Mac Jones vs. Bailey Zappe: Dawn of Controversy

NFL Week 9 - Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe are probably not very good quarterbacks.

The New England Patriots and their fans need to embrace that simple fact as a first step on the path to wisdom. Jones and/or Zappe could someday develop into capable, second-quartile, "win-with" starters under the right circumstances. Jones appeared to be on track to become one in 2021, when he finished 12th in DYAR and was prematurely anointed as Tom Brady 2.0 and Anyone Who Claims Otherwise is a Hater. But right now, both are stopgaps who can only win games that the Patriots defense largely wins for them.

Bill Belichick is probably well aware of how limited his quarterbacks are. He just doesn't appear certain what to do about it.

Jones vs. Zappe: How We Got Here

Jones returned to the Patriots lineup on Monday night against the Chicago Bears after missing two starts with a sprained ankle; Zappe led the team to two victories in Jones' absence. Jones looked tentative in the first quarter. The Bears took a 10-0 lead, and the Gillette Stadium fans began a Zappe chant that the television announcers commented upon.

Belichick benched Jones after a winged-quail interception, the quarterback's sixth pick in just 103 attempts. Zappe led the Patriots to 14 points with three (3) meaningful passes:

• A short hot-read floater to Rhamondre Stevenson which netted 20 yards;
• An off-target deep throw against busted coverage that a wide-open Jakobi Meyers made a terrific play on for a touchdown; and
• A 50-50 deep pass to DeVante Parker up the left sideline to set up a second touchdown.

You are free to interpret Zappe's three passes as a brilliant decision in the face of a heavy blitz, an alert throw to an open receiver, and a pinpoint pass to a playmaker. There's some truth to all of those statements. What's undeniable is that Zappe, handed the ball near midfield twice, scored 14 points on three and only three passes, one of which traveled about 20 Air Feet and a second that would have drawn guffaws if Taysom Hill threw it.

Anyway, the Bears came back quickly and the Zappe magic wore out: two interceptions, a fumbled handoff exchange, several passes (including one of the picks) batted at the line, lots of meaningless late-game dumpoffs to Stevenson.

Yet faced with the question of whether Jones or Zappe would start against the Jets in Week 8, Belichick muttered his signature dost thou question me? nonsense:

Belichick AM press conference:

Reporter: If Mac Jones is healthy, is he the starter?

Belichick: "Uhhh, again, that's a hypothetical question. Let's see where that is and what that is."

— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) October 25, 2022

To really understand what's going on, perhaps we should back up a bit further.

The Patriots drafted Jones 15th overall out of Alabama in 2021. He outperformed a creaky Cam Newton in training camp and earned a starting job. He performed well in a heavily childproofed Josh McDaniels offense in his first six starts, then landed in an extremely smooth stretch of schedule. The Patriots outscored six opponents by a combined 211-53 score, then capped the winning streak by defeating the Bills in a wind-tunnel game where Jones threw three passes.

It was during that winning streak that Jones went from a promising rookie benefitting from a great defense/line/system to Belichick's "signal-caller for the next 15 to 18 years." Jones looked great at times during that span, but any NFL-worthy quarterback should look great when frequently given constant leads, great field position, strong protection, and turnovers and points from his defense.

Jones cooled off suddenly after the Airbender game in Buffalo: two interceptions each in back-to-back Colts and Bills losses, two more picks in the playoff rubber match with the Bills. McDaniels left for Las Vegas, Belichick replaced him with the Prodigal Failsons, and Jones entered 2022 as the unchallenged quarterback of the present and future. Zappe, who set a bunch of high-volume passing records against Conference USA competition in a wide-open Western Kentucky offense, was drafted as what appeared to be a fourth-round afterthought.

The Patriots struggled through training camp offensively. With no "official" offensive coordinator required to speak to the media weekly and Belichick cowing reporters with his "Because I'm BATMAN" responses, Jones was left to explain to the media each week why the defense (or opponents in joint sessions) kept stealing the offense's lunch money.

Neither Jones nor Brian Hoyer moved the first-team offense in preseason games. Zappe threw one touchdown and three interceptions in extensive preseason mop-up work.

The Patriots offense continued to sputter in Jones' first three starts. Jones sprained an ankle against the Ravens. Hoyer suffered a concussion early in his lone start against the Packers. Zappe entered and used his telekinesis to force Aaron Rodgers to throw a pick-six. OK, Zappe doesn't have telekinesis. But he kept the overtime loss to the Packers close by handing off a lot, throwing low-protein RPOs, and finding wide-open receivers now and then while the Patriots defense frustrated the easily frustrated Rodgers.

