Trey Lance, Justin Fields, and the Preseason Stock Index
NFL Preseason Week 3 - San Francisco 49ers training camp with the young Trey Lance as the starting quarterback looks and sounds a lot like 49ers camp did when the young Jimmy Garoppolo was the quarterback.
There have been lots of nervous reports of three-interception afternoons coming out of Santa Clara, usually tempered with plenty of This is fine, we're a defense-and-ball-control team paper-bag breathing. Thursday night's shaky Lance cameo against the Texans didn't soothe any anxieties. Lance threw one pass wide and others short, took a sack (both 49ers starting tackles were out), and got run down from behind by Jerry Hughes on a scramble. He completed seven passes for 49 yards, but Garoppolo could execute most of Lance's boot-concept micro-passes with his arm in a sling.
You cannot overreact to the preseason, a nation screams as it calmly prepares to canonize Kenny Pickett and select Romeo Doubs in the fourth rounds of fantasy drafts. Rest assured that Walkthrough isn't overreacting. Lance and the 49ers should be fine as he cleans up all the little mistakes that the Dan Orlovskys of the world pointed out on Friday morning. But all indicators point to a growing-pains year for Lance, who threw just 71 NFL passes in 2021 and 30 Missouri Valley Conference passes in 2020. And growing pains won't help the 49ers escape the rigid caste system of the NFC. If you are looking for a Super Bowl sleeper, you should probably look elsewhere.
49ers stock, in other words, is falling, not just because Lance looks like a redshirt sophomore but because the team is still sorting out its offensive line and no newcomers are getting the OMG it's George Pickens treatment to offset all the lukewarm offensive news. And you guessed it: this edition of Walkthrough is an end-of-preseason stock report. We'll tell you who has had a great summer, who has had a bummer, and who spent training camp running in circles or brooding in his Fortress of Solitude.
OK, that last one is clearly Tom Brady, and we just covered the 49ers, so let's get to the rest of the league.
Arizona Cardinals Stock Report: Falling
Kliff Kingsbury took the "What, me worry?" approach to another preseason, starting Trace McSorley and the mystery-stringers each week as if all the Cardinals' problems have long been solved. Meanwhile, Marquise Brown can't stop channeling Dominic Toretto and the Cardinals are dipping into the Bills' doghouse for potential offensive line starters. It's hard to buy in to a team that's always peering over its aviator sunglasses and smirking "trust me" when it doesn't really have a plan.
Atlanta Falcons Stock Report: Rising
Marcus Mariota has looked Tannehill-tastic so far in Arthur Smith's fullbacks-and-play-action offense. Despite a misfire or two on Saturday, Desmond Ridder could be the best quarterback prospect in this draft class—Kenny Pickett and, um, Skyler Thompson included—giving the franchise hope for a quick rebuild. The 2022 Falcons won't be playoff contenders by any means, but they should return to their steady state of beating bad teams and backdoor-covering against some good ones.
Baltimore Ravens Stock Report: Steady
Ronnie Stanley was spotted emerging from the PUP list like the Sasquatch from an out-of-focus patch of brush late in the week. But otherwise, the Ravens remain in something of a holding pattern: no Lamar Jackson contract resolution, no wide receiver solutions, bundles of rookies playing well but none slated to be an instant-impact contributor unless Isaiah Likely really is Kyle Pitts 2.0. The Ravens should pick up where they left off before last year's injury spree, but that simply may not be enough to keep up with the AFC arms race anymore.
Buffalo Bills Stock Report: Steady
With Matt Araiza gone—let's never speak of him again—the Bills can go back to being the darlings of the NFL. The Bills are +3500 to go 17-0 this season (as are the Buccaneers), and while that's a silly bet, it illustrates that expectations didn't exactly cool off after the Bills stomped all over the Vikings (and their backups held their own against Colts starters) earlier in the preseason. No team has fewer holes and better solutions to any potential problems.
Carolina Panthers Stock Index: Rising (???)
Hear us out: expectations for the Panthers were already in the porta potty at the start of camp. The quarterback competition may have been a flea circus, but Baker Mayfield was sharp on Friday night, and Sam Darnold's injury, while awful for Darnold, won't hurt the team much. The Panthers possess a talented core (Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Brian Burns, Jaycee Horn, Jeremy Chinn) and nearly everyone appears to be healthy. And the Panthers open with the Browns and Giants. A 2-0 start anyone?
Matt Rhule remains a ninny, but replace him with your typical bland Shana-clone and the Panthers would be projected as an 8- or 9-win team. They'll be better than you think, if only because you may think they're in danger of getting lost on the way to the stadium.
Chicago Bears Stock Index: Rising
If Trey Lance's weekend had been as impressive as Justin Fields' weekend, the intro to this Walkthrough would be very different. Fields' three-touchdown effort against the Browns' 1.5th-string defense wasn't perfect, and it did not cure all of the Bears' offensive woes. But it demonstrated that Fields should be able to execute a passing game filled with play-action passes to tight ends, a robust quick game, and the occasional rushing opportunity. The Bears are still going nowhere in 2022, but their chances of developing Fields into a franchise quarterback have improved from "LOL, we're not even trying" to "maybe if Cole Kmet finishes second on the team in targets."
Cincinnati Bengals Stock Index: Rising
The Bengals entered camp with Joe Burrow fresh from hernia surgery, Jessie Bates "holding in," and their newly acquired offensive linemen in various states of PUP-dom. Everyone is now back at practice and about as healthy/happy as they need to be. (Bates must be eyeing Derwin James' new contract and dreaming of a Super Bowl ring followed by a free-agency money tsunami.) For a team on the rise, little news is great news.
Cleveland Browns Stock Index: Falling
As of late last week, when Walkthrough was prepping for the Football Outsiders Thursday livestream, there were no "Team Specials" prop bets available on DraftKings for the Cleveland Browns, nor were there any alternate win totals. (They were still off the board as of Saturday, when we sent this capsule to editing.) You could wager the Browns over/under 8.5 wins or upon their Week 1 matchup with the Panthers, but there was nothing like "Nick Chubb OVER 1,500 rushing yards AND Amari Cooper over 7.5 receiving touchdowns at +225" or anything. A vast array of such bets were available for every other team, even teams with unsettled quarterback situations. It has been over a week since the Deshaun Watson suspension was finalized: plenty of time for the house to adjust and offer fresh odds. If Aaron Rodgers grows a third eye and disappears into the multiverse today, the house will probably be offering Jordan Love props tomorrow. But even sportsbooks want to stay out of the Browns business right now. That's a pretty good sign that you should, too.
Dallas Cowboys Stock Index: Falling
With Tyron Smith likely to miss much of the season, the Cowboys are down to Josh Ball, first-rounder Tyler Smith, and fifth-rounder Matt Waletzko at left tackle. Tyler Smith practiced exclusively at left guard for all of training camp and is a technically raw prospect. Waletzko missed most of training camp with a shoulder injury. Ball, who started at left tackle on Friday night, has been the second-team left tackle for most of the summer but hasn't earned rave reviews. The free-agent cupboards at left tackle are predictably bare, and despite their wheeler-dealer reputations, the Cowboys don't sound interested in getting held over a barrel for Isaiah Wynn or Andre Dillard.
The Cowboys historically greet adversity as a welcome excuse for failure—that's practically Mike McCarthy's personal motto—so right now it appears that their already-rickety Super Bowl-or-Bust jalopy is ready to fly apart at the seams by design.
Denver Broncos Stock Index: Steady
The Broncos were the victims of the Bills' let's-prove-a-point jolly-stomping last week, and Nathaniel Hackett is yet another McVay clone who does not believe in preseason starters, even though he's adding Russell Wilson to an offense that is used to catching passes from a pitching machine. Tim Patrick's early camp injury was an obvious setback, but what little non-Russ news escapes the Rockies is mildly good: Lloyd Cushenberry has improved at center, Barrett Browning has been a revelation as an edge rusher, Randy Gregory started taking team reps early in the week, etc. Don't worry about the lack of Broncos hype; with the Broncos facing the Seahawks in Week 1, RUSS' REVENGE is all you will be hearing about soon enough.
Detroit Lions Stock Index: Steady
Just when non-believers like Walkthrough begin to think that Dan Campbell has nothing to offer but bluster, he comes up with something innovative like a player-led practice to illustrate the method behind his madness. Unheralded youngsters such as Malcolm Rodriguez, Austin Bryant, and Demetrius Taylor are getting some buzz, and cornerback perma-prospect Jeff Okudah may finally be coming around. Still, we're waiting for the twigs the Lions are rubbing together to start smoking, not warming our hands beside a fire.
Green Bay Packers Stock Index: Steady
The Packers press pool reacts to every catch by Christian Watson or Romeo Doubs as if they had just witnessed a legion of guardian angels landing on the practice field, then downplays the fact that Aaron Rodgers is calling Glengarry Glen Ross meetings to discuss the dearth of Davante-ness on the roster. So it's hard to separate the spin from the reality in Wisconsin these days. What's certain is that tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are off the PUP list, the backups and youngsters have played well in the preseason, and unlike the Buccaneers, the Packers have not suffered any major setbacks.
Houston Texans Stock Index: Steady
Draft Dameon "Three Pitbulls" Pierce in your fantasy league. (He's climbing the ADP charts, so don't dilly dally.) Forget the rest of this glorified AAA affiliate exists. Live a more fulfilled and happy life.
