Justin Fields and the NFL's Most Squandered Resources
NFL Week 9 - Imagine if Justin Fields played quarterback for the New York Jets.
You can keep everything else: Fields' one-read-and-run style, his habit of creating self-sacks, all the real-or-imagined negatives on his scouting report. Just give him the Jets' receiving corps and offensive line, a defense that keeps games close (and was not just sold for scrap), and coaches with a smidge of creativity.
The Jets would at least be 6-2 right now—the Patriots proved two weeks ago that they cannot keep up with Fields—and an existential quarterback crisis would not be ruining their best season in nearly a decade. Fields would be regarded as a star on the rise, his flaws mitigated and his development on a relatively smooth track.
But no, the Jets are stuck with a freshman pledge brandishing a tee-shirt cannon at quarterback, and Fields is trapped on a team that is trading away its entire defense while funneling its passing game through N'Keal Harry and (now) Chase Claypool, who is still eating lunch off one three-touchdown game as a rookie in 2020.
Fields is a squandered resource: a first-round quarterback (whose team traded up for him!) who is just wilting on the vine while his team chases its own tail. In fact, Fields ranks 10th on the Walkthrough 2022 Squandered NFL Resource List. He would rank higher if he were more polished as a prospect, or if ruining young quarterbacks wasn't the NFL's all too common original sin.
You simply cannot wait for the rest of the Squandered Resource countdown, can you? So let's get started.
9. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Let's check in on Jerry Jones' reaction to Tony Pollard's 14-131-3 performance on Sunday…
I asked Jerry Jones if he understands argument for Tony Pollard as Cowboys RB1.
“No, there’s no argument. Zeke’s ability to punish, Zeke’s ability to deliver it, Zeke’s ability to what he does for us in pass protection & frankly Zeke’s ability to make big plays are there.
(1/2)— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) October 31, 2022
Predictable. Talking to Jerry Jones about running backs is like talking to my mother about the Bible. Mom has an impregnable spiritual head-canon built not from rigorous scriptural study but from quarter-remembered catechism, barely-heard homilies, Italian folk traditions, movies, vivid daydreams, and bits of old Steinbeck and Godfather novels that she has begun to mix up with the gospels.
Similarly, Jerrah has built his theories about running backs around things he heard Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells tell him decades ago; fond memories of Emmitt Smith, Darren McFadden, and Felix Jones; and his personal need to both sound like an old-school football guy and build an I meant to do that mythology around Ezekiel Elliott's $90-million contract.
Pollard only ranks ninth among squandered resources because: a) he's a running back; and b) he does get some opportunities. But if the Cowboys split their touches 70-30 in favor of Pollard instead of the other way around, it might be enough to turn around a close loss now and then. Remember the Cowboys' close loss in the 2021 playoffs? The one where Elliott gained 31 yards on 13 touches? You get the idea.
8. Every NFL Fullback Except Kyle Juszczyk
As detailed a few weeks ago in Walkthrough, NFL teams are starting to rediscover the fullback and the I-formation now that most "linebackers" are just slightly burlier-than-usual cornerbacks. But few fullbacks except Kyle Juszczyk of the 49ers ever get a meaningful touch.
Imagine if offensive coordinators remembered that fullbacks are useful on short-yardage runs, first-down "keybreakers," outlet passes, screens, wheel routes, and leak routes! What if some young mastermind realized that fullbacks don't need to be Moose Johnston-like mini-guards: they can be burly Tyler Allgeier-/Samaje Perine-type all-purpose backs or versatile tight ends. And Moose-like fullbacks such as Keith Smith, Zander Horvarth, C.J. Ham, and Jakob Johnson can do much more than they are currently asked to do, especially for teams that like to run the ball and aren't loaded with talent elsewhere.
Alas, 20-plus years of leaving run-game installation to offensive line coaches has atrophied the brains of hotshot offensive coordinators: no one gets Next McVay notice by perfecting "FB Trap." Instead, most fullbacks will get their first and only carry of the season on a "surprise" fourth-and-1 plunge in the fourth quarter of a December must-win game. The rusty designated blocker will lose a yard, and the analytics department will be blamed.
7. The Indianapolis Colts' Cap Space
The Colts are sitting on about $7 million in unused cap space right now. That may not sound like much, but imagine if…
- They made a preseason run at Duane Brown or Jason Peters to play left tackle with that money;
- They spent a little cash on any sort of wide receiver depth;
- They simply front-loaded Matt Ryan's contract into this season instead of spreading the misery into 2023;
- They literally did anything except sit on their excess cap space like a pudgy little dragon who loves the way a pile of gold coins feels against his tuckus.
Wait, wait, Walkthrough is receiving a call from the mighty, undeterrable Chris Ballard Defense League!
Oh, sure, you are one of those guys who pretends to have 20-20 hindsight. No one—absolutely no one—could have predicted that Matt Ryan was washed, or that left tackle and wide receiver were going to be sore spots. And the Colts DO spend their cap space: ever hear of 32-year-old cornerback Stephon Gilmore? C'mon, haters. Andrew Luck just retired and left the team in a lurch 38 months ago! Chris Ballard is doing the absolute best any human can possibly do under the circumstances.