Belichick spent the week leading up to the Lions game hinting that Jones could still play on an ankle that the organization did not deign to acknowledge was sprained. Jones even hobbled onto the field for Friday's practice that week to toss a few passes, standing perfectly stationary, about 100 yards from where the media could get a brief gander at him before being hustled off the field.

It was an embarrassing little pantomime, but it illustrated that less than three weeks ago, Jones was so indispensable that the Patriots acted as if they were in denial about his injury.

So what changed over the course of two games that led to Jones' quick hook on Monday night? Zappe played well in two blowouts of horrendous teams in which he benefited from defensive touchdowns, outstanding field position, gash runs on third-and-long, and all the other stuff that made Jones look like a hero last year. The Patriots appear ready to scrap a year's worth of planning because this year's rookie has done a few things that last year's rookie did to prompt the team to make a year's worth of plans around him.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool Belichick twice? Shame on him.

Bailey Zappe By the Numbers

Let's pause for a few statistics that help explain the Zappe-Jones phenomenon.

The Patriots have enjoyed the third-best average starting field position in the NFL in 2022. They start their average drive at the 30.5-yard line, behind only the Vikings and Ravens.

Jones also enjoyed excellent starting field position in 2021, when the Patriots ranked third in the NFL with drives starting at the 31.2-yard line. Belichick's defenses generally force a high percentage of turnovers. His special teams are typically as optimized as possible. And Belichick still plays "field position football," unpopular as that might be, by punting in situations where analytics say the Patriots should go for it.

The correlation between field position, scoring, and the perception of quarterback play should be obvious.

Zappe has rarely been asked to convert third-and-long. Here are his numbers on third-and-7-plus: 7-of-12, 56 yards, and just two first downs. Per Sports Info Solutions, Zappe has thrown for 53 total air yards on those 12 third-and-long attempts. When you lead the Lions by three scores thanks to a strip-six touchdown and the like, you can afford to just toss a receiver screen on third-and-10, then punt.

Zappe has done most of his damage on first downs: 23-of-31, 333 yards, 10.7 yards per attempt, three touchdowns. This is what you would expect from a novice quarterback executing highly scripted game plans: play-action "take a shot" first-down throws against defenses expecting the run. Incidentally, the Patriots have rushed 65 times on first downs since Week 4, scrambles excluded, which should help put Zappe's 31 first-down passes in better context.

Jones is 9-of-12 for 143 yards, 98 air yards, one interception, two sacks, and five first downs on third-and-long. Jones has struggled in these situations, but he has also been tasked with actually accomplishing something.

Zappe is getting lots of mileage out of one play: the deep left-sideline bomb to DeVante Parker. Parker has caught two deep passes along the left sideline for 72 yards on four targets in Zappe's four games, adding two defensive pass interference penalties (both against the Lions) for 47 yards. For the season, Parker is 4-of-9 for 133 yards on deep-left passes (16-plus air yards, outside the numbers), with those same two penalties.

Parker is a fine boundary jump-ball target. But these are "lottery ticket" plays, usually on early downs: protect the quarterback, give him one read, let the receiver who looks like an action figure make a play. There's nothing wrong with that once in a while, but it's dangerous to build a quarterback hero narrative around running the same play to get the ball to WR1 over and over again and hoping for the best or a flag.

We'd dig deeper into Zappe's numbers, but inevitably we would come face-to-face with this…

Bailey Zappe to Jakobi Meyers for a TD! #ForeverNE

📺: #CHIvsNE on ESPN
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/2HQeNdaFPc pic.twitter.com/sQSRQLKdEo

— NFL (@NFL) October 25, 2022

… and this (look how long the receiver has to wait for the ball)…

I don't get what the Packers were doing here, maybe someone smarter can explain. Looks like disguising cover 2 and then blitzing the safety but then he drops back and the corner lets Agholor go? IDK, but I like Zappe holding the safety high with Parker. Just doesn't have the arm. pic.twitter.com/4uyFVSYcJb

— Pat Pryor (@PryorNFL) October 11, 2022

… and who can forget this fine defensive effort…

.@Hunter_Henry84 is WIDE OPEN for 6️⃣. #ForeverNE

📺: #NEvsCLE on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/pjHIv4VDX8 pic.twitter.com/VN5ul2pNDT

— NFL (@NFL) October 16, 2022

Zappe's small-sample stats are chock full of productive plays which look suspiciously like high school highlights.

Zappe also makes some sharp throws and good decisions. And Matt Patricia and Joe Judge are doing something right to create these open looks. But come the heck on. If you don't see the mirage here, it's because you have chosen to drink sand.

