Will Anderson's Pressure Principles: Combine Preview

NFL Draft - Alabama Crimson Tide edge rusher Will Anderson recorded 81 pass pressures two seasons ago in 2021. That was the second-highest figure in the Sports Info Solutions database, dating back to 2016.

If you have ever sifted through college football statistics, you recognize how remarkable Anderson's 2021 pressure total was. Records are rarely held, set, or challenged by top prospects at power programs, but instead by some super-senior from the Sun Belt Conference who faced a few FCS schools during the weeks they were forced to start adjunct chemistry professors on the offensive line.

For example, Sutton Smith of Northern Illinois holds the "modern pressures record" (it's an unofficial stat in an unofficial-but-reliable database, hence the quotes) with 86 in 2017. Smith was no slouch: he was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year and Most Valuable Player in 2018, merited a sixth-round pick from the Steelers, and knocked around practice squads for several years. But he was a mid-major linebacker who racked up lots of production against directional Michigan schools. His pressure totals, under the circumstances, didn't really translate into NFL potential.

Note that Smith set the pressure record in 2017 but earned his DPOY/MVP honors in 2018. Smith's sack total increased from 14.0 to 15.0 in his final season, but his pressures dipped to 60. You can imagine the extra attention he got from opposing coaches and blockers.

Anderson's pressure totals also dipped in 2022: he finished third in the nation with 53 pressures, behind Laiatu Latu (UCLA, 61) and Jonah Tavai (San Diego State, 56) in 2022. We'll meet them in the 2024 draft. Anyway, Anderson also played fewer snaps in 2021 than 2022 (no championship games) and attracted even more attention from some of the best offensive lines south of the NFL, yet he was still among the most dangerous pass-rushers in the nation from a down-by-down statistical standpoint.

Anderson's film and his obvious tools and accomplishments will make him a top-five pick in the 2023 NFL draft. The pressure figures make him the No. 1 player in the FO 100 entering the scouting combine. When in doubt, choosing among Anderson, his teammate Bryce Young, and Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter, we'll choose to follow the numbers. Most of the time.

Not that Carter doesn't have some interesting numbers of his own. You may know that the 300-pound hunk of granite recorded just three sacks in 2022 and three others in 2021 for the two-time national champions. You may not know that he led all SEC defensive tackles with 33 pressures in 2022. He finished third in the conference to teammate Travon Walker and Alabama's Phidarian Mathis among players listed as defensive tackles with 29 pressures in 2021. Walker, of course, was the top overall pick by the Jaguars last year. Mathis was a second-round pick by the Commanders, who are addicted to Tide linemen (not a bad thing).

Tyjae Spears, DeWayne McBride, Rashee Rice, and Stats That Matter

It's great to have the Sports Info Solutions database and other statistical tools to confirm observations from watching game tape and film. I probably end up watching every Georgia game several times when prepping for a draft. But I don't have nearly the time to do that for every college team, and even the most informed draft experts would probably admit that they are basing ultra-detailed scouting reports on just a handful of games. Data provides a useful reality check.

For example, Tulane running back Tyjae Spears will be part of the FO 100 when it publishes right after the combine, unless he runs a 5.7s 40 or something. Spears had a mammoth 205-yard, four-touchdown game against USC in the Cotton Bowl, but he also lost a fumble in that game.

It's very tempting when watching a player make a mistake in a high-profile game to insert a little line like ball security may be an issue in his scouting report; after all, ball security might always be an issue, right? Well, that was Spears' only fumble of the season.

College fumble stats aren't always easy to track down. About 15 years ago, they were nearly impossible to track down. Now we can quickly discover that Spears held onto the ball well, while UAB's DeWayne McBride, a well-regarded prospect who will crack our Fantasy 40, fumbled five times, losing four of them.

Our goal with the FO 100 (coming soon, I swear!) is to provide data-infused draft coverage. My scouting reports should feel like a natural extension of tools such as QBASE, SackSEER, and BackCAST that you have trusted for years, and also the coverage I provided in the past for Bleacher Report and other outlets. Last year's FO 40 got about 40% of the way to where I hoped to be. This year, for the low price of an FO+ membership, you get more prospects, more stats, and more insights, plus some quotes from the players themselves, a few jokes, and other details you won't find elsewhere.

