Aaron Rodgers and the Jets: Low Floor, Low Ceiling

Jets QB Aaron Rodgers
Jets QB Aaron Rodgers
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Offseason - By (finally) acquiring Aaron Rodgers, the New York Jets just traded one 10-win season for having no first-round pick and no quarterback in 2024.

That’s not the catastrophist scenario, the pessimist scenario or the smart-aleck scenario. That’s the most likely scenario.

The sportsbook over-under for Jets victories in 2023 remains at 9.5, where it has been since the Rodgers negotiations started. Ten wins is reasonable. You can talk us into 11 wins. Good luck talking anyone but Fireman Ed into 12 or more wins, in a tough division in a brutal conference. A playoff win? Sure. But a conference championship loss is the absolute peak for the Rodgers Jets this year. Just ask Green Bay Packers fans.

Then comes next offseason, more darkness retreats, more soul-searching, more questions about a 41-year-old in the de-facto final year of his contract. What are the odds that Rodgers still wants to play, and for the Jets, in 2024? What are the odds that Rodgers, currently in the midst of a three-season slide in nearly every statistical category of note (including DVOA and DYAR), is still even a “win with”-caliber quarterback in 2024?

Yes, there’s a chance that Rodgers takes the Jets to the Super Bowl this year. There are also lots of chances that he gets hurt, declines due to age or just flakes out. The risk-reward ratio leans rather heavily toward “risk.” If you plug in a repeat of last year’s numbers, or even an average of last year and 2021, then give the rest of the AFC standard injury luck, you’re going to land at around 10 wins. 

Rodgers is the second-best quarterback in the AFC East. He might be a top-five quarterback in the conference, depending on who is healthy, under contract, and so forth come September. The Jets roster is brimming with young talent, but they look more like a 2024 Super Bowl contender on paper than a win-now team. They’ve lined themselves up to experience the ultimate “Now What?” let down after a loss to the Chiefs next January in which a creaky Rodgers walks off the field scowling. They risk veering into Chris Ballard Colts territory, bouncing from geezer to reclamation project to geezer while Sauce Gardner and company grow more expensive and antsy. 

Think of the roads the Jets chose not to travel this offseason. There was Derek Carr, of course. They could have inquired about Trey Lance. The way the draft board is starting to shape up, they could also have tried to muscle their way up to land C.J. Stroud or one of the other rookie quarterbacks. Heck, a package for the first overall pick and Bryce Young might once have been possible for a team with two second-rounders and some young pieces the Bears would have found enticing. 

Even in decline, Rodgers is a better pure quarterback than Carr, Lance or any rookie in 2023. But any of those quarterbacks would be better than no quarterback at all in 2024, and most of them would have cost the Jets far less. A few of them would even have provided slim Super Bowl hopes this year, and perhaps not-so-slim hopes next year.

The Rodgers trade is a victory for Jets fans who just want to tailgate on Sundays, watch touchdowns, drink shots at the bar and send their Patriots-fan brothers-in-law corny memes after victories. Rodgers is a great acquisition if you ignore statistical trends, draft-value charts and deep-diver Internet analysis culture. He makes the weekly Jets fan experience better for the next eight months or so. There's something to be said for all of that. 

Long term? Rodgers’ arrival is a potential disaster, even if he’s a moderately happy camper all year. But Jets fans are used to disasters.

Comments

94 comments, Last at 28 May 2023, 1:08am

#1 by theslothook // Apr 25, 2023 - 10:27am

Summarized well. Frankly, I don't think the Jets front office was too dumb to realize this. I blame this on the owner and his typical lust driven decision making.

Points: 5

#2 by carlosla // Apr 25, 2023 - 10:51am

I share the suspicion that this was driven by a meddling Woody Johnson. Guy inherited his fortune, bought the Jets and 23 years later has yet to put together any kind of success. Woody is a great argument for higher inheritance tax! ;-)

Points: 3

#17 by Noahrk // Apr 25, 2023 - 1:04pm

Just like Brady to Miami was driven by Ross. All hail meddlesome owners.

Points: 1

#3 by ImNewAroundThe… // Apr 25, 2023 - 11:24am

You keep saying no QB in 2024 like it's a bad thing (start over fresh), or even true. Both Wilson and Rodgers are under contract for a combine <$44m cap hit (7 QBs alone are higher, including Daniel Jones)! And there's a good chance Rodgers would not want to give it up. Hence why there were light protections. 

Feels like this was written long before the trade actually happened. 

