Win the Wire

The best players to add to your fantasy rosters (based on Football Outsiders' advanced metrics).

Win the Wire: Week 3

Mark Andrews
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

by Scott Spratt

Lamar Jackson answered any lingering questions about his ability to be a top fantasy quarterback with an impressive encore showing at home against the Cardinals in Week 2. It's too late for you to grab Jackson in your fantasy leagues if you missed him last week, but there are still a couple of Ravens you can potentially pick up to help your shallow-league teams.

Each listed player includes my recommendation for how much of your Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB) you should bid to try to win them as well as whether I think you should use a No. 1 waiver priority in a format where you would then fall to the back of the line.

Ownership percentages are for ESPN/Yahoo/NFL.com.

Shallow Leagues

Players to Target

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
71%/89%/92%

Mark Andrews followed up his eight-catch, 108-yard, one-touchdown performance in Week 1 with another eight catches, 112 yards, and a touchdown in Week 2. Through two weeks, he has 30.9% of the Ravens' wide receiver and tight end targets, the third-highest rate at the position. His 74 DYAR leads all tight ends. He's a top-five fantasy option at the position and is still on about a quarter of waiver wires in ESPN leagues.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 55%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
74%/82%/82%

Marquise Brown owed a lot of his Week 1 breakout fantasy performance to a pair of long touchdowns, but then he followed that up with 13 targets in Week 2. You can't fake a team-leading 32.7% wide receiver and tight end target share. Besides Brown and Andrews, no other Ravens wideout or tight end is over 11%. Sunday's game showed that the Ravens will likely run the ball more than most teams, but that won't prevent Brown from being a WR2 with his target share and explosive athleticism.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 52%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills
82%/82%/76%

The rushing touchdown was a nice bonus for anyone who started him, but Devin Singletary saw his playing time flip from Week 1 when he paced the backfield in snaps. He took just 25 snaps in Week 2 compared to 45 for Frank Gore. That said, Singletary is fighting a hamstring injury that could have been a factor there. Meanwhile, he is third at the position with 59 rushing DYAR and has been way more efficient (119.9% rushing DVOA) than Gore (-23.7%). Singletary is this year's Nick Chubb. I'm not sure if it will be Week 3 or Week 7, but he'll dominate the Bills' backfield touches before too long.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 35%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Carlos Hyde, RB, Houston Texans
45%/43%/40%

After a pretty even carry split in Week 1, Carlos Hyde carried the ball 20 times in Week 2 against the Jaguars. He now owns a 2-to-1 carry split with teammate Duke Johnson on the season. He has just one target through two games and may not see a bump there given his historical receiving inefficiency, but he could be Derrick Henry. His 28.8% DVOA suggests that the soon-to-be 29-year-old still has a bit more left in his tank.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 30%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Darren Waller, TE, Oakland Raiders
78%/83%/67%

Darren Waller had a lower raw total of targets than Andrews in Week 2, but his seven were still second most on the team behind slot receiver Hunter Renfrow. For the season, Waller has 26.3% of the Raiders' wide receiver and tight end targets, eighth most at the position. He is a special athlete, and it shows in his 31 DYAR and 25.4% DVOA.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 12%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Tyrell Williams, WR, Oakland Raiders
89%/82%/61%

Tyrell Williams ceded some Week 2 work to rookie slot receiver Hunter Renfrow, and he's down to just a 26.4% wide receiver and tight end target share. That's a little low for a team's No. 1 wide receiver, but Williams has a stranglehold on that role for the Raiders. He's been incredibly efficient with a 45.5% DVOA this season and owns all three of the team's end zone targets. He should be a solid WR2 in the better matchups.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 11%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Emmanuel Sanders, WR, Denver Broncos
88%/77%/91%

Emmanuel Sanders boasts the same total of three end zone targets as AFC West rival Tyrell Williams and came down with a spectacular touchdown against Chicago that would have been a game-winner had the Bears not answered with a last-second field goal. That play shows the skill set that allows Sanders to continue to thrive at 32 years old coming off a late-season Achilles tear. His 33.3% wide receiver and tight end target share is better than Williams' and his 66 DYAR aren't far behind. I rank him behind Williams because of his age and the relative strength of the Broncos' other skill options, but it may be a coin flip.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 11%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
90%/91%/84%

