Time to Take Vikings, Dolphins Seriously
NFL Week 10 - In this NFL Week 10 edition of NFL Walkthrough...
- The Miami Dolphins make their case as the AFC's best team;
- The Dallas Cowboys do what they do best: swoon dramatically in the spotlight;
- Justin Fields fails to beat the Detroit Lions all by himself;
- Matt Ryan returns! Hooray?
- Tom Brady and Geno Smith tackle their skeptics in Munich;
and much more.
But first...
The Minnesota Vikings May Actually Be Good
It's time to take the Minnesota Vikings seriously as Super Bowl contenders.
Yes, that sounds wrong, dear reader. It even feels wrong at a deeply visceral level, like trying to cook your own hand on an open flame, or discussing your porn preferences in public. But we have no choice but to sit up and take notice after the Vikings…
- Defeated the Bills;
- in Buffalo;
- with Josh Allen looking none the worse for wear from his elbow injury;
- in the sleet;
- with a gutsy overtime performance;
- after coming back from a 17-point late-third-quarter deficit;
- Thanks in part—but by no means exclusively because of—a bad, foolish, don't-quote-probabilities-at-me-dear-colleagues (too late) fourth-and-2 conversion attempt by the Bills.
The Vikings faced the toughest test the NFL has to offer in 2022 on Sunday. They passed. It took some guessing on the harder multiple-choice questions and someone pulling the fire alarm in the final minute of regulation, but they passed. In doing so, they answered most of the questions which had persisted while they tiptoed through a schedule full of weak or injury-ravaged opponents.
Kirk Cousins? He was recognizably himself on Sunday: two interceptions; an overtime strip-sack the Vikings were fortunate to recover; a pair of trip-over-a-teammate's-feet flops, one of them when the Vikings tried (and failed) to score a touchdown in the waning seconds. But Cousins also made some big downfield throws to Justin Jefferson and friends and made the most of his late-game opportunities. Cousins is as good as he must be in an NFC where most of the other quarterbacks are either washed up, injured, or feel-good reclamation projects.
The Vikings are balanced on offense and defense. They run the ball well, with Dalvin Cook racing 81 yards off left tackle for a touchdown late in the third quarter to spark their comeback. Newcomer T.J. Hockenson (seven catches, 45 yards) has added YAC opportunities in the flat and over the middle that Irv Smith Jr. did not really provide. Danielle Hunter and Za'Darius Smith are a formidable pair of bookend edge rushers. Patrick Peterson (two interceptions on Sunday) is enjoying a late-career renaissance. The Vikings play sound field-position football and generally avoid penalties; as a team loaded with veterans, there's a good chance that they will continue to succeed in those areas.
And Jefferson? He makes 32-yard jump balls on fourth-and-18 with the game on the line in the fourth quarter and 24-yard sideline snares on third-and-10 in overtime look routine.
Re-read the names listed above. Add Adam Thielen, Christian Darrisaw, Brian O'Neill, Jordan Hicks, and Harrison Smith to the list. What NFC team has better talent? The Eagles, sure. Maybe the Cowboys. Maybe the Buccaneers. Possibly the 49ers. That's it, unless you count Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp four times each.
We ignore the Vikings because they are familiar. But the current NFC is unfamiliar territory. The Vikings are a veteran team that's not an over-the-hill team. That gives them an edge over the up-and-comers playing at the ceiling of their capabilities (Giants, Seahawks) and the League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (Buccaneers, Packers, Rams) trying to gather themselves together after falling down a flight of stairs.
Replay Bills-Vikings a dozen times and the Bills probably go about 9-3, whether by kicking a field goal on fourth-and-2, not fumbling at the 1-inch line in the waning seconds of regulation, recovering that overtime fumble or reversing a half-dozen other high-leverage plays. But the Vikings don't have to be as good as the Bills to win the NFC. They just need to be able to hang tough with the Cowboys (next week's opponent) and Eagles (Week 2 has not been forgotten) so that Jefferson, Cook, and the edge rushers can be difference-makers when it matters.
The Vikings proved they were good enough to beat anyone on Sunday. Like it or not, we cannot keep pretending that they don't really matter, or that they aren't even really there.
Game Spotlight: Green Bay Packers 31, Dallas Cowboys 28 (OT)
What Happened: You saw it coming, right? The inevitable Cowboys dramatic swoon? Oh come on: the Cowboys live for nationally televised soap-operatic silliness! The fact that the Packers are scuffling this year just added to the juiciness of the drama: it turned the game into sexy Cowboys-versus-Cowboys action!
Dak Prescott threw two second-quarter interceptions that led to Packers touchdowns. He also threw three touchdowns to give the Cowboys a 28-14 third-quarter lead. So all the Cowboys needed to do to secure a win was cover rookie wide receiver Christian Watson on an "over" route on fourth-and-7 and…
2nd TD of the day for Christian Watson! #GoPackGo
📺: #DALvsGB on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/rSmBWilFeT pic.twitter.com/cA3fvHrLYJ— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2022
OK, well, as long as Watson doesn't score his third touchdown of the game on an almost identical route or anything…
Christian Watson hat trick! @ChristianW2017
📺: #DALvsGB on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/rSmBWilFeT pic.twitter.com/gMfuwVll6g— NFL (@NFL) November 14, 2022
Sigh. Off to overtime we went, where the Cowboys drove to the Packers 35-yard line and opted to go for it on fourth-and-4 instead of attempting a long field goal. Prescott was flushed from the pocket and threw a wobbly incompletion. One 36-yard Aaron Rodgers-to-Allen Lazard catch-and-run later, the Packers had a desperately needed victory.
What It Means: Sunday provided a showcase of all the things that make Cowboys fans pull their hair out: the extreme Prescott mini-slump, someone named DaRon Bland getting toasted by a fellow rookie, an overtime decision on fourth down that many models weren't crazy about and fed into the weaknesses of the Mike McCarthy/Kellen Moore play-calling cabal. Sunday's loss drops the Cowboys to 6-3 overall and 5-3 in the NFC, with losses against the Packers, Buccaneers, and Eagles that could cause real playoff tiebreaker headaches.
The Packers got the huge game from a rookie receiver they have craved since the season started, a two-interception step-up effort by Rudy Ford for their depleted defense, and fine results from the run-heavy game plan that fans have been clamoring for all year. They also won their first game since October 2 on a day when the Vikings did almost the same darn thing against a much tougher opponent, so let's not throw any Pack Are Back parades just yet.
What's Next: The Packers face the Titans in a game that will likely feature at least 30 punts. The Cowboys can do the Packers another favor when they visit the Vikings.
Around the League
Short takes on most of Sunday's games.
Miami Dolphins 39, Cleveland Browns 17
Are the Dolphins secretly the best team in the NFL? Let's examine the evidence:
- They beat the Bills and Ravens.
- Their three losses occurred when Tua Tagovailoa was injured for all or part of the game.
- They pummeled a non-terrible Browns team on Sunday; the game really wasn't close after a sprightly opening Browns drive.
- They got better at the trade deadline, with Jeff Wilson rushing for 119 yards on Sunday and Bradley Chubb contributing a half-sack to an upgraded pass rush.
- Seriously: look at Tagovailoa's DVOA. Yes, it's Tyreek Hill-/Jaylen Waddle-inflated, but those two aren't going anywhere or getting any easier to cover.
The Dolphins are entering their bye, then Bye 2.0 against the Texans, followed by a West Coast swing against the 49ers and Chargers. We'll know exactly where they stand by the time they face the Bills again. But there's a good chance they will stand at 10-3.
Indianapolis Colts 25, Las Vegas Raiders 20
One of these teams played as if its much-respected head coach was just fired and replaced by someone the owner spotted at a memorabilia expo. That team was NOT the Colts. The Raiders were without Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, but that doesn't explain the pillow-fight effort by their defense or their general malaise against a team that probably would have surrendered if the Raiders had come out swinging.
It was lovely to see Matt Ryan again; Sam Ehlinger's extended starting stint was the by-product of a Chris Ballard/Frank Reich spitting contest, not anything resembling a real effort to win football games. Ryan remains washed, but he deserves better than a political benching for a horrendous alternative.
We're one Colts victory away from fawning profiles of how Jeff Saturday turned the Colts culture around by playing different music in the weight room or moving the ping pong table. Fortunately, the Colts face the Eagles in Week 11.