Whatever. Ballard is a success-o-phobe who keeps money tucked away for emergencies while the roof leaks and the light sockets spark, and the current Colts administration is rapidly, sadly circling the drain. The team's next general manager and coach will have their work cut out for them in 2023. And they won't even have all that much cap space to work with.
6. Russell Wilson's Goodwill
Wilson arrived in Denver with a decade-deep reservoir of benefit-of-the-doubt, and it all evaporated in two months.
Sure, Wilson's manufactured public persona and flaky/insufferable reputation among some teammates were a poorly guarded secret, but he was still someone who was dedicated to his craft and got results. It's stunning to see how suddenly he has fallen from the NFL's quarterback pantheon to a cross between a punchline and franchise poison.
The Wilson saga will inevitably have a third act, perhaps this season: it feels like the Broncos offense bottomed out against the Colts in Week 4 and will start leveling out somewhere in the third quartile soon. Walkthrough will welcome a redemption storyline: self-promotion and over-commitment to the goofier elements of the self-help lifestyle are not heinous crimes. But only another Super Bowl will erase images of in-flight workouts, imaginary high-fives, and all the other pampered popstar silliness now associated with Wilson. If he had only taken some of the DangeRUSS stuff down from an 11 to maybe a 7.5 and acted a little more like the hungry unknown rookie of a decade ago, the 2022 season might look very different.
5. Detroit Lions Offensive Line
Watch any Lions game and you will see that Penei Sewell, Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow, Evan Brown, and Jonah Jackson are a championship-caliber offensive line yoked to a perpetual rebuilding team coached by a refugee from a Bass Pro Shops marketing department focus group. Jared Goff looks semi-competent because of his protection. Amon-Ra St. Brown and other receivers put up respectable numbers because Goff can sit in the pocket safely and toss deep sideline passes. Jamaal Williams is tearing up your fantasy league because he has room to run.
Transplant the Lions offensive line anywhere else in the NFL and Tom Brady would look 41 again, Derrick Henry would already have 1,000 rushing yards, Mac Jones would still be earning hosannas, the Bengals would be 6-2, or the Falcons would be taken seriously. But the Lions are 1-7, firing defensive assistant coaches, and trading away their best assets. By the time the organization figures things out, fires Sergeant Soundbite, gets real at quarterback, and so forth, Decker will be in his 30s and Sewell will be eyeing up a payday.
The Lions rank third in adjusted line yards and second in adjusted sack rate. They should be leveraging this offensive line into a playoff appearance in 2022. Instead, they're barring all the exits and preparing to set themselves on fire yet again.
4. Michael Thomas' Contract
Oh come now: you didn't really think Walkthrough could get through a "squandered resources" list without a stop in the Big Easy, did you?
Walkthrough operates under the assumption that Michael Thomas is not a real person, but an accounting fiction created by Mickey Loomis to circumvent the salary cap. On the rare occasions someone named "Michael Thomas" speaks to the media or takes the field, the Saints dress an obscure practice squad receiver named "Big'Humphrey Jordan" in a No. 13 jersey, safe in the knowledge that no one remembers what Thomas was supposed to look like. Those 373 receptions from 2017-to-2019 are a clerical error. And Thomas' nearly $56-million in 2023/2024 cap obligations are just sitting in a Cayman Islands account, waiting for Loomis to sneak out of the country in a Panama hat.
What's hilarious about Loomis' nigh-compulsive salary-cap machinations entering this season is not that they crippled the Saints for the next two years, but that they were utterly needless. The Saints could have dumped Jameis Winston, traded Thomas to anyone willing to eat some money, kept the 2023 first-round pick they traded for injured Trevor Penning, tapped out of the Jarvis Landry market, and gone a long way toward cleaning up their future finances while fielding the exact semi-competitive lineup they have fielded for weeks. They could be halfway toward a productive rebuilding cycle right now! Instead, they will probably still be digging out of a hole in 2024.
Jason Fitzgerald at Over the Cap reports that the Saints could take some of the sting out of their future cap apocalypse by getting Thomas to radically restructure his contract. Great idea. They just have to locate Thomas first. Assuming he's real.
3. The Latter Half of J.J. Watt's Career
Compare Von Miller's late career to that of J.J. Watt. Miller helped the Rams win a Super Bowl in 2021. He might help the Bills win one this year. Even when he was stuck on bad Broncos teams of the late 2010s, Miller played the dignified Face of the Franchise role and remained relevant.
Watt? He escaped the Texans only to spend the last two seasons as part of Steve Keim's collection of famous old guys, toiling away for Coach J. Crew's Afterthought Defense.