Indianapolis Colts Stock Index: Steady
It sounds like the Colts are satisfied with Matt Pryor at left tackle and Parris Campbell and rookie Alec Pierce as WR2 and WR3. If the Colts are satisfied, their fans are satisfied. And as long as their fans are satisfied, the Colts never need to be more than satisfactory. Just don't overreact to all those stalled drives we saw from Matt Ryan and the Colts starters, both against the Buccaneers' starters on Saturday (the Colts couldn't move the football until the Bucs' backup brigade arrived) and the Bills' second string in the preseason opener.
Jacksonville Jaguars Stock Index: Rising
Rookie linebacker Devin Lloyd returned to practice this week after missing much of training camp with a hamstring injury and made a few plays against the Falcons on Saturday. Running back James Robinson has also been spotted … running, so he may be back on the field soon. We have all seen Trevor Lawrence move the Jaguars starting offense well in two preseason games before stalling in the red zone. The Jaguars are the young, talented rebuilding team they claim to be. They'll be fun in a sloppy way in 2022, as opposed to last year's entertaining-like-a-celebrity-divorce vibe.
Kansas City Chiefs Stock Index: Rising
The Chiefs showed us a lot of Patrick Mahomes this summer, perhaps more than we needed to see. Mahomes proved he will have little trouble moving the Chiefs offense while throwing to everyone from Marquez Valdes-Scantling to Jody Fortson. Meanwhile, George Karlaftis appears to be a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate, fellow first-round pick Trent McDuffie looks ready to contribute, and the whole defense is less of an afterthought than it was last year. Super Bowl favorites? Not anymore. But the Chiefs had the summer that the Packers pretended to have.
Las Vegas Raiders Stock Index: Steady
There are two Raiders franchises right now. There's the above-the-marquee Davante Adams/Chandler Jones/Maxx Crosby team that gets dragged into Tom Brady beefs. And then there's the team Josh McDaniels is actually trying to build by churning through the bottom two-thirds of the roster. The first team is likely to disappoint, while the second is doing the hard work necessary to make long-term success possible. Neither team is more than a 2022 wild-card also-ran, but both franchises appear to be in better shape than the Patriots.
Los Angeles Chargers Stock Index: Falling
Losing J.C. Jackson for two to four weeks hardly seems like a disaster for a team that usually sees its entire rookie class eaten by coyotes on the first day of minicamp. But the Chargers are projected by most of the cool kids to rise from wild-card contenders to Super Bowl contenders, so they can't afford to lose their top cornerback against the Raiders and Chiefs at the start of the season. Because Brandon Staley hails from the "never play nobody" school of preseason roster management, we haven't seen enough good on the field to offset a little bit of bad news off the field.
Los Angeles Rams Stock Index: Steady
Matthew Stafford's shoulder injury appears to be a nothingburger at press time. Aaron Donald's joint-practice helmet-swinging was a Very Huge Deal on Thursday evening (folks who have never attended or thought about an NFL practice in their lives suddenly demanded that Roger Goodell be granted Palpatine-like powers to solve this crisis) and will probably be forgotten by next Thursday evening. A Donald suspension is unlikely, and all the other Rams we talk about are shrink-wrapped and ready for the season. Meanwhile, no-name reinforcements such as Lance McCutcheon appear ready to make the leap from the rando squad. Little of note has happened this summer for the Rams, and they like it that way.
Miami Dolphins Stock Index: Silly
Dolphins training camp ended the way a preschooler's birthday party ends: with everyone puking their guts up. Yes, it was either a virus or food poisoning, but there has been a little too much frosting and forced enthusiasm at Dolphins camp. Every day has been Tua Tagovailoa's special day, the whole summer a splendiferous celebration because Tua is all grow'd up now. Once everyone's tummy was less rumbly, Tua and Tyreek Hill played pitch-and-catch against the Eagles 2022 practice squad in the preseason equivalent of perforating the bottom of the pinata and handing the birthday boy an Uzi.
We're doing our best to remain open-minded about Tua here at Walkthrough, but it's like we have been getting the hard-sell for a timeshare condo since minicamp. And what other news seeps out of Miami—Mike Gesicki cannot find a role in an offense where tight ends block now and then, for example—suggests that Mike McDaniel doesn't have an instant upgrade up his sleeve. In summary: the Dolphins doth protest too much, and a mass puke attack can hardly be interpreted as a GOOD sign.
Minnesota Vikings Stock Index: Steady
The Kellen Mond/Sean Mannion backup quarterback double-TKO was mildly diverting, with Nick Mullens arriving via trade to ensure that nothing interesting will happen if Kirk Cousins is injured. But backup quarterback battles are only newsworthy when there is little else to talk about. Vikings camp has been quiet in a mildly good way as opposed to the years when it is quiet in a mildly bad way.
New England Patriots Stock Index: Cratering
Friday night featured lots of "one team's starters versus the other team's scrubs" action. The Saints starting offense snow-plowed the Chargers backups. The Panthers starting offense moved the ball with ease against the Bills backups. Even the Seahawks offense had some fine moments against the Cowboys backups.
Meanwhile, Mac Jones and the Patriots starting offense looked like a first-year expansion team on its second day of minicamp against a Raiders defense that was essentially a Mike Mayock blooper reel.
Worst of all, Bill Belichick ordered the starters to stay on the field for nearly a full half. It was like a dad forcing his traumatized kid to keep shooting free throws behind the barn in the rain until he hit three in a row.
Friday's nightmare came on the heels of what has become a typical Patriots practice week: one nigh-apocalyptic session followed by excessive celebration when the Patriots managed to complete a few passes in the second session. The Patriots offense is in deep trouble, Belichick knows it, Jones knows it, and veteran columnists are now sounding like doomsday prophets. Worst of all, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge can't solve the problem, because they clearly are the problem.
New Orleans Saints Stock Index: Volatile
Everything was looking up for Team Reverse Mortgage in early August. Then Jameis Winston sprained his foot. Winston played on Friday night, and the first-team offense hummed against the Chargers backups, but he's still less than 100% mobile. Now Michael Thomas is day-to-day, month-to-month, lifetime-to-gimme-a-Tyreek-contract with a hamstring injury. And rookie left tackle Trevor Penning, who was in the process of winning the starting job from injured journeyman James Hurst, suffered a serious foot injury in that otherwise impressive Friday dress rehearsal. Anything from 12-5 to 5-12 is on the table right now, which is about where we were at the end of minicamp.
New York Jets Stock Index: Falling
The Zach Wilson and Mekhi Becton injuries were bad. Getting used as a preseason self-esteem seminar by both the Eagles and Falcons was worse. On paper, the Jets may look like a near-.500 team with lots of young talent, but on the field they appear to have just built another of their sandcastles.
New York Giants Stock Index: Falling
Giants expectations for 2022 were already gathering mildew in a sub-basement entering camp. But any hope that Brian Daboll possessed the formula for the Super Josh Allen Serum and could fast-track the team's recovery have been dashed by Daniel Jones' listless preseason play, Kenny Golladay's evolution into a WFAN punching bag, injuries to Kayvon Thibodeaux and other rookies, and so on. Mock draft season is gonna come early in the Meadowlands this year.
Philadelphia Eagles Stock Index: Rising
Forget Saturday night's scrubs-versus-stars shellacking. The Eagles starters looked solid in the preseason opener. The backups (at least on offense) looked great against the Browns backups. Various injuries (Jason Kelce, Miles Sanders) are still being shrugged off, and Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts keep projecting a feel-good vibe that Eagles fans find disorienting. None other than Aaron Schatz is now in the cockpit of the Eagles bandwagon, so sit back and enjoy the flight. Just keep a bag handy in case the Eagles caught anything from the Dolphins.
Pittsburgh Steelers Stock Index: Rising
The future belongs to Kenny Pickett and George Pickens. And mid-September may be that future! The offensive line is about 60% complete at best, but the Steelers can win a bunch of YAC-and-sacks games this year, and the post-Roethlisberger rebuild may not be as long and arduous as anticipated.
San Francisco 49ers Stock Index: Falling
See the intro.
Seattle Seahawks Stock Index: Falling
Geno Smith did not so much win the Seahawks starting job as Drew Lock lost it with Friday night's interception spree. That's predictable—no one works harder than Lock to prove that he's not a starting quarterback—but the Seahawks' hope that 2022 would be anything but a glorified gap year rested on the Lock light bulb flickering on. Welcome to the dreariest sort of rebuilding: fetishizing the development of some offensive linemen while the offense struggles to crack 16 points per game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Stock Index: Falling
The Buccaneers interior offensive line suffered an extinction level event while Tom Brady was searching for new antioxidant smoothie ingredients in Amazonia. Brady can fend off interior pressure OR the ravages of age and still lead a team to the Super Bowl, but he can no longer do both. All Brady's preseason cameo on Saturday illustrated was that Brady is committed to preseason cameos.
Tennessee Titans Stock Index: Falling
Treylon Burks' 37-snap, three-target, one-4-yard reception evening against the Buccaneers last week provided a fair indicator of how camp has gone for the Titans offense. Burks caught three short passes (including a pre-halftime touchdown) in the preseason finale, but he also missed part of the game with a wrist injury. Second-year right tackle Dillon Radunz, hoping to hold off third-round rookie Nicholas Petit-Frere for the starting job, started at left guard on Saturday, though Mike Vrabel spent the week shrugging off the move as a temporary response to injuries. Derrick Henry? He has been mothballed for all of training camp, rarely even taking 11-on-11 reps in an effort to ward off the Curse of 370. All signs point to a Titans offense consisting of Henry hammering nine-man boxes for 2-yard gains and Ryan Tannehill wishing he had someone to throw to on third-and-long. And with the Colts looking capable and the Jaguars competent, the Titans can no longer rely on their Conference USA schedule to save them.