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 17
The Chiefs took a 20-0 lead, but the Jaguars nearly came back on a quick touchdown before halftime followed by what looked like a touchdown to Evan Engram to cap a long drive to start the third quarter. Cam Robinson was flagged for being too far downfield on Engram's touchdown, however, and the Jaguars settled for a field goal that allowed the Chiefs to regain control of the game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster got knocked out of the game in the second quarter by a vicious helmet-to-helmet hit from Andre Cisco. The injury bears watching, as JuJu has emerged as one of Patrick Mahomes' most reliable intermediate targets.
Otherwise, the Chiefs remain the Chiefs. The Jaguars? They will turn into the Chiefs any day now … really, we swear … Trevor Lawrence is ALMOST Mahomes, take every early adopter's word for it … whatever. The Jaguars are going on bye so we can safely ignore them for a spell.
Pittsburgh Steelers 20, New Orleans Saints 10
The Steelers got T.J. Watt back, which helped Alex Highsmith notch a pair of sacks. The Saints were without Marcus Maye, Marcus Lattimore, Marquez Calloway, Mark "Marcus" Ingram, Andrus (almost a palindrome of Marcus, but not really) Peat, and all the usual financial tapeworms. The result was a game that only the Marquis De Sade could have enjoyed. The Steelers outplayed the Saints all day but missed a pair of field goals and got sloppy on defense just before halftime.
Najee Harris rushed 20 times for 99 yards, with a 46-yard run to set up a first-half field goal. For those of you who don't follow Steelers talk-radio logic: the Dedicated Boomers of Western Pennsylvania turned on Harris as soon as Chase Claypool was traded, because the steel mill-'n'-pierogies crowd always blames the Steelers' biggest-name skill-position player for all the team's woes. (None of them are enough like Rocky Bleier for their tastes.)
Harris has earned a one-week reprieve by keeping the chains moving on Sunday: if the Steelers lose to the Bengals for any reason next week (four-interception Kenny Pickett meltdown, seven missed field goals, Ja'Marr Chase floats down from heaven with lightning coursing through his body), it will be Harris' fault.
Tennessee Titans 17, Denver Broncos 10
Seventeen total punts, exactly two plays worthy of the title "offensive highlight." Titans games are Pop Warner scrimmages played by the light of pickup-truck high-beams in a steady downpour, and Mike Vrabel likes it that way.
Jerry Jeudy suffered what looked like a serious ankle injury. The Broncos may somehow get worse offensively in the weeks to come. At least the Broncos won't be on prime time for another month.
New York Giants 24, Houston Texans 16
Team with minimal talent but outstanding coaching defeats team with minimal talent and minimal coaching in a game which was exactly as close as the score: the Texans spent the entire fourth quarter marching deep into Giants territory and either committing turnovers or settling for field goals. The Texans cannot stop the run at all, so the Giants were content to let Saquon Barkley go 35-152-1 and play keepaway.
The Texans officially decommissioned Brandin Cooks as a team captain (Cooks received a field demotion last week for going AWOL before the trade deadline) then targeted him seven times on Sunday, not counting a touchdown pass which was negated by a penalty. Based on the shenanigans surrounding Cooks, the defrocking of Cardinal Richelieu Easterby last month was just another symptom of the Texans dysfunction, not the cure, and things could still somehow get worse.
Detroit Lions 31, Chicago Bears 30
The Bears led 24-10 when an apparent Jared Goff interception got negated by a (rather tacky) penalty, with the Lions scoring a touchdown on the next play. Justin Fields then threw a pick-six to Jeff Okudah after a 19-yard Khalil Herbert run was negated by a holding penalty. A dazzling 67-yard streak by Fields was followed by a missed extra point, allowing the Lions to win on a crisp late 91-yard drive.
Overall, the Bears were penalized nine times for 86 yards, the Lions twice for 15 yards. Kudos to the Lions for playing mistake-free football and winning back-to-back divisional games. But Dan Campbell has dug a pretty deep ditch of skepticism to climb out of, and the Lions looked poised to collapse before they got a few penalty breaks. A win over the Giants next week would help signal the end of the forever-rebuilding plan.
It sounds as though Bears fans have talked themselves into thinking Luke Getsy is doing a great job as an offensive coordinator. Folks, most of the Bears offense comes from Fields read-options and Fields scrambles. Entering Sunday's game, Fields led the NFL with 433 scramble yards, per Sports Info Solutions. Josh Allen was second with 270 yards. Fields has more yards on just scrambles than any Bears receiver has on receptions.
Getsy does scheme up some opportunities for Fields to throw on the run, but let's get real: the Bears are not doing what the Ravens or Eagles do, they are just hoping Fields keeps making plays with his legs. Most weeks, that will just make the Bears offense good enough to lose.
Game Spotlight: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21, Seattle Seahawks 16
What Happened: The Geno is a Fluke narrative narrowly defeated the Brady is Washed narrative on a mucky field in Munich.
In fairness, Geno Smith did not look all that fluky. Or maybe he looked especially fluky, saving all his highlights for after the Buccaneers took a 21-3 fourth-quarter lead after failing to move the ball for the entire first half. And Tom Brady did not look all that washed up, except when he lined up at wide receiver (Burn This Play was a no-brainer this week), and perhaps when he threw a fourth-quarter interception to leaping linebacker Cody Barton to ignite the Geno magic.
By the way, where you fall on the Brady is Washed/Geno is a Fluke punnett square says a lot about who you are as a person:
Brady is not washed and Geno is no fluke. You have the proper "everything is awesome" attitude for watching the 2022 NFL. But if you also believe Aaron Rodgers is a totally normal human, please seek help.
Brady is washed but Geno is no fluke. You crave change. New heroes! Redemption arcs! Who doesn't? Just be advised that the Geno saga is already veering into "moral victory" territory.
Geno is a fluke but Brady is not washed. OK, boomer. Go write a letter to the editor of your print newspaper about how women wearing yoga pants in public is causing the downfall of societal values.
Brady is washed and Geno is a fluke. Your heart is a charred cinder and you have lost the capacity to feel joy. The support group meeting is on Tuesdays at 7 p.m. Walkthrough brings the stale bagels, which we will leave to rot in the church basement while we reassure each other that we are right.
Anyway, the team with more top-to-bottom talent won this game by being better in the trenches and in coverage for most of the game.
What It Means: The Seahawks pass defense lacks the personnel to cover the middle of the field. This fact was masked for over a month by the fact that they faced the Cardinals twice (Kliff Kingsbury doesn't think downfield passing properly volumizes his hair), the Giants (no receivers), and the Chargers (no receivers, no offensive line, plays called by Fake Sean Payton.)
Brady remains perfectly capable of standing in a clean pocket and finding wide-open receivers in the 10- to 20-yard range. The Buccaneers are stout enough on defense and gifted enough at wide receiver (especially with Julio Jones as a third or fourth option and tight end Cade Otton developing) to beat most NFC middleweights. The NFC consists almost entirely of middleweights. And the Bucs will wrap the season with Cardinals-Panthers-Falcons. This is what playoff teams look like in 2022.
What's Next: Long flights back to the states, then byes.
Week 10 Awards
Fans of ancient quarterbacks running up the sidelines, this is the moment you have been waiting for!
Defender of the Week
Patrick Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: two interceptions, one to turn the game around in the fourth quarter, one to end it in overtime.
Offensive Line of the Week
The much-maligned Indianapolis Colts line of Bernhard Raimann, Quenton Nelson, Ryan Kelly, new starter Will Fries, (mmmm, fries) and Braden Smith helped Jonathan Taylor and company rack up 207 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Matt Ryan was sacked just once.
Does this prove Jeff Saturday is a great head coach? No, but it's part of an ever-mounting body of evidence against Josh McDaniels.
Special Teamer of the Week
From now on, Titans punter Ryan Stonehouse will always be Special Teamer of the Week if…
- The Titans win;
- he punts five or more times; and
- he averages 50.0 or more yards per punt.
Stonehouse punted eight times on Sunday; averaged 54.0 yards per punt; nailed a 72-yarder; pinned the Broncos at the 4-, 6- and 8-yard lines early in the game; and also drilled three kickoffs for touchbacks.
Honorable mention goes to Nick Niemann of the Chargers for partially blocking a 49ers punt in the late game, setting up a Chargers field goal. That's what you get for punting on fourth-and-1, Kyle Shanahan.
Best Supporting Actor in Someone Else's Highlight
Matt Ryan scrambled for 39 yards on one run on Sunday and…
Wait.