Mike Williams has been a very distant No. 2 among the Chargers wideouts this season, drawing just 16.3% of the wide receiver and tight end target share compared to 51.0% for Keenan Allen. But despite catching just five balls, Williams has put together an incredible highlight reel that showcases all of the skills you would want from a featured receiver. He has possibly been slowed down by a knee injury, but I expect his total of four targets per game to double once he's fully healthy.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 9%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Green Bay Packers
58%/60%/52%

Marquez Valdes-Scantling caught just three balls for 19 yards on Sunday, and left-for-dead teammate Geronimo Allison pulled down a receiving touchdown. The basic totals may not suggest it, but Valdes-Scantling is still clearly the Packers' No. 2 receiver option. He played 65 offensive snaps in Week 2, nearly double Allison's total of 34. Matchups with the Bears and Vikings have hurt every Packers skill player, but things should turn around for the team in fantasy as their schedule improves.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 8%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills
57%/72%/31%

John Brown faces a lot of obstacles to his fantasy success. He plays in a cold-weather city in Buffalo with an inaccurate deep-ball passer with his own deep-target tendencies that typically lead to inconsistent weekly performances. But none of those vagaries will stop Brown from producing if he maintains his 34.0% wide receiver and tight end target share, top-15 in football. Meanwhile, Brown has been exceptional with 70 DYAR and 37.1% DVOA over his 18 targets. He is the unquestioned No. 1 receiver for the Bills and looks capable of handling the attention that will bring him.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 8%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

John Ross, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
73%/70%/53%

John Ross' two-week totals of 11 catches, 270 yards, and three touchdowns are better even than Marquise Brown's. I think it's fair to get excited that Ross has turned the corner in his third NFL season. That said, star Bengals' receiver A.J. Green is out of his walking boot, and Ross faces an uncertain workload whenever Green is able to return. At least for the time being, Ross should remain a strong flex option, seeing 26.0% of the team's wide receiver and tight end targets, just 1.3% less than Tyler Boyd and more than 10% clear of the rest of the team.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 8%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Ito Smith, RB, Atlanta Falcons
9%/19%/16%

Ito Smith has played a clear second fiddle to Devonta Freeman so far this season with a 19-to-10 carry split and 8-to-4 target split. However, on his limited work, he has shown the agility and quickness you would want to see from a receiving back. Meanwhile, Freeman has been dreadful this season, trailing the position with -44 DYAR and -65.9% DVOA. The Falcons have faced two stingy defenses in the Vikings and Eagles, but Freeman is also 10 touches away from 1,000 career in the regular season. With a recent injury history, he may be an old 27-year-old, and that could mean added work for Smith. Either way, I expect Smith to catch more balls than he has so far this year and be usable as a flex.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Royce Freeman, RB, Denver Broncos
74%/75%/61%

After two weeks, Royce Freeman is on the wrong end of a 24-to-21 carry split with teammate Phillip Lindsay. That continues the pattern I expected and saw in Week 1. However, after catching four balls for 30 yards on a shocking seven targets, Freeman also trails Lindsay in targets, 13-8. If Freeman is going to be involved in the Broncos passing game, he suddenly vaults into flex consideration because his near-50-pound weight advantage over Lindsay makes him the logical choice for the team's goal-line work.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Delanie Walker, TE, Tennessee Titans
90%/92%/92%

Delanie Walker led the Titans in targets in Week 2 and has a 30.8% wide receiver and tight end target share for the season, a fraction behind Andrews' third-place rate. He isn't as valuable as either Andrew or Waller given his age (35) and recent injury history. But enjoy the touchdowns for as long as he plays this season.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers
59%/61%/49%