Did you know Watt has 4.5 sacks this season? He's playing well! He'd look great on the Chiefs or Ravens as the missing ingredient for a team in the thick of the Super Bowl chase. Instead, he gets a huge cheer when he runs out of the tunnel, then he watches the Cardinals lose games on aborted snaps and muffed punts.
Watt was the best defensive player in the NFL for half a decade. He's a first-ballot Hall of Famer. His final seasons should feel important. But he's stuck with one of the NFL's most directionless franchises.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers Playmakers
The Steelers offense is like that Electric Football game with the vibrating field and the little plastic players. Kenny Pickett (or Mitch Trubisky, or Ben Roethlisberger's bartender) calls "hike," someone flips a switch, and half the Steelers run in little circles while the rest just crash into the nearest sideline.
Walkthrough advocated a "wait and see" approach to Matt Canada's system in the past, but the wait is over and we have seen enough: Canada's scheme belongs on a junior-high flag football circuit, not the NFL.
The Steelers rank 18th in air yards per completion at 5.5, but they rank dead last in YAC per completion at 3.7. In other words, their quarterbacks don't throw the ball very far, but their targets make up for it by doing little after the catch. And frankly, the air yards per completion are probably inflated by intermediate passes at the end of blowout losses; Pickett threw almost nothing but short sideline slop against the Eagles until things got silly in the fourth quarter.
George Pickens is a deep-boundary specialist, and Chase Claypool was under-achieving before getting traded. Fine. How does Diontae Johnson only average 1.9 YAC per reception? How does Pat Freiermuth average less YAC per catch than someone named Kylen Granson? Najah Harris has less YAC per catch than J.D. McKissic. This is only possible when the opposing defense knows that 75% of all pass attempts will be rollouts or screens.
The Steelers can make all the trades they want and juggle quarterbacks until their fans are dizzy as long as they ship Canada back to the ACC where he belongs as soon as possible.
1. The Houston Texans' Jack Easterby Era
The most precious resource in the universe is time. No NFL franchise can afford to waste a season: if you're not competing, you'd better be fast-track rebuilding. Yet the Texans are in the process of squandering their third consecutive season, thanks in large part to recently departed Svengoolie (he was always too corny to be a true Svengali) Jack Easterby.
Easterby's rise to power brought the Bill O'Brien tenure to an overboil in 2020: wasted year one. Easterby's noodling behind-the-scenes puppeteering led to both Deshaun Watson's initial demands to leave the team and the organization's "interim-everyone" approach to its coaching staff in 2021 and now 2022: wasted years two and three. Remember, accusations about Watson's sexual misconduct came after he demanded a trade; he wasn't suspended in 2021, merely on super-secret (paid) probation.
Sure, the Texans now have a bunch of future first-round picks thanks to the eventual Watson trade. That's all they have. The Texans are a glorified expansion team that has not even tried to be relevant since 2019.
Easterby left the Texans in a "mutual parting" in mid-October, leaving either Nick Caserio or Cal McNair's golf caddie in charge of football operations. The Texans should start moving forward again in 2023, with a real coaching staff/quarterback/org chart. But three years of potential relevance are gone forever. How long will it take for the Texans to get them back? The Jaguars, Jets, Browns, and Lions are still trying to answer that question.
Comments
62 comments, Last at 06 Nov 2022, 5:53pm
#1 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 03, 2022 - 10:04am
Imagine if Justin Fields played quarterback for the New York Jets.
Isn't that basically the case for anyone who is color-blind?
Mom has an impregnable spiritual head-canon built not from rigorous scriptural study but from quarter-remembered catechism, barely-heard homilies, Italian folk traditions, movies, vivid daydreams, and bits of old Steinbeck and Godfather novels that she has begun to mix up with the gospels.
I think that makes her an Apostle.
The rusty designated blocker will lose a yard, and the analytics department will be blamed.
Analytics hates the entire concept of the fullback.
If he had only taken some of the DangeRUSS stuff down from an 11 to maybe a 7.5 and acted a little more like the hungry unknown rookie of a decade ago, the 2022 season might look very different.
If he had done those things, he'd still be in Seattle.
By the time the organization figures things out, fires Sergeant Soundbite, gets real at quarterback, and so forth, Decker will be in his 30sxxx80s and Sewell will be eyeing up a paydayxxxxxxxdead.
Mike, it's been 65 years. They aren't going to figure things out.
he was always too corny to be a true Svengali
Go revisit Svengali (or the novel, Trilby). Half the plot and characters are making fun of Svengali until they realize too late how dangerous he actually is and many of the characters are killed. Which is really a lot like the Texans.
#29 by Pat // Nov 03, 2022 - 2:51pm
Mike, it's been 65 years. They aren't going to figure things out.
Or even if they do hire a decent coach and have some success, one of the Fords' friends will come along and be like "hey, my guy can get you over the playoff hump. That coach just can't get you there" and they'll go and fire said decent coach.
I feel like the only way the Lions are getting to the Super Bowl is if they just completely luck into it.
#32 by Alex@ // Nov 03, 2022 - 3:42pm
I sometimes wonder if this isn't the case for every football team.