(checks pulse)
(takes Breathalyzer)
(reports to hospital for full toxicology report)
Yes, Matt Ryan really did scramble for 39 yards against the Raiders. Surprised? So were Rock Ya-Sin (26), Sam Webb (27), and Amik Robertson (21):
Matt Ryan 39-yard run? Matt Ryan 39-yard run! @M_Ryan02
📺: #INDvsLV on CBS
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/BOnQEreYOl pic.twitter.com/6CY1XbufRW— NFL (@NFL) November 13, 2022
Heck of an effort by Robertson jogging after Ryan, right? And bonus points to South Jersey's own Duron Harmon (30) for somehow getting juked by Ryan along the sideline at the end of the run. Harmon takes his role as washed-up ex-Patriots binkie defender seriously.
Let's erase the sight of Matt Ryan running for significant yardage out of our eyes and hearts, shall we? Paging Justin Fields!
More @justnfields magic 🪄
📺: #DETvsCHI on FOX pic.twitter.com/x6NWyTymbI
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) November 13, 2022
That's Aidan Hutchinson (97) getting juked, Isaiah Buggs (96) not quite wrapping Fields up and DeShon Elliott (5) getting flattened at the end of the run. But John Cominsky (79) shares the BSASEH with the Raiders bunch for doing none of those things but running back and forth in the backfield and hoping Fields crashes into him.
But hey, the Lions won, so let's wrap this with one more BSASEH: Alex Anzalone (34) fails to wrap Fields up twice on this critical fourth-down play late in the fourth quarter. Fortunately, Julian Okwara (99) finishes the job.
.@julian_okwara delivered the fourth-down sack 😤#DETvsCHI | 📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/dYWz4aUhpY
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) November 13, 2022
Burn This Play!
Let's have our running back throw it to the middle aged guy running up the boundary on a muddy field: no one will see it coming!
But wait! We ran a direct snap play earlier in the same drive, and our quarterback was not covered at all. That means an experienced defensive coach like Pete Carroll might see it coming. So maybe we should not ask the 45-year-old who runs like the third-place finisher in a senior citizen's 5K to pretend he's OBJ on a slippery field...
Okay, what just happened?! 👀
Fournette was aiming for Brady, but @_Tariqwoolen intercepts it! #Seahawks
📺: #SEAvsTB on @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/M32DOvVAld pic.twitter.com/xEIpUusNmM— NFL (@NFL) November 13, 2022
Leave that one off your head coaching sizzle reel, Byron Leftwich.
Rando of the Week
Ever wonder what happened to Crow T. Robot after Mystery Science Theater 3000 went off the air (and it's Netflix reboot got booted?) Why, he pulled a Hasselhoff, rebranded himself "Cro" and became a superstar in Germany! Here's ol' Cro putting on a show before the Bucs-Seahawks game:
Super Bowl-like pregame entertainment — Germany’s own @thisiscro performing before Bucs-Seahawks in Munich. Kickoff in 15 minutes or so. pic.twitter.com/YWUUX2i299
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) November 13, 2022
Wait, that's not a lovable robo-puppet, it's some techno singer in a Batman hazmat suit! The cheerleaders and drum majors on the field look just as confused as the rest of us. But look, that's just how they do it in Europe. Every singer is a Masked Singer.
Roger Goodell threatens promises more games in Germany in the near future. We'll get a Scorpions halftime show yet, true believers.
Comments
166 comments, Last at 15 Nov 2022, 4:45pm
#1 by Theo // Nov 14, 2022 - 3:05am
For those of you who don't follow Steelers talk-radio logic: the Dedicated Boomers of Western Pennsylvania turned on Harris as soon as Chase Claypool was traded, because the steel mill-'n'-pierogies crowd always blames the Steelers' biggest-name skill-position player for all the team's woes.
For those who dont watch Steeler football:
Najee Harris has been awful this season, religiously running into piles of human for 2 yards.
His backup has done better with the opportunities given.
But remember football writers logic:
It is illegal to complain about the Steelers, because they have won many superbowls, 3 coaches since '69 and Tomlin NHALS.
#64 by Theo // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:41am
Sorry, I wasnt aware about the intricacies of the American way of crital thinking...
who massages my monkey brain the best on the radio.
Thanks.
So I understand Tanier only diagrees that Harris is a problem just because he is the highest profile player now?
What is the argument then?
It isnt Harris, its the oc?
Its the rotation?
Its the qb?
It actually is Harris, but not for reasons the radio callerz say its for?
I say he was a misjudged pick, mis and overused and he is just another powerful back that lacks vision/needs a lot of coaching.
#10 by Otis Taylor89 // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:06am
Unfortunately for them they still have Kirk Cousins at QB. Cousins is lucky he's throwing to the best WR in the NFL right now because what I saw yesterday, throwing it straight to the other team, etc., is the Kirk Cousins that will always implode.
#17 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:52am
I will give Cousins this -- he's dauntless.
That results in some amazingly boneheaded plays, but also lets him keep standing in the pocket as the Bills collapse his line and threaten his life on basically every play.
Josh Allen is in many ways a faster version of this.
#3 by Shylo // Nov 14, 2022 - 4:52am
Assuming you mean the exactly two offensive highlight plays being the Broncos TD off blown coverage and the Titans flea flicker TD, I would like to submit a Cortland Sutton third down conversion catch as a qualified offensive highlight. Sadly I cannot find a video of it on Twitter but I'm sure it's in the YouTube edited version of the game.
#94 by reddwarf // Nov 14, 2022 - 1:02pm
On a day with several spectacular catches in games that mattered, hard to get too excited about that one.
This Broncos team is far from the worst I've endured in the last 50 years, but it may be the most absolutely frustrating to watch (boy was I wrong how this season was going to go; I never bought into the Super Bowl contender hype, but I thought they would at least be entertaining for the first time in a few years, instead we get...this). Can't remember the last time I wanted to throw something at the TV so hard.
Never been less excited about an upcoming Raiders/Broncos game in my life.
#144 by Shylo // Nov 14, 2022 - 5:31pm
That's true, I did comment at the time that it'd likely be forgotten because the game would likely end 13-10 but even as an opposing fan I had to applaud that one.
At this point Russell Wilson is self parody but he's still heart attack inducing since he plays like he can still heroball and you never know if he'll get the deep one, scramble for a first down, or draw a DPI, but he just kind of gives up and takes a sack if he's moved off his spot a lot of the time.
#151 by reddwarf // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:37pm
But I'm not sure he's the biggest problem. He got KILLED this week. Last time I saw a QB take a beating like that was Brady against the Broncos in the 2015 playoffs (and, uh, Tennessee's defense is not of the same caliber). Did you know the Titans were missing 5 defensive starters? The announcers mentioned it about a billion times. While rarely noting Denver was down 5 offensive starters after the first play of the game, and 6 for most of the second half. And that only counts the center position once. 3rd string center, backups at both tackles (3rd stringer out there as well by the end of the game, actually), missing 3 of the top 4 receivers (only counting two of those injuries as missing starters since 3 WR is the base set) after Jeudy went down on the first offensive play, starting running back out...and I haven't even gotten to Hackett yet. Who, infuriatingly, still seems to be trying to use a notably difficult to learn offense the team hasn't run since Kubiak left when the players change every damn week because of injury.
If I was Russ I'd give up on every play after 1.5 seconds too (he has to start moving off his spot at 1 second)...there's NOTHING there. Can't run, can't pass protect, and preseason players/street free agents/recent trades at most of the skill positions so the timing is shot to hell even on those rare occasions where they all manage to make the same read on the defense...Again, not excusing the fact he has been bad as well. But this has been a real season of "if it can go wrong, it will" for Denver's offense.
Missing 4 starters on defense due to injury to boot (not counting Chubb as he was traded), which as far as I can tell was completely ignored. Why yes, part of my desire to throw things at the TV this game was in fact those announcers reminding us every series how many Titans were injured and I'm feeling a bit salty about it.
#145 by theslothook // Nov 14, 2022 - 5:36pm
I read some interesting stats about this Broncos team.
That if they had averaged 18 pts in regulation on offense, they would be 8-1.
That somehow, in all their years as a franchise, they are on pace for the lowest scoring output over a season ever for a Broncos team.
I simply never imagined a universe where the Broncos offense would be this bad for this long. Its really hard to understand.