Olsen overcame his own back injury to play on Thursday night on the short week, and he was one of the Panthers' few bright spots, catching six balls for 110 yards on nine targets. He's up to 18 targets through two weeks, which is a 26.5% wide receiver and tight end target share. Injury concerns aside, he's back to where he was before his foot injuries in 2016 and 2017.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington Redskins
67%/68%/66%

With Derrius Guice out for a few months with a knee injury, Adrian Peterson took 10 of the Redskins' 15 running back carries and scored a touchdown on Sunday. He wasn't efficient and is fairly matchup-dependent, but he can be a flex option even in shallow formats while he maintains this workload. That will probably be until some time in November, although keep an eye on rookie Bryce Love's health. Love may miss the full season recovering from his late-career ACL tear at Stanford, but he's on the PUP list and would be eligible to return in Week 7 if the Redskins deemed him healthy.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Chris Thompson, RB, Washington Redskins
52%/48%/32%

In a PPR format, I probably prefer Chris Thompson to his teammate Peterson even while Guice and Love are out. That's because Thompson already has a gaudy total of 18 targets this season. In his 62-target 2016 season, Thompson finished the year as the No. 30 PPR back. He has that ceiling again this year with the Redskins' offense looking surprisingly functional under Case Keenum.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 4%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Jamison Crowder, WR, New York Jets
77%/64%/48%

Jamison Crowder had just modest production with four catches and 40 yards on six targets in Week 2, but thanks to a ridiculous Week 1 target volume, he remains third among wide receivers with a 46.9% share of his team's wide receiver and tight end targets. The top 12 of that stat tells you why you have to take Crowder seriously -- Michael Thomas (52.0%), Keenan Allen (51.0%), Crowder (46.9%), Allen Robinson (44.4%), DeAndre Hopkins (41.2%), Sammy Watkins (39.3%), Odell Beckham (38.9%), Adam Thielen (35.5%), D.J. Moore (35.3%), Tyler Lockett (35.0%), T.Y. Hilton (34.9%), and Davante Adams (34.7%). But the Jets' entire passing attack could be in a dicey spot with third-stringer Luke Falk as their starting quarterback.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 4%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Christian Kirk, WR, Arizona Cardinals
79%/81%/81%

With Michael Crabtree joining an already crowded position group, Christian Kirk faced some concerns for a loss of playing time. He dispelled those quickly on Sunday, playing 56 offensive snaps. Meanwhile, Crabtree (19 snaps) and KeeSean Johnson (19) finished well back of deep threat Damiere Byrd (56) in playing time. You probably don't want any of that trio, but Kirk should be playable with a 25.6% wide receiver and tight end target share in an offense that looks like it could lead football in pass attempts.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

D.K. Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks
66%/49%/50%

Metcalf put up modest totals of three catches and 61 yards despite Russell Wilson's big day and win in Pittsburgh, but Metcalf still finished second on the team with seven targets. His 32.5% wide receiver and tight end target share on the year is nearly double that of the Seahawks' third receiver. He's entrenched as Wilson's No. 2 option, but he'll need to maintain a target share in the 30% range given how skewed the Seahawks are to the run. I see him as more of a flex option in bye weeks in shallow formats.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
77%/58%/49%

Courtland Sutton looks like a safe No. 2 receiver on the Broncos. His 25.0% wide receiver and tight end target share is 8% clear of the team's third and later options. He has also looked very capable with 55 DYAR and 32.3% DVOA on the short season. He should also be a flex consideration in the Broncos' best matchups.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Curtis Samuel, WR, Carolina Panthers
73%/77%/72%

Curtis Samuel rebounded from his light Week 1 usage with 13 targets and a carry on Thursday night. That elevates him to a palatable 23.5% wide receiver and tight end target share. But I maintain that he's a clear No. 2 behind D.J. Moore, and Samuel is hurt by Cam Newton's possibly-shoulder-injury-related poor accuracy. Newton has completed 9.3% fewer passes than expected according to Next Gen Stats, worst at the position.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
83%/88%/83%