The Lions, and the Jets, are largely both clown organizations ... except when they have both professional-level football staff and good/great players. Fontes/Caldwell, Parcells/Ryan, Sanders/Megatron, (help me out here)/Revis. By professional, I'm talking about statements from players that were under both Caldwell and Patricia, who described how the Caldwell practices were well organized and focused, as opposed to the Patricia practices. Caldwell wasn't taking them to any championships, but he brought a professionalism to his work that, let's say, wasn't replicated by his successor.
Actual business, and football business, seem wildly different to me. The Cowboys aren't trying to actually take over the Football Team, unlike say Facebook eating Instagram.
While the faces of the organizations are all "business successes" (or their heirs), what of that business success actually predicts football success?
Well, even the Lions and Jets can have (some) success with professional football personnel!
Paul Brown and Al Davis were on both sides, and their legacies are interlaced with actual success on the football field. Is there any ownership group - except those two guys - that has ever done better than hire professionals and GTFO?
Heck, the mighty Steelers were a total clown organization until Noll! The only reason we don't know if they still are is because they've succeeded in hiring top-level football staff ever since. My hypothesis is, they'd go right back to clowning if some Easterby-type talked them into firing Tomlin for a Patricia-type: there's no Steelers mystique, just professional football staff.
(Lions Jets Steelers just examples. Using "clown" not meant to insult but to emphasize. All jokes on Patricia are at his expense, though.)
#33 by Pat // Nov 03, 2022 - 4:29pm
To be clear, my comment wasn't actually hypothetical, that is pretty much what happened when they fired Caldwell.
My hypothesis is, they'd go right back to clowning if some Easterby-type talked them into firing Tomlin for a Patricia-type
It's more than just the head coach, though. Most football organizations don't turn over the majority of their staff, even when the GM/coach are fired. In a lot of ways, it's all just scapegoating. When a true complete turnover happens, it's usually pretty obvious, like with Beane and the Bills, because it's not normal for a huge swath of football scouts/operations types to get fired.
Philly's been through 4 head coaches now since 2000, for instance, and there's been very little turnover year-to-year. Sometimes even the coaching staff doesn't change: Jeff Stoutland's been there for 3 head coaches now! I'm not saying that the head coach is meaningless, mind you. I'm saying that if some Easterby-type talked the Steelers into firing Tomlin for Patricia, they wouldn't be the Steelers. They've got too many skilled people in that front office that can recognize that bull.
Likewise, in Philly, if a head coach came in and said "that Jeff Stoutland guy, he's just not the right fit for what I want to do," Lurie would be like "thanks for your time, the door is behind you."
#37 by Alex@ // Nov 03, 2022 - 6:29pm
Oh, I got the tongue-in-cheek on the Caldwell ref. :-)
It's more than just the head coach, though. Most football organizations don't turn over the majority of their staff, even when the GM/coach are fired. In a lot of ways, it's all just scapegoating. When a true complete turnover happens, it's usually pretty obvious, like with Beane and the Bills, because it's not normal for a huge swath of football scouts/operations types to get fired.
This is right on. Rex Ryan clearly had something going on there. Yet none of it seemed to stick. I'm trying to understand if that failure is Jets-specific, or "business sense doesn't necessarily mean football business sense."
Training staff, equipment staff, food staff, many layers of medical staff. All of these are football-adjacent, but not coaching / gm'ing / playing. And they all stay, more or less.
Many of the coaching / gm'ing also stay, even when the titular heads are removed, as you point out.
This happens for every franchise though; no coach lasts forever. Parcells embedded the football people so deeply into decision making that NE could survive Carroll to get to Belichick. Parcells embedded the football people so deeply into decision making that NY ... fired them all too? Just ignored them til they went away on their own? What happened there? Maybe Carroll was above that minimum professional line such that the football business sense was kept? Would NE have survived an interregnum of, say, Matt Rhule, to be so successful so early in Belichick's time?
#44 by Pat // Nov 04, 2022 - 10:16am
Chip Kelly doomed himself when he fired Carol Cullen. I mean, OK, not really, but it's a bit of a metaphor - I think Lurie saw not only the lack of success from Kelly's Eagles, but also the change in the people around and was probably like 'hey, wait, we're getting away from everything that made us a winning organization." Cullen had worked as an exec assistant for Philly for 29 years, through seven head coaches and two owners. Kelly fired her unexpectedly after his second season. He was fired less than a year later.
It's not that she specifically was doing anything (it's not like they brought her back and magically became better - they certainly mended fences, given that she got a Super Bowl ring and was texting the team during the game, but y'know - she had a new job) but it's emblematic of the point.
Really, though, a lot of it reminds me of a conversation I had during college with people who worked in student services. As a student, you could push for changes all you wanted - it wouldn't matter, they wouldn't listen to you, because they knew in a few years, you'd be gone, and they'd still be there. That's organizational inertia.