#153 by reddwarf // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:55pm
The last few years you knew the offense sucked. This year, you can ALMOST see it working almost every week. There's no consistency but there are plays to be made. And despite everything, they are literally a couple plays a game from the story being "look what Hackett and Wilson have done in Denver" in a GOOD way. 5 of 6 losses (and 3 of 3 wins, to be fair) by one score. 5 of 6 losses where they had the ball in the last few minutes in opposition territory and couldn't QUITE manage it. If Hackett doesn't go for a 64 yard FG in week 1 when the team was feeling it...or completely screw up clock management in week 2...if Wilson made the right read/throw against the Colts in OT...if they made one of about a half dozen plays against the Chargers...Even the 6th loss was a one score game well into the 4th quarter. It would be a bit of a mirage to have a better record (in the Guts vs Stomps way), but you could say it's a bit of a mirage that it's this bad too.
Then you come to this site and see they have been top 15 in DVOA most of the season (all but one week, I believe, though probably a second week outside that range tomorrow).
So...damn...frustrating.
#4 by big10freak // Nov 14, 2022 - 6:48am
Few observations:
—Engabare isn’t Gary but he does enough. For a fifth round rookie definitely no complaints
—Savage trying to strip the ball on a 4th down qb sneak vs just, you know, tackling the runner is Savage captured in a single play.
—Kenny Clark was physically on the field but this is now several games without making his presence felt. Concerning
—Thought the o line did a heckuva job
—boy if Amari Rodgers is returning punts Thursday then management really does not belong in its role. The player has as many lost fumbles as passes caught in his career.
#5 by Will Allen // Nov 14, 2022 - 7:38am
The Bills are obviously a good team, and Allen obviously a very upper tier qb, but fer' the 'luv of Rex Grossman, that boy does a lot of dumbass stuff while being the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills. Also does a lot of amazing stuff. Makes them very hard to evaluate.
The Vikings? Well, they are significantly better than they were a month ago. Mostly attributable to Danielle Hunter starting to have his typical productivity, the o-line steadily improving, and trading for a good tight end. They're still an injury or two from going over the falls, however, and they continue to have good luck in other ways. On the other hand, it was the 2nd week in a row the refs gifted the opposition on a long pass in a high leverage situation. Vikings are hard to evaluate, too
#16 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:49am
The Bills are obviously a good team, and Allen obviously a very upper tier qb, but fer' the 'luv of Rex Grossman, that boy does a lot of dumbass stuff while being the quarterback of the Buffalo Bills. Also does a lot of amazing stuff. Makes them very hard to evaluate.
Josh Allen is currently living in the sequel film in a superhero franchise. In the first film, he started off as some schmo who secretly develops super-powers and just curbstomped the entry-level big bad. Now he's trying to sort out when and how to use them, and struggling with it, and his enemies now know what they are facing and have adjusted.
Hopefully this is being directed by the Russos rather than the Wachowskis.
#34 by mehllageman56 // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:48am
If you're a Bills fan, you don't want it directed by either the Russos or the Wachowskis. The Russos did Infinity War, in which the heroes lose and half the universe dies. The Wachowskis did the Matrix trilogy (there's a rumor about a fourth one being completed, but I don't believe it), where the main couple dies. (Spoilers).
#41 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:10am
The Wachowskis did the Matrix trilogy (there's a rumor about a fourth one being completed, but I don't believe it), where the main couple dies. (Spoilers).
The 4th Matrix movie is like an End of Evangelion movie -- it's not so much an addition as it is an iterative retcon of a horrible, horrible mistake*. The 4th film is basically a redo of the 2nd and 3rd films.
\* Americans catch a lot of flak for not understanding foreign cultures. Acknowledged. Now watch the original End of Evangelion and witness the Japanese take on Catholicism.
#114 by macizdyn // Nov 14, 2022 - 2:38pm
...when "true" Steelers fans lamented the softness of Franco Harris running out of bounds, not showing the true manhood of Rocky Bleier. Tanier's take is an actual thing in Pittsburgh. The ultimate tough guy would bowl over 3 tacklers for a 2 yard gain and then leap into a running wood chipper.
#8 by johonny // Nov 14, 2022 - 8:32am
By hook or by crook, Miami has somehow stumbled into an oline configuration that is working. Tua's main weakness the past two years was that he was so easy to pummel behind a terrible oline. Tua was relatively clean and the run holes were gaping. Not sure how Wilson got so buried in SF, but he looks quick and powerful. Defense needs Jones back, not sure that happens, though.
#11 by fyo // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:28am
If by "working" you mean "features a center who cannot snap and a left tackle who cannot practice", sure. At least they replaced the "left guard who cannot block", albeit through injury.
Snarky retorts aside, I don't disagree. There seem to be a lot fewer totally unblocked defenders coming through and Armstead at left tackle is really anchoring that line.
I wouldn't give too much credit to the line for the run blocking against the Browns, though. The Browns are really bad against the run. Texans are pretty bad as well, so let's wait until the 49ers game to see if they can actually do something against a decent run D.
#50 by Kaepernicus // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:23am
Wilson was about to be behind CMC and Elijah Mitchell. He was about to be relegated to 3rd RB in a rotation where CMC is the clear 3rd down RB. This was actually a solid from John Lynch so Wilson could go have a big role on a contender. He is a good RB because he is literally average at everything. No real hole in his game other than ball security. Having no real weaknesses is a big positive that gets overlooked. He is also a perfect fit for the MIA blocking scheme and has a great relationship with McDaniel from the last 4 years. It's a win-win trade in my book.
#82 by James-London // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:09pm
Fro one reason and another, I haven't seen very much football this season, and yesterday was the first time I's seen Miami. The difference from last is astonishing. I know the Browns D is terrible, but the last ime I saw a Dolphins offense that functional Jay Fiedler was handing off to Ricky Williams. I don't know if it lasts, I don't know if the O-line regresses, and Idon't know if this means Tua's worth £50M a year on a new deal, but God it was fun to watch...
#166 by KnowGuruz // Nov 15, 2022 - 4:45pm
^ He was number 3 due to Eli Mitchell and Christian McCaffrey
He is a very good back that is loved by 49ers and has a good top speed to him. However, it takes him a little to get there. Doesnt happen after one cut and he definitely has (had?) Some fumbling issues
#9 by Joey-Harringto… // Nov 14, 2022 - 8:45am
"The Bears led 24-10 when an apparent Jared Goff interception got negated by a (rather tacky) penalty"
Trinity Benson got Road Housed (punched in the throat) on that play. So maybe not technically hands to the face, but in real time, I can see how that call was made.
I'm not disputing Goff's negated interception was horrific and the Lions were fortunate to win this game.
#12 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:36am
But Dan Campbell has dug a pretty deep ditch of skepticism to climb out of
No.
Jonesing gamblers who decided frisky was the same as good decided to go all-in on the Lions at least a year too early, despite everyone with even a passing familiarity with the team telling them in no uncertain terms to not do so. It's not Dan Campbell's fault you took the under on the number of times the scorpion would sting.
Campbell inherited a job that was at the bottom of a well inhabited by a Japanese revenge demon. That you can even see daylight means he's been digging up.
#15 by Joey-Harringto… // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:43am
Hard Knocks really hurt Campbell's public perception, in that it raised expectations to ridiculous highs. Coming into the season, I was looking at 6 or 7 wins and signs of player development to be a reasonable goal. Yes, the Daboll Giants are blowing away their own low expectations, but FO's own numbers suggest they've had some very good fortune (coming into the week, the Giants have 3.9 estimated wins, compared to the Lions 3.8).
#78 by serutan // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:54am
It's not Dan Campbell's fault you took the under on the number of times the scorpion would sting.
And given the Lions have actually won games in the first half of this season as opposed to none the first half of last season, it is difficult to conclude anything other than they have improved this season. After all, bad is an upgrade over terrible.
#159 by Joey-Harringto… // Nov 15, 2022 - 9:01am
"it is difficult to conclude anything other than they have improved this season. After all, bad is an upgrade over terrible."
Even aside from W-L, they had a -30% DVOA at this point last year, and this year they are at -4.9% (pending adjustments after Monday Night)
#58 by Kaepernicus // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:34am
Going into that game I thought Saturday was going to be terrible because I assumed the assistant coaches who were overlooked would essentially sabotage the season out of spite. Only way it could be successful is if Jeff is legitimately a good leader. Honestly what I saw in that game reminded me a lot of the play bump the 49ers got when they made Singletary the interim after a terrible 4 year stretch with Nolan at the helm. It will be interesting to watch the rest of the season unfold. I have a feeling, after seeing the visceral reactions from Cowher and Joe Thomas, that a lot of coaches are going to circle Colts match ups and try to pound them into the dirt out of principle. Tomlin and McCarthy seem like the type of HC that could make it a point to embarrass them. Either way I am interested in the Colts. No way that sentence is valid if Reich is still the HC.