Washington Commanders Stock Index: Steady
Rookie running back Brian Robinson was in stable condition and "good spirits" according to Ron Rivera after he was shot during an attempted carjacking on Sunday. We wish Robinson a speedy recovery. The rest of the Commanders summer has been up and down: Terry McLaurin's contract resolution (up), Chase Young's lingering ACL issues (down), Logan Thomas' impending return (up), the expected roller coaster at quarterback. The Commanders appear destined for a typical Washington football season: not horrible, just mostly pointless.
Preseason Week 3 Awards
It sure is great to not be required to do this a fourth time next week!
Defender of the Week
Third-year Baltimore Ravens inside linebacker Kristian Welch recorded 2.5 sacks against Washington; the half-sack featured Welch corralling Sam Howell after he escaped other defenders on a scramble. Welch also ran Howell down from behind on a first-quarter scramble and was in on a rushing stuff.
Welch, a core special-teamer on the roster bubble because the Ravens have 700 draft picks to sift through, started the game, then returned to the lineup late in the fourth quarter so the Ravens could extend their preseason winning streak to 22 games. He even flushed Howell from the pocket on a blitz during the final Commanders series. The streak is goofy, but there's something to be said for going the extra mile in a late-and-close preseason game. If nothing else, the Commanders got a more realistic look at Howell in a two-minute situation.
Special Teamer of the Week
The Minnesota Vikings initially promised us a Saturday night "punt-off," then released Jordan Berry hours later lest their fans get too excited about a position battle. Fortunately, the Vikings handed the job to Tulane rookie Ryan Wright, who wears No. 66 and looks like he should have been blocking for Fran Tarkenton in the mid-1970s. Berry rewarded the Vikings' faith by averaging 56.3 yards per punt and dropping three punts inside the 20 on Saturday night, including this one:
#Vikings rookie Ryan Wright with maybe the best punt I've ever seen pic.twitter.com/wMgnC8VasL
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) August 28, 2022
A rookie punter we can feel good about rooting for? Sincere and unironic thanks, Vikings!
Offensive Line of the Week
Walkthrough has disqualified all of the starting offensive lines who wheelbarrowed backups this weekend—the Saints might have earned this award if they didn't get Trevor Penning injured—and instead honor the Las Vegas Raiders offensive line of Jackson Barton, John Simpson, Andre James, Lester Cotton, and Jermaine Eluemunor. This 1.5th-string unit held its own against the Patriots starters, spurring an early game field goal drive and a touchdown run by Zamir "Zeus" White.
Watch #78 Jackson Barton after this @Raiders touchdown 😂 #RaiderNation
📱: Stream #NEvsLV Tonight (8:15pm ET) on NFL+ https://t.co/d5LYQkaShD pic.twitter.com/iBPD0jYm89
— NFL (@NFL) August 27, 2022
By the way, Walkthrough loves the fact that Georgia had a running back nicknamed "Zeus" on their roster last year and he was the 10th player ( and second running back) from the program drafted in 2022.
Best Supporting Actor in Someone Else's Highlight
Sam Ehlinger's not going to have much to do in 2022 except listen to Matt Ryan and Nick Foles discuss their 401(k)s and how kids these days don't know how music is supposed to sound. Ehlinger won't even purchase coffee for the quarterback room, because that's Foles' thing. But Ehlinger will always remember the 2022 preseason: four touchdown passes, an 82.8% completion rate, and the 45-yard touchdown scramble where he snapped the ankles of this week's BSASEH-winners Nolan Turner and Don Gardner.
Wam, bam, thank you Sam! ⚡️
📺: FOX 59 pic.twitter.com/Hg1mK9sVGJ
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) August 28, 2022
Also, attention social networkers for NFL teams: "Wham, Bam, Thank You [insert name here]" might NOT mean what you think it means. Before Tweeting something with troublesome sexual connotations, consider consulting a boomer, such as Matt Ryan or Nick Foles. (And thanks to Ryan Knox on Twitter for this week's BSASEH suggestion!)
Comments
175 comments, Last at 01 Sep 2022, 6:20am
#1 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 10:25am
Fields' three-touchdown effort against the Browns' 1.5th-string defense wasn't perfect, and it did not cure all of the Bears' offensive woes. But it demonstrated that Fields should be able to execute a passing game filled with play-action passes to tight ends, a robust quick game, and the occasional rushing opportunity.
Has it been so long that people forget that Fields looked good enough in preseason last year that there was controversy that the Bears were starting Dalton? And then Fields came in... and we found out why Dalton was? What Fields struggled with last year was being way too tentative, some of which had to come from defensive recognition. And preseason defenses are bog-standard and simple to recognize.
Honestly the Bears/Browns game made me more concerned for the Browns defense this year: it seemed like half of the plays ended with one guy spinning around being like "shoot... I was supposed to cover that guy, wasn't I." I don't know what it is about certain catches that scream "I wasn't supposed to be this open, but I'll take it!" but man, that game was full of them. I get that it's preseason and things are boring and vanilla but that's supposed to make your assignments easy, guys.
#170 by JoelBarlow // Aug 30, 2022 - 1:49pm
Fields has been mysteriously undermined by multiple NFL coaching staffs and front offices for mysterious reasons, even though "I hate my QB and want him to fail" makes no sense as a strategy for anyone.
Meanwhile 99% of other young QBs rise or fall, are discarded, and we start again.
#3 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 10:56am
Remember folks, the 2008 0-16 Lions went undefeated in the preseason.
https://www.espn.com/blog/detroit-lions/post/_/id/30462/need-proof-preseason-means-squat-diddly-look-at-2008-detroit-lions
This speaks to a more general problem I've noticed. Everyone seems to come into the season with a lot of certainty and by seasons end it's all but forgotten how off our preseason projections were.
Who here had the Bengals and Eagles pegged correctly last season? ( I wrote that I was bullish on the Bengals but even I cannot pretend that I ever saw this coming).
Who predicted the Titans would get the number one seed? Allen was still a mystery and Browns fans were swearing by Baker.
And while the Chiefs eventually righted themselves, their first half was so disjointed that they looked like they may end up missing the playoffs entirely.
All this to say, If there's one thing I've learned over years of watching football. A bunch of teams are going to disappoint that you didn't expect and a bunch of teams are going to rise that you never saw coming. That's what makes football so fun.
Edit, sorry, stupid voice to text had inserted Owens instead of 0
#8 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 11:44am
Who here had the Bengals and Eagles pegged correctly last season?
What exactly do you mean by this? Like, who saw the Bengals going to the Super Bowl, or who saw the Bengals being an average-ish team? Same thing for the Eagles: do you mean "who saw them getting to the playoffs" or "who saw them being basically 0.500"?
Predicting the playoffs is a total fool's errand, you could peg every team exactly and you'd still only have probably like a 50% chance at figuring out a wild-card team. And jeez, predicting deeper into the playoffs is even worse.
Pre-'21 I was very down on the Eagles, specifically because I still doubted the line and because Washington would therefore be a bad matchup, which of course went away when they lost Young. My baseline was 6-7 wins: they swept Washington (which I thought would be the exact opposite) and there's basically the difference.
I'm still trying to figure out why you're holding the Eagles up as some great example of unexpected success. They snuck into the playoffs, everyone (and I mean everyone - they earned the coveted Football Outsiders Scramble Playoff Draft Kiss of Death) knew they'd get immediately bounced, and... they got bounced.
The Bengals are a better example, although my opinions on them from last year entirely come from legacy, and I will fully admit that, in fact, the owner is (amazingly) becoming Not Cheap anymore and the Bengals appear to actually be entering the late 20th century. It's hard to have an opinion on a team preseason outside of legacy when they just went out and bought a new defense (see also New England).
edit: to be clear my opinion on the Eagles now is better than last year, not because they went to the playoffs, but because Mailata looked way better and their top 2 picks were linemen. I was very vocal last year that my main frustration with Roseman was that he seemed to be drafting linemen less... and then he goes out and drafts two linemen super-high. Touché, Howie, touché.
#11 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 11:54am
I don't think most people thought the Bengals would be a playoff team. And most people thought the Eagles would finish close to last in the division. They had a huge dead money figure, were coming off a horrible year, and hired a coach absolutely no one was touting as a great hire.
The bengals and the eagles preseason win total was 6.5, which both teams easily cleared.
#23 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 12:19pm
Yeah. And I just said predicting playoff teams is a fool's errand. They ended up a playoff team by literally one-ish game. They basically flipped a coin and landed in the playoffs. Like I said, they went out and bought a defense and their rookie QB advanced to year 2. The only reason to think they'd stay awful was legacy.
And most people thought the Eagles would finish close to last in the division.
Divisions are 4 teams! They finished 3rd from the bottom, only 2 games ahead of a team that lost their starting quarterback after two quarters and their best player less than midway through the season. If they finished third in the division isn't that "close to last"?
They had a huge dead money figure, were coming off a horrible year, and hired a coach absolutely no one was touting as a great hire.