Most draft coverage at other outlets is decidedly data-averse. The fact that tools like the SIS database are expensive is a big reason why. The fact that college stats are misleading and difficult to interpret is another reason: no one wants to list a Sutton Smith as ER1 because his pressure figures say so. It takes an experienced draftnik and stathead to wade into the morass and come out with anything useful.

There's also a "prose of the vague" tradition dating back to real NFL scouting which has become the literary style of the draft scouting report. For complex reasons, few draft profile writers want to write a sentence such as Spears had a mammoth 205-yard, four-touchdown game against USC in the Cotton Bowl, perhaps because it sounds like box-score scouting. Ball security may be an issue is a much-more palatable phrase for draft profiles; you can imagine how such non-falsifiable, almost bureaucratic phrasing became common in a cutthroat profession where being quantifiably wrong too often could get you fired.

My biggest question when embarking on draft coverage is: what do you need, and what do you want? You, the reader, probably want to know that Spears rushed for 200 yards in a bowl game, Anderson's pressure totals were almost historic in 2021, Carter's pass-rush numbers are better than they look in the box score and (maybe most important of all) that McBride has a high risk of fumbling away his chance at an NFL role if you are looking for selections in your fantasy keeper league. This information, I conjecture, is more interesting and useful to you than "Anderson's hips and thighs aren't always moving in sequence during his rip-swipe-tug-floop technique" or "Carter's left foot swings too far wide when lined up in the 5i technique."

Granted, I dabble in a little molecular scouting myself—I hate watching offensive linemen bend at the waist instead of the knees, and I just love watching linebackers stack and shed—but I get the impression that what you really want isn't a jargon-slinging demonstration, but a sense of what the guy your local sportstalk host is obsessed with can really do for your team if he is drafted.

You also want a picture of the prospect, perhaps more so than some ultra-granular evaluation, or at least I hope that's what you want.

For example: SMU wide receiver Rashee Rice drew 12 pass interference penalties, the highest figure in the nation in 2022 and the highest figure in the SIS database since 2016. He also dropped eight passes.

Now, here is one Rice highlight, with some thoughts from Dane Brugler of The Athletic:

Each Saturday, I’m reminded why #SMU WR Rashee Rice was my highest-ranked senior WR prospect entering the season.

3 games in 2022: 28 rec, 491 yds, 3 TDs, 75% 1st down rate

Ball. Winner. pic.twitter.com/Gzw9iTP0d4

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) September 22, 2022

Do you have a clear picture of Rice? Mid-major bomb guy, draws all sorts of DPI from overmatched cornerbacks on deep balls, inconsistent hands? That's him. Football Outsiders will be happy to flesh things out with a few more detailed thoughts in the FO 100, Playmaker Score, maybe a quote or two from Rice's combine interview. But that's probably sufficient for your water-cooler or Discord debates, right?

Rice's actual ranking in the FO 100 is, of course, to be determined. I don't care what Anderson or Carter do at the combine, but as a mid-major hero Rice needs to verify his film/stats with his workout results. There are about 20 spots open on the list right now for a whole bunch of prospects with partially written profiles waiting for some gonzo 40 time or three-cone result, or at least numbers that confirm (or, perhaps, contradict) what the film shows.

Let's proceed with a semi-traditional combine preview:

Quarterbacks: Levis Island

You will have to pay to read my thoughts on Kentucky quarterback Will Levis. My opinion of Levis is so incendiary, runs so far against conventional wisdom and is so (I am certain) 100% accurate that it's practically worth the price of an FO+ subscription all by itself.

Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud are just fine. I have thoughts on them, but so does everyone else, and we'll talk enough about them over the next few months that it's not worth going into detail now. Florida's Anthony Richardson and Tennessee's Hendon Hooker are two other prospects for whom I have strong opinions, deep thoughts, and stats to share as part of the FO 100. Hooker is an underrated prospect, though his age and November ACL injury remain bright yellow flags.

