Carter is the Best Fantasy Replacement Option for Henry

New York Jets RB Michael Carter
New York Jets RB Michael Carter
Photo: USA Today Sports Images

NFL Week 9 - I do my best to research and advise on the best waiver wire pick-ups every week, but there are some players that no amount of research can help you replace. If Derrick Henry is out for the rest of the season as early reports suggested, then the Titans have little recourse. Henry leads the league in carries with 82 more than Joe Mixon in second place not even halfway through the season. And even as defenses game-plan to try to stop him, Henry is third at the position with 128 DYAR. Jeremy McNichols, Dontrell Hilliard, and practice squad back Mekhi Sargent are poor substitutes. A 36-year-old Adrian Peterson is a poor substitute. And so would even the best waiver wire candidates in shallow fantasy formats. Your fantasy season may well be sunk. But like the Titans, I hope you can pull together smaller advantages from additions and matchup decisions to keep you in the playoff mix. And I'll try to help with this column.

Roster percentages are for ESPN/Yahoo.

Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets

69%/67%

If Henry had been injured a week earlier, I suspect Carter would have roster rates much closer to 100% than the actual rates that have him still available in about a third of leagues. If he is out there for you, spend whatever it takes to add him to your teams. I wouldn't expect more 400-yard Mike White performances—as I will detail later in the article—but Carter may not need them to offer RB2 value. After starting the season in a three-back committee, Carter has asserted a No. 1 role the last two weeks with 72% and 70% snap shares. It's a pattern we have seen before from rookie backs coming out of a bye week in the second half of seasons. But Carter may be unique is his capacity to contribute as a receiver. He has nine and 14 targets the last two weeks, totals that vault him to 37 targets this season. That's ninth-most at the position and one more than of Alvin Kamara. And in many ways, Carter is like Kamara. He fell in the draft because he played a secondary—and receiver-leaning—role in college next to Broncos rookie Javonte Williams. And even though he's markedly smaller than Kamara at 5-foot-8 and 201 pounds, he could handle more with the Jets than he did at North Carolina.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 100%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Adrian Peterson, RB, Tennessee Titans

0%/3%

In deeper formats, you may not have a better choice to replace Henry than the back that is poised to try to replace him in Tennessee. Adrian Peterson signed with the team on Monday and at least evokes Henry at 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds. But Peterson is also 36 years old, six years removed from his last Pro Bowl season, and three years removed from his last 1,000-yard season. He won't be Henry, but he at least should see heavy volumes and work near the goal line that the 205-pound receiving back McNichols was ill-equipped to handle.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 81%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Taysom Hill, QB, New Orleans Saints

1%/2%

Jameis Winston will likely miss the rest of the season with a knee injury. And while his injury may not sabotage the demonstrably flexible Saints the way Henry's injury could sabotage the Titans, it offers its own major fantasy ramifications. Taysom Hill was inactive in Week 8 because of a concussion and so couldn't substitute for Winston at the time of the injury. But it's expected that Hill will clear protocols in time to play in Week 9. And as successful as Trevor Siemian was in spot duty, Hill went 3-1 as a fill-in starter for an injured Drew Brees in 2020 and pushed Winston for the starting job this preseason. He is the logical internal candidate to start the rest of the season, and if he lands that job, he should have excellent fantasy value. Thanks to a willingness to run, especially near the end zone, Hill averaged 21.2 fantasy points per game in those four starts last season. That would land him 10th at the position this year, just between second-year breakouts Justin Herbert (22.0) and Joe Burrow (20.7).

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 36%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: Yes

Alex Collins, RB, Seattle Seahawks

49%/58%

Collins had a fantasy-unfriendly line of 10 carries, 44 yards, and no touchdowns on Sunday. And he would likely have those empty outputs from time to time with Geno Smith at quarterback. But Russell Wilson is reportedly ahead of schedule and has a chance to play in Week 10 after the team's Week 9 bye. And that transition could key Collins' ascent into consistent RB2 status. He has a 58.1% carry share since Chris Carson went down in Week 5 that is tied for 11th-highest among running backs. Rashaad Penny hasn't tipped that balance the last two weeks since he returned from the PUP list. And Carson could miss the rest of the season with his neck injury.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 11%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers

46%/51%

Aiyuk has not come close to matching his 11.5-target and 95-yard-per-game standard from Weeks 7 to 15 of his rookie season so far this year. His seven targets and 45 yards on Sunday were both season-highs and hardly constitute a fantasy breakout. But whatever the production, head coach Kyle Shanahan saw Aiyuk's performance as a breakout, and that will likely spur playing time. Aiyuk saw a season-high of that too on Sunday with an 88% snap share. That was more than Deebo Samuel saw (82%). And while that hardly foreshadows a change in the team's depth chart with Samuel leading the position with 117 receiving yards per game, it could return Aiyuk to fantasy relevance. There are safer receivers to add this week, especially in PPR formats. But none of them matches Aiyuk's ceiling for the fantasy playoffs.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears

18%/22%

Speaking of fantasy playoff ceilings, Fields has rebuilt his after a Week 3 collapse of 68 yards on 20 pass attempts. No, the sacks haven't subsided. Fields maintains his outlier rate of a 14.1% sack rate—Baker Mayfield is second at the position at just 9.7%. And those sacks are driving Fields' alarming -58.3% passing DVOA. But like top-four fantasy quarterback Jalen Hurts, Fields has the skill set to contribute dramatically more in fantasy than he can in real life in his rookie season. After starting conservatively with three carries in his first three starts, Fields has accelerated to six, eight, and 10 carries his last three games. And over the last two, he has a 27.3% carry share that would have him third-highest at the position over the full season, behind just Lamar Jackson (35.8%) and Hurts (35.1%). With rushing's relative fantasy importance over passing, Fields could turn that sort of carry share into top-10 fantasy finishes even with fewer than 200 yards in the air. In fact, Fields did that in Week 5. He threw for just 175 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, but he added 103 yards and a touchdown rushing and finished fifth at the position in fantasy points.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 5%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Dan Arnold, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars

4%/4%

Arnold has always had the efficiency of a top tight end. His 13.0 yards per catchable target between 2018 and 2020 was fourth-best among tight ends with 50 or more targets, behind just O.J. Howard (13.6), Rob Gronkwoski (13.6), and George Kittle (13.1). But on his fourth team in Jacksonville in as many professional seasons, Arnold is finally seeing a commensurate role in an offense. He had a soft debut with a 32% snap share after an in-season trade from Carolina. But since then, Arnold has played at least 62% of snaps every game and seen an 18.4% target share that is ninth-highest at his position since Week 5. With DJ Chark out for the season and leaving the Jaguars thin behind Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault at wide receiver, Arnold may finally become a TE1 in fantasy.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 4%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins

56%/35%

Parker had an excellent fantasy line of eight catches and 85 yards on Sunday, but I suspect that overinflates his likely rest-of-season fantasy value. The Dolphins trailed through much of the second half in Buffalo, and so Tua Tagovailoa threw 39 passes against just 23 team carries to try to catch up. Jaylen Waddle bested Parker by a target and is the player I expect to lead the Dolphins in targets in the second half of the season. Parker has a 23.1% target share in limited time in 2021. That rate would have him 24th among wide receivers. But when Parker and Tagovailoa have played together in 2020 and 2021, the former receiver has averaged modest totals of 7.4 targets, 53 yards, 0.22 touchdowns, and 10.8 PPR points per game. That latter number would put Parker 48th among regular receivers this season.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

6%/10%

Freiermuth may have authored the catch of Week 8 when he outmuscled tight coverage and tapped his toes in bounds at the back of the end zone on a fourth down.

That wouldn't entice my FAB recommendation on its own. We heard about Freiermuth's talent all preseason, but rookie tight ends seldom contribute consistently as pass-catchers to justify a place in fantasy. But Freiermuth may be different because the Steelers have a need. They don't have a wideout with the skills to naturally replace JuJu Smith-Schuster in the middle of the field. And so through two games without the receiver, Freiermuth has been the big workload beneficiary. He has set back-to-back season highs of 60% and 78% snap shares on either side of a Week 7 bye. And he has seven targets his last two games. His 18.9% target share in that span is ninth-highest at the position, and Freiermuth could match that standard in overall fantasy production.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Cole Beasley, WR, Buffalo Bills

62%/60%

There are a couple of narratives that would neatly explain Beasley's 10-catch, 110-yard outburst on Sunday. First, he deleted his Twitter feed, which I'm sure was heated after he expressed some controversial opinions about COVID and vaccinations in the preseason. Second, Beasley could become the de facto target replacement for tight end Dawson Knox as the latter player misses the next few weeks with a broken hand. Knox's positional replacement Tommy Sweeney had just 17 targets in two-and-a-half professional seasons before his start on Sunday. But I can't help but wonder if Beasley's outburst was effectively random. He played 71% of snaps, but he played 91% and 87% of snaps in Weeks 1 and 6 with Knox mostly healthy. And Beasley followed five previous 100-yard games with the Bills in 2020 with 41 or fewer yards in his next games. The Bills seem to feature Beasley when their game plan calls for it, and I haven't found the pattern. His overall 21.2% target share is 35th among wide receivers and probably matches his positional ranking in PPR formats. But history tells us that production will be volatile from week to week.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Jamison Crowder, WR, New York Jets