The horrible year was very clearly injury-related. Dead money doesn't actually do anything: they basically were spending 20% of their cap at QB, which is totally reasonable. One of their QBs didn't play, but that's a normal situation. And the new coach was hired by a GM with an extremely successful hiring track record, so by default the base opinion should be neutral, not negative.
Injuries went away, they got lucky with more injuries, and ended up a middling team that lucked into the playoffs when another team in their division suffered serious injuries.
The bengals and the eagles preseason win total was 6.5, which both teams easily cleared.
You and I have different definitions of the word "easily."
#26 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 12:22pm
I'd be happy if you would pick out two teams you feel are going to clear their win total expectations by an addition 4 games in the Bengals case and 3 games in the Eagles case. Bonus points if you are willing to put real money on it.
#49 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:46pm
NFL games are 50% luck - anyone who predicts a range of wins less than +/-2ish games is just making things up, so clearing an over/under by 4 games is in the noise for me. Hence why I very rarely bet.
I very clearly last year said that I would stay the utter hell away from the Eagles line just because so much of it depended on the other teams in the division (specifically Washington).
#57 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:56pm
I think it would be easier to ask it this way. Given the events of the nfl are truly 50! percent random, does any event not register as a surprise? If the Jags were the 1 seed, that's not a shocking event? If the Chiefs with a healthy Mahomes finish with the first overall pick, that's not a shock to you?
Obviously, those are extremes but the point above was to remind people that preseason expectations give off an air of certainty when in reality, lots of strange things happen that few saw coming. Yes, given the nature of the NFL, it is not super shocking that the Eagles won 9 games. I still think its definitely a surprise that bucked most expectations. That's the point I was making.
#70 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:17pm
Given the events of the nfl are truly 50! percent random, does any event not register as a surprise? If the Jags were the 1 seed
Exponentials are cool. 4 games makes you go "ehh," but 6 is super-unlikely and 8 is no way in hell.
Yes, given the nature of the NFL, it is not super shocking that the Eagles won 9 games. I still think its definitely a surprise that bucked most expectations.
Yeah, because of recency bias. If you were shocked in '20 that the Eagles collapsed you shouldn't be shocked in '21 when they rebounded!
#118 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 4:31pm
I don't see why. Lots of teams collapse one year and then don't rebound the next. The Jaguars finished with the worst record in the NFL for two straight years. The Browns did it for almost three straight years.
I will admit, I did not think the Eagles would be any good last year. It felt like a lost year from jump. They clearly surprised me.
#129 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 5:16pm
Lots of teams collapse one year and then don't rebound the next.
There's a difference between a team collapsing and a team shockingly collapsing. The Patriots dropped 5 wins from '19 to '20. That wasn't surprising, we knew why. The Saints dropped ~4 wins (and like -30% DVOA) from '20 to '21. Also not surprising, we know why.
The Jaguars jumped 7 games in '17 (and +20% DVOA). That was surprising. They had a good defense before, but not epic or anything, and now suddenly they're a juggernaut. They collapsed (dropped 5 games) in '18. That was not surprising. Unexplainable changes should be expected to go away, not stick around. Same reason it was reasonable to expect NFL Destroying Josh Allen to go away (which, for the most part, he did).
I will admit, I did not think the Eagles would be any good last year
This also doesn't surprise me - from the comments you've said, you put extremely high weight on quarterbacks and very little weight on institutional inertia relative to me. To be fair, it's a heckuva lot easier to do that, hence the reason I only usually have opinions on like, 6-7 teams.
#132 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 5:29pm
How did the Eagles fall apart in the first place then if they possess some institutional greatness? And for the record, I do believe there are two teams where insitutional magic is afoot, where its not tied to one or two individuals. That would be Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Everything else looks entirely after the fact, ex post narration.
#142 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 8:34pm
Using Chicago As an example is undermined by the Ravens and the Bills, Two teams historically who had extended stretches of absolutely awful quarterback play until it suddenly and magically reversed course. I suppose it's less about Josh Allen and more about the Pegulias. Although how it took Steve Biscotti so long to see the error of his ways is another head scratcher.
I also suppose now that the waltons own the Broncos there will be that excuse when the Broncos this year magically break free of their quarterbacking doldrums.
#158 by Pat // Aug 30, 2022 - 8:48am
The Bills, as have been stated before, are one of the absolutely few teams in the league that *actually* changed their front office.
Believing they have a stretch of problems back to the 2000s is like believing the Browns have institutional issues back to the 90s. They're the same team in name only.
#157 by Pat // Aug 30, 2022 - 8:46am
The same way a businessman's venture fails, then he starts a new one. Random factors combining. I've already explained what happened with Philly: it looks very surprising if you don't follow the team, it's only a minor surprise if you do. You're welcome to think it's hindsight: go back and check pre-20.
"Everything else looks entirely after the fact, ex post narration."
Which is more likely: there are exactly two front offices that affect teams, or they all do, but the effect is harder to see?
#32 by mansteel // Aug 29, 2022 - 12:53pm
Along these lines (i.e. nobody knows $h!& about how the season will play out), here's a fun game to play: prior to week 1, I have my brother pick his predictions for the three best and worst teams. I then bet that one of his worst teams will finish above one of his best teams. I certainly don't win every year, but I get my share and even when I don't it's usually close (though last year was an exception).
#95 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:00pm
I certainly don't win every year, but I get my share and even when I don't it's usually close (though last year was an exception).
Are you saying his three best teams/worst teams were pretty much as expected last year? That's kindof what I was suggesting above: last year felt really especially chalk-y. By DVOA the biggest jumps/falls were what, Cincy and New Orleans? And both of those were pretty easy to explain: losing a Hall of Famer sucks and adding 10% to Burrow (standard 2nd year QB) gets you an above-average QB. I mean, last year preseason I would've said KC/TB/GB and HOU/DET/NYG. Jacksonville or the Jets would've been safe bets too although the whole "rookie QB" issue is always tough.
Still feels like this year's pretty chalky, too, with BUF/KC/LAR and HOU/DET/NYG as safe bets. Feels like there should be a bit more surprises though (Atlanta, Carolina, hell even Seattle maybe).
#141 by mansteel // Aug 29, 2022 - 8:10pm
Exactly. My brother's picks were TB, KC, and Buf vs. Det, Hou, and Jax. Not even close. More commonly, you have at least one team like the Rams in McVay's first and Goff's 2nd year who come from nowhere to be anywhere from decent to really good, and/or a team that through injuries, FA losses or whatever, pretty dramatically underperforms expectations.
#166 by Pat // Aug 30, 2022 - 11:07am
The one thing that I feel like people screw up a bunch is betting against second-year QBs improving (and similarly betting on later-year QBs improving significantly). Yes, obviously, Goff's improvement was crazy, but the second-year jump for QBs is extremely large. This follows from rule #1: rookie QBs suck (yes yes herbert/jones/lamar whatever don't ruin the simplicity).
Hence the reason why I wouldn't bet against Jacksonville, the Jets, or even Chicago this year. The only one I'd break that rule with is Houston because, at least to me, they're quite obviously not trying to get better.
And then the other thing is that if you're looking for teams that are going to stay good, you go with teams that have managed even before they had their QB. The idea that Buffalo's success is all Josh Allen cracks me up when they took a team that started games with Nathan Peterman to the playoffs (yes yes they went 6-10 with Allen, see rule #1). That's why I wouldn't go with Green Bay, for instance.
#147 by andrew // Aug 29, 2022 - 9:05pm
I mean for all your Bergers, Clabos, Colemans etc, you can make a case for Kluwe being the best known Vikings punter in franchise history. Had the highest average too, though not best net average. One of the guys ahead of him was his replacement, Locke...
#41 by Mike B. In Va // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:34pm
Sure. Let's talk about it. The Bills' front office fucked up, then they cut the guy when that became apparent. Otherwise, let's make a story out of how college athletics like to cover up serious offenses by their players.
#53 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:49pm
Only do anything when the public gets a whiff of it.
I will, in no part, be keeping the Bills as a "darling" because they lost a few SBs and have a goofy QB who's now good. They knowingly moved on from Haack with info that Araiza was under accusation. And we should be dubious about a billion+ $ org not knowing pre draft, when he was unanimous P1 (and consensus ST1) going two rounds after two other Ps.
I don't care how often youre preaching culture and then somehow miss this in vetting when the victim reported it MONTHS before the draft.
And this isn't an attack on you or any Bills fan specifically. Just the general reaction to anything Bills and their supposed culture preaching and the fact that many of those that bashed Allen have been walking on eggshells the last couple years, afraid to say anything, even when it's quite obvious they messed up this time. My team is hardly free of sin either.
#62 by Mike B. In Va // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:07pm
The Mafia were pretty much all about cutting Azaria, AND donating to crisis centers in the wake of it. (Yes, it would be better if people did that all the time without prompting, but the focus can't hurt.) The front office screwed up and figured this would go away, so I'm not thrilled about that, but once it didn't they handled it correctly.
#77 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:26pm
It took them like 44 hours to cut him. After letting him get on the plane but forced themselves to use a QB to punt. They could've at least kept Haack for another week but they were all in in Araiza despite knowing for weeks what was going down.
And I'm extremely skeptical they didn't know pre draft. You can tell me that double digit teams didn't know, but how many were interested in the first place? Why can't you say ALL? Are the 2 teams that did know (which proves it certainly could be found) the ones that drafted a P before them?
I'm not letting a team with all that money just get away with "oops didn't see that, oh well he's gone now" then get heaped tons of praise for crying in public (no offense to McDermott, but were you really that out of the loop?)