But it's even more than that, too. When Nick Sirianni came into Philly, it was already a winning organization with a rock-solid staff. He kept Jeff Stoutland, who's the OL coach and run game coordinator. I've said many times, Philly won the Super Bowl on the backs of a Hall of Fame offensive line. And the guy who coaches that OL and handles the run game and pass blocking planning for the team? He's still there. What about the entire training/conditioning staff? Did he have to build that? Nope. All ready-built for him.
If you're a head coach coming into a losing organization, especially a first time head coach... all these things that were just Done Right for you in your previous job (assuming you were on a winning team), you have to figure out how to do yourself. It's a huge ask.
#52 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 04, 2022 - 11:41am
No, he's not.
He rode Jimmy Johnson and then the ghost of Jimmy Johnson, and he's done shit-all since other than luck into two late-round QBs who turned into studs.
\which is entirely luck; if he expected them to be good, he would have taken them sooner
#2 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 03, 2022 - 10:19am
Perhaps it's worth reviewing the career of the other analytic darling who was never entirely trusted with a full carry load, which kept getting split with power backs who did the dirty work he didn't:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CharJa00.htm
Charles was never able to handle more than about 300 touches in a season, and kept breaking down. Coaches seem to regard Pollard the same way. Maybe he'll go somewhere else and be Priest Holmes. Or maybe he'll always be a higher-usage Darren Sproles.
#4 by Pat // Nov 03, 2022 - 11:07am
I think it's also one of these things where you need to be patient with changes overall: like, in previous years, Pollard and Zeke had roughly the same DYAR, which is actually an indication they're being used roughly correct. Use Pollard more and his efficiency would go down, use Zeke less and his efficiency would go up, etc. etc. And the statements they made regarding pass blocking were also correct in prior years: Zeke's pass blocking was well above average, Pollard's was below average.
This year, it looks like Pollard's pass blocking better and the increased usage isn't hurting him. And they are using him more. But you don't like, suddenly swap 100% of the touches over to someone based on a few games of usage versus the prior years of data.
Pass blocking especially is one of those things that you need to err on the side of caution.
#46 by Pat // Nov 04, 2022 - 10:33am
but maybe start by making it 50-50.
It's not far off, except in game script situations. In most games Elliot ends up getting more touches because they're winning, and he's better running into worse situations (like end of game). In the Tampa/Dallas game in Week 1 they were essentially identical (40 to 38). In the Philly game (when they were also losing) Elliot got more touches because they were having success with inside runs, where Elliot's better anyway.
You can't just look at pure touches and be like "they're not using Pollard right!" They're using Pollard and Elliot differently. They're both having success. They're both contributing to the team winning. The whole argument is silly.
LenDale White had a rant about this on a podcast just this past week, and he's dead-on right. Just watch how they're used. If anything, I'd say they're being smart about Pollard/Elliot - they're using Elliot in situations where he's likely to get hit and possibly injured, which makes sense because they're not keeping him after this year. Pollard's friggin' valuable.
#48 by ImNewAroundThe… // Nov 04, 2022 - 11:07am
Very specific definition of end game. Also Zeke has like 7% moee of the snaps despite missing a game.
And in that same video CJ2K was like "nah TP better" but they're using Zeke more because they're gonna keep him? Despite not being under contract and Zeke not exactly being cost free? Ok
#50 by Pat // Nov 04, 2022 - 11:17am
It's just a question of what the run is and how the defense is lined up. Of course Pollard's 4Q YPC is super-high, he's a changeup then (which is exactly what White was saying). And note they didn't increase Pollard's workload significantly when Zeke was out. A bit, yes, but it's not like when Elliot was out suddenly Pollard was getting 70+% snaps or something.
The snap difference between before/after is like 5-10 snaps. In other words, when they lost Elliot, they didn't replace him with Pollard because he's not competing with Elliot on those snaps. They use Elliot differently than they do Pollard, and they're both doing fine. You could argue Pollard needs more of those plays, but again, that's the reason DYAR exists: higher usage at lower efficiency has equal value to the reverse.
Yeah, I agree lots of the rest of that video was weird.
#60 by Dan // Nov 04, 2022 - 3:29pm
Charles had a much bigger role than Pollard, and didn't have trouble until late in his career.
In his first 7 seasons, Jamaal Charles had 3 injuries: an ACL injury which caused him to miss most of a season, a high ankle sprain which caused him to leave a game early & miss the next game, and a concussion which caused him to leave a game in the first quarter. That's it. (He also sat out one rest-your-starters week 17 game, and was inactive with a DNP Coach's Decision one game early in his career.)
He started to have more injury problems in his 8th season, the year he turned 29. You could call that breaking down, but that's what happens to a lot of running backs in their late 20s and beyond.
From when he became a starter midway through his 2nd season, through the end of his 7th season, Charles averaged 15.7 carries (18.7 touches) per game over 74 games and played 70% of the snaps (16.3 carries and 19.4 touches on 71% of snaps over 71 games, if you exclude the 3 games he left early with injuries).