Like in his Week 1 game against the Lions, Murray helped the Cardinals hang around in Week 2, a more impressive feat on the road in Baltimore. His final line of 349 yards and no interceptions is pretty impressive, and he has been just below replacement with -17 DYAR and -13.7% DVOA as a passer despite the difficult early-season schedule. His fantasy potential is tied to his volume -- he leads the position with 94 pass attempts. While boosted by an overtime game, that is still high considering he has faced two teams that normally cut pass plays per game. But so far, Murray has just six carries for 17 yards. He will need to run more to have fantasy value in shallow formats.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players to Avoid

Demarcus Robinson, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
1%/9%/1%

"Avoid" is probably an over-strong word to use for Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman, the two Chiefs receivers who caught a combined 10 balls for 233 yards and three touchdowns against the Raiders on Sunday. I just wouldn't blow a significant chunk of my FAAB on either player. Last season, the Chiefs saw just 10 receiver-games with six or more targets outside of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill -- Sammy Watkins had five, Chris Conley had three, Robinson had one, and Demetrius Harris had one. With Watkins currently filling the role of Hill, I expect Robinson and Hardman to occasionally turn in big performances, but they'll turn in some two-catch days as well. Reserve them for DFS tournaments and deeper seasonal formats.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 8%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Mecole Hardman, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
38%/40%/13%

I would offer the same advice for Mecole Hardman that I did for Demarcus Robinson. The only caveat is that the rookie Hardman is an incredibly valuable player in dynasty and keeper formats.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 7%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
68%/60%/64%

Rashaad Penny enjoyed the big fantasy day for the Seahawks thanks to a rushing touchdown, and with 10 carries on Sunday, he has cut teammate Chris Carson's carry ratio to 2-to-1. That's an improvement compared to Carson's 3-to-1 edge last year, but I don't think it will be enough to make him startable in shallow formats. Penny remains uninvolved in the team's passing game, seeing just one target to Carson's 10. Penny will need to score to have fantasy value. Avoid him in shallow formats unless you want to handcuff Carson. He's one of the most valuable handcuffs at the position.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 4%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

LeSean McCoy, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
87%/87%/93%

It sounds like both of the Chiefs' primary running options, Damien Williams and LeSean McCoy, avoided serious injuries on Sunday. That will sadly continue to hold back my fantasy sleeper Darwin Thompson, but it shouldn't offer you too much confidence in McCoy's fantasy value. He has a solid total of 22 carries this season, but only nine of those have come with the Chiefs still in a two-score game. Meanwhile, McCoy has been out-targeted 11-to-4 by Williams. McCoy is simply a handcuff.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players You Can Drop

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints
Dion Lewis, RB, Tennessee Titans
Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans
Dante Pettis, WR, San Francisco 49ers
Jordan Howard, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Derrius Guice, RB, Washington Redskins
Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Mike Davis, RB, Chicago Bears
Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots
Geronimo Allison, WR, Green Bay Packers
Robert Foster, WR, Buffalo Bills
DaeSean Hamilton, WR, Denver Broncos

Deep Leagues

Players to Target

Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco 49ers
11%/17%/1%

I overlooked Raheem Mostert in my Week 2 recommendations for deep-league players, but hopefully Jeff Wilson's mirage of a fantasy performance will offer you another chance to pick him up. Mostert was very efficient, taking just 13 carries and three targets for 83 and 68 respective yards. It's a limited workload, but right now, he has a 26.4% rushing and 118.4% receiving DVOA. His receiving touchdown showcased the speed that I think can help him maintain fantasy relevance as long as Tevin Coleman is out. To me, his team-leading five targets make it clear that he has that role for the time being.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 60%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Redskins
41%/52%/17%

Without Jordan Reed, the Redskins are lacking enough in skill-position talent that it makes sense that a Day 2 rookie could lead them in targets. That said, I think McLaurin could be very good. He has shown excellent efficiency through two weeks with 29.6% receiving DVOA. I expect him to maintain his 10% target share advantage over fellow outside receiver Paul Richardson.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 35%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
30%/41%/27%