#100 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:20pm
That's just ageist. Otherwise there's literally 0 point to your comment, as if anyone was contesting to them being blameless. I constantly call out my, and any team, for sus process.
You're just making light of a very serious topic with weird jokes and fun facts to try and reiterate that I'm not old enough to know anything.
#105 by IlluminatusUIUC // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:40pm
They knowingly moved on from Haack with info that Araiza was under accusation.
Let's separate these things slightly. Haack sucked out loud and needed to go even if we had never drafted Araiza. Araiza effectively won the job as soon as he was drafted. We kept Haack as long as we did only because he accepted a large pay cut to act as insurance.
#110 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:50pm
That doesn't clear them from being all in on a guy they knew was under investigation and leaving for their next game without an extra one.
Apparently all it took was for someone to dig up the dirt and tell us the truth before their "thorough investigation" to be flipped and be like "oh, yeah he bad, lol, sorry guys. CULTURE!"
And apparently Haack is doing fine on another AFC team 🙃
#123 by IlluminatusUIUC // Aug 29, 2022 - 4:44pm
Drafting Araiza was the mistake, not cutting Haack. They could have cut Haack tomorrow, a month earlier, or 30 minutes after the Chiefs game and I would have been just fine with that decision. There are two separate decisions here, one bad and one good.
If the Colts can get better play out of Haack, more power to them. But he was done here.
#125 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 29, 2022 - 5:05pm
He was a special teamer.
But they still made mistakes after drafting him. Signaling you're all in on a rapist...until the public gets whiff of it...is not good! I'd very much consider that a mistake. I dont care if it was me, you or anyone else that sucks that was cut. They didn't even have a BACKUP plan for if the accusations were right! Aka...they didn't care. PR changes everything though.
#161 by Mike B. In Va // Aug 30, 2022 - 9:32am
Eh, they believed the player and his lawyer until the civil suit was announced, and apparently some of the information they had didn't filter down to McD. It was a mistake, they admitted it, and they rectified it - it doesn't strike me as an organizational disaster. I hope justice gets served, although history suggests that's probably not going to be the case. Given the teams actions in general, this doesn't seem out of character for them, as they occasionally get tripped up by being slightly out of touch with "the common people". No team is faultless in this regard.
#163 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 30, 2022 - 9:45am
"It took them like 44 hours to cut him. After letting him get on the plane but forced themselves to use a QB to punt. They could've at least kept Haack for another week but they were all in in Araiza despite knowing for weeks what was going down.
And I'm extremely skeptical they didn't know pre draft. You can tell me that double digit teams didn't know, but how many were interested in the first place? Why can't you say ALL? Are the 2 teams that did know (which proves it certainly could be found) the ones that drafted a P before them?
I'm not letting a team with all that money just get away with "oops didn't see that, oh well he's gone now" then get heaped tons of praise for crying in public (no offense to McDermott, but were you really that out of the loop?)"
#10 by mehllageman56 // Aug 29, 2022 - 11:52am
Some general comments.
I agree with Tanier that the Panthers are going to surprise people. Mayfield was injured last year, he's healthy now and has a chip on his shoulder. The only problem is that the revenge tour starts with game 1.
I don't think the Jets camp is that down. Becton's injury is massively disappointing, but he didn't play last year either, and the offensive line wasn't the trainwreck everyone thought it would be. The reason for pessimism is the quarterback position, but even then Wilson's injury could have been much worse. I'd feel better if Flacco had stayed retired and the Jets stuck with White and Streveler, who are limited by arm strength but may be better at running the offense than Flacco.
I'd also feel better if the Jets had drafted Skylar Thompson. There are articles claiming no one predicted him being a good prospect. That's not true; Matt Waldman was all over him before the draft. He thought Thompson was the best QB prospect this year.
Also, I think the plan for the AFC East is this; Jets draft quarterback in first round who looks good after a couple of years(Pennington), Patriots get lucky in late round (Brady), who runs the division for 20 years. Bills draft a quarterback who looks good after a couple of years (Allen), Dolphins get lucky in late rounds (Thompson), they run the division for 20 years. The only question left is whether I wait 20 years or 40 years for the Jets to win Super Bowl.
#24 by KnotMe // Aug 29, 2022 - 12:19pm
Mayfield has never been that good so I'm tempering expectations there. He's probably not going to turn into Justin Herbert at this point. He could be average or a bit above I think.
NE seems to be falling back into their historical mode of having period of being good-ish(but not good enough) or being terrible. Miami is still miami. If you go by historical trends the Bills can only really dominate for about 10 years (super longs runs like Brady are ultra-rare). So there should be a window at some point.
It's like everyone else(buffalo, KC, GB's entire friggen history it seems like), you hit on a coach and QB and suddenly your in the mix all the time.
#38 by Noahrk // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:25pm
Waldman didn't say the best, he said he belonged in the same tier as the best passers in this class. So far, Waldman is looking like a genius. It's not just he's been good, his strengths have been exactly what Waldman said they were, down to looking more experienced than he is. Loving the guy so far.
#112 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 29, 2022 - 4:00pm
Partially because it matters. But you can see some Teddy...and Nathan Peterman in him.
I certainly wouldn't advise teams to trade for Teddy...again lol
Skylar is a perfect example on someone the Seahawks shouldve drafted. Jets less so with no real path to play time with Wilson with 3+1 years left and Flacco on a silly contract...again lol
#127 by mehllageman56 // Aug 29, 2022 - 5:11pm
Agree with the Flacco contract being foolishness, but if you don't have a QB you have to keep trying. Pretty sure Thompson would have stuck around in NY since Mike White is in danger of losing his job to Streveler, who was the second best backup quarterback this preseason. Plus White and Streveler have weaknesses Thompson does not have, mainly lack of arm strength.
It's not like Wilson has set the world on fire, so they don't need to keep trying something at the position. I would have preferred if they didn't trade up so much in this draft-you would argue to not have done that for Breece Hall, but the trade up for Johnson is looking worse, since Clemons has looked better than Johnson so far. Oh well, should I begrudge Big Daddy Landlord Ross getting some rings from a lucky late round pick? Yes.
#133 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 29, 2022 - 6:05pm
I feel like most people, ironically, could learn from Allen. Patience can be rewarded because the grass isn't always greener on the other side. Sometimes you just need to water it...and let it grow! Because resources and roster spots are finite. Imagine if the Bills selected Haskins (RIP) after Allen's objectively bad rookie year, instead of Ed Oliver, a multi year starter. That sounds like a mess, hindsight or not. I certainly don't think they're the favorites now if they would've done that.
Constantly spending assets at a position that either starts or plays 0 snaps, with no in between way to work up through ST, isn't how one should generally team build. It's already extremely hard to evaluate with reps limited by the CBA but at some point, you have to just hit on players outside of the QB position. Even if QB is the most important, it's a team game with 52 others on the roster. They can sink good QB play.
So although Thompson looks good now, we should remember he was a 7th rounder, likely for a reason. You can find anyone hype up anyone (many Bills fans, not here, are trying to act like Araiza wasn't P1 and that a tiny minority propping up Stout, warranted the "fall" and had nothing to do with teams knowing...all of this, thus alleviating the FO, of culture, of blame!). Fellow rookie 7th round QB Brock Purdy, graded higher than Thompson, apparently still couldn't make SF comfortable enough moving off of Jimmy. The chances either become something are slim. A shot worth it for Seattle. Less so NY.
Build around Wilson. If he still sucks after like year 3, then you can start really moving on...and you still might have a team in place for the next guy! Maybe next year you can draft someone late (after a Mekhi/OT replacement, and as long as yall stop with Flacco nonsense too) and ride with a cheap, young guy behind Wilson.
At the end of the day though, your rookie wasn't likely to be as historically bad as Rosen, nor the next prospect as good as Murray. There's hope for Y2 of Wilson, so surround him. For Geno/Lock/Eason...erm...not so much.
#148 by mehllageman56 // Aug 29, 2022 - 9:13pm
Allen is an anomaly. I wouldn't plan anything based on what he did, or what happened with Brady in round 6, except that a business needs/wants workers who work hard at getting better, which both Brady and Allen did and do. Arizona was fortunate to get off the Rosen wheel early, and the Bills were fortunate with their patience with Allen. As Pasteur said, chance favors the prepared mind, and both organizations did their homework on the players involved. Which didn't happen with Araiza.
Maybe PFF is grading Purdy higher than Thompson, but according to regular stats Purdy isn't even close to Thompson who leads the NFL preseason in passer rating, is 7th in yards/game, tied for 1st in TDs with the Jets' Chris Streveler, and hasn't thrown an interception yet. The maligned Mike White has more touchdowns than Purdy (2 to 1), less interceptions (0), and a better completion percentage (64.8 to 61.2) than Purdy, and yet Jets fans want to ditch White in favor of Streveler.
I'd be fine ditching one or two of Flacco, White and Streveler for Thompson if the Dolphins foolishly try to sneak him onto the practice squad. Obviously they're not going to ditch Zach. As far as next year, they do need offensive line help (not only because of Becton, but because other guys are going to be free agents), but if they end up with a really early pick (according to the prospectus, rather possible), they're drafting either Will Anderson or one of the QBs, if they tank because of Zach. The thing is, the main reason to be pessimistic about their chances this year is the quarterback; the offensive line is ok, they have plenty of weapons, and the defense should be improved. In fact FO predicted that they'll have the 8th ranked defense this coming year; it's the schedule and the offense that's the problem.