19%/19%

Based on his production with the Jets this season, Crowder is a less volatile but lower-ceiling version of Beasley for fantasy. Since he returned from a groin injury in Week 4, Crowder has an 18.4% target share that is a bit below Beasley's rate. But Crowder has seen between six and nine targets every week. That consistency may already offer Crowder modest value in deeper PPR formats. But he moreso makes the waiver wire list this week because he is a real-world trade candidate as the NFL approaches the trade deadline today at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday. As a slot-only wide receiver, Crowder is taking playing time from rookie Elijah Moore. And unless Mike White is about to become the next Tom Brady and rally the Jets from 2-5 to a postseason berth, the team will likely consider trading their veteran on the final year of his three-year contract.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 3%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers

32%/36%

The slot receiver run continues! Cobb had unusual Week 8 value after his teammates Davante Adams and Allen Lazard landed on the COVID list and had just three days to clear it before a Thursday night game in Arizona. I wouldn't count on two touchdowns ever again—Cobb has just two scores and 2.0 expected scores in his other seven games this season. But Cobb had been trending before his teammate absences with snap shares increasing from below 30% in Weeks 1 and 2 to between 30% and 60% in Weeks 3 and 6 and above 60% in Week 7 and now 8. And Adams and Lazard should take back Equanimeous St. Brown's (92%) and Juwann Winfree's (74%) snaps more than Cobb's. The slot receiver may even play more with primary pass-catching tight end Robert Tonyan out for the season with a torn ACL. I don't expect him to match Beasley or Crowder, but Cobb could have value in deeper PPR formats.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Derek Carr, QB, Las Vegas Raiders

57%/61%

Had the Raiders not had their bye in Week 7, then Foster Moreau or Kenyan Drake could have paced the team for FAB recommendations with their normal starters Darren Waller and Josh Jacobs potentially on the sidelines. But since I expect Waller and Jacobs back for Week 9, I'll settle for Derek Carr. Carr has a 13.5% passing DVOA this season that is top-10 at his position, but that isn't a change for him. He had 18.7% and 14.0% rates the last two seasons. What has changed is Carr's aggressiveness in throwing down the field. His 8.8-yard average depth of target is fifth-highest at the position and has catapulted Carr to career bests of 8.5 yards per attempt and 324.1 yards per game. Without the wheels of the new-generation quarterbacks such as Justin Fields, Carr has a ceiling in the back end of the top 10 in fantasy. But that value could be critical if your team is missing Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson or has Tom Brady on bye in Week 9.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 2%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Boston Scott, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

5%/19%

That's a swing and a miss for me with a waiver wire and start recommendation Kenneth Gainwell. The Eagles ran for four touchdowns on Sunday, and even with run-happy quarterback Jalen Hurts missing the end zone, Gainwell managed exactly none of them. As such, I'll make Scott a grudging waiver recommendation this week. But I'm not suggesting a 1% FAB bid because of sour grapes. With 45% versus 31% and 25% snap shares, Scott split time pretty evenly with Gainwell and Jordan Howard (25%) on Sunday. And with 1.0 versus 0.2 and 1.1 expected touchdowns, Scott did not even dominate the team's goal-line touches. Scott's committee role may have worked for fantasy against the lowly Lions' 27th-ranked DVOA defense. But it seems unlikely to move the needle against better competition. Miles Sanders played at least 60% of snaps in all six of his games before his Week 7 injury, but he was just 36th at his position in PPR points per game.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Derrick Gore, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

0%/2%

The Chiefs have not had a fertile offense for running back fantasy production the way one might expect. Clyde Edwards-Helaire averaged 12.0 PPR points per game in September, tied for just 25th-best at the position. And if they continue to split carries with Edwards-Helaire sidelined with a knee sprain, then neither Chiefs substitute will be an RB2. Still, I think Gore deserves roster consideration after he took 11 carries for 48 yards on Monday night. It's hardly a definitive sample—he had played just five snaps the first seven weeks—but Gore looked patient and powerful. If head coach Andy Reid agrees, then Gore could see his workload increase with plus rushing matchups against the Packers and Raiders on the horizon.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Carlos Hyde, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

