, but Allen has to me officially ascended to tier 1 and a legitimate debate exists between him and Mahomes, though I lean the latter because he has a longer track record.
As far as the game strategy, I thought both teams played similarly on defense. Lots of delayed blitzes that frankly I was stunned that they were even attempted. But I think both coordinators knew their customer so to speak and knew these offenses were going to look to kill you deep.
I'll be curious how DVOA paints the game, but I thought the Chiefs narrowly outplayed the Bills. And really the difference in the game came down to a hero play by Allen on third and long backed up into his own end zone. 90 percent of the time that drive ends up into a punt and a likely Chiefs Score. Instead it led to a touchdown.
Also, it was interesting that this wasnt the new and improved Allen but vintage Allen, in that a lot of his throws were tough throws, lots of scrambles and hero plays and lots of missed quick short sideline passes. The timing, rhythmic and within structure style that killed the Rams in week 1 this was not . Perhaps that will always be a tension in his game?
Another observation is Kelce continues to be an absolute torture chamber for the Bills, who continue to struggle with him despite whomever they throw at him. Some of those plays, the lbs stopped running with him as if they were anticipating the throw and route and were guessing wrong every time. Maybe the Bills will figure it out next time or maybe they will score enough that it won't matter, but it's painful when you are giving up gashing long yardage plays in the middle over and over. But otherwise, I thought the defense was really good and Mahomes just made his usual insane plays. I think this is the kind of game you miss Hill. That's not exactly second guessing, that was always where the embarrassment of riches on offense would pay off.
Finally, you watch Mahomes and his stuff really shouldn't work. Side armed passes, hop skip throws, desperate heaves that are on the money time and time again. I would never teach this stuff to other QBs because there are approximately 0 other QBs who can do this and it doesn't lead to horrible mistakes. The dude is just a damn wizard.
#34 by tjb // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:46pm
Aaron mentioned in his twitter feed that the Bills are now #1 in both offense and defense DVOA, so I am guessing that DVOA thinks that Buffalo outplayed KC by a considerable margin. This makes some degree of sense given that Buffalo's turnover was a fumble (less predictive in the DVOA model) while Mahomes threw 2 picks (more predictive)
Edit: I just checked the single game numbers and DVOA thinks the Bills had a (slightly) better game against KC than they did against Pittsburgh (!!!) Obviously, the opponent adjustment plays into that, but still... wow.
#48 by Will Allen // Oct 17, 2022 - 1:14pm
And Mahomes is probably not such woodhead as to need to get figuratively slapped upside the noggin on a near constant basis, so as to avoid dumb stuff. He'll also likely avoid having Ray Rhodes/Mike Sherman level coaching/management incompetence for 8 years of his career.
#38 by Ben // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:52pm
While watching Mahomes doing Mahomes stuff is amazing (as long as he’s not playing your favorite team), I do wonder if he’s going to be one of those QBs whose play suddenly just falls off a cliff whenever it is that age catches up to him.
#41 by theslothook // Oct 17, 2022 - 12:57pm
He gets hit a lot and unlike some of the other QBs, he gets up shaking his leg or thumb or stretching his torso. Hes already been knocked out of one playoff game.
I think his arm strength and speed will be fine, but the cumulative hits may make him walk away/injury prone as he ages.
#45 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 1:11pm
Mahomes is just a weird human being, his ligaments are very loose overall. That's why he came back so quickly from the dislocated kneecap that freaked the hell out of Travis Kelce when he saw it on the field (well, and everyone else) . Doctor's comments on him have basically been that he's more likely to have short-term injuries but heal from them quicker because the ligaments don't tear.
#58 by Mike B. In Va // Oct 17, 2022 - 2:15pm
The real question is: Who *isn't* Kelce a torture chamber for? If the offense executes, it doesn't matter how good your defense is, and Kelce pretty much always executes at this point.