Tony Pollard's career highs are 14 carries and 18 touches, and he's only had 1 game where he played 70+% of the offensive snaps.
#5 by colonialbob // Nov 03, 2022 - 11:19am
"2nd best rushing DVOA team is making dumb decisions around who's rushing the ball" is a take, I guess. Especially when considering a) the Dallas offensive line, while certainly still fine, is a far cry from the dominant unit of 5/6 years ago and b) there's 5 games of Cooper Rush in there, and only 3 with Dak (one of which was easily their worst offensive performance of the season).
And sure Jerrah is a fun quote but let's not pretend that his media sound bytes actually reflect what the Cowboys organizational plan is. I'm not convinced they always reflect what Jerry thinks, much less the rest of the org. I mean, his whole "I'd love a quarterback controversy" thing obviously did not mean they seriously considered sticking with Rush.
#6 by halfjumpsuit // Nov 03, 2022 - 11:28am
Imagine if Justin Fields played quarterback for the New York Jets.
He'd still stink, so we'd be shuffling deck chairs. The Bears could do more to help Fields, but eventually you realize you've been digging to nowhere.
#7 by dbatesman // Nov 03, 2022 - 11:31am
The Jets would at least be 6-2 right now—the Patriots proved two weeks ago that they cannot keep up with Fields—and an existential quarterback crisis would not be ruining their best season in nearly a decade. Fields would be regarded as a star on the rise, his flaws mitigated and his development on a relatively smooth track.
Seems to me Fields is already regarded as a star on the rise. I’m not sure how else one could argue that a guy who’s 35th in DYAR, YAR, DVOA, and VOA, and 34th in EYards, is a squandered resource who just needs more weapons.
#14 by mansteel // Nov 03, 2022 - 12:27pm
Here's how else: talk up a guy before the draft, decry his slide in the first round (perhaps implying or even stating that race issues were involved), lavish praise the Bears for using their 2021 and 2022 picks on him, and then when he isn't good enough to beat out Andy Dalton double down on your stance by saying that Matt Nagy can't see greatness in front of him, then when he throws for one (1) passing yard in his debut and generally stinks it up throughout his rookie season triple down on your stance by blaming the coaching staff, then when a new staff comes in claim that he isn't getting any help. What started out as a reasonable opinion turned into increasingly desperately confirming your priors against all evidence.
#19 by Steve in WI // Nov 03, 2022 - 1:14pm
Because every single one of those metrics is heavily dependent on the QB's supporting cast?
Look, outside of a couple of dumb sports radio callers, I have not heard anyone argue that Fields is a star. What I have heard, and what I would argue myself, is that the Bears went into this season in a very poor position to evaluate Fields and determine how long he'll be the QB of the Bears, due to the extreme lack of talent at WR and offensive line.
I'm just glad that the confluence of the improvements he's made in the last few weeks and the fact that the Bears probably won't be bad enough to get a top 5 draft pick indicate that they will stick with him for 2023 at least which IMHO is the right decision. I am glad they don't yet have to make any long term decisions.
#8 by colonialbob // Nov 03, 2022 - 11:31am
Andrew Luck just retired and left the team in a lurch 38 months ago! Chris Ballard is doing the absolute best any human can possibly do under the circumstances.
Transplant the Lions offensive line anywhere else in the NFL and Tom Brady would look 41 again
And Thomas' nearly $56-million in 2023/2024 cap obligations are just sitting in a Cayman Islands account, waiting for Loomis to sneak out of the country in a Panama hat.
Props for these, though, they're all great.
#9 by Led // Nov 03, 2022 - 11:46am
Fields passing DVOA/Combined DYAR: -41.0%/-292. Wilson passing DVOA/Combined DYAR: -9.0%/+18. I guess Mike thinks that difference (and more, since he thinks the Jets would be *better* with Fields) is entirely due to QB-independent factors. That's possible, but it seems worth engaging with the FO metrics to make the argument.
#16 by Pat // Nov 03, 2022 - 12:42pm
It feels like the comment about Fields is like, a week late or so. Prior to this week I would've said absolutely the Bears are squandering him. You don't take a QB with massive athletic potential who needs to adapt to the NFL in passing (not that he can't pass, but that he has to learn what open means in the NFL) and teach him to be super-cautious. You're just reinforcing his bad habits.
In the past two weeks, though, the Bears have started to change things up quite a bit. I mean, he was super-bad the early part of the season so there's a big hill to climb.
#30 by Noahrk // Nov 03, 2022 - 3:10pm
And we knew he was surrounded with sorry-looking talent, so he should get the benefit of the doubt regardless, although it's really hard to know where to draw the line and say he's not it. Hopefully he'll continue to play better and lay all doubts to rest.
#24 by JonesJon // Nov 03, 2022 - 1:42pm
Fields was atrocious to start the season. The worst QB in the league not named Baker Mayfield. Since Week 4 (Wilson's 1st week) Fields has a higher passer rating, more TDs, less INTs, significantly more rushing yards, and a better completion percentage. He's 14th in EPA/CPOE composite over that time frame among QBs with 125 plays and Wilson is 25th of 27 eligible QBs.