#149 by mehllageman56 // Aug 29, 2022 - 9:17pm
Also, the Niners didn't move on from Garappolo because no one wanted to trade for him, until now when the Niners need him to step in when Lance tanks. Which may very well happen. Why else would Garappolo go with a one year contract with a no trade clause? He's thinking he's going to end up starting in San Francisco.
#152 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 29, 2022 - 9:52pm
Then we're not learning enough. Allen is far from the first QB to start slow. The Bills built around him and didn't abandon him on first sight. They aren't SB favorites because he's objectively and clearly the best QB in the world.
We're sitting here discussing 7th round QB3s. That's not gonna help them pan out. IDK why one with a potential franchise QB worried about such things. Think about that: you're fiending for Skylar...Thompson. Not Kenny Pickett. Not Malik Willis. Skylar...Thompson. 5 year KSU Skylar. All so if Wilson goes down you can...feel...5%(?)...more comfortable about your chances of winning?
And your last pick was in the 4th. You're pessimistic because...it might be the QBs fault? Or he could take a step like all 2nd year QBs do and show more of what he was drafted to do? You might've reached something beyond pessimism lol whatever. Good luck evaluating and fleshing out a roster constantly churning a position that doesn't rotate. Now with even less preseason games.
And edit in the last comment because I can't remember it all. Why wouldn't anyone want a NTC?
#154 by mehllageman56 // Aug 29, 2022 - 11:28pm
I actually like Pickett a lot. Willis.... well, I watched his college tape and his preseason tape, and yeah, I'm good with Zach Wilson on that one.
You are correct about their last draft pick being in the 4th, and that being a problem. Any team is better off with more lottery tickets, and I would not have moved up for Johnson. Skylar Thompson is a lottery ticket, but I have a bad feeling it's going to pay off really well for one of the Jets' rivals. All that said, the Jets had 7 picks this year, it's just that they were all in the top half of the draft.
As far as building around the QB, the Jets have definitely done that the last two years. But Wilson has shown less to me than Fields is, and Wilson is surrounded by talent and Fields is stuck with no one around him. Hence, the qualms around the team this year.
As far as NTC, why should Garappolo care about it? If he gets traded he starts. If his agent argued for that clause, he probably left some money on the table. So he's probably thinking he's starting in SF, and hopes they'll go as far as they have when he's quarterbacked them in the past.
#155 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 30, 2022 - 12:08am
Only in the first round. Surely not giving up Sauce. Giving up Wilson doesn't leave you with a clear WR1. Gone after that. And Pickett isn't even confirmed good yet.
J. Johnson isn't the trade up you would've done? That's bait.
I...don't see how it's going to pay off for when there is no path for play time outside freak accidents (plural). If they cut him, you think he'll just come right in and start for the Jets and beat Baltimore week 1? Then just straight beat out Wilson and lead the great team, outside the QB you said, to the SB? Imma say no to that happening...anytime soon.
All that said, the Jets had 7 picks this year, it's just that they were all in the top half of the draft.
I'm sorry, is this a problem? Lol. That's the dream.
As far as building around the QB, the Jets have definitely done that the last two years. But Wilson has shown less to me
It's only been...a year...in which they had the third lowest SB odds and ended up right where they were expected? Like...IDK what you were expecting to get done in the first year but, you're basing it off of...5 pre season passes? Of course that was only this preseason (quite the opposite last year). I wasn't even the biggest Wilson fan and here I am defending him. Give young QBs time to grow instead of siphoning their reps to a guy that every team passed on multiple times. I'm giving Wilson all the resources so I can confirm whether or not he's it. 13 games at age 22 isn't enough.
As far as NTC, why should Garappolo care about it?
Because it gives him more power seems too obvious but it's true.
If his agent argued for that clause, he probably left some money on the table.
Washed Jimmy Graham had one. They aren't hard to get and aren't that big of deal. Like you said, where ever he goes he (probably) starts. Why would SF be scared of giving him that for a year when his cap hit drastically reduces while providing some stability?
#159 by Aaron Brooks G… // Aug 30, 2022 - 9:13am
5 year KSU Skylar.
Guy missed a year due to injury. Russell Wilson had more college miles than Thompson did. Hell, Wilson threw more passes and played almost as many games at NC State as Thompson did at KSU -- and then changed schools and played an additional year after his baseball sabbatical!
I'm not sure why age/mileage seems to matter here.
#12 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 11:57am
About Araiza.
Once again, perhaps my comments will come off as controversial, but here's just my two cents. I am, in general, leery of people losing their jobs over civil allegations.
In reading the documents from the NFL arbiter over Deshawn Watson, it appears nothing he did was criminal but it crossed a bunch of ethical lines. And their conclusion after careful analysis was that he did it. Ok.
Well, in reading about what has been alleged about Araiza, there's a ton of "criminality" in what has been stated. So the fact that no arrests or charges have been filed is extremely odd to me. And since its now at the civil level where nothing definitive has been determined, I would prefer people not lose their jobs. Unfortunately, its bad pr and the fact that the guy is a punter.
#15 by serutan // Aug 29, 2022 - 12:03pm
I definitely wondered why there were no criminal charges (apparently it was never reported to the police at all) and why the suit was not filed until after Araiza made the team. It doesn't mean nothing happened, but at most he should have been put on the Commisioner's List until there was more clarity about the situation. But apparently 'innocent until proven guilty' doesn't mean much anymore.
#40 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:29pm
Let me ask a clarifying question.
If there were no gang rape allegations and instead he admitted that he had concentual sex with a 17yr old girl when he was 22, is he still going to get cut by the Bills? Is there still a public outcry for him to get cut? Are we still going to refer to him as a rapist?
#54 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:52pm
Statutory rape is a crime. Yes.
However, much like buying cocaine is a crime or marajuana if you are not in a particular state, I tend to think its unlikely such crimes get you fired/cut.
Look, this is not meant to be a defense of the punter. Its more to illustrate that we tend to pass guilty verdicts without hestitation. Sure, you can point to the statutory rape and say what a monster, but this truly rings hollow. I never committed statutory rape, but my friends have - they were 18 and 16 and were boyfriend and girlfriend in highschool. Just how prevalent is statutory rape when its limited to 16-17yr old girls and college kids? I doubt its a rare event if someone like me has seen it in highschool and in college. And no, I am referring to strictly voluntary concentual sex between both individuals - not cases where drugs were involved.
I will maintain - if he truly did what has been alleged, he deserves to be in jail. That absolutely makes him a monster. The fact that this hasn't yet gotten into criminal court is just bizzaire to me.
#71 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:19pm
A good many individuals and groups of individuals have worked very hard to ignore this matter.
You've got a typo in that sentence, let me fix it for you.
A good many individuals and groups of individuals have worked very hard to ignore matters like this.
#81 by big10freak // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:31pm
Why am I being corrected? I have not once downplayed the severity of this matter. In another thread I specifically asked why this topic was not being posted in the FO football news section as it is most definitely football related news
and if your response is that I am being too sensitive just know that this topic strikes close to home. So I work very hard to remain an evenhanded tone on the topic despite my personal views. But that should not be mistaken as being cavalier on this subject
#93 by big10freak // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:49pm
I was only stating that more than the university looked to avoid dealing with this specific situation. Which as everyone should know is pretty much SOP in these and similar matters.
I think you were looking to put me in my place as being unaware. Which I find baffling.
#97 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:06pm
Oh heck no, that wasn't what I was doing. The only place I'd disagree with you is the suggestion that people know that it's standard procedure. I mean, you're right, they should know. But I don't think most people do. Honestly if someone would come in and say to me "it's even worse than you think it is" that wouldn't surprise me.
#72 by Mike B. In Va // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:19pm
California actually has a "Romeo and Juliet" clause that covers that:
https://www.cwsdefense.com/blog/2020/june/exceptions-to-californias-statutory-rape-laws/#:~:text=Statutory%20Rape%20Laws%20in%20California,statutory%20rape%20under%20state%20law.
ROMEO AND JULIET EXCEPTION
When the accused and the victim are closer in age, the penalties for statutory rape can be less severe. “Romeo and Juliet” exceptions, also called “close-in-age” exceptions, are intended to prevent serious criminal charges against teenagers who engage in consensual sex with others close to their own age. In California, there is a type of Romeo and Juliet exemption for consensual sex between a minor and a person who is 3 or fewer years older or younger.
However, be aware that this is a limited exception that does not exempt the defendant from a criminal charge but merely reduces the conduct from a felony to a misdemeanor offense. The conduct is still illegal, but someone protected by this exception could incur smaller fines and reduced jail time. Note that this is an exception applied in all circumstances in California, so it is not considered a “law” in the sense that it must be argued in court.
OTHER STATUTORY RAPE DEFENSES
While the above exceptions are applied to the statutory rape laws in all scenarios, there are other defenses that you could potentially argue to fight a false charge. Defendants accused of statutory rape often claim they had no reason to know that their partner was underage, such as if the minor told them they were of age and another reasonable person would have believed it if told the same. Unlike in most states, mistake of age is sometimes a defense in California.
A person accused of statutory rape can also assert that there was no sexual intercourse between the defendant and the alleged. If the defendant did not engage in sexual activity with a minor, there is no crime of statutory rape. However, be aware that, unlike in the case of a rape charge, consent is not a defense to statutory rape in California, as statutory rape is based on the belief that those below the legal age of consent cannot give valid consent to sexual activity. As a result, consent will not work as a defense even if the minor attempted to give consent.