Josh Allen overcame a sneakily-difficult fantasy matchup for quarterbacks on the road against the Giants thanks to a rushing touchdown. He now has 10 rushing touchdowns in 13 career starts. His weekly averages of 51 rushing yards and 0.77 rushing touchdowns provides him with 6.5 fantasy points, which is the same from a scoring perspective as if he added 170 passing yards to his weekly totals. His skill set makes him a better option in fantasy than in reality.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 15%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Nelson Agholor, Philadelphia Eagles
4%/15%/3%

All three of DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery, and Dallas Goedert left the Eagles' Sunday night game with injuries. It's still unclear whether or how long any of those players will miss time, but chances are good that Agholor will pick up a heavy workload for at least a few weeks. With that trio missing, Agholor became Carson Wentz's clear top choice among his receivers, catching eight balls for 107 yards and a score.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 14%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Randall Cobb, WR, Dallas Cowboys
18%/24%/18%

Michael Gallup followed up his breakout Week 1 performance with another six catches for 68 yards on a team-leading eight targets. He was poised to be a shallow-league fantasy darling, but that will now have to wait for arthroscopic knee surgery that will likely knock him out for two to four weeks. Randall Cobb is not a skill set replacement for Gallup and should continue to operate from the slot. But even if Cobb sees a modest bump in his 19.6% wide receiver and tight end target share, he could become a PPR option in deeper formats. Quarterback Dak Prescott leads the position with 395 DYAR and 83.0% DVOA, and he has completed 13.2% more passes than expected according to Next Gen Stats. Kellen Moore's offense has unleashed the Cowboys' passing attack, and that should sustain multiple fantasy options.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 12%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
10%/19%/8%

Nine years into his pro career, Andy Dalton is probably not going to suddenly become an exceptional quarterback. Despite some impressive passing totals, his 7 DYAR and -10.4% DVOA show him to be pretty neutral. But new head coach Zac Taylor can reinvigorate Dalton's fantasy potential if he continues to skew to a heavy passing workload. Dalton has thrown 93 passes so far this season, second-most in football. Meanwhile, his Week 1 and 2 opponents, the Seahawks and 49ers, have otherwise been passing volume matchups, increasing pass plays by 1.1% and decreasing pass plays by 2.6%, respectively.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Will Dissly, TE, Seattle Seahawks
2%/4%/1%

Will Dissly was the silver medalist in standard fantasy at the position on the strength of his pair of touchdowns. That may not be sustainable in a literal sense, but Dissly now boasts totals of 13 catches, 213 yards, and four touchdowns on 20 targets in his five career healthy games. He looks very efficient so far in 2019 with 89.8% DVOA. He will likely live and die by his touchdown totals, but that's true of every tight end outside of the top 10. He's a definite option in deeper formats.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Preston Williams, WR, Miami Dolphins
3%/2%/1%

It may not take much to be the most impressive -- or least unimpressive? -- player on the Dolphins, but after another decent performance of four catches and 63 yards, rookie wideout Preston Williams has become just that. His 20.4% share of the team's wide receiver and tight end targets would not make him a shallow-league option, but he may already be a WR4 in deeper formats. Meanwhile, he saw the field for 42 snaps against the Patriots on Sunday, second-most of the team's receivers behind DeVante Parker. His early integration is likely related to the Dolphins' lack of roster talent, but I still think Williams has a bright future.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Hunter Renfrow, WR, Oakland Raiders
6%/6%/2%

After seeing a team-leading eight targets on Sunday, Hunter Renfrow is up to a 19.3% share of the Raiders' wide receiver and tight end targets. There really aren't other options behind Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller. I would never assume a rookie slot receiver is as talented as Cooper Kupp, but Renfrow enjoys a similar path to immediate fantasy production.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