#96 by JoelBarlow // Nov 14, 2022 - 1:18pm
a stupid and nonsensical hire, but also a welcome (potential) respite
is there any profession in America less worthy of worship and praise than head football coach
ah yes... this former Coach's 35 year old son-in-law who has only worked in this industry since puberty has nuggets of wisdom and insight unknowable to the common man...
#134 by Kaepernicus // Nov 14, 2022 - 3:43pm
In my decently long consulting run in data science I have seen 1 title pop up 3 times where the person was related to the founder/C-suite exec of choice every time. Senior Vice President of Innovation. Every time it was some moron related to an important person up the chain. Not one of them was any good at anything related to the job. Those jobs were essentially repeated stupid software POCs with a side of journey maps for him and his buddies to divine future trends from by extrapolating dashboard aggregates to 5 million other clients. One of them was Brian Ferentz level pathetic.
#14 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:42am
Ever wonder what happened to Crow T. Robot after Mystery Science Theater 3000 went off the air (and it's Netflix reboot got booted?)
They went to a subscription model.
https://www.gizmoplex.com/browse
the Dedicated Boomers of Western Pennsylvania turned on Harris as soon as Chase Claypool was traded, because the steel mill-'n'-pierogies crowd always blames the Steelers' biggest-name skill-position player for all the team's woes. (None of them are enough like Rocky Bleier for their tastes.)
Point of order!
Rocky Bleier was never the Steelers' biggest-name skill-position player. Even in his best season (1976), he wasn't the biggest-name running back in his own backfield (Harris was).
\when did pfr get video ads?
#22 by RickD // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:06am
I don't think Bleier's name was invoked out of the belief that he was ever more than Franco Harris's backup. The idea is that the local fans loved him because he was a hardscrabble, rough-and-tumble, 110%-effort giving stereotype of a relatively untalented player who always left everything on the field.
#26 by Will Allen // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:18am
The fact that he lost part of his foot to a grenade blast, in a firefight in Vietnam, needing about 100 pieces of shrapnel removed, then spent a couple years hanging on to his football career, as he regained athleticism, before becoming a starter, sorta' burnished that image
(edit) To be more clear, he was a starter, not a backup, beginning in '74, and had a season when he rushed for 1000 yards. Two rb offenses were standard.
#62 by Kaepernicus // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:37am
It's a joke about my Cowboys fan uncle from rural MO who thinks they are better with Cooper Rush. When pressed about why he can only speak in platitudes about subjective feelings he has and his record as a starter.
#18 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:55am
an overtime decision on fourth down that many models weren't crazy about and fed into the weaknesses of the Mike McCarthy/Kellen Moore play-calling cabal
I don't hate passing on a 53-yard FG into the wind when it's below freezing.
Basically, you'd have roasted him for the opposite reason had he gone for the FG and failed, so it's the failure you are taunting, not the decision.
#25 by Pat // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:17am
I hate the "many models weren't crazy about" part. ESPN's model had it at 60% with rounding to a percent for both choices. So not going for it when the model says it's better by 1% is terrible, but going for it when the model says it's worse by less than 1% is "oh, why are you doing that"?
I super-duper hate 4th down bots doing FG vs go for it models on the edge of field goal range. Field goal success rates don't smoothly fall off with distance, they disappear in a few yards once you hit the kicker's range. You don't see it because coaches don't go for it outside of a kicker's range, so you see it smoothly decline due to the variation in leg strength.
Biomechanics studies on kicking have shown there's very little change in kick velocity (and therefore max distance) for field goal kickers with distance: they're basically always kicking at near maximum strength. The "field goal success chance" at 60 yards isn't a coin flip on whether or not the kicker hits it hard enough, it's a coin flip on whether your kicker is Justin Tucker or not.
If the Cowboys kicker said "it's not close enough," you go for it. I don't blame him in the slightest for that.
#29 by sk57 // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:44am
To pick a nit, at the same foot velocity a kicker can try to get it to go further by kicking it lower (more like a 5 iron than a 7 iron). Well inside their range they (good kickers), kick it high to minimize the chance it is blocked.
#37 by Pat // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:01am
Yup - distance is far, far more controlled by impact position than leg swing. If your normal kicks can make it from 50 yards, 55 yards would require 10% more kick velocity, and that's just not happening.
In fact, the really interesting thing I've seen is that kickers in fact do appear to push a bit harder for longer kicks, and they shouldn't. It doesn't increase the average speed, it just increases the variation. And yeah, obviously, increasing the variation means there are some kicks that will make it that wouldn't have, but high-end kickers have enough leg strength inside what they consider their range.
I'd also be really shocked if NFL teams didn't have kicker-specific models which take into account temperature and wind speed, too. They've got vastly more data on their kicker than you get from the play-by-play. If anything, I'd be using go/no go decisions to derive information about NFL kickers rather than the other way around.
#45 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:15am
Yup - distance is far, far more controlled by impact position than leg swing. If your normal kicks can make it from 50 yards, 55 yards would require 10% more kick velocity, and that's just not happening.
Ignoring wind resistance, it's closer to 5% more kick velocity.
x is just Vx*t, but the t depends in a non-linear manner on Vy.
\at 70 ft/s and 50 degrees, you land at 50 yards (this ignores crossbar height). At 73.5 ft/s, you hit 55 yards.
#80 by Pat // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:00pm
Actually probably depends on the kicker: once you start getting to collegiate/NFL levels, the ball's launch velocity is close to terminal, and it's being launched close to 30 degrees. If it was way above terminal, it'd be straight linear, if it was way below, it'd be quadratic (like you're mentioning). Annoyingly the only mechanical studies I've ever seen are way below typical NFL kick speeds, which is weird because it's the same researcher who was doing them.
#19 by IlluminatusUIUC // Nov 14, 2022 - 9:59am
Buffalo received too much love after the 2020 run and has dedicated calendar year 2022 to reminding everyone that we are the most tortured fanbase in sports. A weekend bookended by catastrophic Bills losses to other tortured teams sandwiching Jack Eichel blowing out out of our own building with a 3rd period hat trick.
I am legitimately terrified of the Lions game.
#108 by Paul R // Nov 14, 2022 - 2:19pm
True, the Christians have taken advantage of new concepts like opposable thumbs and the printing press, but I appreciate the Lions' emphasis on sticking to the fundamentals: running, tackling, and lying around in the shade with no clothes on.
#24 by RickD // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:11am
Don't be too enamored with Miami. They had a miracle comeback vs. Baltimore and beat the Bills at home thanks in no small part to the heat. They're not likely to win in San Francisco, and I'd say their odds of winning the rematch in Buffalo are essentially zero.
Brain farts notwithstanding, the Bills are the better team. They were certainly the better team yesterday, even though they inexplicably gave the game away. That kind of generosity isn't predictive.
#27 by Will Allen // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:37am
The last 3 Bills games I watched, Josh Allen threw terrible ints. It may be that terrible ints are just part of the package, along with amazingly good stuff. Which means that it wouldn't be a shocking upset if they lost to Miami.
#33 by IlluminatusUIUC // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:46am
Which means that it wouldn't be a shocking upset if they lost to Miami.
If this play continues and we keep taking crucial defensive injuries, Miami should be favored in the rematch. It wouldn't be an upset at all.
#31 by IlluminatusUIUC // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:45am
That kind of generosity isn't predictive.
Bills fan here. It's becoming predictive. In pressure situations, Josh Allen is looking long and not coming off it, even with open underneath options. His game-losing pick yesterday came with Singletary sitting completely uncovered at the LOS. A simple dumpoff gets them at least 8 yards and maybe a first down.
#112 by JS // Nov 14, 2022 - 2:34pm
Yeah, that pick was brutal. There was nothing there. The only good thing you can say about it is that he was upset afterwards. Hopefully he was mad at himself for being a complete idiot and not thinking that if he'd only thrown it just a little bit higher or to the left it would have been completed.
My comment from last week about Allen looks that much better. You can't be an awesome QB if your thinking is that because you're an awesome QB, stupid things will work out.