Points: 0

#4 by theslothook // Apr 25, 2023 - 11:39am

I want to explore the other angle of this with respect to GB and the long term; especially the really long term. Two things are true. The Packers have had the longest stretch of largely uninterrupted success; three decades powered behind MVP QB play - the exact profile that drives fandom, TV ratings, and prime time viewership.  They also play in by far the smallest market in the NFL.

 

All of this could be rendered moot if Love is great or they find a worthy successor down the road. However, the most likely outcome is middling results that have largely followed most of the franchises in the NFL. Even the better scenarios are one's lived by the Cowboys or the Falcons where you get a nice period of pretty good QB play a bunch of playoff appearances but few to no deep playoff runs, let alone a SB. 

 

But then there's the darker scenarios that are all too familiar. The long 10 year droughts that absolutely tank the franchise. I am talking about extended fallow periods that have been lived by the Raiders in the 2000s, the Jaguars and the Jets in 2010s or in the ultra extreme case - the Cleveland Browns. Where the talent drains and your QB carousel goes from plucky but bad qbs like Charlie Fry and Derrick Anderson in between stints with busts like Johnny Manzel and Brandon Weeden.

 

And then what happens in that scenario? Do the Packers get urged to leave Wisconsin for a bigger market? Do free agents truly stop coming there because there's no Rodgers allure (as he believed)? Does a rich owner blow over the shareholders and then move the team in the middle of the night like Robert Irsay?

 

I am not making such a prediction, but I do wonder what some of the truly awful long term consequences could be in the aftermath of this decision  

Points: 4

#6 by theslothook // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:04pm

So I don't know how this works for the NFL, but Twitter for example, was a publicly owned company that became a pet project for a megalomaniac who proceeded to take a flamethrower to the whole thing. 

Points: 0

#9 by BigRichie // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:07pm

The Packers are owned by their fans. Legally so, each with their own unsellable stock certificate. Thousands and thousands of them.

I think their corporate documents even say they can't be moved from Green Bay.

Points: 4

#12 by theslothook // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:12pm

Doing a quick google search doesn't really provide clear cut answers other than, if the NFL ever wanted it done, they could. 

Points: 0

#15 by BigRichie // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:41pm

Green Bay Packers Inc. on Wikipedia.

500,000 fans own 5 million shares of no dividends allowed stock. Which shares cannot be sold, only inherited. There's a (low) cap on how many shares any one individual can hold.

The Green Bay Packers cannot be sold. Only dissolved, with whatever proceeds all going to a designated charity.

The NFL would have to strip League membership from the franchise. Which I'm guessing is legally improbable to the Nth degree, tho' I'll defer to any lawyers here. (and I do wonder how a stockholder would sue for damages for a stock he's legally barred from profiting on)

Points: 2

#27 by rpwong // Apr 25, 2023 - 3:28pm

I took the Lambeau Field tour while driving cross-country a few years ago, and an explanation of the franchise's ownership was part of it. The tour guide was a retiree who was extremely proud of his single share in the Packers.

Points: 1

#28 by hoegher // Apr 25, 2023 - 4:10pm

Can't the team buy back the shares at any time for like a dollar?

Points: 0

#29 by hoegher // Apr 25, 2023 - 4:10pm

Can't the team buy back the shares at any time for like a dollar?

Points: 0

#62 by hoegher // Apr 26, 2023 - 5:55pm

I misremembered, it's a right to buy back the stocks if the "owner" doesn't exercise their voting rights in the last five years.

https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1460636458583314433

Points: 1

#59 by Theo // Apr 26, 2023 - 1:27pm

I agree. The megalomeniac shouldnt have used a flamethrower. 

A nuke would've had a much better result. 

Points: 1

#63 by justanothersteve // Apr 26, 2023 - 6:05pm

Technically the Packers can be sold and moved. But all money from the sale goes to a local American Legion post originally or the Green Bay Packers Foundation since a recent shareholder vote that may or may not have legal standing. So there would probably be a bunch of lawsuits even before a potential sale as to who gets the money. But there's no incentive to sell the team as long as owning an NFL franchise is basically the safest investment you can make if you can afford and get a team. Just ask Dan Snyder. 

Points: 1

#65 by BigRichie // Apr 26, 2023 - 6:27pm

Citation, please.

(and how is owning a stock certificate which can neither pay you a dividend nor bring you money back in sale an "investment"??)

Points: 0

#8 by serutan // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:04pm

The Packers aren't going anywhere; I think that you're vastly overestimating the chances that enough people would sell their shares.  Also I have this niggling memory there's something in the way the ownership is structured that makes moving next to impossible.