In Azaria's case it doesn't apply - though it sure sounds like they're going for "mistake of age" as mentioned above - and in practicality I doubt this is enforced very often in consenting relationships.
#44 by Mike B. In Va // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:38pm
The league, according to the BFlo sportswriters, anyway, couldn't do anything since he wasn't employed by the NFL when the events occurred. At least that was the league's stance on it as reported to Bills fans. I haven't researched it any further than that.
#69 by JimZipCode // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:16pm
I definitely wondered why there were no criminal charges (apparently it was never reported to the police at all)
This is false. It was reported the next day, and there was corroborating evidence.
I wasn't there, but it looks like prosecutors sat on it because football. Which is a sadly common tale. Also because college, which is another sadly common tale.
The lady went the civil route after getting no support from prosecutors. Another not-uncommon tale.
#17 by KnotMe // Aug 29, 2022 - 12:08pm
In Watson's case I don't think that it wasn't crimminal so much as there wasn't enough proof to bring criminal charges. (beyond a reasonable doubt is difficult with no physical evidence and no testimony from non-victims). Couldn't stand to read it that closely, but that was the impression I got.
Araiza reminds me of the Aaron Hernandez case. It was bad enough that the team cut him quick. If he gets cleared, he would probably get tryout at least.
#20 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 12:13pm
My issue here is that everyone seems to have concluded that the guy is a rapist and that he should be cut. Its as if everyone has predisposed his guilt. A cynic might say this is all just cheap virtue signaling. I am not saying the guy is innocent, but like 99.9 percent of the population, I have no idea what happened or what the truth is; so I prefer to remain agnostic until the investigation has concluded.
#48 by Noahrk // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:45pm
Yeah, the Watson situation is a bit muddled to my eyes, but Araiza looks guilty as sin and his actions are much more horrible. Like dryheat said, getting cut is not his punishment. Jail (or a large amount of money) will be his punishment, if guilty. Getting cut is just a down payment.
#60 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:00pm
Is just like MLKs white moderate. Meanwhile people are being hurt/raped/etc.
Nonsense. All evidence points to him as guilty. We don't need sit back and let a faulty justice system tell us how to think. Factual guilt isn't legal guilt.
He got $200k for signing. He's not going to be struggling to live anytime soon...outside of going to jail perhaps. Who cares if he's cut.
#75 by Aaron Brooks G… // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:25pm
Fun fact -- if two minors have sex in California, they raped each other.
Statutory rape charges involving people who are of similar ages aren't really popular with juries or the press, and are probably mostly a remnant of bringing convenient charges against minorities.
\like this was: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mann_Act
\\you're not racist, are you?
#90 by JimZipCode // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:42pm
My issue here is that everyone seems to have concluded that the guy is a rapist and that he should be cut. Its as if everyone has predisposed his guilt. A cynic might say this is all just cheap virtue signaling.
Maybe.
But no one (probably) is calling for the guy get thrown in jail without due process. He can get his day in court. In the meantime, it's not like there is zero evidence supporting the allegations; and some stuff is uncontested. The stuff that is uncontested is “bad enough”.
Making your employer look bad is usually a fire-able offense anywhere, and the uncontested allegations qualify.
#96 by big10freak // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:02pm
FWIW there are centuries of examples of those who faced consequences in the 'public square' even when governing bodies gave no judgement or indeed declared innocence.
OJ Simpson was a pariah well before ending up in prison as one quick example but again, this goes back a long way.
#98 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:13pm
But there are also counter examples which paint hideous pictures of what the public deems "appropriate social justice". I won't list them all here, but they are lengthy and run throughout human history across cultures and ethnicities; each one a tragic telling of the dangers of crowd delivered justice.
To follow up:
Assuming the public is right 90% of the time, I still don't think its acceptable to view the remaining 10% as cost of doing business/making an omlette and breaking some eggs in the process.
You might counter that the alternative presents a situation where a perpetrator receives no punishment whatsoever. And if I am being consistent, in my idealized world view, that may end up being the outcome, but I'd rather let the ire and outrage flow at our failing justice system.
As is often the case, I don't know if its usually so 100 percent victim or 100 percent perpetrator. There are likely answers somewhere in the middle, but rarely does public justice subsume such nuance.
#108 by dryheat // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:47pm
I imagine you'd feel different if you were the owner of say.....a movie theater, and the minimum wage guy scanning tickets was charged with drugging and gang-raping a minor.
Or maybe you would feel the same, but you'd probably sack him anyway. You're not doing either one of you a favor by keeping him.
#111 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:51pm
I try to be logically consistent in my world views. That means not having a bias in favor of income or other kinds of status. So no, I wuldn't have a different feeling in this case. I am, in general, uneasy about being punitive when a formal investigation hasn't been concluded.
#128 by dryheat // Aug 29, 2022 - 5:13pm
That's admirable. But on the one hand you have an ideological principle, and on the other is the actual world we live in. In my example, are you really going to continue to employ an easily-replaceable employee with federal charges of drugging and gang-raping a minor pending? In the meantime having protestors show up at your place of business every day, local and national news crews covering boycotts, vandalism, possible violence against employees, the real possibility of most of your employees quitting....
You'd be a more principled man than most....but I'm not sure that's a positive in this case.
*Edit. I just realized I wrote "charged" originally. My mistake, he is not, I don't think, facing charges at this time.
#130 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 5:25pm
If I am being honest and my livelihood was being threatened and the person in question was easily repleacable, it would be too difficult in today's climate to keep that person employed. So do I blame the Bills for doing this? No. Do I find their actions reprehensible? No.
My issue stems largely from the public's response to this. Whereas I would push for patience and a full search of the facts before action, that doesn't seem to be the way the zeitgeist is going.
Someone inevitably will say, but do I think this guy is guilty? I will respond with saying I don't know, knowing full well what has been alleged strikes me as entirely plausible and maybe even likely. Men taking advantage of women is a tale as old as time. And yet, I stick to my principles nonetheless and would prefer to hear the full facts. I never said one word of certainty about Watson until after the NFL arbiter submitted a full summary judgement; even though there were a dizzying number of women who came forward. Even then, I preferred to wait for some semblance of legal judgement before joining the clarion call for punishment.
#144 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 8:45pm
I appreciate it. And for the most part, the disagreements have been polite and informative. I have been very wary that this discussion might veer into a dangerous place where my points about patience get misconstrued as defending an alleged rapist.
#114 by JimZipCode // Aug 29, 2022 - 4:13pm
in general I don't like punitive actions taken on someone when no official legal judgement has passed.
Is there conduct that is not illegal, but still distasteful enough to be fire-able for a public-facing employee of an entertainment-based organization?
#116 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 4:29pm
Well, sure but if the person is denying it, is it fine to fire that person based purely on yet to be proven charges?
If you lie about some details of what's going on, then you're not necessarily being fired based on unproven charges, but based on lying to your employer. Which is always totally justified.
#119 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 4:32pm
Sure, no disagreement there. Is that why he was cut? I am genuinely asking because I don't know if the Bills asked him, "So tell us everything that happened and he willfully said things that turned out to be completely false.
#162 by Mike B. In Va // Aug 30, 2022 - 9:42am
It's certainly what McDermott suggested in his press conference.
The truth is, we don't know, and aren't ever likely to. A standard response from the player/lawyer team here would be "hey, this is nothing, it's gonna go away. No charges have been filed, and they won't be." Team is fine with that until the civil suit is filed, which changes the circumstances. By that point, they've released Haack, and need someone to punt on Friday. "Cut the kid after the last game."
<Firestorm ensues>
"Well, shit, who can punt? Cut the guy and move on, we don't need this OVER A PUNTER."
#169 by Pat // Aug 30, 2022 - 1:44pm
The truth is, we don't know, and aren't ever likely to.
Part of the problem is that they probably can't talk about certain conversations because it's an ongoing case. Might seem strange to say that but generally if they have information that'd affect the case you'd rather that come out in court than in the media. They very clearly said that there are things they shouldn't talk about on advice from team lawyers.
#145 by mansteel // Aug 29, 2022 - 8:48pm
As someone with a college-age daughter, I would undoubtedly feel differently than the OP (and I) do if it were my daughter. Two points:
1. I have 100% trust that my daughter wouldn't try to spin the situation to make herself look better (she is, by temperment, more likely to do the opposite), let alone make something up completely.
2. Disregarding point #1, it is not to my credit that I would have a different opinion because I am emotionally close to the situation. This is why potential jurors are dismissed if they have a connection to the case.
#150 by ImNewAroundThe… // Aug 29, 2022 - 9:24pm
at hand.
He admitted it. We don't have to try this as some fun philosophical musing of "but I don't really know what he did. So what if it really was like this, did he really have to be cut for it?"
Exhausting. Dude defended Gruden over the basis of freedom speech. And, I'll mention yet again, nothing has changed in that regard. Gruden was a scumbag, who cares if he was fired (even though he wasn't but the philosophically musing "but was essentially fired" is boring).
There are no ramifications to this. A scumbag punter was cut, as he rightfully should've been. "Logically" talking yourself into being the devils advocate is tiring.
"Sorry, honey, it's not that I don't believe you but it's just not right for me to logically believe everything without it going through the legal process, which especially in this country, is amazing!" just ugh. "But thanks for being civil. Let me distract with a story about the time I kicked the ball right to Devin Hesters coaches brothers best friend. Ahhhh. Good times."