As I said in another comment, anyone actually watching Fields and Wilson play over the past few weeks should be able to see a stark difference between where the two of them are as prospects right now. It is hyperbole to insinuate Fields would be a star but it is just sticking your head in the ground to act like the Jets wouldn't be better if they replaced horrendous QB play with competent QB play
#38 by Kaepernicus // Nov 03, 2022 - 7:40pm
Honestly Zach Wilson is already giving me strong Sam Darnold vibes watching his decision making process. The bad part for the Jets is Darnold was actually playing better through a year and a half with a QBR of 46 vs. 41 as sophmores and 46 vs. 28 as rookies. Those Darnold Jets teams had worse coaching and talent too. Wilson needs to learn how to operate in structure quickly or he is going to be finding a new team soon. If the Jets limp to 8-9 wins in spite of him I could see them going after Jimmy G in FA and trading Wilson to some dumb team for a 2nd.
I think the main thing Mike and others are talking about with Fields is he is clearly improving as the offense has been molded to his skills. He smoked the Patriots with an awful supporting cast and hung 29 points on the Cowboys. This new offense has definitely raised his play level but it has been helped along by a lot of luck. He's fumbled 11 times and only lost 1. Regression to the mean on fumble luck is going to dump this new found success quickly.
In the end neither of them look like potential average starting QBs over the next couple years. Fields is a dollar store version of Kaepernick. He is worse at reading the field, has worse general awareness, and is not as good of a runner. Fields is definitely more accurate and throws a more catchable ball. But his timing is so bad that his accuracy is essentially meaningless in the games. Zach Wilson is the answer to the question "What if Russell Wilson had Jameis Winston's brain?". He has to be the worst QB I have ever seen outside the pocket. He evades like Russell Wilson then goes into Winston mode when he makes a decision.
There are 2 reasons this is a better scenario for the Jets. They only used 1 first round pick on him and he had a high enough prospect pedigree, like Darnold, that they could definitely get good compensation in a trade. I would rather have Fields longer term because he is bigger and has a long history of taking punishment and still playing. Wilson has now missed games due to injury in 4? of his last 5 seasons going back to college. A creative OC could build a decent offense out of Fields ability to run and throw deep passes. That is what they are doing now and they have become much better. Best thing to do with Wilson is push him into an Alex Smith game manager type offense and hope he embraces it. His TO rate is nuts. The whole 2021 QB class looks like it will be pretty terrible. The highest hopes I have in that class is for Lance. The only reason for that is I have seen him the least. He still has to prove he is bad as the rest of the class by actually starting half a season at some point.
#10 by Pat // Nov 03, 2022 - 11:54am
- They simply front-loaded Matt Ryan's contract into this season instead of spreading the misery into 2023;
Bryan Knowles made this same comment on Twitter. It's wrong. Cap space automatically rolls over from year to year now just by the team asking to do so. It's pretty much always rolled over, but teams used to have to pull shenanigans. Now it's just automatic.
There is zero reason to front-load a contract. None. There is no benefit to it whatsoever, other than to ensure that you stay above the minimum spend per season, which obviously no team in the league is remotely close to doing. And obviously with cap growth constrained still due to pandemic pullbacks, there's massive reason to spread forward.
If the Colts want to use their $7M in cap space this year to pay Ryan's contract dead money next year (assuming they release him)... they will. This is not a "self-inflicted wound." It does absolutely nothing harmful to them whatsoever. It's just cap accounting. That's all.
The Browns, for instance, have like $33M in cap space because Watson's contract is backloaded to avoid suspension charges. They're not spending it because it rolls forward, and they'll use it next year when Watson has a bajillion dollar hit.
#11 by Pat // Nov 03, 2022 - 12:04pm
Explicit example, in case this isn't clear.
Case 1: Colts do not convert Ryan's contract, and end up spending $2,615,350 in the remainder of 2022 due to injuries.
- 2022 Ryan cap hit: $24,705,882.
- 2022 end of year cap space: $0.
- 2023 Ryan cap hit (cut): $12,000,000.
- 2023 cap space: $50,782,124
Case 2: Colts do convert Ryan's contract, and end up spending $2,615,350 in the remainder of 2022 due to injuries.
- 2022 Ryan cap hit: $18,705,882
- 2022 end of year cap space: $6,000,000
- 2023 Ryan cap hit (cut): $18,000,000
- 2023 cap space: $50,782,124
It's just dumb accounting tricks. Zero difference to the 2023 cap.
(edited cuz I forgot Ryan had guaranteed salary in '23. The dead cap hits go down/cap space goes up by $12M if Ryan retires rather than is cut, but there probably would be some negotiation)
#12 by Paul R // Nov 03, 2022 - 12:12pm
As God is my witness, I thought J.J. Watt retired.