  They were mostly terrible in the 70s and 80s but still survived until Favre and Reggie White showed up.

Points: 1

#10 by theslothook // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:08pm

To be clear, I am not suggesting its likely. A lot of these thoughts are coming to me because I live in the Bay Area and I have watched the city of Oakland effectively lose or about to lose all three of its major sports teams in a matter of 5 years. This is a danger kind of the end game when a team plays in a small market and doesn't have a lot of success. 

Points: 0

#30 by PackerPete // Apr 25, 2023 - 4:22pm

The Packers have sold out every game since Lambeau Field opened in 1960. Today, the seating capacity exceeds 80,000, 2nd only to the Meadowlands. 

Even if the team could be sold, (and it can't), there would be cars, semis and people blocking the freeways out of town. This is the fans' team and it's viewed that way. 

Points: 3

#50 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 26, 2023 - 8:11am

SF isn’t a small market.

It also isn’t Green Bay.

Points: 0

#80 by Exystence // Apr 27, 2023 - 1:43pm

Ask the Tampa Bay Rays about the damage that being in the wrong location in a big market can do.

Points: 0

#91 by hifidelity // Apr 30, 2023 - 8:07pm

Green Bay's (media) market size doesn't matter a whit as revenues are shared across the league.   Their gate and merch are at least competitive with the best teams in the league.

They may be entering an era of the long rebuild (says a Lion fan) but that won't precipitate a move

Points: 0

#14 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:27pm

“They were mostly terrible in the 70s and 80s but still survived until Favre and Reggie White showed up.”

I was about to comment exactly this before you beat me to it.  Aside from legal aspects of moving (as other posters have pointed out)  I’m old enough the remember some terrible Packers teams being quarterbacked by the likes of Anthony Dilweg and Randy Wright, yet they still got enthusiastic fan support as far as I remember.

Points: 0

#21 by TyWill40 // Apr 25, 2023 - 2:23pm

Why does everyone remember Anthony Dilweg? Lol... I think he started one or two games... funny thing his second cousin went to school with me and his Aunt was a local judge in Green Bay. Also, I remember him because at Thanksgiving one of my pre-teen cousins announced at the dinner table "We have a nickname for him. We call him Dildo"... which promptly brought all Thanksgiving chatter to an end

Points: 2

#54 by Joey-Harringto… // Apr 26, 2023 - 8:37am

His memorable name is probably why I remembered him.  I also remembered Mike Tomczak starting some games when Majkowski was injured (which was pretty often).

Points: 1

#66 by KnotMe // Apr 26, 2023 - 7:32pm

People willing to go to football games in an uncovered stadium in Northern Wisconsin are not going to be put off by a small thing such the team being bad for a while. They are probably a top 3 dedicated fanbase in teh NFL and probably rank fairly high overall. 

Points: 4

#84 by BigRichie // Apr 27, 2023 - 11:57pm

Green Bay is more central than northern Wisconsin, and Lake Michigan moderates things a bit, too. So Ice Bowl notwithstanding, typically ain't all that bad.

Points: 0

#92 by Cheesehead_Canuck // May 01, 2023 - 4:10pm

I'm in Canada, albeit a mild part of it, and Green Bay is colder and snowier than what we get. It might not be the snowiest NFL city but it is surely the coldest one with an open air stadium.

Points: 0

#20 by TyWill40 // Apr 25, 2023 - 2:17pm

The Packers cannot be moved, nor are they a "small market" franchise. They are a national franchise with greater popularity nationwide than so-called "large market" franchises like the Chargers and Rams and Jets. 

As far as free agents not coming to Green Bay, in the salary cap era they will go whereever the greenbacks lead them. The Packers have gone through long droughts in the past and have survived and even thrived. They will be fine.

Points: 2

#23 by theslothook // Apr 25, 2023 - 2:33pm

They are a national franchise with greater popularity nationwide than so-called "large market" franchises like the Chargers and Rams and Jets.

 

Couldn't that be related to the fact that they've had 30 years straight of Hall of Fame quarterback play? Something that seems really unlikely to continue

Points: 2

#40 by armchair journ… // Apr 25, 2023 - 8:57pm

I think its equally related to their market actually being Milwaukee / greater Wisconsin. The location of the stadium is fairly irrelevant (see: Arlington Cowboys, et al)

Points: 2

#43 by BigRichie // Apr 25, 2023 - 10:22pm

In rural America Green Bay is everyone's 2nd favorite team. Unless you have no allegiance to whomever the nearest Big City franchise is, in which event Green Bay is far more likely than anyone else to be your favorite team.