There's not going to be much quarterback sizzle at the combine. I don't plan to attend the throwing session this year. There's tons of tape on Young, Stroud, and Levis; Hooker won't throw; and all the Max Duggan types in this year's C-tier are bean dip. The Derek Carr-Daniel Jones-Geno Smith-Jimmy Garoppolo hot stove gossip at Prime Steakhouse will be exponentially more interesting than anything going on within the Indiana Convention Center

Running Backs: Bijan Robinson and Beyond

Bijan Robinson is currently seventh on the provisional FO 100; you'll get to see the top 10 for free when it comes out, so I am not sharing any secrets here. He could be fifth or 10th by the time everyone runs and jumps in Indy.

A seventh-place ranking does NOT mean Football Outsiders thinks a running back should be drafted seventh overall. Robinson has Pro Bowl potential and looks like a surefire 1,000-yard rusher early in his career. In a platonic sense, that makes him a better prospect than some edge rusher with less-than-Anderson numbers and traits.

This year's running back class is Mariana Trench-deep with talent. As such, I need weights, 40 times, shuttle times, and other data on rushers such as Zach Evans of Ole Miss or Chase Brown of Illinois to determine if they deserve to make the cut. Last year, our BackCAST and Speed Score metrics isolated Isiah Pacheco and Tyler Allgeier as running backs to watch, based in part on their combine workouts, so it's extremely worthwhile to use workout metrics as a reason to review scouting reports and tape.

I have my eye on Northwestern's Evan Hull, who impressed me at the Senior Bowl both as a practice player and a one-on-one interview, and would not hate an excuse to slip him onto the FO 100 if he shines. (He's a lock for the fantasy list.)

Wide Receivers: Size Matters

The 2023 draft wide receiver class is full of dudes with outstanding production who weigh 175 pounds.

Jordan Addison caught about a billion passes at Pitt and USC (219, actually), and there's three years of tape of him hoovering up lots of throws from Kenny Pickett and Caleb Williams. But he's rather small.

At least Addison ran a semi-conventional route tree for much of his career. Tennessee's Jalin Hyatt and North Carolina's Josh Downs are also 175-pounders (give or take), but they lived in the world of stack formations, screens, and wheel routes. And Boston College's Zay Flowers appears to have escaped from the trailer of the upcoming Super Mario Bros. movie.

Right now, Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks first among wide receivers on the FO 100. That may be a controversial choice, but Smith-Njigba siphoned tons of targets away from Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in 2021 and looked like Keenan Allen that year before missing much of 2022 with an injury. When in doubt, pick the guy who caught more passes as an underclassman than the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and one of the top runner-ups did for the same team in their final seasons.

That said, any of the wee fellows, or TCU's larger but more one-dimensional Quentin Johnston, or perhaps someone else could slip past Smith-Njigba by running a blazing 40, perhaps at a rocked-up 190 pounds or so.

Lots of receivers are on my combine "watch" list right now, starting with LSU's Kayshon Boutte, who has battled an ankle injury and perhaps some Brian Kelly doghouse-keeping over the last two years. Boutte is high on LOTS of draft lists right now, but I just don't see it. I would have no trouble seeing a 4.35-second forty, however, and going with the consensus flow as a result.

Speaking of the consensus…

Tight End: Darnell Washington is Thanos

See, here's the thing with evaluating tight ends: there are 32 jobs for guys like Travis Kelce, Kyle Pitts, or even Dallas Goedert or Noah Fant. Jobs 33 to 96 at tight end go to players who can block in-line in 12 personnel groups, help out in short yardage, play special teams, and do all the other things backup tight ends are expected to do. But each draft class produces about a dozen players who aspire to be Kelce or Goedart: tall, well-built slot receivers who can block an itsy-bitsy bit and get open over the middle after going in motion before the snap. One or two pan out; the rest end up bouncing between TE3 roles and the inactive list.