7%/6%

After starting the season in a time share with James Robinson, Hyde saw his snap share fall from 34% in Weeks 1 and 3 to 25% and 14% in Weeks 5 and 6. He only has handcuff value at this point, but Week 9 could be a week for that after Robinson injured his foot and is expected to be day-to-day. Feel free to add Hyde to protect yourself, but don't overspend. The Jaguars draw the fearsome Bills this weekend. They are sixth in run defense DVOA, they cut run plays by 29% per game, and they cut yards and touchdowns by 5% and 7% per carry.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Logan Thomas, TE, Washington Football Team

50%/53%

Thomas won't play in Week 9 since Washington is on their bye. But he had an initial estimate of a four- to six-week absence for the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 4. Chances are, that will put him back on the field after the bye in Week 10. If you have the roster room with the other byes this week, consider adding Thomas. He finished seventh among tight ends with a 19.2% target share in 2020. And in Weeks 1 to 3 this year before the injury, he was close to that standard at 15.7%.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

AJ Dillon, RB, Green Bay Packers

57%/63%

Dillon's 16 Thursday carries may have seemed like a strategy to handle the absences of receivers Davante Adams and Allen Lazard. But Dillon has seen between 11 and 16 touches in four of his last five games. He hasn't added much as a touchdown-producer with just one score and 1.3 expected scores despite his 247-pound frame; Aaron Jones has bested him with two and 4.3 in the same timeframe. But Dillon is an option in deeper formats where every back taking 10 carries per game has value.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Van Jefferson, WR, Los Angeles Rams

8%/12%

Jefferson followed his typical fantasy pattern of needing a touchdown to have standout value. He managed 88 yards in the Texans blowout, but with just three catches, he barely crossed into double digits in PPR points. That trend could continue behind star receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods, but I have become more optimistic for subtle reasons. Jefferson has played 94% and 84% of offensive snaps the last two weeks with tight end Johnny Mundt out for the season. The Rams relied on Mundt as a blocking pair to Tyler Higbee in 12 personnel. And with Mundt healthy, Jefferson played more than 70% of snaps just twice in the first six weeks. Jefferson would likely need another Rams injury to either Kupp or Woods to reach WR2 status. But even with the status quo, he could have deeper-league flex value on par with Christian Kirk.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Jamal Agnew, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

2%/2%

Agnew didn't offer a lot of bang for the buck of his 12 Sunday targets. He had just six catches and 38 yards and typically won't salvage similar performances with a touchdown like he did in Week 8. But Agnew did solidify his role as Laviska Shenault's slot replacement with Shenault playing more outside in place of an injured DJ Chark. Since Chark's injury, Agnew has vaulted from snap shares consistently below 14% to those consistently above 59%. And he has bested his teammates Shenault and Marvin Jones with a 20.8% versus 13.6% and 17.6% target shares since the Chark injury.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Scottie Phillips, RB, Houston Texans

0%/0%

A week removed, the Mark Ingram trade seems unlikely to transform any of his former Texans teammates into consistent fantasy options. Phillips, Phillip Lindsay, David Johnson, and Rex Burkhead all played between 13% and 49% of snaps on Sunday and provided little production. In shallow formats, your best bet will be to avoid this backfield entirely. But in deeper and dynasty formats, Phillips has piqued my interest. He is the only member of the current rotation with any potential future with the team. Lindsay, Johnson, and Burkhead are 27, 29, and 31 years old and in the final years of contracts. Phillips is 24 years old and will be a restricted free agent this offseason. The Texans may want to try him out. That's unlikely to amount to anything. Phillips was an undrafted free agent out of Ole Miss in 2020. But he was also a juco standout who has experience as a zone runner and just two years of tape at a Division I school. And scouts touted Phillips for his instincts as a runner. His profile is a relatively common one among the later-round running back breakouts.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Mike White, QB, New York Jets

1%/2%

White was a fantasy force in his debut. He completed 82% of his passes and 2.1% more than expected per Next Gen Stats. He threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns. And he upset a Bengals team ranked ninth overall and fifth in defensive DVOA. But I'll need to see more to trust him as a fantasy option. White averaged a low 3.9 air yards per attempt on Sunday and benefited from 7.5 YAC per reception, putting him in the top five for the week. With former 49ers coaches Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur making the decisions, it's probably no coincidence that White was in a similar high range as Jimmy Garoppolo. But even the 49ers' quarterback-friendly offense seldom translates into fantasy value for Jimmy G. White wouldn't be the first late-round draft pick and injury substitute to become a star. Tom Brady and Dak Prescott are a pair of decent examples. But until I see more from him, I'll save my FAB money and bet instead on rookie Zach Wilson reclaiming his starting job when he returns from his knee injury in a few weeks.