Points: 1

#74 by bravehoptoad // Apr 27, 2023 - 11:57am

Dallas? I think I've seen them as favorite team or 2nd favorite team is some places quite far-flung from Texas, Nevada to Montana to Virginia. 

Points: 1

#77 by Theo // Apr 27, 2023 - 12:49pm

When I was growing up in the Netherlands in the 80s and 90s, you would see a whole lot of Dolphins, Redskins and Raiders merchandize. Some Cowboys, but those other three is what I remember the most. Mostly jackets and caps.

Not that anyone knew what sport they were or what city it came from...

I wonder who or what decided that those 3 teams had to be sold overseas the most.

Points: 0

#51 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 26, 2023 - 8:17am

No. Their fans were crazy even when Majowski was their best QB in 25 years.

Points: 0

#64 by Beavis // Apr 26, 2023 - 6:15pm

Cowboys remain a national franchise despite what? 1 playoff game win in like 30 years?

Points: 2

#67 by KnotMe // Apr 26, 2023 - 7:34pm

I feel like the Cowboys are national franchise because the owner basically said they were and the league decided to believe it. "who died and made you america's team?"

Points: 0

#44 by guest from Europe // Apr 26, 2023 - 2:07am

Do free agents truly stop coming there because there's no Rodgers allure (as he believed)?

Packers rarely try to get any free agent ever. Sometimes they do get C. Woodson, but it's very rare. Recently they tried S. Watkins, J. Graham, M. Lewis, ... some management failures.

 

What will happen to the Packers without HOF QB? The Patriots are the closest comparison, not the Colts.

Points: 0

#49 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 26, 2023 - 8:10am

That would not have been avoided by retaining Rodgers for this year.

Points: 1

#94 by cwilson830 // May 28, 2023 - 1:08am

Unless all their owners are moving, I don't see the Packers moving any time soon.

And is it really that huge of a decision to let him walk, considering he's about to fall off the QB cliff at any moment?

Points: 0

#7 by BigRichie // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:04pm

The "three season decline" thing is pretty garbagy, Mike. One MVP year, one year where he was again good enough to be voted MVP, then last season.

It's a "one season decline" by any rational measure.

Points: 6

#11 by serutan // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:08pm

Given that MVP is completely subjective (otherwise non QBs would have a chance at it) I wouldn't put much stock in an MVP saying anything at all about whether a QB was declining (or for that matter on the rise) or not.

Points: 0

#13 by theslothook // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:13pm

Still, Rodgers was #1 in DVOA in 2021 and probably deserved the MVP unless you want to ding him for missing a game due to covid and lying about it. 

 

If we are being honest, this was Rodgers' one terrible year by his standards and it comes with the astrix that he had 0 proven receivers to throw to. So its murky how much of that decline is due to age or supporting cast. The problem though is we are now adding an additional year of age to Rodgers; meaning even if last year's results were due entirely to the supporting cast, he could still suffer an age related decline. 

Points: 5

#35 by serutan // Apr 25, 2023 - 5:56pm

Fair enough.  The first post only cited MVP, and MVP by itself is not a good indicator.

Points: 0

#69 by Theo // Apr 26, 2023 - 11:42pm

Asterix on a football team would be awesome, though. 

Points: 2

#71 by TimK // Apr 27, 2023 - 3:37am

I strongly suspect Obelix would be better ;) - if nothing else Asterix is very short for most positions, might be unblockable as a edge rusher though…

(assuming mistletoe extract doesn’t detect as a PED).

Points: 3

#93 by Cheesehead_Canuck // May 01, 2023 - 4:14pm

Yes, this. Brady was mediocre in '19 carried largely by defense and coaching. Had a bad playoff game. Went to a STACKED Tampa team and look what happened for 2 more years. There was some typical Brady good voodoo, but the point remains.

Points: 0

#16 by guest from Europe // Apr 25, 2023 - 12:59pm

If you click on the link in the article and see his stats, the "decline" from 2020 to 2021 is about 1650 to 1550 DYAR. Not much. It's a 1 year sharp decline in 2022, not 3 years.

Tanier doesn't like Rodgers because he is too weird for him. Hence all these jokes about retreats, ayahuasca and so on.  