#19 by Shylo // Aug 29, 2022 - 12:11pm
Feel like Tanier didn't want to say too much on Araiza lest he point out last week's title didn't age too gracefully. It's not looking good for Araiza, but we live in social media-fueled, hot take heavy, 24/7 times that most people call for immediate action as opposed to "wait and see". The thing I hate the most though is the Bills getting unearned praise for cutting Araiza when if it was Josh Allen it'd be business as usual, and vice versa with the Browns.
#45 by Mike B. In Va // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:44pm
Henry Ruggs III isn't in jail yet, but, yeah, you're probably right. The timing of the lawsuit pretty much ensured he'd get cut, which makes the lawyer an idiot or having some other agenda than money, i.e. making Azaria radioactive and unemployable.
#76 by JimZipCode // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:25pm
The timing of the lawsuit pretty much ensured he'd get cut, which makes the lawyer an idiot or having some other agenda than money, i.e. making Azaria radioactive and unemployable.
If my client had been raped, possibly drugged, and had her belly-button piercing ripped out, I would look at “making the perpetrator radioactive & unemployable” as a good start.
I kinda think the primary purpose of the lawsuit is to shame prosecutors into moving forward with the case. If that's true, then impacting Araiza's ability to pay punitive damages is beside the point.
#87 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:35pm
I am pretty naive clearly, but if there is someone in law enforcement who is reading these threads, I wish they could offer a reason why the prosecutors are so negligent in obvious rape cases like this?
It strikes me as betraying your training, your ethics, and the public in a very stark, hard to justify kind of way. Unless SDSU is paying off the prosecutors. That would at least be easier to square in my head even though that would actually be an even more horrifying breach of humanity.
#92 by Aaron Brooks G… // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:49pm
Most people get away with most crimes and resources are limited. So prosecutors are often reticent to spend too much time and money working up a case whose evidence will always be non-conclusive (even knowing intercourse took place often doesn't help you in a rape case -- it may not even be a contested fact) and which may only turn into a testimony-heavy technical misdemeanor built around an interpersonal dispute being fought using third-parties. (Domestic battery cases aren't popular with the police/prosecutors either)
So it's a potentially high-profile case against a willing and capable defendant involving what might be a family crying rape because it involves a technically-underage girl whose net result may only plausibly be a misdemeanor charge. (Which it will probably become if you can't make 'forcible' stick)
There's a lot less bang for your buck than figuring out how the corpse in the ditch got dead and by whom.
#167 by Mike B. In Va // Aug 30, 2022 - 11:07am
I kinda think the primary purpose of the lawsuit is to shame prosecutors into moving forward with the case. If that's true, then impacting Araiza's ability to pay punitive damages is beside the point.
That might very well be true. There's really no bad press from their side at this point.
#109 by IlluminatusUIUC // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:47pm
If hes Josh Allen, unless he's sent to jail, he's never getting cut.
There are different cap implications to consider, not just star power. Supposedly the fact that the act happened before Araiza was in the NFL meant he was beyond NFL discipline. So the Bills would not have been able to just void Allen's contract in a similar situation (obv unless he went to jail as you said). If the Bills cut Allen, we'd be 70+ million over the cap a week from the season, which would entail cutting almost the entire starting 22 just to field a roster.
What would happen is the same thing that happened to Watson in Houston: Play back up safety in practice just the minimum to avoid violating the CBA, be inactive on game days until the #s worked to let him go.
#83 by JimZipCode // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:33pm
Feel like Tanier didn't want to say too much on Araiza lest he point out last week's title didn't age too gracefully.
Yeah, I've been trying to hold my tongue about Tanier's take on Araiza's first preseason game, and the teams that drafted other punters ahead of Araiza.
Tanier is in the “takes” business, and the thing that makes him interesting to read is precisely the thing that exposes him to hindsight criticism. Not fair to enjoy him for 10-15 yrs and then try to gotcha him when something terrible and previously-unknown (publicly) is revealed about a player.
(Esp given how much I enjoyed watching Ray Rice play in Baltimore.)
#13 by serutan // Aug 29, 2022 - 11:57am
The offensive line is about 60% complete at best, but the Steelers can win a bunch of YAC-and-sacks games this year,
The "sacks' part will also apply to the PITT QB and is IMO why Trubisky should be the starter and take the beating. And you may be right that that beating will force Pickett on to the field even if it's later than mid September.
#30 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 12:27pm
I guess my point was, did people think that Steelers team was good enough to support Big Ben starting the way its been implied that this Steelers team isn't ready to start someone like Pickett.
I think, without the benefit of hindsight, you could make argument that this Steelers team is better than that Steelers team was coming into the regular season.
Now, I happen to think the 2004 Steelers are one of the most talented rosters I have seen, but that's all after the fact. Coming into the season, the only thing I was certain of about the Steelers was their receiving talent was pretty good(I wasn't sold on Burress and I thought Ward was overrated, but those were my preseason expectations), and they had a good pass rusher in Joey Porter. I thought the defense otherwise would be hamstrung by bad coverage especially since that Polamalu fella was looking like a terrible bust.
#51 by serutan // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:47pm
I guess my point was, did people think that Steelers team was good enough to support Big Ben starting the way its been implied that this Steelers team isn't ready to start someone like Pickett.
I honestly don't remember if the 'support' argument was made w.r.t. Ben or not. My fallible memory tells me that a lot of it was that Ben was from a mid major conference and at that time QBs from those conferences were not considered NFL ready off the bat. Also at that time my recollection was that if a QB was drafted in the first round but outside the top 10 there wasn't anywhere near the pressure to get him into the lineup right away like there is now.
#80 by Aaron Brooks G… // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:30pm
Maddox was a decent starter and was a fungible replacement QB for a team who had started decent but not great QBs since Bradshaw got old. And Roethlisberger was touted, but still just a toolsy small-school guy from a mediocre MAC team.
#33 by big10freak // Aug 29, 2022 - 12:57pm
Jenkins' has since developed a non-knee injury that has kept him from practicing.
Christian Watson has been practicing but was held out of the last preseason game.
Rodgers had a three hour interview with Joe Rogan that further cemented his rep as a weirdo
#35 by ChrisLong // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:12pm
Both, but mostly how he admitted to misleading everyone last season about his vax status but then somehow turned himself into a victim because the media was trying to do a take down of his character or something. As if he wasn't the person who lied and misled the whole time.
#36 by big10freak // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:23pm
First, Rodgers can do what he wishes (within the bounds of decency) and say what he wishes in the public domain.
That being stated as I have now stated far too often in this forum Rodgers is a weirdo and with each passing non-football interview/public interaction he only further confirms my assessment. At this point Rodgers is what used to be termed in a less gentle world as an idiot savant. Rodgers is amazing on the football field. Off the field he strings words together that have little to no rationale, carries grudges against both known and unknown entities and presents himself as a font of wisdom supported by only by his knowing almost smirking smile versus actual facts.
Again, he is welcome to sashay through the remainder of his life in this fashion. Doesn't mean I cannot say the emperor not only has no clothes but he's a loon
#46 by theslothook // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:44pm
To be honest, I quite admire the fact that Rogers is willing to be himself in interviews.
Now granted I lost a lot of respect for him for lying about not getting vaccinated. And I don't follow much of what he says And the few things I remember I don't agree with at all. But I at least find it refreshing that he's so willing to put himself out there. By contrast, I have no idea what Tom Brady is like in person. I similarly have no idea what Peyton Manning is like in person.
#52 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:49pm
By contrast, I have no idea what Tom Brady is like in person. I similarly have no idea what Peyton Manning is like in person.
The fact that I have no idea what Tom Brady or Peyton Manning is like as a person makes them, to me, by default, less like weirdos. Because wanting to be interviewed on random topics is a pretty friggin' weird personality type.
#55 by big10freak // Aug 29, 2022 - 1:55pm
As mentioned upthread, the most common element if not THE focus of pretty much every Rodgers non-football interview contains:
--him being persecuted by some entity (person unnamed, agency unnamed, possibly the Nazgul,maybe the Ya Ya sisterhood, other)
--Rodgers recounting on how he has succeeded despite this burden of persecution
--Rodgers sharing how he is really super-duper smart as confirmed by one expert A Rodgers
--Rodgers health tips which are almost all 'kept away from the public because otherwise the healthcare industrial complex will cease to exist'
#66 by big10freak // Aug 29, 2022 - 2:13pm
Rodgers likely would have benefited greatly if much earlier in his life redditt were around and he could post on the "Am I the ***hole?" thread. And received much needed feedback earlier in his development as a person.
#99 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:18pm
That wasn't ridicule. It's a joke. You're suggesting comments made on the Internet could change someone. Guess it didn't come off right.
I mean, I'm actually pretty sure that part of Rodgers's problem is that the Internet exists.
#103 by Aaron Brooks G… // Aug 29, 2022 - 3:36pm
You're suggesting comments made on the Internet could change someone.
In rebuttal:
https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2004/03/19/green-blackboards-and-other-anomalies
You absolutely can change because of the internet. It's just likely not for the better.
#121 by Pat // Aug 29, 2022 - 4:34pm
That's why it didn't come off right - it was more in reference to people like Rodgers. People who lack self-reflectivity (is that a word? introspectivity? I dunno) will only have their opinions reinforced by the Internet, because they'll dismiss opinions that criticize them and find only additional opinions to support them (hence the echo chamber term).