The Bills went out and got Von Miller (and upgraded the center of the D-Line, too) for exactly that scenario - to disrupt Mahomes' timing and make him go sandlot while having one of the two fast LBs spying him. Because if you throw Mahomes off, it doesn't matter how open Kelce is. It blew up a couple of times, but you're only going to limit that guy so much.
As for the other side, Allen Hero Ball in the modern sense is what this offense is built around. When they can, they do the thing they did against the Rams. When teams take that away and can't cover long, well, ask Pittsburgh how that goes. When none of that works, Allen hurdles someone or makes some ridiculous throw and wills the team to win.
#59 by Tutenkharnage // Oct 17, 2022 - 2:20pm
I think the overwhelming majority of football fans have it in their heads that Mahomes is a much, much better passer than Allen and that Allen is a great quarterback because of his running. And they're not wrong, at least about that second part: Allen's ability to go all Superman at any given moment is a real asset. But I recently read that the two quarterbacks' numbers "are practically identical since 2020," and I thought that had to be wrong, so I added up the stats from their last 44 starts, which covers that period. Here you go:
- Player A: 1,090 of 1,639 (66.5%) for 12,385 yards (7.6 YPA), 104 TDs (6.3%), and 30 INTs (1.8%)
- Player B: 1,142 of 1,714 (66.6%) for 13,222 yards (7.7 YPA), 107 TDs (6.2%), and 28 TDs (1.6%)
Now, pop quiz: which one is Allen, and which one is Mahomes? If you need a hint, the number of attempts will probably give you all the information you need, but be honest ... did you think the stats would be anywhere near that close? I know I sure didn't.
DYAR tells a different story, mind you: Player A—spoiler, that's Allen—has 3,169 passing DYAR on those 1,639 attempts (1.9 DYPA), whereas Player B—excuse me, Mahomes—has 4,327 passing DYAR on those 1,714 attempts (2.5 DYPA). The difference is ... a little more than 21 inches per attempt, as it turns out? But Patrick Mahomes has spent his entire career being coached by a Hall of Fame head coach who is one of the best offensive minds of his time and throwing to a first-ballot Hall of Fame tight end and a unicorn of a wide receiver who might end up in the Hall of Fame as well. Josh Allen has had Stefon Diggs, who is really, really damn good but nowhere near the Hall of Fame at the moment. And when it comes to passer rating since 2020, they're practically indistinguishable:
- Allen: 102.5
- Mahomes: 103.8
(If you're curious, Allen's rushing figures for the last three regular seasons knock about 130 DYAR off of Mahomes's advantage, but no, I'm not going to run all the numbers again, and no, I'm not going to hunt down all the Quick Reads from the last three postseasons a second time, thank you very much!)
None of this is to say that Allen is unequivocally Mahomes's equal as a passer, or that he's better, or anything like that. But if anyone is reading this and still holding on to the idea that Allen can't come into a game and beat a team all by himself as a passer, your take is outdated. And as a Bills fan, after last year's finish, I no longer go into any game thinking the other team has a better quarterback than Buffalo does. A quarterback who can make the league's best pass defense look foolish, as Mahomes has done? Sure. A quarterback who can win a game all by himself if needed? Oh, no doubt. But a better quarterback? A more dominant football force? No way in hell. And Josh Allen should absolutely terrify fans of every other team in the league, just like Mahomes does ... just on his passing credentials alone! Add in his running game, and he's literally the only player of his kind we've ever seen in the NFL. And I couldn't be happier that he's on this team.
#61 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 2:29pm
But Patrick Mahomes has spent his entire career being coached by a Hall of Fame head coach who is one of the best offensive minds of his time and throwing to a first-ballot Hall of Fame tight end and a unicorn of a wide receiver who might end up in the Hall of Fame as well. Josh Allen has had Stefon Diggs, who is really, really damn good but nowhere near the Hall of Fame at the moment.