Points: 4

#46 by Raiderjoe // Apr 26, 2023 - 7:06am

M. Tanier, for a n Eags fan, has bizarre disliek of Jets. In comparison to hwo much he dislikes the Jets, he's practically a Giants fan

Points: 3

#52 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 26, 2023 - 8:19am

As a Lions fan, I dislike the Jets. They are the unfun kind of incompetent.

Points: 1

#82 by Exystence // Apr 27, 2023 - 3:46pm

He must have a really annoying Jets fan family member/friend/acquaintance of some sort.

Also, at least in a SB Nation poll where the options were "good move", "bad move", and "happy, but lost a lot", "happy, but lost a lot" had the plurality with 44%, which is basically where I'm at.  Not necessarily a representative sample, but I'm willing to bet that the fanbase's take on the matter is a lot more nuanced than "a victory for Jets fans who just want to tailgate on Sundays, watch touchdowns, drink shots at the bar and send their Patriots-fan brothers-in-law corny memes after victories."  Not that Mr. Tanier is saying or even implying that that's the majority sentiment amongst the fanbase, but, y'know, feeling a bit defensive over here anyway.

All of that said... I'm as jaded and pessimistic a Jets fan as any out there and am fully expecting the bottom to fall out, but I'm not gonna lie... The idea of having Aaron Rodgers (the player, mind you) as a Jet is making me smile the past two days.

Points: 2

#25 by RickD // Apr 25, 2023 - 2:59pm

His second recent MVP season (2021) was statistically worse than the prior season. (2020)  That means it's a decline.

Because that's what decline means.

If I go from the summit of Everest to the base camp, I'm higher than 99% of the world's population.  But I have gone in a downward direction.

This is a rational position.  

Points: -4

#33 by BigRichie // Apr 25, 2023 - 5:45pm

And if you use that to argue 'man look how low we are now!!!', you are being a friggin' idiot.

Points: 9

#18 by guest from Europe // Apr 25, 2023 - 1:12pm

The problem in all of this is that the Jets and Rodgers aren't a great fit. They are a young team and he is getting old.

This has worked for the 2020 Bucs. They had a great veteran defense and WRs. The Jets good players in those areas are very young.

It has worked for 2012 Broncos. They had D. Thomas and E. Decker and a great 2012 draft defense-wise. They had V. Miller and C. Bailey and so on...

It hasn't worked for 2008 Jets.

Points: 0

#47 by Raiderjoe // Apr 26, 2023 - 7:09am

2008 Jets 8-3 anbdn then B. Fvre hurt elbow played crappy rest of seaosm.

young seahawks players did nto stop that tema from pummeling Broncs in super bowl. 

 

not sure of Jets young defense beign negative thing here

Points: 1

#55 by guest from Europe // Apr 26, 2023 - 10:57am

It's not necessarily a negative that they are young. They would just have to grow really fast from being good rookies to Super Bowl contention. Their opportunity window is probably 2 years. Those Seahawks had some older players: M. Lynch, o-line (such as Unger), Bennet, Avril...

Points: 0

#58 by theslothook // Apr 26, 2023 - 12:47pm

I think a lot of the narratives surrounding the Broncos being an ideal landing spot for Manning came entirely with the benefit of hindsight. On top of the fact that most people felt like Manning was a dome QB and thus the outdoors would be a problem, the talent wasn't considered anything close to overwhelming. Yes they had some pieces that looked attractive; Von Miller, Elvis Dummervile, and Ryan Clady. But they also had Champ at the edges of his prime and DT who was considered a raw prospect. Many of the Tebow defenders were using the wide receivers as an excuse for why his numbers were so bad. Even Football Outsiders, in their preview, compared the dvoas for Kyle Orton against Tebow and found the receiving core to be rather lackluster. And of course, the Broncos were a bad team before Tebow got there and then lucked their way into a 500 record despite still being a bad team. Even the defense, by the numbers, was terrible when they didn't face a cupcake of opposing offenses. In short, lots of people thought Manning chose poorly; especially when the 49ers were there waiting for him.

 

Here's how I would square all of this. A terrible QB can make it very hard to determine who is any good on an offense. The whole thing just looks bad. In the reverse, an elite HOF QB can make everyone look amazing. He raises all boats. So going back to Rodgers; assuming he is still an MVP, everything on the Jets will look a lot better and suddenly talent will emerge in ways that look like found money in your jeans. 

Points: 1

#60 by guest from Europe // Apr 26, 2023 - 5:21pm

This is all fine and i agree. i also think 49ers were a better option than Broncos for Manning. I thought he wouldn't be able to play after neck surgeries. However, any DVOA numbers for Tebow's Broncos don't work. DVOA just can't handle such miracle plays. In 2010 they had turmoil with McDaniels...