#119 by Ben // Nov 14, 2022 - 3:09pm
That whole drive seemed to me like Allen was trying to play hero-ball to make up for the fumble in the end zone. Lowering a shoulder to take on a LB is a dumb move for any QB, I don’t care how big and athletic they are (okay, I’ll add the caveat that doing that might be defendable if it’s the difference between a first down or TD at a crucial point in the game.)
#38 by mehllageman56 // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:02am
I'm calling it now; the Pats win the division. Belichick will hide his team's deficiencies better than the other coaches in the division; all the teams in the AFC East are solid but flawed. The Dolphins have offensive line issues, even with their resurgence, as well as the weakest defense in the division, the Jets can't trust their QB, and the Bills have a better secondary on injured reserve right now than what they can shove out on the field, to go along with Allen's brainfarts. I don't trust the Pats QBs (might as well include Zappe in the equation), but I trust Belichick more than the other coaches.
#123 by KnotMe // Nov 14, 2022 - 3:11pm
Sometimes it's good to say crazy stuff, if your right you look like a genius and if your wrong, nobody remembers.
Pats remaining games are. Jets, @Vikes, Bills, @LV, Bengals, Fins, @Bills.
I'd be impressed if they get more than 2 wins there. (I think their SOS is like 9th or so) They are clearly the 4th worst team in their division and have less talented then their competitors. Belichick a great coach but meh drafting is catching up to him. They also need an offence. The whole AFCE making the playoffs would be amusing, but I think it's pretty unlikely.
#140 by Raiderfan // Nov 14, 2022 - 4:33pm
“They are clearly the 4th worst team in their division”
Well, if they were the fourth best team, they would the worst in a four team division. Saying they are the fourth worst team means….you think they are the best?
#36 by PirateFreedom // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:51am
I think that courage/recklessness will always be a part of his game but I'm a little worried that "don't press when you don't have to" wasn't internalized for at least one game after throwing a pair last week.
Brett got some MVPs and a ring, without ever learning a goddamn thing, so I'm not that worried.
#44 by big10freak // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:14am
When Holmgren was the coach he rode Favre mercilessly on risk management. Once Holmgren left Favre kept 'some' of what he had heard/learned. Favre's turnovers were also exacerbated by having to make straw into gold with his receiving corps in various seasons. Unlike 12 who fusses Favre shrugged and kept slinging the ball wanting his guys to make a play. Favre also busted his thumb in 1999, came back way too soon trying to help Rhodes have a successful season as a coach, and it permanently affected his ability to squeeze the ball.
I know Paul Zimmerman has everyone now convinced that Favre was just careless with the ball and maybe actually dumb. Favre could be careless absolutely. But the interceptions were driven by multiple factors not just the player's approach. (We all develop blind spots, and I think the mainstream media's fawning over 4 drove Zimmerman to lurch too far in the opposing direction as a counterweight)
#53 by JS // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:28am
Yes, but Favre added to that image by buying into the late-career "He's just having fun out there" meme a bit too much. He'd throw a pick and very obviously not be on the sideline pissed off at himself. I would also push back against the "wanting his guys to make a play" excuse. Some of his interceptions were just dumb, like Allen's OT INT yesterday. You can't excuse throwing into triple coverage, even when it works out 5% of the time.
I know you're not saying none of that is real. I'm just further clarifying by noting that Favre himself late in his career seemed to decide that his legend excused whatever he decided to do.
#57 by dmb // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:33am
Zimmerman helped convince me that Favre was careless with the ball. Favre himself is the one who gave me the impression that he's maybe actually dumb, and his more recent activities have done nothing to dispel that notion.
#63 by theslothook // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:39am
I think Favre historically is being dragged down far further than he should have which is happening because of 3 reasons.
1) interceptions are intrinsically viewed as 100 percent on the QB. They become the kind of stat where good QBs don't throw them and bad ones do. And while that's kind of true, it's overstating things.
2) The media following him made a lot of excuses and pumped up his legacy far further than it should have been. That has caused an extreme overreaction in the other direction.
3) Just as he was exiting the game, probably the two best QBs of all time were in their primes and stylistically as far apart from Favre as you can get, further cementing his style as antiquated and inefficient.
I think Favre is the predecessor to Mahomes. I think, like you mentioned above, his turnovers came in part because of coaching, in part because of receivers, and in part because that was his style. You can't be a maverick and not toss turnovers unless the rest of the supporting cast is incredible buttoned down.
Ive controversially maintained I think Favre is a fringe top 10 candidate and in a vacuum is probably better than Drew Brees on most teams.
#70 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:43am
1) interceptions are intrinsically viewed as 100 percent on the QB. They become the kind of stat where good QBs don't throw them and bad ones do. And while that's kind of true, it's overstating things.
It's really not with Favre. He threw the dumbest INTs you'll ever see from a QB regarded as good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWodo7bkfQM
Mahomes has some of Favre's tendencies, but is both better and was gotten to by Andy Reid before it was too late. If you want a more modern Favre type, it's Cutler. Cutler was Bad Favre.
#79 by theslothook // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:00pm
Mahomes has Reid as his coach and at least from a receiver talent standpoint trumps Favre there too. I didn't watch football in the 90s so I have no idea how good the offensive line was back then. The early 2000s line had some notables, Rivera and Wahl, but I am going off names and I don't think there were reliable metrics on offensive line play way back then. But at least 3 out 5 players on the Chiefs line were mentioned as All pros for PFF if that counts for anything. At the very least, they've invested heavily in it. We really haven't seen Mahomes outside of pristine circumstances.
That said, I regard Mahomes as the best QB in football but its murkier assessing his greatness against others from different periods at this time.
#83 by big10freak // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:11pm
The early 2000's line with Clifton/Tauscher as bookend and Wahl/Rivera at guard was outstanding. Favre was only sacked 19 times in 2003 and 12 times in 2004, and I would wager half each season were coverage sacks.
#155 by dank067 // Nov 14, 2022 - 10:16pm
Yeah, I can buy arguments that Favre's interception total doesn't reflect his down-to-down decision making and that he largely knew what he was doing when he was aggressive throwing into tight windows and down the field. He also did shit like this regularly enough that there's a reason we remember him for his INTs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4HuzN1MI54
#39 by andrew // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:08am
I didn't remember that play, so was confused by this... then looked at the play by play and sure enough it does list :
1st & 15 at BUF 48
(8:17 - OT) (Shotgun) K.Cousins sacked at MIN 47 for -5 yards (A.Epenesa). FUMBLES (A.Epenesa) [A.Epenesa], touched at MIN 47, recovered by MIN-D.Cook at MIN 45.
Remembering back, I remember the penalty that pushed them back 5, then from memory there was a pass to Cook on the edge under pressure that was a sideways/backwards pass that Cook wisely decided to fall on just in case it was a live ball, which it was. This lost them 7 more yards setting up 2nd and 22, which they got out of when there was a (justified) DPI on Jefferson next play.
I would not call that a strip sack, I'd have to go back and look but i never got the impression there was a sack or even a ball knocked out of his hands, it was a throw, maybe he got turned a little as he threw so the ball went backwards, or maybe the design was supposed to be sideways for some trickery, not sure.
The point about it being a cousins play that gives pause is legitimate, just wondering about the pbp.
#40 by theslothook // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:08am
I had to travel to Los Angeles this weekend and missed all but the final drive of the Colts Raiders game.
Anyone who watched the game care to give a synopsis?
I mean the one besides Jeff Saturday is taking names Robert Salah/Klay Thompson style
#69 by Ben // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:43am
To reference other games, the offense looked about like it did in the second Jax game. A lot of quick short passes with YAC. The o-line was competent against one of the worst pass rushes in the league. Also, watch the Paris Campbell TD reception to see some truly awful (attempted) tackling by the Raiders. The Colts also had their usual foot shots (a fumble, a silly long sack and some missed FGs) to kill drives where they moved the ball.
The defense reminded me of the Washington game, except they made the plays in the last minute. The defense looked great in the first quarter. The Raiders then went to more of a mid-range passing game and had a lot more success. The pass rush wasn’t great, but the secondary held up well enough to allow them to get to Carr. Unlike in the Washington game, where Heinke would escape the pocket and make a play, the d-line was generally able to contain Carr though.
#85 by Pat // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:29pm
The o-line was competent against one of the worst pass rushes in the league.
One of the reasons why pass rush statistics drive me nuts is that things like pass block win rate and pass rush grades just assume that each rusher is totally ignoring all the others and they're just each going crazy. Which is nuts. You don't need to get 4 guys to the QB, you need to get one guy to the QB.