Recommended FAB bid (% of maximum): 1%
Should you use your No. 1 waiver priority on him: No

Players on More Than 80% of Rosters to Add

Cordarrelle Patterson, RB/WR, Atlanta Falcons (96%/93%)
Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (93%/92%)
Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens (92%/93%)
Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins (92%/92%)
Antonio Brown, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (91%/93%)
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers (90%/93%)
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears (89%/92%)
Chase Claypool, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (89%/90%)
Damien Harris, RB, New England Patriots (88%/96%)
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (87%/94%)
Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (87%/91%)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (86%/91%)
Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys (86%/86%)
Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (86%/82%)
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos (84%/88%)
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers (82%/82%)
Khalil Herbert, RB, Chicago Bears (79%/81%)
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos (78%/85%)
Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals (73%/86%)

Players on More Than 20% of Rosters You Can Drop

Derek Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (100%/100%)
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (87%/80%)
Odell Beckham, WR, Cleveland Browns (81%/74%)
Mike Davis, RB, Atlanta Falcons (75%/78%)
Robert Tonyan, TE, Green Bay Packers (74%/62%)
Robby Anderson, WR, Carolina Panthers (67%/54%)
Jamaal Williams, RB, Detroit Lions (60%/57%)
Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Washington Football Team (49%/43%)
Marquez Callaway, WR, New Orleans Saints (42%/41%)
Damien Williams, RB, Chicago Bears (35%/26%)
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (33%/19%)
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (32%/46%)
Sony Michel, RB, Los Angeles Rams (30%/35%)
DJ Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (30%/17%)
Ronald Jones, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (27%/25%)
Sam Darnold, QB, Carolina Panthers (26%/32%)
Trey Sermon, RB, San Francisco 49ers (22%/29%)
Taylor Heinicke, QB, Washington Football Team (21%/14%)

Comments

15 comments, Last at 08 Nov 2021, 11:24am

1 The other thing about Carter…

The other thing about Carter is that Mekhi Becton should be coming back in a game or two, which will help the running game at least.  However, if Wilson does take the starting job back, that receiving yardage will dry up unless Wilson can take what the defense gives him, which he hasn't this year.

12 Jets QB

Most likely what going to happen is there going to play for the QB spot and Mike white is looking like he the best option for the job. IMO Carter is a clear RB2 ROS. Too Much upside to pass on.

2 I have heard this in the…

I have heard this in the podcasts already, but you do not seem to know how to spell (and consequently pronounce) "Tagovailoa". Thought someone should tell you :D

3 Seriously?

How thin a league must you be playing in where Carter is not rostered by somebody?

11 +1

In reply to by LyleNM

He's been rostered for a long time in mine. 

9 Re: McNichols

I wouldn't bid on McNichols except in deeper formats. I don't expect his role to expand dramatically from his current one as a receiving back.

6 Hunter Renfrow

Hunter Renfrow is seeing a catchable target on 15.4% of his snaps and he converts that into 2.28 PPR points per CT. He should be a fantasy monster. If they would play him more than 57% of the snaps he would be Cooper Kupp Lite

13 Re: Renfrow

In reply to by TyWill40

He definitely could become a fantasy standout especially after the team released Henry Ruggs. With an update, I have Renfrow 30th among WRs this week in PPR formats, and that's with a slightly down matchup.

7 Analysis on Boston Scott /…

Analysis on Boston Scott / Kenny Gainwell is very bad. Week 8 Kenny G got almost all his touches in garbage time -- Eagles don't trust him as a lead back because he can't block. Scott is a useable RB2/RB3 filler if Sanders is out; Kenny G has the same limited usage as a Nyheim Hines or Gio Bernard regardless of Sanders injury.

8 What do y'all think: best QB…

What do y'all think: best QB to have rostered for the fantasy playoffs?  (I am 5-3 and pretty confident to make playoffs).

I own Russell Wilson & Trey Lance. (And have been streaming Daniel Jones, while Wilson recovers)

Justin Fields and Taysom Hill on the wire.  

Who scores the most in Wk 15-17?  

To me, Lance seems like he has the softest fantasy playoff schedule and the potential to run a lot those weeks - but not guarantee he actually starts late in the season.  Seems the best stash, but the least reliable.

 

14 Re: Fantasy playoffs QB

Hey, Sifter. Here are my projected fantasy points for those QBs in Weeks 15-17 following my update this morning:

Taysom Hill 57.8
Russell Wilson 51.7
Daniel Jones 49.2
Trey Lance 43.5
Justin Fields 33.5

That assumes all five QBs are starting all of those games, which is no guarantee as you expressed.  But the projections really like Hill based on his fantasy performance as a starter over four games last season.  Since Lance has played a lot less, the projections regress his to-date production pretty substantially.  Hope that helps.