D. Thomas was the first WR taken in 2010. There was a highlight of him beating Revis. He was injured in first 2 years. Decker's numbers were good for a 3rd round pick. If Manning could work with P. Garcon and A. Collie off the street, he could work with any WR. Thomas, Decker and E. Royal was more than good enough. Broncos o-line was good with Tebow and Orton?

This may sound dumb, but they had experience of playing in 2011 playoffs against great teams. These Jets, not so much experience. They want to be a contender immediately, in 2025 it will be too late. They have WR Wilson who should be very good, Corey Davis is injured?, there is now Lazard, potential of D. Mims, injury problems on o-line... I don't think Rodgers can do what Manning did with WRs off the street. This is again an outlier by Manning. He was a control freak and was probably running the practices of offense. Rodgers is way moodier, he kind of doesn't like pass catchers he doesn't know, in a game he tends to look only at WRs he "trusts"... Packers fans could describe this better.

My impression is that Rodgers relies on his talent which may have been the highest ever. He doesn't have team management skills of Brady and Manning and Brees. If other players won't be up to his standard, there will be problems. (That's way many people don't like him.)

Also, the Bills are in that division. No easy wins in that division.

 

A terrible QB can make it very hard to determine who is any good on an offense. The whole thing just looks bad. In the reverse, an elite HOF QB can make everyone look amazing.

Agree. We probably dissagree on how much such QB lifts all others. And this has to be HOF level, not just "regular" MVP.

You wrote in the other comment that there is a gap between Mahomes and every other QB. That would mean Rodgers isn't at that level anymore.

 

Points: 0

#72 by IlluminatusUIUC // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:46am

Also, the Bills are in that division. No easy wins in that division.

My god times have changed.

Points: 1

#88 by LionInAZ // Apr 29, 2023 - 10:18pm

My reading is that a young Jets team is not the problem at all. It's that the aging Rodgers doesn't demonstrate a lot of patience with young players. How many times do we have to see him with his hands on his hips and a disgusted look on his face after a failed play?

Points: -1

#19 by guest from Europe // Apr 25, 2023 - 1:59pm

I predict that Rodgers stays for 2024. He has another $50M coming for that year. He won't be on the Jets only if they bench him and release him after 1 year. If there is enough success, he probably keeps playing in 2025.

Strongly disagree with Tanier that this is 1 year exclusively.

Points: 2

#48 by Raiderjoe // Apr 26, 2023 - 7:13am

yeha. think A. Rodgers QB Cal three years with Jets more likelt than one season. Raiders are upcoming tema. Have roght quarterback now so will be real threat to Jets in 2023 but Jets in mix for winnign AFC. Have to say Bengaks there too, Chiefs, couple other teams maybe. Put Raiders, Chiefs, Bengals, jets written on poaper in hat and pick two pieces of paper out of hat and decenet enough chance you picked two 2023 AFC champiopnshjip gaem teams.   

Points: 0

#22 by CuseFanInSoCal // Apr 25, 2023 - 2:26pm

Also, the next time a WR has a good first year with Rodgers will be the first. If the Jets haven't made sure Rodgers is on board for 2024, this is a terrible deal for them.

/and I'm saying this as an unapologetic Packers fan who thinks the Packers mismanaged things starting with drafting Love (who I'll be shocked if he's starting in the NFL anywhere in 2026), followed by not franchising Adams, and although I love what I've seen from Watson, overpaying to trade up to get him and still making a 2nd round pick the highest drafted pass catcher in years.

Points: -1

#24 by ImNewAroundThe… // Apr 25, 2023 - 2:57pm

Greg Jennings had a career high 1300 yards in his first season with Rodgers.

And we did tag Davante. They unfortunately didn't do enough to convince him to stay but they did franchise him. 

Points: 1

#78 by CuseFanInSoCal // Apr 27, 2023 - 1:31pm

That wasn't his first season with Rodgers.

It was his first season with Rodgers *as the regular starting quarterback*, but Jennings joined the Packers in 2006.

Points: 0

#89 by LionInAZ // Apr 29, 2023 - 10:28pm

And Jennings played more games, had a lower ypc, and fewer TDs. Not to mention the Packers went from 13-3 to 6-10. Congratulations on winning a minor point that is irrelevant in the bigger picture. 