DJ Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
22%/13%/5%

I could not be any less certain of how to handicap the Jaguars' wide receiving options. All three of DJ Chark, Chris Conley, and Dede Westbrook logged between 55 and 58 snaps in Gardner Minshew's first career start on Sunday, and Chark and Conley were once again the better fantasy choices than the presumed No. 1 Westbrook. For now, I'll yield and say that both Chark and Conley are stash options in deeper formats, primarily because Westbrook has been bad with -33 DYAR and -51.2% DVOA this season. But all three receivers have between a 20% and a 25% share of the team's wide receiver and tight end targets. That isn't the recipe for sustained fantasy success for any of them.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Chris Conley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
20%/4%/1%

I have Chris Conley a little bit lower than teammate Chark, given his small deficit in both players' targets share. But Conley had been terrific, fifth at the position with 75 DYAR. Be careful with both players on Thursday night. They were both listed as questionable on the team's Monday injury report.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Case Keenum, QB, Washington Redskins
5%/10%/4%

Case Keenum has impressed through two starts with his new team, maintaining a 35.2% DVOA that is sixth-best at the position and throwing three touchdowns that his fantasy owners love. He's probably similarly valuable to Andy Dalton while he plays, but unlike Dalton, he faces the specter of rookie Dwayne Haskins looking over his shoulder. The Redskins are already 0-2 despite Keenum's surprising play. Haskins seems likely to be starting after the team's Week 10 bye, if not sooner.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Mason Rudolph, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
0%/2%/0%

Ben Roethlisberger tore his UCL on Sunday and will now miss the rest of the season. That offers second-year pro Mason Rudolph an extended chance to start. On its own, that may make him worthy of a pickup in some very deep formats. But I think he may end up being decently productive as a fantasy option. Football Outsiders' quarterback prospect projection system QBASE was bullish on Rudolph thanks to his 10.7 adjusted yards per attempt in college.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
13%/9%/10%

Tyler Eifert continued his comeback with three catches including a touchdown in Week 2. After seeing the same five targets as tight end teammate C.J. Uzomah in Week 1, Eifert out-targeted him 5-to-0 on Sunday. Eifert still played a modest total of 19 offensive snaps, but look for that to increase as the season progresses.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Mack Hollins, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
0%/0%/0%

If both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery miss extended time, then Mack Hollins is the second Eagles receiver after Nelson Agholor to own. He saw double rookie J.J. Arcega-Whiteside's total of four targets on Sunday.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Teddy Bridgewater, QB, New Orleans Saints
0%/1%/0%

Teddy Bridgewater didn't excel with -26 DYAR and -27.4% DVOA in relief of Drew Brees on Sunday, but that would be a big ask for any quarterback coming in cold off of the bench. I expect him to perform better over the next six or so weeks while Brees recovers from his thumb injury. Traditionally, Bridgewatetr has been a very conservative passer, and that should lead to modest fantasy success on a Saints team with a couple of plus skill weapons.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Taysom Hill, QB, New Orleans Saints
1%/1%/0%

If you have bench spots to burn in a very deep league, you can also make the bet against Bridgewater and pick up Taysom Hill. Hill has only thrown seven NFL passes and is a long shot to become the team's fill-in starter. But he has averaged 5.2 yards over 39 career carries and would likely be a fantasy monster if given the opportunity.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players to Avoid

Jeff Wilson, RB, San Francisco 49ers
0%/0%/0%

Jeff Wilson may look like a compelling fantasy option following his 10-carry, two-touchdown performance the week after Tevin Coleman was hurt. But Wilson took only two of his 10 carries with the 49ers still in a two-score ball game. He's the team's No. 3 back behind Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert and will have only situational fantasy value.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Deebo Samuel, WR, San Francisco 49ers
13%/14%/3%

Wilson's teammate Deebo Samuel set the pace for his team's receivers on Sunday, catching five balls for 87 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. Samuel is unquestionably ahead of teammate Dante Pettis, who has just one target on the season. But despite securing 24.4% of the team's wide receiver and tight end target share, Samuel played just 29 offensive snaps in Week 2. None of the team's wide receivers played more than 51%. For the time being, that group is a committee that will likely frustrate fantasy owners.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Eric Ebron, TE, Indianapolis Colts
47%/63%/69%