To be fair, Allen also has a damn good head coach (from, uh, the same coaching tree) and a much, much better defense than Mahomes has had. Meaning that he's been in extremely favorable passing situations.
#63 by Tutenkharnage // Oct 17, 2022 - 2:34pm
Kind of like Brady in that he never had to play against Belichick's defenses (at least while he was in New England), whereas Manning had to keep dealing with that nonsense. As for McDermott, he's a very good coach, but he came here as a ground-and-pound dude with an old-school mentality. Credit to him for keeping up with the times and having the stones to sign off on stuff like "screw this, bomb play from our 2 against Pittsburgh" and "I know it's third-and-13 from our own 1, now call a play that can get us a first down," but he shouldn't be confused with Andy Reid.
Seems to me that both teams have had the lead quite a bit the last two-plus years, given their records, which suggests neither one has had a big advantage when it comes to "extremely favorable passing situations" (except for when the Bills have played the Chiefs, of course, since the Bills have always had the better pass defense).
#67 by Pat // Oct 17, 2022 - 2:57pm
As for McDermott, he's a very good coach, but he came here as a ground-and-pound dude with an old-school mentality. Credit to him for keeping up with the times[..] but he shouldn't be confused with Andy Reid.
I don't have the same opinion of Reid as you do. I don't think of Reid as this phenomenal schematic mind like Belichick is with New England. Reid's a phenomenal football coach. He's great at identifying schematic talent. Like, he sees Doug Pederson as a player in Green Bay, is impressed with how he picks up the game, brings him along for coaching and he's eventually the OC and now a Super Bowl-winning head coach. Or Mike Kafka, who he drafted, then picks him up as a coach and now he's an OC as well.
I'm not saying Reid's not smart about football on his own, but his real skill is how he surrounds himself with great talent. And I've been really impressed with how McDermott's doing that as well, especially after losing Daboll (who also is doing the same thing).
edit: Oops, forgot to respond to this:
Seems to me that both teams have had the lead quite a bit the last two-plus years, given their records, which suggests neither one has had a big advantage when it comes to "extremely favorable passing situations"
The difference is that, in the Chiefs' case, it's due to their offense (which Mahomes is part of). In the Bills' case, plenty of times it's due to their defense (which Allen is not).
#64 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 17, 2022 - 2:40pm
And Josh Allen should absolutely terrify fans of every other team in the league, just like Mahomes does ... just on his passing credentials alone! Add in his running game, and he's literally the only player of his kind we've ever seen in the NFL.
circa-1992 Steve Young would like a word.
\or 2019 Lamar Jackson, who was doing this with basically zero wide receivers.
#77 by BJR // Oct 17, 2022 - 4:13pm
I don't think it's true to say he was never close. 2010-2011 Vick was a very good player (though not 2019 MVP Lamar level, obviously).
But yes, it's an insulting comparison overall. Vick's Andy Reid years were ultimately only a frustrating glimpse into what he could have been.
#98 by Will Allen // Oct 17, 2022 - 6:44pm
Yet another guy who remembers things about Vick that just aren't true, even ignoring the issue that if the qb hasn't put in the work needed to efficiently identify the best target, the purely physical throwing ability becomes rather less relevant.
#69 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 17, 2022 - 3:10pm
Like I said -- no receivers.
You pointed out that Diggs isn't on the Hall track. The only receivers from the 2019 Ravens who are active in the league right now are Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst. Lamar had one good tight end, one functional tight end, and four warm bodies. Three of whom are no longer warm.
#73 by theslothook // Oct 17, 2022 - 3:50pm
Tbh, I don't see the Vick similarities despite all of the stylistic connections you would assume make him the perfect comp.
Lamar has lapped Vick as a passer and plays in a familiar pro style system. I think at this point, Lamar is a good passer who has dynamic rushing ability. I think the days of him being a run first, pass second compliment are not indicative of who he is any longer.