That's a long way of explaining that Oregon State's Luke Musgrave, who is near the top of many draft boards, is not all that close to the top of the FO 100. Musgrave is a tall drink of water who runs well and put some exciting catches on tape, but he has 47 career receptions, due in part to an injury that erased most of last year. I just haven't seen enough of Musgrave as a receiver to be all that thrilled by his traits, but I have seen enough of his blocking to know that he ain't Gronk.

Georgia's Darnell Washington is a different case. Yes, Washington caught just 45 passes in his college career. Yes, he blocks the way André the Giant wrestled late in his career: all size and strength, minimal technique. But if Washington measures 6-foot-11 and weighs 390 sculpted pounds in Indy, I wouldn't be shocked. Washington isn't really quite that big, but he is an athletically different human. Sometimes, it makes sense to ignore the numbers, downplay the little technical flaws, and just succumb to the shock and awe.

Cornerbacks: Witherspoon, Man, Steal the Rhythm While You Can

Illinois cornerback Devon Witherspoon allowed just 3.3 yards per target in 2022, the lowest figure of any defender with over 20 snaps in coverage. Witherspoon's quarterback rating allowed of 3.6 was also the lowest figure in the nation.

Witherspoon would be our top-ranked cornerback except, holy schmow, this class is stacked at the position. Just as every receiver weighs 175 pounds, every cornerback is 6-foot-2 with Go-Go-Gadget arms, Marvel-movie muscles, and two high school track-and-field records. It's a wonder anyone scored at all on Saturdays last autumn.

The B-tier of 2023 cornerback prospects features players who look like potential starters such as Oregon State's Rejzohn Wright, Kansas State's Julian Brents, and Stanford's Kyu Blu Kelly. Measurements and workouts results will be critical to sorting these defenders out: a half-inch or half-step either way could send a cornerback sailing up or down draft boards when there are a half-dozen alternatives in the pool.

Safeties: The Skinner Box

It's hard to evaluate power-program safeties such as Alabama's Jordan Battle or Georgia's Christopher Smith II. Watch their defenses play 70 snaps and you might not see them do anything besides shuffle around in zone coverage or prepare to tackle a running back who will never reach them about eight or nine times. At least Will Anderson and Jalen Carter engage a blocker on every snap. Other folks clearly can glean more from watching Battle or Smith watch Anderson, Carter, and others make plays in front of them than I can. Or else we're all skating along on the supposition (usually accurate) that if a safety is starting for Alabama or Georgia then he just MUST be a top prospect.

Alabama's Brian Branch spent more time in the box and the slot than Battle, making his talents easier to recognize. NFL.com lists Branch at cornerback, which may be a sign that league folks project the 6-foot-0, 193-pounder there. He's certainly a tweener. The FO 100 will probably diplomatically call Branch a "defensive back," and he will be evaluated as a slot defender.

Mid-major safeties are often also a pain to evaluate: they line up everywhere from edge rusher to cornerback and make all sorts of plays, and it's tempting to declare them all Honey Badgers when often they're just tall, straight-line runners who will get stuck in the third-and-20 package and on the field goal block team. That said, I really like Boise State's JL Skinner, a run-and-hit guy who always seems to be around the ball. Skinner was also a pad-popping menace during Senior Bowl practices. He can really help himself with some dazzling workout numbers.

Linebackers: Trenton Simpson Makes, Drew Sanders Takes

The Dallas Cowboys will select Arkansas linebacker Drew Sanders in the first round. Every mock draft on earth might as well come around to this reality now.

Sanders reminds me of a cross between Luke Kuechly and Nick Bolton. He is going to rank very high on the FO 100. And if I am over the moon for him, imagine what Arkansas Razorbacks megafan Jerry Jones thinks of Sanders. Jones may already have adopted him. Anyway, Sanders has lukewarm pre-combine buzz because no one cares much about off-ball linebackers. Let's see how he runs.

Sanders is unlikely to outrun Clemson linebacker Trenton Simpson, however. You know how Fred Warner allows the 49ers to use personnel packages and coverages few other teams dare to use because he can run up the seam with wide receivers? Simpson can provide the same sort of impact.