Eric Ebron was up to his old tricks against those Titans on Sunday, buoying his fantasy scoring with a touchdown on a modest total of four targets. But unlike last season, don't expect that trend to continue. Ebron has seen just 16.3% of the Colts' wide receiver and tight end targets this season. Jack Doyle is back healthy, and the two are sabotaging each other's fantasy potential.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans
10%/23%/4%

Based only on their target volumes, rookie receiver A.J. Brown looks like he may already have caught up to veteran Corey Davis in the Titans' pecking order. Both players caught three of their five targets on Sunday. But the playing time paints a different and likely more predictive picture. Despite his 23.1% wide receiver and tight end target share, Brown played just 27 offensive snaps in Week 2. That was fewer than both Davis (50) and Adam Humphries (34).

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Parris Campbell, WR, Indianapolis Colts
5%/4%/1%

In the team's first game since losing veteran No. 2 receiver Devin Funchess, Colts rookie Parris Campbell found the end zone. He has an exciting future, but don't expect Campbell to help your fantasy squads any time soon. He played just 18 offensive snaps on Sunday, just 25% of the team's total. Deon Cain, Zach Pascal, and Chester Rogers were all in that range behind the clear No. 1 option T.Y. Hilton. As such, none of those secondary receivers has fantasy value for the time being.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Demaryius Thomas, WR, New York Jets
7%/11%/5%

Demaryius Thomas enjoyed a couple of days of improved fantasy potential after the Patriots traded him from their Antonio Brown-created receiver logjam to the receiver-starved Jets. He even made it into his new team's Monday night game against the Browns. Unfortunately, he reinjured his hamstring there. And even if he can return to action in a few weeks, he'll likely be stuck with third-stringer Luke Falk at quarterback. Avoid him in fantasy.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

D'Ernest Johnson, RB, Cleveland Browns
0%/0%/0%

Cleveland Browns running back D'Ernest Johnson may have impressed some fans with his 50 yards on six touches on Monday night, but that spotlight will likely be short-lived. Dontrell Hilliard missed Week 2 with a concussion but will likely return to his passing down duties in Week 3.

Recommended FAAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players You Can Drop

Nick Foles, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ty Johnson, RB, Detroit Lions
Devin Funchess, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Albert Wilson, WR, Miami Dolphins
Andy Isabella, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Comments

5 comments, Last at 18 Sep 2019, 7:20pm

1 "[Royce Freeman's] near-50…

"[Royce Freeman's] near-50-pound weight advantage over Lindsay makes him the logical choice for the team's goal-line work."

You might think this, but Lindsay is actually really good at the goal line, and he seems to be the team's first-choice back in those situations for now.

3 Im in a deep league, and not…

Im in a deep league, and not quite understanding the priority here...

Corey Davis (who I own) is a player to drop in shallow leagues. So im not sure...if that means I should drop him in deep leagues?

Like, im not quite understanding the rankings between the following 3 players

Corey Davis (Drop in shallow leagues.)
Demarcus Robinson (avoid in shallow leagues...which clearly is better than drop in shallow)
Randall Cobb (pick up in deeper leagues)

Robinson is available in deep leagues as well, so it might be easier to gauge his value if we got a recommended bid amount for deeper leagues.

4 Re: FAAB bids

Yeah, I thought this out in the preseason, and I think it's going to be impossible to always avoid those edge cases without pricing bids out for every player in both shallow and deep leagues.  But I'm happy to help with your individual cases like this!  I'd prioritize those players Robinson then Cobb then Davis regardless of league size, but I think Robinson and Cobb are similarly valued, and I'd wager that Robinson is going for a lot more FAAB than Cobb is this week.  In a deep league, I'd suggest a 12-20% bid on Robinson, but I'm guessing the time for that has past.

5 ok cool.  Thanks for the…

In reply to by Scott Spratt

ok cool.  Thanks for the info.  I picked up cobb for $0, so yeah he was the better price.  I suppose I will treat "avoid" shallow players as similar value to players to target for cheapish in deep leagues.