#75 by Aaron Brooks G… // Oct 17, 2022 - 4:01pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9O5fXUOAvoY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGlYCUzsLXU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-vpFFmj-Og (first clip)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ryp5stOTf5k
That last one he bulls through six defenders waiting for him inside the five yard line.
#74 by theslothook // Oct 17, 2022 - 3:52pm
I don't really buy this whole, "beat a team by himself" thing. It's never been true despite the disproportionate amount of attention QBs receive.
To quote Mrs Brady, "My husband cannot throw the ball and catch the ball at the same time!".
#60 by Tutenkharnage // Oct 17, 2022 - 2:29pm
As far as the game strategy, I thought both teams played similarly on defense. Lots of delayed blitzes that frankly I was stunned that they were even attempted. But I think both coordinators knew their customer so to speak and knew these offenses were going to look to kill you deep.
...
Also, it was interesting that this wasnt the new and improved Allen but vintage Allen, in that a lot of his throws were tough throws, lots of scrambles and hero plays and lots of missed quick short sideline passes. The timing, rhythmic and within structure style that killed the Rams in week 1 this was not . Perhaps that will always be a tension in his game?
I think the first paragraph answers the question posed at the end of the second. The Rams sat back early and rushed four, hoping to bait Allen into making throws he shouldn't have to make, so he took the dump-offs to backs and tight ends, just as he did in the rematch with New England in the 2021 regular season. When that didn't work and they were forced to gamble, they brought the pressure and paid for it courtesy of long bombs to Diggs and Davis. The Chiefs decided not to do this, so they brought pressure from all over, gambling that they could get the better of Allen more often than he could get the better of them, and the pressure resulted in tougher throws all over the field.
#54 by Paul R // Oct 17, 2022 - 1:39pm
Re: Burn This Play
The Jags had been murdering the Colts on runs through the B gap in the first half, which is the kind of thing that can happen when your all-star DE and Linebacker are on the bench. Indy managed to adjust and shut down that running lane in the second half. The Jags coaches must have figured the pistol option gave them two chances to attack even farther outside since the B gap was now closed. It's the kind of decision that sounds good at first when you haven't really thought it through and when you forget that you only need one yard.
I've been really excited about the Colts' Jelani Woods all season. He's huge, he's got good hands, and he's got that Gronk-like way of working quickly down the field without ever seeming to move fast. Having Gronk around added a few seasons to Brady's career, I'm sure. If you have an aging quarterback, you should also keep a giant TE who can be relied on to catch a quick fade as needed. Woods is a rookie. With experience, he will learn to shove defenders out of the way and not have it look so obvious.
#91 by sk57 // Oct 17, 2022 - 5:34pm
The article references the KC end zone interception as a "mistake". As a fan, I was disappointed in the outcome but happy with PM's decision and execution. At 3rd and goal from the 6, faced with throwing it away or throwing a 50/50 jump ball to a covered receiver its best to risk the interception. For a 50/50 ball, the expected points are about 3-1/2. Throwing it away the expected points are a little less than 3.
#97 by dmstorm22 // Oct 17, 2022 - 6:35pm
I actually think its better than that, as given the receiver is taller, I think it is more likely you get the TD than an INT there - with of course the FG still being an option on all the outcomes where that's an incomplete pass.
#101 by sk57 // Oct 17, 2022 - 8:17pm
Right. Its like 45% TD, 35% INT, 20% Inc for the average WR vs CB situation. So, put it up for grabs.
Up for grabs = .45x7+.2x3 = 3.75 pts. I don't know of a stat site that has enough granularity to not downgrade PM for it tho. Maybe FO 2032.
#108 by Pat // Oct 18, 2022 - 11:52am
but happy with PM's decision and execution.
Brain... can't... process... initials! Can we go with either just "Pat" (shameless) or PM2 rather than PM (PM2 is double appropriate!)? PM just processes to Manning straight off. Honestly I can't even believe I never realized before that Mahomes and Manning have the same first/last initials. That's embarassing.