Points: -1

#90 by ImNewAroundThe… // Apr 30, 2023 - 5:06pm

You hate me so much you tried using tean winz(!), ypc (higher than his rookie year) and unstable touchdowns (higher than his rookie year) to try and dispute a commonly used metric of WR quality. That's nasty prolonged grudge holding. Less fumbles per game/touch too, along with career high yards per game, but I guess that doesn't fit your narrative

Points: 0

#26 by RickD // Apr 25, 2023 - 3:07pm

ESPN spent the entire day yesterday pumping up the Jets as a Super Bowl contender.  Mike Greenberg nearly gave birth on air.  Every guest claimed that the Jets have a top 5 roster at pretty much every position now.

I love when NY teams get overrated by the "national" press which, not coincidentally, is centered in NY. 

Let's pencil in the Jets as a "playoff contender" and not go nuts here.  No, they haven't leaped to the top tier of Buffalo/KC/Cincy.  At a minimum, they need to prove that.  It's reasonable to think of them in the next tier, along with Miami, Jacksonville, and Baltimore (if they get Lamar back).  Oh, right, and the Chargers.  (So forgettable.)  

I've seen this happen so many times in so many sports: NY teams are always overhyped.  Every offseason, the Yankees, Nets, Rangers, Knicks, or some other local team is suddenly the best team in the league.  Durant and Kyrie were supposed to bring a title to the city, and they left with only a first-round series win in their stay. 

Points: 0

#31 by guest from Europe // Apr 25, 2023 - 4:27pm

Mike Greenberg nearly gave birth on air. 

Is there a video clip of this? What should i search for? Giving birth on ESPN?

Points: 3

#34 by BigRichie // Apr 25, 2023 - 5:47pm

Remind me to never check in on your YouTube channel.

;-)

Points: 1

#36 by serutan // Apr 25, 2023 - 6:02pm

 

Mike Greenberg nearly gave birth on air. 

    From his expression on one still I saw, I think it more accurate to say he needed to run offstage and change his suddenly messy underwear.

Points: 0

#38 by Jetspete // Apr 25, 2023 - 7:06pm

This isn’t 1995. Espn is in Bristol which is halfway between NY and Boston. Yes they have a NY studio but they also have studios in like five or six places. Nfl network and fox have big studios in LA. Thanks to Covid, zoom allows many reporters to be stationed all over the map. 

Points: 2

#53 by Aaron Brooks G… // Apr 26, 2023 - 8:21am

Now now. ESPN is located such that it can fawn over both Boston and NYC teams.

Points: 3

#70 by Theo // Apr 27, 2023 - 12:37am

Wow, it almost seems as if Disney is trying to hook the largest amount of consumers. 

What a shock.

Points: 0

#37 by Jetspete // Apr 25, 2023 - 7:02pm

After the last decade, Relevancy is as important as winning. The jets have had the following horrible run:

- have not been on NBC since the buttfumble game - since thanksgiving of 2016 have had only one national doubleheader game (vs Dallas) 

- since Halloween 2019 just one Monday night game 

I expect we will have the maximum allowed primetime games, plus four or five double headers plus thanksgiving. 
unless you hit a home run at quarterback, you can’t guarantee winning in the nfl. But you can acquire relevancy. Jets fans will take that, enjoy the ride and hope for the best. 

Points: 2

#39 by theslothook // Apr 25, 2023 - 7:35pm

Not trying to throw shade, but it's that kind of rational that likely swayed Cleveland into trading everything that wasn't nailed down for Deshawn Watson and then handing him a contract that now looks totally ridiculous and one that carries enormous risk in more ways than one. 

 

There's paying a lot for excitement and then there's paying a lot for cheap thrills. It's not clear as of this moment which the jets are getting

Points: 2

#41 by armchair journ… // Apr 25, 2023 - 9:06pm

Right, but at the end of the day its a business.. and a business where irrelevance is deadly. Whether it makes sense as a football move is debatable; but as a market response, where attention is paramount, its hard to argue with. 

Points: 3

#75 by Hoodie_Sleeves // Apr 27, 2023 - 12:12pm

How is irrelevance deadly?

The Browns haven't been relevant in what, 30 years? And they're one of the least valuable of the NFL franchises. Pretty much everything branded is shared revenue. It doesn't matter how many Browns jerseys they sell, because they get the exact same $$ amount from a Cowboys jersey as they do a Browns Jersey. 

Since 2010 the franchise's value has quadrupled, and revenue sharing is significantly higher than expenses ($380m per team last year, $204m cap, $100m or so operating costs). There are very few businesses where relevance matters less. 