Edge Rushers: Hercules to Hall to Herbig

There's a deep group of B-tier edge rushers in the 2023 class who bring one or two elite traits to the table.

Lukas "Hercules" Van Ness of Iowa is huge and devastating when he is within two steps of the quarterback, though he doesn't have agility of a traditional edge. Auburn's Derick Hall has tremendous lower-body strength and picks up second-effort sacks, but he's not all that quick and creative with his first moves. USC's Tuli Tuipulotu is built like a nose tackle and effectively shoulder-fakes blockers out of position, but he's doesn't have much speed or burst to the edge. LSU's B.J. Ojulari DOES have first-step quickness and the ability to torque around the left tackle, but he doesn't have much else. Nate Herbig of Wisconsin can also bend around and beneath blockers on the edge, but he only weighs 228 pounds, dropped into coverage a lot, and projects as more of a linebacker than an edge. Iowa State's Will McDonald IV, by contrast, played traditional defensive end in a 3-2-6 defense, so the 241-pounder's best moves were often neutralized because he was head-up on a 300-pound tackle.

Needless to say, accurate heights and weights, plus sprints, cone-drill, and jumping results will help sort this group out. Workout results will also make it easier to determine whether top-20 prospects such as Texas Tech's Tyree Wilson and Clemson's Myles Murphy are athletic enough to overlook the flaws in their games.

Defensive Tackles: Mazi Stars

Michigan's 326-pound Mazi Smith recorded just half a sack in two seasons as a Wolverines regular. Smith's pressure production is very good, however, and Smith is one of several Hog Mollies adding depth behind Jalen Carter to a deep defensive tackle class.

Baylor's Siaki Ika and Texas' Keondre Coburn are two other very, very large men who can move. They'll be fun to watch when running the 40, should they do it. They'll also post gonzo bench press numbers. But the combine isn't really a showcase for big uglies.

Clemson's Bryan Bresee dealt with a variety of major injuries (including an ACL tear) in his college career, plus some family tragedy. Bresee's medicals will be important: he's a possible top-10 pick with a clean bill of health. Unfortunately we should brace for the anonymous "some teams took him off the board because his knee is allegedly shredded" reports, leaked by the team picking 11th.

Offensive Line: The Usual Suspects

This year's offensive line class feels a little auto-generated. There's a Georgia tackle (Broderick Jones), an Ohio State tackle (Paris Johnson), a small-school fan favorite (North Dakota State's Cody Mauch), and so many sturdy, leader-ish Big 10 centers that I don't feel like listing them all. Northwestern's Peter Skoronski is this year's designated left tackle who needs to move to guard for #reasons. There's no Andrew Thomas, Tristan Wirfs, or Ikem Ekwonu to stand out from the pack, though Johnson speaks Mandarin and Portuguese which is kind of cool. If the NFL doesn't work out, Johnson could crush it as a 15th-century spice trader.

There are more interesting prospects lower on the draft board. Ohio State's Dawand Jones is so huge that he's real estate, and he looked good during Senior Bowl week. Tennessee's Darnell Wright is a technically sound tough guy who excelled at both right and left tackle for the Vols. BYU's Blake Freeland is 6-foot-8 and has the wingspan of a condor: leverage can be an issue for taller tackles, but Freeland finds ways to get the job done.

The combine isn't really designed for offensive linemen to shine. The NFL even moved their media interviews from Wednesday to Saturday, after I depart, so I won't be able to ask Johnson to speak Mandarin. (We now get edge rusher and defensive back interviews and workouts first, which makes sense from a fan-interest standpoint until you realize that running backs are also on the last day.) Fortunately, the FO 100 will have plenty of film observations and blown block metrics to draw from, so we won't have to worry much about some center's 40 time.

Off to Indy We Go

That concludes this lengthy commercial for upcoming content cleverly designed as a feature. It's time for ol' Walkthrough to pack our bags for Indy. There will be a Four Downs coming in a day or two for those eager to read my NFC North thoughts. And check back early in the week for news 'n' notes from the interview room and (if I am reading these NFL memos correctly) from Lucas Oil Stadium itself this year!