The reason I bring this up is that a lot of metrics have the Patriots way down in pass rush metrics, because they stunt/blitz like all the freaking time. But raw pressure stats (how often is the QB pressured) have them near the top. The Raiders are a bit of the opposite: in raw pressure stats they're horrible, but on an individual basis, they're mediocre. And guess what - their stunt/blitz rates are well on the lower side of the league.
And if you take a look at last week vs this week on the OL, it's a pretty obvious difference. The Raiders either barely blitzed or stunted or their stunts/blitzes were stupid and pointless, and the OL did fine. Last week the Patriots stunted/blitzed often, and the OL collapsed like a house of cards constantly.
#81 by Paul R // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:08pm
Despite all of the chaos of the past week, the Colts offense managed to take the field and play the kind of disaster-free football one expects professionals to play; proving to the world that they are NOT the 32nd ranked offense in the league but, maybe the...29th? High-school coach, Jeff Saturday, similarly avoided disaster on the sidelines. He seemed engaged and respected by the staff and even threw a successful challenge. Matt Ryan finally got to stand in a clean pocket and toss the kind of accurate, short-yardage passes everyone expected him to be able to execute. Ryan also had a career-long 39-yard run which probably says more about the Raiders defense than Ryan's skill as a scrambler.
About the Raiders...I dunno, man. The Colts have a solid, middleweight defense with a good pass rush and the Raiders offense appeared, let's say, "capable of competing" at that level. The Raiders defense didn't do anything outrageously stupid but they seemed to be out of position and a step behind on every play, allowing their opponents to execute a fairly-ordinary game plan with success. The whole team seemed kind of lost and lackluster which is the sort of performance one looks to the coach to fix. Ownership may be checking around Vegas-area high schools as we speak.
#88 by Raiderfan // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:36pm
“About the Raiders...I dunno, man.”
I do. They suck. They especially suck on defense, because they just cannot tackle. Missing their top two tacklers in the game didn’t help. That is why I am not inclined to blame McDaniels tooooo much for losing to the rookiest HC ever. He is an offensive minded first year HC. Firing the DC would be fine, though.
#98 by Paul R // Nov 14, 2022 - 1:39pm
Last week, the Pats got nine sacks by running a crossing stunt at the Colts right side. The Colts RG fell for it every time and wound up double-teaming one guy while letting another through the gap. The Colts benched that RG, thank God.
In this game, the Raiders ran the exact same stunt on the first Colts pass play. The Colts blockers had obviously spent a bit of time watching film and picked up the stunt and blocked it effectively. But after that, it was like the Raiders pass rush was out of ideas. As though fixing that one stunt was the only thing holding back the Colts O-line for nine games.
I agree the defensive coaching may be the issue. Obviously the Colts blocking improved since last week, but they didn't get that much better.
#130 by Pat // Nov 14, 2022 - 3:26pm
The Colts benched that RG, thank God.
I know Pryor deservedly gets a lot of crap, but part of the problem was that the Colts had him bulk up to play LT, which was insane. So now once they've moved him back to RG, his weight's just totally wrong for the position. I mean, he's not a good RG by any stretch, but at that weight he can't move well and the Patriots knew it and exploited it.
But to be clear - the Colts benched Pryor early in that game (like, after around 10 snaps I think), and it didn't get much better once he was out, because it wasn't entirely the guard.
In this game, the Raiders ran the exact same stunt on the first Colts pass play.
It's not really because they got better: the Raiders ran it worse. They didn't really pressure the center at all, so he was totally free to see the stunting lineman and pick him up. The Raiders have talented guys on pass rush but they don't use much creatively to help them.
#146 by serutan // Nov 14, 2022 - 7:26pm
I was completely mystified that the Raiders didn't just take the interim label off Bisaccia given he got them to the playoffs after the Gruden mess. And I am also mystified why Belichick assistants still get HC gigs even though the BB coaching tree consists of nothing but rotten branches with the possible exception of Romeo Crennell.
#156 by BigRichie // Nov 15, 2022 - 12:39am
Norv nearly has a .500 record (+ 4-4 in the playoffs). Feel free to discount his Charger 'Thank you, Marty!' record. But then credit him for having a winning record under Daniel 'friggin' Snyder, and his two worst seasons were during Stage 1 of Al Davis' descent into senility.
Add all the Belichickens together, and Norv comes off as Belichick himself in comparison.
#43 by theslothook // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:13am
Since I didn't get to watch this week, I thought I'd espouse on something I found thought provoking that came from non other than Rex Ryan. Rather unwittingly, he basically intimated that Jeff Saturday succeeding would send a dangerous message; effectively what value does coaching experience bring If you can win with a guy who's never coached before?
Now to be 100% clear, I don't think Jeff Saturday is going to be a successful head coach, but him being better than a laughing stock is the latest example of how little we(the NFL brass, the media, and the fans know) about coaching evaluation.
Sean McVay, Nick Sirianni, Mike Vrable, and Jon Harbaugh are all recent examples of this phenomenon. In the NBA, young coaches with little experience are having phenomenal success as well.
Edit
Should also include Kingsbury, who despite the criticisms, has had a pretty successful tenure even with this season. I mean, he has already done far far better than more seasoned, so called NFL lifers. I mean, by the traditions of NFL hiring, there is no reason Josh McDaniels should be this bad as a head coach right?
#48 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:22am
It's interesting to consider that Saturday had more experience as a HC when he landed an NFL HC job than Rex Ryan did.
\and oddly enough, HS might be a more similar environment for a HC than NCAA is, because you have much less ability to serve as your own GM
#65 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:41am
I know what he meant.
But the Ryans were clowns who were Peter-Principled as HCs, so it's amusing to watch him try to throw shade.
Reid and Madden were never coordinators. Nor was Jim Harbaugh.
\Reid had never even been a coordinator above Div-II.
#77 by theslothook // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:53am
But the Ryans were clowns who were Peter-Principled as HCs, so it's amusing to watch him try to throw shade.
I guess I am going to be a lunatic and die on this hill. But I think Rex Ryan was a successfull, honest to god, good head coach. Look, as an analyst he's a F**** idiot who's bloviating makes everyone around him dumber. And of course, the way he talks implies he's one of those meathead old school coaches who believes toughness and hitting = winning football games. And yet, Rex Ryan the coach is actually very tactical/schematic minded coach. Yes he acts like a player's coach, but those defenses were molded in his vision and how he thinks about the game. And frankly, he was very successful when you consider a) they went to two AFC Title games, b) His Qb was Mark Sanchez, and c) he was stuck with the ultimate division overlord.
I don't even think his tenure with the Bills was all that bad either. In many ways, I think he's a bit like Kyle Shannahan and you could even argue he's been a better coach than Kyle Shannahan. I know Kyle has advanced a round further than Ryan; but he hasn't had any success with non Jimmy G qbs(despite being an offensive wizard) and when they have been successful, those teams have been powered mostly on defense, which was never the case with Ryan.
Frankly, I think given who his QBs have been, only Lovie has overachieved more imo.
#89 by IlluminatusUIUC // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:43pm
I don't even think his tenure with the Bills was all that bad either.
He inherited an elite defense and promptly drove it into the toilet. The success of Ryan's Bills (such as it was) was due to finding competence with Tyrod Taylor and Greg Roman's offense. He also made classless moves like signing IK Ekempali and making him captain specifically to troll Geno Smith, and terrible in-game moves like punting in OT in a must-win game, then sending 10 men out on defense immediately after. It was a total clownshow.
#92 by mehllageman56 // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:54pm
He was a good coach, saddled with a bad QB prospect to start. Then he was stuck with a terrible GM, partially because the QB embarrassed himself on national TV (buttfumble) and someone had to go. Ryan probably could have handled Geno Smith better, but that's not all his fault; Smith started immediately because Sanchez got hurt in preseason, and whether Ryan decided to put Sanchez in harms way or it was Idzik, we won't know. Rex failed with Buffalo because he didn't take a year off, and it was a bad situation for him. The Bills defense was not a 3-4 like his, but was the strength of the team, being number 1 in DVOA before he took over. So he changed the defense to his style, weakening the strength of the team, while the offense needed the most work, which was the part of football he was least knowledgable about. He lucked into Tyrod Taylor (although he did have something to do with signing him, and did start Taylor when he outplayed everyone in preseason). He still wasn't that bad with Buffalo, but the Bills' decision to change regimes looks vindicated by now.