The least valuable NFL teams are still better investments than almost the entirety of sports. In the MLB, only the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Cubs are worth more than the Browns. In the NBA, only the Lakers, Knicks, Warriors, and Bulls are worth more. There are only 6  soccer teams worth more than the Browns (Real Madrid, Barcelona, Manchester United, Liverpool, Bayern Munich, and Manchester City). The average value of an NFL team is more than $1B more than any other sports league

Points: 3

#87 by armchair journ… // Apr 29, 2023 - 3:43pm

I think the Browns personnel moves (Watson and OBJ in particular) prove my point. The idea is to be relevant, grab some attention in an entertainment business, not to necessarily win games. The Browns might actually be exhibit A for this in the modern era, managing to generate consistent sportstalk attention (how many years have you seen Cleveland hyped as a preseason sleeper favorite?) while seldom actually fielding a team that could win their division (but rarely bottoming out completely). Your point would be better made pointing to Houston. 

Points: 0

#45 by guest from Europe // Apr 26, 2023 - 2:13am

A question to everyone following mock drafts and the drafting process: couldn't the Jets have waited with this trade until the draft? 

If i understand it, there will be 4 QBs drafted in the 1st round. Panthers, Texans and Colts will draft someone. There are rumours that some "QB is falling on the draft boards". Seahawks and Lions will probably draft other positions. Wouldn't it be possible that the Jets get that 4th QB with pick #13 like the Patriots got M. Jones? Falcons and Titans have drafted a QB last year.

In such a scenario the Jets gain a lot of leverage in negotiations with the Packers and probably wouldn't have to give up 2024 1st round pick. After completing the Rodgers trade, they could trade that young QB (pick #13) for some future draft picks.

Or some other team could have traded up to the #13 to get that young QB and the Jets would have a lot more draft picks.

Points: 0

#56 by Lost Ti-Cats Fan // Apr 26, 2023 - 11:13am

It's probably best for both NYJ and GB to have the deal done before the draft.  There's value to certainty.  Instead of drafting with a view to what they hope to accomplish with a trade, they can now both approach the draft with an understanding of exactly what they have to work with after the trade.

Points: 2

#61 by guest from Europe // Apr 26, 2023 - 5:37pm

It's good for Packers. I think the Jets could use all the players they could have drafted with picks #13,42,43. They could have traded 2024 1st and 2nd round pick for Rodgers. Not much difference in "pick value" compared to what they did give up, they would at least get 3 rookies instead of 2.

This wouldn't be important if Rodgers was younger and the Jets would have him for more years.

Apparently they need o-linemen again. What happened to Becton?

Points: 0

#73 by IlluminatusUIUC // Apr 27, 2023 - 10:49am

What happened to Becton?

He's had either consecutive knee injuries or one horrendous one that's kept him sidelined since September 2021. He's supposedly lost of ton of weight and wants to play closer to 350.

Points: 0

#57 by BigRichie // Apr 26, 2023 - 11:14am

Wouldn't help. Jets have to win 'THIS YEAR!' to save everyone's job. Having a young QB sit behind Rodgers won't do a single thing to help them win 'THIS YEAR!'

If a QB does drop to the Jets at #13, means that no one was interested in trading up to #12 to get him.

Points: 0

#76 by Hoodie_Sleeves // Apr 27, 2023 - 12:14pm

"In such a scenario the Jets gain a lot of leverage in negotiations with the Packers"

Sure, and in the scenario where one doesn't drop, and they don't draft a QB, they lose a ton of leverage. 

Points: 0

#79 by guest from Europe // Apr 27, 2023 - 1:34pm

Yes, if they lose such leverage, then they do the trade that they did 3 days ago during the draft. If all QBs are taken by draft slot #6 or something, they trade for Rodgers. 

I don't think Packers could have asked for more picks. The Jets gave  similar picks to what Ravens' price for Jackson would be and Rodgers has the most expensive (now tied with Hurts) contract in the NFL.

 

Edit: it turned out that there was that 4th QB available at draft slot #13. By selecting such rookie QB they would have added a lot of leverage in negotiations with Packers. If Packers don't give up their demands, they could have played that rookie for a year and waited 1 year for Packers to release Rodgers. Doesn't mean i was right and you were wrong. This was a possibility.

Points: 0

#85 by Hoodie_Sleeves // Apr 28, 2023 - 12:24am

The jets almost certainly would have paid more at draft time. That's what happens when all you're other options are gone. 

Points: 0

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