The mirage faded in the second half on Monday night. The game was close, the defense was competent, and Zappe was forced to do real quarterback things.

So why is Belichick waffling between Zappe and Jones?

We're back to the worrisome proposition at the start of this column: Jones was a mirage too, Belichick knows it, and he's not sure how to proceed.

Jones vs. Zappe: The Importance of Messaging

Bill Belichick despises the media. He loves secrecy. And he does anything he can to get a 0.004% competitive edge. So maybe he's just pretending there's a Jones-Zappe controversy to throw the Jets off-guard somehow. Oh no, now we must prepare for two relatively inexperienced pocket touch passers!

All of that tracks, and it explains all the corny stuff before the Lions game. But there's a difference between Belichick assuming that he and the organization are above the media and Belichick assuming that his young quarterbacks are.

Are we pretending that the 24-year-old Jones is ready for the Passion Play-level nonsense that has been going on this season? The home crowd chanting for his replacement? The don't hurry back from the sprain, but be quick messaging? The August of being thrown to the press pool like an assistant shift manager fielding complaints at a Starbucks? All after a rookie year full of Brady 2.0 Hosannas?

Maybe Jones really did become that media savvy at Alabama. Is Zappe supposed to be ready for the same meat grinder?

Belichick may honestly not realize that young quarterbacks aren't robots who can simply "switch off" external noise. The last time he dealt with a young quarterback, social media didn't exist yet.

But perhaps Belichick has always been as skeptical of Jones as, say, Walkthrough has been. The Patriots drafted Zappe, after all. And that three-pass game against the Bills last year may have been evidence of how much stock Belichick really put in Jones' performances during his hot streak. Ditto the Patriots' penchant for fourth-and-short punts and field goals: Belichick is telling us without telling us what he really thinks of his quarterback's chances of executing in crunch situations.

OK, maybe the Patriots were crafting a long-term contingency plan for if/when Jones crashes back to earth. But what we have seen in the last three weeks is not a long-term contingency plan. It's a kneejerk reaction on the fly. Zappe didn't even get serious backup reps in training camp. Jones didn't even get the Dak Prescott we're fine for another week treatment. There is zero evidence of careful Belichickian planning here.

The Patriots look like they are just going with the "hot hand." if that's the case: uh-oh. The Patriots are likely to end up with two "win despite" starters, one of whom cost them a first-round pick, both of them wondering from week to week what First Take will say about Belichick's latest vote of no-confidence in either of them.

Jones vs. Zappe: Clarity and Solutions

Here's Walkthrough's take on what's going on:

• Belichick was indeed skeptical of Jones' success and didn't want to get caught without a failsafe. Hence Zappe.
   
• When the offense sputtered throughout training camp, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge began casting doubts on Jones behind the scenes as a CYA tactic. Please don't pretend this is in any way out of character for them.
   
• Belichick, stretched very thin these days, relies heavily on Beavis and Butt-Head for insight about what's going on day-to-day offensively, so Jones' rough camp and any skullduggery confirmed his skepticism.
   
• Jones is pressing and hesitant because he's expected to truly operate the offense, which is of dubious quality due to the Derpy Boys coaching tandem and a complete lack of pure speed at the skill positions. Zappe looked great executing custom game plans designed around remedial passing concepts, which was all the Patriots needed in his two starts.
   
• The Derpy Boys, who suddenly started looking smart when they got credit for every Zappe completion, are incentivized to press their advantage when advising the boss.

Belichick must now make his first meaningful long-term quarterback decision in 21 years. He is almost certainly aware that neither Jones nor Zappe is Brady. He may not be aware of how much pressure Jones is under to be Brady, or how much pressure Zappe will be under to be Jones. His Patriots are tone deaf to that sort of thing. They're making the kind of mistakes the Jets and Browns have made with young quarterbacks for 20 years: getting caught up in hot streaks, playing backroom politics, letting the crowd sway Caesar's hand. They don't realize they're doing so, because they don't believe they are organizationally capable of such mistakes.

The best way out of this for the Patriots is to reaffirm Jones' status as starter, commit fully and publicly to him, and see what happens for the rest of 2022. Then, for the love all that's sacred, hire a real offensive coordinator. Finally, if not fully satisfied with Jones, trade him while his stock is still high and find someone else to compete with Zappe so the franchise doesn't get stuck in a spiral that leads them further and further from relevance.

Whoever starts in Week 9 and beyond, good riddance to the Jones = Brady storyline. Let's hope we don't just transfer the poised-and-mature gibberish to a youngster even less prepared to cope with it. Everyone—especially the Patriots—will be better off accepting the reality that the quarterback of the future might not be on the current roster.