#99 by Led // Nov 14, 2022 - 1:44pm
Rex was a good head coach when he had Mike Pettine with him making the trains run on time. Rex was too disorganized and undisciplined on his own. Pettine was organized and detail oriented, but unimaginative and unlikeable, which is why he failed without Ryan.
#47 by big10freak // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:21am
Cousins is testament to having above average ability, being tough and being able to stick in the lineup you can figure out ways to make plays.
Cousins throws more "wtf?!" up for grab throws than any successful qb in like forever mostly because most successful qbs don't make those ridiculous throws. But Cousins' attitude is 'godd8mmit I know I am going to get plastered and am falling backward and really have no idea where this is going but maybe a good thing will happen' And what do you know, sometimes it does.
He has smaller hands so he fumbles a lot because he won't give up on plays and just go down. But that is part of the Kirk package.
As a fan of an opposing team who sees him play regularly he is super annoying as he should be punished more often for these batsh8t nonsense throws. And sometimes he has a game where it all works against him. But over the course of the career this approach has worked more often than not and with a good cast around him it works REALLY well. So I am prepared to be incredibly annoyed as this season progresses. Vikings fans get to enjoy the Cousinscoaster. It's a trip.
#49 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:23am
Cousins throws more "wtf?!" up for grab throws than any successful qb in like forever mostly because most successful qbs don't make those ridiculous throws.
I spent too many years watching Favre to even bat an eye at Cousins.
#59 by Will Allen // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:36am
I've never been a fan or hater, just have never liked his cap %, relative to the difference he can make. Like all fans, I'd prefer getting a bargain at qb.
Give him his due, however: he doesn't have any Jeff George in him. He's trying to win games, as opposed to maximize physical safety.
#66 by theslothook // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:42am
I think Cousins stylistically reminds me of Cutler. A gambler and a tough guy, but has one of the bigger fall offs between pressured and unpressured (with Goff the all time leader).
However, unlike Cutler, Kirk appears to be respected by his coaches and his teammates.
#52 by dmb // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:26am
This Vikings victory raises an interesting question: are close victories over good teams the sign of an elite contender, or are blowouts the more predictive signal? It would be great to see a timely exploration of the topic.
But seriously, in one piece Tanier has managed to ignore Guts 'n Stomps, decry fourth-down aggression, and even offer up something resembling a defense of throwing a first-round pick at RB (for a player who wasn't viewed as a consensus generational-talent type). I know some of the old Football Outsiders tenets have become increasingly-conventional wisdom, and that contrarian positions can provide grist for the column mill, but... I'm almost halfway expecting Tanier to write a "run to win" column later this week.
Also, I'm not sure what Tanier was going for with his use of "palindrome," but it was clearly some other word. Anagram, perhaps?
#61 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:36am
I'm almost halfway expecting Tanier to write a "run to win" column later this week.
It's interesting to observe that with defenses going lighter than ever before to stop the pass, the efficiency and volume of rushing has been creeping up while that of passing has been creeping down. You can increasingly run-to-win as a contrarian strategy because defenses have sort of forgotten rush defense.
#101 by Mike B. In Va // Nov 14, 2022 - 1:52pm
Example: The Bills can only stop the run with *all* of their elite defenders on the field. If they lose one (a la losing Edmunds yesterday), they can be run over. This was completely true last year, as well, and is a weakness teams (MIN, NYJ) are definitely exploiting. The Bears seem to like to try and play that game offensively with everyone, and to a lesser extent SF.
The league is cyclical. The question will be if running can play enough keep away and score enough points to beat a team with a good passing attack. Seems to be working for the Jets.
#104 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 2:02pm
TEN, Baltimore, and SF lean heavily into rushing as a contrarian strategy. Seattle kicked Russ out of the kitchen in part to return to that style. The Eagles and Colts basically made last year work that way. Buffalo is legit bad against the rush. The Chargers missed the playoffs because they were bad at it.
This is part of why I didn't criticize the Packers trying to keep running on Buffalo. They don't have Jefferson or Thielen, and Buffalo doesn't handled a good running attack well.
From the time they went down 17, the Vikings ran the ball 10 times, not including scrambles or kneeldowns. Other than the drive when they had to go hurry-up, they kept up a balanced running game. They also got both their offensive TDs that way.
#109 by IlluminatusUIUC // Nov 14, 2022 - 2:30pm
That touchdown happened in part because Cam Lewis was in at FS and took an atrocious angle. He was also the one who gave up the 4th and 18 catch. I haven't heard what happened to Jaquan Johnson, who was supposed to be in that spot, but Lewis is a converted 7th round cornerback and we traded for Dean Marlowe at the deadline specifically because he knew the system. I do not understand McDermott's personnel choices sometimes.
#138 by Mike B. In Va // Nov 14, 2022 - 4:03pm
Jaquan Johnson was an even bigger liability against the Jets. Literally every running play in Jersey featured Johnson taking a bad angle. Lewis was considerably better, and is better in coverage than Marlowe.
Also, maybe Marlowe is sucking in practice?
Hamlin, who people weren't as high on, looks good. Still a step down from Hyde at this point, but that's not a slight on him.
#111 by IlluminatusUIUC // Nov 14, 2022 - 2:32pm
The Bills just refuse to come out of nickel, ever. There's definitely a run resurgence every few years, but Buffalo is uniquely vulnerable to it because we just do not adapt to opponent's personnel packages.
#86 by Kaepernicus // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:31pm
I think Tanier is starting to key in on a real economic phenomena happening in the NFL as we speak. This happens in all sports and businesses when analytics passes an adoption inflection point and the same key success metrics are chased by a plurality of competitors. Elite RBs are now signing fair enough contracts and being drafted low enough that they are creating a lot of surplus value around the NFL. Run blocking is also objectively easier to do as an offensive lineman so it's easier to field a competent line when you focus the offense on running concepts like zone blocking. We are in the middle of a WR/QB compensation bubble where everyone is chasing the same thing and paying too much for it in most cases. All of these market setting contracts for sub-elite play are starting to really thin out rosters in other positions. The Eagles have shown another path to excellence that takes advantage of some of these market efficiencies. The 49ers have done the same. The Titans do it every year. The biggest mismatches in the NFL right now, outside of elite QBs, are in the front offices. Look at the teams that continually reload great coaching staffs, draft well, and find surplus value via FA/Trade. The 49ers had one of the best FA signings of the year picking up Mooney Ward. The Chargers overpaid JC Jackson and wish he was contributing at the level of Ward. The Chiefs have turned JuJu into a fantastic bargain receiver signing and picked up Karlaftis in the late first as an edge while the Raiders paid a premium for a great WR who is over 30 and a washed Chandler Jones at edge. The same Jones who has been a liability on run defense for years now as his career winds down. There is a big marginal benefit/marginal cost issue working through the system right now and 20+ teams are living in that dead weight loss pie and don't realize it.
#72 by JS // Nov 14, 2022 - 11:47am
What is up with the Chicago brain trust, or "brain trust?" Add them to the list of HCs/OCs deciding that their QB should just do everything. Yesterday Justin Fields had a bunch of designed runs, which he was mostly successful on. But they have good RBs and Montgomery and Herbert were hardly used. This wasn't some Baltimore-like system where the threat of the QB running was part of the overall running game; Fields just took over the running game. It was reminiscent of some Arizona game plans where KK would decide to junk his Genius Offensive Scheme of the Month and just have Kyler run around doing everything.
So from Chicago we now have three weeks of bog-standard offense, completely ignoring Fields' abilities, followed by three or so weeks of getting Fields out of the pocket and freeing him to run upfield, to three or so weeks of Fields both getting outside and taking off from the pocket, to now it being just the Justin Fields Show. Clearly the minds in charge of the Bears know exactly what they are doing. Fields is a big guy; hopefully he won't get killed.
#91 by Aaron Brooks G… // Nov 14, 2022 - 12:52pm
So from Chicago we now have three weeks of bog-standard offense, completely ignoring Fields' abilities, followed by three or so weeks of getting Fields out of the pocket and freeing him to run upfield, to three or so weeks of Fields both getting outside and taking off from the pocket, to now it being just the Justin Fields Show. Clearly the minds in charge of the Bears know exactly what they are doing. Fields is a big guy; hopefully he won't get killed.
They seem to have adopted a strange lesson from the Bills:
"Maybe he is good Josh Allen, and we should just let him act like he's Josh Allen."