It's possible any fact related to the Houston football team is always so ineffectual that my brain never bothers to remember it. The only vivid memory I have when I think of Houston is a photo on Twitter of a nearly empty parking lot at the stadium on a game day.
#18 by Phil // Nov 03, 2022 - 12:56pm
I too, was curious enough to "wait and see" but by God, we've seen enough! Every QB looks the same in that offense, and they all throw to the same places. There is no Pickett, no Trubisky, not even Old Ben — there is only Ineffective Matt Canada Quarterback Byproduct. At least Kenny Pickett is willing to run a little bit, which makes him the best option considering the imposed coordinator limitations.
#25 by Steve in WI // Nov 03, 2022 - 2:23pm
I feel like Justin Fields is even more of a squandered resource than we're discussing here, independent of the debate over how good he has a chance to be, simply because of when he was drafted in the Bears timeline. The most valuable resource a team can have is a good QB on a rookie contract. The Bears traded up to draft him at a time when they were already getting threadbare on talent and when most of the remaining good players on the team were either past their prime or not expected to be around for more than a couple more years. Had they cleaned house a year earlier, I suspect a new front office with job security would have passed on a first-round QB and understood they were in a rebuild.
What was their realistic path to competing (truly competing, not just sneaking into the playoffs as a deeply flawed 7 seed) for a Super Bowl any earlier than 2023, no matter what decisions the front office made or how talented Fields turned out to be? On draft day, the best case scenario was squandering 2 of Fields's 4 cheap years.
With what actually happened - Pace/Nagy drafted Fields then going all-in on the status quo instead of the shiny new QB to try to save their jobs, basically wasting a year of Fields's development - and the lack of offensive talent acquisitions prior to 2022 (which are a separate debate...it's possible to argue that Poles did what was best for the team in the long term even if it further delayed Fields's development), I think it's safe to say that the best case scenario for contending is now 2024.
TL;DR 2021 was the wrong time for the Bears to trade a first round pick to draft ANY QB and it's unfortunate that Pace was kept around to do it.
#27 by Raiderfan // Nov 03, 2022 - 2:35pm
Well, the problem is if you try to build a good infrastructure first, you may wind up too good to have high enough draft picks to draft the quarterback, e.g. the Colts. Or you may have the picks, but it is a bad year for quarterbacks, e.g. 2022. Or you may pick the wrong quarterback, e.g. SF. If it was easy, most teams wouldn’t have this problem.
#35 by Steve in WI // Nov 03, 2022 - 5:16pm
All good points. I don't mean to suggest teams should wait until everything else is ideal and then go try to find a QB, but when they are so clearly in a down cycle as the Bears were going into 2021, and that was particularly true on the offensive side of the ball where a certain level of competence is also needed to develop and protect your QB, I would place those Bears as just about the worst team to trade up to get a QB.
Also, on the subject of not having a high enough pick to draft a QB, I would certainly agree that QBs tend to be overdrafted so that guys who should probably be mid to late first round picks go in the top 5 all the time. On the other hand, I looked at the DVOA table for QBs and looking at the top 16 QBs, I count only 5 guys who were top 10 picks and are either playing for the team that drafted them or were traded for significant assets (Tagovailoa, Allen, Goff, Herbert, and Burrow). There are also 5 guys who were essentially on the scrap heap at one point (Garappolo, Smith, Mariota, Brissett, Dalton) who any team could have easily acquired for a lot less than a 1st round draft pick.
Granted, DVOA ranks their performance in the context of the team and I am certainly not arguing that any of the guys in my latter list are great QBs. But what it suggests to me is that we as observers overemphasize the importance of using a top of the 1st round pick on a QB and ignore the fact that there are other options...options that are less likely to pan out, yes, but also are easier to move on from.
#26 by Franchise_Punter // Nov 03, 2022 - 2:24pm
It would be a tremendous waste of resources to have highly drafted/paid receivers out there with a guy who runs into a sack on 15% of his drop-backs.
Ultimately talented wide receivers help you most when the ball's out on time. If you turn everything into a scramble drill because you can't process, it's not gonna help a whole lot. And the Jets' OT situation has been rough.
#34 by macizdyn // Nov 03, 2022 - 4:36pm
Talking to Jerry Jones about running backs is like talking to my mother about the Bible. Mom has an impregnable spiritual head-canon built not from rigorous scriptural study but from quarter-remembered catechism, barely-heard homilies, Italian folk traditions, movies, vivid daydreams, and bits of old Steinbeck and Godfather novels that she has begun to mix up with the gospels.
This is possibly the best humor of Tanier's career... which is a high bar.
#40 by turbohappy // Nov 04, 2022 - 2:49am
Jason Peters is making way less this year than Indy is paying Matt Pryor to look like he doesn't belong in the NFL at a wide range of offensive line positions. Duane Brown is making less than twice as much. This team has other problems, but if they had 5 functional NFL players on the line it would have changed a lot. But the fact they keep rolling him out there when they have other players on the team points to some kind of deep dysfunction that I cannot comprehend.